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Mit dem Königsteiner Schlüssel werden Ausgaben und Aufgaben zwischen den Ländern in Deutschland verteilt. Zur Berechnung des Schlüssels wird der Bevölkerungsanteil zu einem Drittel und die Wirtschaftskraft der Länder zu zwei Dritteln angesetzt. Als Wirtschaftskraft werden die Steuereinnahmen der Länder herangezogen. Jedoch wird zur Berechnung des Königsteiner Schlüssels das Steueraufkommen nach Umverteilung zwischen den Ländern zugrunde gelegt. Da dadurch die Einnahmen nahezu ausgeglichen sind, hat die tatsächliche wirtschaftliche Stärke eines Bundeslandes im Endeffekt für den Königsteiner Schlüssel so gut wie keine Relevanz. Letztendlich verteilt der Königsteiner Schlüssel fast ausschließlich nach Bevölkerungsanteil. Für die vielfältigen Verwendungen des Königsteiner Schlüssels, etwa die Verteilung geflüchteter Menschen oder von Bildungsbeteiligungen des Bundes, ist es äußerst fraglich, ob diese Verteilung zielführend oder politisch gewollt ist. Bei der Verteilung Geflüchteter wird der Schlüssel ohnehin nicht eingehalten. Eine bedarfsgerechte Verteilung macht je nach konkretem Anwendungsfall einen durchdachten und transparenten Verteilmechanismus notwendig. Der Königsteiner Schlüssel kann das nicht leisten., DIW Wochenbericht

Kerala State, India has received global attention in its response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Its response effectively attended to the health pandemic and focussed on economic relief. This paper attempts to understand how gender-responsive Kerala’s policies were. Kerala’s success was due to its historical preparedness and contemporary policy innovations. Over the years, public action was able to ensure that the state and the society were equipped to meet the challenges of a disaster, such as of the pandemic. In the 1990s, when India sought to limit state intervention and promote market-based solutions, public policy in Kerala shifted gears to deepen state intervention by promoting community participation and empowering women. As in other Indian States, the pandemic in Kerala too led to losses of female employment, rise in gender-based violence, a deterioration of women’s mental health and rise in unequal care burdens. But Kerala’s response was distinctive. Several policy interventions had foregrounded women’s needs, which helped ensure gender-sensitivity in Kerala’s pandemic response. Kerala’s economic relief package included cash support, employment, free food provision and zero-interest loans to women. Through helplines, the government reached out and helped women report instances of violence and mental stress. The gender-sensitivity of Kerala’s pandemic response is a rich guide as a demonstration of its possibilities and a reminder of the essential pre-requisites to achieve it.

The literature on social protection does not sufficiently address the impact of traumatic experiences on vulnerability and resilience. Failure to address trauma in highly traumatized and vulnerable populations could negate the effects of social protection programs. This study used a natural experiment (n = 465) to explore the effectiveness of trauma counseling and cash/in-kind transfers on enhancing social economic resilience among members of vulnerable communities in Northern Uganda. The results suggest that trauma counseling is more relevant than cash/in-kind transfers in enhancing social economic resilience; however, no synergetic effect on social economic resilience was found in relation to receiving trauma counseling in conjunction with social protection cash/in-kind assistance. This research adds to the existing literature by providing insights into the underlying factors contributing to vulnerability, such as trauma, as essential elements to be considered in designing and implementing social protection programs in vulnerable communities.

This brief is intended to help policymakers and the public better understand the financial standing of Marin County’s public pension systems, the role of legacy liabilities vs. ongoing benefit accrual in employer pension costs, and the current trajectory of these costs.

Este artículo tiene por objeto analizar el impacto de las transferencias monetarias realizadas por el Estado en las economías locales y rurales, tomando como ejemplo a la región de La Araucanía. Partiendo de la base de lo importante que son estos recursos en la economía local y de las familias, hace una invitación a que el Estado incentive circuitos económicos en base a los principios de la Economía Social y Solidaria, superando el mero asistencialismo que existe en día de hoy.

The authors outline a public pension reform where contribution rates are reduced to zero over a very long horizon and in a Pareto-improving fashion. Die Autoren skizzieren eine Reform der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung, bei der die Beiträge über einen sehr langen Horizont abgeschmolzen werden, ohne dass eine Generation schlechter gestellt wird.

Published in late 2017, the Italian medium-term fiscal plan aims to achieve structural balance by 2020, although concrete, high-quality measures to meet the target are yet to be specified. This paper seeks to contribute to the discussion by (i) assessing spending patterns to identify areas for savings; (ii) evaluating the pension system; (iii) analyzing the scope for revenue rebalancing; and (iv) putting forward a package of spending cuts and tax rebalancing that is growth friendly and inclusive, could have limited near-term output costs, and would achieve a notable reduction in public debt over the medium term. Such a package could help the authorities balance the need to bring down public debt and, thus, reduce vulnerabilities while supporting the economic recovery.

This paper uses the theory of ‘capital as power’ to analyze the struggle over public pensions in the United States. While mainstream commentators claim that public pensions must be ‘reformed’ because they are ‘under funded’, I argue that the metrics used to make this argument are unsound. Instead, the push to privatize public pension systems is driven less by actual funding problems, and more by the desires of elite investors who seek to control pension capital and reap the enormous investment fees associated with it. I propose that the deconstruction of public pensions is part of a larger effort to undermine collective action, so as to remove resistance to dominant capital.

This article examines the funding of public pension plans through 2019. Particular attention is paid to the impact of the Governmental Accounting Standards Board’s Standard No. 68. It addressed (1) discount rates, (2) amortization periods, (3) asset valuation and smoothing, and (4) the actuarial cost method used. The combined effect of these measures has been to increase the amount of public pension underfunding significantly. The actuarial funded ratio of the 126 plans in the Public Plans Database went from 101.9 in 2001 to 71.9 in 2019, on the eve of the COVID-19 recession. It will no doubt continue to worsen in the years ahead. The extent of that likely worsening is also explored.

This brief examines the economic value of defined benefit pensions—which provide secure monthly retirement income based on salary and years of service—for public employees, employers, and residents in Marin County.

This brief examines the economic value of DB pensions—which provide secure monthly retirement income based on salary and years of service—for public employees, employers, and residents in Marin County.

Mestrado Bolonha em Economia In this dissertation we study the impact that pension expenditure has on both poverty and economic growth, using annual panel data from 24 European Union Member States, for years between 2007 and 2018. We do so through Pooled OLS and Fixed Effects econometric estimations. In addition, the 2SLS method is also considered to address a possible endogeneity problem. Our results show that pension expenditure seems not relevant to diminish poverty and suggest that it has no impact on GDP growth. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

This article reflects on the vulnerability of the new digital platform workers regarding their social rights, a highly controversial issue at the doctrinal and jurisprudential levels. Firstly, we analyse the greater job instability and lack of protection experienced by the workers in this type of platforms, and the labour legal framework that derives from these new business models. In this sense, the current doctrine can be grouped into two positions: a first one which defends that these workers should be considered employees and, therefore, remain under the umbrella of the general labour legislation; and a second one, that proposes a legal transformation to include these special workers. Secondly, we analyse the effects derived from the growing development of the platform economy for the Spanish Social Security system. This analysis focuses both on the effects of the protective action of the welfare state for their workers, as well as on its impact on the financing of the public pension system. The article draws a series of final conclusions warning about the possible crash of the fundamental social rights of platform workers., En este artículo se reflexiona sobre la vulnerabilidad de los trabajadores de las nuevas empresas de plataformas digitales respecto a sus derechos sociales, una cuestión muycontrovertida a nivel doctrinal y jurisprudencial.En primer lugar, se analiza la mayor precarización y desprotección del trabajador de este tipo de plataformasy el marco jurídico laboral que se deriva de estos nuevos modelos de negocios.En este sentido, la doctrina actual se agrupa en dos posturas, una primera que defiende que todos estos trabajadores se deben considerar trabajadores por cuenta ajena y deben permanecer bajo el paraguas de la legislación laboral general, y una segunda postura que propone una transformación legal para encajar a estos trabajadores especiales. En segundo lugar, se analizan los efectos que se derivan del desarrollo creciente de la economía de plataformas para el sistema de la Seguridad Social española. El análisis se centra tanto en los efectos de la acción protectora del estado de bienestar para estos trabajadores, como en lo referente a su impacto sobre la financiación de sistema de pensiones público. Se cierra el artículo con una serie de reflexiones finales en torno a la posible quiebra de losderechos sociales fundamentales de los trabajadores de plataformas., Universidad Pablo de Olavide

New scholarship in American politics argues that interest groups should be brought back to the center of the field. We attempt to further that agenda by exploring an aspect of group influence that has been little studied: the role interest groups play on the inside of government as official participants in bureaucratic decision-making. The challenges for research are formidable, but a fuller understanding of group influence in American politics requires that they be taken on. Here we carry out an exploratory analysis that focuses on the bureaucratic boards that govern public pensions. These are governance structures of enormous financial consequence for state governments, public workers, and taxpayers. They also make decisions that are quantitative (and comparable) in nature, and they usually grant official policymaking authority to a key interest group: public employees and their unions. Our analysis suggests that these “interest groups on the inside” do have influence—in ways that weaken effective government. Going forward, scholars should devote greater attention to how insider roles vary across agencies and groups, how groups exercise influence in these ways, how different governance structures shape their policy effects, and what it all means for our understanding of interest groups in American politics.

Faced with the need to adjust public pension systems to meet changing demographic, economic and social conditions, most developed countries have created government reserve funds to ensure macroeconomic sustainability. This paper aims to study the importance that this reserve fund plays in the sustainability of the Spanish public pension system. Using data for the 2000 to 2019 period (20 observations) on the main variables impacting on the system, we calculate probabilities and other indicators of its unsustainability in relation to the reserve fund. Our model accurately reflects certain aspects of the data, and suggests that the probability of unsustainability is inversely associated with the size of the reserve fund, but that this relation is moderated by the heterogeneity of the members of the pension system. Moreover, the probability of unsustainability increases in line with the pension system deficit, the time elapsed until unsustainability is reached is shorter when the Reserve Fund balance falls, and the size of this fund at which the system becomes unsustainable diminishes with the probability of unsustainability.

This report documents the current state of pension provision in Thailand and options for reform that would increase the adequacy and sustainability of the pension system. While the focus here is on income support, the welfare of the elderly depends on many other government policies ranging from labor market policies to aged care and health services. It is also important to assess the pension system in terms of its broader impact on fiscal sustainability and national savings. This analysis can be found in a companion World Bank report that looks at the macroeconomic implications of aging in Thailand. The next section describes the schemes for the formal sector (public and private sector) followed by sections two and three which cover voluntary programs for the informal sector and non-contributory or ‘social’ pensions, respectively. Section four assesses performance based on three criteria, adequacy, sustainability, and coverage. The last section concludes.

This paper examines various aspects of elderly poverty and its measurement. It first discusses some of the most important issues relating to measuring elderly poverty. It then reviews recent trends in elderly poverty, which show considerable heterogeneity in the extent of elderly poverty even among developed countries. Such cross-country differences are due at least partly to differences in the generosity of public old-age pensions and other social safety nets for the elderly. Empirical evidence also corroborates that the expansion of public pension programs has often played a key role in reducing elderly poverty.

The 2010 reform of the status of nurses in the French public hospital sector ended early retirement in exchange for an upgrading of pay scales. We provide an ex ante evaluation of this reform by comparing careers and pensions under the previous and current systems, using the Canopee microsimulation model for local civil servants and public hospital employees. At the individual level, over a nurse’s retired lifetime, the pension increase (27% on average for an annual salary increase of 1.3%) more than offsets the postponement of the retirement age (3.6 years). The outcome for the pension system as a whole depends on the discount assumptions., En 2010, le statut des infirmiers fonctionnaires a été réformé : sortie des emplois de la catégorie active en échange d’une revalorisation des grilles. Nous évaluons cette réforme ex ante en comparant la carrière et la retraite dans l’ancien et dans le nouveau statut avec le modèle de microsimulation Canopée appliqué aux fonctionnaires territoriaux et hospitaliers. Pour l’individu, sur l’ensemble de la retraite, la hausse de pension (en moyenne de 27% pour une hausse annuelle des salaires de 1,3 %) compense largement le report de l’âge de départ (de 3,6 ans). Pour le régime de retraite, le bilan dépend des hypothèses d’actualisation., Dorin Christophe, Marino Anthony, Rabaté Simon, Soulat Laurent. Évaluation de la réforme des infirmiers diplômés d’État sur les dynamiques de carrière et la retraite : une approche par microsimulation. In: Économie & prévision, n°218, 2021. pp. 23-43.

This article reflects on the vulnerability of the new digital platform workers regarding their social rights, a highly controversial issue at the doctrinal and jurisprudential levels. Firstly, we analyse the greater job instability and lack of protection experienced by the workers in this type of platforms, and the labour legal framework that derives from these new business models. In this sense, the current doctrine can be grouped into two positions: a first one which defends that these workers should be considered employees and, therefore, remain under the umbrella of the general labour legislation; and a second one, that proposes a legal transformation to include these special workers. Secondly, we analyse the effects derived from the growing development of the platform economy for the Spanish Social Security system. This analysis focuses both on the effects of the protective action of the welfare state for their workers, as well as on its impact on the financing of the public pension system. The article draws a series of final conclusions warning about the possible crash of the fundamental social rights of platform workers. En este artículo se reflexiona sobre la vulnerabilidad de los trabajadores de las nuevas empresas de plataformas digitales respecto a sus derechos sociales, una cuestión muycontrovertida a nivel doctrinal y jurisprudencial.En primer lugar, se analiza la mayor precarización y desprotección del trabajador de este tipo de plataformasy el marco jurídico laboral que se deriva de estos nuevos modelos de negocios.En este sentido, la doctrina actual se agrupa en dos posturas, una primera que defiende que todos estos trabajadores se deben considerar trabajadores por cuenta ajena y deben permanecer bajo el paraguas de la legislación laboral general, y una segunda postura que propone una transformación legal para encajar a estos trabajadores especiales. En segundo lugar, se analizan los efectos que se derivan del desarrollo creciente de la economía de plataformas para el sistema de la Seguridad Social española. El análisis se centra tanto en los efectos de la acción protectora del estado de bienestar para estos trabajadores, como en lo referente a su impacto sobre la financiación de sistema de pensiones público. Se cierra el artículo con una serie de reflexiones finales en torno a la posible quiebra de losderechos sociales fundamentales de los trabajadores de plataformas. Universidad Pablo de Olavide

This paper examines various aspects of elderly poverty and its measurement. It first discusses some of the most important issues relating to measuring elderly poverty. It then reviews recent trends in elderly poverty, which show considerable heterogeneity in the extent of elderly poverty even among developed countries. Such cross-country differences are due at least partly to differences in the generosity of public old-age pensions and other social safety nets for the elderly. Empirical evidence also corroborates that the expansion of public pension programs has often played a key role in reducing elderly poverty.

The year 1999 marked the beginning of reforms in social insurance in Poland. Changes which were implemented then regarded mainly retirement insurance. Until the reform was introduced, the retirement insurance had operated under a pay-as-you-go system. However, political changes in Poland, as well as adverse demographic trends, led to ineffective functioning of the existing system of financing liabilities arising from retirement insurance. It was necessary to introduce changes that, above all, would allow for maintaining an appropriate level of retirement pension. The following article concentrates on one selected aspect of this insurance - Open Pension Funds (in Polish: Otwarte Fundusze Emerytalne; OFEs) and presents major changes occurring in 2002-2018, their reasons and effects. The analysis is mainly based on data from the Financial Supervision Authority and the Social Insurance Institution. W 1999 r. w Polsce rozpoczęto reformowanie ubezpieczeń społecznych. Zmiany, które wówczas zostały wprowadzone, w bardzo dużym zakresie dotyczyły ubezpieczenia emerytalnego. Do momentu przeprowadzenia reformy ubezpieczenie emerytalne było realizowane w systemie repartycyjnym. Jednak przemiany ustrojowe w Polsce, a także niekorzystne trendy demograficzne spowodowały, że przyjęty dotychczas sposób finansowania świadczeń z tytułu ubezpieczenia emerytalnego przestał sprawnie działać. Konieczne było wprowadzenie zmian, które przede wszystkim pozwoliłyby na utrzymanie odpowiedniej wysokości świadczenia emerytalnego. Artykuł koncentruje się na jednym wybranym aspekcie tego ubezpieczenia - Otwartych Funduszach Emerytalnych, przedstawiając najważniejsze zmiany w latach 2002-2018, ich przyczyny i skutki. Zaprezentowana w artykule analiza została oparta głównie na danych Komisji Nadzoru Finansowego oraz Zakładu Ubezpieczeń Społecznych.

As one of the largest pension funds in Thailand, government pension fund (GPF) is fully aware of its importance as a universal owner and of its role supporting sustainable global values within the context of environmental, social, and governance (ESG). In 2018, GPF publicly announced its commitment to ESG investing and its intention to be the leader in ESG investing and initiatives in Thailand. Since then, GPF has pursued its mission through co-operation with the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the World Bank, and the PRI and through initiating and leading collaborative engagements with local institutional investors and with GPF’s external fund managers, both domestic and international. This document provides a detailed description of the approach, explaining how one analyze and weight ESG factors at the sectoral and at the company or issuer level, and how one incorporates these into asset valuation and pricing. The aim is to make the methodology transparent to concerned stakeholders and to share ideas to institutional investor peers.

This paper examines the impact of raising the State Pension age on women's health. Exploiting a UK pension reform that increased women's State Pension age for up to 6 years since 2010, we show that raising the State Pension age leads to an increase of up to 12 percentage points in the probability of depressive symptoms, alongside an increase in self-reported medically diagnosed depression among women in a lower occupational grade. Our results suggest that these effects are driven by prolonged exposure to high-strain jobs characterised by high demands and low control. Effects are consistent across multiple subcomponents of the General Health Question and Short-Form-12 (SF-12) scores, and robust to alternative empirical specifications, including “placebo” analyses for women who never worked and for men.

Tunisia faces the challenge of improving the quality of its public spending and maintaining fiscal sustainability following a decade of weak economic performance. It is critical for Tunisia to strengthen the quality of infrastructure and services, and to support inclusive growth and private sector job creation. The aim of this public expenditure review (PER) is to identify structural policy options to help Tunisia tackle its economic and social challenges through more effective and equitable public spending. This PER employs a rich set of detailed spending data at the level of the central government and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to analyze how public expenditures in Tunisia can be allocated and spent in a more effective and equitable manner. The report also assembles detailed expenditure, operational, and financial data from SOEs with a focus on the energy, water, roads, and public transport sectors. These data allows to analyze and benchmark Tunisia’s spending trends, effectiveness, and equity, and to identify areas in which spending growth can be contained, where spending gaps exist, where resetting of spending priorities is needed and reallocation of expenditures necessary, and where spending should be more balanced to reduce inequities. The PER is organized in three blocks. The first block - composed of chapters one to four - analyzes the macro-fiscal profile and the two largest spending items, namely wages, energy, and food subsidies, as well as the single largest liability, namely pensions, and the social protection system which is critical for protecting vulnerable households from shocks and from the potential negative effects of certain reforms. The second block - composed of chapters five and six - covers the education and health sectors, the two most important social services for human capital development, which account for the largest share of social spending. The third block - composed of chapters seven to nine -analyzes the issues of public investment efficiency and SOE performance in the electricity, water, roads, and transport sectors.

Die vorliegende Arbeit besteht aus vier Aufsätzen zum Thema Besteuerung, welche sich in drei Themenblöcke unterteilen lassen: Die ersten beiden Aufsätze dieser Arbeit (Maiterth/Chirvi 2015 sowie Chirvi 2019) widmen sich dem deutschen Ehegattensplitting, der dritte Beitrag (Chirvi/Maiterth 2019) behandelt die Besteuerung gesetzlicher Renten in Deutschland und der vierte Aufsatz (Chirvi/Schneider 2019) untersucht Präferenzen bzgl. der Besteuerung von Vermögen in den USA. Eine Aufteilung anhand der behandelten Steuerarten macht die Arbeit noch übersichtlicher: So behandeln die ersten drei Aufsätze jeweils Aspekte der Einkommensteuer, während sich der vierte Beitrag verschiedenen Arten der Vermögensbesteuerung widmet. Es lässt sich ergänzen, dass die Aufsätze zur Einkommensteuer sehr eng mit dem deutschen Steuerrecht verbunden sind. Sie beschäftigen sich mit existierenden Regelungen (§ 26 sowie 32a EStG zum Ehegattensplitting bzw. § 10 sowie 22 EStG zur Rentenbesteuerung) und deren Auswirkungen. Dies gilt insbesondere für die Beiträge Maiterth/Chirvi (2015), in dem ein Forschungs- und Rechtsprechungsüberblick zum Thema Ehegattensplitting geliefert wird, sowie Chirvi/Maiterth (2019), in dem eine potentielle Doppel- oder Minderbesteuerung gesetzlicher Renten durch das AltEinkG untersucht wird. Der Aufsatz Chirvi (2019) untersucht Arbeitsangebotswirkungen des Ehegattensplittings und ist daher etwas weniger eng mit dem deutschen Recht verknüpft, da sich zumindest ähnliche Regelungen auch in anderen Ländern finden. Der Beitrag zur Vermögensbesteuerung, Chirvi/Schneider (2019), untersucht dagegen Präferenzen in Bezug auf – bis auf die Nachlasssteuer („estate tax“) – nicht existierende Vermögensteuern in den USA. Zwei der Aufsätze wurden in der Zeitschrift Steuer und Wirtschaft publiziert, die anderen beiden wurden in der arqus Working-Paper-Reihe veröffentlicht., This dissertation consists of four papers on taxation that can be divided into three different subject areas: The first and the second paper (Maiterth/Chirvi 2015 as well as Chirvi 2019) deal with the ‘income splitting’, i.e. the taxation of married couples in Germany. The third paper (Chirvi/Maiterth 2019) analyzes effects of a reform regarding the transition to downstream taxation of public pensions. Finally, the last paper (Chirvi/Schneider 2019) examines preferences for the taxation of wealth in the United States. While the first three papers analyze (the effects of) specific regulations within the German income tax code (income splitting in Art. 26 and 32a of the German income tax code; the taxation of public pensions in Art. 10 and 22 of German income tax code), the fourth essay is about partially hypothetical types of capital taxation. Maiterth/Chirvi (2015) review the literature on the topic in the areas of public economics, business taxation and tax law and compile arguments for and against the income splitting. As many researchers point out that the income splitting may lead to disincentives for married women to work, Chirvi (2019) empirically analyzes its labor supply effects based on a new approach. Chirvi/Maiterth (2019) evaluate whether the AltEinkG, a reform that lead to a successive transition to downstream taxation, results in under- or double taxation of public pensions in Germany. They develop a measure and subsequently estimate potential under- or double taxation based on official income tax data. Chirvi/Schneider (2019) are interested in preferences regarding capital taxation and conduct a survey-experiment on mTurk to reveal whether preferences depend on the type of tax and/or attributes of assets and personal characteristics. Two of these papers have already been published in the scientific journal Steuer und Wirtschaft, the others can be found in the arqus working-paper series.

This report was prepared at the request in mid-2018 of the Secretaries of Finance for the Pakistan Federal Ministry of Finance, the Sindh Ministry of Finance and Punjab Ministry of Finance. Missions visited Pakistan in January and November 2018, the latter which included a week-long training program in the use of the Pensions Reform Options Simulation Toolkit (PROST). Policy discussions were held about reform options in January 2019 during a workshop on South Asia Civil Service Pension system in Bangkok, Thailand. The initial findings of the PROST projections were discussed with key counterparts in Islamabad, Karachi and Lahore in October, 2019. This report evaluates the current civil service pension scheme and suggests options to consider for pension policy and parameter reforms to improve sustainability, equity and predictability. Actuarial projections have been employed for the civil servant schemes for the Federal civil servants, and for civil servants in Punjab and Sindh. We have not modeled the schemes for other provinces, for Autonomous Authorities or for Uniformed Forces. This report is organized as follows: section two reviews the design, parameters and coverage of the civil servant pension schemes in Pakistan; section three evaluates the key challenges presented in these schemes; section four suggests options for parametric and structural reforms; and section five concludes.

With increasing decentralization of public activities to the municipalities, it has become imperative to deploy an enhanced service provision analysis at the local level. This paper suggests the innovative use of a composite indicator to measure the multidimensional aspects of the local public provision comprising of several commonly administered municipal tasks. We propose a robust conditional version of a directional distance composite indicator with weight restrictions based on the municipal expenditure composition. Specifically, we deal with the presence of “undesirable” municipal service indicators and with the heterogeneity among the municipalities in their political preferences, priority public activities and operating environment characteristics. To illustrate the applicability of the suggested method, we show the construction of the municipal service provision composite indicator for 307 Flemish municipalities over the year 2006–2011. ispartof: European Journal Of Operational Research vol:286 issue:3 pages:1129-1141 status: published

Bei der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung wird ab dem Jahr 2025 die Wiedervereinigung faktisch vollzogen sein. Inzwischen beziehen im Durchschnitt ostdeutsche Männer und stärker noch ostdeutsche Frauen höhere Leistungen aus der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung als ihre westdeutschen Pendants. Bei den anderen Einkommenskomponenten der älteren Bevölkerung, insbesondere den privaten und betrieblichen Renten sowie Vermögenseinkommen, gibt es aber bis heute persistente Unterschiede. Für die verfügbaren Haushaltseinkommen der Älteren bahnt sich bisher keine Einheit zwischen Ostund Westdeutschland an. Um diese zu erreichen, ist es notwendig, dass neben einer Verbesserung der Beschäftigungssituation und der in Ostdeutschland gezahlten Löhne auch die private Altersvorsorge gestärkt wird. Hierzu sind Reformen bei der privaten und betrieblichen Rente notwendig. Lücken bei der Altersvorsorge könnten langfristig durch eine geeignete Kombination aus verpflichtender privater oder betrieblicher Altersvorsorge und finanzieller Unterstützung durch den Staat geschlossen werden. Auch der Vermögensaufbau, beispielsweise durch die Förderung des Wohneigentums in Ostdeutschland, sollte stärker in den Fokus genommen werden., DIW Wochenbericht

Initial public pensions are indexed to the economy-wide average wages, but pensions in progress are indexed to prices, average wages or their combinations - varying across countries and periods. We create a simple overlapping cohorts framework to study the properties of indexing pensions in progress - emphasizing a neglected issue: close wage paths should imply close benefit paths even at real wage shocks. This robustness criterion of an equitable pension system is only satisfied by wage indexing, which in turn requires the adjustment of the accrual rate. To minimize the redistribution from low-earning short-lived citizens to high-earning long-lived ones, progression should be introduced.

Dieses Papier stellt Modellrechnungen zur Entwicklung der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung (GRV) vor. Es beruht vorwiegend auf dem MEA-PENSIM Modell des Munich Center of the Economics of Aging (MEA) und ergänzend auf dem PENPRO-Modell des DIW. Das Modell projiziert aus Annahmen und Setzungen in mehreren Schritten die Entwicklung der Demographie und Beschäftigung sowie der wichtigsten Kenngrößen der GRV. Annahmen zur künftigen Entwicklung von Geburtenrate, Lebenserwartung und Einwanderung richten sich nach den mittleren Annahmen der 14. koordinierten Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung des Statistischen Bundesamtes. Für die Beschäftigungsvorausberechnung folgen wir für die Jahre von 2019 bis 2028 den Annahmen des Rentenversicherungsberichts 2019. Danach nehmen wir an, dass sich die Erwerbsquoten der Männer in Zukunft nicht verändern, die Erwerbsquoten für Frauen jedoch kohortentypisch im Zeitverlauf ansteigen werden. Gegenüber früheren Projektionen und alternativen aktuellen Vorausberechnungen (z.B. Bundesbank 2019) ist das Basisszenario relativ optimistisch. Das Papier stellt jedoch auch die Ergebnisse einer weiten Bandbreite alternativer Annahmen vor. Laut Basisszenario wird der Beitragssatz zur GRV im Jahr 2033 die Grenze von 22% überschreiten. Das Sicherungsniveau wird im Jahr 2039 das Niveau von 43% unterschreiten. Da der Durchschnittslohn im Mittel jedoch stärker ansteigen wird als die demographische Belastung, wird die Kaufkraft der gesetzlichen Rente nicht fallen, sondern auch in Zukunft weiter steigen. Der Anstieg des aktuellen Rentenwertes fällt in den Jahren zwischen 2025 und 2035 zwar deutlich niedriger aus als der Anstieg der Bruttolöhne, die Renten werden jedoch in ihrer Kaufkraft selbst in dieser Zeit weiter ansteigen. Dies gilt auch für fast alle weniger optimistischen Szenarien. Der demographische Wandel führt also nicht zu einem Absinken von Rentenleistungen, sondern nur zu einem langsameren Anstieg. Die Mehrbelastung der GRV durch den demographischen Wandel muss nicht aus der Substanz, sondern kann aus dem Wachstum finanziert werden. This paper presents model calculations for the development of the German statutory pension insurance (GRV). It is mainly based on the MEA-PENSIM model of the Munich Center of the Economics of Aging (MEA) supplemented by the PENPRO model of the DIW. The models project the development of demography and employment as well as the most important parameters of the GRV from assumptions and settings in several steps. The future development of birth rate, life expectancy and immigration are based on the mean assumptions of the 14th coordinated population projection of the Federal Statistical Office. For the employment forecast, we follow the assumptions of the 2019 pension insurance report for the years from 2019 to 2028. We then assume that the employment rates of men will not change in the future, but that employment rates for women will increase over time, as has been typical for recent cohorts. The base scenario is relatively optimistic compared to earlier projections and alternative current forecasts (e.g. Bundesbank 2019). However, the paper also presents the results of a wide range of alternative assumptions. According to the baseline scenario, the contribution rate to the GRV will exceed the 22% limit in 2033. The statutory replacement rate will fall below 43% in 2039. However, since wages tend to rise more strongly than the demographic burden, the purchasing power of a public pension will not decrease. Rather, it will continue to increase also in the future. This also applies to less optimistic scenarios. Demographic change will not lead to a decrease in pension benefits but only to a slower increase.

Die gesetzliche Rente ist für die meisten Menschen im Rentenalter die wichtigste Einkommensquelle. In der sozialpolitischen Diskussion wird häufig das Verhältnis dieser vorleistungsabhängigen Pflichtversicherungsleistung und der vorleistungsunabhängigen, steuerfinanzierten Grundsicherung, die das Existenzminimum absichert, thematisiert. Wie dieser Wochenbericht zeigt, musste eine durchschnittlich verdienende Person Stand 2018 gut 27 Jahre und damit deutlich länger in die Rentenversicherung einzahlen als noch Anfang des Jahrtausends, um später eine Rente aus eigenen Anwartschaften in Höhe der Grundsicherung zu erhalten. Die Simulationsberechnungen legen nahe, dass diese Mindestbeitragszeit bis 2045 insgesamt weiter zunehmen könnte. Grund dafür ist das voraussichtlich sinkende Rentenniveau ab Mitte der 2020er Jahre. Die tatsächliche künftige Entwicklung der Mindestbeitragszeiten hängt stark von den Wohnkosten ab, die für das Niveau der Grundsicherung eine große Rolle spielen. Gerade in Ballungsräumen mit hohen Wohnkosten und starken Wohnkostensteigerungen könnte die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung vor allem unter GeringverdienerInnen in zunehmende Legitimationsschwierigkeiten geraten., DIW Wochenbericht

The provision of a universal old age pension is increasingly recognized as an important instrument for strengthening and extending social protection. A growing number of emerging economies, including East African countries, are introducing universal old age pensions to guarantee at least a basic level of social security. However, such a benefit has not been established in Tanzania Mainland, and a lack of adequate financing is viewed as one of the main constraints. This paper employs a data set from Tanzania-the Household Budget Surveys-and applies a taxbenefit microsimulation model for Tanzania (TAZMOD) to explore possible options for designing and financing a universal old age pension in Tanzania Mainland. The findings of this paper present evidence on reform scenarios and financing options that could be adopted by Tanzania Mainland to establish and sustain a universal old age pension.

We are interested in defining the optimal retirement age by socio-economic class, given a Defined Benefit and a Notional Defined Contribution scheme. We firstly implement a utilitarian framework. Depending on the risk aversion coefficients and individual time preference factors, the results differ significantly. Since this approach is individualistic, with no consensus in the existing literature on what values these parameters should take, it is not suitable to be used by policy makers. Therefore, we provide an alternative based on two accounts. We look for the retirement age allowing the accumulated value, at the last age with survivors, of the pensions received under each system, held in one account, to be close in value to the accumulated amount should the actuarially fair pension be paid, representing the second account. Our approach results in setting a lower retirement age for lower socio-economic classes and a higher retirement age for wealthier individuals.

This study proposes a general aid system based on a mixed financing model in Spain. To that end, it proposes that the different aids available be merged into a single scheme to avoid duplications. The proposed financial model factors in the tax base of the unified aids on the one hand and the contributory part of social insurance on the other. The main conclusion is that the proposal is feasible, so long as a reform of the contributory aid system is undertaken.

Si bien la solidaridad intrafamiliar e intergeneracional es todavía una estrategia utilizada con frecuencia en Colombia, la suficiencia y estabilidad de los ingresos en la vejez deberían ser garantizadas principalmente por el pago de una pensión. Este artículo tiene como propósito primordial hacer una reseña de los principales mecanismos y programas contemplados en la legislación colombiana para atender las necesidades de ingreso de la población adulta mayor y verificar de forma descriptiva si pueden considerarse adecuados y suficientes. Del análisis se deriva que alcanzar una cobertura pensional cuantitativamente suficiente y cualitativamente adecuada para la creciente población adulta mayor representa un gran reto para el país. Al respecto, se contemplan algunas sugerencias de política. Although interfamily and intergeneration solidarity is still a strategy frequently used in Colombian households, adequacy and stability of income for elderly should be guaranteed, mainly through pension payments. This article reviews the main programmes and mechanisms within the Colombian legislation that meet the needs of the aged population’s income, verifying in a descriptive way whether or not those are adequate and sufficient. The challenge for the country would be to reach an appropriate pension coverage for the growing elderly population in quantitative and qualitative terms. Finally, some policy suggestions are presented

Sustainability has become one of the most used terms in public finance assessment. This article treats the issue of sustainability of public finance in terms of social measures adopted in Romania during 2006-2017. In other words, indicators for public finance sustainability will not be calculated in this article, but will be measured the impact of population aging, expenditures with all social and health protection measures on total public debt and government debt. This study has started from the idea that public finance sustainability is, essentially, the ability of a government to sustain the long-term expenditures without increasing public debt. According to the results obtained from the econometric calculations, the increase of the public debt in Romania in the last 12 years is explained in the ratio of 9% by the increase in pension expenditures and 16.8% by the increase of the social security expenditures. In this case, more coherent fiscal, social and economic policy measures are needed in Romania.

We analyse unique Dutch survey data on the public's opinions on what are demanding occupations, on whether it is justified that someone with a demanding occupation can retire earlier, and on the willingness to contribute to an earlier retirement scheme for such occupations through higher taxes. We find that the Dutch think that workers in physically demanding occupations should be able to retire earlier. A one standard deviation increase in the perceived demanding nature of an occupation translates into a twelve months decrease in the reasonable retirement age and a 30 to 40 percentage point increase in the willingness to contribute to an early retirement scheme for that occupation. There is some evidence that respondents whose own job is similar to the occupation they evaluate find this occupation more demanding than other respondents, but respondents are typically also willing to contribute to early retirement of demanding occupations not similar to their own. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The relationship between technology and support for basic income ��� via the intervening causal mechanism of labour market change ��� is an obvious topic to examine in the current era of digitisation. Popular accounts suggest that basic income is practically inevitable as automation renders redundant an increasing proportion of the labour force. Basic income turns a dystopian future of mass unemployment into a paradise of robot-assisted leisure. Recent years have seen significant investments of ���political capital��� in basic income, with ongoing and upcoming experiments in a number of countries, and mainstream parties (e.g. Labour in the UK) conducting consultations into the merits of the policy. Labour market change, including but not limited to the spectre of technological unemployment, appears at least partly responsible for driving increased public and media interest in the idea. In this context, several crucial questions emerge: 1. Is basic income a feasible solution to forthcoming dynamics of labour market change? 2. How do automation and associated labour market risks affect public opinions towards basic income, and the potential for constituencies of support to coalesce around the idea? 3. Is basic income affordable, and how do its distributional implications compare with pre-existing configurations of the welfare state? This report takes a comparative political economy approach to these questions. The political economy approach is concerned with the patterns of winners and losers that basic income might generate, and therefore, the potential emergence of constituencies and coalitions of support and opposition. In this sense, the research aims to contribute to the literature on electoral dynamics, strategic party behaviour and the (determinants of) voter preferences, and more comprehensive integration of the latter within institutional frameworks of analysis (e.g. H��usermann et al., 2013; Beramendi et al., 2015; Manow et al., 2018). In terms of the comparative focus, the IPR���s research suggests that arguments for (different forms of) basic income are likely to vary across specific welfare systems. Following Martinelli and De Wispelaere (2017), the framework has two core conceptual features. Firstly, the idea of basic income as a simple, unified concept is rejected in favour of an understanding of basic income as a multidimensional policy proposal that varies extensively in terms of goals, design features, and implementation trajectories. Secondly, incorporating the comparative literature on the politics of the ���new welfare state���, the role of pre-existing welfare state constellations and trajectories in determining congruence with basic income proposals, and thus structuring (delimiting and potentiating) basic income���s political prospects, is explored. The upshot is that welfare states vary with respect to their functions and goals, the structure of existing welfare provisions (and thus, the scope for adjusting them to generate fiscal space to fund the basic income), and the extent to which they alleviate poverty and inequality. Countries also diverge in relation to existing labour market challenges, and the extent of the threat posed by automation. All of these factors are likely to affect the appropriateness of basic income as a response to automation and labour market change in different welfare state contexts. Ultimately, feasibility depends upon the priority afforded to different goals: the levels of expenditure ��� and the associated tax burdens ��� deemed acceptable to attain given improvements in rates of poverty and inequality. Feasibility also depends upon the level and structure of existing provisions, how effectively they tackle poverty and reduce inequality, and the extent to which their adjustment or elimination translates into household losses for specific groups, such as low-income households, pensioners, and unemployed and disabled people. In the context of ongoing labour market change, and if the labour share of value is subject to long-term decline, it is difficult to see how countries that undergo the most profound and widespread risks will be able to afford a basic income, even as they tend to have the highest levels of support for one. Indeed, the uneven nature of technological change suggests that capacities to raise revenue may be diminished in precisely the countries and regions in which the need to adjust to new forms of labour market dysfunction will be most profound. Generous basic incomes require rather large tax increases and/or cuts to existing expenditure. In either case, powerful constituencies would oppose reforms. This is not to suggest that basic income is not feasible in any of these contexts. A modest, partial basic income is the most realistic option, perhaps as a stepping stone to a more generous full basic income, as most progressive advocates accept (Van Parijs, 2018). Given that basic income is motivated in part by a desire to drastically streamline the benefits system, such schemes may exhibit relatively favourable combined fiscal and distributional outcomes but fall short of achieving some of basic income���s implicit goals and would hardly ���solve��� profound labour market dysfunction or even very drastically reduce poverty and inequality. Despite these inevitable concessions, such schemes would still require politically difficult tax rises. Furthermore, if the issue is adjustment to new labour market conditions rather than a ���post-work future���, it is not clear that basic income ��� or any form of compensatory welfare provision ��� would be the most appropriate solution. Other policies could be more politically viable given the large fiscal burdens that basic income entails. These include policies associated with the ���social investment��� agenda, such as lifelong skills development policies, and policies aimed at generating high quality jobs. More generally, inequality between labour and capital would need to be tackled through a combination of measures aimed at the root causes: strengthening labour market institutions; regulating and taxing corporations more effectively; and democratising ownership of capital more generally. Such efforts are not necessarily opposed to basic income, and indeed would arguably be more effective in combination with the latter. As most progressive advocates accept, basic income is not a ���silver bullet��� (Haagh, 2019). It would still arguably be necessary to address labour market dysfunction and growing inequality in other ways even were a basic income to be established, and to retain much of the apparatus of existing welfare provisions. Advocates should continue to align themselves with broader progressive policy goals and counter narratives that basic income is a replacement for a comprehensive welfare state, strong labour market institutions, capacitating social services, and broader efforts to redistribute income and wealth. If public demand continues to grow, and advocates can coalesce behind modest and realistic proposals, then basic income could well be part of a broader package of measures to address forthcoming dynamics of labour market change., JEL Classifications: H55 (Social Security and Public Pensions); I38 (Government Policy; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs); J24 (Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity); P16 (Political Economy).

The purpose of this work is to analyze the performance of the Ecuadorian pension system, its challenges, and available policy options. Therefore, the study analyzes coverage, financing sufficiency, and sustainability indicators that were created based on information from the Encuesta Nacional de Empleo, Desempleo y Subempleo (National Employment, Unemployment and Underemployment Survey) that was carried out over 2003-16. Likewise, actuarial simulations are made by using the World Bank pension reform options simulation toolkit. The findings show that, although in the latest 13 years there has been coverage extension, resulting from an increase in reported employment and an extension of noncontributory pensions, current coverage is still insufficient. In addition to the challenge posed to coverage extension, in the medium term, population aging would exert some pressure on financial sustainability that, within the current framework, would imply a deficit trend starting in the mid-2030s. However, some public policy areas, parametric as well as structural, have been identified that, together with an extension of noncontributory coverage, may provide a more supportive and sustainable scheme.

Unfunded public pension and Other Post Employment Benefits (OPEB) liabilities impose major threats to local fiscal sustainability, which increases governments' default risk and crowds out funding for essential local services. To close the funding gaps, localities may apply a wide range of fiscal instruments, including increasing taxes, fees, and user charges, issuing debt and bonds, obtaining grants and/or decreasing expenditures. This research compares the US local fiscal choice behavior in the context of the fiscal federalism framework. The goal is to identify the ideal mix of constitutional fiscal rules to preserve local fiscal sustainability. Not only should the rules aim to minimize local adverse fiscal behavior pre-crisis, which may include excessive spending, large accumulations of unfunded liabilities, and over-reliance on external grants, but also allow strong local fiscal adaptive capacity post-crisis. The findings help localities identify any effective and prudent fiscal options available to close their pension funding gaps and contribute to the overall sub-national fiscal institutional reforms. Theoretically, this research introduces a novel analytical framework pertaining to local fiscal sustainability by separating pre-crisis and post-crisis institutional analysis and by consolidating two historically viewed as two competing paradigms, public choice and public finance. I argue that the two approaches are complementary rather than contradictory since public choice theory sets up an institutional prerequisite for normative outcomes to be realized and prevents the occurrence of extreme circumstances. The ideal mix of formal fiscal rules, thus, should induce the balanced budget rule that applies to all budget items, stringent spending and debt limits, and institutionalized local tax authority and stable tax structure, but not tax limits. Tax limits are less effective in constraining government than spending and debt limits due to fiscal gimmicks. Moreover, stringent tax limits could significantly limit local governments' ability to bounce back on their own. This research also found that cities do apply different fiscal strategies to reduce exogenous shocks, given their unique fiscal institutions in place. Furthermore, cities with fewer institutional constraints exhibit a faster speed of adjustment. However, certain institutional variables, such as public union size and tax authority, might not have the same fiscal implications as predicted by the theory. Cities often manage to cut their short-term spending regardless of the size of their public unions. A broad range of tax authority does not imply greater local revenue-generating capacity. Own source revenue autonomy might be a better indicator of local fiscal adaptive capacity. Doctor of Philosophy Unfunded public pension and Other Post Employment Benefits (OPEB) liabilities impose major threats to local fiscal sustainability, which increases governments’ default risk and crowds out funding for essential local services. To close the funding gaps, localities may apply a wide range of fiscal instruments, including increasing taxes, fees, and user charges, issuing debt and bonds, obtaining grants and/or decreasing expenditures. This research compares the US local fiscal choice behavior in the context of the fiscal federalism framework. The goal is to identify the ideal mix of constitutional fiscal rules to preserve local fiscal sustainability. Not only should the rules aim to minimize local adverse fiscal behavior pre-crisis, which may include excessive spending, large accumulations of unfunded liabilities, and over-reliance on external grants, but also allow strong local fiscal adaptive capacity post-crisis. The findings help localities identify any effective and prudent fiscal options available to close their pension funding gaps and contribute to the overall sub-national fiscal institutional reforms. Theoretically, this research introduces a novel analytical framework pertaining to local fiscal sustainability by separating pre-crisis and post-crisis institutional analysis and by consolidating two historically viewed as two competing paradigms, public choice and public finance. I argue that the two approaches are complementary rather than contradictory since public choice theory sets up an institutional prerequisite for normative outcomes to be realized and prevents the occurrence of extreme circumstances. The ideal mix of formal fiscal rules, thus, should induce the balanced budget rule that applies to all budget items, stringent spending and debt limits, and institutionalized local tax authority and stable tax structure, but not tax limits. Tax limits are less effective in constraining government than spending and debt limits due to fiscal gimmicks. Moreover, stringent tax limits could significantly limit local governments’ ability to bounce back on their own. This research also found that cities do apply different fiscal strategies to reduce exogenous shocks, given their unique fiscal institutions in place. Furthermore, cities with fewer institutional constraints exhibit a faster speed of adjustment. However, certain institutional variables, such as public union size and tax authority, might not have the same fiscal implications as predicted by the theory. Cities often manage to cut their short-term spending regardless of the size of their public unions. A broad range of tax authority does not imply greater local revenue-generating capacity. Own source revenue autonomy might be a better indicator of local fiscal adaptive capacity.

Sierra Leone’s macroeconomic performance continued to improve but at a slower pace. Yet there are significant downside risks to the medium-term economic outlook.

Differences in life expectancy between high and low socioeconomic groups are often large and have widened in recent decades. In the United States, the differences may now be as large as ten to fourteen years. These longevity gaps strongly affect the actuarial fairness and progressivity of many public pension systems, raising the question of possible policy reforms to address this issue. This paper reviews the empirical literature on the longevity differences across socioeconomic groups and their impacts on lifetime benefits, considers how these impacts depend on four different pay-as-you-go pension structures (calibrated on the US case), and discusses some policy options.

It is desirable that pension reforms and legislated rules have the backing of thepopulation or at least are accepted by voters. With the objective of achieving “acceptance,”the Swedish Pensions Agency publishes an annual actuarial balance of the solvency of the whole public pension system and distributes to each participant information on his or her individual accumulated notional balance and funded accounts, movements during the year,and estimates of the projected individual future pension amount. This paper describes the Swedish pension experience in communication with pension participants over the last decade, together with the main changes in information delivered to improve individuals’ pension knowledge and help them make more informed, better decisions on work, savings,and retirement.

In 2008, Chile introduced a New Solidarity Pillar (NSP) designed to eliminate the incidence of poverty among elderly adults by setting a floor at around forty percent of the minimum monthly income for the poorest sixty percent of the population. This paper describes the NSP’s main characteristics and the main results achieved during its first seven years of operations: coverage, fiscal cost, poverty reduction, and the system’s role in reducing the significant gender gap in pensions. Its effects on incentives to contribute are discussed, as well as the literature that has attempted to measure these effects. Finally, the main challenges facing the NSP and the implications for other countries under defined contribution pension schemes are summarized.

This paper reviews the design of private pensions alongside a notional defined contribution (NDC) – or public – component. A mix of public and private pensions is the bestway to deliver a strong combination of five core outcomes: coverage, adequacy,sustainability, efficiency, and security. Choices for market structure, benefit type,contributions, and investment strategy can be guided by their impact on these outcomes.The clarity of an NDC formula allows the joint distribution of public and private pensions tobe modeled which can be crucial for optimal investment strategies given, for example, thenegative correlation between real per capita gross domestic product growth and equity markets over long periods. NDC payout formulas have broad applications where annuity markets are weak.

In this study, we determine whether most teachers working in classrooms today can expect to work long enough in the same state to accrue higher benefits under their existing traditional pension, which provides monthly income based on age and service, than they would under a 401(k)-type savings plan of equal cost.

The introduction of the correction index in the mechanism of determining pension benefits in Ro mania in 2013 has led to an inefficient formula which generates differences between the incomes received by pen sioners with the same level of contributions depending of the year of retirement. This paper reveals the mechanism through which these inefficien cies are generated, their consequences and analyzes the formula proposed by a new pension law against this issu e. We conclude that the new formula has the potential to solve this problem, but with a relevant budgetary cost and emphasize the challenge betwe en balancing the costs generated by the change of the formula and the objective of increasing the value of the pension point, while dealing with the sustainability of public finances.

This paper analyses the impact of public pension expenditures and pension funds' assets as well as their benefits on economic volatility. To do so, we use panel data for 35 OECD countries for the period 1980-2018 and apply a set of state-of-the-art econometric estimators. Our results show weak evidence of a negative impact of public pension expenditures as well as weak evidence of a positive impact of pension funds' benefits on volatility. Results were, however, found not to be very robust. In contrast, pension funds' assets do not show any evidence of being associated with economic volatility. Unsystematic fiscal policy, banking crises and political (in)stability, however, are revealed to be somewhat more robust determinants of economic volatility.

Im Bericht werden die Auswirkungen eines zukünftig sinkenden Rentenniveaus auf das Ausmaß der Altersarmut in verschiedenen Szenarien untersucht. Das verfügbare Haushaltseinkommen wird anhand eines Querschnittes von Daten aus dem Jahr 2015 simuliert. Von sonstigen Verhaltensänderungen wird explizit abgesehen. Armut wird dabei anhand zweier üblicher Indikatoren gemessen: der Armutsrisikoquote und der Grundsicherungsquote im Alter. Die Simulation der künftigen Armutsentwicklung bis ins Jahr 2045 zeigt in allen Szenarien einen Anstieg der Armutsrisikoquote im Alter an. Die Entwicklung der Grundsicherungsquote ist hingegen vergleichsweise stärker von den getroffenen Annahmen zur Fortschreibung der Preis- und Unterkunftskostenentwicklung abhängig. Der erwartete Anstieg der Armutsrisikoquote weist auf einen Handlungsbedarf des Gesetzgebers hin. Zur Einkommenssicherung bei einkommensschwachen Haushalten bieten sich vor allem Reformen der kollektiven Alterssicherungssysteme an, da hier gezielt umverteilt werden kann. Das kann innerhalb der gesetzlichen Rente auch in der kurzen Frist erreicht werden. Für die längere Frist wäre zum Beispiel der Ausbau der betrieblichen Altersvorsorge insbesondere für Personen mit unterdurchschnittlichem Einkommen eine Möglichkeit., DIW Wochenbericht

There are a few existing studies on whether domestic migration improves China’s pension system’s fiscal sustainability in the context of rapid urbanization and industrialization. In this paper, we systematically investigate the impact of migration on the solvency of the worker’s old-age insurance for urban employees by constructing actuarial and econometric models. We use panel data from 2002 to 2018, collected from 31 provinces in China. The results show that the association between migration and the solvency of pensions is an inverted-U shape along the urbanization process. Further regional comparison showed that the above-stated inverted-U curve is more pronounced in the central and western regions. We also established that the number of participants and the contribution base are the main contributors to these results. Our conclusions are important for future population policies and public pension systems in China.