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Short-term demand forecasting for on-demand ride-hailing services is one of the fundamental issues in intelligent transportation systems. However, previous travel demand forecasting research predominantly focused on improving prediction accuracy, ignoring fairness issues such as systematic underestimations of travel demand in disadvantaged neighborhoods. This study investigates how to measure, evaluate, and enhance prediction fairness between disadvantaged and privileged communities in spatial-temporal demand forecasting of ride-hailing services. A two-pronged approach is taken to reduce the demand prediction bias. First, we develop a novel deep learning model architecture, named socially aware neural network (SA-Net), to integrate the socio-demographics and ridership information for fair demand prediction through an innovative socially-aware convolution operation. Second, we propose a bias-mitigation regularization method to mitigate the mean percentage prediction error gap between different groups. The experimental results, validated on the real-world Chicago Transportation Network Company (TNC) data, show that the de-biasing SA-Net can achieve better predictive performance in both prediction accuracy and fairness. Specifically, the SA-Net improves prediction accuracy for both the disadvantaged and privileged groups compared with the state-of-the-art models. When coupled with the bias mitigation regularization method, the de-biasing SA-Net effectively bridges the mean percentage prediction error gap between the disadvantaged and privileged groups, and also protects the disadvantaged regions against systematic underestimation of TNC demand. Our proposed de-biasing method can be adopted in many existing short-term travel demand estimation models, and can be utilized for various other spatial-temporal prediction tasks such as crime incidents predictions.

Recent studies have significantly improved the prediction accuracy of travel demand using graph neural networks. However, these studies largely ignored uncertainty that inevitably exists in travel demand prediction. To fill this gap, this study proposes a framework of probabilistic graph neural networks (Prob-GNN) to quantify the spatiotemporal uncertainty of travel demand. This Prob-GNN framework is substantiated by deterministic and probabilistic assumptions, and empirically applied to the task of predicting the transit and ridesharing demand in Chicago. We found that the probabilistic assumptions (e.g. distribution tail, support) have a greater impact on uncertainty prediction than the deterministic ones (e.g. deep modules, depth). Among the family of Prob-GNNs, the GNNs with truncated Gaussian and Laplace distributions achieve the highest performance in transit and ridesharing data. Even under significant domain shifts, Prob-GNNs can predict the ridership uncertainty in a stable manner, when the models are trained on pre-COVID data and tested across multiple periods during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Prob-GNNs also reveal the spatiotemporal pattern of uncertainty, which is concentrated on the afternoon peak hours and the areas with large travel volumes. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of incorporating randomness into deep learning for spatiotemporal ridership prediction. Future research should continue to investigate versatile probabilistic assumptions to capture behavioral randomness, and further develop methods to quantify uncertainty to build resilient cities.

crucial for transportation management. However, traditional spatial-temporal deep learning models grapple with addressing the sparse and long-tail characteristics in high-resolution O-D matrices and quantifying prediction uncertainty. This dilemma arises from the numerous zeros and over-dispersed demand patterns within these matrices, which challenge the Gaussian assumption inherent to deterministic deep learning models. To address these challenges, we propose a novel approach: the Spatial-Temporal Tweedie Graph Neural Network (STTD). The STTD introduces the Tweedie distribution as a compelling alternative to the traditional 'zero-inflated' model and leverages spatial and temporal embeddings to parameterize travel demand distributions. Our evaluations using real-world datasets highlight STTD's superiority in providing accurate predictions and precise confidence intervals, particularly in high-resolution scenarios., Comment: In submission to CIKM 2023

Traffic data serves as a fundamental component in both research and applications within intelligent transportation systems. However, real-world transportation data, collected from loop detectors or similar sources, often contain missing values (MVs), which can adversely impact associated applications and research. Instead of discarding this incomplete data, researchers have sought to recover these missing values through numerical statistics, tensor decomposition, and deep learning techniques. In this paper, we propose an innovative deep-learning approach for imputing missing data. A graph attention architecture is employed to capture the spatial correlations present in traffic data, while a bidirectional neural network is utilized to learn temporal information. Experimental results indicate that our proposed method outperforms all other benchmark techniques, thus demonstrating its effectiveness., Comment: In submission to IEEE-ITSC 2023

The Braess's Paradox (BP) is the observation that adding one or more roads to the existing road network will counter-intuitively increase traffic congestion and slow down the overall traffic flow. Previously, the existence of the BP is modeled using the static traffic assignment model, which solves for the user equilibrium subject to network flow conservation to find the equilibrium state and distributes all vehicles instantaneously. Such approach neglects the dynamic nature of real-world traffic, including vehicle behaviors and the interaction between vehicles and the infrastructure. As such, this article proposes a dynamic traffic network model and empirically validates the existence of the BP under dynamic traffic. In particular, we use microsimulation environment to study the impacts of an added path on a grid network. We explore how the network flow, vehicle travel time, and network capacity respond, as well as when the BP will occur., Accepted by 2022 IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference (ITSC): https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/9921998

Time series forecasting and spatiotemporal kriging are the two most important tasks in spatiotemporal data analysis. Recent research on graph neural networks has made substantial progress in time series forecasting, while little attention has been paid to the kriging problem -- recovering signals for unsampled locations/sensors. Most existing scalable kriging methods (e.g., matrix/tensor completion) are transductive, and thus full retraining is required when we have a new sensor to interpolate. In this paper, we develop an Inductive Graph Neural Network Kriging (IGNNK) model to recover data for unsampled sensors on a network/graph structure. To generalize the effect of distance and reachability, we generate random subgraphs as samples and reconstruct the corresponding adjacency matrix for each sample. By reconstructing all signals on each sample subgraph, IGNNK can effectively learn the spatial message passing mechanism. Empirical results on several real-world spatiotemporal datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model. In addition, we also find that the learned model can be successfully transferred to the same type of kriging tasks on an unseen dataset. Our results show that: 1) GNN is an efficient and effective tool for spatial kriging; 2) inductive GNNs can be trained using dynamic adjacency matrices; 3) a trained model can be transferred to new graph structures and 4) IGNNK can be used to generate virtual sensors., AAAI 2021

Spatiotemporal kriging is an important application in spatiotemporal data analysis, aiming to recover/interpolate signals for unsampled/unobserved locations based on observed signals. The principle challenge for spatiotemporal kriging is how to effectively model and leverage the spatiotemporal dependencies within the data. Recently, graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown great promise for spatiotemporal kriging tasks. However, standard GNNs often require a carefully designed adjacency matrix and specific aggregation functions, which are inflexible for general applications/problems. To address this issue, we present SATCN -- Spatial Aggregation and Temporal Convolution Networks -- a universal and flexible framework to perform spatiotemporal kriging for various spatiotemporal datasets without the need for model specification. Specifically, we propose a novel spatial aggregation network (SAN) inspired by Principal Neighborhood Aggregation, which uses multiple aggregation functions to help one node gather diverse information from its neighbors. To exclude information from unsampled nodes, a masking strategy that prevents the unsampled sensors from sending messages to their neighborhood is introduced to SAN. We capture temporal dependencies by the temporal convolutional networks, which allows our model to cope with data of diverse sizes. To make SATCN generalizable to unseen nodes and even unseen graph structures, we employ an inductive strategy to train SATCN. We conduct extensive experiments on three real-world spatiotemporal datasets, including traffic speed and climate recordings. Our results demonstrate the superiority of SATCN over traditional and GNN-based kriging models.