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Subpolar overturning in the North Atlantic Ocean shows substantial seasonality, with a maximum in late spring, a minimum in early winter, and a total range of about 9 Sv, according to observations from the OSNAP array between 2014 and 2020. Understanding the variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is essential for better predictions of our changing climate. Here we present an updated time series (August 2014 to June 2020) from the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program. The 6-year time series allows us to observe the seasonality of the subpolar overturning and meridional heat and freshwater transports. The overturning peaks in late spring and reaches a minimum in early winter, with a peak-to-trough range of 9.0 Sv. The overturning seasonal timing can be explained by winter transformation and the export of dense water, modulated by a seasonally varying Ekman transport. Furthermore, over 55% of the total meridional freshwater transport variability can be explained by its seasonality, largely owing to overturning dynamics. Our results provide the first observational analysis of seasonality in the subpolar North Atlantic overturning and highlight its important contribution to the total overturning variability observed to date.

The dynamics of the deep recirculation offshore of the deep western boundary current (DWBC) between 15° and 30°N within the upper North Atlantic Deep Water layer (1000 ≤ z ≤ 3000 m) is investigated with two different eddy-resolving numerical simulations. Despite some differences in the recirculation cells, our assessment of the modeled deep isopycnal circulation patterns (36.77 ≤ σ2 ≤ 37.06 kg m−3) shows that both simulations predict the DWBC flowing southward along the continental slope, while the so-called Abaco Gyre and two additional cyclonic cells recirculate waters northward in the interior. These cells are a few degrees wide, located along the DWBC path, and characterized by potential vorticity (PV) changes occurring along their mean streamlines. The analysis of the mean PV budget reveals that these changes result from the action of eddy forcing that tends to erode the PV horizontal gradients. The lack of a major upper-ocean boundary current within the study region, and the fact that the strongest eddy forcing is constrained within a few hundreds of kilometers of the western boundary, suggest that the DWBC is the primary source of eddy forcing. Finally, the eddies responsible for forcing the recirculation have dominant time scales between 100 and 300 days, which correspond to the primary observed variability scales of the DWBC transport at 26.5°N.

The mean North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW, 1000 < z < 5000 m) circulation and deep western boundary current (DWBC) variability offshore of Abaco, Bahamas, at 26.5°N are investigated from nearly two decades of velocity and hydrographic observations, and outputs from a 30-yr-long eddy-resolving global simulation. Observations at 26.5°N and Argo-derived geostrophic velocities show the presence of a mean Abaco Gyre spanning the NADW layer, consisting of a closed cyclonic circulation between approximately 24° and 30°N and 72° and 77°W. The southward-flowing portion of this gyre (the DWBC) is constrained to within ~150 km of the western boundary with a mean transport of ~30 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). Offshore of the DWBC, the data show a consistent northward recirculation with net transports varying from 6.5 to 16 Sv. Current meter records spanning 2008–17 supported by the numerical simulation indicate that the DWBC transport variability is dominated by two distinct types of fluctuations: 1) periods of 250–280 days that occur regularly throughout the time series and 2) energetic oscillations with periods between 400 and 700 days that occur sporadically every 5–6 years and force the DWBC to meander far offshore for several months. The shorter-period variations are related to DWBC meandering caused by eddies propagating southward along the continental slope at 24°–30°N, while the longer-period oscillations appear to be related to large anticyclonic eddies that slowly propagate northwestward counter to the DWBC flow between ~20° and 26.5°N. Observational and theoretical evidence suggest that these two types of variability might be generated, respectively, by DWBC instability processes and Rossby waves reflecting from the western boundary.

State of the climate in 2019

Loop Current Frontal Eddies (LCFEs) are known to intensify and assist in the Loop Current (LC) eddy shedding. These eddies can also modify the circulation in the eastern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) by attracting water and passive tracers such as chlorophyll and pollutants to the LC-LCFE front. During the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, part of the oil was entrained not only in the LC-LCFE front but also inside an LCFE, where it remained for weeks. This study assesses the ability of the LCFEs to transport water and passive tracers without exchange with the exterior (i.e., Lagrangian coherence) using altimetry and a high-resolution model. The following open questions are answered: (1) How long can the LCFEs remain Lagrangian coherent at and below the surface? (2) What is the source of water for the formation of LCFEs? (3) Can the formation of LCFEs attract shelf water? The results show that LCFEs are composed of waters originating from the outer band of the LC front, the region north of the LC, and the shelf, and potentially drive cross-shelf exchange of particles, water properties, and nutrients. At depth (~180 m), most LCFE water comes from the outer band of the LC front in the form of smaller frontal eddies. Once formed, LCFEs can transport water and passive tracers in their interior without exchange with the exterior for weeks: these eddies remained Lagrangian coherent for up to 25 days in the altimetry dataset and 18 days at the surface and 29 days at depth (~180 m) in the simulation. LCFE can remain Lagrangian coherent up to a depth of ~560 m. Additional analyses confirm that the LCFE involved in the oil spill formed from water near the oil rig location. Temperature-salinity diagrams show that LCFEs are composed of GoM water as opposed to LC water. Thus, LCFE formation modify the surrounding circulation and the transport of oil and other passive tracers in the eastern GoM.

In this study, mechanisms causing year-to-year changes in the Florida Current seasonality are investigated using controlled realistic numerical experiments designed to isolate the western boundary responses to westward-propagating open ocean signals. The experiments reveal two distinct processes by which westward-propagating signals can modulate the phase of the Florida Current variability, which we refer to as the “direct” and “indirect” response mechanisms. The direct response mechanism involves a two-stage response to open ocean anticyclonic eddies characterized by the direct influence of Rossby wave barotropic anomalies and baroclinic wall jets that propagate through Northwest Providence Channel. In the indirect response mechanism, open ocean signals act as small perturbations to the stochastic Gulf Stream variability downstream, which are then transmitted upstream to the Florida Straits through baroclinic coastally trapped signals that can rapidly travel along the U.S. East Coast. Experiments indicate that westward-propagating eddies play a key role in modulating the phase of the Florida Current variability, but not the amplitude, which is determined by its intrinsic variability in our simulations. Results from this study further suggest that the Antilles Current may act as a semipermeable barrier to incoming signals, favoring the interaction through the indirect response mechanism. The mechanisms reported here can be potentially linked to year-to-year changes in the seasonality of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and may also be present in other western boundary current systems.

The Mediterranean Sea can be viewed as a “barometer” of the North Atlantic Ocean, because its sea level responds to oceanic-gyre-scale changes in atmospheric pressure and wind forcing, related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The climate of the North Atlantic is influenced by the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) as it transports heat from the South Atlantic toward the subpolar North Atlantic. This study reports on a teleconnection between the AMOC transport measured at 26.5°N and the Mediterranean Sea level during 2004–17: a reduced/increased AMOC transport is associated with a higher/lower sea level in the Mediterranean. Processes responsible for this teleconnection are analyzed in detail using available satellite and in situ observations and an atmospheric reanalysis. First, it is shown that on monthly to interannual time scales the AMOC and sea level are both driven by similar NAO-like atmospheric circulation patterns. During a positive/negative NAO state, stronger/weaker trade winds (i) drive northward/southward anomalies of Ekman transport across 26.5°N that directly affect the AMOC and (ii) are associated with westward/eastward winds over the Strait of Gibraltar that force water to flow out of/into the Mediterranean Sea and thus change its average sea level. Second, it is demonstrated that interannual changes in the AMOC transport can lead to thermosteric sea level anomalies near the North Atlantic eastern boundary. These anomalies can (i) reach the Strait of Gibraltar and cause sea level changes in the Mediterranean Sea and (ii) represent a mechanism for negative feedback on the AMOC.

Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which have the potential to drive societally-important climate impacts, have traditionally been linked to the strength of deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic. Yet there is neither clear observational evidence nor agreement among models about how changes in deep water formation influence overturning. Here, we use data from a trans-basin mooring array (OSNAP—Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program) to show that winter convection during 2014–2018 in the interior basin had minimal impact on density changes in the deep western boundary currents in the subpolar basins. Contrary to previous modeling studies, we find no discernable relationship between western boundary changes and subpolar overturning variability over the observational time scales. Our results require a reconsideration of the notion of deep western boundary changes representing overturning characteristics, with implications for constraining the source of overturning variability within and downstream of the subpolar region., Western boundary current variability in the subpolar North Atlantic is thought to reflect interior convection changes and determine Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability. Here, the authors show with an extended OSNAP time series that neither linkage is robust due to the complex dynamics in the region.

Outflows of low-salinity waters from the Arctic to the upper layers of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) are central in redistributing freshwater from river runoff, melting sea ice, and precipitation. They act to reduce shallow, as well as deep, convection; thereby affecting both biological production and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The two main sources of low-salinity water to the SPNA are the flows through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and through the Denmark Strait. A potential additional source of low-salinity water is the shelf/slope region south of Iceland, mainly fed by Icelandic runoff. Normally this water passes into the Nordic Seas, but in some periods, it may instead flow into the upper layers of the central parts of the Iceland Basin in the eastern SPNA. This low-salinity water has previously been overlooked as a freshwater supply to the SPNA. Using a range of observational data sets, we show that the conditions for a diversion of this water mass from the south Iceland shelf into the Iceland Basin were favourable during the 2014–2018 period. In those years the Iceland Basin became extraordinarily fresh, characterized by surface salinity lower than previously seen in a 120-year long time series. The event is thought to have been mainly caused by unusual winter wind stress patterns that diverted freshwater from the western SPNA to the eastern basin and caused a zonal shift of the subpolar front. Here, we show that the low-salinity signal near the surface was locally reinforced in the central Iceland Basin by anomalous diversion of low-salinity water originating in the shallow shelf areas south of Iceland and that this can help explain why the surface salinity of the Iceland Basin became so exceptionally low. The diversion was generated by anomalous wind conditions over the Iceland Basin and caused slightly enhanced freshening of the warm waters crossing the Greenland-Scotland Ridge from the SPNA into the Nordic Seas. The low-salinity Icelandic-source water also increased the near-surface stratification and reduced the depth of convection in the Iceland Basin during two consecutive winters with reduced nutrient renewal of near-surface waters as a consequence. Although especially pronounced after 2014, this extra freshwater input probably occurs more generally, which may help explain why the central Iceland Basin may be an oligotrophic region, as has previously been suggested.

Continuous measurements from the OSNAP (Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program) array yield the first estimates of trans-basin heat and salinity transports in the subpolar latitudes. For the period from August 2014 to May 2018, there is a poleward heat transport of 0.50 ± 0.05 PW and a poleward salinity transport of 12.5 ± 1.0 Sv across the OSNAP section. Based on the mass and salt budget analyses, we estimate that a surface freshwater input of 0.36 ± 0.05 Sv over the broad subpolar-Arctic region is needed to balance the ocean salinity change created by the OSNAP transports. The overturning circulation is largely responsible for setting these heat and salinity transports (and the derived surface freshwater input) derived from the OSNAP array, while the gyre (isopycnal) circulation contributes to a lesser, but still significant, extent. Despite its relatively weak overturning and heat transport, the Labrador Sea is a strong contributor to salinity and freshwater changes in the subpolar region. Combined with trans-basin transport estimates at other locations, we provide new estimates for the time-mean surface heat and freshwater divergences over a wide domain of the Arctic-North Atlantic region to the north and south of the OSNAP line. Furthermore, we estimate the total heat and freshwater exchanges across the surface area of the extratropical North Atlantic between the OSNAP and the RAPID-MOCHA (RAPID Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heat-flux Array) arrays, by combining the cross-sectional transports with vertically-integrated ocean heat and salinity content. Comparisons with the air-sea heat and freshwater fluxes from atmospheric reanalysis products show an overall consistency, yet with notable differences in the magnitudes during the observation time period.

The Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation is important to the climate system because it carries heat and carbon northward, and from the surface to the deep ocean. The high salinity of the subpolar North Atlantic is a prerequisite for overturning circulation, and strong freshening could herald a slowdown. We show that the eastern subpolar North Atlantic underwent extreme freshening during 2012 to 2016, with a magnitude never seen before in 120 years of measurements. The cause was unusual winter wind patterns driving major changes in ocean circulation, including slowing of the North Atlantic Current and diversion of Arctic freshwater from the western boundary into the eastern basins. We find that wind-driven routing of Arctic-origin freshwater intimately links conditions on the North West Atlantic shelf and slope region with the eastern subpolar basins. This reveals the importance of atmospheric forcing of intra-basin circulation in determining the salinity of the subpolar North Atlantic., The Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation is important to the global climate system. Here the authors show that eastern subpolar North Atlantic underwent extreme freshening during 2012 to 2016, with a magnitude never seen before in 120 years of surface measurements.

The strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 26∘ N has now been continuously measured by the RAPID array over the period April 2004–September 2018. This record provides unique insight into the variability of the large-scale ocean circulation, previously only measured by sporadic snapshots of basin-wide transport from hydrographic sections. The continuous measurements have unveiled striking variability on timescales of days to a decade, driven largely by wind forcing, contrasting with previous expectations about a slowly varying buoyancy-forced large-scale ocean circulation. However, these measurements were primarily observed during a warm state of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) which has been steadily declining since a peak in 2008–2010. In 2013–2015, a period of strong buoyancy forcing by the atmosphere drove intense water-mass transformation in the subpolar North Atlantic and provides a unique opportunity to investigate the response of the large-scale ocean circulation to buoyancy forcing. Modelling studies suggest that the AMOC in the subtropics responds to such events with an increase in overturning transport, after a lag of 3–9 years. At 45∘ N, observations suggest that the AMOC may already be increasing. Examining 26∘ N, we find that the AMOC is no longer weakening, though the recent transport is not above the long-term mean. Extending the record backwards in time at 26∘ N with ocean reanalysis from GloSea5, the transport fluctuations at 26∘ N are consistent with a 0- to 2-year lag from those at 45∘ N, albeit with lower magnitude. Given the short span of time and anticipated delays in the signal from the subpolar to subtropical gyres, it is not yet possible to determine whether the subtropical AMOC strength is recovering nor how the AMOC at 26∘ N responds to intense buoyancy forcing.

Multiple studies have shown that reduced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling occurs under tropical cyclones (TCs) where a fresh surface layer and subsurface halocline exist. Reduced SST cooling in these scenarios has been attributed to a barrier layer, an upper-ocean feature in the tropical global oceans in which a halocline resides within the isothermal mixed layer. Because upper-ocean stratification theoretically reduces ocean mixing induced by winds, the barrier layer is thought to reduce SST cooling during TC passage, sustaining heat and moisture fluxes into the storm. This research examines how both the inclusion of salinity and upper-ocean salinity stratification influences SST cooling for a variety of upper-ocean thermal regimes using one-dimensional (1D) ocean mixed layer (OML) models. The Kraus–Turner, Price–Weller–Pinkel, and Pollard–Rhines–Thompson 1D OML schemes are used to examine SST cooling and OML deepening during 30 m s−1 wind forcing (~category 1 TC) for both temperature-only and temperature–salinity stratification cases. Generally, the inclusion of salinity (a barrier layer) reduces SST cooling for all temperature regimes. However, results suggest that SST cooling sensitivities exist depending on thermal regime, salinity stratification, and the 1D OML model used. Upper-ocean thermal and haline characteristics are put into context of SST cooling with the creation of a barrier layer baroclinic wave speed to emphasize the influence of salinity stratification on upper-ocean response under TC wind forcing.

The structure and variability of the Florida Current between 25-26°N are investigated using HF radar ocean current measurements to provide the most detailed view of the surface jet to date. A 2-D jet-coordinate analysis is performed to define lateral displacements of the jet in time (meandering), and associated structural variations over a 2-year period (2005-2006). In the jet-coordinate frame, core speed has a median value of ∼160 cm s−1 at the central latitude of the array (25.4°N), with a standard deviation (STD) of 35 cm s−1. The jet meanders at timescales of 3-30 days, with a STD of 8 km, and a downstream phase speed of ∼80 km day−1. Meandering accounts for ∼45% of eddy kinetic energy computed in a fixed (geographical) reference frame. Core speed, width, and shear undergo the same dominant 3-30 day variability, plus an annual cycle that matches seasonality of alongshore wind stress. Jet transport at 25.5°N exhibits a different seasonality to volume transport at 27°N, most likely driven by input from the Northwest Providence Channel. Core speed correlates inversely with Miami sea level fluctuations such that a 40 cm s−1 deceleration is associated with a ∼10 cm elevation in sea level, although there is no correlation of sea level to jet meandering or width. Accurately quantifying the Florida Current's variability is critical to understand and forecast future changes in the climate system of the North Atlantic, as well as local impacts on coastal circulation and sea level variability along south Florida's coastline.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key process in the global redistribution of heat. The AMOC is defined as the maximum of the overturning stream function, which typically occurs near 30°N in the North Atlantic. The RAPID mooring array has provided full-depth, basinwide, continuous estimates of this quantity since 2004. Motivated by both the need to deliver near real-time data and optimization of the array to reduce costs, we consider alternative configurations of the mooring array. Results suggest that the variability observed since 2004 could be reproduced by a single tall mooring on the western boundary and a mooring to 1500 m on the eastern boundary. We consider the potential future evolution of the AMOC in two generations of the Hadley Centre climate models and a suite of additional CMIP5 models. The modeling studies show that deep, basinwide measurements are essential to capture correctly the future decline of the AMOC. We conclude that, while a reduced array could be useful for estimates of the AMOC on subseasonal to decadal time scales as part of a near real-time data delivery system, extreme caution must be applied to avoid the potential misinterpretation or absence of a climate time scale AMOC decline that is a key motivation for the maintenance of these observations.

The strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 26° N has now been continuously measured by the RAPID array over the period Apr 2004–Sept 2018. This record provides unique insight into the variability of the large-scale ocean circulation, previously only measured by sporadic snapshots of basin-wide transports from hydrographic sections. The continuous measurements have unveiled striking variability on timescales of days to a decade, driven largely by wind-forcing, contrasting with previous expectations about a slowly-varying, buoyancy forced large-scale ocean circulation. However, these measurements were primarily observed during a warm state of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) which has been steadily declining since a peak in 2008–2010. In 2013–2015, a period of strong buoyancy-forcing by the atmosphere drove intense watermass transformation in the subpolar North Atlantic and provides a unique opportunity to investigate the response of the large-scale ocean circulation to buoyancy forcing. Modelling studies suggest that the AMOC in the subtropics responds to such events with an increase in overturning transport, after a lag of 3–9 years. At 45° N, observations suggest that the AMOC my already be increasing. We have therefore examined the record of transports at 26° N to see whether the AMOC in the subtropical North Atlantic is now recovering from a previously reported low period commencing in 2009. Comparing the two latitudes, the AMOC at 26° N is higher than its previous low. Extending the record at 26° N with ocean reanalysis from GloSea5, the transport fluctuations follow those at 45° N by 0–2 years, albeit with lower magnitude. Given the short span of time and anticipated delays in the signal from the subpolar to subtropical gyres, it is not yet possible to determine whether the subtropical AMOC strength is recovering.

Observations from five different systems provide a robust picture of the structure and variability of the Antilles Current, an important contributor to the oceanic flux budget, at 26.5°N during 2005–2015. The analysis includes three direct measurement technologies (current meters, shipboard acoustic Doppler current profilers, and lowered acoustic Doppler current profilers) and two geostrophy‐based measurement technologies (conductivity‐temperature‐depth profilers and pressure‐equipped inverted echo sounders). The direct systems are shown to produce weaker, and less variable, Antilles Current transport estimates than the geostrophy‐based systems. The record‐length‐mean geostrophic estimate for the Antilles Current is 4.7 Sverdrups (Sv; 1 Sv = 106 m3/s), and the daily temporal standard deviation is 7.5 Sv. The variations of the Antilles Current transport exceed those of the entire basin‐wide meridional overturning circulation, illustrating the impact of this unusual current. Seasonal variability shows a maximum northward transport in August–September; however, the seasonal component of the variability is weak, and aliasing of higher frequencies is still a problem even with 10.5 years of data. The dominant time scales of variability in the spectra are at 70 and 180 days, and there is indication of westward propagation of Rossby Wave‐like features into the region at a speed of 9 cm/s. There is no significant correlation between the Antilles Current transport variations and those of the Florida Current at 27°N, in phase or at lags/leads of up to 5 years, likely reflecting the varying coastal wave/wall jet time scales for information to pass from the basin interior through the Bahamas Islands.

This chapter reviews the various ways in which chemical bonding has been thought to develop in the formation of wood joints, and it discusses the implications, both positive and negative, real and perceived for the chemical bonding of wood. In work designed to generate chemical bonding of wood and paper, two general approaches have been used: either the application of heat alone or heat and chemical treatments together. Heat alone is an inviting process to consider for the improvement of a material. Because the speed of a process is so important, the application of heat is normally reserved for thin materials such as paper and thin fiberboards. There is no doubt that heat has a tremendous effect on the properties of lignocellulosic material. By applying the chemicals thought necessary to create active sites on the wood surface, invariably the wood materials away from the surface are affected. This chemical treatment severs existing wood bonds and creates shorter cellulose chains.

Response of the Black Sea elevation to intraseasonal sea level changes in the Mediterranean is studied using satellite altimetry data and a linear analytical model. Satellite observations show that the nonseasonal sea level in the Black Sea (η1) is coherent with that in the Aegean and Marmara Seas (η0) but lags behind them by 10–40 days at subannual periods. The observed time lag is mainly due to friction that constrains the exchange through the Bosphorus Strait. Using realistic friction and characteristic η0 forcing in the model, we find that the amplitude of η1 reaches the amplitude of η0 at about 1 year period, and the time lag increases from 10 to 22 days at periods 50–250 days. Freshwater fluxes, atmospheric pressure, and to a smaller extent the along-strait wind also influence the Black Sea elevation, but sea level fluctuations in the Mediterranean appear to be the dominant forcing mechanism.

Repeat glider sections obtained during 2014‐2016, as part of the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP), are used to quantify the circulation and transport of North Atlantic Current (NAC) branches over the Rockall Plateau. Using sixteen gliders sections collected along 58° N and between 21° W and 15° W, absolute geostrophic velocities are calculated and subsequently the horizontal and vertical structure of the transport are characterized. The annual mean northward transport (± standard deviation) is 5.1±3.2 Sv over the Rockall Plateau. During summer (May to October), the mean northward transport is stronger and reaches 6.7±2.6 Sv. This accounts for 43% of the total NAC transport of upper‐ocean waters (σO −3) estimated by Sarafanov et al. [2012] along 59.5° N, between the Reykjanes Ridge and Scotland. Two quasi‐permanent northward‐flowing branches of the NAC are identified: (i) the Hatton Bank Jet (6.3± 2.1 Sv) over the eastern flank of the Iceland Basin (20.5° W to 18.5° W); and (ii) the Rockall Bank Jet (1.5± 0.7 Sv) over the eastern flank of the Hatton‐Rockall Basin (16° W to 15° W). Transport associated with the Rockall Bank Jet is mostly depth‐independent during summer, while 30% of the Hatton Bank jet transport is due to vertical geostrophic shear. Uncertainties are estimated for each individual glider section using a Monte Carlo approach and mean uncertainties of the absolute transport are less than 0.5 Sv. Although comparisons with altimetry‐based estimates indicate similar large‐scale circulation patterns, altimetry data do not resolve small mesoscale current bands in the Hatton‐Rockall Basin which are strongly needed for the right transport estimates.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is responsible for a variable and climatically important northward transport of heat. Using data from an array of instruments that span the Atlantic at 26°N, we show that the AMOC has been in a state of reduced overturning since 2008 as compared to 2004–2008. This change of AMOC state is concurrent with other changes in the North Atlantic such as a northward shift and broadening of the Gulf Stream and altered patterns of heat content and sea surface temperature. These changes resemble the response to a declining AMOC predicted by coupled climate models. Concurrent changes in air‐sea fluxes close to the western boundary reveal that the changes in ocean heat transport and sea surface temperature have altered the pattern of ocean‐atmosphere heat exchange over the North Atlantic. These results provide strong observational evidence that the AMOC is a major factor in decadal‐scale variability of North Atlantic climate.

Results from two 1/12° eddy-resolving simulations, together with data-based transport estimates at 26.5°N and 41°N, are used to investigate the temporal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) during 2004–2012. There is a good agreement between the model and the observation for all components of the AMOC at 26.5°N, whereas the agreement at 41°N is primarily due to the Ekman transport. We found that (1) both observations and model results exhibit higher AMOC variability on seasonal and shorter time scales than on interannual and longer time scales; (2) on intraseasonal and interannual time scales, the AMOC variability is often coherent over a wide latitudinal range, but lacks an overall consistent coherent pattern over the entire North Atlantic; and (3) on seasonal time scales, the AMOC variability exhibits two distinct coherent regimes north and south of 20°N, due to different wind stress variability in the tropics and subtropics. The high AMOC variability south of 20°N in the tropical Atlantic comes primarily from the Ekman transport of the near-surface water, and is modulated to some extent by the transport of the Antarctic Intermediate water below the thermocline. These results highlight the importance of the surface wind in driving the AMOC variability.

The dynamical processes governing the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are studied using a variety of models, ranging from a simple forced Rossby wave model to an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model. The AMOC variability is decomposed into Ekman and geostrophic transport components, which reveal that the seasonality of the AMOC is determined by both components in the extratropics and dominated by the Ekman transport in the tropics. The physics governing the seasonal fluctuations of the AMOC are explored in detail at three latitudes (26.5°N, 6°N, and 34.5°S). While the Ekman transport is directly related to zonal wind stress seasonality, the comparison between different numerical models shows that the geostrophic transport involves a complex oceanic adjustment to the wind forcing. The oceanic adjustment is further evaluated by separating the zonally integrated geostrophic transport into eastern and western boundary currents and interior flows. The results indicate that the seasonal AMOC cycle in the extratropics is controlled mainly by local boundary effects, where either the western or eastern boundary can be dominant at different latitudes, while in the northern tropics it is the interior flow and its lagged compensation by the western boundary current that determine the seasonal AMOC variability.

The observed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26.5°N shows interannual variability consisting of an increase from early 2004 to late 2005 and a following downtrend, which reaches a minimum in the winter of 2009/2010. These interannual AMOC fluctuations are dominated by changes in the upper mid-ocean geostrophic flow except during the winter of 2009/2010, when the anomalous wind-driven Ekman transport also has a significant contribution. The physical mechanisms for the interannual changes of the AMOC are proposed and evaluated in a two-layer model. While the Ekman transport is linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the anomalous geostrophic transport involves the oceanic adjustment to surface wind forcing. In particular, the intensification and weakening of the southward interior geostrophic flow is modulated by the internal Rossby wave adjustment to the surface wind forcing. The Gulf Stream, on the other hand, is controlled by both topographic waves along the US coast and westward propagating planetary waves. Our study suggests that a large part of the observed AMOC interannual variability at 26.5°N can be explained by wind-driven dynamics.

[1] Observations show that the upper 2 km of the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean cooled throughout 2010 and remained cold until at least December 2011. We show that these cold anomalies are partly driven by anomalous air‐sea exchange during the cold winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 and, more surprisingly, by extreme interannual variability in the ocean's northward heat transport at 26.5°N. This cooling driven by the ocean's meridional heat transport affects deeper layers isolated from the atmosphere on annual timescales and water that is entrained into the winter mixed layer thus lowering winter sea surface temperatures. Here we connect, for the first time, variability in the northward heat transport carried by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to widespread sustained cooling of the subtropical North Atlantic, challenging the prevailing view that the ocean plays a passive role in the coupled ocean‐atmosphere system on monthly‐to‐seasonal timescales.

The link at 26.5°N between the Atlantic meridional heat transport (MHT) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is investigated in two climate models, the GFDL Climate Model version 2.1 (CM2.1) and the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4), and compared with the recent observational estimates from the Rapid Climate Change–Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array (RAPID–MOCHA) array. Despite a stronger-than-observed MOC magnitude, both models underestimate the mean MHT at 26.5°N because of an overly diffuse thermocline. Biases result from errors in both overturning and gyre components of the MHT. The observed linear relationship between MHT and MOC at 26.5°N is realistically simulated by the two models and is mainly due to the overturning component of the MHT. Fluctuations in overturning MHT are dominated by Ekman transport variability in CM2.1 and CCSM4, whereas baroclinic geostrophic transport variability plays a larger role in RAPID. CCSM4, which has a parameterization of Nordic Sea overflows and thus a more realistic North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) penetration, shows smaller biases in the overturning heat transport than CM2.1 owing to deeper NADW at colder temperatures. The horizontal gyre heat transport and its sensitivity to the MOC are poorly represented in both models. The wind-driven gyre heat transport is northward in observations at 26.5°N, whereas it is weakly southward in both models, reducing the total MHT. This study emphasizes model biases that are responsible for the too-weak MHT, particularly at the western boundary. The use of direct MHT observations through RAPID allows for identification of the source of the too-weak MHT in the two models, a bias shared by a number of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled models.

[1] Surface waters in upwelling regions are thought to be nutrient rich and hence inhibit nitrogen fixation (diazotrophy) because diazotrophs can preferentially assimilate nitrate and ammonia instead of expending energy to fix dinitrogen. We found average nitrogen fixation rates to be two to seven times higher in the surface waters of the upwelling region of the eastern equatorial Atlantic than typically measured here during non-upwelling periods. We posit that in this region, low nitrate-phosphate ratio waters are upwelled, and an initial bloom of non-diazotrophic phytoplankton removes recently upwelled nitrate. Thereby, diazotrophy is fuelled by residual phosphate and by a combination of aeolian and upwelled sources of iron. Annually, we estimate that approximately 47 Gmol of new nitrogen is introduced by diazotrophy in upwelled waters alone and 195 Gmol N is fixed in the equatorial Atlantic region. Our findings challenge the paradigm that the highest nitrogen fixation rates occur in oligotrophic gyres and instead provide evidence of its importance in upwelling regimes where phosphate- and iron-rich waters rich are upwelled.

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00682.1 This study aims to explore the relationship between air–sea density flux and isopycnal meridional overturning circulation (MOC), using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) model projections of the twenty-first-century climate. The focus is on the semiadiabatic component of MOC beneath the mixed layer; this component is described using the concept of the push–pull mode, which represents the combined effects of the adiabatic push into the deep ocean in the Northern Hemisphere and the pull out of the deep ocean in the Southern Hemisphere. The analysis based on the GFDL Climate Model version 2.1 (CM2.1) simulation demonstrates that the push–pull mode and the actual isopycnal MOC at the equator evolve similarly in the deep layers, with their maximum transports decreasing by 4–5 Sv (1 Sv [ 106 m3 s21) during years 2001–2100. In particular, the push–pull mode and actual isopycnal MOC are within approximately 10% of each other at the density layers heavier than 27.55 kg m23, where the reduction in the MOC strength is the strongest. The decrease in the push–pull mode is caused by the direct contribution of the anomalous heat, rather than freshwater, surface fluxes. The agreement between the deep push–pull mode and MOC in the values of linear trend and variability on time scales longer than a decade suggests a largely adiabatic pole-to-pole mechanism for these changes. The robustness of the main conclusions is further explored in additional model simulations.

The Gulf Stream in the Atlantic carries warm water northwards and forms both the return closure of the subtropical gyre as well as the upper limb of the meridional overturning circulation. Recent time series recorded east of the Bahamas at 26°N indicate that from May 2009 to April 2011, in contrast with past observations, the northward flowing Antilles Current covaried with the Gulf Stream in the Florida Straits—the Florida Current—even though the Florida and Antilles Currents are separated by banks and islands spanning 150?km. The peak-to-trough amplitude of transport variations during this period was 15?×?106?m3?s?1 for the Florida Current and 12?×?106?m3?s?1 for the Antilles Current, at time scales of 50?days to a year. From satellite observations, we show that the fluctuations in both the Florida and Antilles Currents between May 2009 and April 2011 are driven by eddy activity east of the Bahamas. Since the Florida Current time series is a critical time series for the state of the oceans, and often compared to climate models, this newly identified source of variability needs careful consideration when attributing the variability of the Florida Current to changes in the larger-scale circulations (e.g., gyre and overturning) or wind forcing.

Five years of data from a line of dynamic height moorings (DHM), bottom-pressure recorders (BPR), and pressure-equipped inverted echo sounders (PIES) near the Atlantic Ocean western boundary at 26.51N are used to evaluate the structure and variability of the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) during 2004–2009. Comparisons made between transports estimated from the DHM þ BPR and those made by the PIES demonstrate that the two systems are collecting equivalent volume transport information (correlation coefficient r¼ 0.96, root-mean-square difference ¼6 Sv; 1 Sv ¼10 6 m 3 s � 1 ). Integrated to � 450 km off from the continental shelf and between 800 and 4800 dbar, the DWBC has a mean transport of approximately 32 Sv and a standard deviation during these five years of 16 Sv. Both the barotropic (full-depth vertical mean) and baroclinic flows have significant variability (changes exceeding 10 Sv) on time scales ranging from a few days to months, with the barotropic variations being larger and more energetic at all time scales. The annual cycle of the deep transport is highly dependent on the horizontal integration distance; integrating � 100 km offshore yields an annual cycle of roughly similar magnitude but shifted in phase relative to that found from current meter arrays in the 1980–1990s, while the annual cycle becomes quite weak when integrating � 450 km offshore. Variations in the DWBC transport far exceed those of the total basin-wide Meridional Overturning Circulation (standard deviations of 16 Sv vs. 5 Sv). Transport integrated in the deep layer out to the west side of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge still demonstrates a surprisingly high variance, indicating that some compensation of the western basin deep variability must occur in the eastern basin. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

For decades oceanographers have understood the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to be primarily driven by changes in the production of deep-water formation in the subpolar and subarctic North Atlantic. Indeed, current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of an AMOC slowdown in the twenty-first century based on climate models are attributed to the inhibition of deep convection in the North Atlantic. However, observational evidence for this linkage has been elusive: there has been no clear demonstration of AMOC variability in response to changes in deep-water formation. The motivation for understanding this linkage is compelling, since the overturning circulation has been shown to sequester heat and anthropogenic carbon in the deep ocean. Furthermore, AMOC variability is expected to impact this sequestration as well as have consequences for regional and global climates through its effect on the poleward transport of warm water. Motivated by the need for a mechanistic understanding of the AMOC, an international community has assembled an observing system, Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP), to provide a continuous record of the transbasin fluxes of heat, mass, and freshwater, and to link that record to convective activity and water mass transformation at high latitudes. OSNAP, in conjunction with the Rapid Climate Change–Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array (RAPID–MOCHA) at 26°N and other observational elements, will provide a comprehensive measure of the three-dimensional AMOC and an understanding of what drives its variability. The OSNAP observing system was fully deployed in the summer of 2014, and the first OSNAP data products are expected in the fall of 2017.

Variability in the North Atlantic ocean heat transport at 26.5°N on short (5 day) timescales is identified and contrasted with different behaviour at monthly intervals using a combination of RAPID/MOCHA/WBTS measurements and the NEMO-LIM2 1/12° ocean circulation/sea ice model. Wind forcing plays the leading role in establishing the heat transport variability through the Ekman transport response of the ocean and the associated driving atmospheric conditions vary significantly with timescale. We find that at 5 day timescales the largest changes in the heat transport across 26.5°N coincide with north-westerly airflows originating over the American land mass that drive strong southward anomalies in the Ekman flow. During these events the northward heat transport reduces by 0.5–1.4 PW. In contrast, the Ekman transport response at longer monthly timescales is smaller in magnitude (up to 0.5 PW) and consistent with expected variations in the leading mode of North Atlantic atmospheric variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation. The north-westerly airflow mechanism can have a prolonged influence beyond the central 5 day timescale and on occasion can reduce the accumulated winter ocean heat transport into the North Atlantic by ?40%.

From ten years of observations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) at 26° N (2004–2014), we revisit the question of flow compensation between components of the circulation. Contrasting with early results from the observations, transport variations of the Florida Current (FC) and upper mid-ocean (UMO) transports (top 1000 m east of the Bahamas) are now found to compensate on sub-annual timescales. The observed compensation between the FC and UMO transports is associated with horizontal circulation and means that this part of the correlated variability does not project onto the MOC. A deep baroclinic response to wind-forcing (Ekman transport) is also found in the lower North Atlantic Deep Water (LNADW; 3000–5000 m) transport. In contrast, co-variability between Ekman and the LNADW transports does contribute to overturning. On longer timescales, the southward UMO transport has continued to strengthen, resulting in a continued decline of the MOC. Most of this interannual variability of the MOC can be traced to changes in isopycnal displacements on the western boundary, within the top 1000 m and below 2000 m. Substantial trends are observed in isopycnal displacements in the deep ocean, underscoring the importance of deep boundary measurements to capture the variability of the Atlantic MOC.

The exchange between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean on synoptic time scales (days to weeks) is investigated using moored current meter data collected in the strait of Bab el Mandeb from June 1995 to November 1996. Transport variations through the strait on these time scales can reach amplitudes of up to 0.6 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), or nearly twice as large as the mean rate of exchange through the strait driven by annual evaporation over the Red Sea. The synoptic transport variability appears to be driven by two primary forcing mechanisms: 1) local wind stress variability over the strait and 2) variation in the large-scale barometric pressure over the Red Sea. Simple models of the forced response are developed and are shown to reproduce the essential features of the observations. The response to barometric pressure forcing over the Red Sea is fundamentally barotropic, whereas the response to along-strait winds is barotropic at high frequencies and tends toward a two-layer exchange at low frequencies. The responses to both types of forcing show enhanced amplitude at the Helmholtz resonance frequency for the Red Sea, which occurs at a period of about 5 days. A linear two-layer model, incorporating both types of forcing and a reasonable frictional parameterization, is shown to account for about 70% of the observed transport variance within the strait.

The rapid climate change programme (RAPID) has established a prototype system to continuously observe the strength and structure of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) at 26.5°N. Here we provide a detailed description of the RAPID-MOC monitoring array and how it has evolved during the first four deployment years, as well as an overview of the main findings so far. The RAPID-MOC monitoring array measures: (1) Gulf Stream transport through Florida Strait by cable and repeat direct velocity measurements; (2) Ekman transports by satellite scatterometer measurements; (3) Deep Western Boundary Currents by direct velocity measurements; (4) the basin wide interior baroclinic circulation from moorings measuring vertical profiles of density at the boundaries and on either side of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge; and (5) barotropic fluctuations using bottom pressure recorders. The array became operational in late March 2004 and is expected to continue until at least 2014. The first 4 years of observations (April 2004–April 2008) have provided an unprecedented insight into the MOC structure and variability. We show that the zonally integrated meridional flow tends to conserve mass, with the fluctuations of the different transport components largely compensating at periods longer than 10 days. We take this as experimental confirmation of the monitoring strategy, which was initially tested in numerical models. The MOC at 26.5°N is characterised by a large variability—even on timescales as short as weeks to months. The mean maximum MOC transport for the first 4 years of observations is 18.7 Sv with a standard deviation of 4.8 Sv. The mechanisms causing the MOC variability are not yet fully understood. Part of the observed MOC variability consists of a seasonal cycle, which can be linked to the seasonal variability of the wind stress curl close to the African coast. Close to the western boundary, fluctuations in the Gulf Stream and in the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) coincide with bottom pressure variations at the western margin, thus suggesting a barotropic compensation. Ongoing and future research will put these local transport variations into a wider spatial and climatic context.

Ocean upwelling rates are difficult to measure because of the relatively small velocities involved, and therefore are typically inferred from indirect methods such as heat budget estimates or tracer observations. Here we present the first results using a novel technique, based on the isotope 7 Be, to infer rates of upwelling along the equator. Beryllium-7 (half-life=53.3 d) is a cosmic-ray produced radioactive nuclide that is deposited by rainfall upon the ocean surface and subsequently enriched and homogenized within the mixed layer. Previous investigations have utilized the penetration of characteristically high mixed layer concentrations into the upper thermocline to trace ocean ventilation and subduction over seasonal timescales. Here, the tracer is used in a reverse sense; that is, the 7 Be concentration in the usually 7 Be-rich surface mixed layer will be diluted from penetration of 7 Be “dead” water upwelled from below. This dilution provides a means to infer upwelling rates. Furthermore, with knowledge of upwelling rates, 7 Be profiles can be used to constrain vertical diffusivity within the upper thermocline. These ideas were tested with samples collected during the Tropical Atlantic Climate Experiment (TACE) cruise (May 22–June 27, 2009). The observations indicated a nearly linear relationship between 7 Be inventory and mixed layer temperature, as with increased upwelling, lower mixed layer temperatures correspond to greater 7 Be dilution from depth. With this data, upwelling rates were estimated at a number of stations near the equator between 0°E and 30°W within and adjacent to the equatorial cold tongue. The derived upwelling rates ranged from 0 to 2.2 m/d, with maximum values found between the equator and 2°S. The corresponding K z values derived for the upper thermocline were in the range 1–4×10 −4 m 2 /s.

The advective transit time of temperature–salinity anomalies from the Agulhas region to the regions of deep convection in the North Atlantic Ocean is an important time scale in climate, because it has been linked to variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Studying this transit time scale is difficult, because most observational and high-resolution model data are too short for assessment of the global circulation on decadal to centennial time scales. Here, results are presented from a technique to obtain thousands of “supertrajectories” of any required length using a Monte Carlo simulation. These supertrajectories allow analysis of the circulation patterns and time scales based on Lagrangian data: in this case, observational surface drifter trajectories from the Global Drifter Program and Lagrangian data from the high-resolution OGCM for the Earth Simulator (OFES). The observational supertrajectories can only be used to study the two-dimensional (2D) surface flow, whereas the numerical supertrajectories can be used to study the full three-dimensional circulation. Results for the surface circulation indicate that the supertrajectories starting in the Agulhas Current and ending in the North Atlantic take at least 4 yr and most complete the journey in 30–40 yr. This time scale is, largely because of convergence and subduction in the subtropical gyres, longer than the 10–25 yr it takes the 3D numerical supertrajectories to complete the journey.

As the Red Sea overflow water (RSOW) enters the Gulf of Aden (GOA), it interacts with a sequence of nearly barotropic, mesoscale eddies originating in the Indian Ocean. To investigate how these eddies impact the dispersal and eastward transport of the RSOW toward the Indian Ocean, a high resolution 3D regional model is employed to explore systematically the interaction between the RSOW and mesoscale eddies. Two types of experiments are conducted. In the first set, we simulate the behavior of RSOW in the presence of an idealized cyclone and an idealized anticyclone. The second type of simulation involves nesting of the regional model (ROMS) within a data-assimilating global model (HYCOM), in which a sequence of mesoscale eddies entering the Gulf of Aden is realistically captured. This simulation is integrated for one year, and includes a simple representation of the seasonality of the RSOW. Bower et al. (2002) suggest that the Red Sea overflow might be a western boundary undercurrent. Consistent with these expectations, the idealized simulations show that the preferred pathway of the RSOW in the absence of eddies is along the coast of Somalia (southern continental shelf) as a western boundary undercurrent. Simultaneously, a cyclonic circulation is generated in the far western GOA due to vortex stretching by the descending outflow. The presence of a cyclone in the western GOA increases the peak RSOW transport, but the cyclone itself rapidly loses its coherence after interacting with the rough topography in the western GOA. The presence of an anticyclone tends to block the preferred boundary pathway and inhibits the eastward transport of the RSOW. The eddies also result in substantially increased mixing of the RSOW in the western GOA. On the basis of the more realistic ROMS experiment, it is found that the modeled RSOW leaves the western part of the Gulf of Aden in short episodic bursts with transports that are an order of magnitude greater than that associated with the quasi-steady RSOW inflow into GOA. Such enhancement in RSOW transport is shown to be induced by cyclonic eddies that cause a rapid discharge of RSOW from the western part of the GOA. We conclude that mesoscale eddies play a key role in the transport and mixing of the RSOW within GOA.

The temporal evolution of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the subtropical North Atlantic is affected by both remotely forced, basin-scale meridionally coherent, climate-relevant transport anomalies, such as changes in high-latitude deep water formation rates, and locally forced transport anomalies, such as eddies or Rossby waves, possibly associated with small meridional coherence scales, which can be considered as noise. The focus of this paper is on the extent to which local eddies and Rossby waves when impinging on the western boundary of the Atlantic affect the temporal variability of the AMOC at 26.5°N. Continuous estimates of the AMOC at this latitude have been made since April 2004 by combining the Florida Current, Ekman, and midocean transports with the latter obtained from continuous density measurements between the coasts of the Bahamas and Morocco, representing, respectively, the western and eastern boundaries of the Atlantic at this latitude. Within 100 km of the western boundary there is a threefold decrease in sea surface height variability toward the boundary, observed in both dynamic heights from in situ density measurements and altimetric heights. As a consequence, the basinwide zonally integrated upper midocean transport shallower than 1000 m—as observed continuously between April 2004 and October 2006—varies by only 3.0 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) RMS. Instead, upper midocean transports integrated from western boundary stations 16, 40, and 500 km offshore to the eastern boundary vary by 3.6, 6.0, and 10.7 Sv RMS, respectively. The reduction in eddy energy toward the western boundary is reproduced in a nonlinear reduced-gravity model suggesting that boundary-trapped waves may account for the observed decline in variability in the coastal zone because they provide a mechanism for the fast equatorward export of transport anomalies associated with eddies impinging on the western boundary. An analytical model of linear Rossby waves suggests a simple scaling for the reduction in thermocline thickness variability toward the boundary. Physically, the reduction in amplitude is understood as along-boundary pressure gradients accelerating the fluid and rapidly propagating pressure anomalies along the boundary. The results suggest that the local eddy field does not dominate upper midocean transport or AMOC variability at 26.5°N on interannual to decadal time scales.

Seasonal variability of the tropical Atlantic circulation is dominated by the annual cycle, but semiannual variability is also pronounced, despite weak forcing at that period. This study uses multiyear, full-depth velocity measurements from the central equatorial Atlantic to analyze the vertical structure of annual and semiannual variations of zonal velocity. A baroclinic modal decomposition finds that the annual cycle is dominated by the fourth mode and the semiannual cycle is dominated by the second mode. Similar local behavior is found in a high-resolution general circulation model. This simulation reveals that the annual and semiannual cycles of the respective dominant baroclinic modes are associated with characteristic basinwide structures. Using an idealized, linear, reduced-gravity model to simulate the dynamics of individual baroclinic modes, it is shown that the observed circulation variability can be explained by resonant equatorial basin modes. Corollary simulations of the reduced-gravity model with varying basin geometry (i.e., square basin vs realistic coastlines) or forcing (i.e., spatially uniform vs spatially variable wind) show a structural robustness of the simulated basin modes. A main focus of this study is the seasonal variability of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) as identified in recent observational studies. Main characteristics of the observed EUC including seasonal variability of transport, core depth, and maximum core velocity can be explained by the linear superposition of the dominant equatorial basin modes as obtained from the reduced-gravity model.

The vigor of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is thought to be vulnerable to global warming, but its short-term temporal variability is unknown so changes inferred from sparse observations on the decadal time scale of recent climate change are uncertain. We combine continuous measurements of the MOC (beginning in 2004) using the purposefully designed transatlantic Rapid Climate Change array of moored instruments deployed along 26.5°N, with time series of Gulf Stream transport and surface-layer Ekman transport to quantify its intra-annual variability. The year-long average overturning is 18.7 ± 5.6 sverdrups (Sv) (range: 4.0 to 34.9 Sv, where 1 Sv = a flow of ocean water of 10 6 cubic meters per second). Interannual changes in the overturning can be monitored with a resolution of 1.5 Sv.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC), which provides one-quarter of the global meridional heat transport, is composed of a number of separate flow components. How changes in the strength of each of those components may affect that of the others has been unclear because of a lack of adequate data. We continuously observed the MOC at 26.5°N for 1 year using end-point measurements of density, bottom pressure, and ocean currents; cable measurements across the Straits of Florida; and wind stress. The different transport components largely compensate for each other, thus confirming the validity of our monitoring approach. The MOC varied over the period of observation by ±5.7 × 10 6 cubic meters per second, with density-inferred and wind-driven transports contributing equally to it. We find evidence for depth-independent compensation for the wind-driven surface flow.