1. Uncertainty Quantification via Spatial-Temporal Tweedie Model for Zero-inflated and Long-tail Travel Demand Prediction
- Author
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Jiang, Xinke, Zhuang, Dingyi, Zhang, Xianghui, Chen, Hao, Luo, Jiayuan, and Gao, Xiaowei
- Subjects
FOS: Computer and information sciences ,Computer Science - Machine Learning ,Statistics - Other Statistics ,Statistics - Machine Learning ,Other Statistics (stat.OT) ,Machine Learning (stat.ML) ,Machine Learning (cs.LG) - Abstract
crucial for transportation management. However, traditional spatial-temporal deep learning models grapple with addressing the sparse and long-tail characteristics in high-resolution O-D matrices and quantifying prediction uncertainty. This dilemma arises from the numerous zeros and over-dispersed demand patterns within these matrices, which challenge the Gaussian assumption inherent to deterministic deep learning models. To address these challenges, we propose a novel approach: the Spatial-Temporal Tweedie Graph Neural Network (STTD). The STTD introduces the Tweedie distribution as a compelling alternative to the traditional 'zero-inflated' model and leverages spatial and temporal embeddings to parameterize travel demand distributions. Our evaluations using real-world datasets highlight STTD's superiority in providing accurate predictions and precise confidence intervals, particularly in high-resolution scenarios., Comment: In submission to CIKM 2023
- Published
- 2023
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