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Although there has been an unprecedented decline in traffic volume due to the COVID-19 crisis, robust growth in global demand for air transport services in the past means that air traffic is expected to recover in the long term. While capacity constraints are currently not a major topic at airports due to the extremely low levels of traffic, there is growing evidence to suggest that important nodes of the worldwide airport network will struggle to deal with capacity constraints after the recovery. The objectives of this research were therefore as follows: to elaborate long-term global passenger and flight volume scenarios in a post-COVID-19 world, to conduct an empirical and model-based analysis of the impact of limited airport capacity on the future development of air traffic in these scenarios, and to derive general strategies for mitigating capacity constraints at certain international airports. Thus, the main aim of this paper is to present a model-based scenario analysis of the long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the capacity situation for airports. Our results indicate that once the pandemic is over, the capacity crunch will remain on the airports’ agenda for some time.

Transport is considered to be a major contributor to emissions, resulting in a deterioration of local air quality and contributing to global climate change. The present paper focuses on how passenger flights departing from German airports contribute to global climate change. We describe in detail, how traffic forecasts for three scenarios entitled Reference, Free Play and Regulated Shift have been developed and how the resultant emissions have been quantified. Subsequently, we applied a climate model, providing insights into the very long-term climate effects under different assumptions on emissions up to the year 2100. The modelling framework shows that the development of emissions results from complex interactions of demand development and supply decisions, which highly influence the climate impact. With this paper, we show that an integrated, multi-disciplinary analysis can create valuable indicators and advice for transport policy decisions.

Luftverkehrsentwicklung

Die klimarelevanten Emissionen des Luftverkehrs stehen bei umweltpolitischen Diskussionen oft weit oben auf der Agenda. Im Luftverkehrssektor werden deshalb alternative Optionen für neue Antriebe und Kraftstoffe, technische Effizienzsteigerungsmöglichkeiten sowie Optimierungen des Flugbetriebsablaufs als Lösungsmöglichkeiten für die umweltpolitischen Herausforderungen gesehen. Allerdings können die Verläufe der sozioökonomischen Rahmenbedingungen viel entscheidender für die Entwicklung des Luftverkehrs und der damit verbundenen Emissionen sein. Um den Einfluss dieser Rahmenbedingungen auf die Luftverkehrs- und Emissionsentwicklung deutlich zu machen, werden im vorgestellten Beitrag globale Gesamtentwicklungsszenarien, die so genannten Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, für die Betrachtungsebene „Deutschland“ spezifiziert, z.B. hinsichtlich der Bevölkerungs- und Wirtschaftsentwicklung sowie unterschiedlichen Pfaden von politischen Rahmensetzungen. Unter Einbeziehung dieser Rahmenentwicklungen werden mit Hilfe der im DLR Institut für Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr vorhandenen Modelle wesentliche Kenngrößen der Luftverkehrsnachfrage und des Luftverkehrsangebots für ausgewählte Szenarien mit einem Zeithorizont bis 2040 abgeschätzt. In einem dritten Arbeitsschritt werden konsistente Annahmen zur technisch-betrieblichen Entwicklung des Luftverkehrs vorgenommen, mit deren Hilfe die deutschlandbezogenen Emissionsentwicklungen für die ausgewählten Szenarien dargestellt werden können. Die unterschiedlichen Emissionsverläufe der einzelnen Szenarien werden abschließend vor dem Hintergrund aktueller umweltpolitischer Maßnahmen und Zielsetzungen diskutiert und eingeordnet. Die vorgestellten Arbeiten sind eingebettet in das von der HGF finanzierte Projekt „Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt.

The objective of the study is to reveal and analyse the recent network extension activities of Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) in European countries. The first wave of introducing new routes in Europe took place from about 2002 to 2008 when LCCs had entered the market and created new services on routes, often bypassing established routes. While the years from 2008 to 2013 showed little growth in LCC networks, more new routes have been introduced since then. Quite in contrast to the first wave the second wave is characterized by new routes from major airports, often in direct competition with other carriers, and by both European and inter-continental routes. In addition, new LCC routes are introduced on short-haul routes by replacing Full Service Network Carrier (FSNC) routes. The analysis, which is based on data of OAG (e. g. routes, flights) and Sabre ADI (passenger demand), shows the network changes by market and airline type over the last years and the demand growth in general and on selected routes, and thus reveals that passengers prefer LCC services in European markets more than FSNC services. LCCs have opened in Europe many more new routes in 2016 than FSNCs did. Ryanair and EasyJet, the two biggest LCCs of Europe, have added over 300 new routes, and most of the new routes opened in Europe are LCC routes. The number of intercontinental LCC routes alone has almost doubled from 20 to 38 routes. The paper is supposed to contribute to a better understanding of the current trend in air transport in Europe: LCCs continue to develop their networks with a new effort to directly compete with FSNCs, both in European and intercontinental traffic, while FSNCs adapt their business model and participate in the LCC business by setting up their own LCC subsidiaries.