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This study analyses the variability and trends of ultraviolet-B (UV-B, wavelength 280–320 nm) radiation that can cause DNA damage. The variability and trends caused by climate change due to enhanced greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. The analysis is based on DNA-active irradiance, total ozone, total cloud cover, and surface albedo calculations with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts – Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) chemistry–climate model (CCM) free-running simulations following the RCP 6.0 climate scenario for the period 1960–2100. The model output is evaluated with DNA-active irradiance ground-based measurements, satellite SBUV (v8.7) total-ozone measurements, and satellite MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra cloud cover data. The results show that the model reproduces the observed variability and change in total ozone, DNA-active irradiance, and cloud cover for the period 2000–2018 quite well according to the statistical comparisons. Between 50∘ N–50∘ S, the DNA-damaging UV radiation is expected to decrease until 2050 and to increase thereafter, as was shown previously by Eleftheratos et al. (2020). This change is associated with decreases in the model total cloud cover and negative trends in total ozone after about 2050 due to increasing GHGs. The new study confirms the previous work by adding more stations over low latitudes and mid-latitudes (13 instead of 5 stations). In addition, we include estimates from high-latitude stations with long-term measurements of UV irradiance (three stations in the northern high latitudes and four stations in the southern high latitudes greater than 55∘). In contrast to the predictions for 50∘ N–50∘ S, it is shown that DNA-active irradiance will continue to decrease after the year 2050 over high latitudes because of upward ozone trends. At latitudes poleward of 55∘ N, we estimate that DNA-active irradiance will decrease by 8.2 %±3.8 % from 2050 to 2100. Similarly, at latitudes poleward of 55∘ S, DNA-active irradiance will decrease by 4.8 % ± 2.9 % after 2050. The results for the high latitudes refer to the summer period and not to the seasons when ozone depletion occurs, i.e. in late winter and spring. The contributions of ozone, cloud, and albedo trends to the DNA-active irradiance trends are estimated and discussed.

Future increases in stratospheric water vapour risk amplifying climate change and slowing down the recovery of the ozone layer. However, state-of-the-art climate models strongly disagree on the magnitude of these increases under global warming. Uncertainty primarily arises from the complex processes leading to dehydration of air during its tropical ascent into the stratosphere. Here we derive an observational constraint on this longstanding uncertainty. We use a statistical learning approach to infer historical co-variations between the atmospheric temperature structure and tropical lower stratospheric water vapour concentrations. For climate models, we demonstrate that these historically constrained relationships are highly predictive of the water vapour response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. We obtain an observationally constrained range for stratospheric water vapour changes per degree of global warming of 0.31 +/- 0.39~ppmv/K. Across 61 climate models, we find that a large fraction of future model projections are inconsistent with observational evidence. In particular, frequently projected strong increases (>1 ppmv/K) are highly unlikely. Our constraint represents a 50% decrease in the 95th percentile of the climate model uncertainty distribution, which has implications for surface warming, ozone recovery, and the tropospheric circulation response under climate change.

Radiosonde data is one of the data that can be used for upper-air climatological analysis. Pressure, air temperature (T), dew point temperature (Td), wind, and humidity (RH) are the types of data provided by radiosondes. Unfortunately, the utilization of radiosonde data in Indonesia has not been optimal, resulting in a lack of understanding of seasonal air parameter patterns and the vertical structure of the trend of changes in upper-air temperature in Indonesia. This study aims to analyze the seasonal upper-air parameters and analyze the vertical structure of the trend of changes in upper-air temperature in Indonesia. This study uses radiosonde data from 10 radiosonde observation stations in Indonesia. The analysis of seasonal air parameters was carried out by finding the average seasonal value, while the analysis of air temperature trends was carried out using the Mann-Kendall method. The results indicate that the dew point temperature is distinctly different seasonally than the seasonal air temperature. The seasonal dew point temperature difference ranges from 0.5 to 13 oC, while the seasonal air temperature difference ranges from -0.6 to 1.1 oC. The smaller T-Td value, the greater RH value. The trends in upper-air temperature show that most of the study area shows a trend of heating of the upper-air temperature in the troposphere (1000-250 mb), which is between 0.00005 to0.00058 oC/13 years, 0.00012 to 0.00031 oC/9 years, and 0.00009 to 0.00042 oC/10 years and cooling in the lower stratosphere(100 mb) is -0.00011 to -0.00067 oC/13 years.

The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) volcano on 15 January 2022 injected large amounts of water vapor (H2O) directly into the stratosphere. While normal background levels of stratospheric H2O are not detectable in radio occultation (RO) measurements, effects of the HTHH eruption are clearly observed as anomalous refractivity profiles from COSMIC-2, suggesting the possibility of detecting the HTHH H2O signal. To separate temperature and H2O effects on refractivity, we use co-located temperature observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) to constrain a simplified H2O retrieval. Our results show enhancements of H2O up to ~2500–3500 ppmv in the stratosphere (~29–33 km) in the days following the HTHH eruption, with propagating patterns that follow the dispersing volcanic plume. The stratospheric H2O profiles derived from RO are in reasonable agreement with limited radiosonde observations over Australia. The H2O profiles during the first few days after the eruption show descent of the plume at a rate of ~−1 km/day, likely due to strong radiative cooling (~−10 K/day) induced by high H2O concentrations; slower descent (~−200 m/day) is observed over the following week as the plume disperses. The total mass of H2O injected by HTHH is estimated as 110 ± 14 Tg from measurements in the early plumes during 16–18 January, which equates to approximately 8% of the background global mass of stratospheric H2O. These RO measurements provide novel quantification of the unprecedented H2O amounts and the plume evolution during the first week after the HTHH eruption.

Chlorine radicals are strong atmospheric oxidants known to play an important role in the depletion of surface ozone and the degradation of methane in the Arctic troposphere. Initial oxidation processes of chlorine produce chlorine oxides, and it has been speculated that the final oxidation steps lead to the formation of chloric (HClO3) and perchloric (HClO4) acids, although these two species have not been detected in the atmosphere. Here, we present atmospheric observations of gas-phase HClO3 and HClO4. Significant levels of HClO3 were observed during springtime at Greenland (Villum Research Station), Ny-Ålesund research station and over the central Arctic Ocean, on-board research vessel Polarstern during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of the Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) campaign, with estimated concentrations up to 7 × 106 molecule cm−3. The increase in HClO3, concomitantly with that in HClO4, was linked to the increase in bromine levels. These observations indicated that bromine chemistry enhances the formation of OClO, which is subsequently oxidized into HClO3 and HClO4 by hydroxyl radicals. HClO3 and HClO4 are not photoactive and therefore their loss through heterogeneous uptake on aerosol and snow surfaces can function as a previously missing atmospheric sink for reactive chlorine, thereby reducing the chlorine-driven oxidation capacity in the Arctic boundary layer. Our study reveals additional chlorine species in the atmosphere, providing further insights into atmospheric chlorine cycling in the polar environment, National Natural Science Foundation of China (42175118), European Research Council Executive Agency under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program (Project ERC-2016-COG726349 CLIMAHAL, ERC-StG GASPARCON - grant agreement no. 714621, The EMME-CARE project – grant agreement no. 856612, and grant no. 101002728, ATM-GTP Contract No. 742206), Climate Relevant interactions and feedbacks: the key role of sea ice and Snow in the polar and global climate system(CRiceS, grant number 101003826), Horizon Europe project Non-CO2 Forcers and their Climate, Weather, Air Quality and Health Impacts, (FOCI, project number 101056783), ACCC Flagship funded by the Academy of Finland grant no. 337549, Academy professorship funded by the Academy of Finland (grant no. 302958, Academy of Finland (project nos. 296628, 328290, 311932, 316114, 325647, 325681, 334792, 337549, 329274, 333397, 328616, 1325656, 347782, 349659, and 334514), United States National Science Foundation (grant nos. 1807496 and 1807163), Swiss National Science Foundation (grant 200021_188478), Swiss Polar Institute (grant no. DIRCR-2018-004, The Ingvar Kamprad Chair for Extreme Environments Research, sponsored by Ferring Pharmaceuticals, La Caixa” Foundation (ID 100010434) for the fellowship LCF/BQ/DR20/11790027, Spanish “Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MICINN)” for funding (Project ref. CTQ2017-87054-C2-2-P, Unit of Excellence María de Maeztu CEX2019-000919-M and “Ramón y Cajal” grant RYC- 2015-19234, International Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition with the MOSAiC20192020 tag, with activities supported by Polarstern76 expedition AWI_PS122_00, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) for the provision of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) transport and dispersion model and/or Real-time Environmental Applications and Display sYstem (READY)

The Nimbus 7 limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere (LIMS) instrument operated from October 25, 1978, through May 28, 1979. Its Version 6 (V6) profiles and their Level 3 or zonal Fourier coefficient products have been characterized and archived in 2008 and in 2011, respectively. This paper focuses on the value and use of daily ozone maps from Level 3, based on a gridding of its zonal coefficients. We present maps of V6 ozone on pressure surfaces and compare them with several rocket-borne chemiluminescent ozone measurements that extend into the lower mesosphere. Daily, synoptic maps of V6 ozone and temperature illustrate that they are an important aid in interpreting satellite limb-infrared emission versus local measurements, especially when they occur during dynamically active periods of northern hemisphere winter. We then show a sequence of V6 maps of upper stratospheric ozone, spanning the minor stratospheric warmings of late January and early February 1979. The map sequence of V6 geopotential height reveals how ozone was changing in the vortex and at the centers of adjacent anticyclones. We also report on zonal variations of the tertiary ozone maximum of the upper mesosphere and its associated temperature fields during winter. These several examples provide a guide to researchers for further exploratory analyses of middle atmosphere ozone from LIMS.

A major strong sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) occurred in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratosphere in 2002 (hereafter referred to as SSW2002), which is one of the most unusual winters in the SH. Following several warmings, the polar vortex broke down in midwinter. Eastward-traveling waves and their interaction with quasi-stationary planetary waves played an important role during this event. This study analyzed the Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55) dataset to examine the SSW event that occurred in the SH in 2019 (hereafter referred to as SSW2019). In 2019, a rapid temperature increase and decelerated westerly winds were observed at the polar cap, but since there was no reversal of westerly winds to easterly winds at 60∘ S in the middle to lower stratosphere, the SSW2019 was classified as a minor warming event. The results showed that quasi-stationary planetary waves of zonal wavenumber 1 developed during the SSW2019. The strong vertical component of the Eliassen–Palm flux with zonal wavenumber 1 is indicative of pronounced propagation of planetary waves to the stratosphere. The wave driving in September 2019 was larger than that of the major SSW event in 2002. Major SSWs tend to accompany preceding minor warmings, preconditioning, which changes the zonal flow that weaken the polar night jet as seen in SSW2002. A similar preconditioning was hardly observed in SSW2019. The strong wave driving in SSW2019 occurred in high latitudes. Waveguides (i.e., positive values of the refractive index squared) were found at high latitudes in the upper stratosphere during the warming period, which provided favorable conditions for quasi-stationary planetary waves to propagate upward and poleward.

For the past 17 years, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) instrument on the Canadian SCISAT satellite has been measuring profiles of atmospheric ozone. The latest operational versions of the level 2 ozone data are versions 3.6 and 4.1. This study characterizes how both products compare with correlative data from other limb-sounding satellite instruments, namely MAESTRO, MLS, OSIRIS, SABER, and SMR. In general, v3.6, with respect to the other instruments, exhibits a smaller bias (which is on the order of ∼ 3 %) in the middle stratosphere than v4.1 (∼ 2 %–9 %); however, the bias exhibited in the v4.1 data tends to be more stable, i.e. not changing significantly over time in any altitude region. In the lower stratosphere, v3.6 has a positive bias of about 3 %–5 % that is stable to within ±1 % per decade, and v4.1 has a bias on the order of −1 % to +5 % and is also stable to within ±1 % per decade. In the middle stratosphere, v3.6 has a positive bias of ∼ 3 % with a significant negative drift on the order of 0.5 %–2.5 % per decade, and v4.1 has a positive bias of 2 %–9 % that is stable to within ±0.5 % per decade. In the upper stratosphere, v3.6 has a positive bias that increases with altitude up to ∼ 16 % and a significant negative drift on the order of 2 %–3 % per decade, and v4.1 has a positive bias that increases with altitude up to ∼ 15 % and is stable to within ±1 % per decade. Estimates indicate that both versions 3.6 and 4.1 have precision values on the order of 0.1–0.2 ppmv below 20 km and above 45 km (∼ 5 %–10 %, depending on altitude). Between 20 and 45 km, the estimated v3.6 precision of ∼ 4 %–6 % is better than the estimated v4.1 precision of ∼ 6 %–10 %.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is an extratropical pattern that influences the climate of all Southern Hemisphere. However, the variability of this mode is an active area of research. The influence of lower frequency modes on SAM is a path to better knowledge about this pattern. The relationship between Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and SAM’s counterpart in the Northern Hemisphere (Northern Annular Mode) has been addressed by previous work. Still, few studies focus on the association between QBO and SAM. The goal of this work was to evaluate the possible QBO-SAM relationship through statistical analyses. This association was investigated by comparing QBO and SAM indices, the latter on different levels of the troposphere and stratosphere, for the 1981-2010 period. The wavelet analysis showed that the SAM indices for troposphere and stratosphere presented variability in many scales, including a two-year band. Cross-wavelets techniques between QBO and SAM ratified that this relation has a complex interaction. There was a significant common high power around the two-year band, with lags varying over the analyzed period, including no lag. Further analysis without lag confirmed previous studies, indicating that the negative (positive) SAM phase is more frequent for easterly (westerly) QBO. However, this was not valid for all months. Some additional analysis suggested that the upward wave propagation to the stratosphere for each QBO phase changes the stratospheric jet and, consequently, the SAM phase.

Stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) is an important source of tropospheric ozone, affecting all of atmospheric chemistry, climate, and air quality. The study of impacts needs STE fluxes to be resolved by latitude and month, and for this, we rely on global chemistry models, whose results diverge greatly. Overall, we lack guidance from model–measurement metrics that inform us about processes and patterns related to the STE flux of ozone (O3). In this work, we use modeled tracers (N2O and CFCl3), whose distributions and budgets can be constrained by satellite and surface observations, allowing us to follow stratospheric signals across the tropopause. The satellite-derived photochemical loss of N2O on annual and quasi-biennial cycles can be matched by the models. The STE flux of N2O-depleted air in our chemistry transport model drives surface variability that closely matches observed fluctuations on both annual and quasi-biennial cycles, confirming the modeled flux. The observed tracer correlations between N2O and O3 in the lowermost stratosphere provide a hemispheric scaling of the N2O STE flux to that of O3. For N2O and CFCl3, we model greater southern hemispheric STE fluxes, a result supported by some metrics, but counter to the prevailing theory of wave-driven stratospheric circulation. The STE flux of O3, however, is predominantly northern hemispheric, but evidence shows that this is caused by the Antarctic ozone hole reducing southern hemispheric O3 STE by 14 %. Our best estimate of the current STE O3 flux based on a range of constraints is 400 Tg(O3) yr−1, with a 1σ uncertainty of ±15 % and with a NH : SH ratio ranging from 50:50 to 60:40. We identify a range of observational metrics that can better constrain the modeled STE O3 flux in future assessments.

Efficient transport pathways for ozone-depleting very short-lived substances (VSLSs) from their source regions into the stratosphere are a matter of current scientific debate; however they have yet to be fully identified on an observational basis. Understanding the increasing impact of chlorine-containing VSLSs (Cl-VSLSs) on stratospheric ozone depletion is important in order to validate and improve model simulations and future predictions. We report on a transport study using airborne in situ measurements of the Cl-VSLSs dichloromethane (CH2Cl2) and trichloromethane (chloroform, CHCl3) to derive a detailed description of two transport pathways from (sub)tropical source regions into the extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (Ex-UTLS) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) late summer. The Cl-VSLS measurements were obtained in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) above western Europe and the midlatitude Atlantic Ocean in the frame of the WISE (Wave-driven ISentropic Exchange) aircraft campaign in autumn 2017 and are combined with the results from a three-dimensional simulation of a Lagrangian transport model as well as back-trajectory calculations. Compared to background measurements of similar age we find up to 150 % enhanced CH2Cl2 and up to 100 % enhanced CHCl3 mixing ratios in the extratropical lower stratosphere (Ex-LS). We link the measurements of enhanced CH2Cl2 and CHCl3 mixing ratios to emissions in the region of southern and eastern Asia. Transport from this area to the Ex-LS at potential temperatures in the range of 370–400 K takes about 6–11 weeks via the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA). Our measurements suggest anthropogenic sources to be the cause of these strongly elevated Cl-VSLS concentrations observed at the top of the lowermost stratosphere (LMS). A faster transport pathway into the Ex-LS is derived from particularly low CH2Cl2 and CHCl3 mixing ratios in the UTLS. These low mixing ratios reflect weak emissions and a local seasonal minimum of both species in the boundary layer of Central America and the tropical Atlantic. We show that air masses uplifted by hurricanes, the North American monsoon, and general convection above Central America into the tropical tropopause layer to potential temperatures of about 360–370 K are transported isentropically within 5–9 weeks from the boundary layer into the Ex-LS. This transport pathway linked to the North American monsoon mainly impacts the middle and lower part of the LMS with particularly low CH2Cl2 and CHCl3 mixing ratios. In a case study, we specifically analyze air samples directly linked to the uplift by the Category 5 Hurricane Maria that occurred during October 2017 above the Atlantic Ocean. CH2Cl2 and CHCl3 have similar atmospheric sinks and lifetimes, but the fraction of biogenic emissions is clearly higher for CHCl3 than for the mainly anthropogenically emitted CH2Cl2; consequently lower CHCl3 : CH2Cl2 ratios are expected in air parcels showing a higher impact of anthropogenic emissions. The observed CHCl3 : CH2Cl2 ratio suggests clearly stronger anthropogenic emissions in the region of southern and eastern Asia compared to those in the region of Central America and the tropical Atlantic. Overall, the transport of strongly enhanced CH2Cl2 and CHCl3 mixing ratios from southern and eastern Asia via the ASMA is the main factor in increasing the chlorine loading from the analyzed VSLSs in the Ex-LS during the NH late summer. Thus, further increases in Asian CH2Cl2 and CHCl3 emissions, as frequently reported in recent years, will further increase the impact of Cl-VSLSs on stratospheric ozone depletion.

Three extreme cold events successively occurred across East Asia and North America in 2020/21 winter. This study investigates the underlying mechanisms for these record-breaking persistent cold events from the isentropic mass circulation (IMC) perspective. Results show that the midlatitude cold surface temperature anomalies always cooccurred with the high-latitude warm anomalies, which was closely related to the strengthening of the low-level equatorward cold air branch of IMC, particularly along the climatological cold air routes over East Asia and North America. Specifically, the two cold surges over East Asia in early winter were results of intensification of cold air transport there, influenced by the Arctic sea ice loss in autumn. The weakened cold air transport over North America associated with warmer northeastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) explained the concurrent anomalous warmth there. This enhanced a wavenumber-1 pattern and the upward wave propagation, inducing a simultaneous and long-lasting stronger poleward warm air branch (WB) of IMC in the stratosphere and hence a displacement-type Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) event on January 4. The WB-induced increase in the air mass transported into the polar stratosphere was followed by intensification of the equatorward cold branch and hence promoting the occurrence of two extreme cold events respectively over East Asia in the beginning of January and over North America in February. Results do not yield a robust direct linkage from La Nina to the SSW, IMC changes, and cold events, though the extratropical warm SSTs have contributions to the February cold surge in North America.

We present characterizations of the dynamic turbulence in the lower stratosphere measured by a new balloon-based system designed for detecting finer scale dynamic turbulence. The balloon-based system included a constant temperature anemometer (CTA) operating at a sampling rate of 2 kHz at an ascent speed of 5 m/s (corresponding to a vertical resolution of 2.5 mm), an industrial personal computer, batteries, sensors for ambient temperature and humidity, an A/D converter and others. The system was successfully launched to 24 km altitude over Bayannur City, Inner Mongolia Province. Results show the spatial intermittence of the turbulence layers, with clear boundaries between turbulent and non-turbulent regions. This is the first time that the dynamic turbulence spectrum down to the viscous sub-range has been obtained throughout the lower stratosphere over China. With that, the energy dissipation rates of dynamic turbulence could be calculated with high precision. The profile of the dissipation rates varies from 7.37×10−7 to 4.23 W/kg and increases with altitude in the stratosphere.

This study formulates three-dimensional (3D) residual flow, treating both stationary and transient waves. The zonal and meridional momentum equations contain four terms: the geostrophic wind tendency, Coriolis force for the residual horizontal flow, product of the geostrophic wind and potential vorticity other than the constant planetary vorticity, and friction. The thermodynamic equation contains three terms: the potential temperature tendency, advection of the basic potential temperature by the residual vertical flow, and diabatic heating. The zonal mean of the 3D residual flow equals the time mean of the residual flow of the transformed Eulerian-mean equations. The new residual flow is the sum of that derived by Plumb for transient waves and the quadratic terms of the time-mean fields, which correspond approximately to the Stokes correction due to stationary waves. The 3D residual flow and momentum equations are symmetric in the zonal and meridional directions, in contrast with those formulated by Kinoshita et al., which treat the time-mean zonal-mean zonal wind as the basic wind. The newly derived formulas are applied to the climatology of the 3D structure of the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation. In the Northern Hemisphere in December–February, the residual flows are directed inward toward the polar vortex strongly over east Siberia, where the downward flow is maximized, and weakly over the Atlantic; meanwhile, they are directed outward from the vortex over North America and Europe. A longitudinal dependence of the poleward flow is also observed in the Southern Hemisphere in June–August.

Owing to the unique advantages in flight altitude, dwelling time and wide coverage area, stratospheric airships provide permanent monitoring and surveillance for both civil and military applications. Here we propose a semi-rigid stratosphere airship design with circumferential high-pressure inflatable rings and a longitudinal carbon fiber skeleton supported inside. We perform numerical simulations to analyze the deformation characteristics during the whole ascending and descending process. An equivalent internal gradient pressure model of helium is established based on the capsule shape and buoyancy-weight equilibrium conditions. The implicit dynamic method is used to deal with the large deformation of the airship capsule under a low negative pressure condition. Deformation and load-bearing performance of the airship capsule, inflatable ring, skeleton, and suspension line are obtained under different working conditions. The results show that the airship, supported with the inflatable rings and the suspension lines, effectively maintains the shape and ensures the stiffness during the ascending, dwelling, and descending stages, especially suffering from negative pressure.

Injecting sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere with the intent to create an artificial reflective aerosol layer is one of the most studied options for solar radiation management. Previous modelling studies have shown that stratospheric sulfur injections have the potential to compensate for the greenhouse-gas-induced warming at the global scale. However, there is significant diversity in the modelled radiative forcing from stratospheric aerosols depending on the model and on which strategy is used to inject sulfur into the stratosphere. Until now, it has not been clear how the evolution of the aerosols and their resulting radiative forcing depends on the aerosol microphysical scheme used – that is, if aerosols are represented by a modal or sectional distribution. Here, we have studied different spatio-temporal injection strategies with different injection magnitudes using the aerosol–climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ with two aerosol microphysical modules: the sectional module SALSA (Sectional Aerosol module for Large Scale Applications) and the modal module M7. We found significant differences in the model responses depending on the aerosol microphysical module used. In a case where SO2 was injected continuously in the equatorial stratosphere, simulations with SALSA produced an 88 %–154 % higher all-sky net radiative forcing than simulations with M7 for injection rates from 1 to 100 Tg (S) yr−1. These large differences are identified to be caused by two main factors. First, the competition between nucleation and condensation: while injected sulfur tends to produce new particles at the expense of gaseous sulfuric acid condensing on pre-existing particles in the SALSA module, most of the gaseous sulfuric acid partitions to particles via condensation at the expense of new particle formation in the M7 module. Thus, the effective radii of stratospheric aerosols were 10 %–52 % larger in M7 than in SALSA, depending on the injection rate and strategy. Second, the treatment of the modal size distribution in M7 limits the growth of the accumulation mode which results in a local minimum in the aerosol number size distribution between the accumulation and coarse modes. This local minimum is in the size range where the scattering of solar radiation is most efficient. We also found that different spatial-temporal injection strategies have a significant impact on the magnitude and zonal distribution of radiative forcing. Based on simulations with various injection rates using SALSA, the most efficient studied injection strategy produced a 33 %–42 % radiative forcing compared with the least efficient strategy, whereas simulations with M7 showed an even larger difference of 48 %–116 %. Differences in zonal mean radiative forcing were even larger than that. We also show that a consequent stratospheric heating and its impact on the quasi-biennial oscillation depend on both the injection strategy and the aerosol microphysical model. Overall, these results highlight the crucial impact of aerosol microphysics on the physical properties of stratospheric aerosol which, in turn, causes significant uncertainties in estimating the climate impacts of stratospheric sulfur injections.

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), as a possible supplement to emission reduction, has the potential to reduce some of the risks associated with climate change. Adding aerosols to the lower stratosphere would result in temporary global cooling. However, different choices for the aerosol injection latitude(s) and season(s) have been shown to lead to significant differences in regional surface climate, introducing a design aspect to SAI. Past research has shown that there are at least three independent degrees of freedom (DOFs) that can be used to simultaneously manage three different climate goals. Knowing how many more DOFs there are, and thus how many independent climate goals can be simultaneously managed, is essential to understanding fundamental limits of how well SAI might compensate for anthropogenic climate change, and evaluating any underlying trade-offs between different climate goals. Here, we quantify the number of meaningfully independent DOFs of the SAI design space. This number of meaningfully independent DOFs depends on both the amount of cooling and the climate variables used for quantifying the changes in surface climate. At low levels of global cooling, only a small set of injection choices yield detectably different surface climate responses. For a cooling level of 1–1.5 ∘C, we find that there are likely between six and eight meaningfully independent DOFs. This narrows down the range of available DOFs and also reveals new opportunities for exploring alternate SAI designs with different distributions of climate impacts.

Through multi-order structure function analysis and singularity measurement, the Hurst index and intermittent parameter are obtained to quantitatively describe the characteristics of atmospheric disturbance based on the round-trip intelligent sounding system (RTISS) in the lower-middle stratosphere. According to the third-order structure function, small-scale gravity waves are classified into three states: stable, unstable, and accompanied by turbulence. The evolution of gravity waves is reflected by the variation of the third-order structure function over time, and the generation of turbulence is also observed. The atmospheric disturbance intensity parameter RT is defined in this paper and contains both wave disturbance ( \begin{document}$ {H}_{1} $\end{document} ) and random intermittency ( \begin{document}$ {C}_{1} $\end{document} ). RT is considered to reflect the characteristics of atmospheric disturbance more reasonably than either of the above two alone. In addition, by obtaining the horizontal wavenumber spectrum from the flat-floating stage and the vertical wavenumber spectrum from the ascending and descending stages at the height range of 18–24 km, we found that when the gravity wave activity is significantly enhanced in the horizontal direction, the amplitude of the vertical wavenumber spectrum below is significantly larger, which shows a significant impact of gravity wave activity on the atmospheric environment below.

This paper discusses the risks associated with an aerostat-supported stratospheric (unanchored) balloon mission equipped with a long vertical antenna and a very low frequency radio transmitter. The risks have been grouped into four main types and applicable mitigation methods have been presented to provide a sufficient level of safety and reliability to such a balloon mission. An experimental mission consistent with this analysis, based on the described theoretical VLF propagation approach, has been prepared and launched, and is operating at 14.2 kHz with a vertical antenna of a total length of 400 m and a total payload of max. 4 kg. The maximum altitude reached 29,164 m. The experiment’s signal has been registered in numerous locations in Europe; the results are compared with numerical analysis employing a hypothesis of an apparent transmitting frequency decrease with the rise of the transmitter’s altitude. The numerical analysis explains the behavior of the experimental signal and remains generally consistent with the hypothesis.

Nitrous oxide (N$_2$O) is the fourth most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and is considered the most important current source gas emission for global stratospheric ozone depletion (O$_3$). It has natural and anthropogenic sources, mainly as an unintended by-product of food production activities. This work examines the identification and quantification of trends in the N$_2$O concentration from the middle troposphere to the middle stratosphere (MTMS) by in situ and remote sensing observations. The temporal variability of N$_2$O is addressed using a comprehensive dataset of in situ and remote sensing N$_2$O concentrations based on aircraft and balloon measurements in the MTMS from 1987 to 2018. We determine N$_2$O trends in the MTMS, based on observations. This consistent dataset was also used to study the N$_2$O seasonal cycle to investigate the relationship between abundances and its emission sources through zonal means. The results show a long-term increase in global N$_2$O concentration in the MTMS with an average of 0.89 ± 0.07 ppb/yr in the troposphere and 0.96 ± 0.15 ppb/yr in the stratosphere, consistent with 0.80 ppb/yr derived from ground-based measurements and 0.799 ± 0.024 ppb/yr ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer) satellite measurements.

A previous model intercomparison of the Tambora aerosol cloud has highlighted substantial differences among simulated volcanic aerosol properties in the pre-industrial stratosphere and has led to questions about the applicability of global aerosol models for large-magnitude explosive eruptions prior to the observational period. Here, we compare the evolution of the stratospheric aerosol cloud following the well-observed June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption simulated with six interactive stratospheric aerosol microphysics models to a range of observational data sets. Our primary focus is on the uncertainties regarding initial SO2 emission following the Pinatubo eruption, as prescribed in the Historical Eruptions SO2 Emission Assessment experiments (HErSEA), in the framework of the Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (ISA-MIP). Six global models with interactive aerosol microphysics took part in this study: ECHAM6-SALSA, EMAC, ECHAM5-HAM, SOCOL-AERv2, ULAQ-CCM, and UM-UKCA. Model simulations are performed by varying the SO2 injection amount (ranging between 5 and 10TgS) and the altitude of injection (between 18-25km). The comparisons show that all models consistently demonstrate faster reduction from the peak in sulfate mass burden in the tropical stratosphere. Most models also show a stronger transport towards the extratropics in the Northern Hemisphere, at the expense of the observed tropical confinement, suggesting a much weaker subtropical barrier in all the models, which results in a shorter e-folding time compared to the observations. Furthermore, simulations in which more than 5TgS in the form of SO2 is injected show an initial overestimation of the sulfate burden in the tropics and, in some models, in the Northern Hemisphere and a large surface area density a few months after the eruption compared to the values measured in the tropics and the in situ measurements over Laramie. This draws attention to the importance of including processes such as the ash injection for the removal of the initial SO2 and aerosol lofting through local heating., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 23 (2), ISSN:1680-7375, ISSN:1680-7367

Rising greenhouse gases (GHG) and decreasing anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances (ODS) are the main drivers of the stratospheric climate evolution in the 21st century. However, the coupling between stratospheric composition, radiation and dynamics is subject to many uncertainties, which is partly because of the simplistic representation of ozone (O3) in many current climate models. Changes in ozone due to heterogeneous chemistry are known to be the largest during springtime in the Arctic, which is also a season with very active stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The focus of this study is to investigate the role of varying ozone levels driven by changing GHG and ODS for the Arctic polar cap stratosphere. We use two state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models with ocean coupling in two configurations (prescribed ozone fields vs. interactive ozone chemistry) for three different scenarios: preindustrial conditions—1 × CO2, year 2000 conditions (peak anthropogenic ODS levels) and extreme future conditions—4 × CO2. Our results show that in the upper and middle stratosphere CO2 thermal cooling is the dominant effect determining the temperature response under 4 × CO2, and outweighs warming effects of ozone by about a factor of ten. In contrast, in the lower stratosphere, the effects of O3 warming and CO2 cooling under 4 × CO2 are largely offsetting each other. ODS driven variations in O3 affect both the temperature mean and variability, and are responsible for the tight springtime coupling between composition and dynamics under year 2000 conditions in comparison to simulations under 1 × CO2 or 4 × CO2, Environmental Research Letters, 18 (2), ISSN:1748-9326, ISSN:1748-9318

We present the results of a comprehensive study of the manifestation of wave activity with periods of internal gravity waves (IGW) in various regions of the atmosphere: in the stratosphere, upper mesosphere, and in the F2-region of the ionosphere. The study is based on radiophysical and spectrometric measurements made with tools of the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) SB RAS and the Era-Interim reanalysis data. The correlation coefficient with time shift between ionospheric and stratospheric activity for the annual interval varies in the range from 0.45 to 0.54, and for the 27-day interval it reaches the levels 0.4–0.8 in seventy percent of the cases. Thirty percent of correlation coefficients less than 0.4 can be explained by the influence of neutral wind, geomagnetic activity, and non-stratospheric IGW sources. Comparison between stratospheric activity and variations in characteristics of traveling ionospheric disturbances (TID) has shown that a ~15 day shift in stratospheric activity results in a fairly high correlation between stratospheric activity and disturbance of IGW characteristics (~0.6). The delay of about 15 days can be attributed to the delay in the temperature variations at heights of the lower thermosphere relative to the temperature variations at the altitude pressure level of 1 hPa. Comparative analysis of variations in mesospheric and ionospheric activity has revealed time intervals when their behavior is consistent.

Zonal winds in the stratosphere and mesosphere play important roles in atmospheric dynamics and aeronomy. However, the direct measurement of winds in this height range is difficult. We present a dataset of the monthly mean zonal wind in the height range of 18–100 km and at latitudes of 50∘ S–50∘ N from 2002 to 2019, derived by the gradient balance wind theory and the temperature and pressure observed by the SABER instrument. The tide alias above 80 km at the Equator is replaced by the monthly mean zonal wind measured by a meteor radar at 0.2∘ S. The dataset (named BU) is validated by comparing with the zonal wind from MERRA2 (MerU), UARP (UraU), the HWM14 empirical model (HwmU), meteor radar (MetU), and lidar (LidU) at seven stations from around 50∘ N to 29.7∘ S. At 18–70 km, BU and MerU have (i) nearly identical zero wind lines and (ii) year-to-year variations of the eastward and westward wind jets at middle and high latitudes, and (iii) the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and semi-annual oscillation (SAO) especially the disrupted QBO in early 2016. The comparisons among BU, UraU, and HwmU show good agreement in general below 80 km. Above 80 km, the agreements among BU, UraU, HwmU, MetU, and LidU are good in general, except some discrepancies at limited heights and months. The BU data are archived as netCDF files and are available at https://doi.org/10.12176/01.99.00574 (Liu et al., 2021). The advantages of the global BU dataset are its large vertical extent (from the stratosphere to the lower thermosphere) and 18-year internally consistent time series (2002–2019). The BU data is useful to study the temporal variations with periods ranging from seasons to decades at 50∘ S–50∘ N. It can also be used as the background wind for atmospheric wave propagation.

В данной работе показано, как изменялось взаимодействие между тропосферой и стратосферой в последние десятилетия. Также оценено влияние таких явлений, как квазидвухлетнее колебание (КДК) на данное взаимодействие. Для этого было проанализировано распространение планетарных волн в атмосфере с использованием трехмерных потоков волновой активности, показана временная изменчивость потоков и линейный тренд. Кроме того, была оценена реакция тропосферы над Сибирью и Восточной Азией на КДК.

According to Modern-Era Retrospective Research Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) temperature and wind datasets in 2019, this study presents the global variations in the eastward-propagating wavenumber 1 (E1), 2 (E2), 3 (E3) and 4 (E4) planetary waves (PWs) and their diagnostic results in the polar middle atmosphere. We clearly demonstrate the eastward wave modes exist during winter periods with westward background wind in both hemispheres. The maximum wave amplitudes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) are slightly larger and lie lower than those in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Moreover, the wave perturbations peak at lower latitudes with smaller amplitudes as the wavenumber increases. The period of the E1 mode varies between 3–5 d in both hemispheres, while the period of the E2 mode is slightly longer in the NH (∼ 48 h) than in the SH (∼ 40 h). The periods of the E3 are ∼ 30 h in both the SH and the NH, and the period of E4 is ∼ 24 h. Despite the shortening of wave periods with the increase in wavenumber, their mean phase speeds are relatively stable, ∼ 53, ∼ 58, ∼ 55 and ∼ 52 m/s at 70∘ latitudes for E1, E2, E3 and E4, respectively. The eastward PWs occur earlier with increasing zonal wavenumber, which agrees well with the seasonal variations in the critical layers generated by the background wind. Our diagnostic analysis also indicates that the mean flow instability in the upper stratosphere and upper mesosphere might contribute to the amplification of the eastward PWs.

One of the largest climate forcing eruptions of the nineteenth century was, until recently, believed to have taken place at the Babuyan Claro volcano, in the Philippines, in 1831. However, a recent investigation found no reliable evidence of such an eruption, suggesting that the 1831 eruption must have taken place elsewhere. We here present our newly compiled dataset of reported observations of a blue, purple and green sun in August 1831, which we use to reconstruct the transport of a stratospheric aerosol plume from that eruption. The source of the aerosol plume is identified as the eruption of Ferdinandea, which took place about 50 km off the south-west coast of Sicily (37.1∘ N, 12.7∘ E), in July and August 1831. The modest magnitude of this eruption, assigned a volcanic explosivity index (VEI) of 3, has commonly caused it to be discounted or overlooked when identifying the likely source of the stratospheric sulfate aerosol in 1831. It is proposed, however, that convective instability in the troposphere contributed to aerosol reaching the stratosphere and that the aerosol load was enhanced by addition of a sedimentary sulfur component to the volcanic plume. Thus, one of the largest climate forcing volcanic eruptions of the nineteenth century would effectively have been hiding in plain sight, arguably “lowering the bar” for the types of eruptions capable of having a substantial climate forcing impact. Prior estimates of the mass of stratospheric sulfate aerosol responsible for the 1831 Greenland ice core sulfate deposition peaks which have assumed a source eruption at a low-latitude site will, therefore, have been overstated. The example presented in this paper serves as a useful reminder that VEI values were not intended to be reliably correlated with eruption sulfur yields unless supplemented with compositional analyses. It also underlines that eye-witness accounts of historical geophysical events should not be neglected as a source of valuable scientific data.

In this work we consider some refinements to the Boundary Profile eValuation (BPV) method, developed by Vespe et al. (2004), Vespe and Persia (2006), Vespe (2016), Andrisani and Vespe (2020) in order to retrieve atmospheric thermodynamic profiles from Radio Occultation (RO) observations. Former BPV models solved typical rank deficiencies in treating RO data by applying parametric dry refractivity models for the atmosphere, such as the CIRA86aQ or Hopfield (1969). The involved parameters were selected by fitting those dry models with the refractivity observed in the stratosphere, where water vapor concentrations are negligible, with the usual Least Square Error (LSE) method. Dry refractivity is then extrapolated down to the Earth surface. Nevertheless, unphysical occurrence of negative values of humidity concentrations, typical for the so called “simple models” (Kursinski and Kursinski, 2013) can occur in the lower troposphere. This problem is solved with a non-negative residuals constrained fitting for the total refractivity, obtained with different mathematical methodologies. Other refinements include the departure from the ideal state equation for a more realistic state equation concerning compressibility factors for the dry and wet components of the atmosphere. An application to 848 RO observations from COSMIC_1 space mission, covering tropical and middle latitudes during the months of January, March and May 2009, together with a statistical comparison with other atmospheric models and experimental data, was made in order to estimate the accuracy of the BPV method. The results show a description about the thermodynamic state of the atmosphere in line with other recognized atmospheric models, in particular for what concerns the tropics and the southern middle latitudes.

A review of data on sources and sinks of hydrogen of various origins in the atmosphere and in the near-surface part of the Earth’s crust is given (only some cases we are talking about the crust as a whole). Based on the results of the consideration of this information, it was concluded that the influence of underground non-biogenic («geological») hydrogen on the content and balance of gas in the atmosphere, up to the stratosphere, is insignificant. The complexity of the experimental determination of the flow of geological hydrogen, free of biogenic and anthropogenic interference, the influence of the testable excavation, etc. is obvious. Probable sources of deep hydrogen are considered: the remains of magmatic gases (outside the areas of volcanism), metamorphic reactions, and radiolysis of water. The potential for significant H2 flow is only apparent in areas of currently activated faults. The data on the most powerful suppliers of geological hydrogen — modern active volcanoes and thermal fields are given. The gas circulation scheme of the Avachinsky volcano is built, based on the thermal model. The latter is controlled by data from geothermometers, the results of direct temperature measurements in deep wells, and a velocity model. The possibility of fumaroles carrying unchanged hydrogen from the magma chamber has been shown. The prospects for the formation of hydrogen deposits are estimated as uncertain. Magmatic and metamorphogenic gas in some areas is formed enough to accumulate a significant deposit over several tens of thousands of years. But the possibility of its preservation during this period or longer raises doubts. Hydrocarbon deposits without material input from great depths can lose reserves in much less time. Higher rocks permeability to hydrogen contributes to much greater gas leakage.

The global amplitude of the westward propagating quasi-16-day waves (16DW) with wavenumber 1 (Q16W1), the strongest component of 16DW, are derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalysis temperature and zonal wind data sets from February 1979 to January 2018. In terms of temperature and zonal wind, strong climatologically average amplitudes of Q16W1 appear in the upper stratosphere at mid–high latitudes in both hemispheres, and the wave amplitude is stronger in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Multivariate linear regression is separately applied to calculate the responses of the Q16W1 temperature and zonal wind amplitudes to the QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation), ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), solar activity and linear trends of the Q16W1 amplitude. The QBO signatures of the Q16W1 temperature and zonal wind amplitudes are mainly located in the stratosphere. The Q16W1 has significant QBO responses at low latitudes. In addition, only the temperature amplitude presents a larger QBO signature in its strongest climatological amplitude region. No significant responses to ENSO and solar activity are observed in temperature and zonal wind amplitudes. The linear trends of the monthly mean Q16W1 temperature and zonal wind amplitude are generally positive, especially in the mid-upper stratosphere. The trend is asymmetric about the equator and significantly stronger in the NH than in the SH. The seasonal variation in the trend of the temperature amplitude is studied and illustrated to be stronger in winter and weaker in spring and autumn. Further investigation suggests that the background and local instability trends contribute most of the increasing trend of the Q16W1 amplitude. In winter in both hemispheres, a weakening trend of eastward zonal wind provides more favourable background wind for Q16W1 upward propagation, in autumn and winter in the NH and in spring, autumn and winter in the SH, and the increasing trend of local instability may enhance wave excitation. Graphical Abstract

Forest fires in British Columbia in August 2017 caused a pyrocumulonimbus event that injected a polluted air mass into the lower stratosphere. The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite first observed the polluted air mass on 14 August 2017 and continued to observe it for 60 d (100 d in water vapour). We estimate the mass of CO injected into the stratosphere to be 2400 Gg. Events in which a fire injects its burning products directly into the stratosphere are rare: this is the third of four such events in the 16 years since the launch of Aura, the second largest of the four events, and the only one in the Northern Hemisphere. The other three events occurred in Australia in December 2006, February 2009 and from December 2019 to January 2020. Unlike the 2006 and 2009 events, but like the 2019–2020 event, the polluted air mass described here had a clearly elevated water vapour content: between 2.5 and 5 times greater than that in the surrounding atmosphere. We describe the evolution of the polluted air mass, showing that it rose to an altitude of about 24 km (31 hPa) and divided into several identifiable parts. In addition to CO and H2O, we observe enhanced amounts of HCN, CH3CN, CH3Cl and CH3OH with mixing ratios in the range to be expected from a variety of measurements in other biomass burning plumes. We use back trajectories and plume-dispersion modelling to demonstrate that the pollutants observed by MLS originated in the British Columbia fires, the likeliest source being at 53.2∘ N, 121.8∘ W at 05:20 UTC on 13 August 2017.

The exploration of the trend in stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) is conducive to predict SSWs in the future. Utilizing the National Centre for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis (NCEP) (1948–2020) and Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA55) (1958–2020), we investigated the duration and strength of SSWs in the Northern Hemisphere occurred in the boreal winter (December–February). We found the duration of SSWs tends to increase and the strength of SSWs tends to strengthen from 1948 to 2003. After 2003, these trends did not continue. We utilized the observed cloudiness from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) to find that the convective activities in the tropical Central Pacific were enhanced during 1948–2003, and the enhancement of the convective activities did not continue after 2003. The circulation anomalies caused by the enhanced convective activities propagate to the high latitudes through wave trains. The anomalies of circulation and the climatological circulation at high latitudes interfere with each other and superimpose, which has a significant impact on planetary wave 1 (PW1). As a result, the PW1 also showed an increasing trend from 1948 to 2003 and a decreasing trend after 2003. After the stratosphere filters out the planetary wave with a large wavenumber, PW1 accounts for more proportion of planetary waves, which causes the trend in SSWs to change.

Without the Montreal Protocol, the already extreme Arctic ozone losses in the boreal spring of 2020 would be expected to have produced an Antarctic-like ozone hole, based upon simulations performed using the specified dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) and using an alternate emission scenario of 3.5 % growth in ozone-depleting substances from 1985 onwards. In particular, we find that the area of total ozone below 220 DU (Dobson units), a standard metric of Antarctic ozone hole size, would have covered about 20 million km2. Record observed local lows of 0.1 ppmv (parts per million by volume) at some altitudes in the lower stratosphere seen by ozonesondes in March 2020 would have reached 0.01, again similar to the Antarctic. Spring ozone depletion would have begun earlier and lasted longer without the Montreal Protocol, and by 2020, the year-round ozone depletion would have begun to dramatically diverge from the observed case. This extreme year also provides an opportunity to test parameterizations of polar stratospheric cloud impacts on denitrification and, thereby, to improve stratospheric models of both the real world and alternate scenarios. In particular, we find that decreasing the parameterized nitric acid trihydrate number density in SD-WACCM, which subsequently increases denitrification, improves the agreement with observations for both nitric acid and ozone. This study reinforces that the historically extreme 2020 Arctic ozone depletion is not cause for concern over the Montreal Protocol's effectiveness but rather demonstrates that the Montreal Protocol indeed merits celebration for avoiding an Arctic ozone hole.

Total column ozone (TCO) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is lower than that over other regions at the same latitude, particularly in summer. This feature is known as the “TP ozone valley”. This study evaluates long-term changes in TCO and the ozone valley over the TP from 1984 to 2100 using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The TP ozone valley consists of two low centers, one is located in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), and the other is in the middle and upper stratosphere. Overall, the CMIP6 models simulate the low ozone center in the UTLS well and capture the spatial characteristics and seasonal cycle of the TP ozone valley, with spatial correlation coefficients between the modeled TCO and the Multi Sensor Reanalysis version 2 (MSR2) TCO observations greater than 0.8 for all CMIP6 models. Further analysis reveals that models which use fully coupled and online stratospheric chemistry schemes simulate the anticorrelation between the 150 hPa geopotential height and zonal anomaly of TCO over the TP better than models without interactive chemistry schemes. This suggests that coupled chemical-radiative-dynamical processes play a key role in the simulation of the TP ozone valley. Most CMIP6 models underestimate the low center in the middle and upper stratosphere when compared with the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations. However, the bias in the middle and upper stratospheric ozone simulations has a marginal effect on the simulation of the TP ozone valley. Most CMIP6 models predict the TP ozone valley in summer will deepen in the future.

The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), launched on NASA's Aura spacecraft in 2004, measures vertical profiles of the abundances of key atmospheric species from the upper troposphere to the mesosphere with daily near-global coverage. We review the first 15 years of the record of H2O and N2O measurements from the MLS 190 GHz subsystem (along with other 190 GHz information), with a focus on their long-term stability, largely based on comparisons with measurements from other sensors. These comparisons generally show signs of an increasing drift in the MLS “version 4” (v4) H2O record starting around 2010. Specifically, comparisons with v4.1 measurements from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) indicate a ∼ 2 %–3 % per decade drift over much of the stratosphere, increasing to as much as ∼ 7 % per decade around 46 hPa. Larger drifts, of around 7 %–11 % per decade, are seen in comparisons to balloon-borne frost point hygrometer measurements in the lower stratosphere. Microphysical calculations considering the formation of polar stratospheric clouds in the Antarctic winter stratosphere corroborate a drift in MLS v4 water vapor measurements in that region and season. In contrast, comparisons with the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on NASA's Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) mission, and with ground-based Water Vapor Millimeter-wave Spectrometer (WVMS) instruments, do not show statistically significant drifts. However, the uncertainty in these comparisons is large enough to encompass most of the drifts identified in other comparisons. In parallel, the MLS v4 N2O product is shown to be generally decreasing over the same period (when an increase in stratospheric N2O is expected, reflecting a secular growth in emissions), with a more pronounced drift in the lower stratosphere than that found for H2O. Comparisons to ACE-FTS and to MLS N2O observations in a different spectral region, with the latter available from 2004 to 2013, indicate an altitude-dependent drift, growing from 5 % per decade or less in the mid-stratosphere to as much as 15 % per decade in the lower stratosphere. Detailed investigations of the behavior of the MLS 190 GHz subsystem reveal a drift in its “sideband fraction” (the relative sensitivity of the 190 GHz receiver to the two different parts of the microwave spectrum that it observes). Our studies indicate that sideband fraction drift accounts for much of the observed changes in the MLS H2O product and some portion of the changes seen in N2O. The 190 GHz sideband fraction drift has been corrected in the new “version 5” (v5) MLS algorithms, which have now been used to reprocess the entire MLS record. As a result of this correction, the MLS v5 H2O record shows no statistically significant drifts compared to ACE-FTS. However, statistically significant drifts remain between MLS v5 and frost point measurements, although they are reduced. Drifts in v5 N2O are about half the size of those in v4 but remain statistically significant. Scientists are advised to use MLS v5 data in all future studies. Quantification of interregional and seasonal to annual changes in MLS H2O and N2O will not be affected by the drift. However, caution is advised in studies using the MLS record to examine long-term (multiyear) variability and trends in either of these species, especially N2O; such studies should only be undertaken in consultation with the MLS team. Importantly, this drift does not affect any of the MLS observations made in other spectral regions such as O3, HCl, CO, ClO, or temperature.

Temperatures obtained from Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on board the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics (TIMED) satellite during the period from 2003 to 2019 are analysed to obtain trends in the region from 50°S to 50°N using the method of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). This method is used to remove long-term oscillations from the data to accurately estimate the linear trends. The novelty of the current study is in dividing the entire study region into sub-regions of 5° latitude and 10° longitude to investigate the associated longitudinal variability. The study shows that the global middle atmosphere, including the global mesopause and stratopause, is cooling as a whole. In the stratosphere and lower mesosphere the observed trends are −0.5 K/decade and in the upper mesosphere, the trends increase to −1.0 K/decade. Mesopause temperatures in Southern Hemisphere and stratopause temperatures in Northern Hemisphere are showing stronger cooling trends in comparison to the other hemisphere. Over tropical and subtropical regions, Southern Hemisphere mesopause is showing a stronger cooling trend over Indian Ocean and Asian region while the cooling trends are symmetric around the equator over Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Two important results obtained in the present study are as follows: (1) A warming trend, reaching 2.5 K/decade, is observed around 77 km over the Equator and adjoining tropical latitudes, which is attributed to processes leading to the mesospheric semi-annual oscillation (MSAO). (2) Anomalous cooling is observed in the stratopause region over the Southern Indian Ocean (SIO) longitudes. Temperature trends are large and negative ranging from −1 to −2 K/decade over SIO while the trends over the Southern Pacific Ocean (SPO) and the Southern Atlantic Ocean (SAO) lying in the same latitudinal band are small and positive, reaching values of 1 K/decade. It is envisaged that the recent accelerated warming of the SIO is probably responsible for the cooling of the stratopause region above.

The Asian summer monsoon is an effective pathway for aerosol particles and precursors from the planetary boundary layer over Central, South, and East Asia into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. An enhancement of aerosol particles within the Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA), called the Asian tropopause aerosol layer (ATAL), has been observed by satellites. We discuss airborne in situ and remote sensing observations of aerosol microphysical properties conducted during the 2017 StratoClim field campaign within the AMA region. The aerosol particle measurements aboard the high-altitude research aircraft M55 Geophysica (maximum altitude reached of ∼20.5 km) were conducted with a modified ultra-high-sensitivity aerosol spectrometer – airborne (UHSAS-A; particle diameter detection range of 65 nm to 1 µm), the COndensation PArticle counting System (COPAS, detecting total concentrations of submicrometer-sized particles), and the New Ice eXpEriment – Cloud and Aerosol Spectrometer with Detection of POLarization (NIXE-CAS-DPOL). In the COPAS and UHSAS-A vertical particle mixing ratio (PMR) profiles and the size distribution profiles (for number, surface area, and volume concentration), the ATAL is evident as a distinct layer between ∼370 and 420 K potential temperature (Θ). Within the ATAL, the maximum detected PMRs (from the median profiles) were ∼700 mg−1 for particle diameters between 65 nm and 1 µm (UHSAS-A) and higher than 2500 mg−1 for diameters larger than 10 nm (COPAS). These values are up to 2 times higher than those previously found at similar altitudes in other tropical locations. The difference between the PMR profiles measured by the UHSAS-A and the COPAS indicate that the region below the ATAL at Θ levels from 350 to 370 K is influenced by the nucleation of aerosol particles (diameter nm). We provide detailed analyses of the vertical distribution of the aerosol particle size distributions and the PMR and compare these with previous tropical and extratropical measurements. The backscatter ratio (BR) was calculated based on the aerosol particle size distributions measured in situ. The resulting data set was compared with the vertical profiles of the BR detected by the multiwavelength aerosol scatterometer (MAS) and an airborne miniature aerosol lidar (MAL) aboard the M55 Geophysica and by the satellite-borne Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). The data of all four methods largely agree with one another, showing enhanced BR values in the altitude range of the ATAL (between ∼15 and 18.5 km) with a maximum at 17.5 km altitude. By means of the AMA-centered equivalent latitude calculated from meteorological reanalysis data, it is shown that such enhanced values of the BR larger than 1.1 could only be observed within the confinement of the AMA.

The tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is the transition layer between the troposphere and the stratosphere. Tropical cyclones may impact the TTL by perturbing the vertical distributions of cloud, temperature, and water vapor. This study combines several A-Train instruments, including radar from CloudSat, lidar from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite, and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the Aqua satellite, to detect signatures of cyclone impacts on the distribution patterns of cloud, water vapor, temperature, and radiation by compositing these thermodynamic fields relative to the cyclone center location. Based on the CloudSat 2B-CLDCLASS-LIDAR product, this study finds that tropical cyclone events considerably increase the occurrence frequencies of TTL clouds, in the form of cirrus clouds above a clear troposphere. The amount of TTL cloud ice, however, is found to be mostly contributed by overshooting deep convection that penetrates the base of the TTL at 16 km. To overcome the lack of temperature and water vapor products in cloudy conditions, this study implements a synergistic method that retrieves temperature, water vapor, ice water content, and effective radius simultaneously by incorporating observations from AIRS, CloudSat, and CALIPSO. Using the synergistic method, we find a vertically oscillating pattern of temperature anomalies above tropical cyclones, with warming beneath the cloud top (around 16 km) and cooling above. Based on water vapor profiles retrieved by the synergistic method, we find that the layer integrated water vapor (LIWV) above 16 km is higher above tropical cyclones, especially above overshooting deep convective clouds, compared to climatological values. Moreover, we find that the longwave and net radiative cooling effect of clouds prevails within 1000 km of tropical cyclone centers. The radiative heating effects of clouds from the CloudSat 2B-FLXHR-LIDAR product are well differentiated by the collocated brightness temperature of an infrared window channel from the collocated AIRS L1B product. By performing instantaneous radiative heating rate calculations, we further find that TTL hydration is usually associated with radiative cooling of the TTL, which inhibits the diabatic ascent of moist air across isentropic surfaces to the stratosphere. Therefore, the radiative balance of the TTL under the impact of the cyclone does not favor the maintenance of moist anomalies in the TTL or transporting water vertically to the stratosphere.

Using meteor radar, radiosonde observations and MERRA-2 reanalysis data from 12 August to 31 October 2006, we report a dynamical coupling from the tropical lower atmosphere to the mesosphere and lower thermosphere through a quasi-27-day intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). It is interesting that the quasi-27-day ISO is observed in the troposphere, stratopause and mesopause regions, exhibiting a three-layer structure. In the MLT, the amplitude in the zonal wind increases from about 4 ms−1 at 90 km to 15 ms−1 at 100 km, which is different from previous observations that ISOs occurs generally in winter with an amplitude peak at about 80–90 km, and then are rapidly weakened with increasing height. Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and specific humidity demonstrate that there is a quasi-27-day periodicity in convective activity in the tropics, which causes the ISO of the zonal wind and gravity wave (GW) activity in the troposphere. The upward propagating GWs are further modulated by the oscillation in the troposphere and upper stratosphere. As the GWs propagate to the MLT, the quasi-27-day oscillation in the wind field is induced with a clear phase opposite to that in the lower atmosphere through instability and dissipation of these modulated GWs. Wavelet analysis shows that the quasi-27-day variability in the MLT appears as a case event rather than a persistent phenomenon, and has not a clear corresponding relation with the solar rotation effect within 1 year of observations.

We report on measurements of total bromine (Brtot) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere taken during 15 flights with the German High Altitude and LOng range research aircraft (HALO). The research campaign WISE (Wave-driven ISentropic Exchange) included regions over the North Atlantic, Norwegian Sea, and northwestern Europe in fall 2017. Brtot is calculated from measured total organic bromine (Brorg) added to inorganic bromine (Bryinorg), evaluated from measured BrO and photochemical modeling. Combining these data, the weighted mean [Brtot] is 19.2±1.2 ppt in the northern hemispheric lower stratosphere (LS), in agreement with expectations for Brtot in the middle stratosphere (Engel and Rigby et al., 2018). The data reflect the expected variability in Brtot in the LS due to variable influx of shorter lived brominated source and product gases from different regions of entry. A closer look into Brorg and Bryinorg, as well as simultaneously measured transport tracers (CO and N2O) and an air mass lag time tracer (SF6), suggests that bromine-rich air masses persistently protruded into the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) in boreal summer, creating a high bromine region (HBrR). A subsection, HBrR∗, has a weighted average of [Brtot] = 20.9±0.8 ppt. The most probable source region is air recently transported from the tropical upper troposphere and tropopause layer (UT/TTL) with a weighted mean of [Brtot] = 21.6±0.7 ppt. CLaMS Lagrangian transport modeling shows that the HBrR air mass consists of 51.2 % from the tropical troposphere, 27.1 % from the stratospheric background, and 6.4 % from the midlatitude troposphere (as well as contributions from other domains). The majority of the surface air reaching the HBrR is from the Asian monsoon and its adjacent tropical regions, which greatly influences trace gas transport into the LMS in boreal summer and fall. Tropical cyclones from Central America in addition to air associated with the Asian monsoon region contribute to the elevated Brtot observed in the UT/TTL. TOMCAT global 3-D model simulations of a concurrent increase of Brtot show an associated O3 change of -2.6±0.7 % in the LS and -3.1±0.7 % near the tropopause. Our study of varying Brtot in the LS also emphasizes the need for more extensive monitoring of stratospheric Brtot globally and seasonally to fully understand its impact on LMS O3 and its radiative forcing of climate, as well as in aged air in the middle stratosphere to elucidate the stratospheric trend in bromine.

To better understand the dynamics and impacts of blocking events, their 3D structure needs to be further investigated. We present a comprehensive composite analysis of the 3D structure of blocks and its response to future climate change over North Pacific, North Atlantic, and Russia in summers and winters using reanalysis and two large-ensemble datasets from CESM1 and GFDLCM3. In reanalysis, over both ocean and land, the anomalous winds are equivalent-barotropic in the troposphere and stratosphere, and temperature anomalies are positive throughout the troposphere and negative in the lower stratosphere. The main seasonal and regional differences are that blocks are larger/stronger in winters; over oceans, the temperature anomaly is shifted westward due to latent heating. Analyzing the temperature tendency equation shows that in all three sectors, adiabatic warming due to subsidence is the main driver of the positive temperature anomaly; however, depending on season and region, meridional thermal advection and latent heating might have leading-order contributions too. Both GCMs are found to reproduce the climatological 3D structure remarkably well, but sometimes disagree on future changes. Overall, the future summertime response is weakening of all fields (except for specific humidity), although the impact on near-surface temperature is not necessarily weakened; e.g., the blocking-driven near-surface warming over Russia intensifies. The wintertime response is strengthening of all fields, except for temperature in some cases. Responses of geopotential height and temperature are shifted westward in winters, most likely due to latent heating. Results highlight the importance of process-level analyses of blocks’ 3D structure for improved understanding of the resulting temperature extremes and their future changes.

The strongest supercell thunderstorms typically feature an above-anvil cirrus plume (AACP), which is a plume of ice and water vapor in the lower stratosphere that occurs downwind of the ambient stratospheric flow in the lee of overshooting deep convection. AACP-origin hydration of the stratosphere has a poorly constrained role in ozone destruction and surface warming. In this study, we use large eddy simulations corroborated by radar observations to understand the physics of AACP generation. We show that the overshooting top of a simulated supercell can act as a topographic obstacle and drive a hydraulic jump downstream at the tropopause, similar to a windstorm moving down the slope of a mountain but without solid topography. Once the jump is established, water vapor injection deep into the stratosphere may exceed 7 tonnes per second.

We have developed a procedure for retrieving atmospheric abundances of HFC-23 (CHF3) with a ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer and analyzed the spectra observed at Rikubetsu, Japan (43.5∘ N, 143.8∘ E), and at Syowa Station, Antarctica (69.0∘ S, 39.6∘ E). The FTIR retrievals were carried out with the SFIT4 retrieval program, and the two spectral windows of 1138.5–1148.0 cm−1 and 1154.0–1160.0 cm−1 in the overlapping ν2 and ν5 vibrational–rotational transition bands of HFC-23 were used to avoid strong H2O absorption features. We considered O3, N2O, CH4, H2O, HDO, CFC-12 (CCl2F2), HCFC-22 (CHClF2), peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) (CH3C(O)OONO2), HCFC-141b (CH3CCl2F), and HCFC-142b (CH3CClF2) to be interfering species. Vertical profiles of H2O, HDO, and CH4 are preliminarily retrieved with other independent spectral windows because these profiles may induce large uncertainties in the HFC-23 retrieval. Each HFC-23 retrieval has only one piece of vertical information with sensitivity to HFC-23 in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere. Retrieval errors mainly arise from the systematic uncertainties of the spectroscopic parameters used to obtain HFC-23, H2O, HDO, and CH4 abundances. For comparison between FTIR-retrieved HFC-23 total columns and surface dry-air mole fractions provided by AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment), FTIR-retrieved HFC-23 dry-air column-averaged mole fractions (XHFC-23) were calculated. The FTIR-retrieved XHFC-23 values at Rikubetsu and Syowa Station have negative biases of −15 % to −20 % and −25 % compared to the AGAGE datasets, respectively. These negative biases might mainly come from systematic uncertainties of HFC-23 spectroscopic parameters. The trend of the FTIR-retrieved XHFC-23 data at Rikubetsu was derived for December to February (DJF) observations, which are considered to represent the background values when an air mass reaching Rikubetsu has the least influence by transport of HFC-23 emissions from nearby countries. The DJF trend of Rikubetsu over the 1997–2009 period is 0.810 ± 0.093 ppt yr−1 (ppt: parts per trillion), which is in good agreement with the trend derived from the annual global mean datasets of the AGAGE 12-box model for the same period (0.820 ± 0.013 ppt yr−1). The DJF trend of Rikubetsu over the 2008–2019 period is 0.928 ± 0.108 ppt yr−1, which is consistent with the trend in the AGAGE in situ measurements at Trinidad Head (41.1∘ N, 124.2∘ W) for the same period (0.994 ± 0.001 ppt yr−1). The trend of the FTIR-retrieved XHFC-23 data at Syowa Station over the 2007–2016 period is 0.819 ± 0.071 ppt yr−1, which is consistent with that derived from the AGAGE in situ measurements at Cape Grim (40.7∘ S, 144.7∘ E) for the same period (0.874 ± 0.002 ppt yr−1). Although there are systematic biases in the FTIR-retrieved XHFC-23 at both sites, these results indicate that ground-based FTIR observations have the capability to monitor the long-term trend of atmospheric HFC-23. If this FTIR measurement technique were extended to other Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) ground-based FTIR sites around world, the measurements reported from these sites would complement the global AGAGE observations by filling spatial and temporal gaps and may lead to improved insights about changes in regional and global emissions of HFC-23 and its role in global warming.

We present the decadally averaged time series of the total ozone content and integrated aerosol backscattering coefficient over Tomsk in the period of 2000–2016, obtained using the М-124 ozonometer and lidar method, respectively. The relationship between them is studied. The time series for the period of time, considered here, were used to create the annual behaviors in the form of decadal values (36 points in all) of the parameters studied. These time series were analyzed to identify their differences and similarities.

Correctly capturing the teleconnection between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Europe is of importance for seasonal prediction. Here we investigate how systematic model biases may affect this teleconnection. A two-step bias correction process is applied to an atmospheric general circulation model to reduce errors in the climatology. The bias corrections are applied to the troposphere and stratosphere independently and jointly to produce a range of climates. ENSO-type sensitivity experiments are then performed to reveal the impact of differing climatologies on the ENSO–Europe teleconnections. The bias corrections do not affect the response of the tropical atmosphere or the Aleutian low to the strong ENSO anomalies imposed in our experiments. However, in El Niño experiments the anomalous upward wave flux and the response of the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex differ between the climatologies. We attribute this to a reduced sensitivity of the upward wave fluxes to the Aleutian low response in the bias correction experiments, where the reduced biases result in a deepened Aleutian low in the base state. Despite the differing responses of the polar vortex, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) response is similar between the climatologies, implying that for strong ENSO events the stratospheric pathway may not be the dominant pathway for the ENSO–North Atlantic teleconnection.

An advanced multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar was operated aboard the icebreaker Polarstern during the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition to continuously monitor aerosol and cloud layers in the central Arctic up to 30 km height. The expedition lasted from September 2019 to October 2020 and measurements were mostly taken between 85 and 88.5∘ N. The lidar was integrated into a complex remote-sensing infrastructure aboard the Polarstern. In this article, novel lidar techniques, innovative concepts to study aerosol–cloud interaction in the Arctic, and unique MOSAiC findings will be presented. The highlight of the lidar measurements was the detection of a 10 km deep wildfire smoke layer over the North Pole region between 7–8 km and 17–18 km height with an aerosol optical thickness (AOT) at 532 nm of around 0.1 (in October–November 2019) and 0.05 from December to March. The dual-wavelength Raman lidar technique allowed us to unambiguously identify smoke as the dominating aerosol type in the aerosol layer in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). An additional contribution to the 532 nm AOT by volcanic sulfate aerosol (Raikoke eruption) was estimated to always be lower than 15 %. The optical and microphysical properties of the UTLS smoke layer are presented in an accompanying paper (Ohneiser et al., 2021). This smoke event offered the unique opportunity to study the influence of organic aerosol particles (serving as ice-nucleating particles, INPs) on cirrus formation in the upper troposphere. An example of a closure study is presented to explain our concept of investigating aerosol–cloud interaction in this field. The smoke particles were obviously able to control the evolution of the cirrus system and caused low ice crystal number concentration. After the discussion of two typical Arctic haze events, we present a case study of the evolution of a long-lasting mixed-phase cloud layer embedded in Arctic haze in the free troposphere. The recently introduced dual-field-of-view polarization lidar technique was applied, for the first time, to mixed-phase cloud observations in order to determine the microphysical properties of the water droplets. The mixed-phase cloud closure experiment (based on combined lidar and radar observations) indicated that the observed aerosol levels controlled the number concentrations of nucleated droplets and ice crystals.

Using satellite data and reanalysis data, the characteristics and mechanisms of the formation of an ozone “mini-hole” in the atmosphere over Siberia in the winter of 2015–2016 have been investigated. The relationship between the regional negative anomaly of the total ozone content (TOC), reaching –140 Dobson units, with atmospheric blocking was established. The TOC anomaly was mainly due to a decrease in the ozone content in the lower stratosphere, reaching 50% near the 70 hPa level. With the key contribution of atmospheric dynamic processes to the formation of the ozone “mini-hole,” the possibility of the contribution of ozone destruction in heterogeneous reactions on the surface of polar stratospheric clouds, due to a strong decrease in temperature in the stratosphere above the blocking region, was noted.

Nitric oxide (NO) is a key active trace gas in the atmosphere, which contributes to form harmful ozone in the troposphere and to the destruction of ozone in the stratosphere. In this study, we present the NO retrieval from ground-based Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) solar absorption spectrometry measurements at a polluted site (Xianghe, China) and a background site (Maïdo, Reunion Island). The degree of freedom (DOF) of the NO retrieval is 2.3±0.4 (1σ) at Xianghe and 1.3±0.1 at Maïdo. By looking at the FTIR NO retrievals at Xianghe and Maïdo, we find that the stratospheric NO partial column is large in summer as compared to winter at both sites, and the seasonal variation in the FTIR stratospheric NO partial columns is consistent with that observed by the co-located Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) satellite measurements. A large diurnal variation in the stratospheric NO partial column is observed by the FTIR measurements at Maïdo, with an increase from the early morning to about 14:00 local time and a decrease thereafter. Due to the low NO concentration near the surface, the FTIR NO retrieval is only sensitive to the stratosphere at Maïdo. The high NO mole fraction near the surface at Xianghe allows us to derive tropospheric and stratospheric NO partial columns separately, although the tropospheric column is very difficult to retrieve in summer (June–August) because of the high water vapor abundance. A good correlation is found between the NO observed by the FTIR measurements and other air pollutants (NO2 and CO) in the troposphere at Xianghe. It is the first study of a successful analysis of NO in the troposphere from a ground-based FTIR site. The tropospheric and stratospheric NO retrieval might be possible at other potential FTIR sites inside or near large cities with enhanced levels of NO near the surface.

The Arctic stratospheric polar vortex is an important driver of mid-latitude winter cold spells. One proposed coupling mechanism between the stratospheric polar vortex and the troposphere is upward-propagating planetary waves being reflected downward by the polar vortex. However, while the wave reflection mechanism is well-documented, its role in favouring cold spells is still under-explored. Here, we analyse such stratospheric wave reflections and their impact on the tropospheric circulation and surface temperatures over North America in winter. We present a physically interpretable regional stratospheric wave reflection detection metric and identify the tropospheric circulation anomalies associated with prolonged periods of wave reflection, which we term reflection events. In particular, we characterise the tropospheric anomalies through the lens of North American weather regimes. Stratospheric reflection events show a systematic evolution from a Pacific Trough regime – associated on average with positive temperature anomalies and a near-complete absence of anomalously cold temperatures in North America – to an Alaskan Ridge regime, which favours low temperatures over much of the continent. The most striking feature of the stratospheric reflection events is thus a rapid, continental-scale decrease in temperatures. These emerge as continental-scale cold spells by the end of the reflection events. Stratospheric reflection events are thus highly relevant in a tropospheric predictability perspective.