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One of the principal uncertainties when estimating population risk of late effects from epidemiological data is that few radiation-exposed cohorts have been followed up to extinction. Therefore, the relative risk model has often been used to estimate radiation-associated risk and to extrapolate risk to the end of life. Epidemiological studies provide evidence that children are generally at higher risk of cancer induction than adults for a given radiation dose. However, the strength of evidence varies by cancer site and questions remain about site-specific age at exposure patterns. For solid cancers, there is a large body of evidence that excess relative risk (ERR) diminishes with increasing age at exposure. This pattern of risk is observed in the Life Span Study (LSS) as well as in other radiation-exposed populations for overall solid cancer incidence and mortality and for most site-specific solid cancers. However, there are some disparities by endpoint in the degree of variation of ERR with exposure age, with some sites (e.g., colon, lung) in the LSS incidence data showing no variation, or even increasing ERR with increasing age at exposure. The pattern of variation of excess absolute risk (EAR) with age at exposure is often similar, with EAR for solid cancers or solid cancer mortality decreasing with increasing age at exposure in the LSS. We shall review the human data from the Japanese LSS cohort, and a variety of other epidemiological data sets, including a review of types of medical diagnostic exposures, also some radiobiological animal data, all bearing on the issue of variations of radiation late-effects risk with age at exposure and with attained age. The paper includes a summary of several oral presentations given in a Symposium on "Age effects on radiation response" as part of the 67th Annual Meeting of the Radiation Research Society, held virtually on 3-6 October 2021.

Following our previous report on the radiation dose-response for prostate cancer incidence rates in the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors, we re-evaluated the radiation-related risk adjusting for differences in baseline cancer incidence rates among three subsets of the LSS cohort defined by the timing of their first participation in biennial health examinations offered to the Adult Health Study (AHS) sub-cohort members and prostate-specific-antigen (PSA) testing status for AHS participants: 1. non-AHS participants, 2. AHS participants before receiving PSA test, and 3. AHS participants after receiving PSA test. We found a 2.9-fold increase in the baseline incidence rates among AHS participants after receiving PSA test. After adjusting for the PSA-testing-status effects on the baseline rates the estimated excess relative risk (ERR) per Gy was 0.54 (95% CI: 0.15, 1.05), which was almost identical to the previously reported unadjusted ERR estimate (0.57, 95% CI: 0.21, 1.00). The current results confirmed that, while the PSA testing among AHS participants increased the baseline incidence rates, it did not impact the radiation risk estimate, strengthening the previously reported dose-response relationship for prostate cancer incidence in the LSS. As the use of PSA tests continue in screening and medical settings, analyses of possible effects of PSA testing should be an important aspect of future epidemiological studies of the association between radiation exposure and prostate cancer.

The association between alcohol intake and stomach cancer risk remains controversial. We undertook a pooled analysis of data from six large‐scale Japanese cohort studies with 256 478 participants on this topic. Alcohol intake as ethanol was estimated using a validated questionnaire. The participants were followed for incidence of stomach cancer. We calculated study‐specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for stomach cancer according to alcohol intake using a Cox regression model. Summary HRs were estimated by pooling the study‐specific HRs using a random‐effects model. During 4 265 551 person‐years of follow‐up, 8586 stomach cancer cases were identified. In men, the multivariate‐adjusted HRs (95% CIs) of stomach cancer were 1.00 (0.87‐1.15) for occasional drinkers, and 1.00 (0.91‐1.11) for, Alcohol intake increased stomach cancer risk in men, and heavy drinkers showed a greater point estimate of risk for proximal cancer than for distal cancer.

BACKGROUND Leukaemias comprise a heterogenous group of haematological malignancies. In CONCORD-3, we analysed data for children (aged 0-14 years) and adults (aged 15-99 years) diagnosed with a haematological malignancy during 2000-14 in 61 countries. Here, we aimed to examine worldwide trends in survival from leukaemia, by age and morphology, in young patients (aged 0-24 years). METHODS We analysed data from 258 population-based cancer registries in 61 countries participating in CONCORD-3 that submitted data on patients diagnosed with leukaemia. We grouped patients by age as children (0-14 years), adolescents (15-19 years), and young adults (20-24 years). We categorised leukaemia subtypes according to the International Classification of Childhood Cancer (ICCC-3), updated with International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third edition (ICD-O-3) codes. We estimated 5-year net survival by age and morphology, with 95% CIs, using the non-parametric Pohar-Perme estimator. To control for background mortality, we used life tables by country or region, single year of age, single calendar year and sex, and, where possible, by race or ethnicity. All-age survival estimates were standardised to the marginal distribution of young people with leukaemia included in the analysis. FINDINGS 164 563 young people were included in this analysis: 121 328 (73·7%) children, 22 963 (14·0%) adolescents, and 20 272 (12·3%) young adults. In 2010-14, the most common subtypes were lymphoid leukaemia (28 205 [68·2%] patients) and acute myeloid leukaemia (7863 [19·0%] patients). Age-standardised 5-year net survival in children, adolescents, and young adults for all leukaemias combined during 2010-14 varied widely, ranging from 46% in Mexico to more than 85% in Canada, Cyprus, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, and Australia. Individuals with lymphoid leukaemia had better age-standardised survival (from 43% in Ecuador to ≥80% in parts of Europe, North America, Oceania, and Asia) than those with acute myeloid leukaemia (from 32% in Peru to ≥70% in most high-income countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania). Throughout 2000-14, survival from all leukaemias combined remained consistently higher for children than adolescents and young adults, and minimal improvement was seen for adolescents and young adults in most countries. INTERPRETATION This study offers the first worldwide picture of population-based survival from leukaemia in children, adolescents, and young adults. Adolescents and young adults diagnosed with leukaemia continue to have lower survival than children. Trends in survival from leukaemia for adolescents and young adults are important indicators of the quality of cancer management in this age group. FUNDING Children with Cancer UK, the Institut National du Cancer, La Ligue Contre le Cancer, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Swiss Re, Swiss Cancer Research foundation, Swiss Cancer League, Rossy Family Foundation, US National Cancer Institute, and the American Cancer Society.

BackgroundIn Japan, there are ongoing efforts to shift the gastric cancer prevention and control policy priorities from barium-based screening to Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori)-oriented primary prevention. A comprehensive summary of the evidence regarding the effects of H. pylori eradication on the risk of gastric cancer could inform policy decisions.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies evaluating the effectiveness of H. pylori eradication for the prevention of gastric cancer in otherwise healthy individuals (primary prevention) and early gastric cancer patients (tertiary prevention).ResultsIn total, 19 studies were included. Three moderate-quality observational cohort studies showed that H. pylori eradication may be associated with a decreased risk of gastric cancer in healthy asymptomatic Japanese people. There is moderate certainty regarding the effectiveness of H. pylori eradication in patients with gastrointestinal diseases, such as peptic ulcers. A meta-analysis of 10 observational studies with otherwise healthy individuals (mainly peptic ulcer patients) yielded an overall risk ratio of 0.34 (95% CI: 0.25–0.46). Regarding tertiary prevention, the overall risk ratio for developing metachronous gastric cancer was 0.50 (95% CI: 0.39–0.66) in the eradication group in a meta-analysis of nine studies involving early gastric cancer patients who underwent endoscopic resection.ConclusionH. pylori eradication is effective in preventing gastric cancer in the Japanese population, regardless of symptoms. Well-designed, large cohort studies are warranted to determine the long-term efficacy and safety of H. pylori eradication in the context of reducing the gastric cancer burden through population-based screening and treatment.

Prior studies reported the association of reproductive factors with breast cancer (BC), but the evidence is inconsistent. We conducted a pooled analysis of nine cohort studies in Japan to evaluate the impact of six reproductive factors (age at menarche/age at first birth/number of births/age at menopause/use of female hormones/breastfeeding) on BC incidence. We conducted analyses according to menopausal status at the baseline or at the diagnosis. Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were estimated by applying Cox proportional‐hazards model in each study. These hazard ratios were integrated using a random‐effects model. Among 187,999 women (premenopausal: 61,113, postmenopausal: 126,886), we observed 873 premenopausal and 1,456 postmenopausal cases. Among premenopausal women, use of female hormones significantly increased BC incidence (HR: 1.53 [1.04–2.25]). Although P value for trend was not significant for age at first birth and number of births (P for trend: 0.15 and 0.30, respectively), women giving first birth at ages ≥36 experienced significantly higher BC incidence than at ages 21–25 years, and women who had ≥2 births experienced significantly lower BC incidence than nulliparous women. Among postmenopausal women, more births significantly decreased BC incidence (P for trend: 0.03). Although P value for trend was not significant for age at first birth and age at menopause (P for trend: 0.30 and 0.37, respectively), women giving first birth at ages 26–35 years experienced significantly higher BC incidence than at ages 21–25 years, and women with age at menopause: ≥50 years experienced significantly higher BC incidence than age at menopause: ≤44 years. BC incidence was similar according to age at menarche or breastfeeding history among both premenopausal and postmenopausal women. In conclusion, among Japanese women, use of female hormones increased BC incidence in premenopausal women, and more births decreased BC incidence in postmenopausal women.

Although alcohol consumption is reported to increase the incidence of breast cancer in European studies, evidence for an association between alcohol and breast cancer in Asian populations is insufficient. We conducted a pooled analysis of eight large-scale population-based prospective cohort studies in Japan to evaluate the association between alcohol (both frequency and amount) and breast cancer risk with categorization by menopausal status at baseline and at diagnosis. Estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated in the individual cohorts and combined using random-effects models. Among 158 164 subjects with 2 369 252 person-years of follow-up, 2208 breast cancer cases were newly diagnosed. Alcohol consumption had a significant association with a higher risk of breast cancer in both women who were premenopausal at baseline (regular drinker compared to nondrinker: HR 1.37, 1.04-1.81, ≥23 g/d compared to 0 g/d: HR 1.74, 1.25-2.43, P for trend per frequency category: P = .017) and those who were premenopausal at diagnosis (≥23 g/d compared to 0 g/d: HR 1.89, 1.04-3.43, P for trend per frequency category: P = .032). In contrast, no significant association was seen in women who were postmenopausal at baseline or at diagnosis, despite a substantial number of subjects and long follow-up period. Our results revealed that frequent and high alcohol consumption are both risk factors for Asian premenopausal breast cancer, similarly to previous studies in Western countries. The lack of a clear association in postmenopausal women in our study warrants larger investigation in Asia.

We examined the mortality risks among 2463 individuals who were exposed in utero to atomic bomb radiation in Hiroshima or Nagasaki in August 1945 and were followed from October 1950 through 2012. Individual estimates of mother’s weighted absorbed uterine dose (DS02R1) were used. Poisson regression method was used to estimate the radiation-associated excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for cause-specific mortality. Head size, birth weight, and parents’ survival status were evaluated as potential mediators of radiation effect. There were 339 deaths (216 males and 123 females) including deaths from solid cancer (n = 137), lymphohematopoietic cancer (n = 8), noncancer disease (n = 134), external cause (n = 56), and unknown cause (n = 4). Among males, the unadjusted ERR/Gy (95% CI) was increased for noncancer disease mortality (1.22, 0.10–3.14), but not for solid cancer mortality (− 0.18

The paper proposes an approach to causal mediation analysis in nested case-control study designs, often incorporated with countermatching schemes using conditional likelihood, and we compare the method's performance to that of mediation analysis using the Cox model for the full cohort with a continuous or dichotomous mediator. Simulation studies are conducted to assess our proposed method and investigate the efficiency relative to the cohort. We illustrate the method using actual data from two studies of potential mediation of radiation risk conducted within the Adult Health Study cohort of atomic-bomb survivors. The performance becomes comparable to that based on the full cohort, illustrating the potential for valid mediation analysis based on the reduced data obtained through the nested case-control design.

Background Increasing proportions of smokers in Japan smoke Methods We performed a pooled analysis of 410 294 adults from nine population-based prospective cohort studies participating in the Japan Cohort Consortium. Cigarette-use data were collected at each study baseline in 1983–1994. Study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality were calculated using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression by CPD among current smokers and by age at cessation among former smokers, with never smokers as the referent group. Pooled HRs and CIs were computed using a random-effect model. Results The smoking prevalence was 54.5% in men and 7.4% in women. About 15.5% of male and 50.4% of female current smokers smoked 1–10 CPD (low-intensity). Both male and female low-intensity smokers had higher all-cause mortality risks than never smokers. Risks were further higher with increasing CPD in a dose–response manner. HRs (95% CIs) were 1.27 (0.97–1.66), 1.45 (1.33–1.59) and 1.49 (1.38–1.62) for 1–2, 3–5 and 6–10 CPD, respectively, in men; 1.28 (1.01–1.62), 1.49 (1.34–1.66) and 1.68 (1.55–1.81) for 1–2, 3–5 and 6–10 CPD, respectively, in women. Similar associations were observed for smoking-related causes of death. Among former low-intensity smokers, younger age at cessation was associated with lower mortality risk. Conclusions Smoking very low amounts was associated with increased mortality risks in Japan. All smokers should quit, even if they smoke very few CPD.

Radiation effects on colorectal cancer rates, adjusted for smoking, alcohol intake and frequency of meat consumption and body mass index (BMI) by anatomical subsite (proximal colon, distal colon and rectum) were examined in a cohort of 105,444 atomic bomb survivors. Poisson regression methods were used to describe radiation‐associated excess relative risks (ERR) and excess absolute rates (EAR) for the 1958–2009 period. There were 2,960 first primary colorectal cancers including 894 proximal, 871 distal and 1,046 rectal cancers. Smoking, alcohol intake and BMI were associated with subsite‐specific cancer background rates. Significant linear dose–responses were found for total colon (sex‐averaged ERR/Gy for 70 years old exposed at age 30 = 0.63, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.34; 0.98), proximal [ERR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.32; 1.44] and distal colon cancers [ERR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.04; 0.97], but not for rectal cancer [ERR = 0.023, 95% CI: −0.081; 0.13]. The ERRs for proximal and distal colon cancers were not significantly different (p = 0.41). The ERR decreased with attained age for total colon, but not for proximal colon cancer, and with calendar year for distal colon cancer. The ERRs and EARs did not vary by age at exposure, except for decreasing trend in EAR for proximal colon cancer. In conclusion, ionizing radiation is associated with increased risk of proximal and distal colon cancers. The ERR for proximal cancer persists over time, but that for distal colon cancer decreases. There continues to be no indication of radiation effects on rectal cancer incidence in this population., What's new? Increasing radiation dose is associated with elevated colon cancer incidence among atomic bomb survivors. Questions remain, however, about differences in radiation‐related increases in risk by anatomical subsite, particularly the proximal and distal colon and the rectum. In this study, analyses of radiation and colorectal cancer risk for Japanese atomic bomb survivors in the Life Span Study cohort show that ionizing radiation is associated specifically with elevated risk of proximal and distal colon cancers. Adjustment for body mass index and lifestyle factors had little effect on radiation risk estimates. No association was found between radiation exposure and rectal cancer.

In Japan, cervical cancer incidence has increased since the late 1990s especially among young women, despite a decreasing trend in most developed countries. Here, we examined age, period and birth cohort trends in cervical cancer incidence rates from 1985 to 2012. Incidence rates were ascertained using three population-based cancer registries and analyzed using Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models. We compared the findings in Japan to trends among Japanese-Americans in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Registries and among women in South Korea using the Korea Central Registry. Age-standardized incidence rates in Japan decreased by 1.7% per year (95% confidence interval - 3.3%, 0.0%) until 1997 and thereafter increased by 2.6% per year (1.1%, 4.2%). Incidence rates increased among women under age 50, were stable among women aged 50-54, and decreased or remained stable among women aged 55 and over. The age-standardized incidence rate ratio by birth cohort showed a U-shaped pattern with the lowest rates in women born in the late 1930s and 1940s. In comparison, women born before 1920 and after 1970 had about double the incidence. Increasing risk in recent birth cohorts was not evident in Japanese-American or South Korean women. The trends in Japan may be attributable to increasing prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection among young women. Screening and vaccination have been shown to be highly effective and would help reverse these trends.

Epidemiological evidence for a radiation effect on prostate cancer risk has been inconsistent and largely indicative of no or little effect. Here we studied prostate cancer incidence among males of the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivors in a follow-up from 1958 to 2009, eleven years more than was previously reported. During this period there were 851 incident cases of prostate cancer among 41,544 male subjects, doubling the total number of cases in the cohort. More than 50% of the cases were diagnosed among those who were less than 20 years of age at the time of the bombings and who were at, or near, the ages of heightened prostate cancer risks during the last decade of follow-up. In analyses of the radiation dose response using Poisson regression methods, we used a baseline-rate model that allowed for calendar period effects corresponding to the emergence of prostate-specific antigen screening in the general population as well as effects of attained age and birth cohort. The model also allowed for markedly increased baseline rates among the Adult Health Study participants between 2005 and 2009, a period during which a prostate-specific antigen test was included in Adult Health Study biennial health examinations. We found a significant linear dose response with an estimated excess relative risk (ERR) per Gy of 0.57 (95% CI: 0.21, 1.00, P = 0.001). An estimated 40 of the observed cases were attributed to radiation exposure from the bombings. There was a suggestion of the ERR decreasing with increasing age at exposure (P = 0.09). We found no indication of effects of smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index on the baseline risk of prostate cancer. The observed dose response strengthens the evidence of a radiation effect on the risk of prostate cancer incidence in the atomic bomb survivors.

There is limited evidence concerning the association between radiation exposure and ovarian cancer. We evaluated radiation risk of ovarian cancer between 1958 and 2009 among 62,534 female atomic bomb survivors in the Life Span Study cohort, adding 11 years of follow-up from the previously reported study. Poisson regression methods were used to estimate excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) for total ovarian cancer and according to tumor type. We assessed the modifying effect of follow-up period and other factors on the radiation risk. We ascertained 288 first primary ovarian cancers including 77 type 1 epithelial cancers, 75 type 2 epithelial cancers, 66 epithelial cancers of undetermined type and 70 other cancers. Radiation dose was positively, although not significantly, associated with risk of total ovarian cancer [ERR/Gy = 0.30, 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.22 to 1.11]. There was a suggestion of heterogeneity in radiation effects (P = 0.08) for type 1 (ERR/Gy = -0.32, 95% CI

Smoking has been consistently associated with the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in Western populations; however, evidence is limited and inconsistent in Asian people. To assess the association of smoking status, smoking intensity and smoking cessation with colorectal risk in the Japanese population, we performed a pooled analysis of 10 population-based cohort studies. Study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox's proportional hazards model and then pooled using a random-effects model. Among 363 409 participants followed up for 2 666 004 person-years, 9232 incident CRCs were identified. In men, compared with never smokers, ever smokers showed higher risk of CRC. The HRs (95% CI) were 1.19 (1.10-1.29) for CRC, 1.19 (1.09-1.30) for colon cancer, 1.28 (1.13-1.46) for distal colon cancer and 1.21 (1.07-1.36) for rectal cancer. Smoking was associated with risk of CRC in a dose-response manner. In women, compared with never smokers, ever smokers showed increased risk of distal colon cancer (1.47 [1.19-1.82]). There was no evidence of a significant gender difference in the association of smoking and CRC risk. Our results confirm that smoking is associated with an increased risk of CRC, both overall and subsites, in Japanese men and distal colon cancer in Japanese women.

Increasing proportions of smokers in Japan smoke10 cigarettes per day (CPD). Yet, the health risks of low-intensity smoking in Asia are poorly understood.We performed a pooled analysis of 410 294 adults from nine population-based prospective cohort studies participating in the Japan Cohort Consortium. Cigarette-use data were collected at each study baseline in 1983-1994. Study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality were calculated using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression by CPD among current smokers and by age at cessation among former smokers, with never smokers as the referent group. Pooled HRs and CIs were computed using a random-effect model.The smoking prevalence was 54.5% in men and 7.4% in women. About 15.5% of male and 50.4% of female current smokers smoked 1-10 CPD (low-intensity). Both male and female low-intensity smokers had higher all-cause mortality risks than never smokers. Risks were further higher with increasing CPD in a dose-response manner. HRs (95% CIs) were 1.27 (0.97-1.66), 1.45 (1.33-1.59) and 1.49 (1.38-1.62) for 1-2, 3-5 and 6-10 CPD, respectively, in men; 1.28 (1.01-1.62), 1.49 (1.34-1.66) and 1.68 (1.55-1.81) for 1-2, 3-5 and 6-10 CPD, respectively, in women. Similar associations were observed for smoking-related causes of death. Among former low-intensity smokers, younger age at cessation was associated with lower mortality risk.Smoking very low amounts was associated with increased mortality risks in Japan. All smokers should quit, even if they smoke very few CPD.

Background Histological classification of lung cancer is essential for investigations of carcinogenesis and treatment selection. We examined the temporal changes of lung cancer histological subtypes. Methods Lung cancer cases diagnosed in the Life Span Study cohort between 1958 and 1999 were collected from tumor registries (TR), mainly consisting of population-based cancer registries. A total of 1,025 cases were histologically reviewed according to the World Health Organization 2004 Classification by a panel of pathologists (PP). Sensitivity and specificity of diagnoses in TR were calculated, assuming that the diagnosis by PP was the gold standard. Results Sensitivity and specificity were 0.91 and 0.92 for adenocarcinoma (AD), respectively, and 0.92 and 0.94, respectively, for squamous cell carcinoma (SQ). They were similar for AD and SQ throughout the observation period. For small cell carcinoma (SM), sensitivity was low until about 1980 (0.47 in 1958-1969, and 0.61 in 1970-1979) and then became higher thereafter (0.98 in 1980-1989, and 0.95 in 1990-1999), whereas specificity was high during the whole period (range 0.99 to 1.00). Among 45 cases that were not reported as SM in TR but diagnosed as SM by PP, 16 cases were recorded as undifferentiated carcinoma in TR. Conclusion Diagnosis of AD and SQ of lung cancer were generally consistent between TR records and PP review, but SMs tended to be coded as other histological types until the 1970s.

Radiation exposure is among the few factors known to be associated with risk of central nervous system (CNS) tumors. However, the patterns of radiation risk by histological type, sex or age are unclear. We evaluated radiation risks of first primary glioma, meningioma, schwannoma, and other or not otherwise specified (other/NOS) tumors in the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors. Cases diagnosed between 1958 and 2009 were ascertained through population-based cancer registries in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. To estimate excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy), we fit rate models using Poisson regression methods. There were 285 CNS tumors (67 gliomas, 107 meningiomas, 49 schwannomas, and 64 other/NOS tumors) among 105,444 individuals with radiation dose estimates to the brain contributing 3.1 million person-years of observation. Based on a simple linear model without effect modification, ERR/Gy was 1.67 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.12 to 5.26) for glioma, 1.82 (95% CI: 0.51 to 4.30) for meningioma, 1.45 (95% CI: −0.01 to 4.97) for schwannoma, and 1.40 (95% CI: 0.61 to 2.57) for all CNS tumors as a group. For each tumor type, the dose-response was consistent with linearity and appeared to be stronger among males than among females, particularly for meningioma (P = 0.045). There was also evidence that the ERR/Gy for schwannoma decreased with attained age (P = 0.002). More than 60 years after the bombings, radiation risks for CNS tumors continue to be elevated. Further follow-up is necessary to characterize the lifetime risks of specific CNS tumors following radiation exposure.

As a follow-up to the comprehensive work on solid cancer incidence in the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors between 1958 and 1998, we report here on updated radiation risk estimates for upper digestive tract cancers. In this study, we added 11 years of follow-up (1958-2009), used improved radiation dose estimates, considered effects of smoking and alcohol consumption and performed dose-response analyses by anatomical sub-site. In examining 52 years'worth of data, we ascertained the occurrence of 394 oral cavity/pharyngeal cancers, 486 esophageal cancers and 5,661 stomach cancers among 105,444 subjects. The radiation risk for oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer, other than salivary gland, was elevated but not significantly so. In contrast, salivary gland cancer exhibited a strong linear dose response with excess relative risk (ERR) of 2.54 per Gy [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69 to 6.1]. Radiation risk decreased considerably with increasing age at time of exposure (-66% per decade, 95% CI: -88% to -32%). The dose response for esophageal cancer was statistically significant under a simple linear, linear-quadratic and quadratic model. Both linear-quadratic and quadratic models described the data better than a simple linear model and, of the two, the quadratic model showed a marginally better fit based on the Akaike Information Criteria. Sex difference in linear ERRs was not statistically significant; however, when the dose-response shape was allowed to vary by sex, statistically significant curvature was found among males, with no evidence of quadratic departure from linearity among females. The risk for stomach cancer increased significantly with dose and there was little evidence for quadratic departure from linearity among either males or females. The sex-averaged ERR at age 70 was 0.33 per Gy (95% CI: 0.20 to 0.47). The ERR decreased significantly (-1.93 power of attained age, 95% CI: -2.94 to -0.82) with increasing attained age, but not with age at exposure, and was higher in females than males (P = 0.02). Our results are largely consistent with the results of prior LSS analyses. Salivary gland, esophageal and stomach cancers continue to show significant increases in risk with radiation dose. Adjustment for lifestyle factors had almost no impact on the radiation effect estimates. Further follow-up of the LSS cohort is important to clarify the nature of radiation effects for upper digestive tract cancers, especially for oral cavity/pharyngeal and esophageal cancers, for which detailed investigation for dose-response shape could not be conducted due to the small number of cases.

Background Ionizing radiation is known to be capable of causing cancer of many organs, but its relationship with uterine cancer has not been well characterized. Methods We studied incidence of uterine cancer during 1958–2009 among 62 534 female atomic bomb survivors. Using Poisson regression analysis, we fitted excess relative risk (ERR) models to uterine cancer rates adjusted for several lifestyle and reproductive factors. Person-years at risk were also adjusted for the probability of prior hysterectomy, because it could affect the subsequent risk of uterine cancer. We assessed the modifying effect of age and other factors on the radiation risk. For analysis of the modifying effect of age at radiation exposure around menarche, we compared the radiation risk for several exposure-age categories as well as using parametric models. Results There were 224 uterine corpus cancers and 982 cervical cancers. We found a significant association between radiation dose and risk of corpus cancer (ERR per Gray [ERR/Gy] = 0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.03 to 1.87) but not for cervical cancer (ERR/Gy = 0.00, 95% CI = −0.22 to 0.31). For corpus cancer, we found statistically significant heterogeneity in ERR/Gy by age (Pheterogeneity = .001) with elevated risk for women exposed to radiation between ages 11 and 15 years (ERR/Gy = 4.10, 95% CI = 1.47 to 8.42) and no indication of a radiation effect for exposures before or after this exposure-age range. Conclusions The current data suggest that uterine corpus is especially sensitive to the carcinogenic effect of radiation exposure occurring during the mid-pubertal period preceding menarche. There is little evidence for a radiation effect on cervical cancer risk.

The importance of reproductive history in breast tissue development and etiology of sporadic breast cancer in females is well established. However, there is limited evidence of factors, other than age, that modify risk of radiation-related breast cancer. In this study, we evaluated breast cancer incidence in the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivors, adding 11 years of follow-up and incorporating reproductive history data. We used Poisson regression models to describe radiation risks and modifying effects of age and reproductive factors. Among 62,534 females, we identified 1,470 breast cancers between 1958 and 2009. Of 397 new cases diagnosed since 1998, 75% were exposed before age 20. We found a strong linear dose response with excess relative risk (ERR) of 1.12 per Gy [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73 to 1.59] for females at age 70 after exposure at age 30. The ERR decreased with increasing attained age ( P = 0.007) while excess absolute rate (EAR) increased with attained age up to age 70 ( P0.001). Age at menarche was a strong modifier of the radiation effect: for a given dose, both the ERR and EAR decreased with increasing age at menarche ( P = 0.007 and P0.001). Also, independently, age-at-exposure effects on ERR and EAR differed before and after menarche ( P = 0.043 and P = 0.015, respectively, relative to log-linear trends), with highest risks for exposures around menarche. Despite the small number of male breast cancers (n = 10), the data continue to suggest a dose response (ERR per Gy = 5.7; 95% CI: 0.3 to 30.8; P = 0.018). Persistently increased risk of female breast cancer after radiation exposure and its modification pattern suggests heightened breast sensitivity during puberty.

Summary Background No clear epidemiological hereditary effects of radiation exposure in human beings have been reported. However, no previous studies have investigated mortality into middle age in a population whose parents were exposed to substantial amounts of radiation before conception. We assessed mortality in children of the atomic bomb survivors after 62 years of follow-up. Methods In this prospective cohort study, we assessed 75 327 singleton children of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki and unexposed controls, born between 1946 and 1984, and followed up to Dec 31, 2009. Parental gonadal doses of radiation from the atomic bombings were the primary exposures. The primary endpoint was death due to cancer or non-cancer disease, based on death certificates. Findings Median follow-up was 54·3 years (IQR 45·4–59·3). 5183 participants died from disease. The mean age of the 68 689 surviving children at the end of follow-up was 53·1 years (SD 7·9) with 15 623 (23%) older than age 60 years. For parents who were exposed to a non-zero gonadal dose of radiation, the mean dose was 264 mGy (SD 463). We detected no association between maternal gonadal radiation exposure and risk of death caused by cancer (hazard ratio [HR] for 1 Gy change in exposure 0·891 [95% CI 0·693–1·145]; p=0·36) or risk of death caused by non-cancer diseases (0·973 [0·849–1·115]; p=0·69). Likewise, paternal exposure had no effect on deaths caused by cancer (0·815 [0·614–1·083]; p=0·14) or deaths caused by non-cancer disease (1·103 [0·979–1·241]; p=0·12). Age or time between parental exposure and delivery had no effect on risk of death. Interpretation Late effects of ionising radiation exposure include increased mortality risks, and models of the transgenerational effects of radiation exposure predict more genetic disease in the children of people exposed to radiation. However, children of people exposed to the atomic bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki had no indications of deleterious health effects after 62 years. Epidemiological studies complemented by sensitive molecular techniques are needed to understand the overall effects of preconception exposure to ionising radiation on human beings. Funding Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, US Department of Energy.

Risk of bile duct cancer among printing workers exposed to 1,2-dichloropropane and/or dichloromethane: Tomotaka SOBUE, et al. Department of Environmental Medicine and Population Sciences, Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka University— Objectives: We conducted a retrospective cohort study to examine the risk of bile duct cancer among current and former workers in the offset color proof printing department at a printing company in Osaka, Japan. Methods: Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) between January 1, 1985, and December 31, 2012, were estimated for the cumulative years of exposure to two chemicals, dichloromethane (DCM) and 1,2-dichlo- ropropane (1,2-DCP), using the national incidence level as a reference. In addition, we examined risk patterns by the calendar year in which observation started. Results: Among 106 workers with a total of 1,452.4 person-years of exposure, 17 bile duct cancer cases were observed, resulting in an estimated overall SIR of 1,132.5 (95% confidence interval (CI): 659.7−1,813.2). The SIR was 1,319.9 (95% CI: 658.9−2,361.7) for those who were exposed to both DCM and 1,2-DCP, and it was 1,002.8 (95% CI: 368.0−2,182.8) for those exposed to 1,2-DCP only. SIRs tended to increase according to years of exposure to 1,2-DCP but not DCM when a 5- year lag time was assumed. The SIRs were higher for the cohorts in which observation started in 1993−2000, particularly in cohorts in which it started in 1996−1999, compared with those in which it started before or after 1993−2000. Conclusions: We observed an extraor- dinarily high risk of bile duct cancer among the offset color proof printing workers. Elevated risk may be

The Life Span Study (LSS) of Japanese atomic bomb survivors is comprised of a large, population-based cohort offering one of the best opportunities to study the relationship between exposure to radiation and incidence of respiratory cancers. Risks of lung, laryngeal and other cancers of the respiratory system were evaluated among 105,444 LSS subjects followed from 1958 to 2009. During this period, we identified 2,446 lung, 180 laryngeal and 115 other respiratory (trachea, mediastinum and other ill-defined sites) first primary incident cancer cases. Ten additional years of follow-up, improved radiation dose estimates, revised smoking data, and updated migration information were used to investigate the joint effects of radiation and smoking using Poisson regression methods. For nonsmokers, the sex-averaged excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) for lung cancer (at age 70 after radiation exposure at age 30) was estimated as 0.81 (95% CI: 0.51, 1.18) with a female-to-male ratio of 2.83. There was no evidence of curvature in the radiation dose-response relationship overall or by sex. Lung cancer risks increased with pack-years of smoking and decreased with time since quitting smoking at any level of radiation exposure. Similar to the previously reported study, which followed cohort members through 1999, the ERR/Gy for lung cancer was significantly higher for low-to-moderate smokers than for heavy smokers, with little evidence of any radiation-associated excess risk in heavy smokers. Of 2,446 lung cancer cases, 113 (5%) could be attributed to radiation exposure. Of the 1,165 lung cancer cases occurring among smokers, 886 (76%) could be attributed to smoking. While there was little evidence of a radiation effect for laryngeal cancer, a nonsignificantly elevated risk of other respiratory cancers was observed. However, significant smoking effects were observed for both laryngeal (ERR per 50 pack-years = 23.57; 95% CI: 8.44, 71.05) and other respiratory cancers (ERR per 50 pack-years = 1.21; 95% CI: 0.10, 3.25).

In cohort studies, unbiased estimation of exposure-outcome associations requires selection of an appropriate reference group of unexposed individuals. We illustrate strategies for analyzing cohort data with multiple potential reference groups. We analyzed the association between radiation exposure and incidence of first primary solid cancer among 105,444 participants of the Life Span Study (Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, 1958–2009). Potential reference groups included zero-dose survivors at different ground distances from the hypocenter (internal) and city residents who were not in either city at the time of the bombings (external). DS02R1 weighted absorbed colon doses were estimated by the DS02 dosimetry system. Piecewise constant hazard models estimated excess relative risks of first primary solid cancer. We focused on sex-averaged excess relative risks and the shape of the dose–response curve. A model with internal standardization provided a sex-averaged excess relative risk of 0.510, 95% confidence interval: (0.414, 0.612) per gray of weighted absorbed colon dose, as well as strong evidence of a curvilinear dose response among males (P = 0.008). Selection of not-in-city residents as the reference group resulted in a larger excess relative risk of 0.560, 95% confidence interval: (0.467, 0.657) per gray, and reduced evidence of a curvilinear dose response among males (P = 0.042). These differences were particularly apparent at weighted absorbed colon doses

This is the third analysis of solid cancer incidence among the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, adding eleven years of follow-up data since the previously reported analysis. For this analysis, several changes and improvements were implemented, including updated dose estimates (DS02R1) and adjustment for smoking. Here, we focus on all solid cancers in aggregate. The eligible cohort included 105,444 subjects who were alive and had no known history of cancer at the start of follow-up. A total of 80,205 subjects had individual dose estimates and 25,239 were not in either city at the time of the bombings. The follow-up period was 1958–2009, providing 3,079,484 person-years of follow-up. Cases were identified by linkage with population-based Hiroshima and Nagasaki Cancer Registries. Poisson regression methods were used to elucidate the nature of the radiation-associated risks per Gy of weighted absorbed colon dose using both excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models adjusted for smoking. Risk estimates were reported for a person exposed at age 30 years with attained age of 70 years. In this study, 22,538 incident first primary solid cancer cases were identified, of which 992 were associated with radiation exposure. There were 5,918 cases (26%) that occurred in the 11 years (1999–2009) since the previously reported study. For females, the dose response was consistent with linearity with an estimated ERR of 0.64 per Gy (95% CI: 0.52 to 0.77). For males, significant upward curvature over the full dose range as well as restricted dose ranges was observed and therefore, a linear-quadratic model was used, which resulted in an ERR of 0.20 (95% CI: 0.12 to 0.28) at 1 Gy and an ERR of 0.010 (95% CI: −0.0003 to 0.021) at 0.1 Gy. The shape of the ERR dose response was significantly different among males and females [Formula: see text]. While there was a significant decrease in the ERR with increasing attained age, this decrease was more rapid in males compared to females. The lowest dose range that showed a statistically significant dose response using the sex-averaged, linear ERR model was 0–100 mGy [Formula: see text]. In conclusion, this analysis demonstrates that solid cancer risks remain elevated more than 60 years after exposure. Sex-averaged upward curvature was observed in the dose response independent of adjustment for smoking. Findings from the current analysis regarding the dose-response shape were not fully consistent with those previously reported, raising unresolved questions. At this time, uncertainties in the shape of the dose response preclude definitive conclusions to confidently guide radiation protection policies. Upcoming results from a series of analyses focusing on the radiation risks for specific organs or organ families, as well as continued follow-up are needed to fully understand the nature of radiation-related cancer risk and its public health significance. Data and analysis scripts are available for download at: http://www.rerf.or.jp.

In this retrospective study, we aimed to clarify the risk of developing a second primary cancer and to determine the periods of high risk of second primary cancers. Subjects were all patients who had been diagnosed with a first primary cancer and registered with the Nagasaki Prefecture Cancer Registry between 1985 and 2007. We calculated the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of second primary cancer according to site and years after diagnosis of the first primary cancer. A second primary cancer developed in 14 167 of 174 477 subjects (8.1%) during a median follow-up of 1.8 years. The SIR of all cancer was 1.10 (95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.11). Some specific relationships were observed between sites with risk factors in common, such as smoking, drinking, and hormone status. The SIRs were relatively high after approximately 10 years for all sites, and trends differ among cancer sites. We showed that cancer patients are at higher risk of a second primary cancer than the general population. In respect of the risk of a second primary cancer, physicians should be alert for cancers that have risk factors in common with the first primary cancer.

Background A report of multiple cases of bile duct cancer at a Japanese printing company raised concern about such cancers. We examined long-term trends in bile duct cancer in Japan. Methods Data from 4 population-based cancer registries were used to calculate incidence between 1985 and 2007, and vital statistics were used to estimate mortality between 1985 and 2011. Age-standardized rates were calculated and analyzed using a joinpoint regression model. Results Among men, the incidence rate of intrahepatic bile duct cancer increased throughout the observation period; among women, it increased until 1996–1998 and remained stable thereafter. The incidence rate of extrahepatic bile duct cancer was stable in men and decreased from 1993–1995 in women. In people aged 30 to 49 years, the incidence rates of intra- and extrahepatic bile duct cancer remained stable or decreased. The mortality rate of intrahepatic bile duct cancer increased in both sexes and in all age groups since 1996, while that of extrahepatic bile duct cancer decreased since 1992. In people aged 30 to 49 years, the mortality rates of intra- and extrahepatic bile duct cancer remained stable and decreased, respectively. Conclusions The incidence and mortality rates of intrahepatic bile duct cancer remained stable or increased throughout the observation period. The incidence rate of extrahepatic bile duct cancer remained stable or decreased, and the mortality rate decreased since 1992. In people aged 30 to 49 years, the incidence and mortality rates of intra- and extrahepatic bile cancer remained stable or decreased.

The Life Span Study (LSS) of atomic bomb survivors has consistently demonstrated significant radiation excess risks of liver cancer since the first cancer incidence report. We present updated information on radiation risks of liver, biliary tract, and pancreatic cancers based on 11 additional years of follow-up since the last report, from 1958 to 2009. The current analyses used improved individual radiation doses and accounted for the effects of alcohol consumption, smoking, and body mass index. The study participants included 105,444 LSS participants with known individual radiation dose and no known history of cancer at the start of follow-up. Cases were the first primary incident cancers of the liver (including intrahepatic bile duct), biliary tract (gallbladder and other and unspecified parts of biliary tract), or pancreas identified through linkage with population-based cancer registries in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Poisson regression methods were used to estimate excess relative risks (ERRs) and excess absolute risks (EARs) associated with DS02R1 doses for liver (liver and biliary tract cancers) or pancreas (pancreatic cancer). We identified 2,016 incident liver cancer cases during the follow-up period. Radiation dose was significantly associated with liver cancer risk (ERR per Gy: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.23 to 0.89; EAR per 10,000 person-year Gy: 5.32, 95% CI: 2.49 to 8.51). There was no evidence for curvature in the radiation dose-response (P=0.344). ERRs by age at exposure categories were significantly increased among those who were exposed at 0-9 years, 10-19 years, and 20-29 years, but not significantly increased after age 30 years, although there was no statistical evidence of heterogeneity in these ERRs (P=0.378). The radiation ERRs were not affected by adjustment for smoking, alcohol consumption, or body mass index. As in previous reports, radiation dose was not associated with risk of biliary tract cancer (ERR per Gy: −0.02, 95% CI: −0.25 to 0.30). Radiation dose was associated with a non-significant increase in pancreatic cancer risk (ERR per Gy: 0.38, 95% CI

Salivary gland neoplasms are uncommon, and their epidemiology in Japan has not been well described. We conducted a retrospective review of salivary gland tumors registered in the Hiroshima Tumor Tissue Registry over a period of 39 years. The subjects were 5015 cases ranging in age from 6 to 97 (mean, 54.3) years old. The incidence of both benign tumors and malignant tumors increased with age until 60&ndash, 69 years and then declined. Among the 5015 salivary gland neoplasms, 3998 (80%) were benign and 1017 (20%) were malignant. Pleomorphic adenoma (PA) was the most frequent benign tumor (68%), followed by Warthin tumor (26%). Adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) (27%) and mucoepidermoid carcinoma (MEC) (26%) were the two most frequent malignant tumors. Characteristically, there was a very low incidence of polymorphous adenocarcinoma in Japan. The average annual age-adjusted incidence rate per 100,000 population was 3.3 for benign tumors and 0.8 for malignant tumors. This is the large-scale multi-institutional analysis to describe the characteristics of salivary gland neoplasms, based on the pathological tissue registry data. We hope that the present data can contribute to early diagnosis and effective treatment of salivary gland tumors and to cancer prevention.

Aim: The relationship between preoperative anxiety level and intraoperative hypothermia (

We compared resistive heating (RH) and upper-body convective warming (CW) in 70 patients (RH 33, CW 31, 6 excluded) undergoing major abdominal surgery. The effect of RH was not inferior to that of CW for the time-weighted average core temperature, and the lower limit of 95% CW was greater than -0.5 degrees C. Resistive heating showed no inferiority in maintaining core temperature compared with convective warming.

Three kinds of survival rates are generally used depending on the purpose of the investigation: overall, cause-specific, and relative. The differences among these 3 survival rates are derived from their respective formulas; however, reports based on actual cancer registry data are few because of incomplete information and short follow-up duration recorded on cancer registration. The aim of this study was to numerically and visually compare these 3 survival rates on the basis of data from the Nagasaki Prefecture Cancer Registry. Subjects were patients diagnosed with cancer and registered in the registry between 1999 and 2003. We calculated the proportion of cause of death and 5-year survival rates. For lung, liver, or advanced stage cancers, the proportions of cancer-related death were high and the differences in survival rates were small. For prostate or early stage cancers, the proportions of death from other causes were high and the differences in survival rates were large. We concluded that the differences among the 3 survival rates increased when the proportion of death from other causes increased.

In previous studies we predicted future trends in cancer incidence for each prefecture in order to plan cancer control. Those predictions, however, did not take into account the characteristics of each prefecture. We therefore used the results of age-period-cohort analysis of incidence and mortality data of Osaka, and estimated the incidence and mortality of cancers at all sites and selected sites. The results reflect the characteristics of Osaka, which has and is expected to have large number of patients with liver cancer. We believe our results to be useful for planning and evaluating cancer control activities in Osaka. It would be worthwhile to base the estimation of cancer incidence and mortality in each prefecture on each population-based cancer registry.

INTRODUCTION: The frequency of colorectal cancer (CRC) is dependent on sex and age. The illness more often affects men than women, and a considerable increase in morbidity is noted after 65 years of age. The aim of the study was to assess the influence of various risk factors on CRC morbidity, statistical data from countries varied in cultural, socioeconomic and biological terms need to be studied. Poland and Japan can serve as examples of such contrasts. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The basis for the analysis of CRC morbidity was statistical data from Poland and Japan gathered in the period 1999-2006. They were expressed in absolute numbers and were related to the total morbidity, as well as morbidity according to sex and age. RESULTS: In the years 1999-2006, the total morbidity in Japan was on average 2.3 times higher than in Poland. The value was 2.5 times higher among men and 2.1 times among women when compared to Poland. In both countries morbidity is closely related to age and it reaches a peak between 65 and 74 years of age. Although the change in morbidity over the period was the same for Poland and Japan, there are considerable differences concerning the sex of the patients. CONCLUSIONS: There is a substantial increase in CRC morbidity in both countries, especially among elderly people, which may point to the predominant influence of environmental factors and population aging in both countries. The much higher increase in morbidity among Polish men when compared to Polish women, not observed in the Japanese population, requires further study.

Cancer has been the primary cause of death in Japan for many years and accurate cancer incidence data are necessary in order to make plans for cancer control. Although population-based cancer registries are the best answer, regrettably there are still many regions with low accuracy registries. In an alternative estimation, cancer incidences have been analyzed by age-period-cohort (APC) models, allowing future prediction of cancer incidences in 2004. Considering the unexpectedly rapid aging of the Japanese population after this figure was reported, it would be worthwhile to examine more recent data. In this study, we therefore projected major cancer incidences based on the earlier results leaving estimated values for the age and cohort effects. Relating to the period effect, the most adequate scenario was selected from 12 projection methods. Furthermore, incidences when registration rates varied between 70 and 100% were calculated. As a result, different trends from reported incidences were observed for liver cancer in males, and trends of registration rates differed by sites. Until stable accurate registration data become available, it is difficult to judge whether predicted increase is real or only looks so because the registration rate is not 100%. However, it is clearly necessary to continuously observe variation in cancer incidences.

In medical care systems for cancer, it is important to consider the issues of standardization and centralization. In this study, we employed the Nagasaki Cancer Registry, which has a high registry rate, to investigate standardization and centralization for five major cancers, in addition to childhood malignancies (which are often rare types). Subjects were patients diagnosed with cancer and registered in the Nagasaki Cancer Registry between 1985 and 2004. For standardization, we calculated a Preference Index and five-year survival rate, and for centralization we investigated Pareto curves and Gini coefficients as well as the annual average number of cases per hospital. Results suggested that patients migrate to medical service areas different from where they reside in order to receive treatment at facilities thought to have a better record of treatment. In addition, while the number of patients and treatment facilities for childhood cancer was decreasing due to a decline in the number of children, the centralized tendency differed for the 12 diagnoses assessed. By conducting analyses based on population-based cancer registries using the evaluation methods employed in this study, it should be possible to investigate patients' migrant patterns, as well as to develop systems for providing medical care in secondary medical service areas.