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Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is a major concern of public health and agriculture in the Pannonian Biogeographical Region (PBR). Pollen monitoring started more than 30 years ago in Hungary. Since then, the Seasonal Pollen Index of this plant shows an increasing tendency. Ragweed pollen affects approximately 15-20 % of the population ; 93 % of them regularly use pollen information services. Allergic patients and doctors need information about the onset of the season to start the intake of preventive medication two weeks ahead of the appearance of symptoms (10 pollen/m3 /day). During the main season, the short-term (i.e. 3 days) ragweed pollen forecast is crucial –this information can be achieved by different methods. Season start: in the early period of the season, a calendar method is useful (it is a conservative, bell-shaped curve of the 7-day moving average of 10 years’ data). The positioning of the ragweed season to the start date is important for the calculation of a reliable forecast for the first weeks. Therefore, several attempts were made to forecast the start of the season, including already existing and new 29 methods. It was concluded that phenological observations provide the most appropriate input to forecast the start of the ragweed pollen season. Concerning the PRB, the season started 9 times out of the last 10 years in Hungary, most frequently (4 times) in Debrecen. Thus, phenological data were collected from this region weekly to enable a precise prediction of pollen seasons’ start in the last 3 years. In most of the years, the onset of pollen season fell within the same five-day period of 27-31 July, however, anomalies were also detected. Extremely early peaks of pollen concentrations were observed at several monitoring stations in Hungary in June 2017 and 2018, one month before the usual onset. During the nationwide, biweekly field surveys, early blooming A. artemisiifolia plants were found, mostly in North-East Hungary. These field observations matched the source areas identified by trajectory analyses. Main season: For the prediction of the short-term changes in the pollen concentration in the main season the Ragweed Pollen Alarm System (R-PAS) was elaborated with the international collaboration of 28 monitoring stations in 2017 to generate a forecast in the PBR. The most critical point in the routine operation of such a large pollen alarm system is the coordination of data updates. We experienced that appropriate forecast models can handle some delay in data transmission, i.e., 3-day lagged pollen data provide acceptable forecast results in R-PAS. On the other hand, 1- or 2-day lagged pollen data would require unnecessarily high operational costs vs. the added value. As a first version a neural network model was used, nowadays a source-based dispersal model is applied to provide hourly forecasts too. Season end: Further research is needed to forecast the end of the ragweed season, using a different approach due to the re- aerosolization of pollen grains.

The drivers of spatial variation in ragweed pollen concentrations, contributing to severe allergic rhinitis and asthma, are poorly quantified. We analysed the spatiotemporal variability in 16-year (1995–2010) annual total (66 stations) and annual total (2010) (162 stations) ragweed pollen counts and 8 independent variables (start, end and duration of the ragweed pollen season, maximum daily and calendar day of the maximum daily ragweed pollen counts, last frost day in spring, first frost day in fall and duration of the frost-free period) for Europe (16 years, 1995–2010) as a function of geographical coordinates. Then annual total pollen counts, annual daily peak pollen counts and date of this peak were regressed against frost-related variables, daily mean temperatures and daily precipitation amounts. To achieve this, we assembled the largest ragweed pollen data set to date for Europe. The dependence of the annual total ragweed pollen counts and the eight independent variables against geographical coordinates clearly distinguishes the three highly infected areas: the Pannonian Plain, Western Lombardy and the Rhône-Alpes region. All the eight variables are sensitive to longitude through its temperature dependence. They are also sensitive to altitude, due to the progressively colder climate with increasing altitude. Both annual total pollen counts and the maximum daily pollen counts depend on the start and the duration of the ragweed pollen season. However, no significant changes were detected in either the eight independent variables as a function of increasing latitude. This is probably due to a mixed climate induced by strong geomorphological inhomogeneities in Europe.

This report is the executive summary of the final report of the SINPHONIE (Schools Indoor Pollution and Health: Observatory Network in Europe) project. SINPHONIE was funded by the European Parliament and carried out under a contract with the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Health and Consumers (DG SANCO) (SANCO/2009/C4/04, contract SI2.570742). The SINPHONIE project established a scientific/technical network to act at the EU level with the long-term perspective of improving air quality in schools and kindergartens, thereby reducing the risk and burden of respiratory diseases among children and teachers potentially due to outdoor and indoor air pollution. At the same time, the project supports future policy actions by formulating guidelines, recommendations and risk management options for better air quality and associated health effects in schools., JRC.I.1-Chemical Assessment and Testing

This document is the final report of the SINPHONIE (Schools Indoor Pollution and Health: Observatory Network in Europe) project. SINPHONIE was funded by the European Parliament and carried out under a contract with the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Health and Consumers (DG SANCO) (SANCO/2009/C4/04, contract SI2.570742). The SINPHONIE project established a scientific/technical network to act at the EU level with the long-term perspective of improving air quality in schools and kindergartens, thereby reducing the risk and burden of respiratory diseases among children and teachers potentially due to outdoor and indoor air pollution. At the same time, the project supports future policy actions by formulating guidelines, recommendations and risk management options for better air quality and associated health effects in schools., JRC.I.1-Chemical Assessment and Testing

Background/Aims: According to the IPCC the rate of excess mortality due to the increased number of heat waves in relation to climate change can be predicted in the future in Europe. In this study w...

Background/Aims: In the Mediterranean areas of Europe, leishmanisasis is one of the most emerging vector-borne diseases. Members of genus Phlebotomus are the primary vectors of the genus Leishmania...

Aims: In the Mediterranean areas of Europe, leishmanisasis is one of the most emerging vector-borne diseases. Members of genus Phlebotomus are the primary vectors of the genus Leishmania. To track the human health effect of climate change it is a very important interdisciplinary question to study whether the climatic requirements and geographical distribution of the vectors of human pathogen organisms correlate with each other. Our study intended to explore the potential effects of ongoing climate change, in particular through a potential upward altitudinal and latitudinal shift of the distribution of the parasite Leishmania infantum, its vectors Phlebotomus ariasi, P. neglectus, P. perfiliewi, P. perniciosus, and P. tobbi, and some other sandfly species: P. papatasi, P. sergenti, and P. similis. Methods: By using a climate envelope modelling (CEM) method we modelled the current and future (2011-2070) potential distribution of 8 European sandfly species and L. infantum based on the current distribution using the REMO regional climate model. Results: We found that by the end of the 2060’s most parts of Western Europe can be colonized by sandfly species, mostly by P. ariasi and P. pernicosus. P. ariasi showed the greatest potential northward expansion. For all the studied vectors of L. infantum the entire Mediterranean Basin and South-Eastern Europe seemed to be suitable. L. infantum can affect the Eastern Mediterranean, without notable northward expansion. Our model resulted 1 to 2 months prolongation of the potentially active period of P. neglectus P. papatasi and P. perniciosus for the 2060’s in Southern Hungary. Conclusion: Our findings confirm the concerns that leishmanisais can become a real hazard for the major part of the European population to the end of the 21th century and the Carpathian Basin is a particularly vulnerable area.

Az ízeltlábúak által terjesztett fertőző betegségek egyre emelkedő mértékben jelentenek majd veszélyt Európa mérsékelt övi lakosságának egészségi állapotára nézve. A klímaváltozás következtében meghosszabbodó vegetációs időszak, és az emelkedő átlaghőmérséklet a már jelen lévő betegség (Pl. Lyme), és számos, a lakosság számára új, meleg égövi betegség megtelepedését, vagy újra megjelenését okozhatja, mint amilyen például a leishmaniasis vagy a malária. A jövőben nem csak a civil lakosság egészségi állapotát, de a hadsereg személyi állományának egészségét és a hadműveletek biztonságát is veszélyeztethetik a vektoriális megbetegedések. _____ Emerging vectorial diseases threaten the population of the temperate areas of Europe. Due to climate change the increasing seasonal mean temperatures and the prolongation of the potential activity period of arthropod vectorial organisms will enhance the importance of the tick-borne diseases (eg. Lyme disease) and will facilitate the expansion of new or re-emerging vectorial diseases, such as leishmaniasis or malaria. These serious vectorial diseases can cause notable hazard not only for citizens but for the personnels and may endanger the safety of the operations, too.

Mapping the distribution and abundance of alien plants is important in the process of understanding their invasive potential. It provides basic information that can be used in estimating their ecological preferences but also the success of eradication strategies. Mapping of vegetation is a time consuming task and especially problematic for annuals whose population distribution and abundance show year–to-year variability. Alternatives to this bottom-up approach are therefore highly needed when producing vegetation maps and inventories. The paper examines the potential of using the top-down approach for producing pollen source inventories, which employs spatial variations in annual airborne pollen counts to indicate the abundance of invasive species. The ragweed pollen source inventory over Vojvodina is presented here as an example. The degree in which the performance of the method is affected by spatial resolution is investigated.