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Highlights • The UK’s and Germany’s coal phase-out pathways diverge in timing and measures. • Different powers of actor groups contribute to diverging trends in UK and Germany. • Influential German coal corporations and unions slow down coal’s decline. • Energy security concerns, domestic mining and economic dependence create resistance. • Reducing the influence incumbents have on policy making might enable coal phase-out., Political decisions and trends regarding coal use for electricity generation developed differently in the UK and Germany, despite being subject to relatively similar climate protection targets and general political and economic conditions. The UK agreed on a coal phase-out by 2024. In Germany, a law schedules a coal phase-out by 2038 at the latest. This paper investigates reasons for the different developments and aims to identify main hurdles and drivers of coal phase-outs by using the Triple Embeddedness Framework. The comparative case study approach reveals that policy outcomes regarding coal consumption are deeply influenced by several actor groups, namely, coal companies, unions, environmental NGOs, and the government. The most discussed aspects of a coal phase-out in both countries are energy security concerns, whether coal is mined domestically, (regional) economic dependence, as well as the relative power of actors with vested interests in coal consumption.

The main aim of models has never been to provide numbers, but insights. Still, challenges prevail for modelers to use the best configuration of their models to provide helpful insights. In the case of energy system modelling, this becomes even more complicated due to increasing complexity of the energy system transition through the potential and need for sector coupling. This paper therefore showcases specific characteristics and challenges for energy system modelling of 100% renewable scenarios. The findings are based on various applications and modifications of the framework GENeSYS-MOD examining different regional characteristics for high renewable configurations in the world, China, India, South-Africa, Mexico, Europe, Germany, and Colombia. The paper elaborates on our experiences of the last years of choosing the best, yet still computable, configuration of GENeSYS-MOD with respect to spatial and time resolution as well as sufficient detailed description of the energy system transition effects. The aim of this paper is therefore twofold, to better understand and interpret existing models as well as to improve future modeling exercises.

German hard coal production ended in 2018, following the termination of subsidies. This paper looks at 60 years of continuous decline of an industry that employed more than 600,000 people, through a case study comparing Germany’s two largest hard coal mining areas (Ruhr area and Saarland). Although predominantly economic drivers underlay the transitions, both provide valuable lessons for upcoming coal phase-outs induced by stricter climate policies, including beyond Germany. The analysis identifies the main qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the two regions. It then discusses policy instruments implemented to guide the transition, including measures for the conservation of coal production, regional economic reorientation, and the easing of the transition’s social impacts. The success of these policies is evaluated using economic, social, and geographical indicators that were developed within three interdisciplinary research projects running from 2016 to 2019. A key lesson from the examined case studies is the importance of combining not only policies addressing unemployment and the attraction of new energy corporations and investments, but also measures improving infrastructure, education, research facilities and soft location factors. Protecting a declining industry for decades caused increased transition costs compared to an earlier phase-out. Economic reorientation and changing regional identities have proven most difficult in the past. However, the German example illustrates that the complexity of the challenges of a transition can be mastered if city, regional, and national governments and institutions cooperate in a polycentric approach. Key policy insightsA faster and more pro-active hard coal mining phase-out in Germany would have been much less expensive and paved the way for new industriesA just and in-time transition needs to: be jointly managed in a polycentric approach by city, regional, national, and international governments and institutions.combine climate, energy, social, and structural policies, whilst recognizing both local specifics and global connections.consider long-term effects, external independent advice apart from the incumbent regime and beyond-border thinking, while aiming to diversify the economy and enabling broad stakeholder participation.address unemployment, the economy, and the energy system, as well as measures to improve infrastructure, universities, research facilities, and soft location factors. A faster and more pro-active hard coal mining phase-out in Germany would have been much less expensive and paved the way for new industries A just and in-time transition needs to: be jointly managed in a polycentric approach by city, regional, national, and international governments and institutions.combine climate, energy, social, and structural policies, whilst recognizing both local specifics and global connections.consider long-term effects, external independent advice apart from the incumbent regime and beyond-border thinking, while aiming to diversify the economy and enabling broad stakeholder participation.address unemployment, the economy, and the energy system, as well as measures to improve infrastructure, universities, research facilities, and soft location factors. be jointly managed in a polycentric approach by city, regional, national, and international governments and institutions. combine climate, energy, social, and structural policies, whilst recognizing both local specifics and global connections. consider long-term effects, external independent advice apart from the incumbent regime and beyond-border thinking, while aiming to diversify the economy and enabling broad stakeholder participation. address unemployment, the economy, and the energy system, as well as measures to improve infrastructure, universities, research facilities, and soft location factors.

This paper assesses the impact of decarbonization on the energy system and related employment in South Africa. The cost-minimizing, global energy system model (GENeSYS-MOD) is utilized to project two energy mix scenarios and their associated employment implications at provincial level. While the business as usual (BAU) scenario shows a continuous use of coal capacity in the South African power sector until 2050, the 2 °C scenario exhibits a phase-out of coal by 2040 and a higher diversification of power generation dominated by solar and wind capacity. The increase in renewable energy sources (RES) generates employment in the energy sector which can partially substitute the decline in coal related jobs in affected regions. However, it is not certain that the employment created by RES will directly benefit those negatively impacted by the transition. The results of a sensitivity of the 2 °C scenario provide a near cost-optimal energy system in line with a just transition towards a 2 °C world that limits the employment impacts for former coal regions. Thus, a technological transition from a coal- to a RES-based system needs comprehensive plans for job-transfers, policy formulations, support mechanisms and structural transformation.

A rapid coal phase-out is needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, but is hindered by serious challenges ranging from vested interests to the risks of social disruption. To understand how to organize a global coal phase-out, it is crucial to go beyond cost-effective climate mitigation scenarios and learn from the experience of previous coal transitions. Despite the relevance of the topic, evidence remains fragmented throughout different research fields, and not easily accessible. To address this gap, this paper provides a systematic map and comprehensive review of the literature on historical coal transitions. We use computer-assisted systematic mapping and review methods to chart and evaluate the available evidence on historical declines in coal production and consumption. We extracted a dataset of 278 case studies from 194 publications, covering coal transitions in 44 countries and ranging from the end of the 19th century until 2021. We find a relatively recent and rapidly expanding body of literature reflecting the growing importance of an early coal phase-out in scientific and political debates. Previous evidence has primarily focused on the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany, while other countries that experienced large coal declines, like those in Eastern Europe, are strongly underrepresented. An increasing number of studies, mostly published in the last 5 years, has been focusing on China. Most of the countries successfully reducing coal dependency have undergone both demand-side and supply-side transitions. This supports the use of policy approaches targeting both demand and supply to achieve a complete coal phase-out. From a political economy perspective, our dataset highlights that most transitions are driven by rising production costs for coal, falling prices for alternative energies, or local environmental concerns, especially regarding air pollution. The main challenges for coal-dependent regions are structural change transformations, in particular for industry and labor. Rising unemployment is the most largely documented outcome in the sample. Policymakers at multiple levels are instrumental in facilitating coal transitions. They rely mainly on regulatory instruments to foster the transitions and compensation schemes or investment plans to deal with their transformative processes. Even though many models suggest that coal phase-outs are among the low-hanging fruits on the way to climate neutrality and meeting the international climate goals, our case studies analysis highlights the intricate political economy at work that needs to be addressed through well-designed and just policies.

Graphical abstract, This paper examines medium and long-term perspectives for global steam coal production and trade, considering the potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and plausible recovery scenarios in its aftermath. We use an interdisciplinary approach to develop a range of stylized global coal demand scenarios until 2040 depicting the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting recovery stimuli. Additional insights are gained by adjusting trade restrictions of key countries within the coal sector model COALMOD-World to resemble plausible post-COVID-19 policy and market dynamics. Results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic might cause an “L” or “\” shape instead of the hoped for “V” or “U” shaped recovery of the coal industry. Regional effects vary, as the Atlantic market dries out first, causing shifts in trade patterns in the Pacific market. Moreover, announced trade restrictions could change dramatically the composition of the international steam coal trade. However, even significantly reduced coal consumption levels in low-coal post-COVID-19 scenarios would still be too high to comply with the global climate targets. This emphasizes the importance of concentrated policy efforts in the pandemic aftermath to manage a coal decline consistent with global climate targets while bringing just transitions efforts substantially forward, in particular in vulnerable coal-dependent countries and regions.

The political discussion to reduce the carbon footprint of Germany&rsquo, s electricity sector, focusing on coal, is intensifying. In this paper, we develop scenarios for phasing out lignite and hard coal power plants in Germany prior to the end of their technical lifespan (&ldquo, coal-exit&rdquo, ). Our analysis bases upon two coal-exit instruments, the retirement of coal generation capacities and the limiting of how much aged coal power plants with high carbon intensity can be used within a year. Results show that phasing out coal in Germany would have a considerable impact on Central European electricity markets, in terms of decarbonization efforts and electricity trade. An ambitious coal-exit could avert foreseeable shortcomings in Germany&rsquo, s climate performance in the short-run and release additional carbon savings, thus compensating for potential shortfalls in other energy-intensive sectors by 2030. Limited emissions in the range of 27% would be shifted to neighboring countries. However, tremendous positive climate effects on European scale would result, because Germany&rsquo, s annual emission savings in 2030 would be substantial. Totaling 85 million tons of CO2, the overall net reduction is equivalent to 17.5% of total European emissions in 2030 without retirements of coal-firing power plants prior to the end of their technical lifespan.

The ambition of the openENTRANCE project is to develop and establish an open, transparent and integrated modelling platform for assessing low-carbon transition pathways of the European energy system. In this context, the open source energy system model GENeSYS-MOD is one of the core models having been developed enabling quantitative scenario pathway studies of the future European energy system. The four quantitative studies presented in the openENTRANCE project and in this paper build upon the four storylines developed at the beginning of the openENTRANCE project. A storyline is a narrative describing possible future trajectories (pathways) of the energy transition. Storylines should be understood as possible future developments of the European energy system, which could occur equally without having a preference for one of them. Three of the storylines, and subsequently quantified scenario pathway studies in openENTRANCE comply with the (European fraction of the) 1.5 ∘C global temperature increase limit. The fourth one approaches the 2.0 ∘C limit. The quantified scenario pathway results not only show the needs of the fully open energy system model GENeSYS-MOD to find feasible solutions of the underlying analytical optimization problem, but more importantly highlight what needs to be done in the future European energy system if we seriously intend to limit global warming! This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article. Locked until 14/10-2021 due to copyright restrictions. The final authenticated version is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00502-020-00832-7

For climate change mitigation, a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels such as coal is necessary. This has far-reaching gender-specific consequences. This paper presents a systematic map of the literature that examines the impact of historical coal phase-out processes on women and their role in these processes. The search process consisted of screening over 3100 abstracts and reading 247 full-text studies. The analysis of the 73 publications ultimately included in the systematic map shows that past coal phase-outs meant both opportunities (e.g., increased labour market participation) as well as burdens for women (e.g., double burden of job and household). It becomes clear that agency within coal transitions was also gendered. For example, it was difficult for women to gain access to union structures, which led them to organise themselves into grassroots movements. Our research shows that policies aiming for a just sustainability transition should always be explicitly gender-responsive. However, the impact of sustainability transitions on women’s lives remains largely under-researched. Therefore, we propose a research agenda based on our findings containing six key issues that need to be addressed scientifically.

This paper presents a general electricity-CO $$_{2}$$ modeling framework that is able to simulate interactions of the energy-only market with different forms of national policy measures. We set up a two sector model where players can invest into various types of generation technologies including renewables, nuclear power and carbon capture, transport, and storage (CCTS). For a detailed representation of CCTS we also include industry players (iron and steel as well as cement), and CO $$_{2}$$ transport and CO $$_{2}$$ storage including the option for CO $$_{2}$$ enhanced oil recovery (CO $$_{2}$$ -EOR). The players maximize their expected profits based on variable, fixed and investment costs as well as endogenous prices of electricity, CO $$_{2}$$ abatement cost and other incentives, subject to technical and environmental constraints. Demand is inelastic and represented via type hours. The model framework allows for regional disaggregation and features simplified electricity and CO $$_{2}$$ pipeline networks. It is balanced via a market clearing for the electricity as well as CO $$_{2}$$ market. The equilibrium solution is subject to constraints on CO $$_{2}$$ emissions and renewable generation share. We apply the model to a case study of the UK electricity market reform to illustrate the mechanisms and potential results attained from the model.

The European Union has set out to reduce the carbon intensity of its electricity generation substantially, as defined in the European Roadmap 2050. This paper analyses the impact of foresight towards decarbonization targets on the investment decisions in the European electricity sector using a specific model developed by the authors called dynELMOD. Incorporating the climate targets makes the investment into any additional fossil capacity uneconomic from 2025 onwards, resulting in a coal and natural gas phase-out in the 2040s. Limited foresight thus results in stranded investments of fossil capacities in the 2020s. Using a CO2 budgetary approach, on the other hand, leads to an even sharper emission reduction in the early periods before 2030, reducing overall costs. We also find that renewables carry the major burden of decarbonization; nuclear power (3rd or 4th generation) is unable to compete with other fuels and will, therefore, be phased out over time.

Growing prosperity among its population and an inherent increasing demand for energy complicate China’s target of combating climate change, while maintaining its economic growth. This paper, therefore, describes three potential decarbonization pathways to analyze different effects for the electricity, transport, heating, and industrial sectors until 2050. Using an enhanced version of the multi-sectoral, open-source Global Energy System Model, enables us to assess the impact of different CO2 budgets on the upcoming energy system transformation. A detailed provincial resolution allows for the implementation of regional characteristics and disparities within China. Conclusively, we complement the model-based analysis with a quantitative assessment of current barriers for the needed transformation. Results indicate that overall energy system CO2 emissions and in particular coal usage have to be reduced drastically to meet (inter-) national climate targets. Specifically, coal consumption has to decrease by around 60% in 2050 compared to 2015. The current Nationally Determined Contributions proposed by the Chinese government of peaking emissions in 2030 are, therefore, not sufficient to comply with a global CO2 budget in line with the Paris Agreement. Renewable energies, in particular photovoltaics and onshore wind, profit from decreasing costs and can provide a more sustainable and cheaper energy source. Furthermore, increased stakeholder interactions and incentives are needed to mitigate the resistance of local actors against a low-carbon transformation. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This article is available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). You may copy and distribute the article, create extracts, abstracts and new works from the article, alter and revise the article, text or data mine the article and otherwise reuse the article commercially (including reuse and/or resale of the article) without permission from Elsevier.

Like many other countries, Germany has defined goals to reduce its CO2-emissions following the Paris Agreement of the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP). The first successes in decarbonizing the electricity sector were already achieved under the German Energiewende. However, further steps in this direction, also concerning the heat and transport sectors, have stalled. This paper describes three possible pathways for the transformation of the German energy system until 2050. The scenarios take into account current climate politics on a global, European, and German level and also include different demand projections, technological trends and resource prices. The model includes the sectors power, heat, and transportation and works on a Federal State level. For the analysis, the linear cost-optimizing Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) is used to calculate the cost-efficient paths and technology mixes. We find that a reduction of CO2 of more than 80% in the less ambitious scenario can be welfare enhancing compared to a scenario without any climate mitigating policies. Even higher decarbonization rates of 95% are feasible and needed to comply with international climate targets, yet related to high effort in transforming the subsector of process heat. The different pathways depicted in this paper render chances and risks of transforming the German energy system under various external influences.

The nuclear industry in the United States of America has accumulated about 70,000 metric tons of high-level nuclear waste over the past decades, at present, this waste is temporarily stored close to the nuclear power plants. The industry and the Department of Energy are now facing two related challenges: (i) will a permanent geological repository, e.g., Yucca Mountain, become available in the future, and if yes, when?, (ii) should the high-level waste be transported to interim storage facilities in the meantime, which may be safer and more cost economic? This paper presents a mathematical transportation model that evaluates the economic challenges and costs associated with different scenarios regarding the opening of a long-term geological repository. The model results suggest that any further delay in opening a long-term storage increases cost and consolidated interim storage facilities should be built now. We show that Yucca Mountain&rsquo, s capacity is insufficient and additional storage is necessary. A sensitivity analysis for the reprocessing of high-level waste finds this uneconomic in all cases. This paper thus emphasizes the urgency of dealing with the high-level nuclear waste and informs the debate between the nuclear industry and policymakers on the basis of objective data and quantitative analysis.

Colombia faces several challenges to secure a reliable, affordable, and climate-friendly energy supply. Persistently low reserve-to-production ratios in oil and gas, together with advancing climate change, are putting the country’s energy system at risk. Heavily relying on hydro-power, Colombia’s electricity system will become more vulnerable with extreme weather patterns such as El Niño. This paper offers a multi-method study of the role of photovoltaic (PV), specially prosumage systems, to support a slowly starting energy transition in Colombia. First, qualitative data from an expert elicitation in Colombia’s energy sector is analysed. Second, a model to calculate the internal rate of revenue for households is used to identify optimal sizes for household PV or prosumage systems under the new regulatory framework. Key concerns emerging from the expert elicitation include lacking substantial financial aid, insufficient tax incentives, and high equipment prices, which raise investment and operation costs. Also, model results confirm net-metering implementation as an enabler of widespread deployment of household PV systems. Most profitable system configurations include PV systems without storage technology. Our findings show that financial instruments are still insufficient to scale-up household level PV deployment. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons CC-BY license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

In this paper, multiple pathways for the European energy system until 2050 are computed, focusing on one of the major challenges of the low-carbon transition: the issue of unused capacities and stranded assets. Three different scenarios are analyzed, utilizing the Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) for calculations. A major feature is the introduction of limited foresight and imperfect planning to the multi-sectoral approach of the model. A swift transition towards renewable energy sources is needed in order to ensure the goal of staying below 2 °C is maintained. This leads to the underutilization of current fossil-fueled plant capacities, an effect compounded by the prioritization of short-term goals over long-term targets. In the worst case, capacities with a combined value of up to 200 billion € corresponding to 260 GW total capacity may end up stranded by 2035, with significant shares in the coal and gas sectors. Contrary, in the baseline scenario featuring perfect foresight, this amount can by reduced by as much as 75%. Thus, the need for strong, clear signals from policy makers arises in order to combat the threat of short-sighted planning and investment losses. © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

This book provides an in-depth analysis of the energy transformation process ongoing in Germany, now commonly referred to as energiewende, in the European context, with a focus on the electricity sector. It presents an expert look at the origins of the German energiewende, its concrete implementation, its impacts within the European context as well as medium and long-term perspectives. The authors, internationally recognized energy, electricity, and climate economists at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) and Berlin University of Technology, conclude that the first years of the energiewende have successfully laid the foundation for a renewables-based electricity system in Germany, but that challenges remain in relation to decarbonizing the electricity system and phasing out nuclear energy. The authors also provide ground-breaking insights to inform energy policy in other countries and at the European level. In the outlook, the authors explore upcoming issues, such as coupling between the electricity and other sectors, and behavioral changes of industry and households. The book addresses readers in the energy industry, energy and climate policymakers, regulators, and others interested in the low carbon energy system transformation in Germany, Europe, and worldwide.

The energiewende “made in Germany” is a relatively recent phenomenon, yet with a long germination period, going back to the 1970s, and it has attracted broad interest in many spheres, including academia, industry, and policy making. The previous chapters have provided insights into specific aspects of the process, and have sketched out possible pathways for future developments. The chapters of this book share among them the conviction that, while many obstacles have yet to be overcome, the energiewende is well underway, e.g. increasing the share of renewables in the electricity sector, or taking nuclear power plants from the grid without adverse impacts; however, significant challenges remain, e.g. increasing energy efficiency, and reducing the carbon footprint of the energy system as a whole. From a public policy perspective, the energiewende is well justified because it enhances the welfare of society. The objective of this chapter is to draw some cross-cutting lessons from the first period of the energiewende. Until recently, the focus of the energiewende was on the electricity sector, but what is required is an energy system wide approach. There are at least three decades before us in which further reforms, technical innovations, and political consensus will be required to make the energiewende a true success. The empirical evidence from the recent past, together with a technical and political assessment of the feasibility of the next reform steps, allows us to formulate 15 lessons, both summarizing the previous chapters and opening up perspectives on the future. This will be done following the book’s structure: Section 14.2 looks at lessons from the long-term analysis of energy and climate policies (Part I of the book). Section 14.3 focuses on the lessons from the ongoing energiewende in Germany (Part II), and Sect. 14.4 provides lessons on the interplay between the German setting and the low-carbon transformation at the European level (Part III). Section 14.5 discusses the findings, provides an outlook on the next phases, and concludes.

This chapter provides an introduction to the book entitled “energiewende “Made in Germany”—Low-Carbon Electricity Sector Reform in the European Context”. The energiewende is the German approach to the low-carbon transformation. It emerged at a time where many countries in Europe and around the globe were considering how to move to lower carbon energy systems, and most of them still are. Our working hypothesis, based on extensive modeling exercises, policy consulting, personal on-site case studies, and the growing literature, is that the energiewende is a unique political-historical period that will transform the structure of the German energy sector, leading to more decentralized energy production and decision-making and transforming the structure of the energy industry within Germany and beyond. So far, the energiewende has been a success overall, in particular because the foundation for a renewables-based electricity system has been laid. Yet other objectives had to be postponed, though, such as the GHG emission reduction target for 2020 (−40%, relative to 1990). While the lessons of the energiewende do not apply directly to all countries and regions worldwide, they offer insights from the natural experiment of transforming a large-scale, conventional electricity system based on coal and nuclear energy into a renewables-based system. Our analysis focuses on the electricity sector, but we also address other challenges in the transport and heating sectors, as well as the upcoming interconnectedness between the three, called “sector coupling”. Section 1.2 spells out the key characteristics of the energiewende, which later chapters will analyze in more detail. Section 1.3 looks at the German energiewende in the context of the energy and climate policy literature, Sect. 1.4 presents a detailed outline of the book, and the last Section concludes with acknowledgements.

Poland is the largest hard coal and second largest lignite producer in the EU, generating around 80 percent of its electricity from coal. Resistance to a reduction in coal production and consumption comes from various actors, namely, coal corporations, unions, parts of civil society and the government – as well as their coalitions. Their opposition centres around the prospect of losing their business, past negative experiences with structural change, fears of rising energy prices and energy security concerns, as well as potential unemployment in regions almost entirely dependent on coal. This paper identifies key political and economic drivers and barriers of a reduction in coal production and consumption in Poland using the Triple Embeddedness Framework. Uneconomic coal mining, unavoidable energy infrastructure investments, rising air pollution levels and pressure from the European Union might provide new political momentum for a shift away from coal in line with international climate targets. However, results show that to achieve political feasibility, policies targeting a reduction in coal production and use need to be implemented jointly with social and structural policy measures, addressing a just transition for the affected regions in line with the vision of a ‘European Green Deal’.

The present study examines the consequences of the planned coal phase-out in Germany according to various phase-out pathways that differ in the ordering of power plant closures. Soft-linking an energy system model with an input-output model and a regional macroeconomic model simulates the socio-economic effects of the phase-out in the lignite regions, as well as in the rest of Germany. The combination of two economic models offers the advantage of considering the phase-out from different perspectives and thus assessing the robustness of the results. The model results show that the lignite coal regions will exhibit losses in output, income and population, but a faster phase-out would lead to a quicker recovery. Migration to other areas in Germany and demographic changes will partially compensate for increasing unemployment, but support from federal policy is also necessary to support structural change in these regions.

With an increasing expected energy demand and current dominance of coal electrification, India plays a major role in global carbon policies and the future low-carbon transformation. This paper explores three energy pathways for India until 2050 by applying the linear, cost-minimizing, global energy system model (GENeSYS-MOD). The benchmark scenario “limited emissions only„ (LEO) is based on ambitious targets set out by the Paris Agreement. A more conservative “business as usual„ (BAU) scenario is sketched out along the lines of the New Policies scenario from the International Energy Agency (IEA). On the more ambitious side, we explore the potential implications of supplying the Indian economy entirely with renewable energies with the “100% renewable energy sources„ (100% RES) scenario. Overall, our results suggest that a transformation process towards a low-carbon energy system in the power, heat, and transportation sectors until 2050 is technically feasible. Solar power is likely to establish itself as the key energy source by 2050 in all scenarios, given the model’s underlying emission limits and technical parameters. The paper concludes with an analysis of potential social, economic and political barriers to be overcome for the needed Indian low-carbon transformation.

Continued global action on climate change has major consequences for fossil fuel markets, especially for coal as the most carbon-intensive fuel. This article summarizes current market developments in the most important coal-producing and coal-consuming countries, resulting in a critical qualitative assessment of prospects for future coal exports. Colombia, as the world’s fourth largest exporter, is strongly affected by these global trends, with more than 90% of its production being exported. Market analysis finds Colombia in a strong competitive position, owing to its low production costs and high coal quality. Nevertheless, market trends and enhanced climate policies suggest a gloomy outlook for future exports. Increasing competition on the Atlantic as well as Pacific market will keep coal prices low and continue pressure on mining companies. Increasing numbers of filed bankruptcies and lay-offs might be just the beginning of a carbon bubble devaluing fossil fuel investments and leaving them stranded. Colombia largely supplies European and Mediterranean consumers but also delivers some quantities to the US Gulf Coast, and to Central and South America. Future coal demand in most of these countries will continue to decline in the next decades. Newly constructed power plants in emerging economies (India, China) are unlikely to compensate for this downturn owing to increasing domestic supply and decreasing demand. Therefore, maintaining or even increasing mining volumes in Colombia should be re-evaluated, taking into account new economic realities as well as local externalities. Ignoring these risks could lead to additional stranded investments, aggravating the local resource curse and hampering sustainable economic development. Key policy insightsThe climate policies of most of Colombia’s traditional trade partners target steam coal as the more emission-intensive fossil fuel, with many countries implementing or considering a coal phase-out.Coal exporters should re-evaluate their operations and new investments taking into account this new policy environment.To prevent a race to the bottom among coal producers that would favour weak regulation, climate policy makers should also consider the local social and external costs of coal mining, including on health and the local environment. The climate policies of most of Colombia’s traditional trade partners target steam coal as the more emission-intensive fossil fuel, with many countries implementing or considering a coal phase-out. Coal exporters should re-evaluate their operations and new investments taking into account this new policy environment. To prevent a race to the bottom among coal producers that would favour weak regulation, climate policy makers should also consider the local social and external costs of coal mining, including on health and the local environment.

The European Union has embarked on the transformation of its energy and electricity system to low-carbon energy sources, just like Germany and many other countries. This chapter analyzes the European strategy for low-carbon transformation in relation to specific aspects and features of the German energiewende. Due to the different preferences, objectives, and institutional settings of decision-making processes in Germany and Europe, lessons from the German context are not directly applicable to the European context and vice versa. While some lessons apply to both—such as the German experience with ambitious CO2 reduction targets—others do not, such as the potential role of coal and nuclear energy in the longer-term energy mix. The chapter begins with a brief survey of European energy (and later climate) policies going back to 1951, with the decisions to establish the European Community for Steel and Coal (ECSC) and subsequently Euratom in 1957. Section 10.2 covers the creation of the European internal market in the 1990s and its application to the energy sectors (mainly electricity and natural gas); it also covers more recent discussions, such as the energy and climate package to 2020, the 2030 targets, and the parallel discussion about longer-term orientations up to 2050. Sections 10.3, 10.4, and 10.5 analyze the three pillars of European transformation towards a low-carbon energy system: coal with CO2 sequestration, nuclear power, and renewables. In this context, we discuss a major difference between the European transformation to a low-carbon economy and the German energiewende: The two energy sources that Germany has banned from its energy mix, coal and nuclear, are still high on the European agenda. Meanwhile, the potential of renewables has been systematically underestimated in European scenario documents, due mainly to an overestimation of costs and an underestimation of the technical potential. Section 10.6 then compares two alternative scenarios for a low-carbon transformation in Europe: one is the EU Reference Scenario, which is based on the traditional triad of coal (with CCTS), nuclear, and renewables. In the other scenario, based on our own modelling work, neither CCTS nor nuclear are available at a reasonable cost and renewables carry the major burden of decarbonisation. Section 10.7 concludes.

At least since the 1980 study on the energiewende by Krause et al. (Energie-Wende: Wachstum und Wohlstand ohne Erdol und Uran. Frankfurt am Main: S. Fischer), renewable energies have been considered a viable alternative to conventional fossil fuels, and renewable energy technologies were seen as a “soft path” towards a more sustainable energy system. The German government’s Energy Concept for 2050 declared the development of renewables as its number one energy priority. The share of renewables in primary energy consumption was to rise to above 60% by 2050 (2020: 18%, 2030: 30%, 2040: 45%) and targets for the share of renewables in electricity consumption were set even higher: at least 80% by 2050 (2020: 35%, 2030: 50%, 2040: 65%). Renewables have thus become a cornerstone of the current energiewende. This chapter discusses specific features of the German path toward a renewables-based electricity system and some challenges it is facing along the way. It also reports on the implications of a renewables-based electricity system for price formation and interrelations with conventional power plants. Section 6.2 recalls the development of renewables in Germany over the last 25 years from a niche source following the first feed-in law of 1990 to what has become Germany’s number one electricity source since 2014, contributing over one third of the total supply and leaving lignite, coal, natural gas, and nuclear behind. We also survey the employment impacts of renewables. In Section 6.3, we argue that a renewables-based electricity system works very differently than the previous conventional system, for example, with respect to price formation, the dominant weight of fixed costs, the disappearing wedge between “peak” and “base” load, and the increasing role of flexibility. Section 6.4 takes a look at the issue of costs in the renewables transformation of the energy system, both from an aggregate perspective and from the perspective of individual technologies. The section also compares the costs of renewables with conventional generation (coal and nuclear), taking a public economics perspective, considering, for instance, the external (social) costs. We find that the renewables-based energiewende is welfare-enhancing compared to the high social costs of the previous fossil and nuclear-based energy system. Section 6.5 concludes.

The reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, in particular CO2, is a major objective of the German energiewende. There has been broad consensus on this goal for many years now—in contrast to the continuing discussion over the proposed shutdown of Germany’s nuclear power plants. The German government’s Energy Concept 2010 already aimed at a 80–95% reduction of GHG by 2050 (compared to the base year 1990). In contrast to other sectors such as transport, agriculture, and heating, the electricity sector is capable of reducing CO2 emissions at relatively moderate cost through renewable energy sources. When excluding the option of carbon capture, transport and storage (CCTS) technologies, achieving ambitious climate objectives in Germany (and elsewhere) implies phasing out both hard coal and lignite. This chapter provides an overview of Germany’s GHG emission reduction targets in the electricity sector and the progress achieved so far. The electricity sector has the potential to lead the way in decarbonization, provided that the appropriate regulatory framework is in place. Due to insufficient price signals that can be expected to persist for the next decade, the European Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) will not be able to achieve this objective on its own but will require support from appropriate national instruments. Section 4.2 gives an overview of Germany’s GHG emission reduction targets and their relation to European targets. Section 4.3 focuses on coal-fired electricity generation and its problematic role in the German energy sector. Section 4.4 discusses the influence of the EU-ETS as well as various additional national instruments, including a CO2 emissions performance standard (EPS), a CO2 floor price, and a phase-out law. In Section 4.5, we show that a medium-term coal phase-out is compatible with resource adequacy in Germany. The resulting structural change in the affected local basins can be handled through additional schemes, thus posing no major obstacle to the phase-out of coal. Section 4.6 concludes.

The German economic and industrial development in the nineteenth and twentieth century was based (among other things) on coal. After World War II, the reconstruction of both German states, too, was largely organized around the coal and steel industry. Therefore, it is a particular challenge, that the objectives of the energiewende require a complete phase-out of coal in only about two decades. This chapter focusses on the past transformation of the coal sector in Germany. It provides lessons to be learned for other countries undergoing similar transformation processes. Our main working hypothesis is that the coal industry was reduced gradually in all large industrial basins, both in East and West Germany, in a rather structured and orderly manner. What is left over today, in the middle of the energiewende, is but a marginal share of previous activity and employment. Conditions are different, though, between the rather comfortable situation in the Rhine and Ruhr areas of prosperous West Germany, compared to the East German coal basin Lusatia, which was hit particularly hard. Sections 3.2 and 3.3 report the history of hard coal and lignite, respectively, between 1950 and 2017, including the time of the separation between East and West. Section 3.2 describes the role hard coal played in the energy system and economy of the mining areas in Western Germany from the 1950s until 2017. Section 3.3 describes the role of lignite in Germany, focusing on the drastic decline of lignite in East Germany after reunification. It is shown that both in terms of production and employment, the largest part of the transformation process has already taken place, with a particularly rapid speed in East German lignite between 1990 and 2000. The following Sect. 3.4 analyzes the implemented political measures which accompanied the decline in hard coal and lignite production. Section 3.5 then derives some lessons learned from the transformation process for other regions, and Sect. 3.6 concludes.

Long-term scenarios of the low-carbon energy transformation in Europe are quite diverse. In this chapter, we provide a detailed discussion of scenarios leading to a far-reaching decarbonization of the European energy system to 2050. We use an updated version of the Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD), developed by our group to study various low-carbon transformation processes at global, continental, or national level. The modeling results suggest that a largely renewables-based energy mix is the lowest cost solution to the decarbonization challenge, and that the distribution of the carbon budget has a strong impact on the results. Our model calculations thus confirm bottom-up results obtained for the electricity sector, in Chap. 10, suggesting that the solution to the carbon challenge is the increased use of renewable energy sources, mainly solar and wind. Section 13.2 provides a non-technical description of the model, the Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD); it is an energy system model developed recently for scenario analysis, providing a high level of technical detail, and the integrated coverage of all sectors and fuels. Section 13.3 presents different GHG emissions pathways, related to a 1.5° increase of the global mean temperature, a 2° increase, and a business-as-usual (BAU) case with a much larger emission budget. For each scenario, we distributed the emission budget to countries according to different criteria, i.e. free distribution, share of European GDP, share of current emissions, or share of population. Section 13.4 presents model results, suggesting that renewable technologies gradually replace fossil-fuel generation, starting in the power sector: By 2040, almost all electricity generation is provided by a combination of PV, wind, and hydropower, using significant amounts of storage. The pathways for transportation and heat are more diverse, but they follow a similar general trend. The commitment for a 2 °C target only comes with a cost increase of about 1–2% (dependent on the emission share) compared to a business-as-usual-pathway, while yielding reduced emissions of about 25%. The different regions and demand sectors each experience different decarbonization pathways, depending on their potentials, political settings, and technology options. Section 13.5 concludes that with already known technologies, even ambitions climate targets can be met in Europe, at moderate costs, as long as strict carbon constraints are applied.

Both in the German energiewende and in the European low-carbon energy system transformation, infrastructure is generally considered as a conditio sine qua non: a necessary though not sufficient condition for a low-carbon economy—and one without which energy transformation may fail. At second glance, there may be some doubt as to whether “big infrastructure” is really the appropriate way to approach the low-carbon transformation. The main reason is that in a carbon-intensive energy system, more infrastructure automatically implies more carbon emissions (sometimes called “carbon lock-in”). In this chapter, we analyze the role of physical infrastructure in the European low-carbon transformation, with a special focus on large-scale transmission infrastructure for electricity, natural gas, and CO2. Although these infrastructures can play a certain role, they are not necessarily the critical factors in low-carbon transformation, and often low-cost measures such as improving regulation or tightening access rules are more effective than capital-intensive infrastructure expansion. Section 11.2 suggests that although a majority of authors see infrastructure development as a no-regrets option, there are also arguments against an oversupply of infrastructure. Sections 11.3–11.5 provide model- and case study-based analyses of different infrastructure sectors. Section 11.3 focuses on electricity transmission and compares the plans for pan-European electricity highways with other, more modest scenarios focusing on domestic upgrades and selected cross-country interconnectors. Section 11.4 is dedicated to natural gas infrastructure: Our results show no evidence of a substantial need for additional pipeline or LNG infrastructure, but rather a need for modest investment, given the diverse and global European supply of natural gas. Our analysis of infrastructure planning for carbon pipelines in Section 11.5 yields an even more striking result: Perhaps not a single cross-border pipeline may be required—except for perhaps a few in the North Sea—simply because the underlying technology, carbon capture, transport, and storage (CCTS), is unlikely to be used at the expected scale. Our conclusion in Section 11.6 is that the way forward is more likely to lie in regional and local cooperation in infrastructure.

This paper develops a path for the global energy system up to 2050, presenting a new application of the open-source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS) to the community. It allows quite disaggregate energy and emission analysis: Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) uses a system of linear equations of the energy system to search for lowest-cost solutions for a secure energy supply, given externally defined constraints, mainly in terms of CO2-emissions. The general algebraic modeling system (GAMS) version of OSeMOSYS is updated to the newest version and, in addition, extended and enhanced to include e.g., a modal split for transport, an improved trading system, and changes to storages. The model can be scaled from small-scale applications, e.g., a company, to cover the global energy system. The paper also includes an application of GENeSYS-MOD to analyze decarbonization scenarios at the global level, broken down into 10 regions. Its main focus is on interdependencies between traditionally segregated sectors: electricity, transportation, and heating; which are all included in the model. Model calculations suggests that in order to achieve the 1.5–2 °C target, a combination of renewable energy sources provides the lowest-cost solution, solar photovoltaic being the dominant source. Average costs of electricity generation in 2050 are about 4 €cents/kWh (excluding infrastructure and transportation costs).

This paper develops a path for the global energy system up to 2050, presenting a new application of the open source energy systems model OSeMOSYS to the community. It allows quite disaggregate energy and emission analysis: GENeSYS-MOD (Global Energy System Model) uses a system of linear equations of the energy system to search for lowestcost solutions for a secure energy supply, given externally defined constraints, mainly in terms of CO2-emissions. The General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) version of OSeMOSYS is updated to the newest version and, in addition, extended and enhanced to include e.g. a modal split for transport, an improved trading system, and changes to storages. The model can be scaled from small-scale applications, e.g. a company, to cover the global energy system. The paper also includes an application of GENeSYS-MOD to analyze decarbonization scenarios at the global level, broken down into 10 regions. Its main focus is on interdependencies between traditionally segregated sectors: electricity, transportation, and heating. Model calculations suggests that in order to achieve the 1.5°-2° C target, a combination of renewable energy sources provides the lowest-cost solution, solar photovoltaic being the dominant source. Average costs of electricity generation in 2050 are about 4 €cents/kWh (excluding infrastructure and transportation costs).

In this paper, we develop a model to analyze the economics of carbon capture, transport, and storage (CCTS) in the wake of expected rising CO2 prices. We present a scalable mixed integer, multiperiod, welfare-optimizing network model for Europe, called CCTS-Mod. The model incorporates endogenous decisions on carbon capture, pipeline and storage investments, as well as capture, flow and injection quantities based on given costs, CO2 prices, storage capacities, and point source emissions. Given full information about future costs of CCTS-technology, and CO2 prices, the model determines a cost minimizing strategy on whether to purchase CO2 certificates, or to abate the CO2 through investments into a CCTS-chain on a site by site basis. We apply the model to analyze different scenarios for the deployment of CCTS in Europe, e.g., under high and low CO2 prices, respectively. We find that beyond CO2 prices of €50 per t, CCTS can contribute to the decarbonization of Europe’s industry sectors, as long as one assumes sufficient storage capacities (onshore and/or offshore). We find that CCTS is only viable for the power sector if the CO2 certificate price exceeds €75 per t.

This article presents a quantitative assessment of the need for electricity transmission capacity investments in Germany for 2030. Congestion is analyzed and its possible relief through appropriate grid reinforcements as those described in the Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) of the European Commission. Congestion is investigated in three scenarios which differ in the location of power resources and the line expansion projects accomplished. Results show that the TYNDP and overlay line projects proposed in 2011 are not sufficient measures to cope with the increasing demand for transmission capacity. The paper also concludes that if power generation resources are moved closer to demand centers grid bottlenecks can be partly relieved by 2030. The introduction of a high-voltage direct current (HVDC) backbone grid does not relieve congestion significantly.

Based on a review of the current state of the Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage (CCTS) technology, this paper analyzes the layout and costs of a potential CO2 infrastructure in Europe at the horizon of 2050. We apply the mixed-integer model CCTS-Mod to compute a CCTS infrastructure network for Europe, examining the effects of different CO2 price paths with different regional foci. Scenarios assuming low CO2 certificate prices lead to hardly any CCTS development in Europe. The iron and steel sector starts deployment once the CO2 certificate prices exceed 50 € /tCO2. The cement sector starts investing at a threshold of 75 € /tCO2, followed by the electricity sector when prices exceed 100 €/tCO2. The degree of CCTS deployment is found to be more sensitive to variable costs of CO2 capture than to investment costs. Additional revenues generated from utilizing CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) in the North Sea would lead to an earlier adoption of CCTS, independent of the CO2 certificate price; this case may become especially relevant for the UK, Norway and the Netherlands. However, scattered CCTS deployment increases unit cost of transport and storage infrastructure by 30% or more. This is the preprint of an article published in Energy Journal , available online at: https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.37.SI3.poei

Die Technologie der CO2-Abscheidung, -Transport und -Speicherung (CCTS) im Kraftwerks- und Industriesektor gilt auf globaler Ebene als wichtiger Bestandteil in einem Technologieportfolio zur CO2 Reduktion. Jedoch zeigt sich anhand aufgeschobenen oder abgebrochenen Demonstrationsprojekten, dass die Kosten der Abscheidung, die benotigte Pipelineinfrastruktur sowie das knappe Speicherpotential in geologischen Formationen der Technologie enge Grenzen setzen. Zudem konnte der wachsende Widerstand der Bevolkerung gegen die CO2-Speicherung zu einer weiteren Einschrankung des CO2-Vermeidungspotentials fuhren. In diesem Paper wird mit Hilfe des Modells CCTSMOD berechnet, welchen Beitrag die CCTS-Technologie zur CO2 Reduktion im Energie- und Industriesektor in Deutschland, unter verschiedenen Rahmenbedingungen leisten kann. Es zeigt sich, dass der Einsatz von CCTS ab CO2-Zertifikatepreisen von 50 €/tCO2 fur ausgewahlte Industriesektoren und ab 75 €/tCO2 fur den Kraftwerkssektor die kostengunstigste CO2-Vermeidungsoption darstellen kann. Eine vollstandige deutschlandweite CO2-Vermeidung durch CCTS ist mit exponentiell ansteigenden Kosten verbunden und erscheint insbesondere bei reiner Offshore-Speicherung unrealistisch. Aufgrund des beschrankten Speicherpotentials, fehlender alternativer Vermeidungsoptionen und geringeren Kosten der Abscheidung, ist eine vorwiegende Anwendung der Technologie im Stahl- und Zementsektor zu empfehlen.

To achieve the three main energy policy priorities of competitiveness, energy security and decarbonization, the UK government has recently undertaken a major “Energy Market Reform” (EMR). This paper presents a modeling framework to analyze how the different policy measures of the EMR will shape the future UK electricity generation mix until 2050. We set up a two-sector model where players can invest in various types of generation technologies including renewables, nuclear, and Carbon Capture, Transport, and Storage (CCTS). For a detailed representation of CCTS we also include industry players (iron/steel as well as cement), CO 2 transport, and CO 2 storage including the option for CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR). The players maximize their expected profits based on variable, fix and investment costs, as well as the price of electricity, CO 2 abatement, and other incentives, subject to technical and environmental constraints. Demand is inelastic and represented via a selection of representative hours. The model framework allows for regional disaggregation and features simplified electricity and CO 2 pipeline networks. The model uses a mass balance as market clearing for electricity and CO 2 . The equilibrium solution is subject to constraints on CO 2 emissions. In this paper we present the model formulation and some preliminary results to illustrate the mechanics of the model. The tentative scenario indicates a diversified technology mix for 2050. The CCTS development is purely triggered by CO 2 -EOR; the EMR does not incentives any additional CCTS investments.

This paper presents a general electricity-CO2 (ELCO) modeling framework that is able to simulate interactions of the energy-only market with different forms for national policy measures. We set up a two sector model where players can invest into various types of generation technologies including renewables, nuclear and Carbon Capture, Transport, and Storage (CCTS). For a detailed representation of CCTS we also include industry players (iron and steel as well as cement), and CO2 transport and CO2 storage including the option for CO2 enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR). The players maximize their expected profits based on variable, fixed and investment costs as well as the price of electricity, CO2 abatement cost and other incentives, subject to technical and environmental constraints. Demand is inelastic and represented via a selection of type hours. The model framework allows for regional disaggregation and features simplified electricity and CO2 pipeline networks. The model is balanced via a market clearing for the electricity as well as CO2 market. The equilibrium solution is subject to constraints on CO2 emissions and renewable generation share. We apply the model to a case study of the UK Electricity Market Reform to illustrate the mechanisms and potential results attained from the model.

Political instability of several countries in the Middle East is overshadowing one of the biggest challenges of the upcoming century: Water - a natural resource that is easily taken for granted, but whose scarcity might lead to serious conflicts. This paper investigates an optimal Water Allocation of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivershed by introducing the WATER-Model. A series of scenarios are analyzed to examine the effects of different levels of cooperation for an optimal water allocation. Special emphasize is put on the effects of filling new Turkish reservoirs which can cause additional welfare losses if these actions are not done on a basin-wide coordinated basis. Modeling results show that Turkey is most efficient in its water usage. However, using the water for irrigation purposes in Turkey, instead of the Iraqi or Syrian domestic and industrial sector, decreases the overall welfare. Especially the Euphrates basin might thus encounter losses of up to 33% due to such strategic behaviour. The predicted water demand growth in the region is going to increase this water scarcity further. Minimum flow treaties between riparian countries, however, can help to increase the overall welfare and should therefore be fostered.

Coal-fired power stations are responsible for around a third of Germany’s carbon emissions. Failure to reduce the persistently high level of coal-fired power generation threatens Germany’s climate targets for 2020 and 2050 and undermines a sustainable energy transition. Calculations by DIW Berlin and other expert opinions prove that, in the long term, lignite, in particular, is no longer relevant for the German energy system. However, if there is no significant increase in the price of CO2 emission certificates in the near future, a market-driven transition from coal to less CO2-intensive energy sources, such as natural gas, is unlikely to occur. Presently, a number of options for reducing the level of power generated by coal are being dicussed. Along with the reform of the Emissions Trading System (ETS), proposals also include minimum energy efficiency levels or greater flexibility requirements, national minimum prices for CO2 emission certificates, capacity mechanisms, a residual emissions cap for coal-fired power stations, emissions performance standards, and network development planning that respects the climate targets. The proposals address both existing and planned coal power plants. Kohlekraftwerke verursachen etwa ein Drittel des Kohlendioxidausstoßes in Deutschland. Wird das weiterhin hohe Niveau der Kohleverstromung zukünftig nicht gesenkt, sind nicht nur die deutschen Klimaschutzziele für die Jahre 2020 und 2050 gefährdet, sondern auch die nachhaltige Energiewende. Berechnungen des DIW Berlin sowie andere Fachexpertisen belegen, dass speziell die Braunkohle auf längere Sicht für das deutsche Energiesystem nicht mehr systemrelevant ist. Sollten die Preise für CO2-Zertifikate im europäischen Emissionshandelssystem aber auf absehbare Zeit nicht erheblich steigen, ist ein marktgetriebener Übergang von Kohle zu weniger CO2-intensiven Energieträgern wie Erdgas nicht zu erwarten. Derzeit werden verschiedene Optionen diskutiert, die die Kohleverstromung verringern könnten. Dazu zählen neben der Reform des Emissionsrechtehandels auch Mindestwirkungsgrade oder Flexibilitätsanforderungen, nationale Mindestpreise für CO2-Zertifikate, Kapazitätsmechanismen, Restemissionsmengen für Kohlekraftwerke und CO2-Grenzwerte sowie die Anpassung des Netzentwicklungsplans. Solche Vorschläge beziehen sich sowohl auf den Neubau von Kraftwerken als auch auf den Betrieb bestehender Kohlekraftwerke.

This paper analyzes the discrepancy between the high hopes placed in Carbon Capture, Transport, and Storage (CCTS) and the meager results that have been observed in reality, and advances several explanations for what we call a "lost decade" for CCTS. We trace the origins of the high hopes placed in this technology by industry and policymakers alike, and show how the large number of demonstration projects required for a breakthrough did not follow. We then identify possible explanations for the "lost decade", such as incumbent resistance to structural change, wrong technology choices, over-optimistic cost estimates, a premature focus on energy projects instead of industry, and the underestimation of transport and storage issues. We conclude it is likely that we have to live for quite some time with a cognitive dissonance in which top-down models continue to place hope in the CCTS-technology by reducing its expected fixed and variable costs, and bottom-up researchers continue to count failed pilot projects.