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This report presents a demand analysis of primary data collected on 562 households in Abidjan. Findings show that Ivorian consumers purchase more from traditional retailers where source-differentiated foods are sold in simple or primary forms. There is however an emergence of local and international retail brands (modern butcheries, supermarkets) trading in more specialized or processed food products. Consumers are generally sensitive to expenditure variation in their demand for chicken and fish. The expenditure elasticities of chicken and fish were found to be significant and positive. The elasticity of fish was estimated greater than one, indicating fish as a superior good in the households surveyed. The expenditure elasticity of beef was not significant.

• While market access quotas have generated high levels of rents for traders and exporters in Namibia, Botswana, Norway, and offshore entities in the UK, their developmental benefits are diffuse, unclear, and difficult to unpack; • The consolidation of trade between small supply (Namibia, Botswana) and demand markets (Norway) provides some unique advantages for trading parties, given the former’s efficiency and scale disadvantages in international trade, and the latter’s desire to actively manage its food imports; • However, such a strategy is not necessarily replicable or scalable, as it entails both high entry costs for access and high risks from the over-reliance on a limited number of markets and the specter of animal disease incursions.

This paper conducts ex-ante impact assessments for policy interventions to promote amaranth value chains in Tanzania and Kenya. Amaranth is an underdeveloped, drought-resistant, and nutrition-rich crop used for human food, animal fodder, and ornamental purposes. Promoting amaranth value chains is a difficult task, given that amaranth is not a well-established commodity and has limited market outlets in the developing world at present. This paper provides a framework within which conduct scenario analysis of ways to promote amaranth value chains using system dynamics (SD). We constructed an integrated amaranth production and market model to evaluate the impact of producer adoption of improved production technologies (improved seed varieties), and changes in demand for amaranth products, on producer profits and planting behaviour. The results of our model show that the profitably upgrading and commercialising of amaranth value chains require multifaceted and chain-level interventions that improve supply- and demand-side conditions. Interventions that target only the supply side serve to increase amaranth production, but generate minor economic gain for producers.

L'économie de l'élevage en Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre a connu de profondes mutations. La production essentiellement développée dans les zones sahéliennes s'est renforcée dans les zones sud pour profiter des complémentarités qu'offraient les activités cotonnières et céréalières. De plus, les camions utilisés pour transporter le coton sont venus renforcer un commerce transfrontalier de bétail déjà très ancien ayant aux productions des pays sahéliens de trouver des débouchés viables. En effet, pour ne pas retourner à vide, ces camions ont été utilisés pour transporter le bétail sans pour autant éliminer le convoyage à pied qui reste encore aujourd'hui très important. Traditionnellement confiné aux échanges de bovins sur-pieds et convoyés par camions selon un gradient intérieur littoral où le commerce de bétail satisfait une demande spécifique de viande et surtout d'abats telles que les peaux et les queues, le commerce transfrontalier de bétail est actuellement soumis à un questionnement important sur la compétitivité entre différentes options de commercialisation : exportation de bétail et/ou exportation de viandes/abats. En effet, dans la plupart des pays du CILSS, émerge une préférence pour la construction d'abattoirs aux fins d'exporter des carcasses de viandes. Les chantiers sont en cours, lorsqu'ils ne sont pas déjà achevés. C'est pour cette raison que le CILSS à travers le PRAPS a jugé nécessaire d'un côté, de regarder si les conditions sont réunies pour que ces investissements prospèrent, et de l'autre, d'analyser leurs répercussions sur le plan économique, social et même politique au niveau des pays visés par l'exportation de ces carcasses. C'est le travail qui a été confié à l'ILRI à qui le CILSS a demandé de se focaliser le long du corridor de commerce de bétail-viande Burkina Faso-Ghana.

Despite extensive efforts to control the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), it remains endemic in Western Java, Indonesia. To understand the limited effectiveness of HPAI control measures, it is important to map the complex structure of the poultry sector. The governance of the poultry value chain in particular, could play a pivotal role, yet there is limited information on the different chain governance structures and their impacts on HPAI control. This article uses value chain analysis (VCA), focusing on an in-depth assessment of governance structures as well as transaction cost economics and quantitative estimates of the market power of different chain actors, to establish a theoretical framework to examine biosecurity and HPAI control in the Western Java poultry chain. During the research, semi-structured interviews were conducted with key value-chain stakeholders, and the economic performance of identified actors was estimated. Results indicated the co-existence of four different poultry value chains in West Java: the integrator chain, the semi-automated slaughterhouse chain, the controlled slaughter-point chain, and the private slaughter-point chain. The integrator chain was characterized by the highest levels of coordination and a tight, hierarchical governance. In contrast, the other three types of value chains were less coordinated. The market power of the different actors within the four value chains also differed. In more integrated chains, slaughterhouses held considerable market power, while in more informal value chains, market power was in the hands of traders. The economic effects of HPAI and biosecurity measures also varied for the identified actors in the different value chains. Implementation of biosecurity and HPAI control measures was strongly related to the governance structure of the chain, with interactions between different chains and governance structures accentuating the risk of HPAI. Our findings highlight that a proper understanding of the chain governance structure is vital to improve the effectiveness of HPAI control measures, by making the interventions more specific and fit-for-purpose given the incentive structures present in different chains.

Animal diseases are global issues affecting the productivity and financial profitability of affected farms. Johne’s disease is distributed on farms worldwide and is an endemic contagious bacterial infection in ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis. In cattle, the clinical disease manifests itself as chronic enteritis resulting in reduced production, weight loss, and eventually death. Johne’s disease is prevalent in the UK, including Scotland. Direct costs and losses associated with Johne’s disease have been estimated in previous research, confirming an important economic impact of the disease in UK herds. Despite this, the distributional impact of Johne’s disease among milk consumers and producers in Scotland has not been estimated. In this paper, we evaluate the change in society’s economic welfare, namely to dairy producers (i.e. infected and uninfected herds) and milk consumers in Scotland induced by the introduction of Johne’s disease in the national Scottish dairy herd. At the national-level, we conclude that the economic burden falls mainly on producers of infected herds and, to a lesser extent, milk consumers, while producers of uninfected herds benefit from the presence of Johne’s. An infected producer’s loss per cow is approximately two times larger in magnitude than that of an uninfected producer’s gain. Such economic welfare estimates are an important comparison of the relative costs of national herd prevalence and the wider economic welfare implications for both producers and consumers. This is particularly important from a policy, public good, cost sharing, and human health perspective. The economic welfare framework presented in this paper can be applied to other diseases to examine the relative burden of society’s economic welfare of alternative livestock disease scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity analysis evaluates uncertainty in economic welfare given limited data and uncertainty in the national herd prevalence, and other input parameters, associated with Johne’s disease in Scotland. Therefore, until the prevalence of Johne’s is better understood, the full economic cost to Scottish dairy herds remains uncertain but in the meantime the sensitivity analysis evaluates the robustness of economic welfare to such uncertainties.

In Nicaragua, the production of dairy and beef is the most important source of household income for many smallholder producers. However, erratic volumes and quality of milk limit the participation of small- and medium-scale cattle farmers into higher-value dairy value chains. This research uses a system dynamics (SD) approach to analyze the Matiguás dairy value chain in Nicaragua. The paper presents the conceptual framework of the model and highlights the dynamic processes in the value chain, with a focus on improving feeding systems to achieve higher milk productivity and increased income for producers. The model was developed using a participatory group model building (GMB) technique to jointly conceptualize and validate the model with stakeholders.

In Nicaragua, the production of dairy and beef is the most important source of household income for many smallholder producers. However, erratic volumes and quality of milk limit the participation of small- and medium-scale cattle farmers into higher-value dairy value chains. This research uses a system dynamics (SD) approach to analyze the Matiguás dairy value chain in Nicaragua. The paper presents the conceptual framework of the model and highlights the dynamic processes in the value chain, with a focus on improving feeding systems to achieve higher milk productivity and increased income for producers. The model was developed using a participatory group model building (GMB) technique to jointly conceptualize and validate the model with stakeholders.

Goat producers in Inhassoro follow traditional management practices that lead to low supply of low quality goats. This has negative impacts on profitability, and on market access. Traders who buy in the Inhassoro locality buy only small volumes, and buyers from external markets are unaware of potential market supply in Inhassoro. This interaction of production constraints and limited information flows in the value chain was addressed using a system dynamics model for various commercialization scenarios. Simulation results show that improving goat production and animal health practices alone without concomitant improvements in market access have negative impacts on the financial performance of producers and no impact on other value chain actors. However, interventions that both improve market access and animal health have significant positive impacts on the financial performance of all value chain actors. The model’s explicit treatment of herd dynamics contribute significantly to these conclusions, particularly the lagged production response inherent in livestock breeding systems., Proceedings in Food System Dynamics, Proceedings in System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks 2014

Certification programs has been employed in many agricultural products as a means to encourage and communicate compliance with standards associated with various attributes, such as organic, fair-trade, GMO free, and eco- friendly, among others. Such programs further seek to provide added value, through a price premium, to producers and supply chain actors associated with the label. In this paper, we review a number of global labeling and certification programs that could add value for coffee farms in India through the promotion of conservation and environmental protection. We provide results from a survey conducted on a sample of coffee farms in Coorg district, India to assess their awareness and perceptions related towards certified coffee and environmental conservation in general. Survey results illustrate strong positive associations with the environment by coffee planters, particularly among certified and organic producers. However, price premiums for certified and organic coffee are relatively small. While the potential of conservation-oriented certification for coffee in Coorg could be relatively limited outside of a few individual-level niches, branding Coorg more generally as a conservation-oriented region could hold promise, lever- aging and personalizing the uniqueness of the natural offerings from Coorg and tapping into burgeoning associations with place and region in India. This research was funded by the Norwegian Research Council’s NORGLOBAL program, project number #217203 as a joint collaboration between the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) and the Institute for Social and Economic Change (ISEC), Bangalore

Despite estimates that the global butterfly trade generates over US$100 million annually in sales of pupae for exhibitions and deadstock for a range of collector and artisanal uses, almost no research has been conducted that unpacks the dynamics of these value chains. This paper remedies this gap by highlighting the governance structure of the value chain, with important implications on the benefits for chain participants, upgrading strategies, sectoral sustainability, and the potential for new market entrants. Our research on live butterfly chains reveals the fragility of current modes of economic organization that promote overproduction as threatening the long-term viability for the industry as a whole. We propose an alternative governance model based on the use of individually transferrable quotas, or ITQs, as a means of improving the performance of certain butterfly value chains.

Goat producers in Inhassoro follow traditional management practices that lead to low supply of low quality goats. This has negative impacts on profitability, and on market access. Traders who buy in the Inhassoro locality buy only small volumes, and buyers from external markets are unaware of potential market supply in Inhassoro. This interaction of production constraints and limited information flows in the value chain was addressed using a system dynamics model for various commercialization scenarios. Simulation results show that improving goat production and animal health practices alone without concomitant improvements in market access have negative impacts on the financial performance of producers and no impact on other value chain actors. However, interventions that both improve market access and animal health have significant positive impacts on the financial performance of all value chain actors. The model’s explicit treatment of herd dynamics contribute significantly to these conclusions, particularly the lagged production response inherent in livestock breeding systems.

The Indian coffee sector is at an important transition point, increasingly stuck in the middle between quality and value segments of the market. A potential niche for India is in the development of eco- friendly (green) coffees, leveraging the natural environment and biodiversity present in many regions. In this study, we conducted a value chain assessment of the coffee sector in Coorg, a major production area in India, to identify the potential entry points and constraints to a conservation-oriented strategy of upgrading. Our results highlight that coffee value chains in Coorg are fragmented and largely uncoordinated, with innovative upgrading efforts largely individually motivated. This suggests that integrating conservation principles in a broad-based branding strategy could be difficult at the level of the chain without institutional support or the entry of chain champions. On the other hand, integrating conservation as a diversification activity e.g. through the development of butterfly gardens for tourism, could provide a low-cost way of adding value for farmers while promoting good environmental stewardship.

In many parts of the developing world, those with physical or mental handicaps are often considered to be a burden on society, with limited to no remunerative activities available in the workforce. Activities such as butterfly farming, which require precision and attention to detail, are potentially relevant for disadvantaged groups as a source of livelihoods. At the same time, such activities can be integrated with community-led conservation efforts as well. We provide a case study of the development of a butterfly garden at the Swastha Centre for Special Education and Rehabilitation in the Kodagu area of Coorg, a region in the state of Karnataka in India through which conservation-based activities are integrated with special education in a manner than builds skills, improves livelihoods, and serves as an important resource for environmental education. Our case demonstrates a scalable means by which butterflies can be used to educate, improve the environment, and offer livelihoods to the disadvantaged in a country where such opportunities are greatly needed.

The IFAMR is published quarterly by the International Food and Agribusiness Management Assocation. The complete library can be found at www.ifama.org

Smallholder farmers have difficulties entering established value chains with value-added prod-ucts. In this paper, we look at smallholders’ capability to establish and sustainably manage a competitive and economically viable local dairy value chain cooperative in Tanzania. The analysis uses a value chain approach as a framework to identify the possibilities for upgrading and the determinants of competitiveness in value chains in which smallholder farmers can participate. Results highlight the benefits Twawose par-ticipants receive, but caution that a multitude of constraints could impede scaling-up in the future., The IFAMR is published quarterly by the International Food and Agribusiness Management Assocation. The complete library can be found at www.ifama.org

Policy planners face the challenge of formulating suitable agricultural policy by which the required growth in domestic production can be achieved. To attain effective food security policy, one needs reliable empirical knowledge about the degree of responsiveness of factor demand and output supply for commodities. This paper is an attempt in this direction and estimates the factor demand and output supply elasticity for major crops grown in India. These elasticities are used to project the domestic supply of major commodities, viz. rice, wheat, pulse grains, nine major edible oilseeds, and sugarcane under various scenarios with and without acreage expansion and TFP growth. The results of supply projections are compared with the food demand and policy prescription to attain food security is suggested.

Policy planners face the challenge of formulating suitable agricultural policy by which the required growth in domestic production can be achieved. To attain effective food security policy, one needs reliable empirical knowledge about the degree of responsiveness of factor demand and output supply for commodities. This paper is an attempt in this direction and estimates the factor demand and output supply elasticity for major crops grown in India. These elasticities are used to project the domestic supply of major commodities, viz. rice, wheat, pulse grains, nine major edible oilseeds, and sugarcane under various scenarios with and without acreage expansion and TFP growth. The results of supply projections are compared with the food demand and policy prescription to attain food security is suggested.

Rising demands for quality and safety measures in high-value agriculture and livestock markets have necessitated the creation of increasingly complex supply chains to manage the flow of goods and information among channel actors. Public–private partnerships (PPPs) can play a key role in strengthening links within the supply chain, particularly where market failures impede access by the poor. This paper examines the potential of PPPs in promoting smallholder access to such supply chains. A conceptual model is presented that highlights the need to generate chain-level benefits for all channel participants in order for PPPs to be sustainable and to adequately address market failures. A case of both a successful and a failed PPP in livestock markets illustrates the utility of this model.

The analysis of value chains has augmented our knowledge on the complexities, inter-linkages, distributional benefits, and institutional arrangements of production and marketing channels in developing countries. However, the analysis remains relatively qualitative and case-specific, with limited ability to rank or assess the impact of alternative interventions or to analyze sufficiently the complex market dynamics and feedbacks present in livestock systems. This paper offers insights on ways to improve the analytical rigor of the value chain methodology that combines both qualitative and quantitative approaches.

While Ethiopia is Africa’s largest livestock producer, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) barriers and animal diseases have traditionally constrained market access. A system dynamics model examined the feasibility of a proposed SPS certification system under a number of scenarios. Model results indicate that the system may not be viable for beef exports to Middle Eastern markets. However, the binding constraint is high domestic input costs rather than the costs of SPS compliance. Sensitivity analyses reveal that while investments in feed efficiency and animal productivity would enhance Ethiopia’s export competitiveness, the competitive nature of international beef markets may still prevent market access.

The analysis of value chains has augmented our knowledge on the complexities, inter-linkages, distributional benefits, and institutional arrangements of production and marketing channels in developing countries. However, the analysis remains relatively qualitative and case-specific, with limited ability to rank or assess the impact of alternative interventions or to analyze sufficiently the complex market dynamics and feedbacks present in livestock systems. This paper offers insights on ways to improve the analytical rigor of the value chain methodology that combines both qualitative and quantitative approaches.

While Ethiopia is Africa’s largest livestock producer, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) barriers and animal diseases have traditionally constrained market access. A system dynamics model examined the feasibility of a proposed SPS certification system under a number of scenarios. Model results indicate that the system may not be viable for beef exports to Middle Eastern markets. However, the binding constraint is high domestic input costs rather than the costs of SPS compliance. Sensitivity analyses reveal that while investments in feed efficiency and animal productivity would enhance Ethiopia’s export competitiveness, the competitive nature of international beef markets may still prevent market access.

Accurate assessments of the epidemiological and economic impacts of an animal disease require the incorporation of feedbacks between disease spread and production incentives. This paper motivates a new modeling framework that is sensitive to the dynamics of disease, production decisions and incentives, different livestock production systems, and their interaction through the use of an integrated system dynamics framework. Preliminary simulation results are provided to demonstrate proof-of-concept of such an approach, with additional discussion given on extensions and implications of integrated methods.

Many developing countries have moved into the production of non-traditional agricultural products to diversify their exports and increase foreign currency earnings. Accessing developed country markets and urban domestic markets requires meeting the food safety requirements due to several demand and supply side factors. Food retailers have developed protocols relating to pesticide residues, field and packinghouse operations, and traceability. In this changing scenario where food safety requirements are getting increasingly stringent, there are worries regarding the livelihood of the poor since companies that establish production centers in LDCs might exclude them. Poor producers face problems of how to produce safe food, be recognized as producing safe food, identify cost-effective technologies for reducing risk, and be competitive with larger producers with advantage of economies of scale in compliance with food safety requirements. In enabling the smallholders to remain competitive in such a system, new institutional arrangements are required. In particular, public-private partnerships can play a key role in creating farm to fork linkages that can satisfy the market demands for food safety while retaining smallholders in the supply chain. Furthermore, organized producer groups monitoring their own food safety requirements through collective action often become attractive to buyers who are looking for ways to ensure traceability and reduce transaction costs. This paper compares how small producers of different fruit and vegetable products in different countries have coped with increased demands for food safety from their main export markets. These commodities are Kenyan green beans, Mexican cantaloupes, and Indian grapes.

Accurate assessments of the epidemiological and economic impacts of an animal disease require the incorporation of feedbacks between disease spread and production incentives. This paper motivates a new modeling framework that is sensitive to the dynamics of disease, production decisions and incentives, different livestock production systems, and their interaction through the use of an integrated system dynamics framework. Preliminary simulation results are provided to demonstrate proof-of-concept of such an approach, with additional discussion given on extensions and implications of integrated methods.

This paper presents a multi-market model of animal disease control that extends the current literature by accounting for spatial and inter-temporal relations in both epidemiological and economic variables. The model is applied to Foot and Mouth Disease control in Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay, but it is broadly generalizable.

A quarterly, partial-equilibrium vector-autoregression model of the U.S. durum wheat and pasta markets was estimated and simulated under three trade-barrier changes that are of potential relevance for the current round of WTO agricultural negotiations: a rise in the U.S. market-clearing durum wheat quantity from increased imports; a policy- or tariff- reduction-induced decline in U.S. durum wheat price; and a tariff-induced rise in U.S. pasta product prices. In response to each shock, an array of quarterly dynamic response characteristics are examined: response reaction times, direction and pattern of quarterly responses, response durations, response multipliers, and strength of durum/pasta market interrelationships.

A quarterly, partial-equilibrium vector-autoregression model of the U.S. durum wheat and pasta markets was estimated and simulated under three trade-barrier changes that are of potential relevance for the current round of WTO agricultural negotiations: a rise in the U.S. market-clearing durum wheat quantity from increased imports; a policy- or tariff- reduction-induced decline in U.S. durum wheat price; and a tariff-induced rise in U.S. pasta product prices. In response to each shock, an array of quarterly dynamic response characteristics are examined: response reaction times, direction and pattern of quarterly responses, response durations, response multipliers, and strength of durum/pasta market interrelationships.

The paper focuses on the starch industry in Vietnam. That industry is mainly composed of small firms that adapted to rapid change over the past decade. There are also large firms and multinationals in the industry. Based on 1998 field survey data, an analysis of microefficiency and transaction costs suggests that small and medium firms can survive and prosper in the industry. A policy strategy that promotes small and medium firms increases rural incomes, important in a country that is still mainly rural and where the income gap between urban and rural areas is growing.