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Increasingly, uncertainties in predictions from galaxy formation simulations (at sub-Milky Way masses) are dominated by uncertainties in stellar evolution inputs. In this paper, we present the full set of updates from the FIRE-2 version of the Feedback In Realistic Environments (FIRE) project code, to the next version, FIRE-3. While the transition from FIRE-1 to FIRE-2 focused on improving numerical methods, here we update the stellar evolution tracks used to determine stellar feedback inputs, e.g. stellar mass-loss (O/B and AGB), spectra (luminosities and ionization rates), and supernova rates (core-collapse and Ia), as well as detailed mass-dependent yields. We also update the low-temperature cooling and chemistry, to enable improved accuracy at $T \lesssim 10^{4}\,$K and densities $n\gg 1\,{\rm cm^{-3}}$, and the meta-galactic ionizing background. All of these synthesize newer empirical constraints on these quantities and updated stellar evolution and yield models from a number of groups, addressing different aspects of stellar evolution. To make the updated models as accessible as possible, we provide fitting functions for all of the relevant updated tracks, yields, etc, in a form specifically designed so they can be directly 'plugged in' to existing galaxy formation simulations. We also summarize the default FIRE-3 implementations of 'optional' physics, including spectrally-resolved cosmic rays and supermassive black hole growth and feedback., Comment: 26 pages, 12 figures. Submitted to MNRAS. Comments welcome

Lichen planus is a chronic, inflammatory, immune-mediated dermatosis affecting the patient’s skin, scalp, mucous membranes, and nails. Drug-induced lichen planus is described after the administration of antimalarials, ß-blockers, methyldopa, NSAIDs, penicillamines, and sodium aurothiomalate. The use of biologicals such as adalimumab, etanercept, and infliximab has also been linked with the appearance of lichenoid eruptions in the recent past. In this case, we report on a patient developing oral and cutaneous lichen planus after the administration of dupilumab. The lichenoid lesions occurred after 11 months of the drug’s administration and involved the buccal walls, trunk, and extremities. Dupilumab had been administered in an effort to counter severe atopic dermatitis exacerbations. Dupilumab is associated with a downregulation of T-helper 2 cell activation by blocking the Interleukin-4/Interleukin-13 pathway, so leading to a TH1/TH2 imbalance. This imbalance may cause a shift toward a TH1-mediated immune response and be an explanation for the drug-induced lichen planus. Dupilumab was discontinued, and the patient was treated with oral corticosteroids and UVB phototherapy, leading to a significant improvement in the lichen planus lesions.

Accurately reproducing the thin cold gas discs observed in nearby spiral galaxies has been a long standing issue in cosmological simulations. Here, we present measurements of the radially resolved HI scale height in 22 non-interacting Milky Way-mass galaxies from the FIREbox cosmological volume. We measure the HI scale heights using five different approaches commonly used in the literature: fitting the vertical volume density distribution with a Gaussian, the distance between maximum and half-maximum of the vertical volume density distribution, a semi-empirical description using the velocity dispersion and the galactic gravitational potential, the analytic assumption of hydrostatic equilibrium, and the distance from the midplane which encloses $\gtrsim$60 per cent of the HI mass. We find median HI scale heights, measured using the vertical volume distribution, that range from ~100 pc in the galactic centres to ~800 pc in the outskirts and are in excellent agreement with recent observational results. We speculate that the presence of a realistic multiphase interstellar medium, including cold gas, and realistic stellar feedback are the drivers behind the realistic HI scale heights., 5 pages + appendix, 3 figures, updated to version accepted by MNRAS

Feedback from accreting supermassive black holes (SMBHs) is thought to be a primary driver of quenching in massive galaxies, but the best way to implement SMBH physics into galaxy formation simulations remains ambiguous. As part of the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project, we explore the effects of different modeling choices for SMBH accretion and feedback in a suite of $\sim500$ cosmological zoom-in simulations across a wide range of halo mass (10^10-10^13 Msun). Within the suite, we vary the numerical schemes for BH accretion and feedback, the accretion efficiency, and the strength of mechanical, radiative, and cosmic ray feedback independently. We then compare the outcomes to observed galaxy scaling relations. We find several models that satisfy the observational constraints, and for which the energetics in different feedback channels are physically plausible. Interestingly, cosmic rays accelerated by SMBHs play an important role in many successful models. However, it is non-trivial to reproduce scaling relations across halo mass, and many model variations produce qualitatively incorrect results regardless of parameter choices. The growth of stellar and BH mass are closely related: for example, over-massive BHs tend to over-quench galaxies. BH mass is most strongly affected by the choice of accretion efficiency in high-mass halos, but by feedback efficiency in low-mass halos. The amount of star formation suppression by SMBH feedback in low-mass halos is determined primarily by the time-integrated feedback energy. For massive galaxies, the "responsiveness" of a model (i.e. how quickly and powerfully the BH responds to gas available for accretion) is an additional important factor for quenching., 18 pages, 9 figures. Submitted to MNRAS, comments welcome

The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced health care services all around the globe, which is also reflected in the diagnosis and management of malignant melanoma (MM).We performed a retrospective assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnosis of MM in order to evaluate the effects of the pandemic on MM care.The Breslow thickness of excised MM and total number of patients with newly diagnosed MM who underwent surgery during the first year of the pandemic (March, 2020 to February, 2021; 227 subjects) were compared relative to a control period the year before (March, 2019 to February, 2020; 201 subjects), based on a retrospective study design.There was no significant decrease in the total number of excisions (227 subjects in the pre-COVID cohort vs. 201 in the COVID cohort). However, the mean Breslow thickness increased significantly from 1.1±1.4 mm in the pre-COVID group to 1.8±2.3 mm in the COVID group.We conclude that, due to several restrictions in the early phase of the pandemic, melanomas were diagnosed at a more advanced stage.

Hydrodynamic simulations provide a powerful, but computationally expensive, approach to study the interplay of dark matter and baryons in cosmological structure formation. Here we introduce the EMulating Baryonic EnRichment (EMBER) Deep Learning framework to predict baryon fields based on dark-matter-only simulations thereby reducing computational cost. EMBER comprises two network architectures, U-Net and Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks (WGANs), to predict two-dimensional gas and HI densities from dark matter fields. We design the conditional WGANs as stochastic emulators, such that multiple target fields can be sampled from the same dark matter input. For training we combine cosmological volume and zoom-in hydrodynamical simulations from the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project to represent a large range of scales. Our fiducial WGAN model reproduces the gas and HI power spectra within 10% accuracy down to ~10 kpc scales. Furthermore, we investigate the capability of EMBER to predict high resolution baryon fields from low resolution dark matter inputs through upsampling techniques. As a practical application, we use this methodology to emulate high-resolution HI maps for a dark matter simulation of a L=100 Mpc/h comoving cosmological box. The gas content of dark matter haloes and the HI column density distributions predicted by EMBER agree well with results of large volume cosmological simulations and abundance matching models. Our method provides a computationally efficient, stochastic emulator for augmenting dark matter only simulations with physically consistent maps of baryon fields., 21 pages, 12 figures, accepted by MNRAS, comments welcome

Observations and simulations have demonstrated that star formation in galaxies must be actively suppressed to prevent the formation of over-massive galaxies. Galactic outflows driven by stellar feedback or supermassive black hole accretion are often invoked to regulate the amount of cold molecular gas available for future star formation, but may not be the only relevant quenching processes in all galaxies. We present the discovery of vast molecular tidal features extending up to 64 kpc outside of a massive z=0.646 post-starburst galaxy that recently concluded its primary star-forming episode. The tidal tails contain (1.2 +/- 0.1)x10^10 Msun of molecular gas, 47 +/- 5 % of the total cold gas reservoir of the system. Both the scale and magnitude of the molecular tidal features are unprecedented compared to all known nearby or high-redshift merging systems. We infer that the cold gas was stripped from the host galaxies during the merger, which is most likely responsible for triggering the initial burst phase and the subsequent suppression of star formation. While only a single example, this result shows that galaxy mergers can regulate the cold gas contents in distant galaxies by directly removing a large fraction of the molecular gas fuel, and plausibly suppress star formation directly, a qualitatively different physical mechanism than feedback-driven outflows., Published in ApJL, 8 pages, 5 figures

We introduce a suite of cosmological volume simulations to study the evolution of galaxies as part of the Feedback in Realistic Environments project. FIREbox, the principal simulation of the present suite, provides a representative sample of galaxies (~1000 galaxies with Mstar > 10^8 Msun at z=0) at a resolution (~20 pc, m_b ~ 6x10^4 Msun) comparable to state-of-the-art galaxy zoom-in simulations. FIREbox captures the multiphase nature of the interstellar medium in a fully cosmological setting (L=22.1 Mpc) thanks to its exceptionally high dynamic range (~10^6) and the inclusion of multi-channel stellar feedback. Here, we focus on validating the simulation predictions by comparing to observational data. We find that simulated galaxies with Mstar < 10^{10.5-11} Msun have star formation rates, gas masses, and metallicities in broad agreement with observations. These galaxy scaling relations extend to low masses (Mstar ~ 10^7 Msun) and follow a (broken) power-law relationship. Also reproduced are the evolution of the cosmic HI density and the HI column density distribution at z~0-5. At low z, FIREbox predicts a peak in the stellar-mass--halo-mass relation, but also a higher abundance of massive galaxies and a higher cosmic star formation rate density than observed, showing that stellar feedback alone is insufficient to reproduce the properties of massive galaxies at late times. Given its high resolution and sample size, FIREbox offers a baseline prediction of galaxy formation theory in a $Λ$CDM Universe while also highlighting modeling challenges to be addressed in next-generation galaxy simulations., 31 pages, 17 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in MNRAS

Understanding the distribution of angular momentum during the formation of planetary systems is a key topic in astrophysics. Data from the $\textit{Kepler}$ and $\textit{Gaia}$ missions allow to investigate whether stellar rotation is correlated with the presence of planets around Sun-like stars. Here, we perform a statistical analysis of the rotation period of 493 planet-hosting stars. These are matched to a control sample, without detected planets, with similar effective temperatures, masses, radii, metallicities, and ages. We find that planet-hosting stars rotate on average $1.63 \pm 0.40$ days slower. The difference in rotation is statistically significant both in samples including and not including planets confirmed by radial velocity follow-up observations. We also analyse the dependence of rotation distribution on various stellar and planetary properties. Our results could potentially be explained by planet detection biases depending on the rotation period of their host stars in both RV and transit methods. Alternatively, they could point to a physical link between the existence of planets and stellar rotation, emphasising the need to understand the role of angular momentum in the formation and evolution planetary systems., 10 pages, 8 figures, 3 Appendix sections (10 pages, 13 figures). Accepted in MNRAS on April 4 2022

We describe a public data release of the FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations of galaxy formation, available at http://flathub.flatironinstitute.org/fire, from the Feedback In Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. FIRE-2 simulations achieve parsec-scale resolution to explicitly model the multi-phase interstellar medium while implementing direct models for stellar evolution and feedback, including stellar winds, core-collapse and Ia supernovae, radiation pressure, photoionization, and photoelectric heating. We release complete snapshots from 3 suites of simulations. The first comprises 20 simulations that zoom in on 14 Milky Way-mass galaxies, 5 SMC/LMC-mass galaxies, and 4 lower-mass galaxies including 1 ultra-faint; we release 39 snapshots across z = 0 - 10. The second comprises 4 massive galaxies, with 19 snapshots across z = 1 - 10. Finally, a high-redshift suite comprises 22 simulations, with 11 snapshots across z = 5 - 10. Each simulation also includes dozens of resolved lower-mass (satellite) galaxies in its zoom-in region. Snapshots include all stored properties for all dark matter, gas, and star particles, including 11 elemental abundances for stars and gas, and formation times (ages) of star particles. We also release accompanying (sub)halo catalogs, which include galaxy properties and member star particles. For the simulations to z = 0, including all Milky Way-mass galaxies, we release the formation coordinates and an "ex-situ" flag for all star particles, pointers to track particles across snapshots, catalogs of stellar streams, and multipole basis expansions for the halo mass distributions. We describe publicly available python packages for reading and analyzing these simulations., 22 pages. Accepted for publication in ApJS, matches the published version, with updated references. Now includes up to 39 snapshots per simulation and formation coordinates for all star particles. Data available at http://flathub.flatironinstitute.org/fire

The standard cold dark matter plus cosmological constant model predicts that galaxies form within dark-matter haloes, and that low-mass galaxies are more dark-matter dominated than massive ones. The unexpected discovery of two low-mass galaxies lacking dark matter immediately provoked concerns about the standard cosmology and ignited explorations of alternatives, including self-interacting dark matter and modified gravity. Apprehension grew after several cosmological simulations using the conventional model failed to form adequate numerical analogues with comparable internal characteristics (stellar masses, sizes, velocity dispersions and morphologies). Here we show that the standard paradigm naturally produces galaxies lacking dark matter with internal characteristics in agreement with observations. Using a state-of-the-art cosmological simulation and a meticulous galaxy-identification technique, we find that extreme close encounters with massive neighbours can be responsible for this. We predict that approximately 30 percent of massive central galaxies (with at least 1e11 solar masses in stars) harbour at least one dark-matter-deficient satellite (with 1e8 - 1e9 solar masses in stars). This distinctive class of galaxies provides an additional layer in our understanding of the role of interactions in shaping galactic properties. Future observations surveying galaxies in the aforementioned regime will provide a crucial test of this scenario., 55 pages, 4 figures, 13 supplementary figures. 29 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in Nature Astronomy. To appear on 14-February-2022. Published version: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-021-01598-4

We present models of CO(1-0) emission from Milky Way-mass galaxies at redshift zero in the FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations. We calculate the molecular abundances by post-processing the simulations with an equilibrium chemistry solver while accounting for the effects of local sources, and determine the emergent CO(1-0) emission using a line radiative transfer code. We find that the results depend strongly on the shielding length assumed, which in our models sets the attenuation of the incident UV radiation field. At the resolution of these simulations, commonly used choices for the shielding length, such as the Jeans length, result in CO abundances that are too high at a given H$_2$ abundance. We find that a model with a distribution of shielding lengths, which has a median shielding length of $\sim 3$ pc in cold gas ($T < 300$ K) for both CO and H$_{2}$, is able to reproduce both the observed CO(1-0) luminosity and inferred CO-to-H$_{2}$ conversion factor at a given star formation rate compared with observations. We suggest that this short shielding length can be thought of as a subgrid model which controls the amount of radiation that penetrates giant molecular clouds., Accepted to MNRAS. 16 pages, 10 figures

Psoriasis is an autoimmune disease caused by overactivation of TH1 (Type 1 helper cells) and TH17 (T helper 17) cells. Overactivation of TH1 cells inhibits the activity of TH2 cells involved in type 1 allergies, therefore, psoriasis patients might be less affected by type 1 allergies. This study tested if allergies were less frequent in patients with moderate to severe than with mild psoriasis. Psoriasis patients at the study site reported possible allergy symptoms and were tested for common allergens by skin prick test and IgE levels. Psoriasis was classified by PASI scores (Psoriasis Area and Severity Index) as mild (PASI

Dark matter haloes play a fundamental role in cosmological structure formation. The most common approach to model their assembly mechanisms is through N-body simulations. In this work we present an innovative pathway to predict dark matter halo formation from the initial density field using a Deep Learning algorithm. We implement and train a Deep Convolutional Neural Network (DCNN) to solve the task of retrieving Lagrangian patches from which dark matter halos will condense. The volumetric multi-label classification task is turned into a regression problem by means of the euclidean distance transformation. The network is complemented by an adaptive version of the watershed algorithm to form the entire protohalo identification pipeline. We show that splitting the segmentation problem into two distinct sub-tasks allows for training smaller and faster networks, while the predictive power of the pipeline remains the same. The model is trained on synthetic data derived from a single full N-body simulation and achieves deviations of ~10% when reconstructing the dark matter halo mass function at z=0. This approach represents a promising framework for learning highly non-linear relations in the primordial density field. As a practical application, our method can be used to produce mock dark matter halo catalogues directly from the initial conditions of N-body simulations., 10 pages, 8 figures, 1 table, submitted to MNRAS, comments welcome

Galaxy sizes correlate closely with the sizes of their parent dark matter haloes, suggesting a link between halo formation and galaxy growth. However, the precise nature of this relation and its scatter remains to be understood fully, especially for low-mass galaxies. We analyse the galaxy-halo size relation for low-mass ($M_\star \sim 10^{7-9} {\rm M_\odot}$) central galaxies over the past 12.5 billion years with the help of cosmological volume simulations (FIREbox) from the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. We find a nearly linear relationship between the half-stellar mass galaxy size $R_{1/2}$ and the parent dark matter halo virial radius $R_{\rm vir}$. This relation evolves only weakly since redshift $z = 5$: $R_{1/2} {\rm kpc} = (0.053\pm0.002)(R_{\rm vir}/35 {\rm kpc})^{0.934\pm0.054}$, with a nearly constant scatter $\langle \sigma \rangle = 0.084 [{\rm dex}]$. Whilst this ratio is similar to what is expected from models where galaxy disc sizes are set by halo angular momentum, the low-mass galaxies in our sample are not angular momentum supported, with stellar rotational to circular velocity ratios $v_{\rm rot} / v_{\rm circ} \sim 0.15$. Introducing redshift as another parameter to the GHSR does not decrease the scatter. Furthermore, this scatter does not correlate with any of the halo properties we investigate -- including spin and concentration -- suggesting that baryonic processes and feedback physics are instead critical in setting the scatter in the galaxy-halo size relation. Given the relatively small scatter and the weak dependence of the galaxy-halo size relation on redshift and halo properties for these low-mass central galaxies, we propose using galaxy sizes as an independent method from stellar masses to infer halo masses., Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures, 3 tables + 3 appendices (5 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables). Accepted for publication in MNRAS

We use ALMA observations of CO(2-1) in 13 massive ($M_{\star}\gtrsim 10^{11} M_{\odot}$) post-starburst galaxies at $z\sim0.6$ to constrain the molecular gas content in galaxies shortly after they quench their major star-forming episode. The post-starburst galaxies in this study are selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectroscopic samples (DR14) based on their spectral shapes, as part of the SQuIGGLE program. Early results showed that two post-starburst galaxies host large H$_2$ reservoirs despite their low inferred star formation rates. Here we expand this analysis to a larger statistical sample of 13 galaxies. Six of the primary targets (45%) are detected, with $M_{H_2}\gtrsim10^9 M_{\odot}$. Given their high stellar masses, this mass limit corresponds to an average gas fraction of $\langle f_{H_2} \equiv M_{H_2}/M_{\star} \rangle \sim7\%$, or ${\sim}14\%$ using lower stellar masses estimates derived from analytic, exponentially declining star formation histories. The gas fraction correlates with the $D_n4000$ spectral index, suggesting that the cold gas reservoirs decrease with time since burst, as found in local K+A galaxies. Star formation histories derived from flexible stellar population synthesis modeling support this empirical finding: galaxies that quenched $\lesssim 150$ Myr prior to observation host detectable CO(2-1) emission, while older post-starburst galaxies are undetected. The large $\mathrm{H_2}$ reservoirs and low star formation rates in the sample imply that the quenching of star formation precedes the disappearance of the cold gas reservoirs. However, within the following 100-200 Myrs, the SQuIGGLE galaxies require the additional and efficient heating or removal of cold gas to bring their low star formation rates in line with standard $\mathrm{H_2}$ scaling relations., 20 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

Galaxy mergers are crucial to understanding galaxy evolution, therefore we must determine their observational signatures to select them from large IFU galaxy samples such as MUSE and SAMI. We employ 24 high-resolution idealised hydrodynamical galaxy merger simulations based on the "Feedback In Realistic Environment" (FIRE-2) model to determine the observability of mergers to various configurations and stages using synthetic images and velocity maps. Our mergers cover a range of orbital configurations at fixed 1:2.5 stellar mass ratio for two gas rich spirals at low redshift. Morphological and kinematic asymmetries are computed for synthetic images and velocity maps spanning each interaction. We divide the interaction sequence into three: (1) the pair phase; (2) the merging phase; and (3) the post-coalescence phase. We correctly identify mergers between first pericentre passage and 500 Myr after coalescence using kinematic asymmetry with 66% completeness, depending upon merger phase and the field-of-view of the observation. We detect fewer mergers in the pair phase (40%) and many more in the merging and post-coalescence phases (97%). We find that merger detectability decreases with field-of-view, except in retrograde mergers, where centrally concentrated asymmetric kinematic features enhances their detectability. Using a cut-off derived from a combination of photometric and kinematic asymmetry, we increase these detections to 89% overall, 79% in pairs, and close to 100% in the merging and post-coalescent phases. By using this combined asymmetry cut-off we mitigate some of the effects caused by smaller fields-of-view subtended by massively multiplexed integral field spectroscopy programmes., Comment: Accepted to MNRAS

We present visual classifications of merger-induced tidal disturbances in 143 $\rm{M}_* \sim 10^{11}\rm{M}_\odot$ post-starburst galaxies at z$\sim$0.7 identified in the SQuIGG$\vec{L}$E Sample. This sample spectroscopically selects galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey that have stopped their primary epoch of star formation within the past $\sim$500 Myrs. Visual classifications are performed on Hyper Suprime Cam (HSC) i-band imaging. We compare to a control sample of mass- and redshift-matched star-forming and quiescent galaxies from the Large Early Galaxy Census and find that post-starburst galaxies are more likely to be classified as disturbed than either category. This corresponds to a factor of $3.6^{+2.9}_{-1.3}$ times the disturbance rate of older quiescent galaxies and $2.1^{+1.9}_{-.73}$ times the disturbance rate of star-forming galaxies. Assuming tidal features persist for $\lesssim500$ Myr, this suggests merging is coincident with quenching in a significant fraction of these post-starbursts. Galaxies with tidal disturbances are younger on average than undisturbed post-starburst galaxies in our sample, suggesting tidal features from a major merger may have faded over time. This may be exacerbated by the fact that, on average, the undisturbed subset is fainter, rendering low surface brightness tidal features harder to identify. However, the presence of ten young ($\lesssim150$ Myr since quenching) undisturbed galaxies suggests that major mergers are not the only fast physical mechanism that shut down the primary epoch of star formation in massive galaxies at intermediate redshift., Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, accepted to ApJ

The concurrent growth of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) and their host galaxies remains to be fully explored, especially at high redshift. While often understood as a consequence of self-regulation via AGN feedback, it can also be explained by alternative SMBH accretion models. Here, we expand on previous work by studying the growth of SMBHs with the help of a large suite of cosmological zoom-in simulations (MassiveFIRE) that are part of the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. The growth of SMBHs is modelled in post-processing with different black hole accretion models, placements, and merger treatments, and validated by comparing to on-the-fly calculations. Scaling relations predicted by the gravitational torque driven accretion (GTDA) model agree with observations at low redshift without the need for AGN feedback, in contrast to models in which the accretion rate depends strongly on SMBH mass. At high redshift, we find deviations from the local scaling relations in line with previous theoretical results. In particular, SMBHs are under-massive, presumably due to stellar feedback, but start to grow efficiently once their host galaxies reach $M_* \sim 10^{10} M_{\odot}$. We analyse and explain these findings in the context of a simple analytic model. Finally, we show that the predicted scaling relations depend sensitively on the SMBH location and the efficiency of SMBH merging, particularly in low-mass systems. These findings highlight the relevance of understanding the evolution of SMBH-galaxy scaling relations to predict the rate of gravitational wave signals from SMBH mergers across cosmic history., 25 pages, 17 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

The galaxy size-stellar mass and central surface density-stellar mass relationships are observational constraints on galaxy formation models. However, inferring the physical size of a galaxy from observed stellar emission is non-trivial due to various observational effects. Consequently, forward-modeling light-based sizes from simulations is desirable. In this work, we use the {\skirt} dust radiative transfer code to generate synthetic observations of massive galaxies ($M_{*}\sim10^{11}\,\rm{M_{\odot}}$ at $z=2$, hosted by haloes of mass $M_{\rm{halo}}\sim10^{12.5}\,\rm{M_{\odot}}$) from high-resolution cosmological zoom-in simulations that form part of the Feedback In Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. The simulations used in this paper include explicit stellar feedback but no active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback. From each mock observation, we infer the effective radius ($R_e$), as well as the stellar mass surface density within this radius and within $1\,\rm{kpc}$ ($\Sigma_e$ and $\Sigma_1$, respectively). We first investigate how well the intrinsic half-mass radius and stellar mass surface density can be inferred from observables. The predicted sizes and surface densities are within a factor of two of the intrinsic values. We then compare our predictions to the observed size-mass relationship and the $\Sigma_1-M_\star$ and $\Sigma_e-M_\star$ relationships. At $z\gtrsim2$, the simulated massive galaxies are in general agreement with observational scaling relations. At $z\lesssim2$, they evolve to become too compact but still star-forming, in the stellar mass and redshift regime where many of them should be quenched. Our results suggest that some additional source of feedback, such as AGN driven outflows, is necessary in order to decrease the central densities of the simulated massive galaxies to bring them into agreement with observations at $z\lesssim2$., Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, accepted to mnras, final accepted version

We describe the SQuIGGLE survey of intermediate-redshift post-starburst galaxies. We leverage the large sky coverage of the SDSS to select ~1300 recently-quenched galaxies at 0.575% of SQuIGGLE galaxies formed at least a quarter of their total stellar mass in the recent burst, which ended just ~200Myr before observation. We find that SQuIGGLE galaxies are on average younger and more burst-dominated than most other z, Comment: 23 pages, 16 figures, accepted to ApJ

We characterize mass, momentum, energy and metal outflow rates of multi-phase galactic winds in a suite of FIRE-2 cosmological "zoom-in" simulations from the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. We analyze simulations of low-mass dwarfs, intermediate-mass dwarfs, Milky Way-mass halos, and high-redshift massive halos. Consistent with previous work, we find that dwarfs eject about 100 times more gas from their interstellar medium (ISM) than they form in stars, while this mass "loading factor" drops below one in massive galaxies. Most of the mass is carried by the hot phase ($>10^5$ K) in massive halos and the warm phase ($10^3-10^5$ K) in dwarfs; cold outflows ($, Accepted to MNRAS with minor revisions, main body is 25 pages with 14 figures

Without additional heating, radiative cooling of gas in the halos of massive galaxies (Milky Way and above) produces cold gas or stars in excess of that observed. Previous work suggested that AGN jets are likely required, but the form of jet energy required to quench remains unclear. This is particularly challenging for galaxy simulations, in which the resolution is orders of magnitude coarser than necessary to form and evolve the jet. On such scales, the uncertain parameters include: jet energy form (kinetic, thermal, and cosmic ray (CR) energy), energy, momentum, and mass flux, magnetic field strength and geometry, jet precession angle and period, opening-angle, and duty cycle. We investigate all of these parameters in a $10^{14}\,{\rm M}_{\odot}$ halo using high-resolution non-cosmological MHD simulations with the FIRE-2 (Feedback In Realistic Environments) stellar feedback model, conduction, and viscosity. We explore which scenarios match observational constraints and show that CR-dominated jets can most efficiently quench the central galaxy through a combination of CR pressure support and a modification of the thermal instability. Jets with most energy in mildly relativistic ($\sim$ MeV or $\sim10^{10}$ K) thermal plasma work, but require a factor $\sim 10$ larger energy input. For a fixed energy flux, jets with higher specific energy (longer cooling times) quench more effectively. For this halo size, kinetic jets are less efficient in quenching unless they have wide opening or precession angles. Magnetic fields play a minor role except when the magnetic flux reaches $\gtrsim 10^{44}$ erg s$^{-1}$ in a kinetic jet model, which causes the jet cocoon to significantly widen, and the quenching to become explosive. We conclude that the criteria for a successful jet model are an optimal energy flux and a sufficiently wide jet cocoon with long enough cooling time at the cooling radius., 29 pages, 20 figures

We investigate thin and thick stellar disc formation in Milky-Way-mass galaxies using twelve FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations. All simulated galaxies experience an early period of bursty star formation that transitions to a late-time steady phase of near-constant star formation. Stars formed during the late-time steady phase have more circular orbits and thin-disc-like morphology at $z=0$, whilst stars born during the bursty phase have more radial orbits and thick-disc structure. The median age of thick-disc stars at $z=0$ correlates strongly with this transition time. We also find that galaxies with an earlier transition from bursty to steady star formation have a higher thin-disc fractions at $z=0$. Three of our systems have minor mergers with LMC-size satellites during the thin-disc phase. These mergers trigger short starbursts but do not destroy the thin disc nor alter broad trends between the star formation transition time and thin/thick disc properties. If our simulations are representative of the Universe, then stellar archaeological studies of the Milky Way (or M31) provide a window into past star-formation modes in the Galaxy. Current age estimates of the Galactic thick disc would suggest that the Milky Way transitioned from bursty to steady phase $\sim$6.5 Gyr ago; prior to that time the Milky Way likely lacked a recognisable thin disc., Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, submitted to MNRAS

We present the first detailed study of the spatially resolved dust continuum emission of simulated galaxies at 1

We use FIRE-2 simulations to examine 3-D variations of gas-phase elemental abundances of [O/H], [Fe/H], and [N/H] in 11 Milky Way (MW) and M31-mass galaxies across their formation histories at $z \leq 1.5$ ($t_{\rm lookback} \leq 9.4$ Gyr), motivated by characterizing the initial conditions of stars for chemical tagging. Gas within $1$ kpc of the disk midplane is vertically homogeneous to $\lesssim 0.008$ dex at all $z \leq 1.5$. We find negative radial gradients (metallicity decreases with galactocentric radius) at all times, which steepen over time from $\approx -0.01$ dex kpc$^{-1}$ at $z = 1$ ($t_{\rm lookback} = 7.8$ Gyr) to $\approx -0.03$ dex kpc$^{-1}$ at $z = 0$, and which broadly agree with observations of the MW, M31, and nearby MW/M31-mass galaxies. Azimuthal variations at fixed radius are typically $0.14$ dex at $z = 1$, reducing to $0.05$ dex at $z = 0$. Thus, over time radial gradients become steeper while azimuthal variations become weaker (more homogeneous). As a result, azimuthal variations were larger than radial variations at $z \gtrsim 0.8$ ($t_{\rm lookback} \gtrsim 6.9$ Gyr). Furthermore, elemental abundances are measurably homogeneous (to $\lesssim 0.05$ dex) across a radial range of $\Delta R \approx 3.5$ kpc at $z \gtrsim 1$ and $\Delta R \approx 1.7$ kpc at $z = 0$. We also measure full distributions of elemental abundances, finding typically negatively skewed normal distributions at $z \gtrsim 1$ that evolve to typically Gaussian distributions by $z = 0$. Our results on gas abundances inform the initial conditions for stars, including the spatial and temporal scales for applying chemical tagging to understand stellar birth in the MW., Comment: 24 pages, 17 figures, Accepted for publication in MNRAS

This chapter serves as an introduction to the main topic of this book, namely to master uncertainty in technical systems. First, the difference of our approach to previous ones is highlighted. We then discuss process chains as an important type of technical systems, in which uncertainty propagates along the chain. Five different approaches to master uncertainty in process chains are presented: uncertainty identification, uncertainty propagation, robust optimisation, sensitivity analysis and model adaption. The influence of the process on uncertainty and methods depends on whether it is dynamic/time-varying and/or active. This brings us to the main strategies for mastering uncertainty: robustness, flexibility and resilience. Finally, three different concrete technical systems that are used to demonstrate our methods are presented.

Mathematical models are commonly used to predict the dynamic behavior of mechanical structures or to synthesize controllers for active systems. Calibrating the model parameters to experimental data is crucial to achieve reliable and adequate model predictions. However, the experimental dynamic behavior is uncertain due to variations in component properties, assembly and mounting. Therefore, uncertainty in the model parameters can be considered in a non-deterministic calibration. In this paper, we compare two approaches for a non-deterministic parameter calibration, which both consider uncertainty in the parameters of a beam-column model. The goal is to improve the model prediction of the axial load-dependent lateral dynamic behavior. The investigation is based on a beam-column system subjected to compressive axial loads used for active buckling control. A representative sample of 30 nominally identical beam-column systems characterizes the variations in the experimental lateral axial load-dependent dynamic behavior. First, in a forward parameter calibration approach, the parameters of the beam-column model are calibrated separately for all 30 investigated beam-column systems using a least squares optimization. The uncertainty in the parameters is obtained by assuming normal distributions of the separately calibrated parameters. Second, in a Bayesian inference parameter calibration approach, the parameters are calibrated using the complete sample of experimental data. Posterior distributions of the parameters characterize the uncertain dynamic behavior of the beam-column model. For both non-deterministic parameter calibration approaches, the predicted uncertainty ranges of the axial load-dependent lateral dynamic behavior are compared to the uncertain experimental behavior and the most accurate results are identified.

This chapter describes the various approaches to analyse, quantify and evaluate uncertainty along the phases of the product life cycle. It is based on the previous chapters that introduce a consistent classification of uncertainty and a holistic approach to master the uncertainty of technical systems in mechanical engineering. Here, the following topics are presented: the identification of uncertainty by modelling technical processes, the detection and handling of data-induced conflicts, the analysis, quantification and evaluation of model uncertainty as well as the representation and visualisation of uncertainty. The different approaches are discussed and demonstrated on exemplary technical systems.

Fossil groups are considered the end product of natural galaxy group evolution in which group members sink towards the centre of the gravitational potential due to dynamical friction, merging into a single, massive, and X-ray bright elliptical. Since gravitational lensing depends on the mass of a foreground object, its mass concentration, and distance to the observer, we can expect lensing effects of such fossil groups to be particularly strong. This paper explores the exceptional system $\mathrm{J}143454.4+522850$. We combine gravitational lensing with stellar population-synthesis to separate the total mass of the lens into stars and dark matter. The enclosed mass profiles are contrasted with state-of-the-art galaxy formation simulations, to conclude that SW05 is likely a fossil group with a high stellar to dark matter mass fraction $0.027\pm0.003$ with respect to expectations from abundance matching $0.012\pm0.004$, indicative of a more efficient conversion of gas into stars in fossil groups., Comment: 8 pages, 9 figures, submitted to MNRAS

Accreting black holes can drive fast and energetic nuclear winds that may be an important feedback mechanism associated with active galactic nuclei (AGN). In this paper, we implement a scheme for capturing feedback from these fast nuclear winds and examine their impact in simulations of isolated disc galaxies. Stellar feedback is modelled using the Feedback In Realistic Environments (fire) physics and produces a realistic multiphase interstellar medium (ISM). We find that AGN winds drive the formation of a low-density, high-temperature central gas cavity that is broadly consistent with analytic model expectations. The effects of AGN feedback on the host galaxy are a strong function of the wind kinetic power and momentum. Low- and moderate-luminosity AGN do not have a significant effect on their host galaxy: the AGN winds inefficiently couple to the ambient ISM and instead a significant fraction of their energy vents in the polar direction. For such massive black holes, accretion near the Eddington limit can have a dramatic impact on the host galaxy ISM: if AGN wind feedback acts for ≳20–30 Myr, the inner ∼1–10 kpc of the ISM is disrupted and the global galaxy star formation rate is significantly reduced. We quantify the properties of the resulting galaxy-scale outflows and find that the radial momentum in the outflow is boosted by a factor of ∼2–3 relative to that initially supplied in the AGN wind for strong feedback scenarios, decreasing below unity for less energetic winds. In contrast to observations, however, the outflows are primarily hot, with very little atomic or molecular gas. We conjecture that merging galaxies and high-redshift galaxies, which have more turbulent and thicker discs and very different nuclear gas geometries, may be even more disrupted by AGN winds than found in our simulations.

The relation between infrared excess (IRX) and UV spectral slope ($\beta_{\rm UV}$) is an empirical probe of dust properties of galaxies. The shape, scatter, and redshift evolution of this relation are not well understood, however, leading to uncertainties in estimating the dust content and star formation rates (SFRs) of galaxies at high redshift. In this study, we explore the nature and properties of the IRX-$\beta_{\rm UV}$ relation with a sample of $z=2-6$ galaxies ($M_*\approx 10^9-10^{12}\,M_\odot$) extracted from high-resolution cosmological simulations (MassiveFIRE) of the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. The galaxies in our sample show an IRX-$\beta_{\rm UV}$ relation that is in good agreement with the observed relation in nearby galaxies. IRX is tightly coupled to the UV optical depth, and is mainly determined by the dust-to-star geometry instead of total dust mass, while $\beta_{\rm UV}$ is set both by stellar properties, UV optical depth, and the dust extinction law. Overall, much of the scatter in the IRX-$\beta_{\rm UV}$ relation of our sample is found to be driven by variations of the intrinsic UV spectral slope. We further assess how the IRX-$\beta_{\rm UV}$ relation depends on viewing direction, dust-to-metal ratio, birth-cloud structures, and the dust extinction law and we present a simple model that encapsulates most of the found dependencies. Consequently, we argue that the reported `deficit' of the infrared/sub-millimetre bright objects at $z>5$ does not necessarily imply a non-standard dust extinction law at those epochs., Comment: 32 pages, 28 figures, 3 tables, submitted to MNRAS (comments are welcomed)

High-redshift Lyman-alpha blobs (LABs) are an enigmatic class of objects that have been the subject of numerous observational and theoretical investigations. It is of particular interest to determine the dominant power sources for the copious luminosity, as direct emission from HII regions, cooling gas, and fluorescence due to the presence of active galactic nuclei (AGN) can all contribute significantly. In this paper, we present the first theoretical model to consider all of these physical processes in an attempt to develop an evolutionary model for the origin of high-z LABs. This is achieved by combining a series of high-resolution cosmological zoom-in simulations with ionization and Lyman-alpha (Lya) radiative transfer models. We find that massive galaxies display a range of Lya luminosities and spatial extents (which strongly depend on the limiting surface brightness used) over the course of their lives, though regularly exhibit luminosities and sizes consistent with observed LABs. The model LABs are typically powered from a combination of recombination in star-forming galaxies, as well as cooling emission from gas associated with accretion. When AGN are included in the model, the fluorescence caused by AGN-driven ionization can be a significant contributor to the total Lya luminosity as well. We propose that the presence of an AGN may be predicted from the Gini coefficient of the blob's surface brightness. Within our modeled mass range, there are no obvious threshold physical properties that predict appearance of LABs, and only weak correlations of the luminosity with the physical properties of the host galaxy. This is because the emergent Lya luminosity from a system is a complex function of the gas temperature, ionization state, and Lya escape fraction., Submitted to ApJ; comments welcome. 23 pages, 21 figures

Model form uncertainty often arises in structural engineering problems when simplifications and assumptions in the mathematical modelling process admit multiple possible models. It is well known that all models incorporate a model error that is captured by a discrepancy due to missing or incomplete physics in the mathematical model. As an example, this discrepancy can be modelled as a function based upon Gaussian processes and its confidence bounds can be seen as a measure of adequacy for the respective model. Assessment of model form uncertainty can be conducted by comparing the confidence bounds of competing discrepancy functions. In this paper, a modular active spring-damper system is considered that was designed to resemble a suspension strut as part of an aircraft landing gear and is excited by dynamic drop tests. In previous research about the suspension strut, different mathematical system models with respect to different linear and non-linear assumptions for damping and stiffness properties to describe the dynamic system behaviour of the suspension strut were compared by means of the confidence intervals of their discrepancy functions. The results indicated that the initial conditions used for exciting the system model were inadequate. The initial conditions themselves constitute a mathematical model, so that model form uncertainty inherent to the initial condition model can effect the system model. The propagation of model form uncertainty within the model will be analysed in this paper by considering two cases: In the first case, the system model is excited with an inadequate initial condition model, while in the second case, experimentally measured initial conditions will be employed that represent the true value except for measurement errors. The comparison of both shows how model form uncertainty propagates through the model chain from the initial condition model to the system model.

We use the FIRE-2 cosmological simulations to study the formation of a quasi-static, virial-temperature gas phase in the circumgalactic medium (CGM) at redshifts 0, Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. Online versions of figures 13 and 15 are available at https://sites.northwestern.edu/jonathanstern/online-figures/

We study the incidence of nuclear activity in a large sample of massive post-starburst galaxies at z~0.7 selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and identify active galactic nuclei based on radio continuum and optical emission lines. Over our mass range of 10^10.6-10^11.5 Msun, the incidence of radio activity is weakly dependent on stellar mass and independent of stellar age, while radio luminosity depends strongly on stellar mass. Optical nuclear activity incidence depends most strongly on the Dn4000 line index, a proxy for stellar age, with an active fraction that is ~ten times higher in the youngest versus oldest post-starburst galaxies. Since a similar trend is seen between age and molecular gas fractions, we argue that, like in local galaxies, the age trend reflects a peak in available fueling rather than feedback from the central black hole on the surrounding galaxy., Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, posted after review by ApJL

The flat star formation (SF) history of the Milky Way (MW) requires gas in the Galactic disc to be replenished, most likely from a reservoir outside the Galaxy. Such a replenishment may be achieved by a form of `positive' feedback, whereby SF feedback creates a Galactic fountain cycle that collects and cools additional gas from the hot halo surrounding the Galaxy. In this paper we present a model of this process for the MW. A section of the Galactic disc is allowed to form stars which subsequently explode as supernovae (SNe) and send gas out into the hot halo. The gas that is sent out is colder than the hot halo gas and, as it mixes, the halo gas is cooled, providing fuel for further SF as the mixture falls back onto the Galactic disc. We find that this process can be sufficient to maintain a roughly-constant cold gas mass in the MW over at least 3 Gyr. Our results further suggest that there is a positive feedback trend whereby increasing SF leads to an increase in the cold gas budget at average SF rates below 0.5 solar masses per year but above which becomes negative, where further increasing the SFR causes the cold gas budget to decrease. We have constructed an analytical model for this that reproduces the data well and could have profound implications for galaxy evolution in feedback-dominated regimes., Comment: 23 pages, 17 figures. Submitted to MNRAS

In structural engineering, different assumptions and simplifications during the mathematical modeling process may lead to a set of competing mathematical models with different complexity and functional relationships. The quantification of the resulting model form uncertainty for competing mathematical models may be used to select the model that predicts the experimental measurements of a system most adequately for given requirements, e.g. highest possible accuracy or low computational costs. In this paper, a review and application of four selected approaches to detect and quantify model form uncertainty using experimental measurements and simulation data are conducted: detection of model form uncertainty by (1) parameter estimation with optimal design of experiments as well as quantification of model form uncertainty by (2) the area validation metric for comparing the cumulative density function of a numerical simulation with measurements, (3) a non-parametric regression approach to describe the model error and (4) a Gaussian process based quantification of model form uncertainty. As an exemplary system, an experimental load-carrying truss structure is considered with its system output being the maximum axial tensions in selected truss members due to static and dynamic loads. In two competing mathematical models, the truss structure is either assembled with rigidly connected beams or pin jointed rods. The proposed approaches (1) to (4) detect and quantify model form uncertainty in the two competing models of the load-carrying truss structure, which are subsequently compared and evaluated in terms of their simulation accuracy. Depending on the model requirements, the adequate truss structure model with quantified model form uncertainty may then be selected for further investigations.

A promising route for revealing the existence of dark matter structures on mass scales smaller than the faintest galaxies is through their effect on strong gravitational lenses. We examine the role of local, lens-proximate clustering in boosting the lensing probability relative to contributions from substructure and unclustered line-of-sight (LOS) halos. Using two cosmological simulations that can resolve halo masses of $M_{\rm halo} \simeq 10^{9}\ M_{\odot}$ (in a simulation box of length $L_{\rm box}{\sim}100\,{\rm Mpc}$) and $10^{7}\ M_{\odot}$ ($L_{\rm box}\sim20\,{\rm Mpc}$), we demonstrate that clustering in the vicinity of the lens host produces a clear enhancement relative to an assumption of unclustered halos that persists to $> 20\,R_{\rm vir}$. This enhancement exceeds estimates that use a two-halo term to account for clustering, particularly within $2-5\,R_{\rm vir}$. We provide an analytic expression for this excess, clustered contribution. We find that local clustering boosts the expected count of $10^9 \ M_\odot$ perturbing halos by ${\sim}35\%$ compared to substructure alone, a result that will significantly enhance expected signals for low-redshift ($z_l \simeq 0.2$) lenses, where substructure contributes substantially compared to LOS halos. We also find that the orientation of the lens with respect to the line of sight (e.g., whether the line of sight passes through the major axis of the lens) can also have a significant effect on the lensing signal, boosting counts by an additional $\sim 50\%$ compared to a random orientations. This could be important if discovered lenses are biased to be oriented along their principal axis., Accepted to MNRAS

We study star formation histories (SFHs) of $\simeq500$ dwarf galaxies (stellar mass $M_\ast = 10^5 - 10^9\,M_\odot$) from FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations. We compare dwarfs around individual Milky Way (MW)-mass galaxies, dwarfs in Local Group (LG)-like environments, and true field (i.e. isolated) dwarf galaxies. We reproduce observed trends wherein higher-mass dwarfs quench later (if at all), regardless of environment. We also identify differences between the environments, both in terms of "satellite vs. central" and "LG vs. individual MWvs. isolated dwarf central." Around the individual MW-mass hosts, we recover the result expected from environmental quenching: central galaxies in the "near field" have more extended SFHs than their satellite counterparts, with the former more closely resemble isolated ("true field") dwarfs (though near-field centrals are still somewhat earlier forming). However, this difference is muted in the LG-like environments, where both near-field centrals and satellites have similar SFHs, which resemble satellites of single MW-mass hosts. This distinction is strongest for $M_\ast = 10^6 - 10^7\,M_\odot$ but exists at other masses. Our results suggest that the paired halo nature of the LG may regulate star formation in dwarf galaxies even beyond the virial radii of the MW and Andromeda. Caution is needed when comparing zoom-in simulations targeting isolated dwarf galaxies against observed dwarf galaxies in the LG., Main text: 11 pages, 8 figures; appendices: 4 pages, 4 figures. Submitted to MNRAS; comments welcome

Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is the second most common type of skin cancer after basal cell carcinoma (BCC). The overall prevalence of BCC is 3 times higher than that of SCC, but this can vary when looking at specific locations such as the hand, where SCC is much more common than BCC. Carcinoma (or epithelioma) cuniculatum is a rare variant of SCC. It was originally described as a verrucous carcinoma of the soles. Exceptionally, it can arise in other parts of the skin. We report a rare case of carcinoma cuniculatum of the right thenar region with bone and lymph node involvement.