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When making decisions, animals must trade off the benefits of information harvesting against the opportunity cost of prolonged deliberation. Deciding when to stop accumulating information and commit to a choice is challenging in natural environments, where the reliability of decision-relevant information may itself vary unpredictably over time (variable variance or "heteroscedasticity"). We asked humans to perform a categorization task in which discrete, continuously valued samples (oriented gratings) arrived in series until the observer made a choice. Human behavior was best described by a model that adaptively weighted sensory signals by their inverse prediction error and integrated the resulting quantities with a linear urgency signal to a decision threshold. This model approximated the output of a Bayesian model that computed the full posterior probability of a correct response, and successfully predicted adaptive weighting of decision information in neural signals. Adaptive weighting of decision information may have evolved to promote optional stopping in heteroscedastic natural environments. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

In repeated decision problems for which it is possible to learn from experience, people should actively seek out uncertain options, rather than avoid ambiguity or uncertainty, in order to learn and improve future decisions. Research on human behavior in a variety of multiarmed-bandit tasks supports this prediction. Multiarmed-bandit tasks involve repeated decisions between options with initially unknown reward distributions and require a careful balance between learning about relatively unknown options (exploration) and obtaining high immediate rewards (exploitation). Resolving this exploration-exploitation dilemma optimally requires considering not only the estimated value of each option, but also the uncertainty in these estimations. Bayesian learning naturally quantifies uncertainty and hence provides a principled framework to study how humans resolve this dilemma. On the basis of computational modeling and behavioral results in bandit tasks, I argue that human learning, attention, and exploration are guided by uncertainty. These results support Bayesian theories of cognition and underpin the fundamental role of subjective uncertainty in both learning and decision making.

Introduction Low volume and high complex cardiac surgery such as resection of excess heart muscle (myectomy) has proven to be effective, yet, serious complications such as a ventricular septal defect, and complete heart block leading to pacemaker implantations may occur even for experienced surgeons. In situ simulation-based practice before actual surgery might improve patient outcomes. As simulation and clinical practice becomes more and more intertwined, we aimed to develop and implement three-dimensional (3D) heart models in preoperative planning and training to improve pre-operative patient-specific anatomy insights and surgical technique in an observational study to ultimately improve surgical outcome. Methods Eight consecutive patients scheduled for surgical myectomy received cardiac Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) based 3D-planning from September 2020 to August 2022. The dedicated cardiac MRI examination resulted in a high resolution 3D sequence of the heart and thoracic blood vessels. Models increased in complexity over time from a) an in silico anatomical model, to b) 3D-printed septal myectomy planning, to c) pre-operative in situ surgical practice on a silicone model, and to d) intraoperative assessment of actual heart muscle resection compared to pre-operative planning. The models were also used for patient consultation and surgical informed consent. Our small sample size was deemed too small for quantitative analysis of patient outcomes. Results & Discussion An in silico 3D anatomical model of the heart with height map is visualised in Figure 1a. Thickened heart tissue exceeding 15 mm was printed in red for visual guidance of surgical resection (Figure 1b). In situ simulated resection of excess heart tissue was simulated on the silicone model one day before the actual surgery (Figure 1c), and allowed for adjustment of the planned resection. The pre-operative surgical plan and actual resected myocardial tissue volume and size were compared intraoperatively (Figure 1d). Since introduction of the patient-specific models, surgeons feel better prepared, more confident, and feel better supported making pre- and intra-operative decisions. Additionally, patients feel better informed about the actual procedure during outpatient consultation. In situ patient-specific simulation of complex cardiac surgery has become regular surgical practice in our hospital. It is recommended to implement and evaluate the presented workflow in other cardio-thoracic surgery centres, and for other disciplines to demonstrate improvement in patient outcomes. Keywords High Fidelity Simulation Training; Heart surgery; Three-Dimensional Imaging; Just-in-time simulation References/Acknowledgements Aggarwal R. Just-in-time simulation-based training. BMJ Quality & Safety 2017;26:866-868. https://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjqs-2017-007122 Ralph-Edwards A, Vanderlaan RD, Bajona P. Transaortic septal myectomy: techniques and pitfalls. Annals of Cardiothoracic Surgery 2017;6(4):410-415. https://doi.org/10.21037/acs.2017.07.08

In this study, we investigated human causal learning in a continuous time and space setting. Our experiments revealed that people are capable causal learners in such contexts, and that standard Bayesian updating of prior beliefs partially explains how priors impact their judgments. Specifically, individuals with strong prior beliefs consistent with the ground truth are less likely to misinterpret indirect effects as direct in structures like causal chains. When priors were inconsistent with the ground truth however, participants performed worse on average, choosing less informative interventions. Computational modelling revealed that to deal with the abundance of data in this setting, participants use interventions to mark informative data and focus on direct outgoing links from the variable they intervene on. This task-decomposition strategy, when paired with participants’ interventions, achieves comparable accuracy to using the entirety of the dataset, despite ignoring almost half of the available data. These findings are in line with the resource rational framework, where discarding data outside of interventions saves computational costs and the full inference problem about the graph is broken down into sub-problems of inferring individual links between variables. Overall, our study reinforces the idea that humans are frugal and intuitive active learners who combine actions and inference to optimize learning while minimizing effort.

Human learning transfer abilities take advantage of important cognitive building blocks such as an abstract representation of concepts underlying tasks and causal models of the environment. One way to build abstract representations of the environment when the task involves interactions with others is to build a model of the opponent that may inform what actions they are likely to take next. In this study, we explore opponent modelling and its transfer in games where human agents play against computer agents with human-like limited degrees of iterated reasoning. In two experiments, we find that participants deviate from Nash equilibrium play and learn to adapt to their opponent’s strategy to exploit it. Moreover, we show that participants transfer their learning to new games. Computational modelling shows that players start each game with a model-based learning strategy that facilitates between-game transfer of their opponent’s strategy, but then switch to behaviour that is consistent with a model-free learning strategy in the latter stages of the interaction.

Objectives: Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) for postcardiotomy cardiogenic shock has been increasingly used without concomitant mortality reduction. This study aims to investigate determinants of in-hospital and postdischarge mortality in patients requiring postcardiotomy ECMO in the Netherlands.Methods: The Netherlands Heart Registration collects nationwide prospective data from cardiac surgery units. Adults receiving intraoperative or postoperative ECMO included in the register from January 2013 to December 2019 were studied. Survival status was established through the national Personal Records Database. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to investigate determinants of in-hospital (3 models) and 12-month postdischarge mortality (4 models). Each model was developed to target specific time points during a patient's clinical course.Results: Overall, 406 patients (67.2% men, median age, 66.0 years [interquartile range, 55.0-72.0 years]) were included. In-hospital mortality was 51.7%, with death occurring in a median of 5 days (interquartile range, 2-14 days) after surgery. Hospital survivors (n = 196) experienced considerable rates of pulmonary infections, respiratory failure, arrhythmias, and deep sternal wound infections during a hospitalization of median 29 days (interquartile range, 17-51 days). Older age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% CI, 1.0-1.04) and preoperative higher body mass index (OR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.02-1.14) were associated with in-hospital death. Within 12 months after discharge, 35.1% of hospital survivors (n = 63) died. Postoperative renal failure (OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.6-4.9), respiratory failure (OR, 3.6; 95% CI, 1.3-9.9), and re-thoracotomy (OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.3-6.5) were associated with 12-month postdischarge mortality.Conclusions: In-hospital and postdischarge mortality after postcardiotomy ECMO in adults remains high in the Netherlands. ECMO support in patients with higher age and body mass index, which drive associations with higher in-hospital mortality, should be carefully considered. Further observations suggest that prevention of re-thoracotomies, renal failure, and respiratory failure are targets that may improve postdischarge outcomes.

Recycling behavior can recover valuable materials and mitigate green house gas emissions from landfills and incinerators. The potential positive impact of individuals' recycling behavior depends on others also making an effort, for instance, avoiding contamination. Knowing what other people have done may therefore influence recycling behavior. Behavioral traces are evidence of other people's behavior in a shared environment. Here, they relate to waste items already placed in one of two bins, a mixed recycling bin and a nonrecyclable waste bin. In two online experiments and one real-life intervention study, we investigate the role of behavioral traces on the willingness to recycle as well as the correctness of recycling. We find that seeing behavioral traces of previous recycling behavior makes recycling generally more likely, and people tend to copy item placement. This in turn increases correctness in groups where the average individual has good knowledge of recycling. Introducing correct items at the start of the day in the intervention study did not increase correctness, possibly because the correct items were soon buried by other items. Implications and future directions are discussed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

In this study, we investigated human causal learning in a continuous time and space setting. Our experiments revealed that people are capable causal learners in such contexts, and that standard Bayesian updating of prior beliefs partially explains how priors impact their judgments. Specifically, individuals with strong prior beliefs consistent with the ground truth are less likely to misinterpret indirect effects as direct in structures like causal chains. When priors were inconsistent with the ground truth however, participants performed worse on average, choosing less informative interventions. Computational modelling revealed that to deal with the abundance of data in this setting, participants use interventions to mark informative data and focus on direct outgoing links from the variable they intervene on. This task-decomposition strategy, when paired with participants' interventions, achieves comparable accuracy to using the entirety of the dataset, despite ignoring almost half of the available data. These findings are in line with the resource rational framework, where discarding data outside of interventions saves computational costs and the full inference problem about the graph is broken down into sub-problems of inferring individual links between variables. Overall, our study reinforces the idea that humans are frugal and intuitive active learners who combine actions and inference to optimize learning while minimizing effort.

OBJECTIVES Mitral valve (MV) surgery after prior cardiac surgery is conventionally performed through resternotomy and associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Alternatively, MV can be approached minimally invasively [minimally invasive mitral valve surgery (MIMVS)], but longer-term follow-up of this approach for MV surgery after prior cardiac surgery is lacking. Therefore, the aim of the current study is to evaluate short- and mid-term outcomes of MIMVS versus MV surgery through resternotomy in patients with prior sternotomy, using a nationwide registry. METHODS Patients undergoing isolated MV surgery after prior cardiac surgery between 2013 and 2018 were included. Primary outcomes were short-term morbidity and mortality and mid-term survival. Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to investigate the association between surgical approach and mortality. Propensity score matching was used to correct for potential confounders. RESULTS In total, 290 patients underwent MV surgery after prior cardiac surgery, of whom 205 patients were operated through resternotomy and 85 patients through MIMVS. No significant differences in 30-day mortality (3.4% vs 2%, P = 0.99) were observed between both groups. Five-year survival was 86.3% in the resternotomy group, compared to 89.4% in the MIMVS group (log-rank P = 0.45). In the multivariable analysis, surgical approach showed no relation with mid-term mortality [hazard ratio 0.73 (0.34–1.60); P = 0.44]. A lower incidence of prolonged intubation and new-onset arrhythmia was observed in MIMVS. CONCLUSIONS MV surgery after prior cardiac surgery has excellent short- and mid-term results in the Netherlands, and MIMVS and resternotomy appear to be equally efficacious. MIMVS is associated with a lower incidence of new-onset arrhythmia and prolonged intubation.

Patients undergoing surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) are at high risk for atrial fibrillation (AF) and stroke after surgery. There is an unmet clinical need to improve stroke prevention in this patient population. The LAA-CLOSURE trial aims to assess the efficacy and safety of prophylactic surgical closure of the left atrial appendage for stroke and cardiovascular death prevention in patients undergoing bioprosthetic SAVR. This randomized, open-label, prospective multicenter trial will enroll 1,040 patients at 13 European sites. The primary endpoint is a composite of cardiovascular mortality, stroke and systemic embolism at 5 years. Secondary endpoints include cardiovascular mortality, stroke, systemic embolism, bleed fulfilling academic research consortium (BARC) criteria, hospitalization for decompensated heart failure and health economic evaluation. Sample size is based on 30% risk reduction in time to event analysis of primary endpoint. Prespecified reports include 30-day safety analysis focusing on AF occurrence and short-term outcomes and interim analyses at 1 and 3 years for primary and secondary outcomes. Additionally, substudies will be performed on the completeness of the closure using transesophageal echocardiography/cardiac computed tomography and long-term ECG recording at one year after the operation.

The default stance of much of the regret literature is that, overall, regret is a functional emotion- it leads decision makers to adaptively switch to a behaviour more likely to lead to better outcomes, compared to the previously adopted behaviour (Epstude & Roese, 2008; O’Connor et al., 2014; Zeelenberg, 1999). However, regret may not always be functional. Random variation in the environment means uncertainty is inherent to decisional outcomes. It follows that the optimal decision at the time does not always lead to the most favourable outcome. Conversely, a turn of good fortune can rescue a suboptimal decision when it leads to the most favourable outcome. The aim of the present study is to understand whether experienced regret and rejoice influence choice behaviour over and above the value of the options presented. Experienced regret and rejoice may exert a dysfunctional influence that increases the likelihood of non-adaptive behaviours: experienced regret may increase the likelihood of switching from a superior option to an inferior option and experienced rejoice may increase the chances of repeating an inferior choice when a superior alternative is available. A novel repeated choice task will be used to induce different counterfactual emotions (disappointment and elation, regret and rejoice) and analyse subsequent choice behaviour. Participants choose between two different options on consecutive choice trials with the aim of accumulating as many points as possible. The options used in the task differ in their expected value, riskiness or both. Half of the choice trials are designated ‘full feedback’, where the payoffs from both the chosen option (the obtained payoff) and the forgone option (the forgone payoff) are displayed. An equal number of trials are designated ‘partial feedback’, where only the obtained payoff is revealed. The full feedback condition generates the between-option counterfactual necessary to elicit regret if the forgone payoff is higher than the obtained payoff, or rejoice if the obtained payoff is higher than the forgone payoff. The partial feedback condition models a scenario in which the experience of regret or rejoice is not possible. The distinguishing feature of the task is that the chosen option remains in the following trial and is randomly paired with a different option. Thus, participants face a choice on each trial between an option that has just induced an emotional reaction, and an option that differs either in its superiority, riskiness, or a combination of both. References: Epstude, K., & Roese, N. (2008). The functional theory of counterfactual thinking. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 12(2), 168–192. https://doi.org/10.1177/1088868308316091 O’Connor, E., McCormack, T., & Feeney, A. (2014). Do children who experience regret make better decisions? A developmental study of the behavioural consequences of regret. Child Development, 85(5), 1995–2010. https://doi.org/10.1111/cdev.12253 Zeelenberg, M. (1999). The Use of Crying over Spilled Milk: A Note on the Rationality and Functionality of Regret. Philosophical Psychology, 12(3), 325–340. https://doi.org/10.1080/095150899105800

Background Current guidelines on coronary anomalies are primarily based on expert consensus and a limited number of trials. A gold standard for diagnosis and a consensus on the treatment strategy in this patient group are lacking, especially for patients with an anomalous origin of a coronary artery from the opposite sinus of Valsalva (ACAOS) with an interarterial course. Aim To provide evidence-substantiated recommendations for diagnostic work-up, treatment and follow-up of patients with anomalous coronary arteries. Methods A clinical care pathway for patients with ACAOS was established by six Dutch centres. Prospectively included patients undergo work-up according to protocol using computed tomography (CT) angiography, ischaemia detection, echocardiography and coronary angiography with intracoronary measurements to assess anatomical and physiological characteristics of the ACAOS. Surgical and functional follow-up results are evaluated by CT angiography, ischaemia detection and a quality-of-life questionnaire. Patient inclusion for the first multicentre study on coronary anomalies in the Netherlands started in 2020 and will continue for at least 3 years with a minimum of 2 years of follow-up. For patients with a right or left coronary artery originating from the pulmonary artery and coronary arteriovenous fistulas a registry is maintained. Results Primary outcomes are: (cardiac) death, myocardial ischaemia attributable to the ACAOS, re-intervention after surgery and intervention after initially conservative treatment. The influence of work-up examinations on treatment choice is also evaluated. Conclusions Structural evidence for the appropriate management of patients with coronary anomalies, especially (interarterial) ACAOS, is lacking. By means of a structured care pathway in a multicentre setting, we aim to provide an evidence-based strategy for the diagnostic evaluation and treatment of this patient group.

Uncertainty plays a critical role in reinforcement learning and decision making. However, exactly how it influences behavior remains unclear. Multiarmed-bandit tasks offer an ideal test bed, since computational tools such as approximate Kalman filters can closely characterize the interplay between trial-by-trial values, uncertainty, learning, and choice. To gain additional insight into learning and choice processes, we obtained data from subjects’ overt allocation of gaze. The estimated value and estimation uncertainty of options influenced what subjects looked at before choosing; these same quantities also influenced choice, as additionally did fixation itself. A momentary measure of uncertainty in the form of absolute prediction errors determined how long participants looked at the obtained outcomes. These findings affirm the importance of uncertainty in multiple facets of behavior and help delineate its effects on decision making.

How does time pressure influence exploration and decision-making? We investigated this question with several four-armed bandit tasks manipulating (within subjects) expected reward, uncertainty, and time pressure (limited vs. unlimited). With limited time, people have less opportunity to perform costly computations, thus shifting the cost-benefit balance of different exploration strategies. Through behavioral, reinforcement learning (RL), reaction time (RT), and evidence accumulation analyses, we show that time pressure changes how people explore and respond to uncertainty. Specifically, participants reduced their uncertainty-directed exploration under time pressure, were less value-directed, and repeated choices more often. Since our analyses relate uncertainty to slower responses and dampened evidence accumulation (i.e., drift rates), this demonstrates a resource-rational shift towards simpler, lower-cost strategies under time pressure. These results shed light on how people adapt their exploration and decision-making strategies to externally imposed cognitive constraints.

Contains fulltext : 248644.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Closed access) BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown that preoperative anaemia in patients undergoing cardiac surgery is associated with adverse outcomes. However, most of these studies were retrospective, had a relatively small sample size, and were from a single centre. The aim of this study was to analyse the relationship between the severity of preoperative anaemia and short- and long-term mortality and morbidity in a large multicentre national cohort of patients undergoing cardiac surgery. METHODS: A nationwide, prospective, multicentre registry (Netherlands Heart Registration) of patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery between January 2013 and January 2019 was used for this observational study. Anaemia was defined according to the WHO criteria, and the main study endpoint was 120-day mortality. The association was investigated using multivariable logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: In total, 35 484 patients were studied, of whom 6802 (19.2%) were anaemic. Preoperative anaemia was associated with an increased risk of 120-day mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.7; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4-1.9; P

OBJECTIVES Minimally invasive mitral valve surgery (MIMVS) has been performed increasingly for the past 2 decades; however, large comparative studies on short- and long-term outcomes have been lacking. This study aims to compare short- and long-term outcomes of patients undergoing MIMVS versus median sternotomy (MST) based on real-world data, extracted from the Netherlands Heart Registration. METHODS Patients undergoing mitral valve surgery, with or without tricuspid valve, atrial septal closure and/or rhythm surgery between 2013 and 2018 were included. Primary outcomes were short-term morbidity and mortality and long-term survival. Propensity score matching analyses were performed. RESULTS In total, 2501 patients were included, 1776 were operated through MST and 725 using an MIMVS approach. After propensity matching, no significant differences in baseline characteristics persisted. There were no between-group differences in 30-day mortality (1.1% vs 0.7%, P = 0.58), 1-year mortality (2.6% vs 2.1%, P = 0.60) or perioperative stroke rate (1.1% vs 0.6%, P = 0.25) between MST and MIMVS, respectively. An increased rate of postoperative arrhythmia was observed in the MST group (31.3% vs 22.4%, P CONCLUSIONS The MIMVS approach is as safe as the sternotomy approach for the surgical treatment of mitral valve disease. However, it comes at a cost of a reduced repair rate and more reinterventions in the long term, in the real-world.

How does time pressure influence exploration and decision-making? We investigated this question with several four-armed bandit tasks manipulating (within subjects) expected reward, uncertainty, and time pressure (limited vs. unlimited). With limited time, people have less opportunity to perform costly computations, thus shifting the cost-benefit balance of different exploration strategies. Through behavioral, reinforcement learning (RL), reaction time (RT), and evidence accumulation analyses, we show that time pressure changes how people explore and respond to uncertainty. Specifically, participants reduced their uncertainty-directed exploration under time pressure, were less value-directed, and repeated choices more often. Since our analyses relate uncertainty to slower responses and dampened evidence accumulation (i.e., drift rates), this demonstrates a resource-rational shift towards simpler, lower-cost strategies under time pressure. These results shed light on how people adapt their exploration and decision-making strategies to externally imposed cognitive constraints.

Information from traces of other people’s behaviour can give clues about the quality of a behaviour or option. In three experiments we test whether the number of food items allegedly already consumed by others (scarcity-due-to-popularity effect) as well as the space initially allocated to the options (default effect) influence people’s selection of edible items. Participants made choices from a set of two plant and two meat-based finger foods (Experiment 1) and between two types of unlabeled finger foods (Experiments 2 and 3). In the first two experiments, we find a preference for fuller trays (reversed scarcity effect) but no effect for the size of trays. For the choice within plant and within meat options as well as among the unlabeled options, the preference for fullness is moderated by scarcity-due-to-popularity beliefs, such that a stronger belief that scarcity relates to popularity lessens or even reverses the preference for fuller trays. When it is made explicit that the options are of equal freshness (Experiment 3), participants showed a preference for emptier trays. This preference was more pronounced the stronger their scarcity-due-to-popularity beliefs. Contrary to previous research, we show that scarcity affects the choice of food items, but only when scarcity is attributed to popularity and when there are no strong prior preferences guided by labels (e.g., plant- vs meat-based options).

The current climate crisis requires pro-environmental behaviours to be developed, engaged in, and spread to other people. Behavioural traces, i.e. evidence of other people's pro-environmental behaviour left in the shared environment, have shown to influence people towards being more pro-environmental.In a set of three surveys, we investigate which behavioural traces correspond to a number of pro- and anti-environmental behaviours identified from previous literature, how frequently these behavioural traces are encountered, and their relation with engagement in behaviours.All studies are survey based with a mix of open-ended questions (Surveys 1 & 3) and rating scales (Survey 2). We use network analysis to identify partial correlations within behaviours and traces, respectively, and between behaviours and traces.A total of 91 traces uniquely attributed to 51 pro- and anti-environmental behaviours were identified. On average, behavioural traces are encountered monthly, with a range from never to daily. Noticing traces correlated with engaging in related behaviours for the areas 'Activism' and 'Food', but not 'Building', 'Transport', 'Waste' and 'Stuff'. Participants report that they expect seeing traces more frequently increases the likelihood of adopting the behaviour that produced them. Finally, participants were generally able to infer the causing behaviours when only presented the traces.We show that unique behavioural traces exist for the majority of pro- and anti-environmental behaviours. Traces are noticed and relate to the causing behaviours based on correlational and self-report evidence. Because of the wide variation between behaviours and their traces, further research into specific behaviours is warranted. Use of these findings for interventions are discussed.

Recycling behaviour can recover valuable materials and mitigate green house gas emission from landfills and incinerators. The potential positive impact of individuals' recycling behaviour depends on others also making an effort, for instance avoiding contamination. Knowing what other people have done may therefore influence recycling behaviour. Behavioural traces are evidence of other people's behaviour in a shared environment. Here they relate to waste items already placed in one of two bins, a mixed-recycling bin and a non-recyclable waste bin. In two online experiments and one real-life intervention study we investigate the role of behavioural traces on the willingness to recycle as well as the correctness of recycling. We find that seeing behavioural traces of previous recycling behaviour makes recycling generally more likely and people tend to copy item placement. This in turn increases correctness in groups where the average individual has good knowledge of recycling. Introducing correct items at the start of the day in the intervention study did not increase correctness, possibly because the correct items were soon buried by other items. Implications and future directions are discussed.

Stigmergy refers to the coordination of agents via artifacts of behaviours (behavioural traces) in the shared environment. Whilst primarily studied in biology and computer science/robotics, stigmergy underlies many human indirect interactions, both offline (e.g., trail building) and online (e.g., development of open-source software). In this review, we provide an introduction to stigmergy and emphasise how and where human stigmergy is distinct from animal or robot stigmergy, such as intentional communication via traces and causal inferences from the traces to the causing behaviour. Cognitive processes discussed on the agent level include attention, motivation, meaning and meta-cognition, as well as emergence/immergence, iterative learning and exploration/exploitation at the interface of individual agent and multi-agent systems. Characteristics of one-agent, two-agent and multi-agent systems are discussed and areas for future research highlighted.

Human learning transfer takes advantage of important cognitive building blocks such as an abstract representation of concepts underlying tasks and causal models of the environment. One way to build abstract representations of the environment when the task involves interactions with others is to build a model of the opponent that may inform what actions they are likely to take next. In this study, we explore opponent modelling and its role in learning transfer by letting human participants play different games against the same computer agent, who possesses human-like theory of mind abilities with a limited degree of iterated reasoning. We find that participants deviate from Nash equilibrium play and learn to adapt to the opponent's strategy to exploit it. Moreover, we show that participants transfer their learning to new games and that this transfer is moderated by the level of sophistication of the opponent. Computational modelling shows that it is likely that players start each game using a model-based learning strategy that facilitates generalisation and opponent model transfer, but then switch to behaviour that is consistent with a model-free learning strategy in the later stages of the interaction.

We consider missing data in the context of hidden Markov models with a focus on situations where data is missing not at random (MNAR) and missingness depends on the identity of the hidden states. In simulations, we show that including a submodel for state-dependent missingness reduces bias when data is MNAR and state-dependent, whilst not reducing accuracy when data is missing at random (MAR). When missingness depends on time but not the hidden states, a model which only allows for state-dependent missingness is biased, whilst a model that allows for both state- and time-dependent missingness is not. Overall, these results show that modelling missingness as state-dependent, and including other relevant covariates, is a useful strategy in applications of hidden Markov models to time-series with missing data. We conclude with an application of the state- and time-dependent MNAR hidden Markov model to a real dataset, involving severity of schizophrenic symptoms in a clinical trial., Comment: 29 pages. Four figures. 8 tables

Magnitudes from different dimensions (e.g., space and time) interact with each other in perception, but how these interactions occur remains unclear. In four experiments, we investigated whether cross-dimensional magnitude interactions arise from memory interference. In Experiment 1, participants perceived a constant-length line consisting of two line segments of complementary lengths and presented for a variable stimulus duration; then they received a cue about which of the two segment lengths to later reproduce. Participants were to first reproduce the stimulus duration and then the cued length. Reproduced durations increased as a function of the cued length if the cue was given before duration was retrieved from memory for reproduction (i.e. before duration reproduction; Experiment 1) but not if it was given after the duration memory had been retrieved from memory (i.e. after the start of duration reproduction; Experiment 2). These findings demonstrate that space-time interaction arises as a result of memory interference when length and duration information co-exist in working memory. Experiment 3 further demonstrated spatial interference on duration memories from memories of filled lengths (i.e. solid line segments) but not from noisier memories of unfilled lengths (demarcated empty spatial intervals), thus highlighting the role of memory noise in space-time interaction. Finally, Experiment 4 showed that time also exerted memory interference on space when space was presented as (relatively noisy) unfilled lengths. Taken together, these findings suggest that cross-dimensional magnitude interactions arise as a result of memory interference and the extent and direction of the interaction depend on the relative memory noises of the target and interfering dimensions. We propose a Bayesian model whereby the estimation of a magnitude is based on the integration of the noisily encoded percept of the target magnitude and the prior knowledge that magnitudes co-vary across dimensions (e.g., space and time). We discuss implications for cross-dimensional magnitude interactions in general.

Understanding the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change has been dubbed a ‘gateway belief’ to engaging people in sustainable behaviour. We consider the question of how the impact of a consensus communication can be maximised. Firstly, the credibility of the communicator should be maximised. One way of achieving this is to present the opinions of a sample of scientists directly to individuals. The decision-making literature suggests that such a technique will confer an additional advantage over standard descriptions of consensus (e.g. ‘97% of scientists agree’). In decision-making research, low probabilities tend to be overweighted when probabilities are described, but underweighted when probability information is experienced. Consequently, statements of high consensus may lead to an overweighting of the dissensus, a phenomenon that may be reversed were the consensus to be ‘experienced.’ We obtain some positive support for our proposal that consensus is best ‘experienced’ in one of two experiments. We suggest that the lack of stronger positive support could relate to ceiling effects for the topics studied and propose that investigation of effective methods for ‘experiencing’ the consensus is a fruitful area for future research.

Decisions-makers often have access to a combination of descriptive and experiential information, but limited research so far has explored decisions made using both. Three experiments explore the relationship between task complexity and the influence of descriptions. We show that in simple experience-based decision-making tasks, providing congruent descriptions has little influence on task performance in comparison to experience alone without descriptions, since learning via experience is relatively easy. In more complex tasks, which are slower and more demanding to learn experientially, descriptions have stronger influence and help participants identify their preferred choices. However, when the task gets too complex to be concisely described, the influence of descriptions is reduced hence showing a non-monotonic pattern of influence of descriptions according to task complexity. We also propose a cognitive model that incorporates descriptive information into the traditional reinforcement learning framework, with the impact of descriptions moderated by task complexity. This model fits the observed behavior better than previous models and replicates the observed non-monotonic relationship between impact of descriptions and task complexity. This research has implications for the development of effective warning labels that rely on simple descriptive information to trigger safer behavior in complex environments.

Background: 75% of all mental health problems have their onset before the end of adolescence. Therefore, adolescence may be a particularly sensitive time period for preventing mental health problems. Affective control, the capacity to engage with goal relevant and inhibit distracting information in affective contexts, has been proposed as a potential target for prevention. In this study, we will explore the impact of improving adolescents’ affective control capacity on their mental health. Methods: The proof-of-principle double-blind randomized controlled trial will compare the effectiveness of an app-based affective control training (AffeCT) to a placebo training (P-Training) app. In total, 200 (~50% females) adolescents (11-19 years) will train for 14 days on their training app. The AffeCT will include three different n-back tasks: visuospatial, auditory and dual (i.e., including both modalities). These tasks require participants to flexibly engage and disengage with affective and neutral stimuli (i.e., faces and words). The P-Training will present participants with a perceptual matching task. The three versions of the P-Training tasks vary in the stimuli included (i.e., shapes, words and faces). The two training groups will be compared on gains in affective control, mental health, emotion regulation and self-regulation, immediately after training, one month and one year after training. Discussion: If, as predicted, the proposed study finds that AffeCT successfully improves affective control in adolescents, there would be significant potential benefits to adolescent mental health. As a free app, the training would also be scalable and easy to disseminate across a wide range of settings. Trial registration: The trial was registered on December 10th 2018 with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number (Registration number: ISRCTN17213032).

Background: 75% of all mental health problems have their onset before the end of adolescence. Therefore, adolescence may be a particularly sensitive time period for preventing mental health problems. Affective control, the capacity to engage with goal relevant and inhibit distracting information in affective contexts, has been proposed as a potential target for prevention. In this study, we will explore the impact of improving adolescents’ affective control capacity on their mental health. Methods: The proof-of-principle double-blind randomized controlled trial will compare the effectiveness of an app-based affective control training (AC-Training) to a placebo training (P-Training) app. In total, 200 (~50% females) adolescents (11-19 years) will train for 14 days on their training app. The AC-Training will include three different n-back tasks: visuospatial, auditory and dual (i.e., including both modalities). These tasks require participants to flexibly engage and disengage with affective and neutral stimuli (i.e., faces and words). The P-Training will present participants with a perceptual matching task. The three versions of the P-Training tasks vary in the stimuli included (i.e., shapes, words and faces). The two training groups will be compared on gains in affective control, mental health, emotion regulation and self-regulation, immediately after training, one month and one year after training. Discussion: If, as predicted, the proposed study finds that AC-Training successfully improves affective control in adolescents, there would be significant potential benefits to adolescent mental health. As a free app, the training would also be scalable and easy to disseminate across a wide range of settings. Trial registration: The trial was registered on December 10th 2018 with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number (Registration number: ISRCTN17213032).

The relationship between DNA sequence, biochemical function, and molecular evolution is relatively well-described for protein-coding regions of genomes, but far less clear in noncoding regions, particularly, in eukaryote genomes. In part, this is because we lack a complete description of the essential noncoding elements in a eukaryote genome. To contribute to this challenge, we used saturating transposon mutagenesis to interrogate the Schizosaccharomyces pombe genome. We generated 31 million transposon insertions, a theoretical coverage of 2.4 insertions per genomic site. We applied a five-state hidden Markov model (HMM) to distinguish insertion-depleted regions from insertion biases. Both raw insertion-density and HMM-defined fitness estimates showed significant quantitative relationships to gene knockout fitness, genetic diversity, divergence, and expected functional regions based on transcription and gene annotations. Through several analyses, we conclude that transposon insertions produced fitness effects in 66–90% of the genome, including substantial portions of the noncoding regions. Based on the HMM, we estimate that 10% of the insertion depleted sites in the genome showed no signal of conservation between species and were weakly transcribed, demonstrating limitations of comparative genomics and transcriptomics to detect functional units. In this species, 3′- and 5′-untranslated regions were the most prominent insertion-depleted regions that were not represented in measures of constraint from comparative genomics. We conclude that the combination of transposon mutagenesis, evolutionary, and biochemical data can provide new insights into the relationship between genome function and molecular evolution., L.G. was supported by a UCL Grand Challenges Award to J.B. C.J.R.I. was supported by a Sir Henry Dale Fellowship, jointly funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (Grant No. 101239/Z/13/Z). This work was supported by a Wellcome Trust Senior Investigator Award to J.B. (Grant No. 095598/Z/11/Z).

The relationship between DNA sequence, biochemical function, and molecular evolution is relatively well-described for protein-coding regions of genomes, but far less clear in noncoding regions, particularly, in eukaryote genomes. In part, this is because we lack a complete description of the essential noncoding elements in a eukaryote genome. To contribute to this challenge, we used saturating transposon mutagenesis to interrogate the Schizosaccharomyces pombe genome. We generated 31 million transposon insertions, a theoretical coverage of 2.4 insertions per genomic site. We applied a five-state hidden Markov model (HMM) to distinguish insertion-depleted regions from insertion biases. Both raw insertion-density and HMM-defined fitness estimates showed significant quantitative relationships to gene knockout fitness, genetic diversity, divergence, and expected functional regions based on transcription and gene annotations. Through several analyses, we conclude that transposon insertions produced fitness effects in 66–90% of the genome, including substantial portions of the noncoding regions. Based on the HMM, we estimate that 10% of the insertion depleted sites in the genome showed no signal of conservation between species and were weakly transcribed, demonstrating limitations of comparative genomics and transcriptomics to detect functional units. In this species, 3′- and 5′-untranslated regions were the most prominent insertion-depleted regions that were not represented in measures of constraint from comparative genomics. We conclude that the combination of transposon mutagenesis, evolutionary, and biochemical data can provide new insights into the relationship between genome function and molecular evolution.

How does time pressure influence attitudes towards uncertainty? When time is limited, do people engage in different exploration strategies? We study human exploration in a range of four-armed bandit tasks with different reward distributions and manipulate the available time for each decision (limited vs. unlimited). Through multiple behavioral and model-based analyses, we show that reactions towards uncertainty are influenced by time pressure. Specifically, participants seek out uncertain options when time is unlimited, but avoid uncertainty under time pressure. Moreover, larger relative differences in uncertainty between options slowed down reaction times and dampened the drift rate of a linear ballistic accumulator model. These results shed new light on the differential effect of uncertainty and time pressure on human exploration.

Adolescence has been proposed to be a sensitive period of social development, during which the social environment has a heightened effect on brain and behaviour. As such, negative social experiences, such as social exclusion, may have particularly detrimental effects on psychological well-being. However, little is known about how social exclusion affects cognitive performance during this time of life. Here, we compared the effects of exclusion between adolescence and adulthood. We recruited 98 females in three age groups: young adolescents (N = 36, aged 10.1–14.0), mid-adolescents (N = 35, aged 14.3–17.9) and adults (N = 27, aged 18.3–38.1). All age groups showed reductions in mood after exclusion, compared to inclusion, in a virtual ball-tossing game. Young adolescents also showed reduced verbal working memory accuracy following exclusion. There was no effect of exclusion on visuo-spatial working memory in any age group. These results suggest young adolescent girls’ verbal working memory accuracy was affected by a short, virtual social exclusion experience. This highlights the importance of the social environment in adolescence and underlines the need to consider age differences in response to exclusion in the design and timing of social exclusion interventions in schools. Keywords: Cyberball, Sensitive period, Adolescence, n-back, Visuo-spatial working memory, Mood

Anchoring effects are robust, varied and can be consequential. Researchers have provided a variety of alternative explanations for these effects. More recently, it has become apparent that anchoring effects might be produced by a variety of different processes, either acting simultaneously, or else individually in distinct situations. An unresolved issue is whether anchoring, aside from simple numeric priming, can transcend scales. That is, is it necessary that the anchor value and the target judgment are expressed in the same units? Despite some theoretical predictions to the contrary, this paper demonstrates semantic cross-scale anchoring in four experiments. Such effects are important for the direction of future theorising on the causes of anchoring effects and understanding the scope of their consequences in applied domains.

In the current study, we investigated windows for enhanced learning of cognitive skills during adolescence. Six hundred thirty-three participants (11-33 years old) were divided into four age groups, and each participant was randomly allocated to one of three training groups. Each training group completed up to 20 days of online training in numerosity discrimination (i.e., discriminating small from large numbers of objects), relational reasoning (i.e., detecting abstract relationships between groups of items), or face perception (i.e., identifying differences in faces). Training yielded some improvement in performance on the numerosity-discrimination task, but only in older adolescents or adults. In contrast, training in relational reasoning improved performance on that task in all age groups, but training benefits were greater for people in late adolescence and adulthood than for people earlier in adolescence. Training did not increase performance on the face-perception task for any age group. Our findings suggest that for certain cognitive skills, training during late adolescence and adulthood yields greater improvement than training earlier in adolescence, which highlights the relevance of this late developmental stage for education.