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Over the last decades, global warming has contributed to changes in marine species composition, abundance and distribution, in response to changes in oceanographic conditions such as temperature, acidification, and deoxygenation. Experimentally derived thermal limits, which are known to be related to observed latitudinal ranges, have been used to assess variations in species distribution patterns. However, such experiments cannot be undertaken on free-swimming large marine predators with wide-range distribution, like cetaceans. An alternative approach is to elicit expert's knowledge to derive species' thermal suitability and assess their thermal responses, something that has never been tested in these taxa. We developed and applied a methodology based on expert-derived thermal suitability curves and projected future responses for several species under different climate scenarios. We tested this approach with ten cetacean species currently present in the biogeographic area of Macaronesia (North Atlantic) under Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, until 2050. Overall, increases in annual thermal suitability were found for Balaenoptera edeni, Globicephala macrorhynchus, Mesoplodon densirostris, Physeter macrocephalus, Stenella frontalis, Tursiops truncatus and Ziphius cavirostris. Conversely, our results indicated a decline in thermal suitability for B. physalus, Delphinus delphis, and Grampus griseus. Our study reveals potential responses in cetaceans' thermal suitability, and potentially in other highly mobile and large predators, and it tests this method's applicability, which is a novel application for this purpose and group of species. It aims to be a cost-efficient tool to support conservation managers and practitioners. AS was funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) through the PhD grant PD/BD/135352/2017. AS, REC, HC and TCL acknowledge the support from the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) under the programmatic funding granted to cE3c Research Centre (UIDP/00329/2020). PA was funded by the Program ‘Agustín de Betancourt’ of La Laguna University and Cabildo de Tenerife throughout the project CETTUS. AD, FA and MF had the support of the Oceanic Observatory of Madeira throughout the project M1420-01-0145-FEDER-000001-OOM, of the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) throughout the strategic projects UIDB/04292/2020 and UIDP/04292/2020 granted to MARE, LA/P/0069/2020 granted to the Associate Laboratory ARNET, of the ARDITI - Madeira's Regional Agency for the Development of Research Technology and Innovation throughout the project M1420-09-5369-FSE000002, and of the Project Intertagua (Interreg MAC2/1.1a/385). MDL was funded as a contractor of the US Government under contract number: 1305M418DNFF0012. CFS acknowledges funding from FCT under the strategic project UIDB/ 04292/2020 awarded to MARE, project LA/P/0069/2020 granted to the Associate Laboratory ARNET, and FCT research contract 2020.03704. CEECIND. This research was supported by the European Union‘s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 776661, project “SOCLIMPACT—DownScaling CLImate imPACTs and decarbonisation pathways in EU islands and enhancing socioeconomic and non-market evaluation of Climate Change for Europe, for 2050 and beyond”. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

This is the pre-print version of the article "The expansion of Russian wheat land suitability in response to climate change", published as final paper in Land Use PolicyVolume 78, November 2018, Pages 70-77https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.06.035 ABSTRACT We provided an examination of the past-to-future thermal suitability for winter wheat cultivation over Russia to better understand how the increasing warming is affecting the Russian wheat sector and discuss some realistic opportunities. The analyses were carried out by means of a multi-model ensemble analysis from the most updated bias-corrected outputs from five CMIP5 Earth System Models (1951-2099) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), and the Era-Interim dataset (1979-2016). We found an average increase of thermal suitability of 10 Mha per decade over the past 30 years, consistently with the observed switch from spring to the higher yielding winter. An increase of thermal suitability toward the north-western regions and in the Far East also resulted from future projections. Conversely, an increasing risk of extreme heat events is expected to occur in the southern regions of Russia, which currently represent the most productive and intensively managed wheat cultivation area. We discussed in deep some adaptation strategies able both to take advantage of the agricultural expansion and to face the increasing temperature extremes, such as the agricultural land recovery, identification of the optimal sowing period, crop and variety switching.

The emergence of Russia as a major grain exporter is not only crucial for the world commercial agriculture and food security, but also for the country’s economy. Here we examine the past-to-future thermal suitability for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum, L. 1753) cultivation over Russia and compare it with the recent trends of wheat yields and harvested area. The analyses use a multi-model ensemble median of the most updated bias-corrected outputs from five CMIP5 Earth System Models (1950–2099) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the Era-Interim dataset (1979–2016). Our results show that the thermal suitability has increased by ∼10 Mha per decade since 1980. Consistently, winter wheat yields and harvested area have also increased over the last decade by ∼0.5 t/ha and ∼4 Mha, respectively. Moreover, a potential for the Russian wheat sector may still be exploited if we consider the abandoned land (∼27 Mha) after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Our results also show that the increase in heat availability and the reduction of the frost constraint will likely move the thermal suitability toward the north-western and the Far East regions. Conversely, increases of extreme heat events are projected in the southern regions of Russia, which currently represent the most productive and intensively managed wheat cultivation area. Our findings imply both opportunities and risks for the Russian wheat sector that calls for sustainable and farsighted land management strategies to comprehensively face the consequences of global warming.