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In the version of this article initially published, affiliation 15 was incomplete. It has been amended in the HTML and PDF versions of the article to read: Department of Social and Policy Sciences & Centre for Development Studies, University of Bath, Bath, United Kingdom.

Correction to: Nature Sustainability https://doi-org.proxy.library.uu.nl/10.1038/s41893-022-00909-5, published online 20 June 2022.

This chapter provides an overview of the multi-faceted landscape of methods used to study the steering effects of the Sustainable Development Goals. After a discussion of the political use of science and the complex relations between science and politics, the chapter showcases a selection of different methods that are employed to trace the steering effects of the Sustainable Development Goals. Selecting the most suitable method for a particular research question requires understanding their main characteristics, strengths and weaknesses. The chapter highlights that all methods and tools need to be combined to comprehensively assess the political impact of the goals, the progress towards their achievement, and their overall transformative potential. As data gaps and unequal geographical coverage still hamper a broader understanding of the political impact of the globalgoals, we need to build bridges across language communities, disciplines and methodological camps, which still work very much in isolation.

This chapter provides an overview of the multi-faceted landscape of methods used to study the steering effects of the Sustainable Development Goals. After a discussion of the political use of science and the complex relations between science and politics, the chapter showcases a selection of different methods that are employed to trace the steering effects of the Sustainable Development Goals. Selecting the most suitable method for a particular research question requires understanding their main characteristics, strengths and weaknesses. The chapter highlights that all methods and tools need to be combined to comprehensively assess the political impact of the goals, the progress towards their achievement, and their overall transformative potential. As data gaps and unequal geographical coverage still hamper a broader understanding of the political impact of the globalgoals, we need to build bridges across language communities, disciplines and methodological camps, which still work very much in isolation.

The impacts of climate change are projected to become more intense and frequent. One of the indirect impacts of climate change is food insecurity. Agriculture in Pakistan, measured fourth best in the world, is already experiencing visible adverse impacts of climate change. Among many other food sources, potato crop remains one of the food security crops for developing nations. Potatoes are widely cultivated in Pakistan. To assess the impact of climate change on potato crop in Pakistan, it is imperative to analyze its distribution under future climate change scenarios using Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Maximum Entropy Model is used in this study to predict the spatial distribution of Potato in 2070 using two CMIP5 models for two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). 19 Bioclimatic variables are incorporated along with other contributing variables like soil type, elevation and irrigation. The results indicate slight decrease in the suitable area for potato growth in RCP 4.5 and drastic decrease in suitable area in RCP 8.5 for both models. The performance evaluation of the model is based on AUC. AUC value of 0.85 suggests the fitness of the model and thus, it is applicable to predict the suitable climate for potato production in Pakistan. Sustainable potato cultivation is needed to increase productivity in developing countries while promoting better resource management and optimization.

Klimawandel und Landsysteme Die Landnutzung ist für etwa 23% aller Treibhaus­gasemissionen verantwortlich. Die Landsysteme tragen zum Klimawandel bei, sind aber gleichzeitig sehr anfäl­lig für die Folgen des Klimawandels. Um diesen Zusammenhang besser zu ver­stehen, hat der IPCC einen Sonderbericht zu "Klimawandel und Landsysteme" erstellt. Dieser Sonderbericht ist Teil des sechsten Sachstandsberichts (AR6). Mehr als 100 Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler aus 52 Ländern haben zwei Jahre lang an der Erstellung dieses Sonderberichts gearbeitet. Der Bericht wurde im August 2019 in Genf (Schweiz) von den Regierungen aller Mitglieds­staaten des IPCCs angenommen. Eine Zusammenfassung speziell für Lehrende Jeder Bericht enthält eine Zusammenfassung für Entscheidungsträger (Summa­ry for Policy Makers), die kompakt und einfach zu lesen und zu verstehen ist. Da diese nicht speziell an die Bedürfnisse von Lehrenden angepasst ist, hat das Office for Climate Education (OCE) die vorliegende Zusammenfassung für Lehrerinnen und Lehrer verfasst. Sie enthält u. a. eine Reihe von Aktivitäten und Übungen, die im Schulunterricht umgesetzt werden können.

In 2015, the United Nations agreed on 17 Sustainable Development Goals as the central normative framework for sustainable development worldwide. The effectiveness of governing by such broad global goals, however, remains uncertain, and we lack comprehensive meta-studies that assess the political impact of the goals across countries and globally. We present here condensed evidence from an analysis of over 3,000 scientific studies on the Sustainable Development Goals published between 2016 and April 2021. Our findings suggests that the goals have had some political impact on institutions and policies, from local to global governance. This impact has been largely discursive, affecting the way actors understand and communicate about sustainable development. More profound normative and institutional impact, from legislative action to changing resource allocation, remains rare. We conclude that the scientific evidence suggests only limited transformative political impact of the Sustainable Development Goals thus far.

A pervasive trend in economic development is the shift from agricultural to manufacturing and finally to service economies. Because the type of employment associated with each sector influences natural resource use this global trend may manifest itself in predictable land use transitions. We relate these to changes in urban, agricultural, and natural lands. We find that the economic transition is common in most counties and across counties. Agricultural land expands to natural areas but is eventually replaced by urban. Relating sectors to land cover, we see a strong relationship between increases in service employment and the growth of urban areas. However, we find that both large agricultural areas and large natural areas also occur with high service employment. Finally, we test if the 100th Meridian is associated with predictable relationships between land cover and economic sectors and find strong results that suggest different development patterns in the East and West., Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables

Climate change affects the functioning of all the components of food systems, often in ways that exacerbate existing predicaments and inequalities between regions of the world and groups in society. At the same time, food systems are a major cause for climate change, accounting for a third of all greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, food systems can and should play a much bigger role in climate policies. This policy brief highlights nine actions points for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the food systems. The policy brief shows that numerous practices, technologies, knowledge and social capital already exist for climate action in the food systems, with multiple synergies with other important goals such as the conservation of biodiversity, safeguarding of ecosystem services, sustainable land management and reducing social and gender inequalities. Many of these solutions are presently being applied at local scales around the world, even if not at sufficient levels. Hence, the major effort for unleashing their potential would involve overcoming various technical, political- economic and structural barriers for their much wider application. Some other solutions require research and development investments now but focus on helping us meet the longer-term challenges of climate change on food systems in the second half of this century when most existing food production practices will face unprecedented challenges. In the short term, these pro- poor policy changes and support systems can create a range of positive changes well beyond food systems without delay. In the long-term, investments in research will help ensure food security and ecosystem integrity for coming generations.

This file consists of the processed data of the paper Pradhan et al. 2021 published in the Earth's Future (https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF001996). We processed impact scores and mechanisms provided by experts during online survey, workshops, and review and validation processes. This processed data, i.e., impact scores and mechanisms, are used for identifying key impeding factors and transformation opportunities. The processed data used in the study are available here and at the Supporting Information.

Climate change affects the functioning of all the components of food systems, often in ways that exacerbate existing predicaments and inequalities between regions of the world and groups in society. At the same time, food systems are a major cause for climate change, accounting for a third of all greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, food systems can and should play a much bigger role in climate policies. This policy brief highlights nine actions points for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the food systems. The policy brief shows that numerous practices, technologies, knowledge and social capital already exist for climate action in the food systems, with multiple synergies with other important goals such as the conservation of biodiversity, safeguarding of ecosystem services, sustainable land management and reducing social and gender inequalities. Many of these solutions are presently being applied at local scales around the world, even if not at sufficient levels. Hence, the major effort for unleashing their potential would involve overcoming various technical, politicaleconomic and structural barriers for their much wider application. Some other solutions require research and development investments now but focus on helping us meet the longer-term challenges of climate change on food systems in the second half of this century when most existing food production practices will face unprecedented challenges. In the short term, these propoor policy changes and support systems can create a range of positive changes well beyond food systems without delay. In the long-term, investments in research will help ensure food security and ecosystem integrity for coming generations., The authors thank Dr. Timothy Crews (The Land Institute, Salina, USA), and Prof. Dr. Joachim von Braun (Chair, UNFSS Scientific Group) for comments on the earlier versions of the brief.

To fulfill the 2030 Agenda, the complexity of sustainable development goal (SDG) interactions needs to be disentangled. However, this understanding is currently limited. We conduct a cross-sectional correlational analysis for 2016 to understand SDG interactions under the entire development spectrum. We apply several correlation methods to classify the interaction as synergy or trade-off and characterize them according to their monotony and linearity. Simultaneously, we analyze SDG interactions considering population, location, income, and regional groups. Our findings highlight that synergies always outweigh trade-offs and linear outweigh non-linear interactions. SDG 1, 5, and 6 are associated with linear synergies, SDG 3, and 7 with non-linear synergies. SDG interactions vary according to a country's income and region along with the gender, age, and location of its population. In summary, to achieve the 2030 Agenda the detected interactions and inequalities across countries need be tracked and leveraged to "leave no one behind."

Most South Asian countries have challenges in ensuring water, energy, and food (WEF) security, which are often interacting positively or negatively. To address these challenges, the nexus approach provides a framework to identify the interactions of the WEF sectors as an integrated system. However, most nexus studies only qualitatively discuss the interactions between these sectors. This study conducts a systematic analysis of the WEF security nexus in South Asia by using open data sources at the country scale. We analyze interactions between the WEF sectors statistically, defining positive and negative correlations between the WEF security indicators as synergies and trade-offs, respectively. By creating networks of the synergies and trade-offs, we further identify most positively and negatively influencing indicators in the WEF security nexus. We observe a larger share of trade-offs than synergies within the water and energy sectors and a larger share of synergies than trade-offs among the WEF sectors for South Asia. However, these observations vary across the South Asian countries. Our analysis highlights that strategies on promoting sustainable energy and discouraging fossil fuel use could have overall positive effects on the WEF security nexus in the countries. This study provides evidence for considering the WEF security nexus as an integrated system rather than just a combination of three different sectors or securities.

Colombia's agriculture, forestry and other land use sector accounts for nearly half of its total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The importance of smallholder deforestation is comparatively high in relation to its regional counterparts, and livestock agriculture represents the largest driver of primary forest depletion. Silvopastoral systems (SPSs) are presented as agroecological solutions that synergistically enhance livestock productivity, improve local farmers’ livelihoods and hold the potential to reduce pressure on forest conversion. The department of Caquetá represents Colombia’s most important deforestation hotspot. Targeting smallholder livestock farms through survey data, in this work we investigate the GHG mitigation potential of implementing SPSs for smallholder farms in this region. Specifically, we assess whether the carbon sequestration taking place in the soil and biomass of SPSs is sufficient to offset the per-hectare increase in livestock GHG emissions resulting from higher stocking rates. To address these questions we use data on livestock population characteristics and historic land cover changes reported from a survey covering 158 farms and model the carbon sequestration occurring in three different scenarios of progressively-increased SPS complexity using the CO2 fix model. We find that, even with moderate tree planting densities, the implementation of SPSs can reduce GHG emissions by 2.6 Mg CO2e ha−1 yr−1 in relation to current practices, while increasing agriculture productivity and contributing to the restoration of severely degraded landscapes. Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und nukleare Sicherheithttps://doi.org/10.13039/501100006549

Using a newly developed model approach and combining it with remote sensing, population, and climate data, first insights are provided into how local diets, urbanisation, and climate change relates to local urban food self-sufficiency. In plain terms, by utilizing the global peri-urban (PU) food production potential approximately lbn urban residents (30% of global urban population) can be locally nourished, whereby further urbanisation is by far the largest pressure factor on PU agriculture, followed by a change of diets, and climate change. A simple global food transport model which optimizes transport and neglects differences in local emission intensities indicates that CO2 emissions related to food transport can be reduced by a factor of 10.

Global food production needs to be increased by 60-110% between 2005 and 2050 to meet growing food and feed demand. Intensification and/or expansion of agriculture are the two main options available to meet the growing crop demands. Land conversion to expand cultivated land increases GHG emissions and impacts biodiversity and ecosystem services. Closing yield gaps to attain potential yields may be a viable option to increase the global crop production. Traditional methods of agricultural intensification often have negative externalities. Therefore, there is a need to explore location-specific methods of sustainable agricultural intensification. We identified regions where the achievement of potential crop calorie production on currently cultivated land will meet the present and future food demand based on scenario analyses considering population growth and changes in dietary habits. By closing yield gaps in the current irrigated and rain-fed cultivated land, about 24% and 80% more crop calories can respectively be produced compared to 2000. Most countries will reach food self-sufficiency or improve their current food self-sufficiency levels if potential crop production levels are achieved. As a novel approach, we defined specific input and agricultural management strategies required to achieve the potential production by overcoming biophysical and socioeconomic constraints causing yield gaps. The management strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, advanced soil management, land improvement, management strategies coping with weather induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. Finally, we estimated the required fertilizers (N, P2O5, and K2O) to attain the potential yields. Globally, N-fertilizer application needs to increase by 45-73%, P2O5-fertilizer by 22-46%, and K2O-fertilizer by 2-3 times compared to the year 2010 to attain potential crop production. The sustainability of such agricultural intensification largely depends on the way management strategies for closing yield gaps are chosen and implemented.

Sustainable development goals (SDGs) have set the 2030 agenda to transform our world by tackling multiple challenges humankind is facing to ensure well-being, economic prosperity, and environmental protection. In contrast to conventional development agendas focusing on a restricted set of dimensions, the SDGs provide a holistic and multidimensional view on development. Hence, interactions among the SDGs may cause diverging results. To analyze the SDG interactions we systematize the identification of synergies and trade-offs using official SDG indicator data for 227 countries. A significant positive correlation between a pair of SDG indicators is classified as a synergy while a significant negative correlation is classified as a trade-off. We rank synergies and trade-offs between SDGs pairs on global and country scales in order to identify the most frequent SDG interactions. For a given SDG, positive correlations between indicator pairs were found to outweigh the negative ones in most countries. Among SDGs the positive and negative correlations between indicator pairs allowed for the identification of particular global patterns. SDG 1 (No poverty) has synergetic relationship with most of the other goals, whereas SDG 12 (Responsible consumption and production) is the goal most commonly associated with trade-offs. The attainment of the SDG agenda will greatly depend on whether the identified synergies among the goals can be leveraged. In addition, the highlighted trade-offs, which constitute obstacles in achieving the SDGs, need to be negotiated and made structurally nonobstructive by deeper changes in the current strategies.

Anthropogenic activities have transformed the Earth's environment, not only on local level, but on the planetary-scale causing global change. Besides industrialization, agriculture is a major driver of global change. This change in turn impairs the agriculture sector, reducing crop yields namely due to soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change. However, this is a more complex issue than it appears. Crop yields can be increased by use of agrochemicals and fertilizers which are mainly produced by fossil energy. This is important to meet the increasing food demand driven by global demographic change, which is further accelerated by changes in regional lifestyles. In this dissertation, we attempt to address this complex problem exploring agricultural potential globally but on a local scale. For this, we considered the influence of lifestyle changes (dietary patterns) as well as technological progress and their effects on climate change, mainly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Furthermore, we examined options for optimizing crop yields in the current cultivated land with the current cropping patterns by closing yield gaps. Using this, we investigated in a five-minute resolution the extent to which food demand can be met locally, and/or by regional and/or global trade. Globally, food consumption habits are shifting towards calorie rich diets. Due to dietary shifts combined with population growth, the global food demand is expected to increase by 60-110% between 2005 and 2050. Hence, one of the challenges to global sustainability is to meet the growing food demand, while at the same time, reducing agricultural inputs and environmental consequences. In order to address the above problem, we used several freely available datasets and applied multiple interconnected analytical approaches that include artificial neural network, scenario analysis, data aggregation and harmonization, downscaling algorithm, and cross-scale analysis. Globally, we identified sixteen dietary patterns between 1961 and 2007 with food intakes ranging from 1,870 to 3,400 kcal/cap/day. These dietary patterns also reflected changing dietary habits to meat rich diets worldwide. Due to the large share of animal products, very high calorie diets that are common in the developed world, exhibit high total per capita emissions of 3.7-6.1 kg CO2eq./day. This is higher than total per capita emissions of 1.4-4.5 kg CO2eq./day associated with low and moderate calorie diets that are common in developing countries. Currently, 40% of the global crop calories are fed to livestock and the feed calorie use is four times the produced animal calories. However, these values vary from less than 1 kcal to greater 10 kcal around the world. On the local and national scale, we found that the local and national food production could meet demand of 1.9 and 4.4 billion people in 2000, respectively. However, 1 billion people from Asia and Africa require intercontinental agricultural trade to meet their food demand. Nevertheless, these regions can become food self-sufficient by closing yield gaps that require location specific inputs and agricultural management strategies. Such strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, soil and land improvement, management targeted on mitigating climate induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. However, closing yield gaps in particular requires global N-fertilizer application to increase by 45-73%, P2O5 by 22-46%, and K2O by 2-3 times compare to 2010. Considering population growth, we found that the global agricultural GHG emissions will approach 7 Gt CO2eq./yr by 2050, while the global livestock feed demand will remain similar to 2000. This changes tremendously when diet shifts are also taken into account, resulting in GHG emissions of 20 Gt CO2eq./yr and an increase of 1.3 times in the crop-based feed demand between 2000 and 2050. However, when population growth, diet shifts, and technological progress by 2050 were considered, GHG emissions can be reduced to 14 Gt CO2eq./yr and the feed demand to nearly 1.8 times compare to that in 2000. Additionally, our findings shows that based on the progress made in closing yield gaps, the number of people depending on international trade can vary between 1.5 and 6 billion by 2050. In medium term, this requires additional fossil energy. Furthermore, climate change, affecting crop yields, will increase the need for international agricultural trade by 4% to 16%. In summary, three general conclusions are drawn from this dissertation. First, changing dietary patterns will significantly increase crop demand, agricultural GHG emissions, and international food trade in the future when compared to population growth only. Second, such increments can be reduced by technology transfer and technological progress that will enhance crop yields, decrease agricultural emission intensities, and increase livestock feed conversion efficiencies. Moreover, international trade dependency can be lowered by consuming local and regional food products, by producing diverse types of food, and by closing yield gaps. Third, location specific inputs and management options are required to close yield gaps. Sustainability of such inputs and management largely depends on which options are chosen and how they are implemented. However, while every cultivated land may not need to attain its potential yields to enable food security, closing yield gaps only may not be enough to achieve food self-sufficiency in some regions. Hence, a combination of sustainable implementations of agricultural intensification, expansion, and trade as well as shifting dietary habits towards a lower share of animal products is required to feed the growing population. Der Mensch beeinflusst die landwirtschaftlichen Erträge unmittelbar durch anthropogen verursachte Treiber des globalen Wandels, wie Bodenerosion, Wasserknappheit und Klimawandel, wovon er und seine Lebensmittelversorgung wiederum direkt betroffen sein werden. Einerseits steigert der Einsatz von Agrochemikalien und mithilfe fossiler Energien erzeugte Dünger die landwirtschaftlichen Erträge. Andererseits tragen Bevölkerungswachstum sowie die Tendenz zu kalorienreichen Ernährungsweisen zu einer vermehrten Nahrungsmittelnachfrage von 60-110% von 2005 bis 2050 bei. Das Decken der wachsenden Lebensmittelnachfrage bei gleichzeitiger Reduktion des landwirtschaftlichen Ressourcenverbrauchs und Umweltbelastungen stellt eine zentrale Herausforderung für die globale Nachhaltigkeit dar. In diesem Rahmen versucht diese Arbeit, die Potentiale der globalen Landwirtschaft auf kleinräumiger Skala auszuloten. Hierbei werden Prognosen zu Auswirkungen von Ernährungsmustern und Veränderungen der landwirtschaftlichen Produktionsmethoden unter Beibehaltung der der Anbaufolge und deren Einfluss auf den Klimawandel berücksichtigt. Projektionen basierend auf räumlich hoch aufgelösten Daten lassen Aussagen darüber zu, inwieweit die Nahrungsmittelproduktion lokal sichergestellt werden kann und falls nicht, wie dies durch regionalen und/oder globalen Handel erfolgen kann. Frei verfügbare Datensätze und Ansätze, wie künstliche neuronale Netze, Szenarioanalysen, Downscaling und skalenübergreifende Methoden werden zur Bearbeitung genutzt. Für den Zeitraum von 1961 bis 2007 konnten 16 globale Ernährungstypologien identifiziert werden. Diese spiegeln vor allem eine Tendenz hin zu fleischhaltiger Kost wider. Durch den hohen Anteil tierischer Produkte verursachen kalorienreiche Ernährungsmuster, wie in Industrieländern üblich, hohe pro Kopf Emissionen von 3,7-6,1 kg CO2eq./Tag und übersteigen die pro Kopf Emissionen von 1,4-4,5 kg CO2eq./Tag einer kalorienarmen Ernährungsweise in Entwicklungsländern. Weltweit werden 40% aller landwirtschaftlichen Erzeugnisse als Futtermittel genutzt, was bedeutet, dass aus einem regional variierenden Wert von weniger als 1 kcal bis 10 kcal Getreide, 1 kcal tierische Produkte erzeugt werden. Im Jahr 2000 konnten lokale und nationale Nahrungsmittelproduktionen die Nachfrage von 1,9 bzw. 4,4 Milliarden Menschen erfüllen. Trotzdem sind ca. 1 Milliarde Menschen in Asien und Afrika auf interkontinentalen Handel angewiesen um ihre Lebensmittelnachfrage zu decken. Bei alleiniger Betrachtung des Bevölkerungswachstums wird ein Anstieg der globalen landwirtschaftlichen Treibhausgasemissionen bis zum Jahr 2050 auf jährlich 7 Gt CO2eq. deutlich, während die Nachfrage nach angebauten Futtermitteln gegenüber 2000 annähernd gleich bleiben wird. Das Hinzuziehen von Ernährungsgewohnheiten zeigt, dass zwischen 2000 und 2050 ein Anstieg der Treibhausgasemissionen auf 20 Gt CO2eq. pro Jahr und eine 1,3-fach gesteigerte Nachfrage nach Futtermittel möglich ist. Der zusätzliche Einbezug von technologischem Fortschritt ergibt, dass Emissionen auf jährlich 14 Gt CO2eq. und der Anstieg der Futtermittelnachfrage auf das 0,8-fache reduziert werden können. Daraus geht die Erkenntnis hervor, dass je nachdem, wie erfolgreich Ertragslücken geschlossen werden, 1,5 bis 6 Milliarden Menschen vom internationalen Handel abhängig sind, welcher mittelfristig zusätzliche fossile Energie benötigt. Der Einfluss des Klimawandels auf Ernteerträge wird den Bedarf an internationalem Handel mit landwirtschaftlichen Produkten um 4% bis 16% erhöhen. Weiterhin lässt sich schlussfolgern, dass insbesondere veränderte Ernährungsgewohnheiten, im Gegensatz zu Bevölkerungswachstum, die Nachfrage nach Getreide, die landwirtschaftlichen Treibhausgasemissionen sowie den internationalen Handel mit Nahrungsmitteln erhöhen werden. Durch adäquaten Technologietransfer und technologischen Fortschritt lassen sich Ernteerträge steigern, landwirtschaftliche Emissionen senken und die Effizienz der Umwandlung von Futtermittel in tierische Produkte erhöhen. Abhängigkeiten vom internationalen Handel könnten durch den Konsum lokaler und regionaler Produkte und durch Diversifizierung von Erzeugnissen verringert werden. Zur Schließung von Ertragslücken sind ortsspezifische Maßnahmen erforderlich, wie die nachhaltige Verwendung von Düngemitteln und Pestiziden, Bodenverbesserung, Maßnahmen zur Abschwächung klimabedingter Ernteschwankungen sowie ein verbesserter Marktzugang. Um die Ernährung einer wachsenden Weltbevölkerung zu gewährleisten, ist eine Kombination aus nachhaltiger Intensivierung und Ausweitung der Landwirtschaft, des Handels sowie Ernährungsmuster mit geringeren Anteilen tierischer Produkte notwendig.