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In the context of the debate on Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) under inflation targeting regimes, this study analysis the ERPT in inflation targeting and non-targeting economies of ASEAN-5. Employing a Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (N-ARDL) framework on data from 2000: Q1 to 2019 Q:4, our key empirical findings suggest that the exchange rate shocks do lead to significant changes in inflation. There is also prima facie evidence of asymmetric effects of exchange rate shocks in Singapore, Philippines, and Indonesia and the results varied between and among inflation targeting and non-targeting countries. The results also varied in the short and long-terms, whereas in the long-run, asymmetric effects of real exchange rate persist only for Indonesia and Singapore. Regardless of the inflation targeting or non-targeting regime, oil price shocks are found to be the most crucial factor with the largest impact on inflation in ASEAN-5 economies. Money supply and output growth also found to have some effect on inflation, though the results varied among countries. Our findings have profound implication for monetary policy formulation and price stability.

In auspicious macroeconomic setting, monetary policy should increase credit availability, particularly in the real sector, to spur investment; however, this is not the case in the Nigerian economy. In this study, the impact of monetary policy on bank credit and investment in Nigeria from 1981 to 2020 was investigated. The central bank of Nigeria’s statistics bulletin was the source of the data used in this study. Using the data gathered, the study used Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The study’s findings indicate that bank loans and investment have a long-term association with monetary policy. In addition, it was observed that while bank loans to the private sector and the liquidity ratio had short-term negative effects on investment, the cash reserve ratio, monetary policy, money supply, and inflation rate had long-term positive effects on investment. According to the study’s findings, monetary policy significantly and favorably affects bank credit and investment in Nigeria. The study suggested that the CBN adjust the monetary policy rate by reducing the cash reserve ratio, which will increase liquidity and allow the banks to discharge their credit capacity with the aim of improving investment in Nigeria. Monetary authorities should view credit as a major channel for implementing monetary policies, and this urgent adjustment should be made.

Purpose: The aim of this research is to investigates the correlation between monetary policy and economic growth in Jordan during the period from 2008 to 2022. The study evaluates significant macroeconomic indicators, including inflation rate, interest rate, money supply, and economic growth, within and beyond the specified time frame. The objective of this study is to assess the influence of monetary policy on economic growth through the utilization of the statistical technique of least squares regression. Accurate results are obtained using EViews, a widely recognized statistical program. The data for this study is sourced from reputable institutions such as the World Bank and Trading Economics. Theoretical framework: The importance of this study holds great significance as it aims to examine the link between monetary policy and the growth of the economy, a topic that has been the subject of extensive theoretical and policy discussions among economists over a significant period. Given the current economic conditions characterized by slow growth and concerns about potential deflation, as well as perceived constraints on economic policies, there is heightened interest in understanding this relationship. Consequently, the debate surrounding this issue has occasionally become intense and contentious. Design/Methodology/Approach: The Methodology plays a crucial role in scientific research as it provides researchers with a framework to follow in order to achieve objective and reliable results. The choice of methodology may vary depending on the academic discipline, with each approach having its own unique characteristics and functions that are utilized by researchers in their respective fields of specialization. In the context of this particular study, a descriptive approach was adopted for the theoretical aspect, while an analytical approach was employed for the practical aspect. By collecting macroeconomic indicators as time series data from 2008 to 2022, the study aimed to investigate the interconnection implementation of monetary policy and the growth of the economy. To examine the stability of the variables, unit root tests were employed, and the data utilized in the study was obtained from reliable sources such as the World Bank and Trading Economics. Findings: The result of this analysis reveals significant findings regarding the influence of various factors on economic growth from 2008 to 2022. The findings reveal a statistically significant negative association between the inflation rate and economic growth, with a significance level of 0.05. Based on this finding, the null hypothesis (H0) is rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis (H1). However, the study determines that the impact of the interest rate on economic growth is not statistically significant at the 0.05 significance level. Consequently, the null hypothesis (H0) is accepted, and the alternative hypothesis (H1) is rejected. Finally, the analysis reveals a statistically significant positive relationship between money supply and economic growth, with a significance level of 0.05. As a result, the study rejects the null hypothesis (H0) and supports the alternative hypothesis (H1). These findings offer valuable insights into the connection between monetary policy and economic growth within the specified timeframe. The study highlights the need for further comprehensive research on the factors influencing the growth of the Jordanian economy. Specifically, it emphasizes the importance of investigating various indicators of monetary policy and their effects on economic growth in Jordan. It is recommended to consider inflation rate policies and implement economic reform measures to mitigate the adverse impacts of inflation on economic growth in the country. Furthermore, careful attention should be given to money supply and the policies implemented by relevant institutions, particularly regarding the circulation of money, due to its positive influence on economic growth. Research, practical & social implications: The aims of this study is to examine the interplay between various monetary policy instruments and the dynamics of economic growth, with a specific focus on the context of Jordan. The objective of this study is to assess the influence of monetary policy on economic growth through the utilization of the statistical technique of least squares regression. Accurate results are obtained using EViews, a widely recognized statistical program. The data for this study is sourced from reputable institutions such as the World Bank and Trading Economics.

In recent years, we have lived through times of unprecedented money and credit creation, which has prompted a new interest in the role of money and credit in the economy. In this work, I show that the money multiplier, the ratio of a broad monetary aggregate to a narrow monetary aggregate, captures the rate of money creation in the economy and robustly predicts stock, bond and currency returns. I link the predictive ability of the money multiplier to its economic interpretations as a measure of economy-wide leverage and an alternative measure of money velocity. First, I look at U.S. stock and bond market and show that money multipliers robustly predict stock and bond excess returns over the period January 1959 - December 2015, and are priced in cross-section of stocks. These multipliers remain statistically significant after controlling for outside money growth and other well- understood predictors of stock and bond returns. Then I extend my analysis to currencies. I investigate short-run and long-run relationships between bilateral exchange rates and broad money multipliers of ten countries. I motivate my analysis with the quantity theory of money and find a strong long-run relationship between the exchange rate, relative money velocities, relative money supplies of the two countries and their relative output. I argue that the money multiplier can be seen as an alternative measure for money velocity, as it accounts for propensity to spend money not only on real sector goods and services but on financial assets too.

Banke, as mobiliseerders van spaargeld, speel 'n belangrike rol in die kanalisering van beleggings, maar ook in die verbetering van die lewenstandaard van die bevolking of gemeenskappe waarbinne hulle funksioneer. Die omskakeling van besparings na beleggings stimuleer die beleggingsvermenigvuldiger, wat weer toon dat 'n toename in investeringsbesteding die totale ekonomie ondersteun. 'n Analise van die leningsbedrywighede van banke wys dat hierdie instellings beide likiditeits- en solvensieprobleme in die gesig staar. Om hierdie risiko's te vermy, is dit belangrik dat banke die korrekte rentekoers hef wat die risiko verbonde aan die lening en die koste van kapitaal om die lening te befonds, weerspieël. Hierdie artikel ontleed spesifiek die rol wat koöperatiewe banke en koöperatiewe finansiële instellings in die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie vervul, deur te fokus op Orania se OSK Koöperatiewe Bank Beperk (OSK), die grootste koöperatiewe bank in Suid-Afrika. Die navorsing bestudeer die ontstaan en ontwikkeling van die OSK se uitleenaktiwiteite om belegging aan te moedig in die omgewing wat deur die bank bedien word. Die gevolgtrekking is onder meer dat die instelling 'n beduidende positiewe invloed op Orania se ekonomiese ontwikkeling gehad het. Die aanbeveling uit hierdie navorsing is dat die OSK as voorbeeld vir ander koöperatiewe banke en koöperatiewe finansiële instellings kan dien, om soortgelyke praktyke in werking te stel en sodoende die direkte omgewing waarbinne hulle werksaam is, te ondersteun. In the mobilisation of savings, banks play an important role in channelling investments, but also in improving the standard of living of the population or communities served by these institutions. The channelling of savings to investment stimulates the investment multiplier, which shows the total impact on the economy as a result of increased investment. An analysis of the lending activities of banks shows that these institutions face both liquidity and solvency risks. To avoid these risks, it is important for banks to lend funds to borrowers at appropriate rates that correctly reflect the riskiness of lending activities. Against this background, this article draws specific attention to the role that co-operative banks and co-operative financial institutions play in the South African economy, by focusing on Orania's OSC Co-operative Bank Limited (OSC), the largest co-operative bank in South Africa. The paper considers the origin and expansion of the OSC's lending practices and its role in encouraging investment in the community served by the bank. The main research finding is that the OSC has had a significant positive influence on Orania's economic development. The recommendation from this research is that the OSC can serve as an example for other co-operative banks and co-operative financial institutions to implement similar practices in order to support the communities in which they operate.

The influence of the interest policy of the National Bank of Ukraine on the dynamics of lending to non-financial corporations during the period of using the monetary regime of fixed exchange rate and inflation targeting is considered. It has been proven, that the use of the symmetric corridor of the interest policy of the National Bank of Ukraine has a negative effect on the volume of lending to non-financial corporations, since high rates on deposit certificates of the National Bank of Ukraine create a risk-free and highly profitable instrument for the placement of bank assets, which discourages lending to the real sector of the economy. The absence of a connection between the interest rate policy and the dynamics of the consumer price index and the money supply during the period of inflation targeting is substantiated, which made it possible to prove the low level of effectiveness of the chosen monetary regime. The aim of the article is to study the problems of bank lending to non-financial corporations of Ukraine in the conditions of inflation targeting and to develop proposals for its stimulation, taking into account foreign experience. Methods. The methodological basis of the work is the dialectical method of cognition, the position of the theory of monetary policy and credit. The work uses methods of economic and mathematical statistics and methods of correlation analysis to analyze the features of lending to non-financial corporations and the impact of inflation targeting on the dynamics of bank lending; generalization methods for formulating research conclusions. Results. The monetary regime of inflation targeting is quite often recommended by the International Monetary Fund for implementation in countries with emerging markets as a basic set of central bank tools for regulating inflation and ensuring price stability. However, in conditions of import dependence of the national economies of countries with emerging markets, in addition to changes in the money supply and credit activity of banks, the dynamics of export-import operations and the volume of official reserve assets, which determine the level of the exchange rate, have a decisive influence on the dynamics of the consumer price index, and it, in turn, determines the level of prices for imported goods and services. Neglecting the non-monetary factors of supply inflation during the implementation of the interest policy leads to the limitation of bank lending to non-financial corporations, which in turn reduces the ability of enterprises to increase capital investments at the expense of bank loans, as well as to develop domestic production with high added value and to implement the policy of import substitution. Therefore, for this purpose, it is necessary to use the asymmetric corridor of the central bank's interest policy and stimulate targeted bank lending to non-financial corporations.

Using the longest spanning monthly data ever studied in the empirical literature, dating back to 1870, we investigate the relationship between the money supply and the stock market in the United Kingdom. In the context of bivariate and multivariate structural generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-in-Mean VAR models, we document that increased money growth volatility has significant negative effects on the stock market. Our results are broadly consistent with the empirical literature and provide conclusive evidence that increased uncertainty about the growth rate of money, has a negative and statistically significant effect on economic activity. Also, accounting for money growth uncertainty, we find that an unanticipated increase (decrease) in money growth leads to fall (rise) in the unemployment rate and the interest rate and to a rise (fall) in share prices.

To explore how speculative trading influences prices in financial markets, we conduct a laboratory market experiment with speculating investors (who do not collect dividends and trade only for capital gains) and dividend-collecting investors. Moreover, we operate markets at two different levels of money supply. We find that in phases with only speculating investors present (i) price deviations from fundamentals are larger; (ii) prices are more volatile; (iii) mispricing increases with the number of transfers until maturity; and (iv) speculative trading pushes prices upward (downward) when the supply of money is high (low). These results suggest that controlling the money supply can help to stabilize asset prices.

Inflasi merupakan kenaikan harga yang secara terus menerus pada periode tertentu, dan inflasi merupakan salah satu dampak dari krisis ekonomi berkepanjangan yang melanda negara. Inflasi adalah suatu keadaan dimana terjadi kenaikan harga secara tajam yang berlangsung terus menerus dalam jangka waktu tertentu. Tujuan dari penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh jumlah uang beredar dan nilai tukar terhadap inflasi. Data sekunder diperoleh peneliti dari hasil publikasi yang dilakukan oleh Badan Pusat statistik (BPS) dan Bank Indonesia (BI). Hasil dari penelitian menunjukan bahwa jumlah uang beredardan tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap tingkat inflasi, sedangkan nilai tukar berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi. Inflation is a continuous increase in prices over a certain period, and inflation is one of the impacts of the prolonged economic crisis that hit the country. Inflation is a condition where there is a sharp increase in prices that lasts continuously for a certain period of time. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of the money supply and exchange rates on inflation. Secondary data obtained by researchers from the results of publications conducted by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and Bank Indonesia (BI). The results of the study show that the money supply have no significant effect on the inflation rate, while the exchange rate has a significant effect on inflation.

In Nigeria, the average monthly quantity of currency in circulation (CIC) has increased by 269 billion nairas, reaching 2.13 trillion as of 2019 and 2.41 trillion as of 2020. The current value of currency in circulation is expected to be 2.88 trillion naira. The economy of Nigeria is impacted by the seasonal fluctuations in its currency, and it is unavoidable that the economy would need to be adjusted. The purpose of this study was to adjust the seasonal effect of eight days to Easter and Muslim holidays on CIC, model and predict the CIC in Nigeria using the United State Census Bureau's X-12 ARIMA Seasonal adjustment software. The data utilized in the study was the monthly amount of money in circulation that was taken from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Bulletin between January 2012 and March 2022. Natural logarithm was used to standardize the data, and series seasonality was removed using seasonal differencing. Based on these data, it is clear that X-12-ARIMA (2 1 1)(0 1 1) is the most accurate forecasting approach for Nigeria's CIC. The money in circulation in Nigeria from April 2022 through December 2022 will rise at a positive rate of 2.8% growth rate each month, with a predicted monthly mean CIC of 3.40 trillion by the end of the year 2022, according to this method's predictions. This is the first study on modeling and forecast of CIC in Nigeria that have utilize the United State Census Bureau X-12-ARIMA software, the findings can be extrapolated to the coming year, Nigerians may want to get ready for an increase in the amount of money in circulation during this time. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

RESUMO Keynes assumiu a inelasticidade da oferta (ou inelasticidade da produção) com relação à demanda como um atributo necessário do dinheiro. Mas a teoria pós-keynesiana da moeda sugere que a função de oferta de moeda deve ser vista como horizontal, a um nível de taxas de juros estabelecido pelo banco central na definição do preço de oferta das reservas. As taxas de juros, e não a oferta de moeda, são a verdadeira variável de controle exógena do banco central. A oferta monetária é endógena, orientada para o crédito e determinada pela demanda. Este artigo examina porque a teoria posterior supera a teoria do dinheiro de Keynes. ABSTRACT Keynes assumed inelasticity of supply (or inelasticity of production) with respect to demand as a necessary attribute of money. But the post-Keynesian theory of money suggests that the money supply function should be viewed as horizontal, at a level of interest rates established by the central bank in setting the supply price of reserves. Interest rates rather than the money supply are the central bank’s true exogenous control variable. The money supply is endogenous, credit-driven and demand-determined. This paper examines why the later theory surpass Keynes’s theory of money.

Four major inflation surprises mark the modern economic era: diminished response of inflation to stimulus since the 1990’s, increasing financial bubble cycles, resilience of inflation during the Great Financial Crisis, and, of course, the pandemic inflation. To explain these surprises, this paper presents a new framework for analysing inflation as driven by three major components: a Natural Rate of Inflation reflecting an economy’s dynamism, monetary inflation driven by the relative unit value of a currency as determined by monetary aggregates, and cyclical inflation governed by fiscal policy and influenced by trade balances and demand shifts. Monetary inflation becomes increasingly less responsive to stimulus (inelastic) at a geometric rate, explaining both the 1990’s decline and increased financial bubbles. Another consequence was incomes falling behind growth in money, credit, and asset prices. Natural Inflation sets a floor on the overall inflation rate, which was evident following the GFC. The inflationary effect of unprecedented U.S. pandemic deficits is most evident when viewed in conjunction with the monetary model and accounts for the timing and magnitude of the pandemic inflation. The analysis indicates significant differences in the effects of fiscal and monetary stimulus, a return to sub-2% inflation, and that central banks are neither responsible for nor able to offset the inflation surprises.

This research study aims to explore the inflationary effects of oil price rises in the case of Azerbaijan. The study covers 1997–2021 yearly data to estimate long- and short-term impacts while considering “oil price—money supply” interactions. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds testing (ARDLBT), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR) cointegration methods are applied simultaneously. The research findings are: (1) oil price is a significant long-term determinant of inflation in Azerbaijan, affecting overall prices directly and indirectly via the money supply; (2) the effect is statistically significant in the short-term and happens indirectly, moderated by the money supply; and (3) oil price moderates the impact of the money supply over inflation in the short-term. A major limitation of the current study is that it omits the possible moderation impact of oil prices over inflation in Azerbaijan through the resulting inflationary pressure due to oil price rises in trade-partner countries and the government’s fiscal policy. Research findings require the Central Bank to consider indirect effects of oil price changes, especially due to money supply changes, when targeting inflation and addressing policy sustainability in Azerbaijan.

An important indicator of monetary policy's ability to control inflation or maintain economic stability is the impact it has on commercial banks' lending rates and cash reserve ratio. This research uses a dynamic systemgeneralized method of moments (GMM) estimation strategy to analyse the effect of monetary policy on lending rate of commercial banks. The study also incorporated longitudinal data mostly collected from the international monetary fund (IMF), and world development indicators between the years 2002 and 2021. The research found that commercial banks’ lending rate are significantly correlated with monetary policy. Additional empirical analysis confirmed a positive relationship between monetary policy and the commercial banking industry's cash reserve ratio. As a means of spurring economic development across the continent, it has been proposed that African central banks use a strategy that combines inflation with measures designed to boost output., {"references":["Akanbi, T. A., & Ajagbe, F. A. (2012). Analysis of monetary policy on commercial banks in Nigeria. African Journal of Business Management, 6(51), 12038–12042. https://doi.org/10.5897/ajbm11.1843","Alhajj, S. S., Md. Taib, F., & Abdul Mohsin, A. M. (2022). Effects of increased money supply on the economic stability of southeast Asian Countries Post-Bretton Woods System. Journal of Business and Social Development, 10(1), 75–84. https://doi.org/10.46754/jbsd.2022.03.006","Aron, J., & Muellbauer, J. (2008). \"Monetary Policy and Inflation Modeling in a more Open Economy in South Africa","Bala, U. (2022). The Effect of Monetary Policy on the Performance of Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria Rabiu Maijama ' a Journal of Business Management and Economic Research The Effect of Monetary Policy on the Performance of Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria. January. https://doi.org/10.29226/TR1001.2022.292","Balcilar, M., Ozdemir, Z. A., Ozdemir, H., Aygun, G., & Wohar, M. E. (2022). Effectiveness of monetary policy under the high and low economic uncertainty states: evidence from the major Asian economies. Empirical Economics, 63(4), 1741–1769. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-021-02198-x","Banke, N. K., & Yitayaw, M. K. (2022). Deposit mobilization and its determinants: evidence from commercial banks in Ethiopia. Future Business Journal, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-022-00144-6","Bean, C., Larsen, J., & Nikolov, K. (2003). Financial frictions and the monetary transmission mechanism: Theory, evidence and policy implications. Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area: A Study by the Eurosystem Monetary Transmission Network, 113, 107–130. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511492372.008"]}

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between the interest rate and money supply with the exchange rate in South Africa in three periods:- before the global financial crisis (GFC) (Jan 2002 – Jan 2007), during the GFC (Jan 2008 – Dec 2009) and after the GFC (Jan 2010 – Jan 2016). No clear direction on the relationship between the monetary policy and the exchange rate has been ascertained in developing and developed economies. The Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is utilized to find the objective of this study. Not much research has taken place involving the relationship of the interest rates, money supply with the exchange rate in the context of South Africa. To my knowledge this is the first study that incorporates the ARDL model to try and ascertain the type of relationship these variables have in South Africa. Therefore, new insights are yielded in the academic arena from this research's results. The results show that there is no significant relationship between the money supply and the exchange rate both in the short and long run in all three economic contexts. A significant effect is found from the interest rate on the exchange rate in the short run during and after the GFC. However, no relationship is found before the GFC between the interest rate and exchange rate. In addition, no relationship is found in the long run between the variables in all three economic contexts. The results suggest that the South African Reserve Bank SARB had a huge influence on the exchange rate during and after the GFC through changing the repo rate.

Це дослідження має на меті вивчити взаємозв’язок між пропозицією грошей і обмінним курсом в Алжирі між 1990 і 2020 роками. Ми аналізуємо економічні умови, які характеризували цей період, включаючи перехід від спрямованої економіки до ринкової економіки, а також участь Алжиру в програми Міжнародного валютного фонду та Світового банку. Щоб зрозуміти вплив обмінного курсу на пропозицію грошей у короткостроковій та довгостроковій перспективі, ми використовуємо метод коінтеграції Енгеля-Ґрейнджера. Ми використовуємо модель (Авторегресійна розподілена затримка/ARDL) для вимірювання зв’язку між двома змінними. Наші результати показують, що існує статистично значущий позитивний вплив пропозиції грошей на обмінний курс на рівні значущості 1% (P=0,001 < 0,01). Граничні тести для коінтеграції через F-статистику також вказують на коінтеграцію між обмінним курсом і пропозицією грошей, що узгоджується з економічною теорією. Протягом пореформеного періоду (2000-2014 рр.) ми спостерігаємо, що чисті іноземні активи відігравали незначну роль у покритті грошової маси порівняно з державними та економічними кредитами, які постійно збільшувалися, особливо з 2009 року. Важливо зазначити, що наше дослідження спирається на вичерпні та надійні дані з офіційних джерел, які збирають економічні дані в Алжирі. Крім того, економічні припущення можуть вплинути на наші результати та можуть бути застосовані не в усіх випадках. Тим не менш, наше дослідження доповнює існуючу літературу про взаємозв’язок між пропозицією грошей і обмінним курсом і проливає світло на конкретний випадок Алжиру. This study aims to examine the relationship between the money supply and the exchange rate in Algeria between 1990 and 2020. We analyze the economic conditions that characterized this period, including the shift from a directed economy to a market economy, as well as Algeria’s participation in the International Monetary Fund and World Bank programs. To understand the impact of the exchange rate on the money supply in the short and long term, we utilize the Engel-Granger co-integration method. We employ (Auto Regressive Distributed Lag/ARDL) model to measure the relationship between the two variables. Our findings indicate that there is a statistically significant positive effect of the money supply on the exchange rate at a 1% significance level (P=0.001 < 0.01). The limits tests for co-integration through F-statistic also indicate co-integration between the exchange rate and money supply, aligning with economic theory. During the post-reform period (2000-2014), we observe that net foreign assets played a marginal role in covering the monetary mass compared to state and economy loans, which continuously increased, particularly since 2009. It is important to note that our study relies on comprehensive and reliable data from official sources that collect economic data in Algeria. Additionally, economic assumptions may impact our results and may not be applicable in all cases. Nonetheless, our study contributes to the existing literature on the relationship between the money supply and the exchange rate and sheds light on the specific case of Algeria.

This study focused on Algeria and it looked at how education quality affected the knowledge economy. The theoretical anchor was the endogenous or new growth hypothesis. Secondary sources were used to get panel-structured data that spanned 48 Algerian provinces in 22 years (1999–2020). The equations were estimated using the fixed-random effect model and Hausman test, Also the Kao (Engle Ganger-based) cointegration test proved that the series did indeed have a long-run connection. The findings indicated that the knowledge economy was boosted by a rise in students’ Baccalaureate and Intermediate test success rates. This is due to the fact that a rise in exam success rates indicates that individuals at various educational levels are now receiving education of a higher caliber, and the economy depends on this caliber of education. The rise in students and professors is a sign that there are more knowledgeable people and specialized educators accessible to fuel the knowledge economy. As more educated citizens pass their exams and graduate from college, they are hired from the labor market into industries as significant production factors whose skills, values, and knowledge acquired through specialized training are expected to promote machine handling and coordination of other human and nonhuman production factors to fuel the knowledge economy. Teachers should be provided with ongoing professional development opportunities to help them provide instruction at all educational levels, according to a recommendation. This would improve their ability to educate and inspire students and help them do better on their intermediate and baccalaureate exams

The paper adds money supply and inflation expectations shocks to a well-known three-variable structural model that identifies oil price shocks through fundamentals affecting the oil market. Impulse responses show the significance of our two additional monetary shocks in impacting real oil prices. By subtracting from the money supply the temporary Federal Reserve swaps that were used to increase liquidity during the 2008 and 2020 bank crises, shocks upwards in both the adjusted M1 money supply and to inflation expectations significantly increase real oil prices; with the unadjusted M1 aggregate there is no signiÖcant effect of money supply shocks on real oil prices. Decomposition of historical oil price shocks shows a significant role played by inflation expectations and the money supply shocks during major oil shock episodes. These shocks partially replace roles previously attributed to the precautionary oil demand shock and the aggregate demand shock during the three major oil shock periods of the 1970s-1980s, post-2008 and during the 2020-2021 pandemic. The results show that both real oil price shocks and expected inflation shocks cause real GDP to fall.

Purpose: This study aims to examine the symmetric and asymmetric impact of external debt on inflation in Sudan from 1970 to 2020 within a multivariate framework by including money supply and the nominal effective exchange rate as additional inflation determinants. Design/methodology/approach: We utilize an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the symmetric impact of external debt on inflation, while the asymmetric impact is examined using a nonlinear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The existence of a long-run relationship between inflation and external debt is tested using the bounds-testing approach to cointegration, and a vector error-correction model is estimated to determine the short parameters of equilibrium dynamics. Findings: The linear ARDL model results show that external debt has no statistically significant impact on inflation in the long run. On the contrary, the results of the NARDL model show that positive and negative external debt shocks statistically impact inflation in the long run. The estimated long-run elasticity coefficients of both the linear and nonlinear ARDL models reveal that the domestic money supply has a statistically significant positive impact on inflation. In contrast, the nominal effective exchange rate has a statistically significant negative impact on inflation. Practical implications: The reliance on symmetric analysis may not be sufficient to uncover the existence of a linkage between external debt and inflation. Proper external debt management is crucial to control inflation rates in Sudan. Originality/Value: To date, no empirical study has assessed the external debt-inflation nexus and its potential asymmetry in Sudan, and the current study aims to fill this gap in the literature.

Part of the present inflation is caused by the breakdown of globalization, in particular supply chains, part is caused by the Corona Pandemic, in particular lockdowns, part is caused by the Ukrainian War, part is caused by European sanctions, and part - and not the smallest one - is caused by the European Central Bank's printing money by hook or by crook in the past and in the presence. This paper attributes inflation decisively to the overwhelming money creation by the European Central Bank.

Defence date: 17 May 2023 Examining Board: Prof. Russell Cooper, (Eropean University Institute, supervisor); Prof. Árpád Ábrahám, (University of Bristol, co-supervisor); Dr. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, (Bank of England); Prof. Immo Schott, (Université de Montréal) This thesis is composed of three essays, and studies how monetary policy transmission is shaped by firm heterogeneity with particular focus on investment, borrowing, and pricing decisions. In the first chapter, Debt Contracts, Investment and Monetary Policy, I study the role of debt contracts on the transmission of monetary policy to firm-level investment and borrowing. Empirically, using information from a detailed loan-level data matched with balance sheet data and stock return data, I document that in response to a contractionary monetary shock, asset-based borrowers –firms with more pledgeable assets, and higher beta– experience sharper contraction in borrowing and investment than cash flow-based borrowers –firms with higher profitability and alpha. To explore the possible channels and provide microfoundation for the coexistence of these debt contracts, I setup a heterogeneous firm New Keynesian model with limited enforceability. The quantitative model suggests that the traditional collateral channel explains this heterogeneous sensitivity as the cash flow based borrowers are less susceptible to collateral damage from changes in asset prices. Results indicate debt contract type affects the severity of financial frictions and also shapes the monetary policy transmission. The second chapter, TFPR: Dispersion and Cyclicality, coauthored with Russell Cooper, studies the determinants of TFPR, a revenue based measure of total factor productivity. Recent business cycle models are built upon the assumption of countercyclical dispersion in TFPQ, a quantity based measure of total factor productivity, based on evidence of countercyclical dispersion in TFPR. But, these can be very different measures of productivity. The distribution of TFPR is endogenous, dependent upon exogenous shocks and the endogenous determination of prices. An overlapping generations model with monopolistic competition and state dependent pricing is constructed to study the factors that shape the TFPR distribution. The empirical focus is on three key data patterns: (i) countercyclical dispersion of TFPR, (ii) countercyclical dispersion of price changes and (iii) countercyclical frequency of price adjustment. The analysis uncovers two interesting scenarios in which these moments are matched. One arises in the presence of shocks to the dispersion of TFPQ along with a negatively correlated change in the mean of TFPQ. The second arises if the monetary authority responds to shocks to the dispersion of TFPQ by “leaning against the wind". Due to state contingent pricing, the model is nonlinear. Simple correlations mask these nonlinearities of the underlying economy. The real effects of monetary innovations are state dependent, with monetary policy less effective in recessions. In the third chapter, Sectoral Volatility and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy, written jointly with Thomas Walsh, we investigate how the dispersion of firm-level shocks affect the investment channel of monetary policy. Using firm-level panel data, we construct several measures of dispersion of productivity shocks, time-pooled and timevarying, and interact high-frequency identified monetary policy shocks with these measures of idiosyncratic shock volatility. We document a novel fact: monetary policy has dampened real effects via the investment channel when firm-level TFP shock volatility is high. Our estimates for dampening effects of volatility are statistically and economically significant - moving from the tenth to the ninetieth percentile of the volatility distribution approximately halves point estimates of impulse response functions to contractionary monetary policy shocks. Given that dispersion rises in recessions, these findings offer further evidence as to why monetary policy is weaker in recessions, and emphasize the importance of firm heterogeneity in monetary policy transmission. 1. Debt Contracts, Investment, and Monetary Policy -- 2. TFPR: Dispersion and Cyclicality -- 3. Sectoral Volatility and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy -- A. Appendix to Chapter 1 -- B. Appendix to Chapter 2 -- C. Appendix to Chapter 3

This paper investigates the dynamic effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on Chinese aggregate investment and three of its components. Our findings are as follows: First, we find that government spending shocks have no significant impact on aggregate investment or its components. Second, we compare the effectiveness of two kinds of monetary policy and show that shocks to the benchmark lending rate have a non-significant effect on aggregate investment, while shocks to the money supply have a positive and significant effect on aggregate investment only during periods of expansion. Third, a positive interest rate shock has a significant negative effect on state-owned investment, while it has an insignificant impact on private investment and foreign investment. Overall, our results show that both government spending policy and monetary policy have rather limited impacts on boosting domestic investment in China. Thus, it is not necessary for the Chinese government to implement a large-scale economic stimulus package to boost domestic investment and output growth.

Drawing on a comprehensive panel data of 137 low income and developing countries, this study queries the macro-economic drivers of Public Private Partnership (PPP) in these countries. PPP is mainly used as a method to address infrastructure needs of nation states which cannot allocate their financial resources towards infrastructure investments and/or cannot secure finance through other instruments. Previous studies in the field remain partial as they included a limited number of macro-economic factors and a smaller number of countries. Our findings suggest that general government balance, population size, money supply and the share of investments in GDP are significant determinants of PPP activity.

The article has been dedicated to one of the actual problems in Georgia – inflation. There is given research of the main reasons of enormously increasing prices on local Products as well as on imported products and services. Among the existing reasons the main reasons are of local originality. For example: overloaded monetary circulation caused by the National Bank’s incorrect monetary and credit politics, monopoly-oligopoly in bank sphere, falling of local production rate caused by pandemic, etc. Some of the reasons are imported, such as increased prices on fuel and on imported products from partner countries, etc. In the article it has been introduced those main branches of national economy, where prices have been tremendously increased. Besides, it should be mentioned imported fuel and food products, transport expenses, medical service, etc. The main aim of the research is to find the ways and methods to overcome inflation crisis. To our knowledge, in order to overcome this problem is development of monetary and credit according to monetarists’ theory which is approved in many countries such as Poland, Estonia, etc. in order to regulate inflation the state should carry out the following measures: growth of local production rate, growth of local products, discharging of monetary circulation from extra money and strict control over these processes, creating competitive environment in bank sector, etc. The mechanism of state intervention in the economy consists of a whole chain of causes and effects. It is headed by the money supply, hence the increase in the money supply, and at the bottom - the state of the economic situation. The monetarist concept of the transmission mechanism is based on the principle that the economic object must act in such a way as to bring as much profit as possible. To do this, it must try to perfect the structure of the asset portfolio and make it one in which it will generate more revenue. The concept of an asset portfolio includes not only cash and securities, but also fixed assets presented in various forms. Portfolios are balanced when the profitability of the marginal units of each type of asset is equal / balanced. The result is that there is no need to redistribute interchangeable assets. This balance is broken by the supply of extra money. The source of its growth may be open market operations, ie the purchase of government bonds by the central bank, for example. After selling the securities, the farms own much more money than they had before.

Using the regression model, a method that accommodates variables related to each other is called the simultaneous equation method. The study aims to determine the factors affecting inflation and rupiah exchange rate and model simultaneous equations towards the factors affecting inflation and rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia using Two-Stage Least Square. Data used in this study are secondary data obtained from the website of Statistics of Indonesia. Findings on the simultaneous equation model with two-stage least squares reveal that variables that significantly affect inflation are the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate and money supply. At the same time, variables that significantly affect the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate are inflation and money supply. The predictive value using the inflation and rupiah exchange rate equation indicates that the obtained MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value does not exceed 50%. In conclusion, the prediction result using the inflation and Indonesia rupiah exchange rate equation is accurate.

Research background: There is no consensus among scholars on the interaction effect between money supply, price, and wages despite various studies conducted to that effect. Purpose: This study investigates whether the neutrality of money assumption holds in the long run in Nigeria, using annual data from 1970 to 2018. Research methodology: The study utilized the Johansen cointegration test and the Vector Error Correction (VECM) approach for estimation. Results: The results from the Phillips curve model contradict the classical school of economics assumption that money is neutral in the long run. This implies that in the Nigerian economy, money is not neutral in the long run. The long run Fishers’ effect model shows that the coefficient of LOG (CPI) exhibits a negative sign and is statistically significant at a 5% significant level, thus contradicting the hypothesis which states that a one percent increase in consumer prices will lead to an increase in the rate of interest by one percent. The coefficient of nominal money supply indicates a negative sign and insignificant statistically on the interest rate. The Short-run estimated results showed that the coefficient of the error correction term ECM (–1) indicates a negative sign and is significant statistically in the Fishers’ effect model. The result shows the actual and equilibrium values are corrected with adjustment speeds equal to 31% yearly. Novelty: The study recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria should ensure an effective implementation of monetary targeting measures in fine-tuning the economy and curbing inflationary pressures.

The purpose of the study was to assess the determinants of the balance of payment in Tanzania. The nature of this study was quantitative where secondary time series data covering a period of thirty-one years between 1990 and 2020 were collected. The study performed descriptive statistics and diagnostic tests such as normality test, unit root test for stationarity, Pearson’s Correlation matrix to check if there is a multicollinearity problem in the data. The diagnostic tests revealed that the data bring unbiased results, therefore the ordinary least square regression was performed and we found that foreign direct investment and inflation rate have a negative and significant influence on the balance of payment, whereas exchange rate has a positive and insignificant influence on the balance of payment, and the interest rate has an insignificant negative influence on the balance of payment. Finally, we recommend that a country have to introduce relative prices of imports in order to improve the inflows of FDI in order to have a favourable balance of payment in a country like Tanzania. Also, Tanzania's central bank must be cautious in its monetary policy and take some beneficial steps to regulate the money supply. To attract the new internal investor, it must keep an eye on interest rates and charge a low-interest rate.

Recently, China has declared its national objective of becoming carbon neutral by 2060. Hence, mitigating carbon dioxide emissions has become an important agenda of the Chinese government. Against this backdrop, this paper aims to evaluate the effectiveness of pursuing expansionary fiscal and monetary policies on China’s carbon dioxide emission figures by using annual frequency data from 1980 to 2018. Accordingly, this study considers the levels of government expenditure and broad money supply as fiscal and monetary policy instruments, respectively. Besides accounting for structural break concerns in the data, the findings from the empirical analysis reveal that there are long-run associations between carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, and fiscal and monetary expansion in China. Moreover, the results also show that in both the short- and long-run expansionary fiscal policy trigger higher carbon dioxide emissions while expansionary monetary policy inhibits the carbon dioxide emission figures of China. Furthermore, the results invalidate the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis since the relationship between China's economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions is evidenced to portray an N-shape. In line with these findings, it is recommended that China achieve environmentally sustainable economic growth by aligning the national fiscal and monetary policies with the 2060 carbon-neutrality objective.

PurposeThe aim of this study is to shed light on the relative importance of money supply and exchange rates variations on office markets prices dynamics.Design/methodology/approachUsing a parsimonious real estate asset pricing model, the authors focus on the two biggest European office markets; namely the United Kingdom and Germany. The authors use a panel approach based on a robust econometric methodology (GMM with correction errors-in-variables). The authors take into account the variations of exchange rates and money supplies for the most important currencies.FindingsThe results highlight the impact of money supplies and exchange rates on office prices after the Global Financial Crisis. The authors report that the monetary policies in the UK and in Germany (Euro zone) have had significant influences in the real estate sector after the Global Financial Crisis. However, the authors identified significant differences between British and German office markets for the 2009–2019 period regarding the impact of money supply and exchange rates variations on the office prices dynamics.Practical implicationsThe results highlight the impact of money supplies and exchange rates on office prices after the Global Financial Crisis. The detailed and exclusive database (composed of the main office markets in the United Kingdom and in Germany) allows the authors to identify significant differences and opportunities for investors.Originality/valueThe authors use a parsimonious model and apply a panel approach based on a robust econometric methodology to analyse the impact of exchange rates and money supply variations on the office prices dynamics. The detailed and exclusive database (composed of the main office markets in the United Kingdom and in Germany) allows the authors to identify significant differences for investors.

PurposeThe study aims to empirically examine the relationship between monetary policy and economic growth, as well as to explore the long-run and the short-run effect of monetary policy on the economic growth of a developing country (Bangladesh) and a developed country (the United Kingdom).Design/methodology/approachDepending on data availability, the study employed secondary data covering the period of 1980–2019. The augmented Dickey–Fuller test and the Phillips–Perron test were used for the stationarity test. Further, the F-bounds test was run to justify the long-run relationship between monetary policy and economic growth. Thereafter, long-run coefficients were revealed from the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and short-run coefficients from the error correction model. Furthermore, the vector error correction model (VECM) Granger causality approach was employed to demonstrate the causality of studied variables. Lastly, different diagnostics tests ensured the robustness of the models.FindingsF-bounds test outcomes suggest that monetary policy has a long-run relationship with economic growth in both countries. Long-run coefficients revealed that money supply has a positive long-run impact on economic growth in both countries. Unlike the UK, the exchange rate exhibits an adverse effect on the economic growth of Bangladesh. The bank rate seems to promote economic growth for the UK. Findings also depict that increase in lending interest rates hurts the economic growth for both countries. Besides, the short-run coefficients portray random effects at different lags in both cases. Lastly, causality among studied variables is revealed using the VECM Granger causality approach.Originality/valueThe novelty of this study lies in consideration of both developing and developed countries in the same study.

This study investigates the impact of monetary policy on renewable energy generation in Iran. It examines three types of renewable energy generation: total renewable energy generation; solid biomass and biogas energy generation; and the hydropower, solar, and wind group energy generation. The study uses the Kalman filter and vector autoregression (VAR) models to examine annual data from 1984 to 2016. The Kalman filter model showed that the money supply parameter moved with a steady trend, except for a sharp point during the Iran-Iraq War. A sharp point can be found for real interest rate parameter as well, although the time of global crisis and sanctions also affects this coefficient. The VAR model results indicate that only a shock to money supply can affect all the three renewable energy generation types.

A healthy banking system is determined by the amount of money supply which can be monitored through various monetary policy instruments. A lot of study has shown studies from other countries on various monetary policies used with scanty literature as it relates to Nigeria, and this research is aimed at looking at the Nigerian scenario. Method used for this study is empirical on the effect of monetary policy on banking in Nigeria. Time series data from 2004-2019 was used with an autoregressive distributed lag approach and error correction mechanism. The findings from this study are; there is an evidence of significant relationship between the dependent and the explanatory variables with a long-run relationship between credit reserve ratio and money supply on bank loans and advances while other variables such as monetary policy rate (MPR) and liquidity ratio (LQR) are not significant on bank loans and advances in Nigeria. The error correction mechanism reveals the existence of cointegration, stating that there is a long-run relationship among the dependent and the explanatory variables. Structural changes in monetary policy is significant on bank loans hence suggesting a significant effect on bank loans and advances. This research serves as a great relevance to policy makers which implies monetary authorities should review and formulate an efficient policy such as fiscal policy to help boost bank industries in Nigeria

In search of a stable demand for money, almost all previous studies include two uncertainty measures captured by the volatility of the money supply and output. While in some countries, this yielded a stable demand for money, in some others, it did not. The latter was the case for Singapore. In this paper, we use a relatively more new and comprehensive measure of uncertainty known as policy uncertainty that is a news-based measure, and revisit the demand for money in Singapore. Our approach not only yields a stable demand for money in Singapore, but also reveals that the long-run effects of policy uncertainty on the demand for money are asymmetric. While increased uncertainty induces the public in Singapore to hold more money, decreased uncertainty does not affect.

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of interest rate and money supply on the growth of mortgage financing among Commercial banks in Kenya. Materials and methods: The study adopted a descriptive research design. The population contained 35 loan lending commercial banks over a period between 1985 and 2019. Secondary data was used from desired financial statements available to the public of the singular commercial banks and other posted reports of financial institutions and establishments in conformity with the study. Time-series data were analyzed using STATA version 13 software, regression analysis and model specification tests. The hypothesis was tested using the multiple regression approach a significance level of 0.05 was used. Results: The study found that interest rate (coef= -0.0822, p= 0.007) and money supply (coef= 0.548, p= 0.00) have significant effects on the growth of mortgage financing among Kenyan commercial banks. Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy: Kenya's central bank should put in place mechanisms to guarantee that interest rates and money supply do not have adverse impacts on bank mortgage financing. The government should guarantee currency stability since currency fluctuations may have a negative impact on commercial bank mortgage borrowing. The classical theory is therefore relevant in our research since interest rates impact mortgages when capital demand increases. The quantity theory of money demand also holds that individuals want cash based on the transactions they need.

We explore the celebrated Friedman rule for optimal monetary policy in the context of a laboratory economy based on the Lagos-Wright model. The rule that Friedman proposed can be shown to be optimal in a wide variety of different monetary models, including the Lagos-Wright model. However, we are not aware of any prior empirical evidence evaluating the welfare consequences of the Friedman rule. We explore two implementations of the Friedman rule in the laboratory. The first is based on a deflationary monetary policy where the money supply contracts to offset time discounting. The second implementation pays interest on money removing the private marginal cost from holding money. We explore the welfare consequences of these two theoretically equivalent implementations of the Friedman Rule and compare results with two other policy regimes, a constant money supply regime and another regime advocated by Friedman, where the supply of money grows at a constant k-percent rate. We find that, counter to theory, the Friedman rule is not welfare improving, performing no better than a constant money regime. By one welfare measure, we find that the k-percent money growth rate regime performs best.

The scientific article is devoted to the study of the purpose of monetary policy of the central banks of the EU member states. The legislation of the European Union, the member states of the European Union (Germany, France, Poland, the Czech Republic, Spain), as well as the United Kingdom, which left the EU, modern approaches in the science of constitutional and administrative law to determine the monetary policy of central banks EU members. The concept of the purpose of the monetary policy of the Central Banks of the EU member states, the activities and instruments of monetary policy, the functions of the central bank of the EU member state are distinguished. Emphasis is placed on the following regulatory functions of central banks that exist in legal doctrine: 1) management of aggregate money turnover; 2) regulation of the monetary sphere; 3) regulation of supply and demand for credit. The focus is on the fact that the central banks of the EU member states support purchasing power, as well as on the well-known fact: inflation - the slope of financial policy is recognized in economic theory as the most effective. Ensuring the stability of the currency (conducting open market operations or establishing exchange rate policies or reserve requirements, etc.) is a function of the central bank of the state, not the purpose of its activities. The stability of the national unit is also a function of the central bank of the state. It is established that the main purpose of the monetary policy of the central banks of the EU member states is to ensure price stability. In addition, it is argued that this is the inflationary - inclination of financial policy is the most effective. Accounting policy, interest rate policy, regulation of reserve requirements, money supply, open market operations and credit operations, interest rates, reserve requirements of banks are the activities and instruments of monetary policy of central banks. members of the EU, not the purpose of monetary policy.

The crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic has prompted governments and central banks to take unorthodox measures aimed at protecting the standard of living of people and sustaining the production and service activities of companies. The policy of aggressively rising the supply of money has entailed a significant increase in the budget deficit and public debt. It is important to consider the extent of its impact on the escalation of inflation processes and to formulate suggestions regarding the economic policy. Inflation is already higher than the official indicators show it, because it is partly suppressed. The increase in the general price level does not fully reflect the actual inflation rate. We are dealing with shortageflation — the simultaneous occurrence of price inflation and repressed inflation accompanied by shortages. It is methodologically interesting to compare this current phenomenon, 3.0, with the suppression of inflation in the war economy, 1.0, and in the economies of state socialism, 2.0. Such comparisons highlight not only the similarities of these processes but also the differences resulting from the specificity of responses of households and businesses. This article discusses five channels of unloading excessive savings, indicating the most beneficial ones from the point of view of sustainable economic development in the post-pandemic future. It is particularly important to prompt the conversion of compulsory savings into voluntary ones and at the same time to stimulate the transformation of inflationary monetary reserves into the effective demand expanding the use of existing production capacities and investments in creating new capacities.

The present study investigates the effect of changes in money supply on both Indian stock market sensitive index and stock market overall capitalization by employing unit root test with break point, Johansen’s cointegration test, vector error correction (VEC) model, VEC Granger causality test, variance decomposition, and impulse response function. The result of the unit root test reveals that all the variables are nonstationary in levels but become stationary at the first-order difference. The unit root test further reveals that there are structural breaks in the mid-1990s or 2000s. The Johansen’s cointegration test reveals that the Indian stock market index and stock market capitalization are individually cointegrated with money supply. Further, the long-run co-movement between the Indian stock market and money supply and stock market capitalization and money supply is found to be positive. The results of the VEC model shows that the error correction term in the lnSENSEX–lnMS model is negative and statistically significant, while the error correction term in the lnMARCAP–lnMS model is found to be insignificant. The VEC Granger causality test shows that there is no short-run causal relationship between the variables. The variance decomposition indicates that both Indian stock market index and stock market capitalization are strongly exogenous. The impulse response function suggests that money supply has an immediate positive effect on both Indian stock market index and stock market capitalization. The investors and fund managers should take investment decisions keeping in view the positive co-movement of Indian stock market performance and broad money supply. The study recommends that the government should avoid aggressive tightening of money supply.

PurposeThis paper analyzes variations in the effects of monetary and fiscal shocks on responses of macroeconomic variables, determinacy region, and welfare costs due to changes in trend inflation.Design/methodology/approachThe authors develop the New-Keynesian model, in which the central banks can employ either nominal interest rate (IR rule) or money supply (MS rule) to conduct monetary policies. They also use their capital and recurrent spending budgets to conduct fiscal policies. By using the simulated method of moment (SMM) for parameter estimation, the authors characterize Vietnam's economy during 1996Q1–2015Q1.FindingsThe results report that consequences of monetary policy and fiscal policy shocks become more serious if there is a rise in trend inflation. Furthermore, the money supply might not be an effective instrument, and using the government budget for recurrent spending produces severe consequences in the high-trend inflation economy.Practical implicationsThis paper's findings are critical for economists and monetary and fiscal authorities in effectively designing both the monetary and fiscal policies in confronting the shift in the inflation targets.Originality/valueThis is the first paper that examines the effects of trend inflation on the monetary and fiscal policy implementation in the case of Vietnam.

Internal (firm-specific) and external (macroeconomic) determinants of stock price fluctuations are vital for investors seeking to invest their money in a firm’s stocks. Thus, the main aim of this study is to explore macroeconomic and firm-specific factors that influence stock price fluctuations for all conventional banks in Jordan in 2010–2019. Ordinary least squares multiple regression (panel data) is applied for data analysis. The results report that trading volume (TV), dividend yield (DY), and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have a positive effect on stock price volatility, while stock price volatility is statistically negatively affected by return on assets (ROA), dividend payout ratio (DPR), and price-earnings ratio (PE). On the other hand, money supply (MS) does not affect stock price volatility. Paying more dividends can reduce stock risk and, in turn, reduce stock price volatility. The findings can benefit current and potential investors, firm managers, brokers, dealers, portfolio managers, regulatory bodies, policy makers, and researchers.

We investigate the time-varying dynamics of the precious metal markets. We employ a mixed data sampling technique to identify the impact of macroeconomic and financial drivers from G7 and BRICS countries on the daily volatility and pairwise correlation of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. We find that the U.S. and Chinese economies especially influence the precious metal markets, but in opposite directions. Besides, the stock markets and trade balance of both G7 and BRICS countries as well as the consumer confidence of G7 countries are the key drivers for the volatility of precious metals. The most influential drivers for correlation are stock markets, money supply, and the inflation rate. Surprisingly, the economic policy uncertainty does not affect the dynamics as much as expected. Lastly, the global financial crisis 2008 affected the direction of most of the macroeconomic and financial drivers.

This study aims to analyze the influence of the money supply, public consumption, economic growth and interest rates on inflation in Indonesia, using the dynamic error correction model. Based on the results of research on the ECT it shows that the process of adjustment to imbalances in changes in the inflation rate in Indonesia is relatively slow, the money supply in the short and long term has no significant effect on the inflation rate in Indonesia, public consumption in the short and long term has no significant effect on the inflation rate in Indonesia, economic growth in the short and long term has a significant effect on the inflation rate in Indonesia and interest rates in the short and long term have a significant effect on the inflation rate.

ilustraciones, gráficas El siguiente trabajo consta de 3 momentos importantes. En primer lugar, se hace una revisión de literatura sobre el tema de la neutralidad del dinero tanto en lo teórico como en la evaluación empírica a nivel internacional, regional y en Colombia. En segundo lugar, se hace un marco teórico que junta distintas visiones teóricas, resaltando definiciones importantes, por ejemplo, que el dinero deja de ser neutral cuando se supone racionalidad limitada y asimetrías de información, rigideces e inercia nominales, y endogeneidad del dinero. En tercer lugar, se evalúa de forma empírica si se cumple o no la neutralidad del dinero en Colombia para el periodo entre 2005 a 2019 por medio de la metodología VECM determinando las posibles relaciones de largo plazo y sus implicaciones estadísticas. Adicionalmente, se hace inferencia sobre los coeficientes de ajuste de las variables para saber si las variables son débilmente exógenas. Por medio de las funciones de impulso respuesta ortogonalizados se detecta que en el largo plazo un shock transitorio de la oferta de dinero aumenta el PIB real no solo en el corto plazo, sino también en el largo plazo, y a su vez, se detecta una gran contribución de la oferta monetaria sobre la varianza del error de pronóstico del PIB real, por lo que se concluye que el dinero no es neutral. (Texto tomado de la fuente) The following paper consists of 3 major stages. In first place, a literature review on money neutrality is made not only in a theoretical way, but also in empirical results in the worldwide, regional and in national studies. Second, a theoretical frame that shows lot of theories and visions about the topic underlying that money is non-neutral when limited information and asymmetric information, nominal inertia, rigidities on prices and wages and inside money is supposed. Third, by using a VECM estimation method and finding possible long-term relations and their statistical consequences, is assessed whether the neutrality of money in Colombia is held, during the period between 2005 and 2019. Moreover, statistical inference has been made to evaluate if the variables are weakly exogenous or not. With orthogonalized impulse-response functions has been detected that eventually a transitory shock of the money supply increases real GDP not only in the short run, but also in the long run. Also, a great contribution of M1 is detected using the variance decomposition over the real GDP, concluding that money is non-neutral. Maestría Magíster en Ciencias Económicas VECM y Cointegración Política Monetaria

This study is an endeavor to examine joint determination of prices, money supply and output in Pakistan during 1975-2019 by using macro-economic model and annual time series data. Three Stage Least Square (3SLS) method is utilized to estimate simultaneous model of prices, money supply and output nexus. Our results strongly support significant positive association between prices and money supply thus supports monetarist view that growth in money supply causes inflation and rising behavior of prices is detrimental to real output. The accelerated inflation has obstructed real output and reduced output levels has further caused jump in price levels during the investigated period. The empirical results also supports significant bi-directional relationship between prices and money supply. Prudent monetary policy is need of hour to stabilize prices in order to minimize its adverse impacts on real output.

A Government Bond is a significant financial instrument for the state budget of Indonesia Government. It has become important and quite attractive among other financial instruments. Using BI 7-Day Repo Rate, Inflation, Money Supply, Indonesia Composite Index, and USD/IDR Exchange Rate as independent variables, this research has been done to determine Government Bond Yield. The research population is bond issued by Indonesia Government. The sampling is 10-years traded Government Bond fixed rate serries during 2016-2021 with 300 data collected which since 2020 Indonesia has been facing the Covid-19 pandemic that affected the global economy and financial markets. This research finds that Government Bond Yield positively affected by BI 7-Day Repo Rate, Inflation Rate, and USD/IDR Exchange Rate, while negatively affected by Money Supply, yet Indonesia Composite Index and Covid-19 pandemic has no effect on the Government Bond Yield.

This study examines the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the liquidity of the Indian stock market by using the Granger Causality, Vector Auto-Regressive Model, and Impulse Response Functions. ...

This study aimed to investigate the impact of monetary policy using Islamic or non-Islamic money supply on FDI in Jordan. Using time series analysis of selected variables during the period 1980 until 2018 using the ARDL model. The objective achieved the appropriate statistical tests such as data stability and co-integration tests have been used. The variables analyzed include the money supply (M2), the Islamic money supply (IMS), the export (EXP), Government Expenditure (GOV), inflation rate (INR), The gross domestic product (GDP) as independent variables. The dependant variable is the foreign direct investment (FDI). This study results in a long-term and short-term statistically significant correlation between the money supply (M2), the Islamic money supply (IMS) and FDI. The Islamic money supply (IMS) has a positive impact and the money supply (M2) has a negative impact on the FDI. The study recommended; the Jordanian government must implement a targeted Islamic monetary policy to attract foreign direct investment in the Jordanian economy. Provide an appropriate environment for investment and to remove the obstacles to investment in general, in order to attract the capital of Jordanians working abroad for domestic investment, as well as for foreign investments.

PurposeThe paper aims to shed light on the effects of inflation on gold price and exchange rate in Vietnam by using time-varying cointegration.Design/methodology/approachUsing cointegration techniques with fixed coefficient and time-varying coefficient, the study exams the impacts of inflation in models and compares the results through coefficient estimates.FindingsA significant inflation impacts are found with the time-varying cointegration but not with the fixed coefficient cointegration models. Moreover, monetary policy affects exchange rate not only directly via its instruments as money supply and interest rate but indirectly via inflation. Also, interest rate is one of the determinants of gold price.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to use time-varying cointegration to analyze the impact of inflation on the gold price and exchange rate in Vietnam. Gold price and exchange rate fluctuations are always the essential and striking issues, which have been emphasized by economists and policymakers. In macroeconometric researches, cointegration models are often used to analyze the long-term relations between variables. Attentionally, applied models show a limitation when estimating coefficients are fixed. This characteristic might not really match with the data properties and the variation of the economy. Currently, time-varying cointegration models are emerging method to solve the above issue.