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[抄録]２０１９年末、中国で新型コロナウイルス（COVID -１９）の最初の感染症例が報告された。それ以降、当初の震源地である中国から、急速に全世界へ感染が拡大していった。症例の増加に伴って、世界各国は感染拡大の抑制を目的とした水際対策や外出自粛要請等を実施した。その結果、経済活動が大きく抑制され、世界中で記録的な景気後退となっており、当然ながら日本ならびに関西も同様である。本稿では、COVID -１９ の感染拡大の状況、経済への影響、政府による緊急経済対策を整理した。そしてそれらが関西経済に及ぼす影響を試算した。２０２０年度の関西経済の実質 GRP 成長率は－５.２％となり、リーマン・ショック後の２００９年度（－４.２％）を超えて過去最悪となる。シミュレーションによると、COVID １９ の感染拡大がなければ、２０２０年度の関西の実質 GRP は約６.０兆円（対 GRP 比７.６％）拡大し、成長率は＋２.０％となっていた。また、緊急経済対策が行われていなければ、２０２０年度の関西の実質 GRP は約２.２兆円（対 GRP 比２.７％）小さくなっていた。[Abstract]At the end of ２０１９, the first case of the new coronavirus（COVID -１９）was reported in China.Then the disease spread rapidly from China to the rest of the world, resulting in the pandemic.Countries around the world have implemented measures to control the spread of the disease, including travel restrictions, increased quarantine, and requests to refrain from leaving home.As a result, economic activities have shrunk, and the world has experienced a sharp recession.The same has happened in Japan and the Kansai region. In this paper, we reviewed the spread of COVID -１９, its impact on the economy, and the emergency economic measures taken by the Japanese government. We estimated the impact of COVID- １９ and economic measures on the Kansai economy.According to the forecast, the real GRP growth rate of the Kansai economy in FY２０２０is －５.２％. This is the worst result to date, worse than the －４.２％ in fiscal ２００９ following the Lehman shock. Without the spread of COVID- １９, the real GRP of the Kansai region in FY２０２０would have expanded by about ６.０ trillion yen, with a growth rate of ＋２.０％. Without the government’s emergency economic stimulus measures, the real GRP of the Kansai region would have been about ２.１ trillion yen smaller in FY２０２０.

The paper outlines a structural macroeconometric model for the economy of Russia. The aim of the research is to analyze how the domestic economy functions, generate forecasts for important macroeconomic indicators and evaluate the responses of main endogenous variables to various shocks. The model is estimated based on quarterly data starting from 2001 to 2019. The majority of the equations are specified in error correction form due to the non-stationarity of variables. Stochastic simulation is used to solve the model for expost and ex-ante analysis. We compare forecasts of the model with forecasts generated by the VAR model. The results indicate that the present model outperforms the VAR model in terms of forecasting GDP growth, inflation rate and unemployment rate. We also evaluate the responses of main macroeconomic variables to VAT rate and world trade shocks via stochastic simulation. Finally, we generate ex-ante forecasts for the Russian economy under the baseline assumptions.

[抄録]県民経済計算で新たな計算体系として導入された 2008SNA の概要とその関西各府県経済への影響をみた。また筆者がこれまで開発してきた関西経済予測モデルを 2008SNA に準拠したデータに基づき改定した。明示的な形 で 2008SNA に対応した地域マクロ計量モデルは、独自のものとなる。標準予測の結果によると、関西の実質 GRP 成長率は2019年度＋0.6％、20年度＋0.5％となる。本モデルのように、県境を越えて広域に跨る経済を取り扱う地域計量モデルは、データの制約等の問題があるものの、政策決定や予測にその果たす役割は大きいと考える。[Abstract]In Japan, the 2008 version of the Systems of National Accounts（2008SNA）has being used in prefectures since 2016. This study examined the changes in 2008SNA and their impact on Kansai prefectures. The author has developed Kansai econometric forecasting models. This study revised the models based on data compliant with 2008SNA. To the best of the author’s knowledge, there is no regional macroeconomic model that explicitly supports 2008SNA in previous studies. Kansai’s real gross regional products（ GRP ）growth rate is forecast to be ＋0.6％ in FY2019 and ＋0.5％ in FY2020. A regional metrology model dealing with economies beyond prefectural borders in a greater area is thought to be useful for policy decisions and predictions.

The Annual Macroeconometric Model of the Japanese Economy which consists of about 70equations has been developed, through an approach to the decision of interaction between all variables in this model, securing the accountability of impact simulation. This paper tries to clarify that the compact model which consists of the 9 equations from this Macroeconometric Model: GDP? real interest rate? nominal interest rate? expected inflation? nextterm inflation? potential GDP? labor productivity? expected wage growth rate? and nextterm wage growth rate? also has the same role of the teaching tools as the dynamic ADAS model, by following the analysis procedure in the Mankiw's Macro Economics textbook.

The Annual Macroeconometric Model of the Japanese Economy which consists of about 70 equations has been developed, through an approach to the decision of interaction between all variables in this model, securing the accountability of impact simulation. This paper tries to clarify that the compact model which consists of the 9 equations from this Macroeconometric Model: GDP? real interest rate? nominal interest rate? expected inflation? nextterm inflation? potential GDP? labor productivity? expected wage growth rate? and nextterm wage growth rate? also has the same role of the teaching tools as the dynamic ADAS model, by following the analysis procedure in the Mankiw's Macro Economics textbook., 長崎大学経済学部研究年報, 33, pp.17-39; 2017

Given new programs and policies in the Philippines, there is a need to formulate a macroeconometric model (MEM) to gain more insights on how the economy and its sectors are affected. This paper discusses the estimation of an annual MEM that will be used for policy analysis and forecasting with respect to the opportunities and challenges brought about by new developments. The formulation of an annual MEM is useful in assisting major macroeconomic stakeholders such as NEDA and the BSP in their conduct of policy simulations, macroeconomic surveillance, and economic analysis. Given this backdrop, PIDS and BSP have collaborated to estimate an annual MEM, which has four blocks, namely, the real sector, fiscal sector, trade sector, and monetary sector. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model approach, these sectors are modeled separately although the linkages with each other are specified. These sectoral models are then put together and a test on the predictive accuracy of the forecast of the overall model is done. Some ways to further improve the annual MEM are provided.

This scoping paper aims to present a summary of the past and present macroeconometric models of the Philippine economy. This paper looks at the various approaches and methodology used in modelling the economy. The various approaches were compared and contrasted in order to find the best possible way to model the Philippine economy. The strengths and the criticism of each model is also highlighted. In particular, the Cowles Commission Approach, the LSE Approach, and the General Equilibrium method was discussed and evaluated. From the literature review, it appears that there is a need for a new model for the Philippines considering only one model is actively being used for policy simulations. The development of a new macroeconomic model is also consistent with the needs of the major macroeconomic policy making bodies of the State (NEDA, BSP, etc.) to conduct macroeconomic surveillance, analysis and policy simulations. [...]

Climate change is a global challenge that must be addressed at the international level. In December 2015, the Paris Agreement was adopted at the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21) held in Paris. The Paris agreement is aimed at keeping global temperature increases below 2 °C. Toward this goal, the Japanese government plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26% by fiscal year 2030 compared with fiscal year 2013. In this study, we evaluate the feasibility of Japan’s energy policy for reducing CO2 emissions. We construct a macroeconometric model linked to an energy model to show the optimal future energy policy for Japan by applying optimal control to the social welfare function.

[抄録]一国全体や地域経済の数量的分析・経済予測には, マクロ計量モデルがしばしば用いられる. 現在も内閣府をはじめとして様々な機関において, 様々なタイプのマクロモデルの開発が行われており, 日本経済の将来予測などに活用されている. しかしながら, 地域レベルでの計量モデルの構築は, 統計データが国レベルに比べると十分整備されているとは言えない状況にあることなどから, これまであまり行われてきていない. 本稿では, 筆者が開発および維持更新を行っている関西経済予測モデルの説明を行い, その活用事例を示す. 本モデルのように, 県境を越えて広域に跨る経済を取り扱う地域計量モデルは, データの制約等の問題があるものの, 政策決定や予測にその果たす役割は大きいと考える. [Abstract]For the quantitative analysis and economic forecasts of the regional or national economy, macroeconometric models are often used. However, the statistical regional data has not been provided sufficiently in comparison with the national level. Therefore, the construction of a regional macroeconometric model has not been much conducted so far. In this paper, the author introduces the Kansai economic forecasting self-developed and maintained model and shows its example of utilization. The development of regional econometric models like these that deal with the economy of a wide area beyond the prefecture is very important for the prediction and policy-making., [目次] 1. はじめに 2. 地域経済分析の手法と先行研究 3. 関西経済予測モデルの概要 4. 標準予測とシミュレーションの事例 5. むすび

The article presents the evolution of regional macroeconometric models. The authors allocate two types of models which differ in the complexity level of approximable interrelations - aggregated and integrated ones. This paper shows the advantages of integrated models over aggregated ones due to a combination of techniques of multivariate econometric and balance analysis. The algorithm of creation of integrated models includes three stages: defining a dynamic kernel, structural kernel and the technical way of their integration. The authors pay attention to the implementation results of the first stage of the algorithm - the creation of dynamic kernel of integrated model. The dynamic kernel includes equations which characterize relations between economic agents of the regional system and which are merged in the four structural units: consumption, output, employment and prices and incomes. On the basis of multivariate cointegration analysis the researchers obtain estimates of the aggregate model of economic dynamics of Khabarovsky Krai. The peculiarity of this model is high accuracy of approximation of regional dynamics. The authors summarize the simulation results in the form of assessments of short-term and long-term elasticity coefficients which reflect the relations between regional macroeconomic indicators

This scoping paper presents the current landscape of the Philippine macroeconometric models by reviewing the inventory of earlier studies. It finds that a there is a need to devise a new model for the Philippines considering that only two models are actively being used in policy simulations.

In this paper, we model the dynamics of business investment taking into account asset-specific characteristics potentially affecting the reactivity of aggregate and disaggregate capital accumulation over the business cycle. We estimate Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and traditional investment (non-ICT) determinants within a Vector Error Correction Model testing the assumptions of the flexible accelerator and neoclassical model as well as the role of financial constraints and uncertainty. We evaluate our model on Italian data over the period 1980–2012, and we check our results also with Spanish and UK data. Our findings support the assumption that capital is heterogeneous since short- and long-run determinants are significantly different across the assets. Traditional assets experience stock adjustment costs while ICT investment incurs flow adjustment cost. In the short run, liquidity is a key determinant of investment independently of the asset type. In the long run, uncertainty significantly affects ICT. Finally, the results of the counterfactual exercises support the idea that ICT is a key policy variable to foster economic growth.

Cointegration ideas as introduced by Granger in 1981 are commonly embodied in empirical macroeconomic modelling through the vector error correction model (VECM). It has become common practice in these models to treat some variables as weakly exogenous, resulting in conditional VECMs. This paper studies the consequences of different approaches to weak exogeneity for the dynamic properties of such models, in the context of two models of the UK economy, one a national-economy model, the other the UK submodel of a global model. Impulse response and common trend analyses are shown to be sensitive to these assumptions and other specification choices. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and simultaneous equation macroeconometric model (SEM) styles of empirical macroeconomic modelling are compared and contrasted, with reference to two models of the UK economy, namely the long-run structural VAR model of Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin and the COMPACT model. Various styles of impulse response analysis are also compared and contrasted, and used to illustrate model properties. A 'reverse engineering' procedure is used to infer long-run relations of COMPACT comparable to the GLPS cointegrating relations. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley T Sons, Ltd.

The world economy is expanding at a more moderate pace with growth momentum continuing to shift from emerging to advanced economies. World GDP will increase by 3.3 per cent this year - even some-what less than the already modest growth in the recent past. For 2016 and 2017 we expect growth to pick up, although moderately, with global production expanding by 3.7 per cent. Advanced economies will gradually gain momentum over the forecast horizon. Emerging markets are set to overcome the currently weak and partly even recessionary performance but growth remains will remain low by histori-cal standards. Short English version, full version available only in German language. Die weltwirtschaftliche Dynamik bleibt vorerst mäßig. Dabei verlagern sich die Auftriebskräfte weiter von den Schwellenländern zu den fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften. Die Zunahme der Weltproduktion, gerechnet auf Basis von Kaufkraftparitäten, wird in diesem Jahr mit einer Rate von 3,3 Prozent noch etwas geringer ausfallen als in den vergangenen beiden Jahren. Im kommenden Jahr dürfte sie sich auf 3,7 Prozent verstärken, und für 2017 erwarten wir einen Zuwachs der Weltproduktion in ähnlicher Größenordnung. In den fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften nimmt die konjunkturelle Dynamik sukzessive zu. Hier wirkt die weiterhin sehr expansive Geldpolitik zunehmend stimulierend, da die Entschuldungsprozesse im privaten Sektor in wichtigen Ländern vorerst offenbar zu einem Ende gekommen sind. Zudem wirkt der gesunkene Ölpreis anregend. In den Schwellenländern dürfte sich die derzeit sehr schwache, zum Teil sogar rezessive Entwicklung im Prognosezeitraum zwar verbessern, im längerfristigen Vergleich bleibt der Produktionsanstieg aber sehr moderat. Der nach der Abwertung des Renminbi vielfach befürchtete weltweite Abwertungswettlauf findet bereits längst statt. Er ist eine Folge zeitlich gestaffelter monetärer Expansion und führt im Ergebnis zu einem weltweit niedrigeren Zinsniveau und einer stark ausgeweiteten globalen Liquidität - mit allen damit verbundenen Risiken.

Recently, the Lao PDR has achieved high economic growth at around 7-8 percent annually which is very stable and robust growth in Asian economic dynamics, in particular in ASEAN. Vital public investments play an important role to develop social infrastructures and then strengthen the supply-side economy. This paper analyzes the macroeconomic structure and causes of high economic growth of Lao PDR by utilizing a macroeconometric model. According to the econometric analysis, vital public sector investment behaviors have caused to strengthen the supply-side economy and exports, which resulted in foreign capital and public investment increases through its virtuous circle.

This study simulates with two dynamic models the macroeconomic and public finance outcomes of a reduction in the corporate income tax rate in Finland. FOG-model is a dynamic CGE model, which is calibrated to the Finnish economy. NiGEM is a multi-country macroeconometric model. The results show that a surprising cut in the corporate income tax rate falls after all adjustments both on new investments and the yield of existing capital. The losses in the tax revenues are capitalized in the market value of the firms, of which many are partly foreign-owned. Investments increase, but the influence in production is mitigated by low reaction of labour supply. Wages increase as well as the public expenditure relates to wages. Gross profits do dot change much. The dynamic effects on tax bases compensate for 30–50 per cent of the losses in the corporate income tax revenues, depending on the model used. If also the increased public expenditure is considered, the compensation rate falls to 25–30 percent. If the tax rate cut is announced well in advance, both the macroeconomic and the public finance results are more favourable. The simulations do not consider the positive effects of profit shifting on corporate income tax revenues.

The economic situation of all the major developed countries has changed significantly during the 2007-2010 period. Yet many economic policies have been kept in place. This is true in particular of a key measure in French government policy: tax reductions on overtime hours and their exemption from social charges. In this article we propose simulations of this scheme based on the economic context in which it is implemented. According to our simulations, this kind of measure is pro-cyclical and therefore poorly suited to the current situation of the French economy. Furthermore, even in the case of good conditions, the scheme would not be funded. Without financing, this measure would widen the deficit and would amount to a fiscal stimulus. Financing it through an increase in levies would radically change its nature.

Šis tyrimas yra vienas iš pirmųjų bandymų sukurti Lietuvos ūkio vidutinės apimties struktūrinį makroekonometrinį modelį, įtraukiantį ir finansų sektorių. Modelis yra skirtas praėjusio dešimtmečio ekonominiam ciklui Lietuvoje tirti. Skaidri modelio struktūra ir intuityvios ją sudarančios ekonometrinės lygtys turėtų būti naudingos atliekant išsamią ūkio sektorių analizę, analizuojant ekonominės politikos poveikį ir sudarant trumpo laikotarpio ekonomines prognozes. Išskirtinis modelio bruožas yra tai, kad į modeliuojamą ekonominę sistemą organiškai įtraukiami įvairūs finansų sektoriaus kintamieji. Sudarant modelį, atsižvelgiama į tai, kad tiek kredito srautas (credit flow), tiek kredito lygis (credit stock) turi poveikį ūkio raidai.Šį poveikį gali sustiprinti vadinamasis finansinio akceleratoriaus efektas. Vertinant visuminės paklausos požiūriu matyti, kad kredito srautas paskatina vartojimą ir verslo investicijas. Vertinant visuminės pasiūlos požiūriu išryškėja, kad iš kredito finansuojamos verslo investicijos didina ūkio gamybinį pajėgumą, bet kartu keičia kapitalo struktūrą, nes investicijosį statybą, kaip paaiškėja, nuo kredito srauto priklauso labiau negu investicijos į gamybą. Kredito (privačiojo sektoriaus įsiskolinimas) lygis ir su juo susijusios skolos tvarkymo išlaidos neigiamai veikia įmonių pelną ir namų ūkių disponuojamąsias pajamas. Be to, modelis rodo, kad kreditas didina ūkio plėtros (o krizės metu – nuosmukio) spartą, ir tai lemia keli grįžtamojo ryšio ciklai: 1) didelis kredito srautas, nukreiptasį privatųjį sektorių, padidina visuminę paklausą, įmonių pelną ir darbo užmokestį, o tai sukelia teigiamą antrinį poveikį trumpu ir vidutinės trukmės laikotarpiu; 2) galimybė lengvai gauti paskolas didina nekilnojamojo turto kainas, dėl to didėja paskolos užstato vertė, aktyvinama statybų veikla ir dar labiau didėja kredito paklausa (finansinio akceleratoriaus efektas); 3) didėjant paskoloms, didėja indėlių bankuose, dalis šių indėlių tampa naujų paskolų finansavimo šaltiniu (kredito multiplikatoriaus efektas). Bendras modelio ekonominės sistemos kitimas iš principo atitinka faktinę ūkio raidą modelio sprendinio imties laikotarpiu, o prognozuojama kaita už duomenų imties ribų – faktines raidos trumpu laikotarpiu tendencijas. Modelio ekonominės sistemos kitimas tinkamai perteikia ir pagrindinius vidinės devalvacijos ypatumus: nominaliąją darbo užmokesčio korekciją, nekilnojamojo turto burbulo sprogimą, finansinio sverto mažėjimą ir stiprią realiąją ekonominio aktyvumo korekciją. Modeliavimo rezultatai taip pat rodo, kad be fiskalinio stimulo ir spartaus eksporto atsigavimo nuo ekonominio nesubalansuotumo prie subalansuotos plėtros būtų einama gana lėtai ir sudėtingai. Tikėtina, kad ekonominė stagnacija truktų iki 2015–2016 m., o vėliau vyktų palaipsnis ūkio atsigavimas. Vis dėlto, jei subalansuota ekonomika sietina su žemesnėmis nekilnojamojo turto kainomis ir tolesniu kapitalo bei darbo jėgos išteklių nukreipimu iš dideliu cikliškumu pasižyminčių ūkio sektorių, ūkio atsigavimas gali pasirodyti esąs netvarus. Norint pasiekti tvarų ekonomikos atsigavimą ir subalansuotą ūkio plėtrą, ekonominį aktyvumą skatinančias valdžios sektoriaus išlaidas būtina derinti su didelėmis struktūrinėmis reformomis. Kitame šio modelio pagrindu parengtame straipsnyje ketinama pateikti ekonominių šokų analizę, taip pat paanalizuoti įvairius ekonominės raidos scenarijus, kurie leistų nustatyti pasirinktų finansinių, ekonominės politikos ir išorės aplinkos kintamųjų įtaką faktinei pastarojo meto šalies ūkio raidai. In this paper we develop a medium-sized structural macroeconometric model with a simple financial block for the case of the Lithuanian economy. Special emphasis is put on the role of credit conditions during the boom and downturn episode. It is maintained in the model that both stocks and flows of credit have effects on the economy, and direct effects can also be amplified by financial accelerator and credit multiplier effects. The in-sample and short-term out-of-sample dynamics of the model system is reasonably close to the actual economic developments. The model correctly describes basic features of the internal devaluation environment during the crisis episode: a downward nominal adjustment of wages, deflating housing bubble, deleveraging pressures and a sharp real adjustment. The analysis confirms that without fiscal intervention and buoyant recovery of exports, the process of natural adjustment of past economic imbalances would have been considerably longer and more severe. The model serves as a basis for further, more elaborate shock and scenario analyses.

In this study, an attempt has been made of develop a dynamic macroeconometric model of Pakistan’s economy to examine the behaviour of major macroeconomic variables such as output, consumption, investment, government expenditure, money, interest rates, prices, exports, and imports. The model consists of 21 equations, of which 13 are behavioural and the rest are identities. The Engle-Granger two-step cointegration procedure is used to derive the long-run and short -run elasticities for the period 1972-2009. The test of significance of each estimated equation seems to validate the model. The estimated long-run parameters are used to perform simulation experiments to determine the model’s ability to track historical data and to assess the behaviour of the key macroeconomic variables in response to the changes in selected exogenous variables. The results indicate that the majority of macroeconomic variables follow an increasing trend over the period of simulation, 2009-2013.

Šiame straipsnyje pateikiama scenarijų ir šokų analizė, atlikta pasitelkiant anksčiau sukurtą Lietuvos struktūrinį makroekonominį modelį, apimantį finansų sektorių. Scenarijų analizė atskleidžia, kad ypatingo ekonominės veiklos suintensyvėjimo, vadinamojo bumo, metu palankios kreditavimo sąlygos ir didelė kredito pasiūla gana nuosaikiai skatino šalies ekonomikos augimą, bet kartu reikšmingai prisidėjo prie ūkio perkaitimo. Praėjusį dešimtmetį, kai ūkis sparčiai augo, eksportas, palaikomas didelės užsienio paklausos, buvo labai svarbus ūkio plėtros veiksnys, bet pasaulinės ekonomikos krizės metu, šalies eksporto apimčiai laikinai sumažėjus, tai labai neigiamai paveikė bendrą ekonominio aktyvumo lygį. Scenarijų analizė taip pat parodo, kad nepakankamai nuosaiki fiskalinės politikos pozicija bumo metu galėjo lemti didesnį ūkio perkaitimo spaudimą, galiausiai – sunkesnę ekonomikos krizę. Sprendžiant iš modelio scenarijų analizės rezultatų, būsto kainų burbulo formavimosi negalima sieti su kokiu nors vienu specifiniu ekonominiu veiksniu. Maždaug nuo 2005 m. labai svarbus būsto kainų didėjimo veiksnys buvo namų ūkių pajamų augimas, glaudžiai susijęs su didėjančiomis valdžios sektoriaus išlaidomis. Užsienio finansiniais ištekliais finansuotos kredito pasiūlos ir sparčiai didėjusio eksporto tiesioginis teigiamas poveikis būsto kainoms taip pat gana akivaizdus. Kadangi valdžios sektoriaus išlaidos daugiausia priklauso nuo objektyvios ekonominės ir finansinės situacijos (t. y. nuo valdžios sektoriaus pajamų, o ne nuo diskrecinių politinių sprendimų didinti skolinimusi grindžiamas išlaidas), tai tikėtina, kad sparčiai augusi pasaulio ekonomika, didelė kredito pasiūla ir palankios kreditavimo sąlygos būsto kainoms galėjo daryti kur kas didesnį poveikį nei modeliu atskleidžiamas jų tiesioginis poveikis. Siekiant ištirti Lietuvos ekonomikos jautrumą įprastiniams ekonominiams bei finansiniams šokams ir išsiaiškinti, kaip jautrumas jiems priklauso nuo ekonominio ciklo fazės, atliekama modeliuojamą ekonominę sistemą veikiančių šokų analizė. Iš jos pirmiausia matyti tai, kad modeliuojamos ekonominės sistemos jautrumas šokams perteklinio įsiskolinimo krizės metu padidėja. Tai daugiausia susiję su ta aplinkybe, kad dideliu finansiniu svertu pasižyminčiame ūkyje būsto kainos tampa jautresnės namų ūkių disponuojamųjų pajamų ir finansavimo pokyčiams. Šokų poveikis sumodeliuotai ekonominei sistemai iš esmės atitinka ekonominę intuiciją ir logiką. Trumpalaikis paskolų palūkanų normų padidinimas vidutinės trukmės laikotarpiu turi nuosaikų ekonomikos plėtrą stabdantį poveikį – daugiausia dėl neigiamo poveikio investicijų paklausai ir būsto kainoms. Ir priešingai, paskolų palūkanų normų didinimas prieš prasidedant 2008 m. pasaulinei finansų krizei ir ypač krizės pradžioje galėjo pastūmėti šalies ekonomiką „lūžio taško“ link. Bankų skolos užsieniui nuolatinio pobūdžio didėjimas šalies ekonomikai turėjo laikiną skatinamąjį poveikį, ir šis poveikis daugiausia susijęs su visuminės paklausos palaikymu. Šokų analizės rezultatai taip pat rodo, kad, esant pertekliniam įsiskolinimui, papildomas bankų skolinimasis iš užsienio (ir skolinimas šalies ūkiui) nėra krizės įveikimo būdas. Kitas nagrinėjamas ekonominis šokas – ekonominio aktyvumo nuolatinio pobūdžio didėjimas užsienio prekybos partnerių šalyse – turi geroką teigiamą poveikį tiek ekonomikos pakilimo, tiek nuosmukio laikotarpiais, nes taip didėja šalies eksporto paklausa, investicijos į pramonę, auga gamybos našumas. Nuolatinio pobūdžio valdžios sektoriaus vartojimo išlaidų didėjimas daugiausia veikia visuminę paklausą. Poveikis realiajam ekonominiam aktyvumui bumo metais labai nedidelis, tačiau fiskalinė politika gali turėti apčiuopiamą stabilizacinį poveikį įvykus krizei, trumpuoju ir vidutinės trukmės laikotarpiu ji padeda išvengti skolos defliacijos spąstų. Ilgalaikis fiskalinio skatinimo vykstant krizei poveikis atliekant šį tyrimą nebuvo nagrinėjamas, tačiau tikėtina, kad krizei įveikti fiskalinio skatinimo nepakanka – kartu būtina taikyti ir esmines struktūrines ūkio reformas. In this paper we implement shock and scenario analyses for the previously developed structural macroeconometric model with the financial sector of the Lithuanian economy. We find evidence that easy credit conditions and active credit expansion contributed moderately to real economic growth but significantly added to overheating pressures. During the boom episode, buoyant external environment provided a strong background for export-led growth, which was later strongly affected by a temporary foreign trade collapse at the outset of the economic crisis. We also find that government’s discretionary fiscal policies may have contributed to the economic overheating and severity of the ensuing crisis by not adopting sufficiently prudent fiscal stance during the boom episode. The model confirms that more favourable interest rate environment and accommodating fiscal policies are important for providing a temporary relief for the crisis-stricken economy but deep structural transformation of the economy may be needed for a sustainable recovery to take hold.

Analysis of macroeconomic environment is important to any enterprise. Moreover, analysis of regional or even global trends is essential to exporters. Therefore the article contains the analysis of the main macroeconomic indicators of the EU countries and Russia, as these are Latvia’s main export markets. In order to evaluate development opportunities and risks, it is necessary to elaborate certain forecasts. Latvia’s macroeconometric model, which is mentioned in the article, enables to calculate forecasts of the main macroeconomic indicators, allowing to evaluate the influence of the economic development of our main export partners on Latvia’s economy. Despite the limitations of the use of macroeconomic models during the crisis, it is possible to use such models in scenario analysis. Several scenarios elaborated with Latvia’s Macroeconometric Model, using the results of analysis, are presented in the article.

Diese Arbeit beschreibt das makroökonometrische Modell des IWH: ein auf Quartalsdaten gestütztes, strukturelles Modell für die deutsche Volkswirtschaft. Der Beitrag konzentriert sich auf die Spezifikation und Schätzungen der angebotsseitigen Aspekte des Modells. Dieser Ansatz gewährleistet ein theoretisch fundiertes langfristiges Modellgleichgewicht. Somit verbindet das Modell kurzfristig gewünschte Prognoseeigenschaften mit langfristigen theoretischen Anforderungen. Für einige makroökonomische Aggregate werden kurz- bis langfristige Auswirkungen von Angebots- und Nachfrageschocks dargestellt. Zudem werden durch Modellsimulationen die Auswirkungen außenwirtschaftlicher Schocks auf das Gesamtmodell illustriert. This paper describes the IWH macroeconometric model, a quarterly structural model for the German Economy. It focuses on the specification and estimation on supply-side aspects of the model. This approach guarantees a theoretical derived long-run model equilibrium. It combines short-run forecasting requirements with a long-run theoretical foundation. For some macroeconomic aggregates short- and long-run effects of supply- and demand shocks are illustrated. Additionally, effects of external shocks are investigated through model simulations to illustrate aggregate model characteristics.

This paper presents CESAM, a macroeconometric model of the Dutch economy based on annual data. CESAM can be characterized as a Keynesian expenditure model including a neoclassical production model and a post-Keynesian financial model. This characterization holds for most of the Dutch macroeconometric models including, for instance, FREIA-KOMPAS of the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. There are, however, some interesting features that distinguish CESAM from other Dutch models: the production structure is based on a putty-clay vintage approach; the financial model is based on a system of financial accounts and is modelled using the portfolio approach; and the institutional structure of Dutch public finance is described in detail. The main objectives in using the model are to generate medium-term forecasts of the Dutch economy and to analyse economic policy.

This paper gives an overview of the current version of the quarterly macroeconomic model of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank for Austria. The model is a small to medium size macroeconomic model. It is in the tradition of the neoclassical synthesis and is therefore in line with most models used by euro system central banks. The model has been extended in several ways compared with the previous version. The most important changes concern the use of oil and import competitor's prices in the supply block, a more detailed treatment of government receipts, the use of tax rates as policy instruments as well as a dynamic import demand indicator. In the empirical part, the paper presents some simulation results to show the impact of tax increases on the Austrian economy and the reaction of the model to five standard macroeconomic shocks: Increases of the value added tax, the personal income tax and the corporate income tax by the same amount have different effects on the Austrian economy. The reaction of the model to macroeconomic shocks is characterized by a high demand multiplier and a low negative impact of price competitiveness on exports.

Title Page, Thanks, Table of Contents Introduction The Spanish Economy Data of the Model The Model Simulations Conclusion Bibliography Appendix List of Abbreviations, List of Tables, List of Figures Erklärung, The objective of this doctoral thesis is modelling the Spanish economy in a small macro-econometric model. The model serves three purposes: economic analysis, policy simulation and short term forecasting. The 27 behavioural equations are largely estimated as error-correction equations. Most of them consist of a long term equilibrium relationship based on economic theory and short term dynamics and thus model a dynamic adjustment process in the case of deviations from the long term steady state. The data base of the model is mainly taken from the seasonally unadjusted quarterly national accounts. In some cases, where only annual data are available a method of temporal disaggregation is applied. Exports of goods are disaggregated further than in the national accounts. Five standard shock simulations are carried out and analysed., Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die Modellierung der spanischen Wirtschaft in einem kleinen makro-ökonometrischen Modell. Das Modell dient drei Anwendungszwecken: ökonomische Analyse, Politiksimulationen und Kurzfristprognosen. Die 27 Verhaltensgleichungen wurden weitgehend als Fehlerkorrekturgleichungen geschätzt. Die meisten bestehen aus einer theoretisch fundierten langfristigen Gleichgewichtsbeziehung und der Kurzfristdynamik. Somit wird ein dynamischer Anpassungsprozess im Falle einer Abweichung vom Gleichgewichtspfad modelliert. Die Daten sind Ursprungswerte. Sie stammen hauptsächlich aus den vierteljährlichen volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen (VGR). In Fällen, in denen nur Jahresdaten zur Verfügung stehen, wird eine Methode der temporalen Disaggregation angewendet. Die Güterexporte werden in regionaler Hinsicht weiter disaggregiert als dies in den VGR der Fall ist. Fünf Standard- Schocksimulationen werden durchgeführt und analysiert.

Using a newly constructed macroeconometric model for Germany and the rest of the Euro area, we investigate the macroeconomic effects of structural labor market reforms in Germany. We find that neither the fact that Germany can no longer pursue an independent monetary policy nor the possibility that other countries in the Euro area might react to reforms in Germany by implementing labor market reforms themselves constitute impediments to successful reforms. Reforms would relative quickly bring down unemployment and increase GDP significantly. Even former labor market "insiders" would gain as net wages increase due to falling unemployment insurance contributions.

The study provide an analysis of the macroeconomic issues surrounding the reforms needed to meet the country’s growth target, as well as to identify existing policy and structural constraints and macroeconomic policy reforms measures that would help to remove those constraints. The indicative forecasts have been generating by two types of macroeconomic models. The first is a Revised Minimum Standard Model - eXtended (RMSM-X) that provides a simple spreadsheet-based tool for feasibility and sustainability analysis of the economy of Uzbekistan. The second provides is an econometric model of the macro economy for making rational and consistent predictions about Uzbekistan’s overall economic activity, the standard components of the balance of payments, the expenditure concepts of the national accounts, and the financial sector balances. The model applies a conventional framework to the economic system and, as a policy-oriented system it incorporates key parameters for policy formulation.

Ekonominės ir socialinės plėtros šalies regionuose tyrimo procesas yra gana sudėtingas, todėl būtina išskirti pagrindinius kintamuosius ir formalizuoti priklausomybes tarp jų, siekiant parengti regiono plėtros ekonometrinį modelį. Lietuvoje būtina kurti ir taikyti regionų ekonometrinius modelius, nes EK reglamentas reikalauja išankstinio būsimo programavimo periodo investicijų srauto vertinimo. Politiniai sprendimai, siejami su finansiniais srautais atskiruose regionuose, taip pat reikalauja detalaus išankstinio vertinimo. Todėl pagrindinis straipsnio tikslas yra tirti regiono funkcionavimo dėsningumus bei pagrįsti siūlomą ekonometrinį modelį ir jo pritaikomumo prielaidas. Šiuo metu Lietuvoje nėra ekonometrinių modelių atskiriems regionams kūrimo praktikos, todėl būtina analizuoti kitų šalių patirtį ir tirti jau naudojamų modelių pritaikomumo galimybes mūsų šalyje. Siūlomo regiono ekonometriniame modelyje formalizuojama geografinė modelio aprėptis, prekių rinka, veiksnių rinka, prekių ir veiksnių kainos nustatymas, viešasis sektorius, regioninės pajamos ir skurdas, dinaminė parametrizacija ir prognozavimas. Modelio lygtys parametrizuojamos daugiamatės tiesinės regresijos metodu aprašant praeityje regione vykusius procesus. Modelis su patikslintais koeficientais toliau regione prognozuoja aprėpiamoje ateityje tikėtinus ekonominius-socialinius procesus. Tai labai patogu nagrinėti modeliuojant įvairius investicinių procesų konkrečiuose šalies regionuose scenarijus ir laukiamus rezultatus bei ilgalaikes pasekmes. Ekonometrinio modelio pritaikomumo prielaidos iš esmės siejamos su patikimų statistinių duomenų gavimo problema, kuri gali būti sprendžiama vyriausybės lygiu. We consider a macro econometric simulation model to prognosticate the economic and social development of regions in Lithuania. The model is developed on the basis of well-known Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling approach. The proposed model combines features currently found in various regional CGE models with new features and approaches to parameterization. The regional model explicitly incorporates both short-run supply constraints and less than instantaneous adjustment responses in investment, land supply, population, and commodity and factor prices. Thus, the model exhibits both positive gross multiplier and negative displacement effects from exogenous stimuli. [...] The advantages of the model are: multi-regional specification for small areas with explicit economic linkages between the areas; dynamic specification; allowance for permanent changes in unemployment and labour force participation; heterogeneous labour classes and empirically based linkages to poverty; model dynamics that reflect differences between regional and national / international economic settings; and parameterization informed by the vernacular of regional location theory to capture known empirical regularities in regional data. The regional model explores a way to mitigate the interregional economic disparity and to maximize national economic growth by considering growth capability of regions and municipalities in Lithuania. In contrast to actual national econometric models, a regional model is capable of more detailed socio-economic impact of investments of EU structural support analysis and assessment for the Lithuanian counties / municipalities concerned.

Macroeconometric policy simulation models allow for an analysis, and, above all, for a quantification of the effects different economic policies have on the various variables that represent the economy. Despite the seminal ‘Lucas critique’ levelled against them, these models are still widely used, especially within policy-making institutions such as, e.g., central banks. In this paper, a model constructed by the author for the Swiss economy is used to explain, and to quantify the impact of fiscal, monetary, wage and social policies on the functional and personal distribution of income on the one hand, and on the four main objectives of contemporary economic policy on the other. These are: a high GDP growth, low inflation and unemployment, and a low or zero public deficit (the latter replacing the original fourth objective codified, e.g., in the German Stability Act of 1967, which was external balance). Our approach will enable us to answer questions like: Which income group suffers most from a hike in the short term interest rate?, Should a large public spending project better be financed by increasing the VAT rate or the income tax rate?, and How much could the aggregate social security contribution rate be lowered if the formula used for calculating the alignment of retirement pensions was changed?, Arbeitspapiere / Konjunkturforschungsstelle, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, 90

In recent decades new technology has led to increasing demand for well-educated labour at the expense of labour with lower education levels. Moreover, increased imports from low-cost countries have squeezed out many Norwegian manufacturing firms employing a sizeable share of workers with low education. In this article a large macroeconomic model for Norway (MODAG) is used to quantify the importance that technological developments and competition from low-cost countries have had for the economy and for low- and high-educated labour. The results show that above all technological developments, but also increased trade with low-cost countries, have reduced demand for low-educated labour relative to well-educated labour. Wage formation factors have however meant a) that technological developments have also benefited those with low education who still hold a job, and b) that a relative fall in prices on goods from poor parts of the world has kept down wage differentials.

In recent decades new technology has led to increasing demand for well-educated labour at the expense of labour with lower education levels. Moreover, increased imports from low-cost countries have squeezed out many Norwegian manufacturing firms employing a sizeable share of workers with low education. In this article a large macroeconomic model for Norway (MODAG) is used to quantify the importance that technological developments and competition from low-cost countries have had for the economy and for low- and high-educated labour. The results show that above all technological developments, but also increased trade with low-cost countries, have reduced demand for low-educated labour relative to well-educated labour. Wage formation factors have however meant a) that technological developments have also benefited those with low education who still hold a job, and b) that a relative fall in prices on goods from poor parts of the world has kept down wage differentials. Keywords: Skill-bias technological change, international trade, centralized wage setting, inequality, labour demand, macroeconometric model.

International audience; Adjustment mechanisms through the labour market are studied following two approaches. First, relative prices flexibility is analysed with a macro-economic model estimated for 14 European countries. Model simulations are used to study the consequences of asymmetric shocks; wages and employment flexibility only allows an uncompleted and very slow (beyond ten years) re-equilibrium. The labour mobility is then studied with a modelling of a migration-prices-wages-employment model, applied to the American economy divided into four regions. The simulations confirm that the prices relative flexibility allows only limited adjustments facing demand or supply shocks concerning a specific region. The labour mobility plays indeed a re-equilibrium role, but it remains very reduced.; Avec la mise en place de l'euro, les mécanismes d'ajustement au sein de l'Union européenne sont modifiés en profondeur du fait de la disparition du taux de change comme variable d'ajustement. Ceux qui subsistent sont, à titre principal, la flexibilité des salaires et des prix relatifs, la mobilité des facteurs, particulièrement du travail, les politiques budgétaire et monétaire. Ces modes d'ajustement intra-européens constituent un enjeu dont l'importance dépend du caractère asymétrique ou non des chocs et des évolutions structurelles affectant le fonctionnement de l'UE. Le présent article s'intéresse aux mécanismes d'ajustement par le marché du travail à travers deux approches complémentaires. La flexibilité des coûts et des prix relatifs est d'abord analysée à l'aide d'une maquette macroéconomique estimée pour les 14 pays européens. Cette maquette est utilisée pour étudier les conséquences de chocs d'offre ou de demande asymétriques affectant un pays et pour comparer les capacités de réaction des différents pays européens. Ces simulations montrent que la flexibilité des salaires et de l'emploi, et plus généralement la flexibilité des prix relatifs, ne permet qu'un rééquilibrage incomplet et très lent (au-delà de dix ans). Face à un choc négatif sur la demande interne, l'emploi et la production ne retrouvent pas leur niveau initial ou le retrouvent très lentement, et le taux de chômage demeure plus élevé. Le recours à l'instrument budgétaire serait plus approprié. Face à un choc inflationniste et à une perte de compétitivité, la hausse du chômage qui en résulte ne permet qu'un ajustement progressif et incomplet. Les disparités de réaction entre pays face à un choc de même ampleur apparaissent, enfin, non négligeables entre grands et petits pays, notamment en raison des inégalités dans le degré d'ouverture, qui donnent plus de poids aux effets de la compétitivité-prix dans les petits pays, mais aussi entre pays de même taille, du fait des différences structurelles existantes. Ces divergences sont source d'asymétries qui compliquent la conduite de la politique économique dans l'UE, particulièrement en ce qui concerne la politique monétaire commune. La mobilité de la main-d'œuvre est ensuite étudiée avec une modélisation des mouvements migratoires articulée avec un bloc prix-salaires-emploi proche du précédent modèle, appliquée au cas des États-Unis découpés en quatre grandes régions d'une taille voisine de celle des grands pays européens. Les simulations confirment que, comme dans le cas européen, la flexibilité des coûts et des prix relatifs n'autorise que des ajustements limités face à des chocs de demande ou d'offre affectant une région. La mobilité de la main-d'œuvre joue bien un rôle de rééquilibrage, mais celui-ci est d'une ampleur très réduite. Les mouvements migratoires répondent essentiellement à des évolutions structurelles, même aux États-Unis. Des enseignements peuvent en être tirés pour le fonctionnement de l'Union monétaire européenne face à des évolutions asymétriques. La recherche d'une plus grande flexibilité du marché du travail aurait une traduction macroéconomique incertaine et n'aurait qu'une efficacité limitée pour accroître l'ampleur du rééquilibrage par le jeu des prix relatifs. L'espoir également entretenu qu'une plus grande mobilité intra-européenne de la main-d'œuvre pourrait constituer une réponse au moins partielle s'avérerait tout aussi vain.

Adjustment mechanisms through the labour market are studied following two approaches. First, relative prices flexibility is analysed with a macro-economic model estimated for 14 European countries. Model simulations are used to study the consequences of asymmetric shocks; wages and employment flexibility only allows an uncompleted and very slow (beyond ten years) re-equilibrium. The labour mobility is then studied with a modelling of a migration-prices-wages-employment model, applied to the American economy divided into four regions. The simulations confirm that the prices relative flexibility allows only limited adjustments facing demand or supply shocks concerning a specific region. The labour mobility plays indeed a re-equilibrium role, but it remains very reduced., Avec la mise en place de l'euro, les mécanismes d'ajustement au sein de l'Union européenne sont modifiés en profondeur du fait de la disparition du taux de change comme variable d'ajustement. Ceux qui subsistent sont, à titre principal, la flexibilité des salaires et des prix relatifs, la mobilité des facteurs, particulièrement du travail, les politiques budgétaire et monétaire. Ces modes d'ajustement intra-européens constituent un enjeu dont l'importance dépend du caractère asymétrique ou non des chocs et des évolutions structurelles affectant le fonctionnement de l'UE. Le présent article s'intéresse aux mécanismes d'ajustement par le marché du travail à travers deux approches complémentaires. La flexibilité des coûts et des prix relatifs est d'abord analysée à l'aide d'une maquette macroéconomique estimée pour les 14 pays européens. Cette maquette est utilisée pour étudier les conséquences de chocs d'offre ou de demande asymétriques affectant un pays et pour comparer les capacités de réaction des différents pays européens. Ces simulations montrent que la flexibilité des salaires et de l'emploi, et plus généralement la flexibilité des prix relatifs, ne permet qu'un rééquilibrage incomplet et très lent (au-delà de dix ans). Face à un choc négatif sur la demande interne, l'emploi et la production ne retrouvent pas leur niveau initial ou le retrouvent très lentement, et le taux de chômage demeure plus élevé. Le recours à l'instrument budgétaire serait plus approprié. Face à un choc inflationniste et à une perte de compétitivité, la hausse du chômage qui en résulte ne permet qu'un ajustement progressif et incomplet. Les disparités de réaction entre pays face à un choc de même ampleur apparaissent, enfin, non négligeables entre grands et petits pays, notamment en raison des inégalités dans le degré d'ouverture, qui donnent plus de poids aux effets de la compétitivité-prix dans les petits pays, mais aussi entre pays de même taille, du fait des différences structurelles existantes. Ces divergences sont source d'asymétries qui compliquent la conduite de la politique économique dans l'UE, particulièrement en ce qui concerne la politique monétaire commune. La mobilité de la main-d'œuvre est ensuite étudiée avec une modélisation des mouvements migratoires articulée avec un bloc prix-salaires-emploi proche du précédent modèle, appliquée au cas des États-Unis découpés en quatre grandes régions d'une taille voisine de celle des grands pays européens. Les simulations confirment que, comme dans le cas européen, la flexibilité des coûts et des prix relatifs n'autorise que des ajustements limités face à des chocs de demande ou d'offre affectant une région. La mobilité de la main-d'œuvre joue bien un rôle de rééquilibrage, mais celui-ci est d'une ampleur très réduite. Les mouvements migratoires répondent essentiellement à des évolutions structurelles, même aux États-Unis. Des enseignements peuvent en être tirés pour le fonctionnement de l'Union monétaire européenne face à des évolutions asymétriques. La recherche d'une plus grande flexibilité du marché du travail aurait une traduction macroéconomique incertaine et n'aurait qu'une efficacité limitée pour accroître l'ampleur du rééquilibrage par le jeu des prix relatifs. L'espoir également entretenu qu'une plus grande mobilité intra-européenne de la main-d'œuvre pourrait constituer une réponse au moins partielle s'avérerait tout aussi vain.

Criticism against large-scale macroeconometric models built in the tradition of the Cowles Commission approach began to mount in the late 1960s. These misgivings were subsequently reflected in the Lucas critique, Sims critique and disenchantment with the model’s Keynesian foundations. In response, macroeconometric modeling progressed in two parallel ways: one, the improvement of the structure of the traditional models, particularly in terms of specifying the supply side and forward-looking expectations; and two, strengthening or development of alternative techniques, to wit, the LSE approach aided by the advent of cointegration analysis, vector autoregressive (VAR) systems, and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. The emergence of computable general equilibrium models can also be considered a response to the dissatisfaction with macroeconometric models. CGE models are based on a well-specified theoretical framework built on optimizing behavior of economic agents and they readily allow the analysis of the impact of policy changes on resource allocation and income distribution. This paper surveys the development of macroeconometric and CGE models in the Philippines during the period 1990-2002, primarily in terms of their structure and applications. Many of the recent developments in macroeconometric modeling have been incorporated in Philippine models. However, Philippine CGE models have hardly progressed beyond the standard neoclassical framework. Over time, there has been convergence in these two types of quantitative models: CGE models have increasingly used econometric estimates obtained from time-series data while macroeconometric models have been applied to monitor social outcomes like poverty and income distribution. These quantitative tools have become an integral part of policy analysis in the Philippines.

The paper assesses the economic impact of a toll imposed on heavy-goods vehicles proportional to distance driven. The macroeconomic impact of the toll is estimated by using the disaggregated econometric model MULTIMAC of the Austrian economy. The assumption is that all toll revenues will be invested in the network of motorways. The toll is implemented in the model by using information on transport margins from the Austrian input - output statistics. The toll is distributed among goods in different categories of use (exports, consumption, intermediate demand) and thereby increases prices of demand (but not of production). The transport input row in the input - output matrix is changed according to the price elasticities taken from the literature. The toll will raise domestic prices especially for mineral products and the oil processing industry. Due to investment of the revenues the toll will increae GDP. The number of employed will rise in line with GDP and unemployment will drop slightly. The relative price increase of domestic production and the domestic final demand increase (investment) will reduce exports and boost imports leading to a deterioration of the foreign trade balance.

Macroeconometric models have proven to be a useful tool in analyzing the economy-wide or sector-specific effects of policy measures. Simulations using these models have enabled planners and policymakers to trace through the effects of proposed policy changes or external shocks as well as quantify their impacts. Their importance as an aid to planning is well recognized. The NEDA Annual Macro Social Model employed the Error Correction Model representation of the dynamic model. Two-stage estimation is used. The first stage determines the long-run relationship among the variables. The second stage illustrates the short-run dynamics influenced by the deviation from the long-run relationship. The PIDS Annual Macro Social Model had followed the model structure and specifications of the equations used for NEDA AMSM making use of the Ordinary Least Squares estimation. The tracking performances of the two models were evaluated after the dynamic simulation over the period 1992 – 1998. The criterion for good performance is that Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) should be as small as possible. In general, the results showed that the Error Correction Model method performs better than the OLS estimation method. In addition, the ECM captures better the volatile behavior of the data. However, the procedure for doing the ECM method is not as simple as in employing the OLS method since it is quite complicated and tedious. Moreover, a set of cointegrating variables is necessary. In contrast, employing the OLS estimation is simpler. For each variable, a single equation is estimated incorporating both long-run and short-run dynamics. Adequacy of the equations is determined through adjusted R 2, Durbin Watson and stationarity of the residuals.

Розглянуто особливості побудови макроекономічних моделей. Проаналізовано розвиток простої кейнсіанської моделі для закритої та відкритої економіки.

International audience; Quel rôle joue la forêt dans le stockage du carbone ? Comment l'analyser ? Quelles conséquences en tirer dans le cadre de la lutte contre l'effet de serre ? Un modèle forestier quantitatif intégrant des aspects économiques (coûts de gestion, prix et utilisations du bois, valeur de la tonne de carbone, taux d'actualisation) et biologiques (croissance, mortalité, décomposition) tente de répondre à de telles questions. Dans le cas étudié de l'Épicéa commun dans le Nord-Est de la France, il montre que l'avantage lié au carbone serait du même ordre de grandeur que celui dû au bois et pourrait être concrétisé sans grand bouleversement sylvicole. De plus, la plantation d'un à deux hectares serait susceptible de compenser l'émission par ailleurs de cent tonnes de carbone.

The monetary conditions index is a composite index of interest and exchange rates frequently used by central banks, the International Monetary Fund, and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. This paper considers the benefits and weaknesses of the monetary conditions index in the light of large macroeconometric models. It follows that the impact of the exchange rate on gross domestic product relative to the impact of the short-term interest rate is substantially lower under a monetary union. For most countries, including a long-term interest rate only affects the level of the monetary conditions index and not its turning points.

The present macroeconomic model aims to provide a theory-consistent representation of the general structure of the Viet Nam economy and, as such, it offers real and financial sector forecasting and policy simulation capabilities targeted to the needs of the State Bank of Viet Nam. The model serves a dual purpose. First, it provides a framework for making rational and consistent predictions about Viet Nam's overall economic activity, the standard components of the balance of payments, and the production and expenditure concepts of the national accounts. Secondly, it offers a means of quantitatively evaluating the impact of exchange rate policies and other policy changes on the Vietnamese economy, and assessing the feedback effects that changes in key macroeconomic variables of the economy produce in other sectors. The modeling procedure has sought to account for the structure of the Viet Nam economy, the availability of data, and the degree of stability of time-series estimates of parameters during the country's transition process. The present model therefore aims to provide a mechanism to link policies and targets while, at the same time, providing an easy and adaptable means of both forecasting key macroeconomic variables and simulating the interrelationships between economic policy initiatives.

The transition process of the Romanian economy motivated the design of a model that provides for a parsimonious representation of the structure of the economy, exploits the increased availability of data for the system of national accounts, and recognizes time-variant parameters that can result from the transition process. The major features of the model include (1) the simultaneous determination of the overall production and expenditures of the Romanian economy, (2) the development of income concepts by sector, (3) the determination of wages and prices in each sector, and (4) the determination of value added by the primary and secondary sector within the system of equations. The results allow for considerable flexibility in its usage for forecasting, selection of the policy mix and instruments for the targets of a program, and the determination of the appropriate sequencing of policies. USAID/Romania and National Commission for Economic Forecasting of the Council for Coordination, Strategy, and Economic Reform of the Government of Romania.

Reliable, accurate and timely data and appropriate statistical techniques are key elements to produce quality research and sound decision-making process. This paper investigates the uses of data and statistical methodologies in policy research and planning in the Philippine setting. Based on the number of interviews conducted, it is necessary to identify data gaps and areas for basic and applied research in statistics that may enhance policy research and planning.

Macroeconometric models may have lost its fame in the past decade; nevertheless it has remained useful in guiding policy decisions and forecasting. This paper is concerned with its estimation and its uses regarding stabilization policies. Improvement in the present Philippine macroeconomic models is eluded in three general areas.

This paper presents CESAM, a macroeconometric model of the Dutch economy based on annual data. CESAM can be characterized as a Keynesian expenditure model including a neoclassical production model and a post-Keynesian financial model. This characterization holds for most of the Dutch macroeconometric models including, for instance, FREIA-KOMPAS of the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. There are, however, some interesting features that distinguish CESAM from other Dutch models: the production structure is based on a putty-clay vintage approach; the financial model is based on a system of financial accounts and is modelled using the portfolio approach; and the institutional structure of Dutch public finance is described in detail. The main objectives in using the model are to generate medium-term forecasts of the Dutch economy and to analyse economic policy.

It is purpose of this paper to evidence, in the behaviour of the Mini-DMS model for the French economy, some stochastic properties which may confirm, strengthen or sometimes contradict the results obtained from the standard simulation analysis, which is purely deterministic. In particular, the model's capabllities in forecasting, in economic policy experiments, and the model's dynamic behaviour will be faced by regarding forecasts, multipliers and cbaracteristic roots as point estimates and associating with them a measure of dispersion, like a standard error.