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Eutrophication in freshwater lakes is a global water quality issue. The cumulative concentration of nutrients such as nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), or aggregated water quality indices (e.g., trophic state index) are frequently used metrics to monitor lake water quality. Such monitoring fails to identify the key causes of eutrophication. As a result, management and policy-making are not sufficiently informed, while it is necessary to understand the effects of the changing climate and socioeconomic development. It is therefore critical to develop and promote indicators for water quality monitoring that include sources of nutrient emissions and their pathways into the lake basin. In this study, we present indicators of drivers and pressures that account for anthropogenic emissions, socio-economic variables, and land-use. To assess the indicators, we implement an integrated modeling framework that consists of GLOBIOM-CWatM-MARINA-Lakes, which combine land use, hydrology and anthropogenic nutrient emissions to lakes. The Lake Victoria basin in Africa will be used as a case study to assess the drivers and pressures and develop a better understanding of the impacts of socio-economy and sources of nutrient emissions on lake water quality. Such drivers and pressures of a lake basin can be used as proxies, particularly in data scarce regions, to fill the gap in water quality monitoring data, and to assist in design of nutrient management policies and plans.

Anthropogenic influences such as urbanization, agricultural intensification, use of chemical fertilizers,and the release of sewage emit nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) into freshwater lakes. Excessiveamounts of nitrogen and phosphorus lead to eutrophication, which is a global water quality concern,with typical impacts such as the growth of harmful algal blooms, hypoxia and fish kills. The currentwater quality indicators used to monitor lake eutrophication focus only on water quality constituents(e.g., total phosphorus and total nitrogen). The response of lakesto nutrient inputs, however, dependson its interaction with climate, basin characteristics that include land use, hydrology andanthropogenic activities. In this study, we present a set of comprehensive indicators that account fornutrient sources and biogeochemical pathways in the lake basins and demonstrate their interactionsusing a causal network. The causal network provides a holistic perspective of nutrient dynamics andthe interactive effects of the indicators on water quality in lake basins, which is key to improving waterquality management. The indicators from this study can be used as proxies to monitor water qualitystatus. The comprehensive indicators improve mechanistic understanding of the lake nutrientdynamics, by systematically considering mechanisms of sources and factors of nutrients emission inthe basin. They can consequently fill the gap in water quality monitoring data, especially in data scarceregions such as Asia and Africa. These indicators can be used to set realistic water quality targets andare therefore beneficial in long-term policy making and sustainable water quality management.

Access to safe water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) continues to be a universal challenge that affects human health and well-being. The latest global reports from the Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene led by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) have highlighted the global scale of WASH issues, particularly in the least developed countries (LDCs). In 2020, it was estimated that there were 2 billion people that did not have access to safe drinking water, 2.3 billion people who lacked access to basic hygiene services, and 3.6 billion people who did not have safe sanitation in their households (WHO/UNICEF JMP, 2021). In addition, more than 500 million children still lack basic WASH services in their schools (WHO/UNICEF JMP, 2022). This is also common in health care facilities, which are fundamental for the prevention and control of diseases such as diarrhoea, and more recently COVID-19 (WHO/UNICEF JMP, 2020). Moreover, those living in slums and informal settlements, which are characterised by the lack of durable housing, insufficient living space, lack of access to clean drinking water, inadequate sanitation and insecure tenure (UN HABITAT, 2010), have a disproportionately higher disease burden due to the lack of access to safe WASH. Slums and informal settlements also reinforce gender inequalities and gender-based violence, due to the higher vulnerabilities of women and adolescent girls, in part because of their menstruation and sanitation requirements (Goddard and Sommer, 2020).

Masahiro Takeshima,1 Hiroyasu Ishikawa,1 Masaya Ogasawara,1 Munehiro Komatsu,2 Dai Fujiwara,1 Yu Itoh,2 Yuki Wada,3 Yuki Omori,4 Hidenobu Ohta,1 Kazuo Mishima1 1Department of Neuropsychiatry, Akita University Graduate School of Medicine, Akita, Japan; 2Department of Neuropsychiatry, Akita City Hospital, Akita, Japan; 3Department of Radiology, Akita University Graduate School of Medicine, Akita, Japan; 4Department of Neuropsychiatry, Tokyo Metropolitan Geriatric Hospital, Tokyo, JapanCorrespondence: Masahiro TakeshimaDepartment of Neuropsychiatry, Akita University Graduate School of Medicine, 1-1-1, Hondo, Akita City, Akita, 010-8543, JapanTel +81-18-884-6122Fax +81-18-884-6445Email m.takeshima@med.akita-u.ac.jpPurpose: D-dimer has the advantage of excluding venous thromboembolism (VTE) due to its high sensitivity but is disadvantageous for diagnosing VTE due to its low specificity. A method to increase the usefulness of D-dimer in the diagnosis of VTE is warranted. This study aimed to investigate the usefulness of the combination of D-dimer and soluble fibrin monomer complex (SFMC), which has been suggested as a new candidate marker for VTE, in VTE diagnosis.Patients and Methods: This prospective study in 109 subjects was performed at a psychiatric department between August 1, 2017 and December 31, 2019. Subjects’ levels of D-dimer and SFMC were measured simultaneously. Plasma levels of D-dimer and SFMC were measured using NANOPIA® D-dimer and NANOPIA® SF. Subjects with positive D-dimer (≥ 1.0 μg/mL) results underwent contrast computed tomography for confirmation of VTE within 12 hours of D-dimer measurement. A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to examine the usefulness of SFMC for the diagnosis of VTE.Results: Only 109 of the 783 subjects without symptoms suggestive of VTE participated in the study. Out of 41 subjects with positive D-dimer results, 17 subjects were diagnosed with VTE. A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to determine cutoff values. The area under the curves was 0.848 for SFMC (p< 0.001, 95% CI 0.722 to 0.974), and the optimal cutoff value was 10.0 μg/mL (sensitivity 58.8%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100%, negative predictive value 77.4%).Conclusion: SFMC was useful for diagnosing VTE in the psychiatric patients with positive D-dimer results.Keywords: computed tomography, D-dimer, psychiatric patients, soluble fibrin monomer complex, venous thromboembolism

Hideki Shibata, Takeshi Aoki, Tomotake Koizumi, Tomokazu Kusano, Tatsuya Yamazaki, Kazuhiko Saito, Takahito Hirai, Kodai Tomioka, Yusuke Wada, Tomoki Hakozaki, Yoshihiko Tashiro, Koji Nogaki, Kosuke Yamada, Kazuhiro Matsuda, Akira Fujimori, Yuta Enami, Masahiko Murakami Division of Gastroenterological and General Surgery, Department of Surgery, School of Medicine, Showa University, Tokyo, JapanCorrespondence: Takeshi AokiDivision of Gastroenterological and General Surgery, Department of Surgery, School of Medicine, Showa University, 1-5-8, Hatanodai, Shinagawa-Ku, Tokyo, 142-8555, JapanTel +81-3-3784-8000Fax +81-3-3784-5835Email takejp@med.showa-u.ac.jpPurpose: Bile duct injury is one of the most serious complications of laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Intraoperative indocyanine green (ICG) cholangiography is a safe and useful navigation modality for confirming the biliary anatomy. ICG cholangiography is expected to be a routine method for helping avoid bile duct injuries.Patients and Methods: We examined 25 patients who underwent intraoperative cholangiography using ICG fluorescence. Two methods of ICG injection are used: intrabiliary injection (percutaneous transhepatic gallbladder drainage [PTGBD], gallbladder [GB] puncture and endoscopic nasobiliary drainage [ENBD]) at a dosage of 0.025 mg during the operation or intravenous injection with 2.5 mg ICG preoperatively.Results: There were 24 patients who underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy and 1 patient who underwent hepatectomy. For laparoscopic cholecystectomy, the average operation time was 127 (50– 197) minutes, and estimated blood loss was 43.2 (0– 400) g. The ICG administration route was intravenous injections in 12 cases and intrabiliary injection in 12 cases (GB injection: 3 cases, PTGBD: 8 cases, ENBD:1 case). The course of the biliary tree was able to be confirmed in all cases that received direct injection into the biliary tract, whereas bile structures were recognizable in only 10 cases (83.3%) with intravenous injection. The postoperative hospital stay was 4.6 (3– 9) days, and no postoperative complications (Clavien–Dindo ≧IIIa) were observed. For hepatectomy, a tumor located near the left Glissonian pedicle was resected using a fluorescence image guide. Biliary structures were fluorescent without injury after resecting the tumor. No adverse events due to ICG administration were observed, and the procedure was able to be performed safely.Conclusion: ICG fluorescence imaging allows surgeons to visualize the course of the biliary tree in real time during cholecystectomy and hepatectomy. This is considered essential for hepatobiliary surgery to prevent biliary tree injury and ensure safe surgery.Keywords: indocyanine green fluorescent imaging, navigation surgery, near-infrared fluorescent cholangiography

Masanori Yasuo,* Yoshiaki Kitaguchi,* Yayoi Tokoro, Makoto Kosaka, Yosuke Wada, Takumi Kinjo, Atsuhito Ushiki, Hiroshi Yamamoto, Masayuki Hanaoka The First Department of Internal Medicine, Shinshu University School of Medicine, Matsumoto, Japan*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Masanori YasuoThe First Department of Internal Medicine, Shinshu University School of Medicine, 3-1-1 Asahi, Matsumoto 390-8621, JapanTel +81 263 37 2631Fax +81 263 36 3722Email yasumasa@shinshu-u.ac.jpBackground: Obstructive ventilatory disturbances occur in both chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a typical disease representative of peripheral airway obstruction, and central airway obstruction (CAO). Pulmonary function tests (PFTs), which depend on patient effort, are traditionally used to evaluate lung function. The forced oscillation technique (FOT) is an effort-independent method for examining lung function during tidal breathing. The FOT is used universally to assess respiratory function in patients with COPD. Several studies have measured FOT to assess ventilatory disturbances in CAO. The results showed that FOT measurements in patients with CAO were similar to those reported in patients with COPD. However, no studies have compared FOT measurements directly between CAO and COPD. The aim of this study was to identify differences in ventilatory disturbances between peripheral and central airway obstructions in COPD and CAO, before patients received pharmacological therapy or bronchoscopic interventions, respectively.Patients and Methods: We retrospectively included 16 patients with CAO (10 cases of tracheal obstruction and 6 cases of bronchial obstruction) and 75 treatment-naïve patients with COPD (60 cases in Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] stage II and 15 cases in GOLD stage III) that were admitted from December 2013 to May 2017. Prior to treatment, patients were examined with the FOT and PFTs.Results: All parameters measured with the FOT in the inspiratory phase were significantly worse in patients with CAO than in patients with COPD. The PFTs showed that the CAO group had a significantly lower peak expiratory flow rate. In the airway wall thickening phenotype of COPD, a difference between the inspiratory and expiratory phases of the resonance frequency (ΔFres) was the best indicator for distinguishing between peripheral and central airway obstructions.Conclusion: This study compared differences between CAO and COPD (mainly GOLD stage II). We found that the FOT measurement, ΔFres, was the optimal indicator of the difference between the airway wall thickening COPD phenotype and CAO. Thus, the difference might be due to mechanical changes that occur in COPD with airway wall thickening.Keywords: forced oscillation technique, pulmonary function test, quality of life, central airway obstruction, COPD

IgG4-related disease (IgG4-RD) can cause fibroinflammatory lesions in nearly any organ. Correlation among clinical, serological, radiological and pathological data is required for diagnosis. This work was undertaken to develop and validate an international set of classification criteria for IgG4-RD. An international multispecialty group of 86 physicians was assembled by the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) and the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR). Investigators used consensus exercises; existing literature; derivation and validation cohorts of 1879 subjects (1086 cases, 793 mimickers); and multicriterion decision analysis to identify, weight and test potential classification criteria. Two independent validation cohorts were included. A three-step classification process was developed. First, it must be demonstrated that a potential IgG4-RD case has involvement of at least one of 11 possible organs in a manner consistent with IgG4-RD. Second, exclusion criteria consisting of a total of 32 clinical, serological, radiological and pathological items must be applied; the presence of any of these criteria eliminates the patient from IgG4-RD classification. Third, eight weighted inclusion criteria domains, addressing clinical findings, serological results, radiological assessments and pathological interpretations, are applied. In the first validation cohort, a threshold of 20 points had a specificity of 99.2% (95% CI 97.2% to 99.8%) and a sensitivity of 85.5% (95% CI 81.9% to 88.5%). In the second, the specificity was 97.8% (95% CI 93.7% to 99.2%) and the sensitivity was 82.0% (95% CI 77.0% to 86.1%). The criteria were shown to have robust test characteristics over a wide range of thresholds. ACR/EULAR classification criteria for IgG4-RD have been developed and validated in a large cohort of patients. These criteria demonstrate excellent test performance and should contribute substantially to future clinical, epidemiological and basic science investigations.

BackgroundEndothelial cells (ECs) make up the innermost layer throughout the entire vasculature. Their phenotypes and physiological functions are initially regulated by developmental signals and extracellular stimuli. The underlying molecular mechanisms responsible for the diverse phenotypes of ECs from different organs are not well understood.ResultsTo characterize the transcriptomic and epigenomic landscape in the vascular system, we cataloged gene expression and active histone marks in nine types of human ECs (generating 148 genome-wide datasets) and carried out a comprehensive analysis with chromatin interaction data. We developed a robust procedure for comparative epigenome analysis that circumvents variations at the level of the individual and technical noise derived from sample preparation under various conditions. Through this approach, we identified 3765 EC-specific enhancers, some of which were associated with disease-associated genetic variations. We also identified various candidate marker genes for each EC type. We found that the nine EC types can be divided into two subgroups, corresponding to those with upper-body origins and lower-body origins, based on their epigenomic landscape. Epigenomic variations were highly correlated with gene expression patterns, but also provided unique information. Most of the deferentially expressed genes and enhancers were cooperatively enriched in more than one EC type, suggesting that the distinct combinations of multiple genes play key roles in the diverse phenotypes across EC types. Notably, many homeobox genes were differentially expressed across EC types, and their expression was correlated with the relative position of each organ in the body. This reflects the developmental origins of ECs and their roles in angiogenesis, vasculogenesis and wound healing.ConclusionsThis comprehensive analysis of epigenome characterization of EC types reveals diverse transcriptional regulation across human vascular systems. These datasets provide a valuable resource for understanding the vascular system and associated diseases.

The KamLAND-Zen 800 experiment is searching for the neutrinoless double-beta decay of 136Xe by using 136Xe-loaded liquid scintillator. The liquid scintillator is enclosed inside a balloon made of thin, transparent, low-radioactivity film that we call Inner Balloon (IB). The IB, apart from guaranteeing the liquid containment, also allows to minimize the background from cosmogenic muon-spallation products and 8B solar neutrinos. Indeed these events could contribute to the total counts in the region of interest around the Q-value of the double-beta decay of 136Xe. In this paper, we present an overview of the IB and describe the various steps of its commissioning minimizing the radioactive contaminations, from the material selection, to the fabrication of the balloon and its installation inside the KamLAND detector. Finally, we show the impact of the IB on the KamLAND background as measured by the KamLAND detector itself.

14 pages, 6 figures, supplementary information .-- Data availability. Simulation data from gridded impact models is available through https://esg.pik-potsdam.de/projects/isimip2a/ and citable using the following DOIs: https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2017.002 (terrestrial ecosystems); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2017.006 (agriculture); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2017.010 (hydrology); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2018.004 (marine ecosystems, regional); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2018.005 (marine ecosystems, global). The city-level mortality model data and country-level hydropower model data are available from the authors upon request, Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought, The work was supported within the framework of the Leibniz Competition (SAW-2013-PIK-5), the EU FP7 project HELIX (grant no. FP7–603864–2), the FP7 project IMPACT2C (grant agreement#282746) and by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, grant no. 01LS1201A1)

Naoko Iida,1,2 Yoshihisa Wada,1,3 Tatsuhisa Yamashita,1,2,4 Michiko Aoyama,5,6 Kiyoshi Hirai,5,6 Jin Narumoto1 1Department of Psychiatry, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan; 2Department of Child Psychiatry, Kyoto Prefectural Child Development Support Center, Kyoto, Japan; 3Fuchu-mikumari Hospital, Hiroshima, Japan; 4Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Yamashita Mental Health Clinic, Kyoto, Japan; 5Department of Pediatrics, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan; 6Department of Pediatrics, Kyoto Prefectural Child Development Support Center, Kyoto, Japan Purpose: Raising a child with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) can be a stressor, and mothers of ASD children often present with high levels of stress and depression. Interventional steps to enhance parental coping skills and resiliency are more important for parental mental health and the family-centered care of children with ASD than merely reducing parental stress. Although the importance of stress-coping skills is well established, only a few studies have investigated interventional steps to improve parental coping or resiliency. Parent training (PT) is known to improve a mother’s mental health. Here, we aimed to assess the effectiveness of PT in improving the stress-coping style of mothers raising children with ASD.Patients and methods: Thirty mothers of children with ASD aged 4–11 years participated in this study. The mothers underwent PT based on the Hizen Parenting Skills Training in Japan, which comprised seven sessions. Each session included education on behavior therapy, individual consultation, and workshops in small groups. Sixteen mothers completed psychological assessment, including the Stress Coping Inventory, the Beck Depression Inventory Second Edition, the State–Trait Anxiety Inventory, and the Child Behavior Checklist conducted before and after 2 months of PT.Results: The outcomes before and after the PT program were compared using the paired t-test and Pearson’s correlation. After the PT program, the mothers’ stress-coping strategy “positive appraisal” significantly increased (P

Food security has long been a challenge for human societies and will become an increasingly pressing global issue over the coming decades (Fischer, 2018). Although global food production has kept pace with population growth, close to 750 million people (or 10% of the global population) were exposed to severe levels of food insecurity in 2019 (FAO/IFAD/ UNICEF/WFP/WHO, 2020). Unfortunately, this number has increased even further over the course of 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impacts worldwide. In the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 aims to “end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture” (UNGA, 2015). The food system is almost entirely supported by water, and agriculture uses the major share of global freshwater resources. However, water use for food production is being questioned continually as intersectoral competition for water intensifies and water scarcity increases. Additionally, in many regions of the world, water for food production is used inefficiently (D’Odorico et al., 2020). This is a major driver of environmental degradation, including depletion of aquifers, reduction of river flows, degradation of wildlife habitats, and pollution (Willett et al., 2019). A fundamental transformation of how water is being managed in the food system is therefore necessary if most of the SDG 2 targets are to be achieved by 2030, without further degradation of water resources to concurrently achieve SDG 6 to “ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all” (IFPRI, 2019).

With a growing population and economic development, it is expected that water demands will increase significantly in the future, especially in developing regions. At the same time, climate change is expected to alter spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature and will have regional to localized impacts on water availability. Thus, it is important to assess water demand, water supply and environmental needs over time to identify the populations and locations that will be most affected by these changes linked to water scarcity, droughts and floods. The Community Water Model will be designed for this purpose in that they include an accounting of how future water demands will evolve in response to socioeconomic change and how water availability will change in response to climate. CWatM will represent one of the new key elements of the WAT program going forward and increasing the innovative niche of work. We will use and develop the model to work at both global and regional (basin) level. The configuration of the model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water community and is flexible enough to introduce further planned developments such as water quality and hydro-economy. Our vision for short to medium term work of the group is to introduce water quality (i.e., salinization in deltas and eutrophication associated with mega cities) into the community model and to consider how to include a qualitative/quantitative measure of transboundary river and groundwater governance into a scenario and modelling framework.

In recent years, deteriorated concrete slabs have been renewed, and precast concrete slabs have been used to shorten the construction period because of the need to regulate roads in service. Further, ground granulated blast-furnace slag (GGBFS) concrete, and epoxy-coated reinforcing bars are used for the precast concrete slabs to enhance durability. However, few studies were conducted on the results of exposure test with GGBFS concrete, and there is a risk of deterioration of epoxy-coated reinforcing bars by ultraviolet rays when precast slabs are placed and the bars are temporarily exposed. In this paper, an exposure test was carried out in Okinawa to assess the performance of concrete incorporating GGBFS and epoxy-coated reinforcing bars. As a result, GGBFS has high durability even in the long-term exposure condition, and epoxy-coated reinforcing bars also satisfies the standard in the temporary placement.

Histone H3 lysine‐9 di‐methylation (H3K9me2) and lysine‐27 tri‐methylation (H3K27me3) are linked to repression of gene expression, but the functions of repressive histone methylation dynamics during inflammatory responses remain enigmatic. Here, we report that lysine demethylases 7A (KDM7A) and 6A (UTX) play crucial roles in tumor necrosis factor (TNF)‐α signaling in endothelial cells (ECs), where they are regulated by a novel TNF‐α‐responsive microRNA, miR‐3679‐5p. TNF‐α rapidly induces co‐occupancy of KDM7A and UTX at nuclear factor kappa‐B (NF‐κB)‐associated elements in human ECs. KDM7A and UTX demethylate H3K9me2 and H3K27me3, respectively, and are both required for activation of NF‐κB‐dependent inflammatory genes. Chromosome conformation capture‐based methods furthermore uncover increased interactions between TNF‐α‐induced super enhancers at NF‐κB‐relevant loci, coinciding with KDM7A and UTX recruitments. Simultaneous pharmacological inhibition of KDM7A and UTX significantly reduces leukocyte adhesion in mice, establishing the biological and potential translational relevance of this mechanism. Collectively, these findings suggest that rapid erasure of repressive histone marks by KDM7A and UTX is essential for NF‐κB‐dependent regulation of genes that control inflammatory responses of ECs.

Global hydrological models (GHMs) have become an established tool to simulate water resources worldwide. Most of the GHMs are however uncalibrated and typically use a set of basic hydrological parameters, that could potentially lead to unrealistic projections of the terrestrial water cycle. The calibration of hydrological models is usually performed by using and comparing modeled to observed discharge. Accurate station data and reliable time series data of discharge are, however, often not available for many parts of the world and classic calibration approaches are therefore not feasible. In this paper, we aim to develop a new calibration approach that requires no additional data, is easy to implement, and substantially improves model performance, especially in regions where uncalibrated model performance is rather poor. This is achieved by using the Budyko framework, which provides a conceptual representation of the long‐term water and energy balance. We use a state‐of‐the‐art GHM and calibrate the model within nine river catchments of different sizes and characteristics. Since observed river discharge is available for these catchments, we are able to compare the Budyko‐based calibration approach to a classic discharge‐based calibration scheme and the uncalibrated model version. In all catchments, the Budyko‐based calibration approach decreases biases and increases model performance compared to the uncalibrated model version although performance improvements obtained through a classic calibration approach are greater. Nonetheless, a Budyko‐based calibration is a valuable, intermediate approach between use of a basic set of a priori hydrological parameters and classical calibration against discharge data.

Koutatsu Nagai,1 Kayoko Tamaki,2 Hiroshi Kusunoki,2 Yosuke Wada,3 Shotaro Tsuji,4 Masako Ito,5 Kyoko Sano,5 Manabu Amano,6 Soji Shimomura,7 Ken Shinmura2 1Department of Physical Therapy, School of Rehabilitation, Hyogo University of Health Sciences, Kobe, Japan; 2Department of General Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Nishinomiya, Japan; 3Department of Rehabilitation, Hyogo College of Medicine Sasayama Medical Center, Sasayama, Japan; 4Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Hyogo College of Medicine Sasayama Medical Center, Sasayama, Japan; 5Department of Occupational Therapy, School of Rehabilitation, Hyogo University of Health Sciences, Kobe, Japan; 6School of Pharmacy, Hyogo University of Health Sciences, Kobe, Japan; 7Department of General Medicine and Community Health Science, Hyogo College of Medicine Sasayama Medical Center, Sasayama, Japan Objectives: Recently, isotemporal substitution has been developed to substitute activity time for an equivalent amount of another activity. This study employed this method to demonstrate the effects of replacing sedentary behavior (SB) time with an equivalent amount of light-intensity physical activity (LPA) and moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) on the risk for different severities of frailty.Methods: A total of 886 older adults (average age 73.6 years, female 70%) participated in this cross-sectional study. Frailty status was assessed according to the cardiovascular health study criteria.Main outcome measures: Wrist-worn accelerometers were used to measure SB, LPA, and MVPA. Isotemporal substitution models were applied to show the estimated effects of substituting 30 min of SB with an equal amount of time spent in LPA or MVPA on the risk for pre-frailty and frailty.Results: The physical activity level and SB were not associated with the incidence of pre-frailty. However, a 16% (OR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.78–0.90) and 42% (OR: 0.58; 95% CI: 0.37–0.92) decrease in frailty risk was noted when SB was substituted with LPA and MVPA, respectively, in the crude model. In the adjusted model, the significant effect was sustained for LPA (OR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.80–0.92) but not for MVPA (OR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.47–1.17).Conclusions: This study indicates that replacing 30 min of SB with an equivalent amount of LPA decreases the risk for frailty in older adults. Moreover, increasing LPA seems more feasible than increasing MVPA in older adults, with substantial benefit. Keywords: isotemporal substitution, frailty, physical activity, sedentary behavior

Yosuke Wada,1 Yoshiaki Kitaguchi,1 Masanori Yasuo,1 Fumika Ueno,1 Satoshi Kawakami,2 Kiyoyasu Fukushima,3 Keisaku Fujimoto,4 Masayuki Hanaoka1 1First Department of Internal Medicine, Shinshu University School of Medicine, Matsumoto, Nagano, Japan; 2Department of Radiology, Shinshu University School of Medicine, Matsumoto, Nagano, Japan; 3Department of Respiratory Medicine, Japanese Red Cross Nagasaki Genbaku Isahaya Hospital, Isahaya, Nagasaki, Japan; 4Departments of Clinical Laboratory Sciences, Shinshu University School of Health Sciences, Matsumoto, Nagano, Japan Introduction: This study was conducted in order to investigate the diversity of respiratory physiology, including the respiratory impedance and reversibility of airway obstruction, based on quantitative computed tomography (CT) in patients with COPD. Patients and methods: Medical records of 174 stable COPD patients were retrospectively reviewed to obtain the patients’ clinical data, including the pulmonary function and imaging data. According to the software-based quantification of the degree of emphysema and airway wall thickness, the patients were classified into the “normal by CT” phenotype, the airway-dominant phenotype, the emphysema-dominant phenotype, and the mixed phenotype. The pulmonary function, including the respiratory impedance evaluated by using the forced oscillation technique (FOT) and the reversibility of airway obstruction in response to inhaled short-acting β2-agonists, was then compared among the four phenotypes. Results: The respiratory system resistance at 5 and 20 Hz (R5 and R20) was significantly higher, and the respiratory system reactance at 5 Hz (X5) was significantly more negative in the airway-dominant and mixed phenotypes than in the other phenotypes. The within-breath changes of X5 (ΔX5) were significantly greater in the mixed phenotype than in the “normal by CT” and emphysema-dominant phenotypes. The FOT parameters (R5, R20, and X5) were significantly correlated with indices of the degree of airway wall thickness and significantly but weakly correlated with the reversibility of airway obstruction. There was no significant correlation between the FOT parameters (R5, R20, and X5) and the degree of emphysema. Conclusion: There is a diversity of respiratory physiology, including the respiratory impedance and reversibility of airway obstruction, based on quantitative CT in patients with COPD. The FOT measurements may reflect the degree of airway disease and aid in detecting airway remodeling in patients with COPD. Keywords: FOT, respiratory impedance, MostGraph, AWT-Pi10

We present a precise measurement of 3He analyzing powers for p-3He elastic scattering with the polarized 3He target at 50, 65, 70, and 100 MeV. The data at 65 and 70 MeV are compared with the theoretical predictions based on the modern nucleon-nucleon potentials. Large discrepancies between the data and the predictions are clearly seen at the angles where the 3He analyzing power takes the minimum and maximum values, which are not explained by Δ-isobar effects.

Fast population and economic growth has largely influenced anthropogenic inputs and riverine export of nitrogen (N) in China, posing risks to human health, water security and ecosystem functioning. Such growth is projected in the coming decades in South Asia and Africa. Climate change adds another level of uncertainty to N pollution in rivers and coastal water. To analyze the impact of these changes, we selected three large river basins of different levels of anthropogenic influence (Indus, Yangtze and Zambezi) and modelled the current (2010) and future (2050) N export to rivers and coastal water. N export was simulated by the MARINA model (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs), which utilizes outputs from a wide range of models e.g., for crop, land use, nutrients and hydrology. Three scenarios are used for 2050 based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), representing sustainable (SSP1-RCP2.6), business-as-usual (SSP2-RCP4.5) and high inequality/emission (SSP3-RCP6.0) pathways. Results consistently show the dominant contribution from human activities (agriculture and domestic wastewater) to N export in Yangtze and Indus. In Zambezi, natural sources currently dominate N export (>70%), but substantial increase of human-induced N sources is projected by 2050, especially from domestic wastewater due to the doubling population and limited infrastructure. Although a slight reduction of N export in Yantgze is possible in case of sustainable development (SSP1-RCP2.6), increase of N export by up to 100% is projected in Indus and Zambezi in all scenarios. The impact of climate change is less evident among the scenarios and basins. Nevertheless, intra-basin spatial variability and inter-annual temporal variability of runoff and discharge have a noticeable impact on those of N export. These results suggest that ambitious N management strategies will be needed, especially in Indus and Zambezi for domestic wastewater.

This project was funded as part of the National Geographic Society and Rolex partnership to support a Perpetual Planet. Mountains are the water towers of the world, supplying a substantial part of both natural and anthropogenic water demands1,2. They are highly sensitive and prone to climate change3,4, yet their importance and vulnerability have not been quantified at the global scale. Here, we present a global Water Tower Index, which ranks all water towers in terms of their water-supplying role and the downstream dependence of ecosystems and society. For each tower, we assess its vulnerability related to water stress, governance, hydropolitical tension and future climatic and socio-economic changes. We conclude that the most important water towers are also among the most vulnerable, and that climatic and socio-economic changes will affect them profoundly. This could negatively impact 1.9 billion people living in (0.3 billion) or directly downstream of (1.6 billion) mountain areas. Immediate action is required to safeguard the future of the world’s most important and vulnerable water towers. Postprint

We consider the density field $f(x)$ generated by a volume source $\mu(y)$ in $D$ which is a domain in $\R^3$. For two disjoint segments $\gamma, \Gamma_1$ on a straight line in $\R^3 \setminus \ooo{D}$, we establish a conditional stability estimate of H\"older type in determining $f$ on $\Gamma_1$ by data $f$ on $\gamma$. This is a theoretical background for real-use solutions for the determination of air dose rates of radioactive substance at the human height level by high-altitude data. The proof of the stability estimate is based on the harmonic extension and the stability for line unique continuation of a harmonic function.

Groundwater in sub-Saharan Africa supports livelihoods and poverty alleviation(1,2), maintains vital ecosystems, and strongly influences terrestrial water and energy budgets(3). Yet the hydrological processes that govern groundwater recharge and sustainability-and their sensitivity to climatic variability-are poorly constrained(4,5). Given the absence of firm observational constraints, it remains to be seen whether model-based projections of decreased water resources in dry parts of the region(4) are justified. Here we show, through analysis of multidecadal groundwater hydrographs across sub-Saharan Africa, that levels of aridity dictate the predominant recharge processes, whereas local hydrogeology influences the type and sensitivity of precipitation-recharge relationships. Recharge in some humid locations varies by as little as five per cent (by coefficient of variation) across a wide range of annual precipitation values. Other regions, by contrast, show roughly linear precipitation-recharge relationships, with precipitation thresholds (of roughly ten millimetres or less per day) governing the initiation of recharge. These thresholds tend to rise as aridity increases, and recharge in drylands is more episodic and increasingly dominated by focused recharge through losses from ephemeral overland flows. Extreme annual recharge is commonly associated with intense rainfall and flooding events, themselves often driven by large-scale climate controls. Intense precipitation, even during years of lower overall precipitation, produces some of the largest years of recharge in some dry subtropical locations. Our results therefore challenge the 'high certainty' consensus regarding decreasing water resources(4) in such regions of sub-Saharan Africa. The potential resilience of groundwater to climate variability in many areas that is revealed by these precipitation-recharge relationships is essential for informing reliable predictions of climate-change impacts and adaptation strategies.

This study proposes a GAP/N2O direct-injection type gas-hybrid rocket system, aiming at a small satellite thruster with high-density specific thrust without gunpowder. This is a simple system that eliminates the pressurization mechanism of the oxidizing agent by using nitrous oxide with a high vapor pressure using the self-exothermic decomposition characteristics of GAP, which is a high-density and high-energy fuel, and achieves high-density specific thrust. Here, the result of the experiment in which an average thrust of 350 N was generated using the blowdown system of N2O with the future satellite installation in the visual field is shown.

The risk of seasonal mismatches between electricity supply and demand is increasing due to expanded use of wind, solar and hydropower resources. Power system planners are thus in search of low-cost seasonal energy storage options. Seasonal Pumped-Storage (SPS) can provide short, medium and long-term energy storage at a relatively low-cost and provides co-benefits in the form of freshwater storage capacity. Here, we present the first global assessment of SPS potential, using a novel plant-siting methodology and high-resolution topographical and hydrological data. Our results show that SPS costs vary from 0.007 to 0.2 $/m3 of water stored, 1.8 to 50 $/MWh of energy stored and 0.37 to 0.6 $/GW of installed power generation capacity. The estimated world energy storage capacity below a cost of 50 $/MWh is 17.3 PWh, approximately 79% of the world electricity consumption in 2017.

In the past decades, nutrient enrichment in African water bodies has been frequently reported and lead to water security challenges, such as unsafe drinking water and compromised local livelihood. Meanwhile, rapid population growth and land-use change towards intensified food production are projected in Africa. Substantial increases in anthropogenic nutrient inputs (e.g. human waste and fertilizer) to the terrestrial and aquatic environments are therefore expected. This may further deteriorate African water bodies and threaten water security. As part of the Integrated Solution for Water, Land and Energy (IS-WEL) project funded by Global Environmental Facility and IIASA, this study aims to assess the status and projected changes of nitrogen (N) sources, associated inputs to rivers and export to sea. The study focuses on the Zambezi river basin, the 4th largest transboundary basin in Africa draining through 8 countries. N inputs to rivers and export to sea are estimated using the MARINA model (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs) under current conditions and future climate, land use and socio-economic scenarios towards 2050. In addition to global climate (Representative Concentration Pathways) and socioeconomic (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios, the study co-developed regional scenarios through stakeholder engagement in cooperation with the Zambezi Watercourse Commission. The regional scenarios, especially for sanitation and agricultural development, will later be incorporated in the model. Preliminary results show that for the current period (2010), N input to rivers and export to sea are mainly from natural sources, namely N fixation by the natural ecosystems and organic N leaching from non-agricultural areas. By 2050, N sources in the basin will be more than doubled due to anthropogenic inputs based on the global scenarios. Consequently, the fraction of human-induced N export is projected to increase considerably. Additionally, N export to sea is strongly influenced by the intra- and inter-annual climate variabilities in the region. The study highlights the need to simultaneously consider source control and climate adaptation in the regional contexts to minimize further N-induced deterioration of water bodies and ensure regional water security.

著者人数: 47名, Accepted: 2016-04-18, 資料番号: SA1160285000

Yoshiyuki Wada, Yuko Takami, Masaki Tateishi, Tomoki Ryu, Kazuhiro Mikagi, Hideki SaitsuDepartment of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Clinical Research Institute, National Hospital Organization Kyushu Medical Center, Fukuoka, JapanBackground: Five or more colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) are considered marginally resectable and cannot be treated solely by hepatic resection (Hr). This study investigated the long-term effectiveness of surgical treatment using microwave coagulo-necrotic therapy (MCN) and/or Hr for marginally resectable or unresectable multiple CRLM.Methods: This study retrospectively analyzed 82 consecutive CRLM patients with ≥5 CRLM who underwent MCN, Hr, or both, at our institution from 1994 to 2012. Presuming all CRLM were resected curatively, virtual remnant liver volume was calculated using preoperative computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging. Virtual remnant liver volume

Yoshiyuki Wada, Yuko Takami, Masaki Tateishi, Tomoki Ryu, Kazuhiro Mikagi, Hideki Saitsu Department of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Clinical Research Institute, National Hospital Organization Kyushu Medical Center, Fukuoka, Japan Background: Sorafenib therapy improves survival in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients without an objective response. The present study investigated whether the initial imaging response might be a prognostic indicator after administration of sorafenib therapy in HCC patients.Patients and methods: This retrospective study reviewed unresectable HCC patients undergoing sorafenib therapy. Patients evaluated without complete response, partial response (PR), or progressive disease (PD) at the initial imaging response evaluation by modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors were divided into three groups according to more detailed categorization of the shrinkage/progression ratio in initial imaging response. A comparison of progression-free and overall survival among these groups was performed.Results: Of the 43 non-PR non-PD patients with target lesions, ten (23.3%) exhibited mild response (MR; -30% to -5%), 14 (32.6%) exhibited no change (NC; -5% to +5%), and 19 (44.2%) exhibited mild-PD (MPD; +5% to +20%). There was no statistical difference in progression-free or overall survival between MR and NC patients. The median progression-free survivals in NC+MR and mild-PD patients were 15.0 and 5.3 months, respectively (P

In the past decades, nutrient enrichment in African water bodies has been frequently reported and associated to long-term ecological and socio-economic consequences, such as species extinction, unsafe drinking water and compromised local livelihood. Meanwhile, rapid population growth and land-use change towards intensified food production are projected in Africa. As a result, substantial increases are expected in human-induced nutrient inputs (e.g. human waste and fertilizer) to the terrestrial and aquatic environments. This may potentially further deteriorate African water bodies. As part of the Integrated Solution for Water, Land and Energy (IS-WEL) project, this study aims to assess the status and projected changes of nutrient sources, inputs to rivers and export to seas, shading light on possible solutions to minimize further nutrient-induced deterioration of the water bodies and maximize the availability of water of suitable quality for different sectors. This study focuses on the Zambezi river basin, the fourth largest transboundary basin draining through eight southern African countries. Nutrient sources, inputs to rivers and export to sea are estimated using the MARINA model (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs) under current conditions and future climate, land use and socio-economic projections up to 2050. Results show that for the current period (2005-2010), inputs of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) to rivers and their export to sea are mainly attributed to natural sources. These sources include nitrogen fixation by the natural ecosystems, phosphorus weathering, and leaching of organic nitrogen and phosphorus from non-agricultural areas. By 2050, nutrient sources will be at least doubled due to anthropogenic inputs in the basin. Consequently, the fraction of human-induced nutrient export are projected to increase considerably, especially for dissolved inorganic phosphorus from domestic wastewater. Additionally, nutrient export to sea is strongly influenced by the intra- and inter-annual precipitation and discharge variabilities in the region. The study highlights the need to simultaneously consider source control, infrastructure development and climate adaptation to minimize further nutrient-induced deterioration of water bodies.

Objective IgG4-related disease (IgG4-RD) can cause fibroinflammatory lesions in nearly any organ. Correlation among clinical, serologic, radiologic, and pathologic data is required for diagnosis. This work was undertaken to develop and validate an international set of classification criteria for IgG4-RD. Methods An international multispecialty group of 86 physicians was assembled by the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) and the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR). Investigators used consensus exercises, existing literature, derivation and validation cohorts of 1,879 subjects (1,086 cases, 793 mimickers), and multicriterion decision analysis to identify, weight, and test potential classification criteria. Two independent validation cohorts were included. Results A 3-step classification process was developed. First, it must be demonstrated that a potential IgG4-RD case has involvement of at least 1 of 11 possible organs in a manner consistent with IgG4-RD. Second, exclusion criteria consisting of a total of 32 clinical, serologic, radiologic, and pathologic items must be applied; the presence of any of these criteria eliminates the patient from IgG4-RD classification. Third, 8 weighted inclusion criteria domains, addressing clinical findings, serologic results, radiology assessments, and pathology interpretations, are applied. In the first validation cohort, a threshold of 20 points had a specificity of 99.2% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 97.2-99.8%) and a sensitivity of 85.5% (95% CI 81.9-88.5%). In the second, the specificity was 97.8% (95% CI 93.7-99.2%) and the sensitivity was 82.0% (95% CI 77.0-86.1%). The criteria were shown to have robust test characteristics over a wide range of thresholds. Conclusion ACR/EULAR classification criteria for IgG4-RD have been developed and validated in a large cohort of patients. These criteria demonstrate excellent test performance and should contribute substantially to future clinical, epidemiologic, and basic science investigations.

In the last three decades, Global hydrological models (GHMs) have become an established tool to simulate water resources worldwide, however, most of the GHMs are uncalibrated. One of the main reasons which makes calibration necessary is large uncertainty in input data, parameters, model assumptions and grid cell heterogeneity especially at low resolution of 0.5 deg. or even 5’. Running GHMs uncalibrated may lead to unrealistic projections of terrestrial water cycle in some regions, where input data (such as e.g., climate forcing) are not well constrained. Calibration of hydrological models is usually performed by using and comparing to observed discharge. However, for some parts of the world it is challenging to get accurate station data and reliable time series of discharge. Also the global accessibility of these data is decreasing since the 1990s. Instead of calibrating for a few stations with existing data in Africa and Asia and trying to regionalize the results, here we attempt to use the Budyko framework for calibration with the IIASA in-house global hydrological model, the Community Water Model (CWatM). This should be seen as an intermediate approach between “traditional” calibration with discharge data and no calibration at all. This method is independent of measured discharge data and a way to achieve more realistic water projections for the future in ungauged catchments. The hypothesis which is tested here is that “Budyko calibration” will be not as good as fitting simulated to the observed discharge, but it will be an improvement against an unfitted non-calibration run. Calibration is using an evolutionary computation framework. As objective function the modified version of the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) is taken. For calibration to observed discharge KGE is optimized directly. For “Budyko calibration” daily precipitation, potential evaporation and actual evapotranspiration are aggregated for each modeling grid cell over a time period of more than ten years. These sums enable us to compute coordinates in the “Budyko space”, which are subsequently optimized towards the theoretical Budyko curve. KGE is then calculated for the optimized “Budyko calibration” and for the non-calibration simulation run. We will show and discuss the results of the “Budyko calibration” for eight catchments of different size and in different flow and climate regimes worldwide.

Target 6.4 of the recently adopted Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) deals with the reduction of water scarcity. To monitor progress towards this target, two indicators are used: Indicator 6.4.1 measuring water use efficiency and 6.4.2 measuring the level of water stress (WS). This paper aims to identify whether the currently proposed indicator 6.4.2 considers the different elements that need to be accounted for in a WS indicator. WS indicators compare water use with water availability. We identify seven essential elements: 1) both gross and net water abstraction (or withdrawal) provide important information to understand WS; 2) WS indicators need to incorporate environmental flow requirements (EFR); 3) temporal and 4) spatial disaggregation is required in a WS assessment; 5) both renewable surface water and groundwater resources, including their interaction, need to be accounted for as renewable water availability; 6) alternative available water resources need to be accounted for as well, like fossil groundwater and desalinated water; 7) WS indicators need to account for water storage in reservoirs, water recycling and managed aquifer recharge. Indicator 6.4.2 considers many of these elements, but there is need for improvement. It is recommended that WS is measured based on net abstraction as well, in addition to currently only measuring WS based on gross abstraction. It does incorporate EFR. Temporal and spatial disaggregation is indeed defined as a goal in more advanced monitoring levels, in which it is also called for a differentiation between surface and groundwater resources. However, regarding element 6 and 7 there are some shortcomings for which we provide recommendations. In addition, indicator 6.4.2 is only one indicator, which monitors blue WS, but does not give information on green or green-blue water scarcity or on water quality. Within the SDG indicator framework, some of these topics are covered with other indicators.

Target 6.4 of the recently adopted Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) deals with the reduction of water scarcity. To monitor progress towards this target, two indicators are used: Indicator 6.4.1 measuring water use efficiency and 6.4.2 measuring the level of water stress (WS). This paper aims to identify whether the currently proposed indicator 6.4.2 considers the different elements that need to be accounted for in a WS indicator. WS indicators compare water use with water availability. We identify seven essential elements: 1) both gross and net water abstraction (or withdrawal) provide important information to understand WS; 2) WS indicators need to incorporate environmental flow requirements (EFR); 3) temporal and 4) spatial disaggregation is required in a WS assessment; 5) both renewable surface water and groundwater resources, including their interaction, need to be accounted for as renewable water availability; 6) alternative available water resources need to be accounted for as well, like fossil groundwater and desalinated water; 7) WS indicators need to account for water storage in reservoirs, water recycling and managed aquifer recharge. Indicator 6.4.2 considers many of these elements, but there is need for improvement. It is recommended that WS is measured based on net abstraction as well, in addition to currently only measuring WS based on gross abstraction. It does incorporate EFR. Temporal and spatial disaggregation is indeed defined as a goal in more advanced monitoring levels, in which it is also called for a differentiation between surface and groundwater resources. However, regarding element 6 and 7 there are some shortcomings for which we provide recommendations. In addition, indicator 6.4.2 is only one indicator, which monitors blue WS, but does not give information on green or green-blue water scarcity or on water quality. Within the SDG indicator framework, some of these topics are covered with other indicators.

Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from multiple climate models are used as inputs to multiple impact models, under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which are resulting in different amounts of global temperature rise. While the goal is generally to investigate the relevance of changes in climate for the water cycle, water resources or hydrological extremes, it is often the case that variations in other components of the model chain obscure the effect of climate scenario variation. This is particularly important when assessing the impacts of relatively lower magnitudes of global warming, such as those associated with the aspirational goals of the Paris Agreement. In our study, we use ANOVA (ANalyses Of VAriance) to allocate and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in the hydrological impact modelling chain. In turn we determine the statistical significance of different sources of uncertainty. We achieve this by using a set of 5 climate models and up to 13 hydrological models, for 9 large scale river basins across the globe, under 4 emissions scenarios. The impact variable we consider in our analysis is daily river discharge. We analyze overall water availability and flow regime, including seasonality, high flows and low flows. Scaling effects are investigated by separately looking at discharge generated by global and regional hydrological models respectively. Finally, we compare our results with other recently published studies. We find that small differences in global temperature rise associated with some emissions scenarios have mostly significant impacts on river discharge – however, climate model related uncertainty is so large that it obscures the sensitivity of the hydrological system.

Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from multiple climate models are used as inputs to multiple impact models, under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which are resulting in different amounts of global temperature rise. While the goal is generally to investigate the relevance of changes in climate for the water cycle, water resources or hydrological extremes, it is often the case that variations in other components of the model chain obscure the effect of climate scenario variation. This is particularly important when assessing the impacts of relatively lower magnitudes of global warming, such as those associated with the aspirational goals of the Paris Agreement. In our study, we use ANOVA (ANalyses Of VAriance) to allocate and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in the hydrological impact modelling chain. In turn we determine the statistical significance of different sources of uncertainty. We achieve this by using a set of 5 climate models and up to 13 hydrological models, for 9 large scale river basins across the globe, under 4 emissions scenarios. The impact variable we consider in our analysis is daily river discharge. We analyze overall water availability and flow regime, including seasonality, high flows and low flows. Scaling effects are investigated by separately looking at discharge generated by global and regional hydrological models respectively. Finally, we compare our results with other recently published studies. We find that small differences in global temperature rise associated with some emissions scenarios have mostly significant impacts on river discharge – however, climate model related uncertainty is so large that it obscures the sensitivity of the hydrological system.

In the hydrologic cycle, continental landmasses constitute a sink for atmospheric moisture as annual terrestrial precipitation commonly exceeds evapotranspiration. Simultaneously, humans intervene in the hydrologic cycle and pump groundwater to sustain, for example, drinking water and food production. Here we use a coupled groundwater‐to‐atmosphere modeling platform, set up over the European continent, to study the influence of groundwater pumping and irrigation on the net atmospheric moisture import of the continental landmasses, which defines the strength of the continental sink. Water use scenarios are constructed to account for uncertainties of atmospheric feedback during the heatwave year 2003. We find that human water use induces groundwater‐to‐atmosphere feedback, which potentially weaken the continental sink over arid watersheds in southern Europe. This feedback is linked to groundwater storage, which suggests that atmospheric feedbacks to human water use may contribute to drying of watersheds, thereby raising water resources and socio‐economic concerns beyond local sustainability considerations.

Water demands for agricultural, industry, domestic and environmental uses in arid and semiarid regions continue to grow, while available surface and ground water resources remains the same or could even decline because of climate change. Decision makers need tools to support the implementation of sustainable water management policies. Hydro-economic modeling could be used for this task, because of its capacity to integrate key biophysical and socio economic components within a unified framework. However, linking a hydro-economic model with a high-resolution hydrological model is needed in order to incorporate an adequate representation of present and future elements of the water balance. Here we show the coupling of the Extended Continental-scale Hydro-economic Optimization model(ECHO), an integrated economic-technological modeling tool for application to long-term transboundary river basin planning with the Community Water Model (CWATM), a high-resolution global hydrological model. The trajectories of run-off and baseflow are simulated at high resolution (5’, daily) with CWATM and processed to define average inflow scenarios (monthly) for the sub-basin units represented in ECHO. Estimates of industrial, domestic and agricultural water withdrawals, return flows and environmental flow requirements are also taken from the hydrological simulations. Based on this, the ECHO model assesses the cost-effective combination of solutions that could address water scarcity at basin level. Solutions in this context represent transformative policies, basin-wide infrastructure configurations, and investment strategies that enable sustainable development. As an example the novel framework is applied to the Zambezi basin, the largest river basin in Southern Africa, covering 1.4 million square km across eight countries and home to about 40 million people. CWATM provides projections of water availability and demand till 2050 at high spatial resolution under alternative socio-economic and climatic scenarios, while ECHO provides information on the least-cost combination of water management options that can satisfy those water demands subject to available water resources at basin level.

Half of the planet’s population is severely impacted by severe water issues including absent or unreliable water supply, sanitation, poor water quality, unmitigated floods and droughts, and degraded water environments. In recent years, global water security has been highlighted not only by the science community but also by business leaders as one of the greatest threats to sustainable human development for different generations. How can we ensure the well-being of people and ecosystems with limited water, technology and financial resources? To evaluate this, IIASA’s Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS) is identifying a portfolios of robust and cost-effective options across different economic sectors including agriculture, energy, manufacturing, households, and environment and ecosystems. Options to increase water supply and accessibility are evaluated together with water demand management and water governance options. To test these solution-portfolios in order to obtain a clear picture of the opportunities but also of the risks and the trade-offs we have developed the Community Water Model (CWATM) which joins IIASA’s integrated assessment modeling framework, coupling hydrology with hydro-economics (ECHO model), energy (MESSAGE model) and land use (GLOBIOM model). CWATM has been developed to work flexibly with varying spatial resolutions from global to regional levels. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water and other science community worldwide, with flexibility to link to other models and integrate newly developed modules such as water quality. In order to identify the solution portfolios, we present a global hotspots assessment of water-related risks with the ability to zoom in at regional scale using the example of the Lake Victoria basin in E. Africa. We show how socio-economic and climate change will alter spatial patterns of the hydrological cycle and have regional impacts on water availability. At the same time, we assess water needs for humans and environment to identify the population and regions that are vulnerable to changes linked to extremes such as water scarcity, droughts and floods. Different solution-portfolios to facilitate regional water management planning will be further discussed.

This study focused on the development of the Extended Continental-scale Hydro-economic Optimization model (ECHO) and its application to the analysis of long-term water, energy and land use pathways for Africa. The framework is important because it integrates multi-decadal decisions surrounding investments into new water infrastructure, electric power generation and irrigation technologies. The improved linkages in ECHO reveal synergies between water allocation strategies across sectors and the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from electricity supply. The African case study features a reduced-form transboundary river network and associated environmental flow constraints covering surface and groundwater withdrawals. Interactions between local water constraints and the continental-scale economy are captured in the model through the combination of regional electricity markets. Spatially-explicit analysis of land availability is used to restrict future reservoir expansion. The analysis demonstrates the massive investments required to ensure rapidly expanding water, energy and food demands in Africa aligned with human development objectives are met in a sustainable way. Modeled constraints on environmental flows in line with presumptive ecological guidelines trigger diffusion of energy-intensive water supply technologies in water-stressed regions, with implications for the cost and speed of the electricity sector decarbonization required to achieve climate targets.