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Approximately 400,000 births to adolescent girls under age 15 occurred worldwide each year in the 2010s, representing a fertility rate of around 13 annual births per 10,000 girls aged 10–14. More than half of these occurred in sub-Saharan Africa, where we observe 40 annual births per 10,000 girls aged 10–14. Since the early 1970s, fertility among girls aged 10–14 has decreased sixfold worldwide. In countries of the Global South, a majority of these births occur within a union (marriage or non-marital cohabitation).

Migrer, c’est entrer en incertitude. Incertitude sur la durée de la migration, sur les futurs lieux de vie, sur les étapes à franchir, sur la sécurité financière et matérielle, sur les perspectives d’avenir. Migrer, c’est aussi un parcours fait de changements, de bifurcations, de redéfinitions de projets. Un parcours par ailleurs jalonné de procédures administratives ou juridictionnelles, demandes de titres de séjour limité ou illimité, dont les règles sont de plus en plus complexes et évoluent au gré des politiques migratoires. Or, comme nous allons le démontrer, la complexité croissante du régime migratoire belge amplifie les incertitudes, immobilise les trajectoires et fabrique une proportion importante de situations irrégulières. Avec un impact lourd sur le vécu des personnes migrantes, qui peut parfois conduire à des situations de non-respect des droits humains.

The purpose of this chapter is to review the literature on fertility stalls in Africa. The first section provides a descriptive approach of the demographic transition since the 1950s, while the second looks at the unusual pace of fertility decline from the 1990s from a comparative perspective. The third section summarizes the halts and reversals in fertility decline from the early 2000s. First, the methods used to define a fertility stall are described. Then, the stall periods and studies by country where the slowdowns occurred are identified and listed. The fourth section describes the analyses conducted on the fertility dynamics during stall periods, such as the changes in the proximate determinants of fertility, birth intervals, fertility desires, and fertility preferences. The fifth section summarizes the studies analyzing the potential causes of fertility stalls, such as education, wealth, HIV, and under-five mortality, among others. Finally, the sixth section draws conclusions from the reviewed studies, and the seventh proposes a research agenda from the gaps in literature.

Comment le cadre juridique impacte-t-il les trajectoires de vie des personnes migrantes? Comment les migrants s’adaptent-ils à ce cadre pour tenter de réaliser leurs aspirations personnelles et familiales ? Pour répondre à ces questions, des juristes, des démographes et des sociologues se sont associés pendant cinq ans pour analyser finement le cadre légal et les contraintes et opportunités qu’il offre, pour retracer les trajectoires migratoires qui se déploient dans ce cadre, et pour recueillir les témoignages, en Belgique, de personnes originaires de pays extra-européens. Au travers de trois scènes - le cadre légal et ses contraintes, les temporalités, et le regroupement familial- , cet ouvrage démontre combien les parcours sont marqués par des insécurités qui se cumulent. Celles-ci affectent les migrants sans pour autant annihiler leur aptitude à développer des projets professionnels et familiaux. Ce projet donne à voir les stratégies à l’oeuvre face aux contraintes qui sont elles-mêmes évolutives, et conduit à formuler des recommandations visant à une plus grande justice migratoire.

Cet article synthétise les grands changements dans la démographie de l'Afrique sub-Saharienne depuis les années 2000, et offre un aperçu des perspectives jusque 2050.

We aim to present and summarize the major demographic changes under way in the region, subregions, and countries of sub-Saharan Africa over a period of almost 20 years, from the late 1990s to the late 2010s. This article follows on from our overview of the period 1950–2000 (Tabutin and Schoumaker, 2004). To ensure comparability, this update is structured similarly, although certain sections have been removed (early history, information systems, educational inequality), and others have been shortened. It looks more closely at how social disparities have evolved in the different countries and at future prospects and challenges. After briefly comparing the socio-economic context of sub-Saharan Africa in the early 21st century with that of other world regions, the following topics will be addressed in succession: Population size and growth Major transition models Nuptiality (age at marriage, singlehood, union dissolution, and polygamy) Fertility and its intermediate variables, including contraception Mortality (overall, infant and child, maternal, causes of death and AIDS in particular) Internal migration and urbanization International migration We conclude with an outline of prospects up to 2050 and of the challenges concerning education, health, and employment, followed by a general summary including research questions which, in our view, deserve priority attention.

Estimation of single year age-specific fertility rates from surveys and health and demographic surveillance systems. Estimates of under-15 fertility from surveys and health and demographic surveillance systems.

This paper focuses on the migration project as an agent of changes in marriage in Africa. Most research on the effect of migration is about actual migration. This paper focuses on the effect of migration project on marriage. The theoretical proposition is that migration impacts individuals’ behaviors in origin countries even though migration has not (yet) occurred. The aim is to determine whether non-migrants in the city of Kinshasa (DR Congo) with a migration project tend to delay marriage or entry into union. The sub-Saharan context is relevant, as intentions to migrate are widespread and out-migration is highly constrained. The data come from the MAFE surveys. They include information on migration projects and migration histories, as well as union histories in origin and destination countries. Using event history models, the results confirm the influence of the migration project on the timing of union among men and women in Kinshasa.

Across the world, the mean number of children per man ranges from less than 1 to more than 13, while for women the range is between 1 and 8. It is in sub-Saharan Africa that male fertility is highest, notably in the Sahelian countries, with 13.6 children per man on average in Niger, 13.5 in South Sudan and 12.1 in Chad. In only four countries (South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia) is male fertility below 6 children per man. In most western countries, on the other hand, fertility is low, and men’s fertility is slightly below that of women, often by around 0.1 children.

Dans le prolongement de l’enquête sur les Belgo-Marocains et Belgo-Turcs publiée en 2015[1], cette étude vise à cerner le profil sociodémographique des Congolais, Burundais et Rwandais de Belgique. Avec quelque 110.000 personnes, les Belgo-Congolais, Belgo-Rwandais et Belgo-Burundais forment le 3ème groupe le plus important de populations issues de l’immigration hors Union européenne. Pourtant, en dépit d’une histoire partagée avec notre pays, ces citoyens sont peu présents dans le débat public et paraissent mal connus au sein de la société. Cette enquête combine une recherche quantitative sur base d’un échantillon de 800 afro-descendants dans les trois régions du pays et une analyse qualitative basée sur des entretiens. Elle permet ainsi, pour la toute première fois, de mieux comprendre leurs positionnement et attitudes dans la société belge, envers leur pays d’origine, mais aussi de rendre compte de leur dynamique d’intégration et des difficultés qui restent prégnantes.

This report evaluates the quality of birth history data from 182 DHS surveys conducted in 69 countries since the 1990s (DHS Phase II onward). It focuses on levels and trends in estimated fertility. Fertility trends are reconstructed using birth history data from DHS surveys; the regularity of trends in fertility and their consistency across surveys draw a broad picture of the quality of data from the 69 countries. The results of the reconstruction indicate that fertility data are very good in some countries (e.g., Armenia, Colombia, Indonesia, Morocco), acceptable in many countries (e.g., Jordan, Kenya, Zimbabwe), and poor in other countries (e.g., Benin, Ethiopia, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan). The study identified discrepancies between the fertility estimates, published in the survey reports (for the three years preceding the survey) and the reconstructed fertility estimates, and explored various data quality issues that may explain these discrepancies. Displacement of recent births in the birth history table of the DHS questionnaire because of the child health section is widespread, but it is only marginally related to discrepancies between published and reconstructed fertility trends. Three other factors may account for the differences: 1) omission of recent births, 2) the Potter effect, and 3) differences in sample composition. Overall, the analyses presented in this study indicate that DHS fertility estimates are of good or acceptable quality in the majority of surveys, but that taking published fertility figures at face value could be risky in some contexts. Inferring fertility trends by comparing recently published fertility data from successive surveys may lead to erroneous trend results.

In this paper, I compare direct and indirect estimates of recent fertility to evaluate the quality of birth history data. The direct estimates are based on birth histories and computed in the same way as the published estimates in DHS. The indirect estimates are computed using the crisscross method (Schmertmann, 2002), based on cohort parity increments between successive surveys. Comparisons between direct and indirect estimates are used (1) to show that the data are affected data quality problems, and (2) to help identify the type of data quality problems (omissions of recent births, displacements, omissions of early births, differences in sample implementation). It could potentially be used to (3) help correct fertility estimates.

Since the mid-1970s, sub-Saharan candidates for migration to Europe have been confronted with increasingly stiff policy measures. This chapter explores how migration between Senegal and Europe has evolved in this context. Taking advantage of the retrospective nature of the data from the MAFE project (Migration between Africa and Europe) in addition to other available sources, it offers a unique quantitative account of the history of Senegalese migration. The results show that, between 1975 and 2008, there was neither a surge in out-migration (despite the widespread belief in an African invasion in Europe) nor the decline that might have been expected if restrictions had been effective. In fact, results tend in many ways to support the hypothesis that the effectiveness of restrictive policies is hampered by a number of unintended effects due to the ability of (would-be) migrants to adapt to new rules. Among these unintended effects are: the decline in intentions to return from Europe, the increase in attempts to migrate to Europe and the growth of irregular migration.

The objective of this paper is to evaluate to what extent - and with which methods - the DHS data in sub-Saharan Africa can be used to measure levels and patterns of male fertility. Three methods (two indirect methods and one direct method) that can be used to compute recent age specific fertility rates from DHS data are compared. Comparisons show the own children method is the most promising approach with existing data. We show that the male TFR and mean age at fatherhood vary widely in Sub-saharan Africa. Four types of patterns of male fertility are found.

The objective of this paper - using quantitative data of MAFE – is to provide an overview of the changing patterns of African migration in the MAFE countries. Three broad topics are addressed: (1) trend in departures and returns, (2) profiles of migrants, and (3) migration routes. The paper is by nature mainly descriptive, and has not the ambition of identifying determinants of migration as such. However, by describing major changes over the last 30 years, this paper suggests possible links with changing political, economic and policy contexts in both origin and destination countries.

Levels, patterns and trends of male fertility are little documented in sub-Saharan Africa. Most existing studies have been conducted at the local level, and are relatively old. Yet, data collected in DHS contain valuable information on male fertility, and have largely been untapped. The objectives of this paper are (1) to evaluate to what extent the DHS data in sub-Saharan Africa can be used to measure levels, patterns and trends of male fertility, and (2) to provide a broad overview of male fertility levels, patterns and trends in Africa. Three methods are compared: the own children method, the crisscross method, and the date of last birth method. Results suggest that the own children method is the most appropriate to measure male fertility in a wide range of countries and periods. Preliminary results show three broad patterns of male fertility. They also show declines in male fertility in several sub-Saharan African countries.

The objective of this working paper is to provide some basic analyses that help us to identify the main factors underlying different propensities to migrate from Africa to Europe (out-migration or departure) and from Europe to Africa (return), across individuals born in different African countries. Namely, we aim at clearly distinguishing the role played by individual, household and contextual factors in increasing (or decreasing) the individual likelihood of African people to migrate between Africa and Europe, rather than the specific migration rates between these two areas and their changes over time (a topic addressed in the working paper on migration patterns).

DR Congo is one of the most populated countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and the largest French-speaking African country. It is also currently one of the poorest countries in the World: in 2011, it ranked last (187) on the Human Development Index (UNDP, 2011). Since its independence, it has gone through numerous political and economic crises. These crises are thought to have profoundly affected migrations (Sumata, 2002). Yet, although it is possible to draw a broad picture of Congolese migration, many of its characteristics and changes over time are still largely unknown. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the changing patterns of Congolese migration using quantitative MAFE data. In the first section, a review of the literature provides background information on the recent political and economic changes in DR Congo, as well as on changes in migrations. Next, we use MAFE data collected in Kinshasa (capital city of DR Congo) and in two European destination countries (Belgium and the UK) to document the changing patterns of migration from the DR Congo since the mid-1970s. In the third section, we focus on strategies and routes of migrations to Europe.

The objective of this report is to identify important factors underlying the propensity to migrate from DR Congo to Europe, and from Europe to DR Congo. Among these factors, we aim at distinguishing the role played by individual, household and contextual factors. In the first section, we present a brief history of political and economic changes, followed by a review of the literature on the determinants of departures and returns among Congolese. Data and descriptive analyses are then presented, and are followed by results of multivariate event history models. The results are divided into two main parts. The first one devoted to the analysis of migration out of DR Congo, and the second one to the analysis of return migration from Europe to Africa

Migration has been part of people’s experience in many parts of Africa throughout history (De Bruin et al. 2001) and Ghana is no exception. Migration flows were typically regional due to commerce, forced labor and circulatory nomadic routes. Over the last decades however, migration patterns extended geographically with larger shares of migrants moving to Europe and North America. Even within these regions, African migrant flows have been diversifying (Grillo & Mazzucato 2008). Yet little comparative empirical data exist on migration flows between Africa and Europe and many of the characteristics and changes of these flows are still largely unknown. The objective of this chapter is to first describe international migration patterns from Ghana using the quantitative MAFE household data collected in Kumasi and Accra, Ghana, and second to focus on migration from Ghana to Europe, and back, specifically as it concerns flows between Ghana, The Netherlands and the United Kingdom. This second focus uses the MAFE biographic data collected both in Ghana and in Europe.

Cette étude dresse un portrait de l’immigration subsaharienne en Belgique à l’aide de multiples sources de données quantitatives (registres, recensements, statistiques de délivrance de titres de séjour). Ces sources permettent d’évaluer les effectifs et l’évolution des migrants sub-sahariens de Belgique, et de mesurer quelques caractéristiques socio-démographiques de cette population. Sans donner de réponses à des questions importantes de nature politique, économique ou sociale, une telle approche descriptive donne des éléments utiles à la compréhension de cette immigration et des enjeux qui lui sont associés. Ce travail montre que, à l’instar de ce que l’on observe en Europe, la population migrante subsaharienne de Belgique a connu une croissance soutenue au cours des dernières décennies. Malgré cette croissance rapide, la population subsaharienne reste toutefois de taille modeste. Avec environ 130 000 individus, elle représente à peine 1 % de la population du Royaume. La diversifi cation des origines des migrants sub-sahariens est une autre évolution notable des vingt dernières années. Même si les anciennes colonies, en particulier la RD Congo, restent les principaux pays d’origine des migrants subsahariens en Belgique, on observe une croissance sensible des migrants en provenance d’autres pays, tels le Cameroun et la Guinée. Les données issues de recensements montrent aussi que les migrants sub-sahariens ont – en moyenne – un niveau d’instruction assez élevé, même s’il varie sensiblement en fonction de l’origine des migrants. Ce niveau d’instruction élevé, refl étant notamment la forte sélectivité de la migration en fonction du capital humain dans les pays d’origine, contredit l’image classique de migrants africains miséreux et peu qualifi és. Nous montrons également dans ce travail que la population migrante sub-saharienne est essentiellement urbaine, localisée surtout en Région de Bruxelles-Capitale et, dans une moindre mesure, dans les grandes villes de Wallonie et de Flandre. Enfi n, cette étude exploite des données récentes et encore peu connues sur la délivrance des premiers titres de séjour, afi n d’explorer les motifs de migration. Alors que la répartition des motifs varie quelque peu selon l’origine des migrants, les trois premiers motifs légaux pour entrer sur le territoire belge sont respectivement le regroupement familial, la poursuite d’études et l’octroi d’une protection internationale. En défi nitive, cette approche, basée sur l’exploitation critique de sources complémentaires met en évidence des évolutions et caractéristiques méconnues de la population sub-saharienne, qui nuancent ou contredisent certaines idées reçues. Par ailleurs, ce travail met également en évidence les diffi cultés rencontrées pour mesurer les tendances et caractéristiques de la migration subsaharienne en Belgique, liées aux imperfections de l’appareil statistique existant. This study provides a description of sub-Saharan immigration in Belgium, using multiple sources of quantitative data (registers, censuses, and data on residence permits). These sources are used to assess the size and evolution of sub-Saharan migrants in Belgium, and to describe some socio-demographic characteristics of this population. While not providing answers to important social, political or economic questions related to sub- Saharan migration in Belgium, this descriptive approach nevertheless helps understand African immigration and issues associated with it. This work shows that, like what is observed in Europe, the sub-Saharan migrant population of Belgium has grown steadily over the last twenty years. Despite this rapid growth, the sub-Saharan population remains small. With approximately 130 000 individuals, it represents barely 1% of the population of the Kingdom. The diversifi cation of origins of sub-Saharan migrants is another signifi cant change of the last decades. While the former colonies, particularly the DR Congo, remain the main origin countries of sub-Saharan migrants in Belgium, there is signifi cant growth in migrants from other countries such as Cameroon and Guinea. Data from censuses also show that sub-Saharan migrants have - on average - fairly high levels of education, although there are large differences depending on the origin of migrants. High levels of education, refl ecting the strong selectivity of migration in the countries of origin, contradict the classical picture of poor and uneducated African migrants. We also show in this work that the migrant population from sub-Saharan Africa is predominantly urban, localized mainly in the Brussels Capital Region and - to a lesser extent - in major cities of Wallonia and Flanders. Finally, this study uses recent data on residence permits to explore migration motives. While the patterns vary somewhat depending on the origin of migrants, the top three legal ways to obtain a residence permit are family reunifi cation, studies and the granting of international protection. In summary, this approach highlights major changes and characteristics of the sub-Saharan African population in Belgium; some results qualify or contradict conventional wisdom. Moreover, this work also highlights the diffi culties in describing the characteristics and evolutions of the sub-Saharan migration in Belgium, refl ecting the imperfections in the existing statistical system.

L’immigration subsaharienne occupe une place majeure dans le débat public européen. Tout se passe comme si les migrations africaines, et singulièrement subsahariennes, représentaient un flux massif d’immigration en Europe et d’exode en Afrique. L’immigration est perçue comme étant à sens unique, comme s’il n’y avait pas de retours en dehors des raccompagnements aux frontières. A partir des données de MAFE-Sénégal et MAFE-Congo*, cette présentation propose d’examiner les tendances et les facteurs des migrations africaines en s’intéressant à la fois aux départs et aux retours. On y montre que, au Sénégal comme en RDC, deux modèles de migration coexistent : celui des migrations orientées vers les pays africains et celui des migrations orientées vers les pays développés. Ces deux modèles diffèrent du point de vue des déterminants des départs, des propensions au retour et des facteurs explicatifs du retour. Les résultats montrent, par ailleurs, que la place respective de ces deux types de migration a évolué différemment dans les deux pays depuis le milieu des années 1970. En définitive, il apparaît que les migrations de retour « spontanée » (c’est-à-dire non liées à un raccompagnement ou à programme d’aide au retour) ne sont pas rares : 5 ans après leur départ, 25% des Sénégalais partis en migration sont retournés au pays. Dans le détail, les résultats suggèrent que les retours sont d’autant nombreux et rapides que les conditions de départ sont faciles.

This study documents the impact of political and economic crises in DR Congo on international migration since the mid 1970s. Using a recent longitudinal survey conducted in Kinshasa and event history models, we show that political and economic troubles have influenced migration from DR Congo. Separate models by destination show notably that political crises have had a strong impact on migration to developed countries, while both political and economic troubles influenced migration to African countries. Finally we show that migration is less selective with respect to education in times of political crises.