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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow synoptic scale weather features important for Earth’s hydrological cycle typically transporting water vapor poleward, delivering precipitation important for local climates. Understanding ARs in a warming climate is problematic because the AR response to climate change is tied to how the feature is defined. The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) provides insights into this problem by comparing 16 atmospheric river detection tools (ARDTs) to a common data set consisting of high resolution climate change simulations from a global atmospheric general circulation model. ARDTs mostly show increases in frequency and intensity, but the scale of the response is largely dependent on algorithmic criteria. Across ARDTs, bulk characteristics suggest intensity and spatial footprint are inversely correlated, and most focus regions experience increases in precipitation volume coming from extreme ARs. The spread of the AR precipitation response under climate change is large and dependent on ARDT selection.

Numerous processes affecting coastal ocean dynamics and water properties occur at the air-sea interface as a result of wind blowing on the ocean surface. In Earth system research, it is crucial to appropriately characterize the ocean surface wind (OSW) field because of its significance in many academic and economic activities. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of the most recent OSW datasets based on numerical modeling and remote sensing products in estimating in situ observations along the Atlantic coast of the Iberian Peninsula. The results are three-fold: (1) when high temporal resolutions are not necessary, remote sensing products are an excellent choice because they provide reliable OSW estimates; (2) for analyses that require high temporal resolution, numerical weather models are the best choice because they can statistically reproduce the main trend; (3) fifth generation of European ReAnalysis (ERA5) showed that, despite having a lower spatial resolution than the dynamically downscaled weather research and forecasting simulation, it captures the spatial and temporal dynamics and variability of coastal winds and may be used as forcing of the atmosphere-ocean interface modeling without compromising its accuracy.

The present work analyzes the importance of playing for the child's formation phase, bringing as its main proposal the rescue of traditional games in the daily lives of children in a social institution in the District of Canaan/Trairi/CE. The objective of this work is to analyze the importance of playing for the child's formation phase, elucidating the rescue of traditional games in the daily lives of children in a social institution. This research was constituted from a qualitative approach and was developed as a research of non-participant observation. In this work, traditional games are defended as components that must be rescued in children's daily lives. In the experience with games and popular games, the children at first got to know the toys made for a toy exhibition, discovering the history of each one. At another time, the children were able to access them for their practices, playing with all of them and experiencing this experience of how to play with traditional games and games. When analyzing this experience, children were in fact attracted by the simple, by the aesthetics of traditional games. In this context, the children who participated in the research wanted to enjoy each toy and each game played with them. The observations during the field work lead to the conclusion that the games and popular games constitute very useful strategies to work with values ??and exercises of Physical Education with children of school age. These results also indicate that the rescue of these popular games and games is very important for the integral development of children, as proposed in the LDB. El presente trabajo analiza la importancia del juego para la fase de formación del niño, trayendo como propuesta principal el rescate de los juegos tradicionales en la vida cotidiana de los niños en una institución social en el Distrito de Canaán / Trairi / CE. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la importancia del juego para la fase de formación del niño, dilucidando el rescate de los juegos tradicionales en la vida cotidiana de los niños en una institución social. Esta investigación se constituyó desde un enfoque cualitativo y se desarrolló como una investigación de observación no participante. En este trabajo se defienden los juegos tradicionales como componentes que deben ser rescatados en la vida cotidiana de los niños. En la experiencia con juegos y juegos populares, los niños al principio conocieron los juguetes hechos para una exposición de juguetes, descubriendo la historia de cada uno. En otro momento, los niños pudieron acceder a ellos para sus prácticas, jugando con todos ellos y experimentando esta experiencia de cómo jugar con juegos y juegos tradicionales. Al analizar esta experiencia, los niños se sintieron de hecho atraídos por lo simple, por la estética de los juegos tradicionales. En este contexto, los niños que participaron en la investigación quisieron disfrutar de cada juguete y de cada juego jugado con ellos. Las observaciones durante el trabajo de campo llevan a la conclusión de que los juegos y juegos populares constituyen estrategias muy útiles para trabajar con valores y ejercicios de Educación Física con niños en edad escolar. Estos resultados también indican que el rescate de estos juegos y juegos populares es muy importante para el desarrollo integral de los niños, como se propone en la LDB. O presente trabalho faz uma análise sobre a importância do ato de brincar para a fase de formação da criança, trazendo como proposta principal o resgate das brincadeiras tradicionais no cotidiano de crianças de uma instituição social do Distrito de Canaan/Trairi/CE. O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a importância do brincar para a fase de formação da criança, elucidando o resgate das brincadeiras tradicionais no cotidiano de crianças de uma instituição social. Esta pesquisa constituiu-se a partir da abordagem qualitativa e foi desenvolvida como uma pesquisa da observação não participante. Neste trabalho, faz-se uma defesa dos jogos tradicionais como componentes que devem ser resgatados no cotidiano das crianças. Na vivência com os jogos e com as brincadeiras populares, as crianças em um primeiro momento conheceram os brinquedos confeccionados para uma exposição de brinquedos, descobrindo a história de cada um. Em outro momento, as crianças puderam acessá-los para suas práticas, brincado com todos eles e vivenciando essa experiência de como brincar com jogos e brincadeiras tradicionais. Ao analisar essa vivência, de fato as crianças eram atraídas pelo simples, pela estética dos jogos tradicionais. Nesse contexto, as crianças que participaram da pesquisa quiseram desfrutar de cada brinquedo e de cada brincadeira realizada com eles. As observações durante o trabalho de campo fazem concluir que as brincadeiras e jogos populares se constituem como estratégias muito úteis para se trabalhar valores e exercícios da Educação Física com as crianças em idade escolar. Esses resultados também apontam que o resgate destes jogos e brincadeiras populares é muito importante para o desenvolvimento integral das crianças, assim como se propõe na LDB.

Research Article Evaluating species responses to anthropogenic infrastructures and other habitat changes is often used to assess environmental impacts and to guide conservation actions. However, such studies are generally carried out at the population level, disregarding inter-individual variability. Here, we investigate population-and individual-level responses toward power lines of a territorial raptor, the Bonelli's eagle Aquila fasciata. We used GPS-PTT tracking data of 17 adult eagles to model space use as a function of distance to transmission and distribution lines, while accounting for other habitat features known to affect this species. At population level, eagles increased the intensity of space use in the proximity of power lines (up to 1,000 m), suggesting an attraction effect. At individual level, some eagles shared the general population attraction pattern, while others showed reduced intensity of space use in the proximity of power lines. These differential responses were unrelated to the sex of individuals, but were affected by the characteristics of the power grid, with a tendency for apparent attraction to be associated with individuals occupying home ranges with a denser network of transmission lines and transmission pylons. However, the study could not rule out the operation of other potentially influential factors, such as individual idiosyncrasies, the spatial distribution of prey availability, and the availability of natural perches and nesting sites. Overall, these results suggest that power lines may drive different behaviors and have differential impacts across individuals, with those attracted to the proximity of power lines potentially facing increased risk of mortality through electrocution and collision, and those avoiding power lines being potentially subject to exclusion effects. More generally, our results reinforce the need to understand individual variability when assessing and mitigating impacts of anthropogenic infrastructures info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Moisture transport over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean is an important process governing precipitation distribution and variability over western Europe. To assess its long-term variability, the vertically integrated horizontal water vapor transport (IVT) from a long-term climate simulation spanning the period 850–2100 CE was used. Results show a steady increase in moisture transport toward western Europe since the late-nineteenth century that is projected to expand during the twenty-first century under the RCP8.5 scenario. The projected IVT for 2070–99 significantly exceeds the range given by interannual–interdecadal variability of the last millennium. Changes in IVT are in line with significant increases in tropospheric moisture content, driven by the concurrent rise in surface temperatures associated with the anthropogenic climate trend. On regional scales, recent and projected precipitation changes over the British Isles follow the global positive IVT trend, whereas a robust precipitation decrease over Iberia is identified in the twenty-first century, particularly during autumn. This indicates a possible extension of stable and dry summer conditions and a decoupling between moisture availability and dynamical forcing. The investigation of circulation features reveals a mean poleward shift of moisture corridors and associated atmospheric rivers. In particular, in Iberia, a significant increase in the frequency of dry weather types is observed, accompanied by a decrease in the frequency of wet types. An opposite response is observed over the British Isles. These changes imply a stronger meridional north–south dipole in terms of pressure and precipitation distributions, enhancing the transport toward central Europe rather than to Iberia.

A Noite é acolhedora dos medos e ao mesmo tempo narratária de uma consciência que transita por entre os “porões” da inconsistência humana. Neste artigo o delírio, pensando-o freudianamente, é estruturado, exercendo uma função para o sujeito. O repouso é uma tentativa de cura, um reparo diante do mundo mesmo que a organização, significante, por sua vez, não seja partilhada. Estamos diante de uma metáfora: a consciência humana. No poema de Augusto dos Anjos, este em análise, vemos um morcego, a consciência noturna, quando nos recolhemos na escuridão do quarto, à noite, e que por mais tenebrosa que seja nunca deixará de ser caótica em nossas percepções. Dito isso, o objetivo deste artigo é refletir a consciência humana através da metáfora do morcego, cuja experiência nos permite reavaliar a vida e suas narrativas as quais repousam num “caos organizado”. Mesmo que a realidade fique difusa, entre a luz e a as trevas a reparação dos delírios é uma necessidade a qual não dá para controlar e que se torna urgente à manutenção de seu reparo. Para melhor acolher essa consciência convidou-se Freud (2014), Porcher (2018), Stake (2000) e outros para refletirmos conjuntamente sobre esse devaneio que é coletivo na sua essência no sentido de que todos partilham desse processo de imersão em si mesmo quando dentro do medo a luz das trevas em quatro paredes. Desse modo, nosso trabalho, também, não só analisa a consciência humana a partir da metáfora de O Morcego, poema presente na obra “Eu”, de Augusto dos Anjos como sugere uma reflexão sobre a consciência coletiva e seus delírios, devaneios, pois tudo depende da ótica das ideias as quais deformadas pelas formas não lineares da mente.

The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi-model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA-2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We find that the choice of ARDT is the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in projected AR frequency when compared with model choice. These results imply that new projects investigating future changes in ARs should explicitly consider ARDT uncertainty as a core part of the experimental design.

Author(s): Rutz, JJ; Shields, CA; Lora, JM; Payne, AE; Guan, B; Ullrich, P; O’Brien, T; Leung, LR; Ralph, FM; Wehner, M; Brands, S; Collow, A; Goldenson, N; Gorodetskaya, I; Griffith, H; Kashinath, K; Kawzenuk, B; Krishnan, H; Kurlin, V; Lavers, D; Magnusdottir, G; Mahoney, K; McClenny, E; Muszynski, G; Nguyen, PD; Prabhat, M; Qian, Y; Ramos, AM; Sarangi, C; Sellars, S; Shulgina, T; Tome, R; Waliser, D; Walton, D; Wick, G; Wilson, AM; Viale, M | Abstract: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are now widely known for their association with high-impact weather events and long-term water supply in many regions. Researchers within the scientific community have developed numerous methods to identify and track of ARs—a necessary step for analyses on gridded data sets, and objective attribution of impacts to ARs. These different methods have been developed to answer specific research questions and hence use different criteria (e.g., geometry, threshold values of key variables, and time dependence). Furthermore, these methods are often employed using different reanalysis data sets, time periods, and regions of interest. The goal of the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is to understand and quantify uncertainties in AR science that arise due to differences in these methods. This paper presents results for key AR-related metrics based on 20+ different AR identification and tracking methods applied to Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 reanalysis data from January 1980 through June 2017. We show that AR frequency, duration, and seasonality exhibit a wide range of results, while the meridional distribution of these metrics along selected coastal (but not interior) transects are quite similar across methods. Furthermore, methods are grouped into criteria-based clusters, within which the range of results is reduced. AR case studies and an evaluation of individual method deviation from an all-method mean highlight advantages/disadvantages of certain approaches. For example, methods with less (more) restrictive criteria identify more (less) ARs and AR-related impacts. Finally, this paper concludes with a discussion and recommendations for those conducting AR-related research to consider.

During the day, flying animals exploit the environmental energy landscape by seeking out thermal or orographic uplift, or extracting energy from wind gradients.1-6 However, most of these energy sources are not thought to be available at night because of the lower thermal potential in the nocturnal atmosphere, as well as the difficulty of locating features that generate uplift. Despite this, several bat species have been observed hundreds to thousands of meters above the ground.7-9 Individuals make repeated, energetically costly high-altitude ascents,10-13 and others fly at some of the fastest speeds observed for powered vertebrate flight.14 We hypothesized that bats use orographic uplift to reach high altitudes,9,15-17 and that both this uplift and bat high-altitude ascents would be highly predictable.18 By superimposing detailed three-dimensional GPS tracking of European free-tailed bats (Tadarida teniotis) on high-resolution regional wind data, we show that bats do indeed use the energy of orographic uplift to climb to over 1,600 m, and also that they reach maximum sustained self-powered airspeeds of 135 km h-1. We show that wind and topography can predict areas of the landscape able to support high-altitude ascents, and that bats use these locations to reach high altitudes while reducing airspeeds. Bats then integrate wind conditions to guide high-altitude ascents, deftly exploiting vertical wind energy in the nocturnal landscape. published

Moisture transport and Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) over the Northeastern Atlantic are a very relevant process for the inter-annual variability of precipitation over Western Europe. Based on a long-term transient simulation (850-2100CE) from the CESM model, we have showed that moisture transport towards Western Europe (using the vertically integrated horizontal water vapor transport, IVT) has been increasing significantly since pre-industrial period, in a clear association with the global warming trend. Both current and projected changes (using RCP 8.5) significantly exceed the range given by inter-annual to inter-decadal internal/external variability observed during the last millennium.We have checked the emergence of the temperature, IVT and precipitation signals in Iberia and the UK, showing that while the first two have now clearly emerged from the pre-warming state, precipitation series are still slightly below that threshold. Nevertheless, projections clearly show an increase in rainfall at higher latitudes (i in phase with a warmer and moister atmosphere); and a decrease at lower latitudes decoupled from the overall increase in moisture availability. Additionally we have explored the role played by large-scale circulation and atmospheric dynamics for these contrasting projections. Overall, results show that a poleward migration of moisture corridors and ARs explain a significant fraction of these projected trends. Based on the Clausius–Clapeyron relation we have separated the thermodynamical from dynamical changes. We also show how that a significant increase in subtropical anticyclonic activity over Iberia is responsible for: i) dynamical circulation changes; ii) a shortening of the wet season; iii) to less efficient precipitation regimes in the region. These results highlight the urge to adapt to a drying trend in Mediterranean-type climates, as a consequence of Global Warming. The financial support for this work was possible through the following FCT project: HOLMODRIVE - North Atlantic Atmospheric Patterns influence on Western Iberia Climate: From the Lateglacial to the Present [PTDC/CTA-GEO/29029/2017]

A Lagrangian analysis is applied to identify the main moisture source areas associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall along the west coast of South Africa during the extended austral winter months from 1980 to 2014. The results show that areas that provide the anomalous uptake of moisture can be categorized into four regions: (1) the South Atlantic Ocean between 10°S and 30°S, (2) a clear local maximum in the eastern South Atlantic, (3) a continental source of anomalous uptake to the north of the Western Cape, and (4) over South America at a distance of more than 7000 km from the target region. It emerges that the South American moisture source can be linked to a particular phase of the South American low-level jet, known as a no Chaco jet event (NCJE), which transports moisture to the western and central South Atlantic basin. Concisely, we provide strong evidence that the two margins of the South Atlantic Ocean appear connected by two meteorological structures, with the NCJE playing a key role of transporting moisture from South America to the western and central South Atlantic basin, feeding the AR that transports some of the moisture to the west coast of South Africa.

Whilst the advantages of the application of Land Readjustment (LR) are well known, there are nevertheless numerous countries in which application of LR is difficult or has not been successful. In its analysis of land readjustment constraints, conditions and the international practice, this paper contributes to improving the implementation of an LR system, particularly with respect to the management process. At the international level, management models in seven countries were studied: Australia, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Spain and Sweden. In Portugal, three case studies in the municipalities of Almada, Coimbra and Lisbon were selected, with semi-structured interviews being conducted with the respective managing entities. The management models are distinguished by the type of initiative and leadership processes, relations among stakeholders, managing entities and operating rules. It can be concluded that the role of the public authority as the process facilitator from the very initial st...

We present a detailed evaluation of wind energy density (WED) over Portugal, based on the EURO-CORDEX database of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Most RCMs showed reasonable accuracy in reproducing the observed near-surface wind speed. The climatological patterns of WED displayed large sub-regional heterogeneity, with higher values over coastal regions and steep orography. Subsequently, we investigated the future changes of WED throughout the twenty-first century, considering mid- and end-century periods, and two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). On the yearly average, the multi-model ensemble WED changes were below 10% (15%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). However, the projected WED anomalies displayed strong seasonality, dominated by low positive values in summer (

A climatology of atmospheric rivers (ARs) impinging on the west coast of South Africa (29°–34.5°S) during the austral winter months (April–September) was developed for the period 1979–2014 using an automated detection algorithm and two reanalysis products as input. The two products show relatively good agreement, with 10–15 persistent ARs (lasting 18 h or longer) occurring on average per winter and nearly two-thirds of these systems occurring poleward of 35°S. The relationship between persistent AR activity and winter rainfall is demonstrated using South African Weather Service rainfall data. Most stations positioned in areas of high topography contained the highest percentage of rainfall contributed by persistent ARs, whereas stations downwind, to the east of the major topographic barriers, had the lowest contributions. Extreme rainfall days in the region are also ranked by their magnitude and spatial extent. The results suggest that although persistent ARs are important contributors to heavy rainfall events, they are not necessarily a prerequisite. It is found that around 70% of the top 50 daily winter rainfall extremes in South Africa were in some way linked to ARs (both persistent and nonpersistent). Overall, the findings of this study support similar investigations on ARs in the North Atlantic and North Pacific.

A realistic nested data-assimilating two-way coupled ocean/atmosphere modeling study (highest resolution 2 km) of Madeira Island was conducted for June 2011, when conditions were favorable for atmospheric vortex shedding. The simulation's island lee region exhibited relatively cloud-free conditions, promoting warmer ocean temperatures (∼2°C higher than adjacent waters). The model reasonably reproduced measured fields at 14 meteorological stations, and matched the dimensions and magnitude of the warm sea surface temperature (SST) wake imaged by satellite. The warm SSTs in the wake is shown to imprint onto the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over several diurnal cycles by modulating the ABL depth up to ∼200-500m. The erosion and dissipation of the warm ocean wake overnight was aided by atmospheric drainage flow and offshore advection of cold air (ΔT=2°C) that produced strong upward heat fluxes (∼50 W/m2 sensible and ∼250 W/m2 latent) on an episodic basis. Nevertheless, the warm wake was never entirely eroded at night due to the cumulative effect of the diurnal cycle. The spatial pattern of the diurnal warming varied day-to-day in location and extent. Significant mutual interaction of the oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers was diagnosed via fluxes and temperature cross-sections and reinforced by sensitivity runs. The simulation produces for the first time the interactive nature of the ocean and atmosphere boundary layers in the warm wake region of an island with complex terrain.

The present study assesses the added value of high-resolution maps of precipitable water vapor, computed from synthetic aperture radar interferograms , in short-range atmospheric predictability. A large set of images, in different weather conditions, produced by Sentinel-1A in a very well monitored region near the Appalachian Mountains, are assimilated by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. Results covering more than 2 years of operation indicate a consistent improvement of the water vapor predictability up to a range comparable with the transit time of the air mass in the synthetic aperture radar interferograms footprint, an overall improvement in the forecast of different precipitation events, and better representation of the spatial distribution of precipitation. This result highlights the significant potential for increasing short-range atmospheric predictability from improved high-resolution precipitable water vapor initial data, which can be obtained from new high-resolution all-weather microwave sensors.

This paper studies the problem of the assimilation of precipitable water vapor (PWV), estimated by synthetic aperture radar interferometry, using the Weather Research and Forecast Data Assimilation model 3-D variational data assimilation system. The experiment is designed to assess the impact of the PWV assimilation on the hydrometers and the rainfall predictions during 12 h after the assimilation time. A methodology to obtain calibrated maps of PWV and estimated their precision is also presented. The forecasts are compared with GPS estimates of PWV and with rainfall observations from a meteorological radar. Results show that after data assimilation, there is a correction of the bias in the PWV prediction and an improvement in the prediction of the weak to moderate rainfall up to 9 h after the assimilation time.

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are elongated bands of high water vapor concentration extending to the midlatitudes, which can be associated with intense precipitation and floods over continental areas. We analyze ARs reaching Europe in simulations from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) to quantify possible changes during the current century, with emphasis in five western European prone coastal areas. ARs are represented reasonably well in GCMs for recent climate conditions (1980–2005). Increased vertically integrated horizontal water transport is found for 2074–2099 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) compared to 1980–2005, while the number of ARs is projected to double on average for the same period. These changes are robust between models and are associated with higher air temperatures and thus enhanced atmospheric moisture content, together with higher precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones. This suggests an increased risk of intense precipitation and floods along the Atlantic European Coasts from the Iberian Peninsula to Scandinavia.

An automated atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean basin, allowing the identification of the major ARs affecting western European coasts between 1979 and 2012 over the winter half-year (October to March). The entire western coast of Europe was divided into five domains, namely the Iberian Peninsula (9.75° W, 36–43.75° N), France (4.5° W, 43.75–50° N), UK (4.5° W, 50–59° N), southern Scandinavia and the Netherlands (5.25° E, 50–59° N), and northern Scandinavia (5.25° E, 59–70° N). Following the identification of the main ARs that made landfall in western Europe, a Lagrangian analysis was then applied in order to identify the main areas where the moisture uptake was anomalous and contributed to the ARs reaching each domain. The Lagrangian data set used was obtained from the FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle dispersion) model global simulation from 1979 to 2012 and was forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis on a 1° latitude–longitude grid. The results show that, in general, for all regions considered, the major climatological areas for the anomalous moisture uptake extend along the subtropical North Atlantic, from the Florida Peninsula (northward of 20° N) to each sink region, with the nearest coast to each sink region always appearing as a local maximum. In addition, during AR events the Atlantic subtropical source is reinforced and displaced, with a slight northward movement of the sources found when the sink region is positioned at higher latitudes. In conclusion, the results confirm not only the anomalous advection of moisture linked to ARs from subtropical ocean areas but also the existence of a tropical source, together with midlatitude anomaly sources at some locations closer to AR landfalls.

This study identifies and characterizes the importance of the Atmospheric Rivers in the extreme precipitation episodes that strike the Iberian Peninsula and Portugal during the extended summer months (April to September) between 1950 and 2007. The extreme precipitation days are ranked taking into account a daily gridded precipitation database for the Iberian Peninsula at a 0.2° resolution. The ranking is based on the magnitude of the extreme precipitation days considering not only on the area affected above the 95th climatological percentile but also by the precipitation intensity within the anomalous area. The Atmospheric Rivers detection scheme is used for the North Atlantic Ocean basin that allows the identification of the persistent Atmospheric Rivers that impact the Iberian Peninsula for the extended summer months. It is shown, that there is a relationship between the Atmospheric Rivers and the extreme precipitation days in Portugal especially during the transition months of April, May and September. On the contrary when analysing the entire Iberia Peninsula the impact of ARs is considerably reduced. Moreover, the impacts of the Atmospheric Rivers is considerably higher for the top ranked events in Portugal but decreases when considering less intense extreme precipitation days.

A Lagrangian analysis is applied to identify the main moisture source areas associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall along the west coast of South Africa during the extended austral winter months from 1980 to 2014. The results show that areas that provide the anomalous uptake of moisture can be categorized into four regions: (1) the South Atlantic Ocean between 10°S and 30°S, (2) a clear local maximum in the eastern South Atlantic, (3) a continental source of anomalous uptake to the north of the Western Cape, and (4) over South America at a distance of more than 7000 km from the target region. It emerges that the South American moisture source can be linked to a particular phase of the South American low-level jet, known as a no Chaco jet event (NCJE), which transports moisture to the western and central South Atlantic basin. Concisely, we provide strong evidence that the two margins of the South Atlantic Ocean appear connected by two meteorological structures, with the NCJE playing a key role of transporting moisture from South America to the western and central South Atlantic basin, feeding the AR that transports some of the moisture to the west coast of South Africa.

Author(s): Shields, Christine A; Rutz, Jonathan J; Leung, Lai-Yung; Ralph, F Martin; Wehner, Michael; Kawzenuk, Brian; Lora, Juan M; McClenny, Elizabeth; Osborne, Tashiana; Payne, Ashley E; Ullrich, Paul; Gershunov, Alexander; Goldenson, Naomi; Guan, Bin; Qian, Yun; Ramos, Alexandre M; Sarangi, Chandan; Sellars, Scott; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Kashinath, Karthik; Kurlin, Vitaliy; Mahoney, Kelly; Muszynski, Grzegorz; Pierce, Roger; Subramanian, Aneesh C; Tome, Ricardo; Waliser, Duane; Walton, Daniel; Wick, Gary; Wilson, Anna; Lavers, David; Collow, Allison; Krishnan, Harinarayan; Magnusdottir, Gudrun; Nguyen, Phu

Very high resolution precipitable water vapor maps obtained by the Sentinel-1 A synthetic aperture radar (SAR), using the SAR interferometry (InSAR) technique, are here shown to have a positive impact on the performance of severe weather forecasts. A case study of deep convection which affected the city of Adra, Spain, on 6-7 September 2015, is successfully forecasted by the Weather Research and Forecasting model initialized with InSAR data assimilated by the three-dimensional variational technique, with improved space and time distributions of precipitation, as observed by the local weather radar and rain gauge. This case study is exceptional because it consisted of two severe events 12hr apart, with a timing that allows for the assimilation of both the ascending and descending satellite images, each for the initialization of each event. The same methodology applied to the network of Global Navigation Satellite System observations in Iberia, at the same times, failed to reproduce observed precipitation, although it also improved, in a more modest way, the forecast skill. The impact of precipitable water vapor data is shown to result from a direct increment of convective available potential energy, associated with important adjustments in the low-level wind field, favoring its release in deep convection. It is suggested that InSAR images, complemented by dense Global Navigation Satellite System data, may provide a new source of water vapor data for weather forecasting, since their sampling frequency could reach the subdaily scale by merging different SAR platforms, or when future geosynchronous radar missions become operational.

The summer time cloud diurnal cycle over western Iberia is analysed here using a satellite climate data record of fractional cloud cover based on 9 years of Meteosat Second Generation observations which is distributed by the EUMETSAT's Climate Monitoring Satellite Applications Facility. These observations were complemented with a corresponding mean cloud diurnal cycle using SYNOP reports on six locations over the studied domain. It is shown that the main coastal mountain range separates regions that are characterized by two very different cloud regimes: stratocumulus-topped boundary layer convection dominates the region towards the coast and continental cumulus convection dominates the region to the east of these mountains. To explain the observed variability, a long-term regional climate model [Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF)] simulation over Iberia was used. A comparison of the observations against model output for the common period between observations and simulation shows that although the model generally underestimates cloudiness, it is able to represent the diurnal cycle in a realistic manner. It is shown that the observed cloud diurnal evolution is linked to the thermal circulations generated by the land-sea contrast and orography. The extent to which the cloud deck penetrates inland is closely related to the coastal orography: although smaller hills tend to enhance cloudiness, larger mountains block the progression of the marine boundary layer further inland, as it behaves as a density current. Larger mountains also produce katabatic flow and a rather strong subsidence aloft during the night. The warming due to this subsidence helps the blocking of the cloud deck as it is partially responsible for evaporating clouds, as shown by a potential temperature budget analysis.

An automated atmospheric rivers (ARs) detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean basin that allows the identification and a comprehensive characterization of the major AR events that affected the Iberian Peninsula over the 1948–2012 period. The extreme precipitation days in the Iberian Peninsula and their association (or not) with the occurrence of ARs is analyzed in detail. The extreme precipitation days are ranked by their magnitude and are obtained after considering 1) the area affected and 2) the precipitation intensity. Different rankings are presented for the entire Iberian Peninsula, for Portugal, and for the six largest Iberian river basins (Minho, Duero, Tagus, Guadiana, Guadalquivir, and Ebro) covering the 1950–2008 period. Results show that the association between ARs and extreme precipitation days in the western domains (Portugal, Minho, Tagus, and Duero) is noteworthy, while for the eastern and southern basins (Ebro, Guadiana, and Guadalquivir) the impact of ARs is reduced. In addition, the contribution from ARs toward the extreme precipitation ranking list is not homogenous, playing an overwhelming role for the most extreme precipitation days but decreasing significantly with the less extreme precipitation days. Moreover, and given the narrow nature of the ARs, the location of the ARs over each subdomain is closely related to the occurrence (or not) of extreme precipitation days.

Wind energy is considered a clean energy source, but produces negative impacts regarding avian mortality. The Barao de Sao Joao wind farm in Portugal’s Sagres region is part of an important migratory flyway, crossed by 5000 individuals of 30 soaring bird species every autumn. The wind farm’s licensing was conditioned to the implementation of rigorous mitigation procedures, namely a Radar Assisted Shutdown on Demand (RASOD) protocol to reduce the probability of bird casualties. A security perimeter with observers was aided by a radar system, detecting soaring birds approaching the wind farm. Turbines were to be turned-off when pre-defined criteria of intense migration or presence of threatened species were met. Turbine shutdown was operated by the wind farm staff after a request from the monitoring team (MT), or directly by the MT. Of the soaring birds crossing the wind farm, 55% were recorded at altitudes associated with high collision risk. However, due to RASOD, no soaring birds died from collisions during five consecutive autumns. The average annual shutdown period decreased continuously after the first year (105 h) reaching only 15 h when the MT was given direct access to shut down operations through SCADA (the remote system to monitor and control wind turbines). Shutdown period corresponded only to 0.2–1.2% of the equivalent hours in a year’s wind farm activity. The use of radar, direct access to SCADA and cumulative experience by the MT improved the procedure’s efficiency, allowing better judgments on the application of shutdown orders. Our results indicate that RASOD may be an essential tool in reconciling wind energy production with the conservation of soaring birds.

This discussion focused on the numerical study of a wake episode. The Weather Research and Forecasting model was used in a downscale mode. The current literature focuses the discussion on the adiabatic dynamics of atmospheric wakes. Changes in mountain height and consequently on its relation to the atmospheric inversion layer should explain the shift in wake regimes: from a 'strong-wake' to a 'weak-wake' scenario. Nevertheless, changes in SST variability can also induce similar regime shifts. Increase in evaporation, contributes to increase convection and thus to an uplift of the stratified atmospheric layer, above the critical height, with subsequent internal gravity wave activity., Under review process

This study assesses the influence of the atmospheric wind-wake of the Madeira Island on oceanic-eddy generation. Ocean surface wind fields derived from the QuikSCAT scatterometer were compared to the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) modeled winds at 6 km resolution. The main difference between the two wind products is found southwest of Madeira where QuikSCAT's spatial resolution [0.5°] does not resolve the near-field atmospheric wake dynamics. Nevertheless, high resolution wind extracted from ENVISAT Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) confirms that WRF is able to realistically reproduce the island-induced wind-wake. The Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS) was used to simulate the oceanic effects of the wind-wake. A “no-wind-wake” case was simulated with ROMS using the QuikSCAT wind, whereas the WRF wind was used for an island-induced wind-wake simulation. Oceanic surface kinetic energy and vorticity are found to increase during the summer months concurrently with strong wind-wake episodes resolved by WRF. The downstream propagation of this oceanic vorticity, as a result of the shedding of the leeward eddies, was captured with an eddy tracking algorithm. In the initial stage, the oceanic leeward eddy corridor was delimited by the zonal wind-shear. This study suggests that the wind-wake is the main contributor to the generation and containment of the oceanic eddies in the lee of the Madeira Island.

Tome R., Dias M.P., Chumbinho A.C. & Bloise C. 2011. Influence of perch height and vegetation structure on the foraging behaviour of Little Owls Athene noctua: how to achieve the same success in two distinct habitats. Ardea 99: 17–26.

The European Macaronesia Archipelagos (Azores, Madeira and Canary Islands) are struck frequently by extreme precipitation events. Here we present a comprehensive assessment on the relationship between atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation events in these three Atlantic Archipelagos. The relationship between the daily precipitation from the various weather stations located in the different Macaronesia islands and the occurrence of atmospheric rivers (obtained from four different reanalyses datasets) are analysed. It is shown that the atmospheric rivers&rsquo, influence over extreme precipitation (above the 90th percentile) is higher in the Azores islands when compared to Madeira or Canary Islands. In Azores, for the most extreme precipitation days, the presence of atmospheric rivers is particularly significant (up to 50%), while for Madeira, the importance of the atmospheric rivers is reduced (between 30% and 40%). For the Canary Islands, the occurrence of atmospheric rivers on extreme precipitation is even lower.

An automated atmospheric rivers (ARs) detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean Basin allowing the identification of the major ARs that affected western European coasts between 1979 and 2014 over the winter half-year (October to March). The entire west coast of Europe was divided into five domains, namely, the Iberian Peninsula (9.75° W; 36–43.75° N), France (4.5° W; 43.75–50° N), UK (4.5° W; 50–59° N), southern Scandinavia and the Netherlands (5.25° E; 50–59° N), and northern Scandinavia (5.25° E; 59–70° N). Following the identification of the main ARs that made landfall in western Europe, a Lagrangian analysis was then applied in order to identify the main sources of moisture that reach each domain. The Lagrangian dataset used was obtained from the FLEXPART model global simulation from 1979 to 2012, where the atmosphere was divided into approximately 2.0 million parcels, and it was forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis on a 1° latitude–longitude grid. Results show that, in general, for all regions considered, the major climatological source of moisture extends along the subtropical North Atlantic, from the Florida Peninsula (northward of 20° N), to each sink region, with the nearest coast to each sink region always appearing as a local maximum of evaporation. In addition, during the AR events, the Atlantic subtropical source is reinforced and displaced, with a slight northward movement of the moisture sources is found when the sink region is positioned at higher latitudes. In conclusion, the results confirm the advection of moisture linked to ARs from subtropical ocean areas, but also the existence of a tropical one, and the mid-latitude sources further the analysed longitude along the North Atlantic is located eastward.

Photovoltaic (PV) solar power capacity is growing in several countries, either concentrated in medium/large size solar parks or distributed by the medium and low voltage grid. Solar power forecasting is a key input for supporting grid management, participation in the electricity market and maintenance planning. This paper proposes a new forecasting system that is a hybrid of different models, such as electrical and statistical models, as well as different Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) sources. The time horizon is 48 hours ahead. The proposed model was operationalized and tested in a real PV installation located in North Portugal with 16 kW.

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With the recent global economic and financial crisis, the governments throughout Europe have been closing, concentrating, restructuring or privatizing some public services and, at the same time, the number of services available in electronic platforms (e.g., by Internet or telephone) has been increasing. Nowadays, the need for structural reform and territorial reorganization of many public services is well-known in European countries, as well as in Portugal. The nature and the scope of these reforms depend on several factors related not only to the forces of supply and demand, but also to the social and territorial context. Some countries have already made deeper changes. In September 2013, Netherlands proclaimed the end of the Welfare State (as we know it today in most European countries) and welcomed the beginning of a Participation Society. The public services in Portugal and European countries face many challenges, namely: the redefinition of the concept of public interest; the different roles of central and local government structures/new organizational paradigms; the orientation to the citizen's needs; the incorporation of technology and innovation; the financing systems and their sustainability; and the social and territorial (in)equalities. This communication is the result of PhD research in Geography and Regional Management, started at November 2012 and with a final report due in November 2015. To understand how the Portuguese public services will face the new challenges and trends, I am doing a revision of state of the art about public services in Europe, their agents and dynamics. With this step, I am summarizing the past practices and the actual problems, challenges and trends in the supply and demand of public services. I am also analysing the Portuguese nineteen government programs (between 1974 and 2014), relating them with the administrative reforms and modernizations effectively performed in Portugal. In the final, as a result of the work, I will propose some public polices and strategies about the management and territorialisation of public services.

In this paper, we present the results of an experiment aiming to compare measurements of atmospheric delay by synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry and GPS techniques to estimates by numerical weather prediction. Maps of the differential atmospheric delay are generated by processing a set of interferometric SAR images acquired by the ENVISAT-ASAR mission over the Lisbon region from April to November 2009. GPS measurements of the wet zenith delay are carried out over the same area, covering the time interval between the first and the last SAR acquisition. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to model the atmospheric delay over the study area at about the same time of SAR acquisitions. The analysis of results gives hints to devise mitigation approaches of atmospheric artifacts in SAR interferometry applications.

A method that is used to generate synthetic interferograms of the atmospheric phase delay temporal changes is presented. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model is used to forecast the spatial distribution of the main atmospheric parameters at the acquisition times of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. The method is applied to mitigate atmospheric artifacts in SAR interferograms. The Lisbon Region and the Pico and Faial Islands in the Azores archipelago are chosen as case studies. They are characterized by a different temporal behavior of atmospheric phase delay properties. Results are assessed by means of a statistical analysis.

In this work we present the results of an experiment aiming to measure and model atmospheric delay by means of GPS, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR). Examples of maps of the atmospheric delay over the region of Lisbon are shown.

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores, na Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto, sob a orientação do Prof. Doutor Eurico Manuel Elias Morais Carrapatoso

Tese de Doutoramento, Física, 27 de Novembro de 2013, Universidade dos Açores. Resultados de uma nova geração de modelos climáticos, forçados pelos cenários RCP8.5 e RCP4.5 de concentrações atmosféricas de gases de estufa e aerossol, estabelecidos pelo IPCC para o seu quinto relatório ainda em preparação, são utilizados para caracterizar o clima nas ilhas dos Açores e da Madeira e a sua resposta ao aquecimento global em curso. A metodologia aqui desenvolvida recorre ao novo modelo global EC-Earth, a dados da reanálise ERA-Interim e a resultados de um extenso conjunto de simulações com o modelo de investigação WRF, utilizando, pela primeira vez, uma metodologia dinâmica para a regionalização de campos globais para resoluções suficientemente finas, nas quais se representa explicitamente uma parte do efeito das ilhas e da sua complexidade topográfica. Os resultados aqui analisados sugerem aumentos da temperatura média superiores a 1 ᵒC a meio do século XXI nos Açores e da Madeira, atingindo valores superiores a 2,5 ᵒC no final do século, acompanhados por uma redução da precipitação anual da ordem dos 10% nos Açores mas que poderá atingir os 30% na Madeira. Estas alterações são suficientemente grandes para justificar impactos muito alargados sobre os ecossistemas insulares e sobre a população humana. Os resultados apresentados mostram a vantagem de utilização da metodologia proposta, em especial para uma representação adequada do regime de precipitação em ilhas de topografia complexa, sugerindo mesmo a necessidade de resoluções mais elevadas em trabalhos futuros. ABSTRACT: Results from a new generation of climate models, forced by scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 of greenhouse gases and aerosols atmospheric concentrations, established by the IPCC for its fifth report still in preparation, are used to characterize the climate of the islands Azores and Madeira and its response to the ongoing global warming. The methodology developed here uses the new global model EC-Earth, the data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the results of an extensive set of simulations with the WRF research model, using for the first time, a dynamic approach to the regionalization of global fields for sufficiently fine resolutions, in which it explicitly represents a part of the islands and the effect of topographical complexity. The results reviewed here suggest increases in temperature above 1 ᵒC in the middle of the XXI century in the Azores and Madeira, reaching values higher than 2,5 ᵒC at the end of the century, accompanied by a reduction of the annual rainfall of around 10% in the Azores but which could reach 30% in Madeira. These changes are large enough to justify much broader impacts on island ecosystems and the human population. The results show the advantage of using the proposed methodology, in particular for adequate representation of the precipitation regime in the islands of complex topography, even suggesting the need for higher resolutions in future work.