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Socio‐economic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been widely used to analyze global change impacts, but representing their diversity is a challenge for the analytical tools applied to them. Taking Great Britain as an example, we represent a set of stakeholder‐elaborated UK‐SSP scenarios, linked to climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways), in a globally‐embedded agent‐based modeling framework. We find that distinct model components are required to account for divergent behavioral, social and societal conditions in the SSPs, and that these have dramatic impacts on land system outcomes. From strong social networks and environmental sustainability in SSP1 to land consolidation and technological intensification in SSP5, scenario‐specific model designs vary widely from one another and from present‐day conditions. Changes in social and human capitals reflecting social cohesion, equality, health and education can generate impacts larger than those of technological and economic change, and comparable to those of modeled climate change. We develop an open‐access, transferrable model framework and provide UK‐SSP projections to 2080 at 1 km2 resolution, revealing large differences in land management intensities, provision of a range of ecosystem services, and the knowledge and motivations underlying land manager decision‐making. These differences suggest the existence of large but underappreciated areas of scenario space, within which novel options for land system sustainability could occur., Key Points: A national‐scale agent‐based model is developed to represent paired climatic and socio‐economic scenarios in the land system. Key scenario characteristics relate to forms of human behavior, interactions and societal preferences. Large differences emerge between scenarios in terms of land management intensities, ecosystem service provision and land sparing., Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318, Natural Environment Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000270, Climate Resilience Programme, Forestry Commission UK Forestry Commission http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100017497, UKRI, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266, Global Food Security Programme, DAAD, German Academic Exchange Service London http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001654, Government of the United Kingdom http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100013986, Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001655, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100009133, Leibniz‐Gemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001664, https://landchange.earth/CRAFTY, https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/CY8WE

Socio-economic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been widely used to analyze global change impacts, but representing their diversity is a challenge for the analytical tools applied to them. Taking Great Britain as an example, we represent a set of stakeholder-elaborated UK-SSP scenarios, linked to climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways), in a globally-embedded agent-based modeling framework. We find that distinct model components are required to account for divergent behavioral, social and societal conditions in the SSPs, and that these have dramatic impacts on land system outcomes. From strong social networks and environmental sustainability in SSP1 to land consolidation and technological intensification in SSP5, scenario-specific model designs vary widely from one another and from present-day conditions. Changes in social and human capitals reflecting social cohesion, equality, health and education can generate impacts larger than those of technological and economic change, and comparable to those of modeled climate change. We develop an open-access, transferrable model framework and provide UK-SSP projections to 2080 at 1 km2 resolution, revealing large differences in land management intensities, provision of a range of ecosystem services, and the knowledge and motivations underlying land manager decision-making. These differences suggest the existence of large but underappreciated areas of scenario space, within which novel options for land system sustainability could occur.

Socio-economic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been widely used to analyse global change impacts, but representing their diversity is a challenge for the analytical tools applied to them. Taking Great Britain as an example, we represent a set of stakeholder-elaborated UK-SSP scenarios, linked to climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways), in a globally-embedded agent-based modelling framework. We find that distinct model components are required to account for divergent behavioural, social and societal conditions in the SSPs, and that these have dramatic impacts on land system outcomes. From strong social networks and environmental sustainability in SSP1 to land consolidation and technological intensification in SSP5, scenario-specific model designs vary widely from one another and from present-day conditions. Changes in social and human capitals reflecting social cohesion, equality, health and education can generate impacts larger than those of technological and economic change, and comparable to those of modelled climate change. We develop an open-access, transferrable model framework and provide UK-SSP projections to 2080 at 1km2 resolution, revealing large differences in land management intensities, provision of a range of ecosystem services, and the knowledge and motivations underlying land manager decision-making. These differences suggest the existence of large but underappreciated areas of scenario space, within which novel options for land system sustainability could occur.

Socio-economic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been widely used to analyze global change impacts, but representing their diversity is a challenge for the analytical tools applied to them. Taking Great Britain as an example, we represent a set of stakeholder-elaborated UK-SSP scenarios, linked to climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways), in a globally-embedded agent-based modeling framework. We find that distinct model components are required to account for divergent behavioral, social and societal conditions in the SSPs, and that these have dramatic impacts on land system outcomes. From strong social networks and environmental sustainability in SSP1 to land consolidation and technological intensification in SSP5, scenario-specific model designs vary widely from one another and from present-day conditions. Changes in social and human capitals reflecting social cohesion, equality, health and education can generate impacts larger than those of technological and economic change, and comparable to those of modeled climate change. We develop an open-access, transferrable model framework and provide UK-SSP projections to 2080 at 1 km$^2$ resolution, revealing large differences in land management intensities, provision of a range of ecosystem services, and the knowledge and motivations underlying land manager decision-making. These differences suggest the existence of large but underappreciated areas of scenario space, within which novel options for land system sustainability could occur.

(eng): Supplying food for the anticipated global population of over 9 billion in 2050 under changing climate conditions is one of the major challenges of the 21st century. Agricultural expansion and intensification, contributes to global environmental change, and risks the long-term sustainability of the planet. It has been proposed that no more than 15% of the global ice-free land surface should be converted to cropland. Bioenergy production for land-based climate mitigation places additional pressure on limited land resources. Here we test normative targets of food supply and bioenergy production within the cropland planetary boundary using a global land-use model. The results suggest supplying the global population with adequate food is possible without cropland expansion exceeding the planetary boundary. Yet this requires an increase in food production, especially in developing countries, as well as a decrease in global crop yield gaps. However under current assumptions of future food requirements, it was not possible to also produce significant amounts of first generation bioenergy without cropland expansion. These results suggest that meeting food and bioenergy demands within the planetary boundaries would need a shift away from current trends, for example, requiring major change in the demand-side of the food system or advancing biotechnologies.

An important driving force behind urban expansion is the growth of the urban population. But for Europe, this is not a sufficient explanation. The major trend is that European cities have become much less compact. Since the mid-1950s European cities have expanded on average by 78%, whereas the population has grown by only 33%. In the PLUREL project - an integrated project within the EU’s 6th Research Framework Programme - more than 100 researchers from 15 countries analysed the impacts of urban land consumption at a pan-European level and, through six European and one Chinese case studies, identified how land use conflicts and the pressure towards peri-urban areas can be strategically managed in different development and regulatory contexts. To summarise, the following strategies were identified as important steps towards more sustainable urban-rural futures: (i) better coordination of transport, land use and open space planning; (ii) urban containment and densification – development of a green compact city; (iii) preservation of blue and green infrastructure; and (iv) preservation of agricultural land and the promotion of local production. The need also remains to strengthen governance at the regional level while at the pan-European level there is clearly a need for more policy attention to be given to urban-rural linkages.

International audience; An important driving force behind urban expansion is the growth of the urban population. But for Europe, this is not a sufficient explanation. The major trend is that European cities have become much less compact. Since the mid-1950s European cities have expanded on average by 78%, whereas the population has grown by only 33%. In the PLUREL project - an integrated project within the EU's 6th Research Framework Programme - more than 100 researchers from 15 countries analysed the impacts of urban land consumption at a pan-European level and, through six European and one Chinese case studies, identified how land use conflicts and the pressure towards peri-urban areas can be strategically managed in different development and regulatory contexts. To summarise, the following strategies were identified as important steps towards more sustainable urban-rural futures: (i) better coordination of transport, land use and open space planning; (ii) urban containment and densification - development of a green compact city; (iii) preservation of blue and green infrastructure; and (iv) preservation of agricultural land and the promotion of local production. The need also remains to strengthen governance at the regional level while at the pan-European level there is clearly a need for more policy attention to be given to urban-rural linkages.

The environmental consequences of global climate change are predicted to have their greatest effect at high latitudes and have great potential to impact fragile tundra ecosystems. The Arctic tundra is a vast biodiversity resource and provides breeding areas for many migratory geese. Importantly, tundra ecosystems\ud also currently act as a global carbon “sink”, buffering carbon emissions from human activities. In January 2003, a new three year project was implemented to understand and model the interrelationships between goose population dynamics, conservation, European land use/agriculture and climate change. A range of potential future climate and land-use scenarios will be applied to the models and combined with information from field experiments on grazing and climate change in the Arctic. This paper describes the content of the research programme as well as issues in relation to engaging stakeholders with the project.

International audience

The pressure on water resources is continuously increasing in Europe. If a great deal of scientific knowledge is available in many fields, this knowledge is often treated in isolation. To support the scientific basis for integrated water management, the MULINO project, an acronym for MULti-sectoral, Integrated and Operational decision support system (DSS) for the sustainable use of water resources at the catchment scale, funded by the European Union, is currently executed. The purpose of the MULINO project is to provide a tool to improve the integrated management of water resources at the catchment scale, following the requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD, J.O.CE, 2000). The DSS developed is a computer system based on hydrological modelling, multi-disciplinary indicators and multi-criteria evaluation procedures. The underlying design of the DSS is based on the Driving Forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Responses framework for reporting on environmental issues (EEA, 1999; OECD, 1993). One case study is the 700 km² Dyle catchment situated in the centre of Belgium (50°38N 4°45E) and part of the Scheldt basin. A coupling of an integrated hydrological model (SWAT: Soil and Water Assessment Tool, Arnold et al., 1993) with land use change modelling (SFARMMOD, Audsley et al., 1979) is developed in close collaboration with local end users and stakeholders. This work will provide a useful tool to analyse water resources management alternatives and to assist local managers in complex problems such as flooding, nitrate and pesticides contamination of waters, as to identify solutions for the implementation of the WFD at the catchment scale.

National audience

International audience

24 páginas, 2 figuras, 7 tablas, 45 referencias., [ES]: El modelo integrado ACCE5S (AgroClimatic Change and European Soil Suitability) es un sistema híbrido de predicción agroecológica, en el que se combina la capacidad de explicación y precisión de la simulación dinámica de cultivos con la simplicidad empírica y aplicabilidad de la evaluación de tierras. Entre otras prestaciones correspondientes a su estructura modular, el modelo describe el desarrollo de los cultivos y el proceso de erosión hídrica haciendo uso de características climáticas, edáficas y de los propios cultivos. Como proyecto de la Comisión Europea, el modelo fue desarrollado por un grupo de científicos de diversos centros de investigación, a fin de conseguir una herramienta con la suficiente precisión para pronosticar, a nivel regional, el impacto de un posible cambio climático sobre los suelos y cultivos de Europa. A modo de test de validación, se hizo aplicación del modelo ACCESS para un conjunto de lugares representativos (34) de las comarcas agrícolas de Andalucía, tanto para las condiciones climáticas actuales, como para una supuesta perturbación estimada por los modelos de circulación global de la atmósfera (para el año 2050) que representa un incremento medio de temperatura de 1.75ºC, una disminución de las precipitaciones de 7.5% y un nivel de CO2 de 523 ppmv. Los resultados pronosticados sobre capacidad de producción actual, con referencia al cultivo del girasol, alcanzan el valor medio de 1177 kg/ha, presentando diferencias significativas entre las comarcas seleccionadas. Para el cambio climático simulado, los rendimientos mejoran considerablemente, alcanzando un valor medio de 1763 kg/ha que representa un incremento del 50%. Entre los resultados actuales pronosticados sobre riesgo de erosión domina la Clase 'V4-Moderadamente baja' de vulnerabilidad, mientras que en el escenario de cambio, se desplaza la dominancia a la Clase 'V3-Baja' pero también aumenta la proporción de Clase 'V6-Ligeramente elevada'. En síntesis, el supuesto cambio climático repercutiría favorablemente en la capacidad de producción de los suelos agrícolas de Andalucía, mientras que el riesgo de erosión de estos suelos se mantendría en valores similares a los actuales., [EN]: The ACCESS model (AgroClimatic Change and European Soil Suitability) is an integrated agroecological prediction system, which combines the explicative capacity and accuracy of simulation modelling with the empirical simplicity and applicability of land evaluation. With a modular structure and many options, the model describes crop growth development and soil erosion process by using climate, soil and crop characteristics. This model was developed within a EU project by a multi-disciplinary research group from six countries, in arder to provide a precise tool to predict the effects of climate change on European soils and crops. As a validation test, the ACCESS model was applied to in sites representative of 34 agricultural zones (over 43233 km2) of Andalucia region. This application considered an initial scenario with current climate conditions and a second scenario defined by a climate perturbation predicted for the year 2050, i.e. with a mean temperature change of +1.75ºC, -7.5% precipitation and 523 ppmv CO2. The simulations predicted average sunflower yield of 1177 kg/ha for current situation, and 1763 kg/ha for 2050 which represents an increase of 50%. For erosion risk, the dominant modelled vulnerability classes are 'Class V4-Moderately low' and 'Class V3-Slightly low', respectively in both scenarios. According to these results, it is to be expected that optimum crop growing conditions will give rise under a changed climate and the erosion risk will remain in the same degree, as are found at present. Key words: Jand evaluation. crop si mulation modeJling, decision lrees. pedo-transfer functions. degradation risk assessment. natural resources survcy., El proyecto ACCESS, 1992-1995, fue financiado por la comisión Europea DGXII Programa de Medio Ambiente, contrato nº EV5V-CT92-0129.

This ecophysiological primer serves as an introductory chapter on the concepts applied in subsequent chapters reviewing the state of knowledge concerning the effects of climate change on ecological processes that affect impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and some socio-economic systems. Because many of the responses of terrestrial plants in the diverse ecosystems are similar, this primer discusses: the effects of important climatic driving forces that are likely to change; soil fertility as a modifying effect with a brief discussion on soil biological factors; and ecological interactions between the different organisms in each ecosystem.

8 pages, 3 figures, 13 references.-- Vol. 45: Implications of "Global Environmental Change" for crops in Europe.-- 1-3, abril, 1996, Churchill College, Cambridge., ACCESS (AgroClimatic Change and European Soil Suitability) is a spatially distributed model that will evaluate the impact of climate change on the soil water balance (including a submodel of preferential water flow through macropores), the risk of land degradation (soil erosion and salinisation), root development, and crop growth for a range of strategic European crops (wheat, maize, sunflower, soybean). ACCESS comprises two parallel, integrated and complementary model components: ACCESS-I and ACCESS-II, that work wilh different time-steps and at different spatial scales. ACCESS-I uses monthly meteorological data and simple soils' information, notably from soil surveys. ACCESS-I1 requires daily meteorological data and more detailed soils' information. ACCESS-I is applicable to large geographic regions (including countries), whereas ACCESS-II can be applied to smaller sub-regions and individual sites. An important feature of modelling at different levels of complexity is that the assumptions used in the application of ACCESS-I over large geographic areas can be cross-validated against ACCESS-II applied to sites or sub-regions within that larger area. In this way, the potential errors associated with scaling-up can be assessed., The development of ACCESS was funded through DGXII ofthe European Commission (contract number EV5VCT920129) under the Framework 3 Programme.

The Regional Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for Europe and Central Asia produced by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) provides a critical analysis of the state of knowledge regarding the importance, status, and trends of biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people. The assessment analyses the direct and underlying causes for the observed changes in biodiversity and in nature’s contributions to people, and the impact that these changes have on the quality of life of people. The assessment, finally, identifies a mix of governance options, policies and management practices that are currently available to reduce the loss of biodiversity and of nature’s contributions to people in that region. The assessment addresses terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal biodiversity and covers current status and trends, going back in time several decades, and future projections, with a focus on the 2020-2050 period.

The aim of this chapter is to assess evidence of the status and trends of the drivers that affect biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people. There are three wider categories of nature’s contributions to people: regulating, material and non-material contributions, that are similar to, but not identical to classifications of ecosystem services (see Chapter 1). Ecosystems are dynamic interacting networks of animals, plants, fungi, and microorganisms, above and below ground and water-surfaces. These biodiverse networks of interacting organisms respond to a set of environmental factors such as climate, soil, or water conditions. Social-ecological systems also include human activities (direct drivers) that modify almost all of these ecosystem interactions and environmental factors, and the underlying societal (indirect) drivers of these activities. It is thus important to understand the status and trends of the direct and indirect drivers that affect biodiversity, including ecosystems and, thereby, affect nature’s contributions to people.

The objective of this research is to analyse temporal changes in historic rainfall variability across Scotland using\ud different measures of variability. The CUSUM and sequential Mann-Kendall test applied to records from 28 weather\ud stations with up to 80 years of daily precipitation data reveal the occurrence of abrupt changes in the rainfall trends.\ud Most weather stations show a turning point between 1978 and 1985, although some stations situated in Eastern\ud Scotland have more than one turning point. The temporal changes in rainfall variability across Scotland are presented\ud using a number of measures of variability.