1. A definition for influenza pandemics based on historial records
- Author
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Roy Jennings and Christopher W. Potter
- Subjects
Microbiology (medical) ,education.field_of_study ,Strain (biology) ,Population ,Outbreak ,History, 19th Century ,History, 20th Century ,Biology ,Influenza pandemic ,Orthomyxoviridae ,History, 21st Century ,Virology ,Emergent virus ,Infectious Diseases ,Virus strain ,Terminology as Topic ,Influenza, Human ,Pandemic ,Human mortality from H5N1 ,Humans ,education ,Pandemics ,Demography - Abstract
Summary Objective To analyse the records of past influenza outbreaks to determine a definition for pandemics. Methods Analysis of publications of large outbreaks of influenza which have occurred since 1889/90, and to match the results against the current definitions of an influenza pandemic. Results According to the general understanding of a pandemic, nine outbreaks of influenza since 1889/90 satisfy the definition; however, for two of these, occurring in 1900 and 1933, the data are limited. The special condition for an influenza pandemic requires, in one definition, that the virus strain responsible could not have arisen from the previous circulating strain by mutation; and in the second, that the new strain be a different subtype to the previously circulating strain. Both these restrictions deny pandemic status to two, and possibly three, influenza outbreaks which were pandemics according to the more general understanding of the term. These observations suggest that a re-evaluation of the criteria which define influenza pandemics should be carried out. Conclusion The contradiction outlined above brings the previous definitions of an influenza pandemic into question; however, this can be resolved by defining an influenza pandemic by the following criteria. Thus, an influenza pandemic arises at a single, specific place and spreads rapidly to involve numerous countries. The haemagglutinin (HA) of the emergent virus does not cross-react serologically with the previously dominant virus strain(s), and there is a significant lack of immunity in the population against the emergent virus. These three criteria are interlinked and can be determined early to alert authorities who could respond appropriately. Other criteria associated with pandemics are necessarily retrospective, although important and valid. The implications of this definition are discussed.
- Published
- 2011
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