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Critical infrastructures are more exposed than ever to natural hazards in a changing climate. To understand and manage risk, failure cascades across large, real-world infrastructure networks, and their impact on people, must be captured. Bridging established methods in both infrastructure and risk modelling communities, we develop an open-source modelling framework which integrates a network-based interdependent infrastructure system model into the globally consistent and spatially explicit natural hazard risk assessment platform CLIMADA. The model captures infrastructure damages, triggers failure cascades and estimates resulting basic service disruptions for the dependent population. It flexibly operates on large areas with publicly available hazard, exposure and vulnerability information, for any set of infrastructure networks, hazards and geographies of interest. In a validated case study for 2018’s Hurricane Michael across three US states, the model reproduced important failure dynamics among six infrastructure networks, and provided a novel spatial map where people were likely to experience disruptions in access to healthcare, loss of power and other vital services. Our generalized approach allows for a view on infrastructure risks and their social impacts also in areas where detailed information and risk assessments are traditionally scarce, informing humanitarian activities through hotspot analyses and policy frameworks alike., Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 234, ISSN:0951-8320

Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause devastating damage to life and property. Historical TC data is scarce, complicating adequate TC risk assessments. Synthetic TC models are specifically designed to overcome this scarcity. While these models have been evaluated on their ability to simulate TC activity, no study to date has focused on model performance and applicability in TC risk assessments. This study performs the intercomparison of four different global-scale synthetic TC datasets in the impact space, comparing impact return period curves, probability of rare events, and hazard intensity distribution over land. We find that the model choice influences the costliest events, particularly in basins with limited TC activity. Modelled direct economic damages in the North Indian Ocean, for instance, range from 40 to 246 billion USD for the 100-yr event over the four hazard sets. We furthermore provide guidelines for the suitability of the different synthetic models for various research purposes., Nature Communications, 13 (1), ISSN:2041-1723

Here we show how major rivers can efficiently connect to the deep-sea, by analysing the longest runout sediment flows (of any type) yet measured in action on Earth. These seafloor turbidity currents originated from the Congo River-mouth, with one flow travelling >1,130 km whilst accelerating from 5.2 to 8.0 m/s. In one year, these turbidity currents eroded 1,338-2,675 [>535-1,070] Mt of sediment from one submarine canyon, equivalent to 19–37 [>7–15] % of annual suspended sediment flux from present-day rivers. It was known earthquakes trigger canyon-flushing flows. We show river-floods also generate canyon-flushing flows, primed by rapid sediment-accumulation at the river-mouth, and sometimes triggered by spring tides weeks to months post-flood. It is demonstrated that strongly erosional turbidity currents self-accelerate, thereby travelling much further, validating a long-proposed theory. These observations explain highly-efficient organic carbon transfer, and have important implications for hazards to seabed cables, or deep-sea impacts of terrestrial climate change.

Climate-exacerbated hazards have left an indelible mark on Europe in recent years. Switzerland has had a national climate change adaptation strategy in place since 2012. However, it is clear from the increasing frequency, intensity, and scale of climate-exacerbated hazards in Europe that more adaptation and better cooperation across cantonal and international borders are needed. This CSS Risk and Resilience Report has the aim to complement a 2021 analysis by the Swiss Federal Office for Civil Protection, which outlined action points and predicted incident management needs until 2040 in response to climate change. The desk-based research of secondary resources in combination with semi-structured interviews revealed that recent climate-exacerbated hazards have led to tangible changes within the civil protection systems of the studied countries. Two particular lessons applying to all analyzed countries are therefore presented in this study, followed by eight particular pathways that can assist Swiss Civil Protection., Die durch den Klimawandel verschärften Gefahren haben in den letzten Jahren in Europa unauslöschliche Spuren hinterlassen. Deshalb verfügt die Schweiz seit 2012 über eine nationale Strategie zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel. Die zunehmende Häufigkeit, Intensität und das Ausmass klimabedingter Gefahren in Europa machen jedoch deutlich, dass mehr Anpassung und eine bessere Zusammenarbeit über kantonale und internationale Grenzen hinweg erforderlich sind. Der vorliegende CSS Risk and Resilience Report soll eine Analyse des Bundesamts für Bevölkerungsschutz aus dem Jahr 2021 ergänzen. Ebendieser CSS Risk and Resilience Report zeigt auf, dass die jüngsten klimabedingten Gefahren zu spürbaren Veränderungen in den Katastrophenschutzsystemen der untersuchten Länder geführt haben. Zwei besondere Lehren, die für alle untersuchten Länder gelten, werden daher in dieser Studie vorgestellt, gefolgt von acht Ansätzen, die für den Schweizer Zivilschutz hilfreich sein können., CSS Risk and Resilience Reports

Ports are embedded in different networks, including the local critical infrastructure network, the regional hinterland transport network and the global maritime transport network. These networks are exposed to a variety of natural hazards, which cause disruptions that can propagate to other network components, resulting in wider supply chain losses. However, the risks of such indirect network disruptions, or systemic risks, are often not considered in risk analyses of ports. We propose a systemic risk framework for different networks interconnected through ports, and describe the state-of-the-art risk modelling approaches to quantify systemic risks. In addition, we present a port risk layering framework that can help identify how resilience against systemic risks can be improved. As climate change will likely increase the occurrence of natural hazards to ports and transport networks, efforts to enhance system-wide resilience should be considered, alongside port adaptation, to prevent exacerbation of supply chain losses in the future.

Los riesgos naturales están teniendo un interés creciente en España en el ámbito educativo dado las implicaciones del cambio climático y el urbanismo desarrollado. Esta investigación, a partir del análisis de libros de texto de Ciencias Sociales (3er ciclo de Educación Primaria) plantea dos objetivos: analizar los riesgos naturales que se tratan, atendiendo a las definiciones y factores (naturales y humanos) que intervienen; y examinar las actividades (grado de problematización) que se proponen sobre estos fenómenos. Como hipótesis de partida, los principales riesgos naturales citados serían los atmosféricos (inundaciones y sequías), con escasas definiciones y, respecto a las actividades, estas serían escasas y caracterizadas por su reducida problematización (memorización y reproducción de contenidos). Metodológicamente se han revisado los principales manuales de Ciencias Sociales de Educación Primaria (3er ciclo; 5º y 6º) que se utilizan en España. Tras la revisión de estos recursos, se ha comprobado que los principales riesgos citados son los atmosféricos (inundaciones vinculadas a episodios de lluvias intensas y las sequías), con escasas definiciones y una ausencia del factor humano como causante del riesgo. Respecto a las actividades, cabe destacar que son escasas y además, caracterizadas por presentar una reducida problematización. Como conclusión, cabe indicar que la educación para el riesgo en los niveles básicos de la enseñanza es una medida básica en el contexto actual de cambio climático para mejorar la resiliencia de la sociedad, por ello, debería mejorarse la explicación de estos fenómenos en los libros de texto. Natural hazards are having a growing interest in Spain in the educational field given the implications of climate change and developed urban planning. This research, based on the analysis of Social Sciences school textbooks (3rd cycle of Primary Education), has two objectives: to analyse the natural hazards that are treated, taking into account the definitions and factors (natural and human) involved; and examine the activities (degree of problematization) on these phenomena. As a starting hypothesis, the main natural risks cited would be the atmospheric ones (floods and droughts), with few definitions. And regarding the activities, these would be few and characterized by their reduced problematization (memorizing and reproducing content). Methodologically, the main school manuals of Primary Education of Social Sciences (3rd cycle; 5th and 6th) used in Spain have been consulted. After reviewing these resources, it has been found that the main natural risks mentioned are atmospheric (floods linked to episodes of intense rains and droughts), with few definitions and an absence of the human factor as a cause of risk. Regarding the activities, it should be noted that they are scarce and, furthermore, characterized by presenting a low level of problematization. To sum up, risk education at the basic levels of education is a basic measure in the current context of climate change to improve the resilience of society. For this, the explanation of these phenomena in school textbooks should be improved.

Coastal areas are vulnerable to different natural hazards, including hurricanes, cyclones, tsunami, floods, coastal erosion, and saltwater intrusion. These hazards cause extensive social, ecological, economic, and human losses. Continued climate change and sea-level rise is expected to substantially impact the people living in coastal areas. Sea level rise poses serious threats for the people living in the coastal zone, which leads to coastal erosion, inundations in the low-lying areas, tidal water encroachment and subsequent salt-water intrusion, as well as the displacement of the people living along the coast. Coastal erosion is one of the biggest environmental threats in the coastal areas globally. In Bangladesh, coastal erosion is a regularly occurring and major destructive process, impacting both human and ecological systems at sea level. The Lower Meghna estuary, located in southern Bangladesh, is among the most vulnerable landscapes in the world to the impacts of coastal erosion. Erosion causes population displacement, loss of productive land area, loss of infrastructure and communication systems, and, most importantly, household livelihoods. For a lower middle-class country, such as Bangladesh, with limited internal resources, it is hard to cope with catastrophic natural hazards, such as coastal erosion and its related consequences. This research aims to advance the scientific understanding of past and future coastal erosion risk and associated changes in land change and land cover using geospatial analysis techniques. It also aims to understand the patterns and drivers of human perception of coastal erosion risk. To place the research questions and objectives in content, Chapter 1 includes a brief introduction and literature review of the coastal erosion context in Bangladesh. Chapter 2 assesses different methods of prediction to investigate the performance of future shoreline position predictions by quantifying how prediction performance varies depending on the time depths of input historical shoreline data and the time horizons of predicted shorelines. Chapter 3 evaluates historical land loss and how well predicted shorelines predict amounts of succeeding LULC resources lost to erosion. Chapter 4 focuses on the patterns and drivers of erosion risk perception using data from spatially explicit measures of coastal erosion risk derived from satellite imagery and a random sample survey of residents living in the coastal communities. In summary, this research advances our scientific understanding of past and future coastal erosion risk and associated changes in land change and land cover using geospatial analysis techniques. It also enhances the understanding of the patterns and drivers of human perception of coastal erosion risk by combining satellite imagery and social survey data. Compared to much of the coastal erosion literature, this work draws from a 35-year time series of satellite-derived shorelines at annual temporal resolution. This time depth enables us to employ a temporal design strategy expected to yield a robust characterization of space-time erosion patterns. This study also enabled us to assess how well predicted shorelines predict amounts of succeeding LULC resources lost to erosion by using long-term historical data. The innovative we use has potential applications to other deltas and vulnerable shorelines globally. While empirical results are specific to the project's study area, results can inform the region's shoreline forecasting ability and associated mitigation and adaptation strategies. Doctor of Philosophy Coastal erosion is a global problem. Coastal Bangladesh has one of the highest rates of erosion in the world. Erosion causes population displacement, loss of productive land area, loss of infrastructure and communication systems, and, most importantly, household livelihoods. With an aim to advance our understanding of coastal erosion hazard, this study assessed past and future coastal erosion risk and associated changes in land change and land cover and human risk perceptions using different geospatial and statistical analysis techniques. First, different methods of coastal erosion prediction were evaluated to investigate the performance of future shoreline position predictions. Second, the historical land loss was estimated and how well predicted shorelines predict amounts of succeeding LULC resources lost to erosion were assessed. Finally, the patterns and drivers of human perception of coastal erosion risk were explored.

Advances in deep learning and computer vision are making significant contributions to flood mapping, particularly when integrated with remotely sensed data. Although existing supervised methods, especially deep convolutional neural networks, have proved to be effective, they require intensive manual labeling of flooded pixels to train a multi-layer deep neural network that learns abstract semantic features of the input data. This research introduces a novel weakly supervised approach for pixel-wise flood mapping by leveraging multi-temporal remote sensing imagery and image processing techniques (e.g., Normalized Difference Water Index and edge detection) to create weakly labeled data. Using these weakly labeled data, a bi-temporal U-Net model is then proposed and trained for flood detection without the need for time-consuming and labor-intensive human annotations. Using floods from Hurricanes Florence and Harvey as case studies, we evaluated the performance of the proposed bi-temporal U-Net model and baseline models, such as decision tree, random forest, gradient boost, and adaptive boosting classifiers. To assess the effectiveness of our approach, we conducted a comprehensive assessment that (1) covered multiple test sites with varying degrees of urbanization, and (2) utilized both bi-temporal (i.e., pre- and post-flood) and uni-temporal (i.e., only post-flood) input. The experimental results showed that the proposed framework of weakly labeled data generation and the bi-temporal U-Net could produce near real-time urban flood maps with consistently high precision, recall, f1 score, IoU score, and overall accuracy compared with baseline machine learning algorithms.

Physical models have suggested a large reduction in bearing capacity of simple foundations due to overtopping tsunami scour. We use the results of these tests to create scoured foundation geometries for simple breakwater-type structures and investigate the change in the system's capacity due to scour through the use of simple two-dimensional (2D) numerical analysis using an advanced constitutive model. The particular aspects of the construction of such models and the general applicability of the method are also discussed. A simple method for estimating the reduction in capacity due to scour is proposed through the use of modified vertical, horizontal force, and moment (VHM) failure surfaces. The general method for creating such simplified scour-dependent failure surfaces is described thoroughly, such that the process can be replicated for other foundation configurations or scour problems. Results indicated that even a small amount of scouring can lead to a substantial reduction in the horizontal and moment capacity of a foundation, the effect of scour is shown to be a nonuniform contraction of the failure envelope, where both the ultimate vertical capacity V0 as well as the relative ratios between vertical, horizontal and moment capacity are strongly affected by the presence of scour. Such a conclusion demonstrates clearly how simply increasing the unscoured factor of safety of such structures is not sufficient to guarantee stability in the event of scouring. The presented methodology for determining the scoured failure surfaces provides a simple, logical means to estimate the performance of such systems undergoing scour., Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 149 (6), ISSN:1090-0241, ISSN:1943-5606

A major component of urban management is studying and evaluating urban resilience in order to minimize the effects of natural hazards. This is because of the increasing number of natural hazards occurring worldwide. A spatial decision support system is presented for modeling urban resilience and selecting resilient zones in response to natural hazards. This system is implemented based on 22 criteria, grouped into three categories: demographics, infrastructure, and environmental. The criteria are then standardized using minimum and maximum methods, and their importance is determined by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The resilience maps in various scenarios are prepared using the ordered weighted average (OWA) method. Flow accumulation (distance from fault), vulnerable population density (vulnerable population density), and distance from road network (material type) were regarded as the most important criteria for flood resilience (earthquake resilience) from environmental, demographic, and infrastructure criteria, respectively. There are different areas that are considered to have very low resilience depending on the risk attitude. According a pessimistic scenario, 1% of Tehran’s area has very low resilience, while according to an optimistic scenario, 38% has very low resilience. This system can be used by urban planners and policymakers for the purpose of improving resilience to natural hazards in low-resilience areas.

Natural disasters have been significantly affecting the natural and artificial environment for decades. For this reason, it is necessary to carry out adequate territorial planning in order to predict and mitigate possible natural risks in areas of great environmental value and interest, which is the case of the Arribes del Duero Natural Park. In order to achieve this, geotechnical mapping should be carried out followed by hazard mapping, taking into account the lithological, hydrogeological and geomorphological characteristics and, in addition, the real erosion rates. The results indicate that, in the study area, there are three areas with different geotechnical characteristics, classified according to their lithological, geomorphological and hydrological characteristics. In terms of hazards, there are five zones: with hydrological problems; lithological and geomorphological problems; geomorphological and hydrological problems; geomorphological and lithological problems; and geotechnical problems. Finally, it can be concluded that geotechnical mapping enables us to delimit areas of recommendations and limitations of use in terms of construction activities which, together with natural hazard mapping, will be very useful in the preparation of risk mapping for land-use planning.

Land cover change in the semi-arid environment of the eastern Hindu Kush region is driven by anthropogenic activities and environmental change impacts. Natural hazards, such as floods presumably influenced by climatic change, cause abrupt change of land cover. So far, little research has been conducted to investigate the spatiotemporal aspects of this abrupt change in the valleys. In order to explore the abrupt change in land cover and floods as its possible drivers in the eastern Hindu Kush, a semi-arid mountain region characterized by complex terrain, vegetation variation, and precipitation seasonality, we analyzed long-term Landsat image time series from 1988 to 2020 using Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST). Overall, BFAST effectively detected abrupt change by using Landsat-derived Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI). The results of our study indicate that approximately 95% of the study area experienced at least one abrupt change during 1988–2020. The years 1991, 1995, 1998, 2007, and 2016 were detected as the peak years, with the peaks occurring in different seasons. The annual trend of abrupt change is decreasing for the study area. The seasonality of abrupt change at the catchment level shows an increasing trend in the spring season for the southern catchments of Panjkora and Swat. The spatial distribution patterns show that abrupt change is primarily concentrated in the floodplains indicating that flooding is the primary driver of the land cover change in the region. We also demonstrated the accurate detection of past flood events (2015) based on the two case examples of Ayun, Rumbur, and Kalash valleys. The detection of the flood events was verified by fieldwork and historical high-resolution Google Earth imagery. Finally, our study provides an example of applying Landsat time series in a dry mountain region to detect abrupt changes in land cover and analyze impact of natural hazards such as floods.

Worldwide, communities are facing increasing flood risk, due to more frequent and intense hazards and rising exposure through more people living along coastlines and in flood plains. Nature-based Solutions (NbS), such as mangroves, and riparian forests, offer huge potential for adaptation and risk reduction. The capacity of trees and forests to attenuate waves and mitigate storm damages receives massive attention, especially after extreme storm events. However, application of forests in flood mitigation strategies remains limited to date, due to lack of real-scale measurements on the performance under extreme conditions. Experiments executed in a large-scale flume with a willow forest to dissipate waves show that trees are hardly damaged and strongly reduce wave and run-up heights, even when maximum wave heights are up to 2.5 m. It was observed for the first time that the surface area of the tree canopy is most relevant for wave attenuation and that the very flexible leaves limitedly add to effectiveness. Overall, the study shows that forests can play a significant role in reducing wave heights and run-up under extreme conditions. Currently, this potential is hardly used but may offer future benefits in achieving more adaptive levee designs.

Rockburst is a severe geological hazard that restricts deep mine operations and tunnel constructions. To overcome the shortcomings of widely used algorithms in rockburst prediction, this study investigates the ensemble trees, i.e., random forest (RF), extremely randomized tree (ET), adaptive boosting machine (AdaBoost), gradient boosting machine, extreme gradient boosting machine (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine, and category gradient boosting machine, for rockburst estimation based on 314 real rockburst cases. Additionally, Bayesian optimization is utilized to optimize these ensemble trees. To improve performance, three combination strategies, voting, bagging, and stacking, are adopted to combine multiple models according to training accuracy. ET and XGBoost receive the best capabilities (85.71% testing accuracy) in single models, and except for AdaBoost, six ensemble trees have high accuracy and can effectively foretell strong rockburst to prevent large-scale underground disasters. The combination models generated by voting, bagging, and stacking perform better than single models, and the voting 2 model that combines XGBoost, ET, and RF with simple soft voting, is the most outstanding (88.89% testing accuracy). The performed sensitivity analysis confirms that the voting 2 model has better robustness than single models and has remarkable adaptation and superiority when input parameters vary or miss, and it has more power to deal with complex and variable engineering environments. Eventually, the rockburst cases in Sanshandao Gold Mine, China, were investigated, and these data verify the practicability of voting 2 in field rockburst prediction.

Volcanic eruptions are among the most jeopardizing natural events due to their potential impacts on life, assets, and the environment. In particular, atmospheric dispersal of volcanic tephra and aerosols during explosive eruptions poses a serious threat to life and has significant consequences for infrastructures and global aviation safety. The volcanic island of Jan Mayen, located in the North Atlantic under trans-continental air traffic routes, is considered the northernmost active volcanic area in the world with at least five eruptive periods recorded during the last 200 years. However, quantitative hazard assessments on the possible consequences for the air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption at Jan Mayen are nonexistent. This study presents the first comprehensive long-term volcanic hazard assessment for the volcanic island of Jan Mayen in terms of ash dispersal and concentration at different flight levels. In order to delve into the characterization and modeling of that potential impact, a probabilistic approach based on merging a large number of numerical simulations is adopted, varying the volcano's eruption source parameters (ESPs) and meteorological scenario. Each ESP value is randomly sampled following a continuous probability density function (PDF) based on the Jan Mayen geological record. Over 20 years of meteorological data is considered in order to explore the natural variability associated with weather conditions and is used to run thousands of simulations of the ash dispersal model FALL3D on a 2 km resolution grid. The simulated scenarios are combined to produce probability maps of airborne ash concentration, arrival time, and persistence of unfavorable conditions at flight levels 50 and 250 (FL050 and FL250). The resulting maps can serve as an aid during the development of civil protection strategies, to decision-makers and aviation stakeholders, in assessing and preventing the potential impact of a future ash-rich eruption at Jan Mayen., This research has been supported by the European Commission's CORDIS (ChEESE (grant no. 823844)).

Considering the large number of natural disasters on the planet, many areas in the world are at risk of these hazards; therefore, providing an integrated map as a guide map for multiple natural hazards can be applied to save human lives and reduce financial losses. This study designed a multi-hazard map for three important hazards (earthquakes, floods, and landslides) to identify endangered areas in Kermanshah province located in western Iran using ensemble SWARA-ANFIS-PSO and SWARA-ANFIS-GWO models. In the first step, flood and landslide inventory maps were generated to identify at-risk areas. Then, the occurrence places for each hazard were divided into two groups for training susceptibility models (70%) and testing the models applied (30%). Factors affecting these hazards, including altitude, slope aspect, slope degree, plan curvature, distance to rivers, distance to roads, distance to the faults, rainfall, lithology, and land use, were used to generate susceptibility maps. The SWARA method was used to weigh the subclasses of the influencing factors in floods and landslides. In addition, a peak ground acceleration (PGA) map was generated to investigate earthquakes in the study area. In the next step, the ANFIS machine learning algorithm was used in combination with PSO and GWO meta-heuristic algorithms to train the data, and SWARA-ANFIS-PSO and SWARA-ANFIS-GWO susceptibility maps were separately generated for flood and landslide hazards. The predictive ability of the implemented models was validated using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean square error (MSE) methods. The results showed that the SWARA-ANFIS-PSO ensemble model had the best performance in generating flood susceptibility maps with ROC = 0.936, RMS = 0.346, and MSE = 0.120. Furthermore, this model showed excellent results (ROC = 0.894, RMS = 0.410, and MSE = 0.168) for generating a landslide map. Finally, the best maps and PGA map were combined, and a multi-hazard map (MHM) was obtained for Kermanshah Province. This map can be used by managers and planners as a practical guide for sustainable development.

Several studies have monitored crustal seismic velocity changes and attempted to relate them to the stress state and physical properties in volume embedding fault systems. The aim is to provide constraints on fault system dynamics and earthquake triggering mechanisms. Here, we reconstruct the spatiotemporal (4D) seismic velocity images of volume embedding the Irpinia fault system (IFS, South Italy), which originated the 1980 Ms 6.9 multi-segmented ruptures. By inverting data from more than ten years of continuous seismicity monitoring, we retrieved time-constant velocity anomalies, whose shapes correlate well with crustal lithology, while time-changing (up to 20%) velocity anomalies are mapped in the central region. Here, the Vp-to-Vs changes at depths of 1–5 km and 8–12 km correlate well with groundwater recharge and geodetic displacement during the same time interval. This correlation provides evidence for the existence of pulsating, pore pressure changes induced by groundwater recharge processes in a deep volume (8–12 km of depth), fractured and saturated with a predominant gas phase (likely CO2). We suggest that tomographic measurements of the Vp-to-Vs spatiotemporal changes are a suitable proxy to track the pore pressure evolution at depth in highly sensitive regions of fault systems.

Earthquakes caused by human activities receive scrutiny due to the risks and hazards they pose. Seismicity that occurs after the causative anthropogenic operation stops has been particularly problematic—both because of high-profile cases of damage caused by this trailing seismicity and due to the loss of control for risk management. With this motivation, we undertake a statistical examination of how induced seismicity stops. We borrow the concept of Båth’s law from tectonic aftershock sequences. Båth’s law anticipates the difference between magnitudes in two subsets of seismicity as dependent on their population count ratio. We test this concept for its applicability to induced seismicity, including ~ 80 cases of earthquakes caused by hydraulic fracturing, enhanced geothermal systems, and other fluid-injections with clear operational end points. We find that induced seismicity obeys Båth’s law: both in terms of the magnitude-count-ratio relationship and the power law distribution of residuals. Furthermore, the distribution of count ratios is skewed and heavy-tailed, with most earthquakes occurring during stimulation/injection. We discuss potential models to improve the characterization of these count ratios and propose a Seismogenic Fault Injection Test to measure their parameters in situ. We conclude that Båth’s law quantifies the occurrence of earthquake magnitudes trailing anthropogenic operations.

Attributable to the Montreal Protocol, the most successful environmental treaty ever, human-made ozone-depleting substances are declining and the stratospheric Antarctic ozone layer is recovering. However, the Antarctic ozone hole continues to occur every year, with the severity of ozone loss strongly modulated by meteorological conditions. In late November and early December 2020, we measured at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula the highest ultraviolet (UV) irradiances recorded in the Antarctic continent in more than two decades. On Dec. 2nd, the noon-time UV index on King George Island peaked at 14.3, very close to the largest UV index ever recorded in the continent. On Dec. 3rd, the erythemal daily dose at the same site was among the highest on Earth, only comparable to those recorded at high altitude sites in the Atacama Desert, near the Tropic of Capricorn. Here we show that, despite the Antarctic ozone recovery observed in early spring, the conditions that favor these extreme surface UV events persist in late spring, when the biologically effective UV radiation is more consequential. These conditions include long-lasting ozone holes (attributable to the polar vortex dynamics) that often bring ozone-depleted air over the Antarctic Peninsula in late spring. The fact that these conditions have been occurring at about the same frequency during the last two decades explains the persistence of extreme surface UV events in Antarctica.

The Pantanal, the largest contiguous wetland in the world with a high diversity of ecosystems and habitat for several endangered species, was impacted by record-breaking wildfires in 2020. In this study, we integrate satellite and modeling data that enable exploration of natural and human contributing factors to the unprecedented 2020 fires. We demonstrate that the fires were fueled by an exceptional multi-year drought, but dry conditions solely could not explain the spatial patterns of burning. Our analysis reveals how human-caused fires exacerbated drought effects on natural ecosystem within the Pantanal, with large burned fractions primarily over natural (52%), and low cattle density areas (44%) in 2020. The post-fire ecosystem and hydrology changes also had strong ecological effects, with vegetation productivity less than − 1.5 σ over more than 30% of the natural and conservation areas. In contrast to more managed areas, there was a clear decrease in evaporation (by ~ 9%) and an increase in runoff (by ~ 5%) over the natural areas, with long-term impacts on ecosystem recovery and fire risk. This study provides the first tropical evidence outside rainforests of the synergy between climate, land management and fires, and the associated impacts on the ecosystem and hydrology over the largest contiguous wetlands in the world.

Online social networks (OSNs) have become a powerful tool to study collective human responses to extreme events such as earthquakes. Most previous research concentrated on a single platform and utilized users’ behaviors on a single platform to study people’s general responses. In this study, we explore the characteristics of people’s behaviors on different OSNs and conduct a cross-platform analysis of public responses to earthquakes. Our findings support the Uses and Gratification theory that users on Reddit and Twitter are engaging with platforms that they may feel best reflect their sense of self. Using the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes as our study cases, we collected 510,579 tweets and 45,770 Reddit posts (including 1437 submissions and 44,333 comments) to answer the following research questions: (1) What were the similarities and differences between public responses on Twitter and Reddit? (2) Considering the different mechanisms of Twitter and Reddit, what unique information of public responses can we learn from Reddit as compared with Twitter? By answering these research questions, we aim to bridge the gap of cross-platform public responses research towards natural hazards. Our study evinces that the users on the two different platforms have both different topics of interest and different sentiments towards the same earthquake, which indicates the necessity of investigating cross-platform OSNs to reveal a more comprehensive picture of people’s general public responses towards certain disasters. Our analysis also finds that r/conspiracy subreddit is one of the major venues where people discuss the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes on Reddit and different misinformation/conspiracies spread on Twitter and Reddit platforms (e.g., “Big one is coming” on Twitter and “Nuclear test” on Reddit).

Slope stability is a prominent problem for the efficient application and promotion of highwall mining technology, especially when mining residual coal under high and steep end-slope conditions. This study proposes the concept of target time pillar strength based on the required coal pillar service time. Creep tests were performed to measure the time-varying properties of coal shear strength parameters under different loads, and a time-varying function was established by regression. The highwall mining length is divided into three categories based on discontinuous structural plane theory, including goaf, yielding, and elastic zones, all of which are considered to have resistances against shear stress. The basal coal seam is prone to weakening owing to the weight of overlying strata, which may shift the slope failure mode from circular to sliding along the weak layer. Numerical modeling was used to study the influence of the bearing stress and target time strength on the development of the yielding zone at the coal pillar ribs. The coefficients of the three zones were determined, and the temporal and spatial evolution patterns of the shear strength parameters of the weak layer were acquired. A slope stability calculation method is proposed based on rigid body-limit equilibrium theory that can quantify the influence of highwall mining operations on slope stability, which is significant for popularizing highwall mining technology.

The concentration of nine heavy metals in Oreochromis niloticus and Ipomoea aquatica inhabiting Agodi reservoir, Oyo State, Nigeria were investigated for twelve months. The concentrations of the metals were carried out using PG990 Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer. The Ecological Risk Quotient (ERQ) was calculated using standard methods while the tolerability was determined with Box Plot analysis. The metal bioaccumulation in O. niloticus and I. aquatica followed the order Mn > Fe > Zn > Cu > Co > Pb > Cd > Cr > Ni and Fe > Zn > Mn > Cu > Pb > Cd > Co > Cr > Ni respectively. The results revealed O. niloticus to bioaccumulate the metals more than I. aquatica. Most of the examined metals were higher than the safety limit for the metals concentration in O. niloticus and I. aquatica. Also, I. aquatica had higher tolerability for heavy metals than O. niloticus. In O. niloticus, metal concentration, as well as ERQ, was higher in the wet season while no particular order was observed for I. aquatica. The ERQ result revealed that Cd, Fe, Mn, Zn, Cu and Pb exhibited a high level of ecological risk to both the aquatic flora and fauna as the ERQ values were above the risk limit of one (1). Thus, there is a significant environmental risk associated with heavy metals in the water body.

Heavy metal pollution of river freshwater environments currently raises significant concerns due to the toxic effects and the fact that heavy metal behavior is not fully understood. This study assessed the contamination level of eight heavy metals and trace elements (Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Pb, Cd, and Hg) in the surface sediments of 19 sites in 2018 during four periods (March, May, June, and October) in Olt River sediments. Multivariate statistical techniques were used, namely, one-way ANOVA, person product-moment correlation analysis, principal component analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis, and sediment quality indicators such as the contamination factor and pollution load index. The results demonstrated higher contents of Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Pb, Cd, and Hg, with values that were over 2.46, 4.40, 1.15, 8.28, 1.10, 1.53, and 3.71 times more, respectively, compared with the national quality standards for sediments. We observed a positive significant statistical correlation (p p = 0.08). Intermetal associations were observed only in March, indicating a relationship with river discharge from spring. The PCA sustained mainly anthropogenic sources of heavy metals, which were also identified through correlation and cluster analyses. We noted significant differences between the Cr and Pb population means and variances (p

Wildfires are widespread disasters and are concurrently influenced by global climatic drivers. Due to the widespread and far-reaching influence of climatic drivers, separate regional wildfires may have similar climatic cause mechanisms. Determining a suite of global climatic drivers that explain most of the variations in different homogeneous wildfire regions will be of great significance for wildfire management, wildfire prediction, and global wildfire climatology. Therefore, this study first identified spatiotemporally homogeneous regions of burned area worldwide during 2001–2019 using a distinct empirical orthogonal function. Eight patterns with different spatiotemporal characteristics were identified. Then, the relationships between major burned area patterns and sixteen global climatic drivers were quantified based on wavelet analysis. The most significant global climatic drivers that strongly impacted each of the eight major wildfire patterns were identified. The most significant combinations of hotspots and climatic drivers were Atlantic multidecadal Oscillation-East Pacific/North Pacific Oscillation (EP/NP)-Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) with the pattern around Ukraine and Kazakhstan, El Niño/Southern Oscillation-Arctic Oscillation (AO)-East Atlantic/Western Russia Pattern (EA/WR) with the pattern in Australia, and PNA-AO-Polar/Eurasia Pattern-EA/WR with the pattern in Brazil. Overall, these results provide a reference for predicting wildfire and understanding wildfire homogeneity.

A reasonable method is proposed to calculate the active earth pressure of finite soils based on the drum deformation mode of the flexible retaining wall close to the basement’s outer wall. The flexible retaining wall with cohesionless sand is studied, and the ultimate failure angle of finite soils close to the basement’s outer wall is obtained using the Coulomb theory. Soil arch theory is led to get the earth pressure coefficient in the subarea using the trace line of minor principal stress of circular arc after stress deflection. The soil layers at the top and bottom part of the retaining wall are restrained when the drum deformation occurs, and the soil layers are in a non-limit state. The linear relationship between the wall movement’s magnitude and the mobilization of the internal friction angle and the wall friction anger is presented. The level layer analysis method is modified to propose the resultant force of active earth pressure, the action point’s height, and the pressure distribution. Model tests are carried out to emulate the process of drum deformation and soil rupture with limited width. Through image analysis, it is found that the failure angle of soil within the limited width is larger than that of infinite soil. With the increase of the aspect ratio, the failure angle gradually reduces and tends to be constant. Compared with the test results, it is showed that the horizontal earth pressure reduces with the reduction of the aspect ratio within critical width, and the resultant force decreases with the increase of the limit state region under the same ratio. The middle part of the distribution curve is concave. The active earth pressure strength decreases less than Coulomb’s value, the upper and lower soil layers are in the non-limit state, and the active earth pressure strength is more than Coulomb’s value.

Acoustic emission (AE) characterization is an effective technique to indirectly capture the failure process of quasi brittle rock. In previous studies, both experiments and numerical simulations were adopted to investigate the AE characteristics of rocks. However, as the most popular numerical model, the moment tensor model (MTM) cannot be constrained by the experimental result because there is a gap between MTM and experiments in principle, signal processing and energy analysis. In this paper, we developed a particle-velocity-based model (PVBM) that enabled direct monitoring and analysis of the particle velocity in the numerical model and had good robustness. The PVBM imitated the actual experiment and could fill in gaps between the experiment and MTM. AE experiments of marine shale under uniaxial compression were carried out, and the results were simulated by MTM. In general, the variation trend of the experimental result could be presented by MTM. Nevertheless, the magnitudes of AE parameters by MTM presented notable differences of more than several orders of magnitude compared with those by the experiment. We sequentially used PVBM as a proxy to analyse these discrepancies and systematically evaluate the AE characterization of rocks from the experiment to numerical simulation, considering the influence of wave reflection, energy geometrical diffusion, viscous attenuation, particle size and progressive deterioration of rock material. The combination of MTM and PVBM could reasonably and accurately acquire AE characteristics of the actual AE experiment of rocks by making full use of their respective advantages.

Southern Europe is a hotspot for desertification risk because of the intimate impact of soil deterioration, landscape transformations, rising human pressure, and climate change. In this context, large-scale empirical analyses linking landscape fragmentation with desertification risk assume that increasing levels of land vulnerability to degradation are associated with significant changes in landscape structure. Using a traditional approach of landscape ecology, this study evaluates the spatial structure of a simulated landscape based on different levels of vulnerability to land degradation using 15 metrics calculated at three time points (early-1960s, early-1990s, early-2010s) in Italy. While the (average) level of land vulnerability increased over time almost in all Italian regions, vulnerable landscapes demonstrated to be increasingly fragmented, as far as the number of homogeneous patches and mean patch size are concerned. The spatial balance in affected and unaffected areas—typically observed in the 1960s—was progressively replaced with an intrinsically disordered landscape, and this process was more intense in regions exposed to higher (and increasing) levels of land degradation. The spread of larger land patches exposed to intrinsic degradation brings to important consequences since (1) the rising number of hotspots may increase the probability of local-scale degradation processes, and (2) the buffering effect of neighbouring (unaffected) land can be less effective on bigger hotspots, promoting a downward spiral toward desertification.

Climate change is modifying the spatiotemporal patterns of global precipitation events, temperatures, and winds, therefore, after extreme events, improving emergency responses in urban areas is key to saving its inhabitants. In Southern America, the number of extreme events is increasing. This is the case of Soledad, the municipality in Colombia where most of the catastrophic wind phenomena take place. To date, no studies have been conducted to quantify the impacts and effects of the urban cyclonic wind phenomena on society and the urban built environment. This lack of information and dissemination means that the population is not informed of the magnitude of the problem. This research aims to generate a risk map of atmospheric wind phenomena to evaluate their impacts and establish spatial-temporal correlations based on meteorological data from the last 20 years. Moreover, the online press has been used to identify the location of these phenomena and their negative impacts over time. For each event, the following indicators have been studied: (1) location of the atmospheric wind events; (2) occurrence rate; (3) impact of the events discriminated by fatalities, injuries, and affected houses. The results show that in 20 years, a total of 34 urban cyclonic wind events were reported. Those occurrences have impacted 60 neighbourhoods, leaving 7 deaths, 14,552 injured, and 5180 affected homes. These findings show the magnitude of the problem and the need to inform the population to improve emergency responses. We conclude that effective consideration of the resulting map will be crucial in the processes of decision-making related to territorial planning in Soledad, but also in other Southern American cities., Universidad de Granada / CBUA

Surging debris flows are among the most destructive natural hazards, and elucidating the interaction between coarse-grained fronts and the trailing liquefied slurry is key to understanding these flows. Here, we describe the application of high-resolution and high-frequency 3D LiDAR data to explore the dynamics of a debris flow at Illgraben, Switzerland. The LiDAR measurements facilitate automated detection of features on the flow surface, and construction of the 3D flow depth and velocity fields through time. Measured surface velocities (2–3 m s−1) are faster than front velocities (0.8–2 m s−1), illustrating the mechanism whereby the flow front is maintained along the channel. Further, we interpret the relative velocity of different particles to infer that the vertical velocity profile varies between plug flow and one that features internal shear. Our measurements provide unique insights into debris-flow motion, and provide the foundation for a more detailed understanding of these hazardous events., Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (5), ISSN:0094-8276, ISSN:1944-8007

Although oak woodlands are a characteristic landscape component in the Swat Hindukush Mountain ranges, little is known about their current or historical stand population structure and regeneration dynamics related to environmental variables. Therefore, the present study assessed the stand structure, regeneration status, and relationship of oak communities with environmental variables. The study assessed 30 oak-dominated forest sites using the quadrates method, sampling 300 quadrates for evaluating the phytosociological and environmental variables. The stand structures of forests were dominated by four oak species, i.e., Quercus incana, Quercus baloot, Quercus dilatata, and Quercus semecarpifolia, distributed along with the elevation. The lower elevation stand structures were most diverse and dominated by Q. incana, having higher stand parameters, i.e., importance value index, basal area, and density. In contrast, the higher-elevation stand structures were dominated by Q. semecarpifolia, having stand parameters in moderate measures, while those at intermediate elevations have lower stand parameters. The environmental variables were negatively correlated with the stand structures, i.e., elevation (r = −0.51), precipitation (r = −0.47), and relative humidity (r = −0.77), whereas soil nutrients such as Potassium concentration have a significant negative relation with stands structure (r = −0.66) indicating their vital role in sustaining the oak communities. The communities were fairly regenerated, with an age structure between 12–36 years, indicating young communities. These results concluded that the observed wide range of variability in stand characteristics reflects the mechanisms that have shaped them. The recent anthropogenic factors, i.e., military operations and natural hazards such as the flood of 2010, have deliberately affected the communities under natural restoration.

Natural gas is considered a bridging technology in the energy transition because it produces fewer carbon emissions than coal, for example. However, when leaks exist, methane is released into the atmosphere, leading to a dramatic increase in the carbon footprint of natural gas, as methane is a much stronger greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Therefore, we conducted a detailed study of methane emissions from gas-powered end-use appliances and then compared their climate impacts with those of electricity-powered appliances. We used the Munich Oktoberfest as a case study and then extended the study to 25 major natural gas consuming countries. This showed that electricity has been the more climate-friendly energy source at Oktoberfest since 2005, due to the extensive use of renewable electricity at the festival and the presence of methane emissions, particularly caused by the incomplete combustion of natural gas in cooking and heating appliances. By contrast, at the global level, our study shows that natural gas still produces lower end-use carbon emissions than electricity in 18 of the 25 countries studied. However, as the share of renewable energy in the electricity mix steadily increases in most countries, the carbon footprint of electricity will be lower than that of natural gas in these countries in the near future. These findings from our comparison of the total carbon emissions of electric and gas-powered end-use appliances can help inform the debate on how to effectively address climate change., Earth's Future, 11 (2), ISSN:2328-4277

Le Territoire de l’agglomération du Grand Nador au Nord Est du Maroc vit à présent une profonde dynamique spatiale et territoriale (densification, concentration et ac-cueil d’activités multiples). Proportionnellement à cette dynamique de taille, le pro-cessus de l’urbanisation éprouve des difficultés énormes. Sans se soucier de la présence des risques naturels, souvent dissimulés dans une approche d’un urban-isme dit de rattrapage, ce territoire a vu sa vulnérabilité augmentée. Plus il y a la crise d’urbanisation plus il y a le recours au dispositif du rattrapage, ainsi les dispositions du rattrapage ne font que complexer davantage la gestion urbaine, ces opérations ne reflètent pas encore l’intégration de ces quartiers dans le plan global. Pour saisir l’ensemble de ces rapports, une approche holistique a été déployée, où plusieurs démarches ont été adoptées: Alors, si la démarche historique était utile pour connai-tre la naissance de cette urbanisation déraillée, les séances du travail et le question-naire ont été très bénéfiques pour mesurer des paramètres territoriaux. Tandis que les excursions ont été une opportunité pour comparer les résultats obtenus avec la réalité. Grand Nador is characterised by a deep spatial and territorial dynamic linked to the economic, social and environmental changes of this territory. In proportion to this size dynamic, urbanization experiences enormous difficulties. Without worrying about the presence of natural risks, often concealed in a punctual and curative terri-torial management of a remedial urbanism, this territory has seen its vulnerability increased. The more there is the urbanization crisis, the more there is recourse to the catch-up mechanism, so the catch-up provisions only make urban management more complex, these operations do not yet reflect the integration of these districts into the overall plan. To grasp the relationship between this remedial urban planning and the acceleration of natural risks. A holistic approach was deployed, several ap-proaches were adopted: So, if the historical approach was useful to know the birth of this derailed urbanization, the work sessions and the questionnaire were very bene-ficial to measure territorial parameters. While the excursions were an opportunity to compare the results obtained with reality. El territorio de la aglomeración de Grand Nador, situado en el nordeste de Marrue-cos, se caracteriza actualmente por una profunda dinámica de transformación espa-cial y territorial, vinculada a los cambios económicos, sociales y ambientales que experimenta. En proporción a la intensidad de esta dinámica, el proceso de urbani-zación evidencia enormes dificultades. Sin preocuparse por la presencia de riesgos naturales, muchas veces encubiertos en una gestión territorial puntual y curativa de un urbanismo reparador, este territorio está viendo incrementada su vulnerabilidad. Cuanto mayores son los problemas urbanísticos, más se recurre al mecanismo de recuperación, lo que conlleva que la propia gestión urbanística sea más compleja, teniendo en cuenta además que las actuaciones implementadas, aún no reflejan la integración de los distritos afectados en el plan general. El objetivo de esta investiga-ción es, por tanto, comprender la relación entre este urbanismo reparador y la ace-leración de los riesgos naturales. Para ello, metodológicamente, se utiliza un enfoque holístico y se han adoptado varios enfoques: el histórico, en tanto resulta útil para conocer el origen y desarrollo de los procesos de desarrollo urbano y actuaciones e impactos que se han ido generando; las sesiones de trabajo y el cuestionario, ya que resultan muy interesantes para para poder medir parámetros territoriales de inte-rés; y, finalmente, las excursiones, debido a que resultaron una oportunidad intere-sante para comparar los resultados obtenidos con la realidad.

Path dependency occurs when a contingent event predetermines what further steps can be taken and self-reinforcing mechanisms lock-in any further development on a sub-optimal trajectory. Path dependency is a prominent concept in the adaptation pathways literature, but insufficiently defined and operationalised. The present paper empirically tracks all constitutive elements of path dependency for four decades of flood risk management (FRM) in two alpine mountain regions in Austria, the Ennstal and Aist river catchments, using a mixed-methods approach. FRM governance has a critical role whether decisions lead to path dependency. Lock-in manifests not just in technical structures, but also in inertia of incumbent actor coalitions and management paradigms. Sub-optimality is hard to assess for lack of clearly defined protection targets; however, it appears in the ways that structural measures are implemented—too little, too late or with negative impacts on nature conservation. Past floods do not qualify as contingent events, as they have not fundamentally changed FRM practice. By contrast, technological and institutional shifts over longer periods, such as digital hazard maps and EU directives, have gradually reoriented FRM strategies. Institution-based self-reinforcing mechanisms are more prevalent than technology-based self-reinforcing mechanisms. Established actor coalitions combined with institutional density illustrate how those in charge uphold a path to defend their position, power and resources. Our recommendations for how to overcome path dependency in FRM governance are: encourage niche experiments, link FRM more closely with climate change adaptation, revise the national policy framework towards polycentric governance approaches and improve professional training., Regional Environmental Change, 23 (1), ISSN:1436-3798, ISSN:1436-378X

Italy was the first European country to experience a rapid increase in confirmed cases and deaths of the novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This study explains how COVID-19 transmitted so rapidly in northern Italy, analysing the underlying relationships between infected people and environmental, demographic, and geographical factors that influenced its spread. This study analyses data on COVID-19 cases alongside environmental data. This study finds out that cities with little wind, high humidity and frequently high levels of air pollution — exceeding safe levels of ozone or particulate matter — had higher numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths. Overall, then, results here suggest that that geo-environmental factors may have accelerated the spread of COVID-19 in northern Italian cities, leading to a higher number of infected individuals and deaths.Keywords. Air pollution; Environment and health; Natural hazards; Risk assessment; Urban environment; Sustainable development and policy assessment; Sustainable Growth.JEL. F64, I10, I18, I19, H75, H84, Q50, Q51, Q52, Q53, Q55, Q58.

ilustraciones, fotografías a color, mapas a color, planos Este trabajo presenta un análisis a nivel de calibración y contraste de tres (3) metodologías diferentes para la zonificación del riesgo ante fenómenos de remoción en masa, aplicadas en un deslizamiento de 200 metros de ancho por 300 metros de largo, ocurrido en la urbanización Portal de La Villa, al norte de la pista del Aeropuerto de Pereira en junio de 2019. Con estos resultados se buscó obtener una herramienta que permita evaluar y cualificar el riesgo por deslizamiento aplicable a otros sectores. Esta nueva metodología de evaluación se aplicó a un corredor de 2275 metros de largo por 300 metros de ancho, en el mismo sector norte de la Pista del Aeropuerto de Pereira, el cual conserva condiciones similares topográficas y geológicas. La primera metodología de análisis es la propuesta por el Servicio Geológico Colombiano – Universidad Nacional en el año 2016, método para el cual se realizó la zonificación de riesgo a los deslizamientos ocurridos en la urbanización Portal de la Villa en los años 2019 y 2020. La segunda metodología, se denomina HSQI (Hillslope Quality Index) propuesta por la Escuela de Minas de la Universidad de Nancy en 1989 (Francia), cuya aplicabilidad principal es la de permitir la evaluación de riesgo por deslizamientos en grandes zonas o corredores; haciendo acopio de teorías de análisis de varios autores para obtener valores de susceptibilidad a deslizamiento y a partir de ahí mapas de amenaza, vulnerabilidad y riesgo. La tercera se denomina Hazard US (HAZUS) propuesta por la Agencia Federal de Manejo de Desastres de los Estados Unidos de América (FEMA), el cual propone una zonificación de riesgo por movimientos en masa inducidos por sismo a partir de una robusta base de datos de sismicidad, información geológica y de curvas de daño de diferentes tipos de estructuras. Los resultados obtenidos demostraron que la metodología del SGC–UN (2016), aplicada en 2019; fue muy acertada en la evaluación de la amenaza, particularmente en la proyección de la morfología y corona de rotura de un segundo deslizamiento, el cual se produjo realmente a mediados de 2020; situación que permitió en campo, una real verificación de resultados y, con base en ellos, calibrar las metodologías de evaluación de riesgo para grandes áreas como son HAZUS y HSQI; obteniendo con esta última datos muy ajustados a la realidad en la magnitud de los deslizamientos ocurridos en el área. (Texto tomado de la fuente) This work presents an analysis at the level of calibration and contrast of three (3) different methodologies for the assessment of risk applied in a landslide of 200 meters wide by 300 meters long, which occurred in the Portal de La Villa Urbanization (Site 1) located on north of the Pereira Airport in june 2019. With these results, it aims to obtain a tool that allows evaluating and qualifying the landslide risk and will be applicable to other sectors. This evaluation methodology was applied to a corridor 2,275 meters long by 300 meters wide, in the same sector of the Pereira Airport (Site 2), which preserves similar topographical and geological conditions. The first analysis methodology is the one proposed by the Geological Colombian Service – National of Colombia University (SGC-UNAL) in 2016, method for which the risk zoning was carried out for the landslides that occurred in the Portal de la Villa urbanization in the years 2019 and 2020. The second methodology is HSQI (Hillslope Quality Index) proposed by the School of Mines of the Nancy University in 1989 (France), whose main applicability is to allow landslide risk assessment in large areas; collecting analysis theories from various authors to obtain values of susceptibility to change and from there hazard, vulnerability and risk maps. The third methodology valued is Hazard US (HAZUS) proposed by the Federal Disaster Management Agency of the United States of America (FEMA), which proposes a risk zoning for earthquake-induced mass movements based on a robust database of seismicity, geological information and damage curves of different structures. The results showed that the SGC-UN methodology (2016), applied in 2019; it was very successful in evaluating the threat, particularly in the projection of the morphology and failure crown of a second landslide, which occurred in 2020; situation that allowed in the field, a real verification of results and, based on them, calibrate the risk assessment methodologies for large areas such as HAZUS and HSQI; obtaining these last data very adjusted to reality in the magnitude of the landslides that occurred in the area. Maestría Estudios de Riesgo por Amenazas Naturales – Deslizamientos

Great earthquakes along the Nankai megathrust in south-western Japan feature in the top priority list of Japan’s disaster management agenda. In May 2019, an alert system was incepted to issue public warnings when the probability of an earthquake occurrence along the Nankai megathrust became higher than usual. One of the cases that trigger the issuance of public warnings is when a great earthquake occurred and another one of the same scale is anticipated within a short period of time. Although such “twin ruptures” have occurred multiple times along the Nankai megathrust, the quantification of the probability of such twin ruptures has never been attempted. Based on global statistics and local earthquake occurrence history, we estimated the probability of a successive occurrence of two M8 or larger earthquakes within 3 years globally and along the Nankai megathrust to be 5.0–18% and 4.3–96%, respectively. The timing of the second earthquake followed the Omori–Utsu law in global statistics, which allowed the estimation of the probability for the successive occurrence of Nankai megathrust earthquakes in arbitrary time frames. The predicted probability for the one-week timeframe was 100–3600-fold higher than that of the norm, endorsing the necessity for the warning scheme., 南海トラフ巨大地震が連続発生する確率を算出. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2023-01-24.

This thesis explores in five empirical papers the political economy of natural disasters using the case study of Iran. Within these five chapters, the social and economic consequences of natural disasters are evaluated on different levels, namely province level, county level, and individual level. In the first paper (Chapter 2), I study the relationship between natural disasters and economic growth, using a spatial Durbin panel model and covering the period from 2010 to 2016 and including 29 Iranian provinces. The results of the empirical investigation suggest that there is a statistically significant positive relationship between the spatially lagged occurrence of natural disasters and the change of the first difference of the natural logarithm of GDP per capita. This confirms the existence of spatial spillover effects of natural disasters to neighboring provinces. The second paper (Chapter 3) examines the impact of the 2003 Bam earthquake in the Iranian Kerman Province, using the synthetic control method (SCM) and nighttime light (NTL) data from 1992 to 2020 for 31 provinces and 429 counties. According to the results, Kerman Province, Bam County, and the neighboring counties experienced a boost in economic activity in the years following the earthquake, which can be explained by the type and severity of the event, the underlying composition of the economy, the total area impacted, and the international media attention. With the same methodology, the third paper (Chapter 4) studies the impact of the 2001 flood in Golestan Province and found a drop of economic activity in the years following the flood disaster. In the fourth paper (Chapter 5), we have investigated the state of disaster literacy in Tehran City, based on a survey with 502 participants which was conducted in 2020/2021. The results of the empirical investigation using logistic regressions suggest that the household’s income level, the trust in Iran’s natural disaster management, the fear of natural disasters, the perceived frequency of natural disasters, and internet usage show positive associations with the disaster literacy items. Additionally, we reveal a spatial inequality within Tehran City, where the Northern subsample has significantly higher scores of the self-developed disaster literacy index (DLI) than the Southern subsample. Finally, the fifth paper (Chapter 6) studies the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the family development in Iran with a representative survey of 1214 participants which was conducted in 2022. The results of the empirical investigation using logistic regressions suggest that the concern about the continuation of the pandemic and the respondents’ vaccination status show negative associations with childbirth during the pandemic, and the experiences of life loss and job loss are positively associated with a decrease of the respondents’ child desires. In contrast, spending more time with the family is positively associated with an increase of the respondents’ child desires. The experience of unemployment due to the pandemic is positively associated with marriage during the pandemic. Additionally, we found heterogenous effects depending on the respondents’ gender, location, and social class. Overall, the results show how the COVID-19 pandemic affected marriage and fertility dynamics, and thus demographic development, in Iran.

Presentation by Ross Roberts (Auckland Council)

Since ancient times, mankind has faced a constant battle against natural hazards. From the earlieststages of human communication, when human beings communicate by some sort of harsh gruntsand unintelligible words, people were struck by the awe-inspiring power of nature as floods, storms,earthquakes, and other events which reshaped their environment and way of living. However,among these events, droughts have been particularly devastating, and have left a profound mark onhuman history. Throughout centuries, droughts have forced communities to adapt and evolve in response tochanging environmental conditions. In California, the frequency and severity of droughts haveincreased in recent decades, leading to significant changes in land use patterns. These changes haveimpacted the economy, social structure, and ecology of the region, making the study of land usechanges after drought periods a crucial area of research. In this master thesis, the effects of droughts on land use in California will be deeply explored,analysing the outcome and impacts resulting from extreme dry events in the state, and identifyingpotential climate adaptation actions that can be implemented based on an enhanced understandingof the consequences of droughts on land use. By understanding the complex relationship betweendroughts and land use, mankind may better prepare and adapt to the challenges posed by futureclimate change and other environmental stressors. Sedan urminnes tider har mänskligheten stått inför en ständig kamp mot naturliga faror. Ända frånde tidigaste stadierna av mänsklig kommunikation, när människor kommunicerade genom någonform av hårda grymtningar och obegripliga ord, har människor imponerats av naturens mäktigakraft i form av översvämningar, stormar, jordbävningar och andra händelser som omformat derasmiljö och levnadssätt. Bland dessa händelser har torka varit särskilt förödande och har satt djupaspår i mänsklighetens historia. Under århundraden har torkor tvingat samhällen att anpassa sig och utvecklas som svar påförändrade miljöförhållanden. I Kalifornien har frekvensen och allvaret av torkor ökat under desenaste decennierna, vilket har lett till betydande förändringar i markanvändningsmönster. Dessaförändringar har påverkat ekonomin, den sociala strukturen och ekologin i regionen, vilket görstudiet av markanvändningsförändringar efter torkperioder till ett avgörande forskningsområde. I denna masteruppsats kommer effekterna av torkor på markanvändningen i Kalifornien attutforskas ingående. Resultat och påverkan av extrema torkhändelser i delstaten kommer attanalyseras, och potentiella åtgärder för klimatanpassning kommer att identifieras baserat på en ökadförståelse för konsekvenserna av torkor för markanvändningen. Genom att förstå det komplexaförhållandet mellan torkor och markanvändning kan mänskligheten bättre förbereda sig ochanpassa sig till utmaningarna som framtidens klimatförändringar och andra miljömässigapåfrestningar medför.

Kinematic backward trajectories are used to globally quantify the contributions of temperature advection, adiabatic compression and diabatic processes to near-surface temperature anomalies (hereafter T ' ${T}{\prime }$) during the coldest day of each year (TN1day events) based on ERA5. Diabatic cooling dominates TN1day anomalies in the climatologically coldest regions, while advection forms TN1day anomalies over most ocean regions. Over most extratropical land masses, TN1day anomalies arise from a combination of both processes. The mean age and formation distance of TN1day anomalies vary strongly in space, from one to 8 days, and 500-5,500 km, respectively. Five distinct types of TN1day events are identified from these physical and spatio-temporal characteristics, and their geographical occurrence is investigated. Furthermore, advective, adiabatic and diabatic contributions typically cancel each other partially, but less so for the most intense TN1day events, which occur when the atmosphere's ability to dampen near-surface temperature anomalies is limited., Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (5), ISSN:0094-8276, ISSN:1944-8007

Presentation by DEVORA lead Professor Jan Lindsay

Sea level rise has the potential to exacerbate coastal flooding around the world, causing more frequent extreme sea levels, nuisance flooding and permanent inundation. Projecting diverse physical, environmental and socio-economic impacts to coastal communities across multi-decadal timeframes is vital for informed adaptation planning. However, this is increasingly uncertain and challenged by conflicting stakeholder priorities. This thesis develops an interdisciplinary approach to advance the planning of long-term adaptation pathways in the context of coastal flood risk management. Utilising three case studies in south-east Australia, it combines the strengths of robust decision making (RDM) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) – both prominent tools to support decision-making under conditions of uncertainty – together with solicited values-based information to make three novel advances towards flexible adaptation pathways planning. First, this thesis combines the strengths of RDM and DAPP for planning adaptation pathways by using scenario discovery to provide a multi-dimensional description of adaptation tipping points. The scenario discovery process uses an existing cluster finding algorithm to identify future conditions where adaptation policies no longer keep flood risk at tolerable levels. Combining RDM and DAPP is a novel approach in coastal flood risk management and scenario discovery provides greater visibility on the physical factors driving adaptation tipping points. Second, values-based information is integrated into the adaptation planning process in an attempt to consider subjective social and cultural impacts from coastal flooding. In this regard, the novel combination and explanatory value of lived and landscape values is investigated. Consideration of these more intangible effects are often omitted in coastal adaptation planning but can contribute to more informed adaptation decisions. Third, the combined RDM and DAPP method developed uses both geographic information system (GIS) software and open source programming tools to analyse flood impacts. This improves the usability and relevance of a combined RDM and DAPP approach, enabling the efficient redeployment and customisation of the method to suit different location-specific needs. Such an approach also provides a lower cost entry point for local government agencies to begin planning coastal adaptation pathways. Each of these advances combine to provide a framework that improves the way coastal adaptation pathways are planned and developed. The findings elucidated from the case studies show how a combined RDM and DAPP approach can account for spatial and temporal interactions between hazard, exposure and vulnerability flood risk factors, which improves the way robustness is measured for adaptation policy options. Values-based approaches can shape the selection of adaptation objectives, improve the design of options, support the evaluations of adaptation pathways and inform monitoring systems. The resultant adaptation pathways framework can support local government in planning sustainable strategies to manage long-term flood impacts. This has global applications for coastal flood risk management that will become increasingly important throughout the coming century.

We have analysed past transformations in Switzerland in four environmental domains, with the aim todraw conclusions for current challenges, such as the net‐zero transformation. The data comprise transcripts of interviews with experts in the field of biodiversity, forests, landscape and natural hazard research.

Presentation by University of Canterbury PhD student Shaurya Sood

Presentation by Massey University Associate Professor Carol Stewart

Presentation by University of Auckland Associate Professor Liam Wotherspoon

Presentation by Massey University Senior Research Fellow Kelvin Tapuke

This study aims to empirically explore if there is an association between climate-related disasters and climate mitigation policy change in middle-income countries. This is important for understanding future climate mitigation policy, as disasters are predicted to increase in both frequency and severity. I explore this by studying climate mitigation policy activity change among countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. The region is chosen due to a lack of previous studies in both the region specifically, as well as in middle-income countries generally. Due to uncertainties in the exact time lag between the disaster and policy response, different methods are used: one 5-year normalized scatterplot and two fixed effects (FE) regressions with 1- and 2-year time lags respectively. The results show no statistically significant effects between the variables when looking at a 1-year FE regression or a 5-year normalized scatterplot, however, it does find a negative correlation between extreme-impact events and affected people when using a 2-year FE regression. A possible interpretation of the results is that severe climate-related disasters pause climate mitigation policy development, but not the process of the policies already developed pre-disaster and that these are short-term effects. However, further studies are needed to confirm this.

Presentation by Massey University Lecturer Dr Lauren Vinnell