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SummaryMultiple linear regression techniques are applied to determine the relative batting and bowling strengths and a common home advantage for teams playing both innings of international one-day cricket and the first innings of a test-match. It is established that in both forms of the game Australia and South Africa were rated substantially above the other teams. It is also shown that home teams generally enjoyed a significant advantage. Using the relative batting and bowling strengths of teams, together with parameters that are associated with common home advantage, winning the toss and the establishment of a first-innings lead, multinomial logistic regression techniques are applied to explore further how these factors critically affect outcomes of test-matches. It is established that in test cricket a team’s first-innings batting and bowling strength, first-innings lead, batting order and home advantage are strong predictors of a winning match outcome. Contrary to popular opinion, it is found that the team batting second in a test enjoys a significant advantage. Notably, the relative superiority of teams during the fourth innings of a test-match, but not the third innings, is a strong predictor of a winning outcome. There is no evidence to suggest that teams generally gained a winning advantage as a result of winning the toss.

Luck can play a big part in tournament success, and progress is not necessarily the best measure of performance. A linear model is used to fit least squares ratings to margins of victory in the cricket World Cup. The Duckworth/Lewis rain interruption rules are used to project a winning second innings score and create a margin of victory in runs, equivalent to that used when the team batting first wins. Results show that, while the better teams progressed through the first round of the competition, some injustices occurred in the Super-Six round. This appears to be due to the double counting of selected matches. Ordering teams by average margin of victory gives similar results to the more complicated linear model, and its use as a tie breaker is suggested. Publication of the margin of victory as estimated by the Duckworth/Lewis method for second innings victories in all one-day matches would provide a common margin of victory suitable for analysis.