1. A generalized Data-Driven Modelling for COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Jordan case study
- Author
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Ola M. Surakhi, Walid Salameh, Ibrahim Abu Alhaol, Mohammed Alkhanafseh, Pak Lun Fung, and Tareq Hussein
- Abstract
The explosion of the COVID-19 pandemic shows the limitations of the existing healthcare system in handling health emergencies. Innovative technologies like artificial intelligence and mathematical modelling can play an essential role in effective planning operations for fighting coronavirus pandemic. In this paper, a comparison between the mathematical model performance and three data-driven models (Feed-forward neural network, Stacked LSTM and Bidirectional LSTM) was performed. These methods (data-driven methods) are applied to model the percentage of positive cases out of the total qPCR tests in Jordan to provide more insight on the appropriate model that can be utilized for COVID-19 disease-spreading analysis. The performance metrics were: mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). Our findings show that both mathematical and data-driven models can assess disease-spreading research. However, with the appearance of the new virus variant, Omicron, the mathematical model failed to forecast the pandemic while data-driven approaches are robust and successfully captured the sudden change in the number of positive cases in Jordan. However, much work is still needed to capture more factors in the modelling process and provide a reliable solution for stopping this pandemic.
- Published
- 2022
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