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La fijación unilateral de los precios de referencia fiscal por parte de seis países miembros de la OPEP el 17 de octubre de 1973 fue uno de los acontecimientos económicos más cruciales en la historia petrolera y económica internacional. La teoría económica se vio obligada a concebir un constructo inédito como el de estanflación como representación conceptual del hecho económico (también inédito) de inflación acompañada por desempleo. Aquí se examinan dos interpretaciones rivales sobre ese acontecimiento y se explican los aciertos y desaciertos de los contenidos lógicos de dos teorías rivales (la microeconómica y de la de teoría de la renta) desde la epistemología poppereana. The unilateral fixing of fiscal reference prices by six OPEC member countries on October 17, 1973 was one of the most crucial economic developments in international oil and economic history. Economic theory was forced to conceive of an unprecedented construct such as stagflation as a conceptual representation of the economic fact (also unprecedent) of inflation accompanied by unemployment. Heretwo rival interpretations of this event are examined and the successes and failures of the logical contents of two rival theories (the microeconomic and the income theory) are explained from the Popperean epistemology. 53-78 fabioemv@gmail.com

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report - August 2022

Economic freedom indicators create a beneficial and suitable guide and a crucial reference for investors, policymakers, lenders, and market researchers worldwide. In light of these indicators, the economic freedom performances of countries can be determined. The Heritage Foundation annually releases a ranked list of the country based on their performance in terms of fourteen economic freedom criteria with equal weights through a simple aggregation approach. According to an average-based aggregator, equal weight of economic freedom criteria and calculating rank of countries cannot be a completely reliable approach. Thus, this work establishes a composite index system in the form of a decision support system that employs the method based on the removal effects of criteria (MEREC) and the double normalization-based multi-aggregation (DNMA) to specify the economic freedom levels of the OPEC countries. MEREC obtains the importance weights of indicators without the interference of any stakeholder or decision-makers. Afterward, DNMA, as a novel ranking multi-criteria method, is applied to sort countries based on their performance against all economic freedom criteria. This is the first attempt in the literature to calculate the index of economic freedom utilizing an integrated multi-criteria decision support model. Whereas “investment freedom” is the most significant indicator of economic freedom, the UAE is in the best position in terms of economic freedom among OPEC countries. A fourphased sensitivity control is also performed so as to verify the robustness and usefulness of the developed decision tool.

The membership structure matters to ensure a durable negotiating forum in an international organization. However, in July 2017, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, on behalf of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), requested Indonesia to reactivate its membership, which the country had suspended—for the second time—in November 2016. The first suspension was in January 2009—annulled in January 2016. The Government of Indonesia (GoI) then welcomed the invitation. This study aims to analyze OPEC’s membership scheme, which has given leeway to its members to send a request like the above. In-depth interviews were conducted with Indonesia’s representatives in OPEC to capture the organization’s internal condition. By analyzing the organization’s membership dynamics, we can identify three reasons behind Indonesia’s invitation to rejoin. The first is because OPEC’s country members need Indonesia’s presence in negotiations as they consider Indonesia neutral. Second, OPEC needs a country with a different attribute to strengthen the organization’s image of diversity on the international stage. The third reason is the historical elements. OPEC strives to maintain historically good relations with the GoI as the country has contributed to the organization’s development. For those reasons, an international organization might reinvite its former member to join the group.

The article deals with the fundamental and conjuncture factors of the oil market equilibrium. The purpose of the study is to identify new economic indicators that affect the global pricing model in the oil market, and determine the effectiveness of the existing cartel agreement. The structure of net energy consumption, as well as features of demand for energy resources by regions of the world, is presented in the article. The study provides a comprehensive statistical analysis of the dynamics of changes in oil prices and production indicators of the largest oil producing countries in the world. The analysis highlights the factors of the oil market stabilization from the demand and supply side: production, technological and price factors. Relative indicators, such as the level of technology development and drilling efficiency in the respective segments, were found to have the greatest impact on the stability of energy prices, and long-term price stabilization is possible only if the US oil industry participates in OPEC+ agreement.

Commodity markets are integral to the global economy. Understanding what drives developments of these markets is critical to the design of policy frameworks that facilitate the economic objectives of sustainable growth, inflation stability, poverty reduction, food security, and the mitigation of climate change. This study is the first comprehensive analysis examining market and policy developments for all commodity groups, including energy, metals, and agriculture, over the past century. It finds that, while the quantity of commodities consumed has risen enormously, driven by population and income growth, the relative importance of commodities has shifted over time, as technological innovation created new uses for some materials and facilitated substitution among commodities. The study also shows that commodity markets are heterogeneous in terms of their drivers, price behavior, and macroeconomic impact on emerging markets and developing economies, and that the relationship between economic growth and commodity demand varies widely across countries, depending on their stage of economic development. Policy frameworks that enable countercyclical macroeconomic responses have become increasingly common—and beneficial. Other policy tools have had mixed outcomes.

The mission of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its Member Countries and ensure the stabilization of oil markets in order to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, a steady income to producers and a fair return on capital for those investing in the petroleum industry. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a permanent, intergovernmental Organization, created at the Baghdad Conference on September 10–14, 1960, by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. OPEC's objective is to co-ordinate and unify petroleum policies among Member Countries, in order to secure fair and stable prices for petroleum producers; an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consuming nations; and a fair return on capital to those investing in the industry.

Following the end of unsuccessful negotiations in March 2020 at OPEC headquarters in Vienna regarding oil production cuts, in the early March in Vienna (headquarters of OPEC), Russia and Saudi Arabia de-facto launched a prise war that resulted in a significant drop in oil prices (just as the COVID pandemic caused a concomitant drop in demand for oil), which in turn led to earthquake on the global oil market. As a result, prices of oil that plays an essential role for economies of both countries have plummeted to record lows no seen in two decades. While suffering economic losses, both countries, nevertheless, maintain an assertive posture and seem willing to pursue this policy even further. This paper examines the geopolitical logic of the Russian side – a country that has been placed under western economic sanctions since 2014 as a result of its illegal annexation of Crimea and destabilizing steps via proxy forces in the Southeastern Ukraine – and consequences thereof, particularly for Canada, as the price of Western Canada Select reached historic lows amidst a COVID-19 induced economic contraction., The School of Public Policy Publications, Vol. 13 (2020)

Целью статьи является определение роли и значения Ирака в обеспечении ресурсного потенциала стран-экспортеров нефти ОПЕК в 2019 и 2020 годах. Экономика Ирака обладает значительным потенциалом в плане долгосрочного развития, поскольку национальная ресурсная база способна сформировать платформу для создания внутренних инвестиционных программ и накопления человеческого капитала. Выявленными существенными проблемами иракской экономики являются ее низкая диверсифицированной и, следовательно, высокий уровень зависимости от доходов нефтегазового сектора. Проведенный анализ показал, что более 90 % всех доходов государства, которые направляются на выплату заработной платы и прочие текущие расходы, а также около 40 % валового внутреннего продукта приходятся на экспортную выручку от нефтегазового сектора. При этом в структуре выручки преобладает сырая нефть, на которую приходится более 75% всех экспортных доходов. The purpose of the article is to determine the role and importance of Iraq in providing the resource potential of OPEC oil exporting countries in 2019 and 2020. The Iraqi economy has significant potential for long-term development, as the national resource base is able to form a platform for the creation of domestic investment programs and the accumulation of human capital. The identified significant problems of the Iraqi economy are its low diversification and, consequently, a high level of dependence on the income of the oil and gas sector. The analysis showed that more than 90% of all state revenues, which are directed to pay wages and other current expenses, as well as about 40% of the gross domestic product, come from export earnings from the oil and gas sector. At the same time, crude oil dominates in the revenue structure, accounting for more than 75% of all export earnings.

Современная мировая экономика, функционирующая в условиях глобального энергетического кризиса, в значительной степени развивается под влиянием динамики мировых цен на энергоносители. В процессе исследования использован системный и аналитический методы, метод обобщения данных международных и российских обзоров, данных Росстата и Министерства энергетики Российской Федерации. Выявлены и обоснованы основные тенденции современного развития мирового рынка нефти на основе данных международных обзоров соглашений ОПЕК и ОПЕК+. Рассмотрены факторы, влияющие на динамику цен и объёмов добычи энергоресурсов в настоящее время. Определена динамика квот на добычу нефти по странам мира, а также проанализированы тенденции в сфере ценообразования с участием соглашений ОПЕК и ОПЕК+, проблемы влияния современного коронакризиса на состояние спроса на энергоносители. Выполнен анализ современного состояния и динамики мирового рынка нефти под влиянием санкционной политики со стороны развитых стран. Сформулированы выводы относительно перспектив дальнейшего развития мирового рынка энергоресурсов, а также динамики цен на ближайшую перспективу., Introduction.Today, the development of the world economy operating in the context of the global energy crisis is significantly affected by the dynamics of world energy prices. The purpose of the article is to provide a scientific analysis of the current pricing policy in the global energy market and identify the main trends in the transformation of the oil market under the sanctions policy. Methods.The study used the systemic and analytical methods, the method of data integration from international and Russian reviews, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation. Results. The key trends in the modern development of the world oil market were identified and substantiated based on the data from international reviews of the OPEC and OPEC+ agreements. The study showed that price setting in the oil market is rather ambiguous, and at different times it depends on various factors. Initially, in the early 40s of the 20thcentury, the price of the energy resource was determined in accordance with the cost-plus principle, which means summing up the price with a markup to cover the costs. With the beginning of its vigorous activities, OPEC used the netback pricing principle, according to which the market price of oil was calculated by subtracting the costs of its transportation from the places of production. Currently, there is a single clear relation between the OPEC basket price and the GDP of countries. The impact of factors unrelated to OPEC is growing, among which are, first of all, the intensification of the sanctions policy by developed countries, the increased influence of the futures market, political manipulation in the oil market, as well as the increase in the intermediary interest rates in the resale of oil products and taxation on the final product. Conclusions. The scientific analysis shows that the most significant factors influencing the price formation in the world oil market include the following: the factor of economic policy; the factor of scientific and technical progress; the current condition and forecast of proven and potential oil reserves; the actual state and the pace of development of the world economy, primarily the GDP growth rate. Additionally, institutional changes in the oil sector, as well as changes in oil legislation, are of great importance., ВЕСТНИК ПОВОЛЖСКОГО ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОГО ТЕХНОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО УНИВЕРСИТЕТА. СЕРИЯ: ЭКОНОМИКА И УПРАВЛЕНИЕ, Выпуск 1 (53) 2022, Pages 66-75

This paper utilises commodity-specific news sentiment data on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) collected from Thomson Reuters News Analytics in the period 2003-2014 and examines the impact of foreign news sentiment on the financial performance of domestic firms in the energy sector. We find that in the US market, negative news on OPEC positively influences the stock returns of the US-listed firms. The effects of negative news sentiment on OPEC dominate our results. These results are robust in different subsectors of the oil and gas industry and in alternative specifications of oil prices and market volatility. We show that the effect is conditional on market risks and the types of news announcements made. The effect from negative news is stronger in periods of higher reserves, exports and production. However, at times of low consumer confidence and high imports, a positive OPEC news announcement negatively influences a US-listed energy firm’s stock return. In the context of hedging and risk mitigation, our findings have important policy implications for investors and traders in the energy sector. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

This paper proposes the use of sustainable energy systems based on solar and biomass technologies to provide solutions to utility challenges in Nigeria and acute water shortage both in rural and urban areas of that country. The paper highlights the paradoxes of oil-rich Nigeria and the stark reality of social infrastructure deprivations in that country. Perennial power outages over many years have translated to the absence of or poorly-developed basic social infrastructures in Nigeria. The consequences of this lack have been an increase in abject poverty in rural and urban communities as well as the erosion of social order and threats to citizen and their property. This paper proposes the adaptation of two emerging technologies for building sustainable energy systems and the development of decentralized and sustainable energy sources as catalyst for much-needed social infrastructure development through the creation of Renewable Energy Business Incubators, creative lending strategies, NGO partnerships and shifting energy-distribution responsibilities. These changes will stimulate grassroots economies in the country, develop large quantities of much needed clean water, maintain acceptable standards of sanitation and improve the health and wellbeing of Nigerian communities. The proposed strategies are specific to the Nigerian context; however, the authors suggest that the same or similar strategies may provide energy and social infrastructure development solutions to other developing countries as well. The economic and social opportunities that sustainable energy systems can bring are significant attractions for various private and federal organizations in Nigeria to invest aggressively in the new systems.

This chapter investigates the concept of ‘energy security’, understood as the ‘uninterrupted availability of energy resources at an affordable price’. Importantly, according to this definition, the ‘availability’ of energy resources is measured against existing energy demand, and threats to energy security are therefore threats to the supply of enough energy to meet existing energy demand. Energy supply depends upon both domestic and international factors which are so interconnected that it is difficult to distinguish where one starts and the other ends. What is clear, however, is that international law plays a fundamental role in addressing many threats to energy security. The chapter looks at existing threats to energy security and the international legal frameworks that have been established in response. The challenges to energy security include an exponential increase in world energy demand, shortages of national oil and gas deposits, the need to reduce dependence on fossil fuel production in order to counteract climate change, as well as risks of geopolitical instability. The chapter then focuses on the mechanisms aimed to ensure that the flow of energy remains uninterrupted and at an affordable price, as well as on those mechanisms aimed at increasing access to energy resources.

В статье рассматриваются нефтяные шоки 21 века и меры, предпринимаемые Организацией стран-экспортеров нефти (ОПЕК) по их стабилизации. Автором рассмотрены причины падения цен на нефть и анализируются факторы, повлиявшие на стабилизацию цен на нефть. Отмечается, что за последние годы влияние ОПЕК на мировой нефтяной рынок несколько снизилось, что было обусловлено ростом добычи нефти в таких странах, как США, Россия, Канада, Бразилия и Китай. По мнению автора, страны, добывающие и экспортирующие нефть будут продолжать попытки стабилизации высоких цен на нефть путем снижения объемов добычи, проведения переговоров и другими мерами посредством реализации Соглашения ОПЕК++.

В статье проведен анализ динамики мировых цен на нефть. Это позволит выявить основные факторы, влияющие на конъюнктуру мирового рынка нефти, а также причины возникновения «нефтяных шоков». На сегодняшний день ситуация на нефтяных рынках отражает сложный и противоречивый характер эволюции глобальной энергетической отрасли. Несмотря на огромные усилия, направленные на развитие альтернативных источников энергии, ископаемые виды топлива, нефть и природный газ, остаются главными составляющими мирового энергопотребления, в связи с чем изучение данного рынка становится особенно важным., The paper analyzes the dynamics of world oil prices. This will allow us to identify the main factors affecting the conjuncture of the world oil market, as well as the causes of "oil shocks". Today, the situation on the oil markets reflects the complex and contradictory nature of the evolution of the global energy industry. Despite the huge efforts aimed at the development of alternative energy sources, fossil fuels, oil and natural gas remain the main components of global energy consumption, and therefore the study of this market becomes especially important., Вестник научной мысли, Выпуск 5 2021, Pages 20-28

We develop a model of oligopolistic competition under imperfect monitoring and dynamic observable demand. Efficient symmetric equilibria feature disciplined cooperative regimes interrupted by rare but severe price wars. The model predicts that the frequency, duration, and supply schedule associated with each regime may persistently deviate from average behavior. We find evidence for the theoretical predictions of our model in historical Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) output using a Markov-switching Bayesian vector autoregressive model of the global oil market. The evidence suggests that conventional models without regime-switching of oil supply underestimates the linkages between quantities supplied and oil prices.

В статье анализируется влияние Covid-19 на инвестиции в энергетический сектор в международном разрезе. Инвестиционные расходы являются не только весомой составляющей совокупного объема выпуска продукции, но и практически самой динамичной, что находит отражение на колебаниях экономической активности. Пандемия серьезно повлияла на снижение объемов инвестиций всех мировых нефтегазовых компаний на фоне сокращения спроса на углеводороды, главным образом на нефть., The article analyzes the impact of Covid-19 on investment in the energy sector in the international context. Investment expenditures are not only a significant component of total output, but also almost the most dynamic, which is reflected in the fluctuations in economic activity. The pandemic has seriously affected the decline in investment volumes of all global oil and gas companies against the background of reduced demand for hydrocarbons, mainly oil., Экономика и управление: научно-практический журнал, Выпуск 2 (158) 2021

The crucial position that Saudi Arabia has in global oil markets cannot be overstated. In 2019 its proven crude oil reserves stood at 297.6 billion barrels, representing 17 per cent of the world’s total. In the same year Saudi Arabia produced 11.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude, blended, and unblended condensates, and natural gas liquids. The country produces a wide array of crudes, ranging from Arab Super Light all the way to Arabian Heavy. Despite rising domestic demand in the past few decades, Saudi Arabia exports the bulk of its crude production and thus has a dominant position in international trade. It is the only country that has an official policy of maintaining spare capacity that can be utilized within a relatively short time at a low cost. Saudi Arabia’s reserves are also among the cheapest in the world to find, develop, and produce. In contrast to some neighbouring countries and other OPEC members, such as Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Venezuela, Saudi Arabia has not experienced conflict or political instability and has not been subject to international sanctions. It has thus been able to invest heavily in its energy sector and integrate the upstream sector with refining and downstream assets, both in the kingdom and overseas. The oil and gas sectors are also heavily integrated, given the large volumes of associated gas produced. Saudi Arabia also has also a dominant position in OPEC and historically the organization’s key decisions have been shaped by the kingdom, either those related to cutting output to balance the market or increasing output to offset output disruption within OPEC and elsewhere. Although Saudi Arabia’s output has not been impacted by political or military shocks it has nonetheless been highly variable reflecting the kingdom’s flexibility to increase and decrease output in response to shocks. Given its size and large margins, the oil sector also plays a key role in the Saudi economy. Despite new revenue sources, the government remains highly reliant on oil revenues for its current and capital spending. Also, government spending is a key driver of growth in non-oil and private-sector activity through infrastructure investment, public sector wage bills, and social transfers. All the aforementioned features, from the size of the kingdom’s reserve base and production to the high reliance of government finances on oil revenues, have shaped Saudi oil policy choices and its relations with other producers over the years. The main purpose of this paper is to analyse a range of these policy choices and relations, their determinants, and the evolving role of the oil sector in the context of an energy transition, the speed of which remains highly uncertain and its impact uneven across the globe.

The performance of the Iraqi oil sector was favorable despite the challenges of the security situation in June 2014. Estimates of the oil sector’s share in the real GDP in Iraq rose to 53% in a year 2014, up from 50% a year earlier. Iraq's production reached 11.3 million barrels per day of crude oil in 2014 compared to produc-tion of 98.2 million barrels per day in 2013, and oil exports also increased to reach 52.2 million barrels per day, up from 39.2 million barrels per day.

We study the optimal oil extraction strategy and the value of an oil field using a multiple real option approach. The numerical method is flexible enough to solve a model with several state variables, to discuss the effect of risk aversion, and to take into account uncertainty in the size of reserves. Optimal extraction in the baseline model is found to be volatile. If the oil producer is risk averse, production is more stable, but spare capacity is much higher than what is typically observed. We show that decisions are very sensitive to expectations on the equilibrium oil price using a mean reverting model of the oil price where the equilibrium price is also a random variable. Oil production was cut during the 2008–2009 crisis, and we find that the cut in production was larger for OPEC, for countries facing a lower discount rate, as predicted by the model, and for countries whose governments’ finances are less dependent on oil revenues. However, the net present value of a country’s oil reserves would be increased significantly (by 100 percent, in the most extreme case) if production was cut completely when prices fall below the country's threshold price. If several producers were to adopt such strategies, world oil prices would be higher but more stable.

The paper endeavours to explore and analyse some critical issues in the oil and gas market that cropped up around the spread of COVID-19 and tries to identify the key drivers and triggers pertaining therewith. The spread of the first wave that began in March 2020 is crucial because of the global economic downturn that ensued due to lockdown and imposed restrictions coupled with a protracted oil price war that began between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The paper tries to address some key research questions to understand the triggers and drivers around the pandemic. These are: (1) whether the behaviour of OPEC or its key players around the pandemic could be considered uniquely different; (2) what could the triggers be for the increased volatilities that cropped up in both physical and financial markets during the pandemic; (3) what was really different about the oil market crisis around the pandemic that transformed it to an unprecedented storage crisis; (4) what really went wrong with the much-hyped U.S. shale boom during the pandemic that led to the bankruptcy of several oil and gas companies, followed by huge job losses. The paper relies on a structured review of relevant secondary literature to address these exploratory questions and builds upon a retrospective rumination on the world oil market from 1960 to 2020. This is complemented by an analysis of supporting data and evidence obtained from various sources. Considering the intertwining of oil and financial markets around the pandemic, the lessons and findings from the paper would not only be highly relevant for policymakers and stakeholders in the oil and gas sector but would be equally relevant for those in the financial markets.

More than any other nations, the crude oil-exporting countries and especially the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are likely to experience a more difficult energy-transitioning regime because of the economies' high dependence on crude oil revenue. By using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models (ARDL) approach, this study examines the impact of the energy transition albeit from conventional to clean energy on carbon emissions in 11 members of the OPEC. While engaging the aforementioned objective, the study further examined the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis amidst urbanization drive among the countries. The result from the long-run estimates shows that fossil fuel utilization exerts a positively significant on environmental degradation in the selected countries, while the observed negative impact of renewable energy utilization and urbanization on carbon dioxide emission (CO2) was insignificant in both the short and long run. The implication is that the current energy transition policy of the OPEC states is not sufficient at driving the states' environmental sustainability agenda. In addition, the EKC was not valid in the panel of the OPEC countries for the period of study, rather a U-shaped relation is established between income level and environmental degradation. Thus, this further posits that there is a setback in the push for environmental quality especially when there is an improvement in economic well-being through income growth in the OPEC states. Moreover, findings from the panel causality test show that there is no causality running from both fossil fuel and renewable energy consumption to the income level among the countries. On the contrary, a uni-directional causality was obtained from income level to renewable energy consumption, while urbanization strongly Granger causes fossil fuel use and CO2 emissions among the countries. As such, it is concluded that energy conservation policies can be implemented to reduce extreme dependence on fossil fuel use with little or no detrimental consequences, thus positioning the countries for economic prosperity in a sustainable environment.

To what extent do geopolitical tensions, supply disturbances, and unexpected news in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and major oil-producer countries affect the oil price? Are oil price forecasters aware of these tensions? Do these tensions affect forecasters’ consensus when making their predictions? Is there a difference between news coming from OPEC countries versus other major oil exporters? In this article, we analyse the influence of geopolitical tensions, news, and events in major oil producers on the Brent oil price, its forecasts, and the dispersion of those forecasts. We empirically test these hypotheses by introducing and making use of a unique media-based measure of geopolitical tensions accounting for supply crunches and expansions for the 2001-12 period, by means of Granger causality. We found evidence suggesting that overall geopolitical tensions affect the current level of oil price, its forecasts, and the dispersion of those forecasts. More remarkably, when separating between OPEC and non-OPEC news, we found that the former affect oil price forecasts and its consensus, and at the same time, the current oil price determine oil-based news on OPEC countries. Moreover, non-OPEC news affect the current and future oil price level and neither the forecast nor the dispersion of those forecasts its affected by the level. All these results imply that geopolitical tensions in a broader sense affect oil prices, and OPEC news should be read jointly with other geopolitical tensions as oil price drivers -and not as an isolated news generator affecting oil prices. This weakens the hypothesis of OPEC as a price setter in the global oil market whose behaviour, in turn, seems a matter for forecasters. These results are important suggesting that, in order to keep track of oil price dynamics, one needs to account for a more general context of geopolitical tensions beyond OPEC countries, relying on signals and externalities that are not necessarily based on economic rationale.

Because of the crucial implications of the market power of OPEC, the aim of this paper was to investigate the oil asymmetric market reactions, such as the price and risk reactions, to OPEC’s announcements. Specifically, this paper first explored the oil price reactions to OPEC’s announcements and their heterogeneity to depict the directional role of OPEC based on event study methodology. Furthermore, this paper analyzed the oil risk reactions in the framework of a linear model. Our findings reveal several key results. The oil price reactions to OPEC production decisions behave quite heterogeneously in three kinds of decisions. Specifically, the reaction to announcements of a production increase shows an invert “U” shape, whereas there is a linear effect of cut announcements. Otherwise, when a maintain decision is announced, the oil prices have no obvious change over the sample period. Additionally, the oil risk reactions to OPEC’s announcements are heavily related to the interaction item between OPEC decisions and its production over full sample periods. Furthermore, OPEC’s role in promoting stability in crude oil markets by changing its production shows a heterogeneous condition after global financial crisis.

The main aim of this dissertation is to explore and discover the main crude price drivers. While oil is seen as a commodity, its market structure is much more complex. It is not a commodity which can be produced in abundance from each country, even if in our era there are multiple sources other than the conventional ones. As a result, the countries are separated into producers and consumers with many new producers to claim their market share. Along with the oil price determinants, we try to best describe the role and strategy of major producers like those of Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation, and then focus on OPEC. Our main result is that demand is the main determinant , something which implies lack of substitution. However, shale production and inventories play a deflationary role but in a much lesser way than what is widely conceived. Financial speculation plays a contributory role to market’s volatility. However, pricing is fundamentally explained. On the contrary, negative shocks in supply are not possible since we had incidents like the surge of the Islamic State which did not cause disruptions. Predominantly, the glut could prevail due to negative demand shocks like recessions or epidemics like the COVID. Further, it is proposed that consumers and producers have common interest to keep prices at reasonable levels and dialogue could be achieved. As for the linkage between the natural gas and oil markets, we find strong evidence of market decoupling in several markets. In the US (Henry Hub), UK (National Balancing Point or NBP) and continental Europe (Title Transfer Facility or TTF in Netherlands) the natural gas market is a completely separate market. And even when there are linkages, these are only transient. However, in the Japanese-Korean market or Japan Korea Marker (JKM), when the nuclear power plants were turned off after the Fukushima accident, oil drove the LNG prices. We consider the Saudi Arabia as the swing producer, which covers most of the demand increases, but leaves space to the others. Saudi Arabia does not want to keep prices at extreme levels as this would harm future demand. In addition, Saudi Arabia keeps the same production strategy irrespectively of the time-horizon, prices and inventories. Especially, in the short-run the major producer tries to make inventories less cost effective. In addition, the Russian Federation is not solely dependent on oil prices. The Russian GDP is more dependent on state expenditure. However, the oil dependence might come from the relationship between the state expenditure and GDP. We find that there is a level of dependency but not Dutch disease. We also find that OPEC production can deflate prices, however, OECD production is more significant in the long-run. On the contrary, OPEC’s production has the same influence on the short-run, while OECD has insignificant impact. The last shows the production and export bottlenecks OECD countries face. Finally, OPEC continues to be capable of sending strong signals to the market. Its production profile can prevent market failures. Further, it can be transformed into a forum between producers and consumers. Many OPEC countries could help in drafting a manual of good practice since they are in their effort to diversify their economy. Last, oil price volatility is considered as the main threat for both consumers and producers.

For decades, oil has been at the centre of international policy attention, but it is also a reliable source of wealth and political strength. The emergence of oil, which displaced coal from the worlds leading energy mix, has shaped a new energy market concept. This concept is based on the possession of hydrocarbon resources by producing countries, which automatically benefit not only the commodity but also the world market.

На сегодняшний день обстановка в сфере нефтяной отрасли остается неустойчивой и требует совершенствования. В связи с чем, статье рассматриваются внешние факторы, влияющие на развитие нефтяных компаний, которые необходимо принимать во внимание при формировании стратегии стабильного развития компании. Автором при формировании стратегии устойчивого развития нефтяных компаний предлагается использовать подход, который разделяет внешнеэкономические факторы на: стратегические, операционные, финансовые и правовые.

В настоящее время, происходят серьезные экономические потрясения, поэтому актуальными являются исследования, которые делают попытки объяснить взаимное влияние экономических процессов, влияние макроэкономических показателей друг на друга, в особенности на валовый внутренний продукт (ВВП). Это связанно с тем, что именно темп прироста ВВП очень часто является основой для оценки социально-экономического развития региона и страны. Данное исследование посвящено вопросу влияния объемов добычи нефти на ВВП РФ. В работе исследуется природа временных рядов добычи сырой нефти и ВВП, а также их взаимное влияние., At present, serious economic shocks are occurring, therefore studies that make attempts to explain the mutual influence of economic processes, the influence of macroeconomic indicators on each other, especially on gross domestic product (GDP), are relevant. This is due to the fact that it is the GDP growth rate that very often is the basis for assessing the socio-economic development of a region and a country. This study focuses on the impact of oil production on Russia's GDP. The paper investigates the nature of the time series of crude oil production and GDP, as well as their mutual influence., Международный научно-исследовательский журнал, Выпуск 5 (95) 2020

In a simplified theoretical framework we model the strategic interactions between OPEC and non-OPEC producers and the implications for the global oil market. Depending on market conditions, OPEC may find it optimal to act either as a monopolist on the residual demand curve, to move supply in-tandem with non-OPEC, or to offset changes in non-OPEC supply. We evaluate the implications of the model through a Structural Vector Auto Regression (VAR) that separates non-OPEC and OPEC production and allows OPEC to respond to supply increases in non-OPEC countries. This is done by either increasing production (Market Share Targeting) or by reducing it (Price Targeting). We find that Price Targeting shocks absorb half of the uctuations in oil prices, which have left unexplained by a simpler model (where strategic interactions are not taken into account). Price Targeting shocks, ignored by previous studies, explain around 10 percent of oil price uctuations and are particularly relevant in the commodity price boom of the 2000s. We confirm that the fall in oil prices at the end of 2014 was triggered by an attempt of OPEC to regain market shares. We also find the OPEC elasticity of supply three times as high as that of non-OPEC producers.

The recent crude oil production and price wars have revived the debate on production restrictions as instruments for crude oil price stabilization. This debate is related to the broader attempt at crafting appropriate regulations for trade in energy goods. While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC+ countries rely on production restrictions to ensure favourable crude oil prices, this approach raises critical questions in terms of its compliance with World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreements. Answers to these questions are important in understanding the tradability of crude oil in situ, securing global crude oil supply, fine-tuning the legal framework for cross-border oil and gas pipelines, regulating oil consumption subsidies and keeping the environmental conservation discourse on track. This article explores answers to these questions.

Нефть — один из наиболее важных ресурсов в современном мире, она является основным топливом, и ее стоимость оказывает непосредственное влияние на глобальную среду обитания и нашу экономику. Одной из актуальных проблем в нефтяной промышленности в современной России является проблема нестабильности цен на нефть. Она влечет за собой неустойчивость в развитии нефтяной промышленности России, что, в свою очередь, негативно влияет на многие экономические и социальные процессы в стране. Цель данного исследования — обоснование мероприятий, способствующих сглаживанию эффекта турбулентности цен на нефть, которые позволят эффективно и устойчиво функционировать нефтяной промышленности. Проанализированы основные показатели нефтяной промышленности в России, проведено сопоставление с аналогичными мировыми показателями. Представлены основные результаты анализа функционирования компаний нефтегазовой отрасли в современных условиях развития национальной экономики. По состоянию на 2018 г. компаниями-лидерами по добыче нефти в нефтегазовом секторе являются: «Роснефть» (197,2 млн т, прирост 4,5 %), «Лукойл» (82,1 млн т, прирост 0,37 %), «Сургутнефтегаз» (60,9 млн т, прирост 0,66 %), «Газпромнефть» (39,5 млн т, прирост 0 %), «Татнефть» (29,6 млн т, прирост 2,42 %). По итогам 2018 г. доля нефтегазовых доходов в федеральный бюджет Российской Федерации составила 46,4 % (темп прироста по сравнению с предыдущим годом составил 17,1 %). Отмечается, что в условиях турбулентности цен на нефть перед отечественными предприятиями нефтяной промышленности стоит непростая задача сгладить негативные последствия и сформировать мероприятия, которые позволят им эффективно и устойчиво функционировать. Сформулированы принципы устойчивого развития предприятий нефтяной промышленности, которые позволяют обеспечить равновесие между природно-экономическим и социально-экономическим развитием, а также свести к минимуму негативные последствия турбулентности цен на нефть., Oil is one of the most important resources in the modern world, it is the main fuel, and its cost has a direct impact on the global environment and our economy. One of the most pressing problems in the oil industry in modern Russia is the problem of instability of oil prices. It leads to instability in development of the Russian oil industry, which in turn negatively affects many economic and social processes in the country. The purpose of this study is to justify measures that help smoothing the effect of oil price turbulence, which will allow the oil industry to function effectively and sustainably. The main indicators of the oil industry in Russia are analyzed and compared with the similar global indicators. The main results of the analysis of functioning of the oil and gas companies in the modern conditions of the national economy development are presented. As of 2018, the leading oil production companies in the oil and gas sector are: Rosneft (197.2 million tons, an increase of 4.5 %), LUKOIL (82.1 million tons, an increase of 0.37 %), Surgutneftegaz (60.9 million tons, an increase of 0.66 %), Gazpromneft (39.5 million tons, an increase of 0 %), Tatneft (29.6 million tons, an increase of 2.42 %). At the end of 2018, the share of oil and gas revenues in the Federal budget of the Russian Federation was 46.4 % (the growth rate compared to the previous year was 17.1 %). It is noted that in the conditions of turbulence in oil prices, domestic oil industry enterprises face a difficult task to smooth out the negative consequences and form measures that will allow them to function effectively and sustainably. The principles of sustainable development of oil industry enterprises are formulated, which allow ensuring a balance between natural-economic and socio-economic development, as well as to minimize the negative consequences of oil price turbulence., Бизнес. Образование. Право, Выпуск 3 (52) 2020

Mit Russlands Ablehnung weiterer Förderkürzungen und der darauffolgenden Ankün­digung Saudi-Arabiens, die eigene Ölproduktion hochzufahren, ist Anfang März ein massiver Preisverfall auf dem internationalen Ölmarkt eingetreten. Während Saudi-Arabien mit niedrigen Preisen seine Marktanteile ausbauen will, ist die Strategie Russlands keineswegs eindeutig. Moskau will zwar an seiner Förderquote festhalten, hat aber auch kein Interesse an einer ausgedehnten Preisschlacht. Ob Saudi-Arabien mit seiner Eskalation Erfolg hat oder sich Russlands kompromissloses Auftreten aus­zahlen wird, hängt nicht nur vom Durchhaltevermögen der beiden Länder ab. Ent­scheidend sind auch die Entwicklung der Ölnachfrage und die Anpassungsreaktionen anderer Ölförderer, insbesondere der US-amerikanischen Fracking-Industrie. (Autorenreferat)

Целью данной статьи является анализ экономических событий, произошедших в конце 2019 начале 2020 годов, а именно разразившаяся пандемия Covid-19, а также внезапно возникшие проблемы с подписанием очередного договора ОПЕК+ которые оказали непосредственное серьезное влияние на экономики многих государств, и очень серьезно ударили по экономике России .В ходе исследования проведен анализ состояния отдельных секторов и элементов экономики России в настоящее время, и в динамике последних нескольких лет. Рассмотрены и проанализированы политические и экономические стороны обозначенной проблемы. Авторами сделаны выводы о влиянии недавней разрушительной пандемии и разрыва нефтяной сделки на некоторые, наиболее уязвимые и важные для экономического развития, сферы экономики, в том числе на банковскую. А также выдвинуты прогнозы о возможном развитии ситуации.The purpose of this article is to analyze the economic events that occurred in late 2019 early 2020, namely the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as sudden problems with the signing of the next OPEC + agreement that had a direct serious impact on the economies of many countries, and it hit very seriously on the Russian economy. The study analyzes the state of individual sectors and elements of the Russian economy at present, and in the dynamics of the past few years. The political and economic aspects of the indicated problem are considered and analyzed. The authors draw conclusions about the impact of the recent devastating pandemic and the breakdown of the oil deal on some of the most vulnerable and important sectors of the economy for economic development, including banking. And also predictions about the possible development of the situation are put forward

В статье рассматриваются этапы формирования, становления и развития Организации стран-экспортеров нефти (ОПЕК) в XX веке. Предпосылками создания ОПЕК стали: распад колониальной системы, получение независимости будущими странами-членами ОПЕК, желание нефтедобывающих государств обеспечить суверенитет над собственными энергетическими богатствами. В исследовании анализируется влияние факторов, которые привели в отдельные периоды времени либо к росту, либо к падению мировых цен на нефть. Автором в работе перечислены такие факторы, повлиявшие на мировой энергетический рынок, как военные конфликты, эмбарго, разрозненность интересов участников ОПЕК, появление новых стран-лидеров мировой экономики. В исследовании подчеркивается, что к концу XX века ОПЕК превратилась в ключевого игрока мирового энергетического рынка, активно влияющего на мировую ценe на нефть.

Olje – den globale livsnerven, er bærebjelken til det moderne samfunnet. Medlemslandene i Organisasjonen av oljeeksporterende land (OPEC), kontrollerer i dag majoriteten av påviste oljeressurser, noe som har gitt organisasjonen stor internasjonal påvirkningskraft. Ved å koordinere medlemslandenes oljepolitikk, ønsker OPEC å stabilisere oljemarkedet med sikte på å eliminere skadelige og unødvendige svingninger. Dette skal igjen sikre en jevn og forutsigbar inntekt til oljeprodusentene. Det konvensjonelle virkemiddelet OPEC tar i bruk for å påvirke oljemarkedet er å tildele medlemslandene individuelle produksjonskvoter. Formelt har organisasjonen 13 medlemsland. I desember 2016 inngikk imidlertid organisasjonen et samarbeid med ytterligere 11 oljeeksporterende land, hvorav Russland, Mexico og Kazakhstan er blant de største. Denne studien undersøker hvordan denne utvidelsen har påvirket OPEC-samarbeidet. For studien er følgende problemstilling formulert: Hvilken effekt har det utvidete OPEC-samarbeidet hatt på etterlevelsen av produksjonskvotene blant organisasjonens medlemmer? Antagelser fra klassisk byrdefordelingsteori og spillteori tilsier at karakteristika som aktørenes størrelse og tålmodighet påvirker hvordan et samarbeid arter seg. Disse antagelsene har jeg undersøkt ved hjelp av longitudinelle data fra US Energy Information Administration (EIA) og oversikt over produksjonskvoter fra OPECs årlige bulletenger (Annual Statistical Bulletin). Ved hjelp av disse dataene har jeg også undersøkt hvorvidt det utvidete OPEC-samarbeidet har ført til økt eller redusert etterlevelse blant medlemslandene. Ved å anvende kvantitative analyseteknikker har jeg funnet begrenset støtte for at det er en gjennomgående sammenheng mellom etterlevelse av produksjonskvoter og størrelses- og tålmodighetsindikatorene som benyttes. Analysen, supplert med teoretiske og empiriske betraktninger, har imidlertid vist at organisasjonens hegemon Saudi-Arabia, er mer tilbøyelige til å overholde forpliktelser enn øvrige medlemmer, og at landet tidvis forfølger en tit-for-tat produksjonsstrategi, som vekselsvis disiplinerer og belønner de øvrige medlemslandene. Undersøkelsene indikerer også at medlemslandene har fått større tiltro til produksjonskvotenes effektivitet under OPEC-pluss, da de i større grad enn tidligere overholder sine forpliktelser. Studiens funn peker i retning av at jo flere aktører som deltar i frembringelsen av et ikke-ekskluderbart kollektivt gode, desto bedre er sjansene til å lykkes i frembringelsen av godet, såfremt troverdige håndhevingsmekanismer er på plass.

В статье рассматривается становление и развитие нефтяной отрасли, этапы ее развития и трансформации. Проведен анализ эффективности ключевых компаний отрасли и выявлен мультипликативный эффект от их деятельности для всей экономики., The article deals with the formation and development of the oil industry, the stages of its development and transformation. The analysis of the efficiency of key companies in the industry has been carried out and the multiplicative effect of their activities for the entire economy has been identified., Экономика и предпринимательство, Выпуск 4 (117) 2020

This paper deals with the analysis of the world, OPEC and non-OPEC oil production by testing the degree of persistence of the series throughout fractional integration. The analysis is relevant in the sense that it allows us to determine if shocks in the series have permanent or transitory effects. The results indicate evidence of mean reversion in the three series, especially for the world and OPEC production. We also notice evidence of multiple breaks though the degree of persistence seems to be relatively stable across the subsamples, with most of the values in the range [0.5, 1) implying non-stationary and mean reverting behavior. pre-print 603 KB

Between January 2017 and March 2020 a coalition of oil producers led by OPEC and Russia (known as OPEC+) cut oil production in an attempt to raise the price of crude oil. In March 2020 the corona virus shock led to a collapse of this coalition, as members did not agree on keeping the oil market tight in the face of a large negative demand shock. Yet, was OPEC+ actually effective in sustaining the price of oil? Between 2017 and early 2020 when the OPEC+ strategy was in place, oil inventories fell substantially and the price of oil reached a peak of around 80 USD per barrel, from a minimum of 30 USD in 2016. This suggests that the OPEC+ strategy had a significant impact on the global oil market. Yet, to what extent did crude prices actually reflect OPEC+ production cuts rather than other factors, like swings in demand for oil? How would the price of oil have evolved had OPEC+ not cut supply? This paper provides an answer to these questions through a counterfactual analysis based on two structural models of the global oil market. We find the impact of OPEC+ on the market was overall quite limited, owing to significant deviations from the assigned quotas. On average, without the OPEC+ cuts, the price of oil would have been 6 percent (4 USD) lower.

The mothballing option has been studied in the literature, but mainly in decision theoretic frameworks. This paper looks at it from a strategic point of view and applies it to an incumbent-entrant framework. In particular, based on the recent strategic interactions between OPEC and the shale oil industry, we conduct a case study where the incumbent OPEC is a exible producer that competes with a representative shale oil firm. Upon entry, the latter produces a fixed amount but it can apply the mothballing option in times of low demand. Our main results are threefold. First, we find that under low demand uncertainty, the mothballing option has a negative effect on the value of the entrant. Second, a large market share of the entrant will stimulate mothballing, caused by a so-called squeeze strategy of the incumbent. Third, our empirical analysis of the (shale) oil market learns that a higher demand elasticity induces mothballing.

This article examines the history of the Royal Dutch Shell scenarios, from the first horizon scan exercise in 1967. It proposes that forward-looking scenarios were integrated in planning at Shell as tools for managing uncertainty in global time and space relations of oil after 1967. Specifically, the article proposes that Shell strategically used the scenarios to respond to arguments, emanating both from OPEC and from the Club of Rome, of oil as a limited resource. Shell used the scenarios to create images of a future oil market dominated by innovation, creativity, and sustainable solutions.

The article reveals the problem of the development of manufacturing industry in Angola as a factor of ensuring the competitiveness of the country’s economy. Scientific views on the concept “competitiveness” have considered. The state of competitiveness of the Angolan economy from the point of view of modern methodological approaches has analysed. The author identifies the reasons for lack of competitiveness of the Angolan economy on global competitiveness rankings, gives recommendations for the development of manufacturing industry in Angola as a mechanism to improve the competitiveness of the country’s economy. Besides this, the problems of public economic management in Angola have identified, which would be solving for the effective development of the manufacturing industry in the country.

This paper is to study the resource curse applying annual data from 2002 to 2016 for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members i.e. Algeria, Iran, Kuwait, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. For this purpose, there were concerned the interactions role of resource abundance and institution quality, and their marginal effect of the countries’ economic growth. Results show that resource abundance and investment have a positive significant effect on the economic growth. Yet, initial income level is observed to have a significant negative effect on the economic growth. In addition, the results showed that the positive effects of resource abundance in the OPEC countries were reduced with increasing institutional quality. The empirical results rejected the resource curse assumption for OPEC, because the effects of resource abundance on the economies of OPEC were significantly positive. Results of the present study indicated, since the institutional structure of these countries is based on oil, the lack of oil revenues in short-run can have a negative effect on their economies.

Celem artykulu jest przeprowadzenie analizy zmian zachodzących na rynku ropy naftowej w okresie trzeciego szoku cenowego w latach 2007-2008. Szczegolnie istotna z punktu widzenia poruszanego problemu badawczego jest odpowiedź na pytanie, jaki wplyw na ceny ropy naftowej i wielkośc konsumpcji tego surowca mają zaburzenia w wielkości wydobycia w grupie panstw OPEC lub w panstwach niestowarzyszonych w kartelu. W cześci empirycznej artykulu dokonano estymacji parametrow modelu wektorowej korekty bledem oraz analizy funkcji reakcji na impuls. Na podstawie wstepnej analizy danych statystycznych mozna zauwazyc, iz wysokie tempo popytu w latach 2004-2008 nie bylo kompensowane przez odpowiednią dynamike wydobycia. Na podstawie analizy funkcji reakcji na impuls mozna zauwazyc, iz zaburzenie światowego popytu na rope naftową wiąze sie z pozytywną reakcją wydobycia panstw kartelu, co sklania ku refleksji, na ile brak reakcji w latach 2007–2008 stanowil strategie polityki wydobywczej, a na ile pozostawalo to poza decyzjami OPEC. Z drugiej strony pozytywna reakcja podazy OPEC na szok popytowy jest opoźniona o 4 miesiące, co daje podstawy do przypuszczen, ze natychmiastowe, krotkookresowe zwiekszanie podazy w tej grupie panstw jest ograniczone. Szoki wynikające z nieoczekiwanego wzrostu popytu na surowce lub zaburzen w rownaniu cen prowadzą do wzrostu produkcji w obu grupach panstw. W obu przypadkach reakcja OPEC jest silniejsza.

Nowadays energy diplomacy tends to be one of most relevant and important fields of applied research in International Relations. It is characterized by an interdisciplinary approach being an intersection of political and economic theory, international law, energetics, theory of diplomacy, as well as other fields. Still, numerous research works in the given area both in Russia and abroad are characterized by a number of controversies, such as absence of a common theoretical, methodological basis and conventional terminology, as well as lack of consistency in the choice of scientific paradigms, which leads to divergence of research results and hinders the comparability of the latter. Along with that, in terms of scientific policy it is worth mentioning the absence of a common scientific space in the above field of research, which tends to be shaped by national research cultures and traditions. Throughout the 2000-2010s representatives of the MGIMO scientific school have accumulated experience in dealing with problems of energy diplomacy. However, most of the existing works do not specify the selected political theory paradigms, such as, for instance, realism, liberalism or constructivism. With no intention to conduct a comparative analysis of the aforementioned concepts, the authors of the article outline the key theoretical findings of political realism as the most suitable paradigm for explaining, analyzing and eventually forecasting the recent trends and phenomena given the current geopolitical and economical juncture. They prove the applicability of the proposed model to the OPEC case study and demonstrate its potential practical usefulness for policy-makers in foreign affairs and international energy relations.

the article examines the issues of influence of OPEC countries on the international oil market. Also, the author analyzes the state of the oil market and fluctuations in oil prices at the macroeconomic level for 2011–2016.

The amount of energy consumption per growth affects on economic growth in all countries, so the access of world countries to variety of energy is essential for economic growth. Numerous studies in a world have shown that the pace of growth of energy consumption will largely depend on the level of economic growth. The present study aims to investigate on the researches that has been done on impact of the renewable energy consumption on the economic growth, all over the world. And after that the relation between renewable energy consumption and growth in a selected countries of OPEC members during 1985-2014. With unit root test determine stability of data and proved that all data are stable. The linear Granger causality test indicate unidirectional causality from energy consumption to growth. F limer and hausman test also stimate for determining the Regression model.

Market power refers to the ability to affecting to the market. The firm has a pricing power in the monopoly market. One of the types of monopolies is the cartel. Two important features of behavior in form of the cartel are the impact on the amount of production and price. In terms of production, the cartel controls the production through coordination among the members, and in terms of impact on prices, it affects the price of the market by controlling production. In this study, to investigate the market power of OPEC, this issue will be discussed that whether OPEC acts as a cartel, or not? Therefore, to measure the market power of OPEC, The behavior and coordination of OPEC members’ production decisions are being studied. The research hypotheses are as follows, there is coordination in behavior and production decisions between the production of OPEC and the production of OPEC members, and total production of OPEC determines oil prices in the global oil markets. To prove the first hypothesis, used ARDL bounds testing approach of co-integration, and for the second hypothesis, used Toda-Yamamoto tests. The data used in this study includes the production of OPEC members, global oil prices (Brent, Dubai and WTI), in the period of 1994-2016, quarterly and monthly and 1980-2016, annual. The results indicates that there is no long-term relationship between the production of OPEC members and total production of OPEC, also causality from oil prices to OPEC production, also the direction of causality is from oil prices to OPEC production.

Transnational competition cases pose numerous challenges— from accessing foreign-based evidence to effectively enforcing decisions or judgments in their aftermath. Some of such cases are quite special in that the underlying conduct involves or implicates a foreign State. This article makes an original contribution to the scholarship by filling the existing gap and developing a typology of State’s entanglement in conduct causing competitive harm abroad. It also examines the way in which foreign State’s involvement or implication can be addressed in the adversely affected forum. Moreover, the key broader considerations which need to inform policies and approaches toward such cases are identified and evaluated. It is argued that competitive harm resulting from commercial dealings should be pursued under competition laws regardless of the character of the parties involved, unless there are overriding reasons justifying abstention. States should not enjoy immunity for competitive harm resulting from their commercial dealings. Agencies and courts in the affected fora should strive to clarify this matter. A clear State’s policy on dealing with inbound competitive harm may also make foreign partners more receptive to concerns about policies which facilitate competitive harm which they may be pursuing. http://www.kluwerlawonline.com/abstract.php?area=Journals&id=WOCO2017018