1. Temperature-related mortality in China from specific injury
- Author
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Jianxiong Hu, Guanhao He, Ruilin Meng, Weiwei Gong, Zhoupeng Ren, Heng Shi, Ziqiang Lin, Tao Liu, Fangfang Zeng, Peng Yin, Guoxia Bai, Mingfang Qin, Zhulin Hou, Xiaomei Dong, Chunliang Zhou, Zhuoma Pingcuo, Yize Xiao, Min Yu, Biao Huang, Xiaojun Xu, Lifeng Lin, Jianpeng Xiao, Jieming Zhong, Donghui Jin, Qinglong Zhao, Yajie Li, Cangjue Gama, Yiqing Xu, Lingshuang Lv, Weilin Zeng, Xing Li, Liying Luo, Maigeng Zhou, Cunrui Huang, and Wenjun Ma
- Subjects
Multidisciplinary ,General Physics and Astronomy ,General Chemistry ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology - Abstract
Injury poses heavy burden on public health, accounting for nearly 8% of all deaths globally, but little evidence on the role of climate change on injury exists. We collect data during 2013-2019 in six provinces of China to examine the effects of temperature on injury mortality, and to project future mortality burden attributable to temperature change driven by climate change based on the assumption of constant injury mortality and population scenario. The results show that a 0.50% (95% confident interval (CI): 0.13%–0.88%) increase of injury mortality risk for each 1 °C rise in daily temperature, with higher risk for intentional injury (1.13%, 0.55%–1.71%) than that for unintentional injury (0.40%, 0.04%–0.77%). Compared to the 2010s, total injury deaths attributable to temperature change in China would increase 156,586 (37,654–272,316) in the 2090 s under representative concentration pathways 8.5 scenario with the highest for transport injury (64,764, 8,517–115,743). Populations living in Western China, people aged 15–69 years, and male may suffer more injury mortality burden from increased temperature caused by climate change. Our findings may be informative for public health policy development to effectively adapt to climate change.
- Published
- 2023
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