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There is now substantial literature on climate model studies of equatorial or tropical stratospheric SO2 injections that aim to counteract the surface warming produced by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. Here we present the results from the first systematic intercomparison of climate responses in three Earth system models wherein the injection of SO2 occurs at different latitudes in the lower stratosphere: CESM2-WACCM6, UKESM1.0 and GISS-E2.1-G. The first two use a modal aerosol microphysics scheme, while two versions of GISS-E2.1-G use a bulk aerosol (One-Moment Aerosol, OMA) and a two-moment (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state, MATRIX) microphysics approach, respectively. Our aim in this work is to determine commonalities and differences between the climate model responses in terms of the distribution of the optically reflective sulfate aerosols produced from the oxidation of SO2 and in terms of the surface response to the resulting reduction in solar radiation. A focus on understanding the contribution of characteristics of models transport alongside their microphysical and chemical schemes, and on evaluating the resulting stratospheric responses in different models, is given in the companion paper (Bednarz et al., 2023). The goal of this exercise is not to evaluate these single-point injection simulations as stand-alone proposed strategies to counteract global warming; instead we determine sources and areas of agreement and uncertainty in the simulated responses and, ultimately, the possibility of designing a comprehensive intervention strategy capable of managing multiple simultaneous climate goals through the combination of different injection locations. We find large disagreements between GISS-E2.1-G and the CESM2-WACCM6 and UKESM1.0 models regarding the magnitude of cooling per unit of aerosol optical depth (AOD) produced, which varies from 4.7 K per unit of AOD in CESM2-WACCM6 to 16.7 K in the GISS-E2.1-G version with two-moment aerosol microphysics. By normalizing the results with the global mean response in each of the models and thus assuming that the amount of SO2 injected is a free parameter that can be managed independently, we highlight some commonalities in the overall distributions of the aerosols, in the inter-hemispheric surface temperature response and in shifts to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, as well as some areas of disagreement, such as the extent of the aerosol confinement in the equatorial region and the efficiency of the transport to polar latitudes. In conclusion, we demonstrate that it is possible to use these simulations to produce more comprehensive injection strategies in multiple climate models. However, large differences in the injection magnitudes can be expected, potentially increasing inter-model spreads in some stratospheric quantities (such as aerosol distribution) while reducing the spread in the surface response in terms of temperature and precipitation; furthermore, the selection of the injection locations may be dependent on the models' specific stratospheric transport.

Retrospective study.The importance of attenuating the cardiovascular autoregulatory disturbances accompanying acute spinal cord injury (SCI) has long been recognised. This report assembles SCI emergency service data and correlates cardiovascular parameters to preserved functional neuroanatomy.The nascent nature of evidence-based reporting of prehospital cardiovascular autoregulatory disturbances in SCI indicates the need to assemble more information.SCI data for24 h were extracted from ambulance and hospital records. The mean arterial pressure (MAP) was calculated. The International Standard for Neurological Classification of SCI (ISNCSCI) evaluates the primary outcome of motor incomplete injury (grades C/D) at acute presentation. Logistic regression was adjusted for multiple confounders that were expected to influence the odds of grade C/D.A cohort of 99 acute SCI cases was retained; mean (SD) age 40.7±20.5 yrs, 88 male, 84 tetraplegic, 65 Grades A/B (motor complete injury), triage time 2±1.6 hrs. The lowest recorded prehospital MAP (mean [SD] 77.9±19, range 45-145 mmHg) approached the nadir for adequate organ perfusion. Thirty-four (52%) grade A/B and 10 (30%) C/D cases had MAP readings85 mmHg. In data adjusted for age, injury level, and triage time a 5 mmHg increase in the lowest MAP value was associated with a 34% increase in the odds of having motor incomplete injury at acute presentation (adjusted OR=1.34; 95% CI 1.11, 1.61; P=0.002).An important observation with implications for timely and selective cardiovascular resuscitation during SCI prehospital care involves significant negative associations between the depth of systemic hypotension and preserved functional neuroanatomy. Regardless of the mechanism, our confounder-adjusted logistic regression model extends in-hospital evidence and provides a conceptual bedside-bench framework for future investigations.

Impacts of chlorinated very short-lived substances (Cl-VSLS) on stratospheric chlorine budget over the first two decades of the 21st century are assessed using the Met Office’s Unified Model coupled to the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol (UM-UKCA) chemistry–climate model; this constitutes the most up-to-date assessment and the first study to simulate Cl-VSLS impacts using a whole atmosphere chemistry–climate model. We examine the Cl-VSLS responses using a small ensemble of free-running simulations and two pairs of integrations where the meteorology was “nudged” to either ERA5 or ERA-Interim reanalysis. The stratospheric chlorine source gas injection due to Cl-VSLS estimated from the free-running integrations doubled from ∼40 ppt Cl injected into the stratosphere in 2000 to ∼80 ppt Cl injected in 2019. Combined with chlorine product gas injection, the integrations showed a total of ∼130 ppt Cl injected into the stratosphere in 2019 due to Cl-VSLS. The use of the nudged model significantly increased the abundance of Cl-VSLS simulated in the lower stratosphere relative to the free-running model. Averaged over 2010–2018, simulations nudged to ERAI-Interim and ERA5 showed 20 ppt (i.e. a factor of 2) and 10 ppt (i.e. ∼50 %) more Cl, respectively, in the tropical lower stratosphere at 20 km in the form of Cl-VSLS source gases compared to the free-running case. These differences can be explained by the corresponding differences in the speed of the large-scale circulation. The results illustrate the strong dependence of the simulated stratospheric Cl-VSLS levels on the model dynamical fields. In UM-UKCA, this corresponds to the choice between free-running versus nudged set-up, and to the reanalysis dataset used for nudging. Temporal changes in Cl-VSLS are found to have significantly impacted recent HCl and COCl2 trends in the model. In the tropical lower stratosphere, the inclusion of Cl-VSLS reduced the magnitude of the negative HCl and COCl2 trends (e.g. from ∼-8%(HCl)/decade and ∼-4 ppt(COCl2)/decade at ∼20 km to ∼-6%(HCl)/decade and ∼ −2 ppt(COCl2)/decade in the free running simulations) and gave rise to positive tropospheric trends in both tracers. In the tropics, both the free-running and nudged integrations with Cl-VSLS included compared much better to the observed trends from the ACE-FTS satellite record than the analogous simulations without Cl-VSLS. Since observed HCl trends provide information on the evolution of total stratospheric chlorine and, thus, the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol, our results demonstrate that Cl-VSLS are a confounding factor in the interpretation of such data and should be factored into future analysis. Unlike the nudged model runs, the ensemble mean free-running integrations did not reproduce the hemispheric asymmetry in the observed mid-latitude HCl and COCl2 trends related to short-term dynamical variability. The individual ensemble members also showed a considerable spread of the diagnosed tracer trends, illustrating the role of natural interannual variability in modulating the diagnosed responses and the need for caution when interpreting both model and observed tracer trends derived over a relatively short time period.

Depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer remains an ongoing environmental issue, with increasing stratospheric chlorine from Very Short-Lived Substances (VSLS) recently emerging as a potential but uncertain threat to its future recovery. Here the impact of chlorinated VSLS on past ozone is quantified, for the first time. using the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model. Model simulations show that between 2010–2019 Cl-VSLS reduced total column ozone by, on average, ~2–3 DU in the springtime high latitudes and by ~0.5–1 DU in the tropics, with up to 5–6 DU monthly and zonal mean Arctic ozone reductions simulated in the springs of 2011, 2014 and 2020. Cl-VSLS impacts during the recent cold Arctic winter of 2019/2020 are also quantified to have resulted in up to 6 % reduction of lower stratospheric ozone and ~6 DU ozone in total by the end of March. On the other hand, the simulations show that the inclusion of Cl-VSLS does not considerably modify the magnitude of the diagnosed recent ozone trends. We also estimate the ozone depletion potential of dichloromethane, the most abundant Cl-VSLS, at 0.0107. Our results thus illustrate a so-far modest but nonetheless non-negligible role of Cl-VSLS in contributing to stratospheric ozone budget over the recent past that if to continue could offset some of the gains achieved by the Montreal Protocol.

The individual and societal factors influencing long-term recreational exercise participation during the transition from adolescence to young adulthood are not well explored. We modelled latent longitudinal recreational exercise trajectories spanning 8 years from age 16 to 24, and examined demographic, socioeconomic, behavioural, academic, and psychological predictors at age 15 of trajectory-group membership. We also explored whether trajectories were associated with health, mental health, and educational achievement at age 25. Finite mixture modelling was conducted with population-based longitudinal cohort study data collected from 2006-2017 by the Longitudinal Survey of Australian Youth (LSAY). The study sample comprised 9,353 students (49% female) from 356 Australian schools. Self-reported recreational exercise frequency data were collected in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, and 2014. Longitudinal latent trajectories of reported recreational exercise participation were estimated using group-based trajectory modelling for two scenarios: daily/guideline-adherent exercise versus non-daily exercise (model 1) and exercise at least once weekly versus exercise less than once weekly (model 2). Four distinct classes of long-term recreational exercise participation were identified for each model. Model 1: guideline-adherent exercisers (17.9% of the sample), never guideline exercisers (27.5%), guideline drop-outs (15.2%) and towards guideline (39.4%). Model 2: regular weekly (69.5% of the sample), decreasing (17.4%), increasing (4.8%), and infrequent (8.3%). In both models, predictors at age 15 for lower long-term exercise participation included female gender, lower self-efficacy, sport participation and parental socioeconomic status, and higher screen-time and academic literacy. At age 25, people in the guideline-adherent exerciser trajectory (model 1) reported better general health, whereas people in the regular weekly trajectory (model 2) had better general health and reduced rates of psychological distress, were happier with life and were more optimistic for the future relative to participants from other trajectory groups. Interventions and health-promotion activities to support sustained engagement in recreational exercise should particularly address the needs of females, people with low self-efficacy, reluctant exercisers, higher academic achievers, and youth experiencing socioeconomic disadvantage.

Despite offsetting global mean surface temperature, various studies demonstrated that Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) could influence the recovery of stratospheric ozone and have important impacts on stratospheric and tropospheric circulation, thereby potentially playing an important role in modulating regional and seasonal climate variability. However, so far most of the assessments of such an approach have come from climate model simulations in which SO2 is injected only in a single location or a set of locations. Here we use CESM2-WACCM6 SAI simulations under a comprehensive set of SAI strategies achieving the same global mean surface temperature with different locations and/or timing of injections: an equatorial injection, an annual injection of equal amounts of SO2 at 15° N and 15° S, an annual injection of equal amounts of SO2 at 30° N and 30° S, and a polar strategy injecting SO2 at 60° N and 60° S only in spring in each hemisphere. We demonstrate that despite achieving the same global mean surface temperature, the different strategies result in contrastingly different magnitudes of the aerosol-induced lower stratospheric warming, stratospheric moistening, strengthening of stratospheric polar jets in both hemispheres and changes in the speed of the residual circulation. In conjunction with the differences in direct radiative impacts at the surface, these drive different impacts on the extratropical modes of variability (Northern and Southern Annular Mode), including important consequences on the northern winter surface climate, as well as on the intensity of tropical tropospheric Walker and Hadley Circulations, which drive tropical precipitation patterns. Finally, we demonstrate that the choice of injection strategy also plays a first-order role in the future evolution of stratospheric ozone under SAI throughout the globe. Overall, our results contribute to an increased understanding of the fine interplay of various radiative, dynamical and chemical processes driving the atmospheric response to SAI, as well as lay the ground for designing an optimal SAI strategy that could form a basis of future multi-model intercomparisons.

The paper describes the development and performance of the Double Extended Stratospheric-Tropospheric (DEST vn1.0) chemistry scheme, which forms a part of the Met Office’s Unified Model coupled to the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol (UM-UKCA) chemistry-climate model, the atmospheric composition model of the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM). The scheme extends the standard Stratospheric-Tropospheric Chemistry scheme (StratTrop) by including a range of important updates to the halogen chemistry. These allow process-oriented studies of stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery, including the impacts from both controlled long-lived ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and emerging issues around uncontrolled very short-lived substances (VSLS). The main updates in DEST are (i) an explicit treatment of 14 of the most important long-lived ODSs; (ii) an inclusion of Br-VSLS emissions and chemistry; and (iii) an inclusion of Cl-VSLS emissions/lower boundary conditions and chemistry. We evaluate the scheme’s performance by comparing DEST simulations against analogous runs made with the standard StratTrop scheme, as well as against observational and reanalysis datasets. Overall, our scheme addresses some significant shortcomings in the representation of atmospheric halogens in the standard StratTrop scheme, and will thus be particularly relevant for studies of ozone layer recovery and processes affecting it, in support of future Ozone Assessment reports.

Drivers with neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs), such as autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are at increased risk of experiencing driving difficulties. An important aspect of driving safety and skill involves hazard detection. This functional magnetic resonance imaging study examined the neural responses associated with driving hazard detection in drivers with ASD, ADHD, and typically developing (TD) drivers. Forty participants (12 ASD, 15 ADHD, 13 TD) ages 16-30 years completed a driving simulator task in which they encountered social and nonsocial hazards; reaction time (RT) for responding to hazards was measured. Participants then completed a similar hazard detection task in the MRI scanner so that neural response to hazards could be measured. Activation of regions of interest considered part of the executive function (EF) and theory of mind (ToM) networks were examined and related to driving simulator behavior. Results showed that stronger activation of the EF network during social hazard processing, including the bilateral dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and posterior parietal cortex, was associated with faster RT to social hazards among drivers with ADHD, but not among drivers with ASD. This provides the first evidence of a relationship between EF network brain activation and driving skills in ADHD and suggests that alterations in this network may underlie driving behavior. In comparison, the current study did not observe a relationship between ToM network activation and RT to social hazards in any group. This study lays the groundwork for relating neural activation to driving behavior among individuals with NDDs.

Individuals with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) may exhibit driving difficulties due to cognitive impairments such as time perception difficulties, a construct related to the perception of time-to-collision (TTC). This study examined the timing abilities of drivers with ASD and ADHD. Sixty participants (nADHD = 20, nASD = 20, nTD = 20) completed a time reproduction task and a TTC estimation task in a driving simulator. Results indicated drivers with ASD were less precise in time reproduction across all time intervals and over-reproduced time at shorter intervals. Drivers with ASD produced larger TTC estimates when driving at a faster speed compared to typically developing drivers. Drivers with ASD, but not ADHD, appear to present difficulties in time estimation abilities.

Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) is a component of neural tissue. Because its accretion into the brain is greatest during the final trimester of pregnancy, infants born before 29 weeks' gestation do not receive the normal supply of DHA. The effect of this deficiency on subsequent cognitive development is not well understood.We assessed general intelligence at 5 years in children who had been enrolled in a trial of neonatal DHA supplementation to prevent bronchopulmonary dysplasia. In the previous trial, infants born before 29 weeks' gestation had been randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive an enteral emulsion that provided 60 mg of DHA per kilogram of body weight per day or a control emulsion from the first 3 days of enteral feeds until 36 weeks of postmenstrual age or discharge home, whichever occurred first. Children from 5 of the 13 centers in the original trial were invited to undergo assessment with the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence (WPPSI) at 5 years of corrected age. The primary outcome was the full-scale intelligence quotient (FSIQ) score. Secondary outcomes included the components of WPPSI.A total of 1273 infants underwent randomization in the original trial; of the 656 surviving children who had undergone randomization at the centers included in this follow-up study, 480 (73%) had an FSIQ score available - 241 in the DHA group and 239 in the control group. After imputation of missing data, the mean (±SD) FSIQ scores were 95.4±17.3 in the DHA group and 91.9±19.1 in the control group (adjusted difference, 3.45; 95% confidence interval, 0.38 to 6.53; P = 0.03). The results for secondary outcomes generally did not support that obtained for the primary outcome. Adverse events were similar in the two groups.In infants born before 29 weeks' gestation who had been enrolled in a trial to assess the effect of DHA supplementation on bronchopulmonary dysplasia, the use of an enteral DHA emulsion until 36 weeks of postmenstrual age was associated with modestly higher FSIQ scores at 5 years of age than control feeding. (Funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and Nu-Mega Ingredients; N3RO Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number, ACTRN12612000503820.).

The paper constitutes part 2 of a study performing a first systematic inter-model comparison of the atmospheric responses to stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections (SAI) at various latitudes as simulated by three state-of-the-art Earth System Models – CESM2(WACCM6), UKESM1.0, and GISS-E2.1-G. We use a set of five sensitivity experiments with constant annual injections of SO2 in the lower stratosphere at either 30° S, 15° S, 0°, 15° N or 30° N. We identify the similarities and differences in the simulated responses amongst the models as well as demonstrate the role of biases in the climatological circulation and specific aspects of the model microphysics and chemistry in driving the inter-model differences. Building on part 1 (Visioni et al., 2022), we explain the simulated differences in the aerosol spatial distribution between the models: CESM2 shows significantly faster shallow branches of the Brewer Dobson circulation facilitating transport of the relatively larger-sized aerosol to higher latitudes; UKESM shows a relatively isolated tropical pipe and older tropical age-of-air confining the relatively smaller-sized aerosols to the tropics; and the two GISS versions with either bulk or modal aerosol microphysics show elevated sulfate levels at higher latitudes as the result of smaller aerosol sizes and relatively stronger horizontal mixing (thus very young stratospheric age-of-air). We then elucidate the role of these factors in driving the stratospheric responses to SAI. We find a large spread in the magnitudes of the tropical lower stratospheric warming amongst the models, which can be partially attributed to the differences in aerosol distribution and sizes. Regarding the stratospheric ozone responses, we find a good agreement in the tropics between the models with modal microphysics, with lower stratospheric ozone changes consistent with the SAI-induced modulation of the large-scale circulation and the resulting changes in transport. In contrast to the relative agreement at low latitudes, we find a large inter-model spread in the Antarctic ozone responses that can largely be explained by the differences in the simulated latitudinal distributions of aerosols as well as the degree of implementation of heterogeneous halogen chemistry on sulfate. Finally, we also find large differences in stratospheric water vapour responses amongst the models, with CESM2 and GISS with modal microphysics both showing significant increases in stratospheric water vapour under SAI consistent with the increase in cold point temperatures that were largely not reproduced in UKESM. For the GISS runs with bulk microphysics, the SAI simulations show contrastingly different stratospheric responses to the models using the modal aerosol treatment, including the absence of lower stratospheric warming as well as significant reductions in stratospheric water vapour and ozone. The results point towards the importance of detailed treatment of aerosol processes, although some problems in halogen chemistry in GISS are identified that require further attention. Overall, our results contribute to an increased understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms as well as the sources of uncertainty in model projections of climate impacts from SAI.

Driving is a cognitively challenging task, and many individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) or with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) struggle to drive safely and effectively. Previous evidence suggests that core neuropsychological deficits in executive functioning (EF) and theory of mind (ToM) may impact driving in ASD and ADHD. This functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study compares the brain mechanisms underlying ToM and EF during a hazard perception driving task. Forty-six licensed drivers (14 ASD, 17 ADHD, 15 typically developing (TD)), ages 16–27 years, viewed a driving scenario in the MRI scanner and were instructed to respond to driving hazards that were either “social” (contained a human component such as a pedestrian) or “nonsocial” (physical objects such as a barrel). All groups of participants recruited regions part of the “social brain” (anterior insula, angular gyrus, right middle occipital gyrus, right cuneus/precuneus, and right inferior frontal gyrus) when processing social hazards, and regions associated with motor planning and object recognition (postcentral gyrus, precentral gyrus, and supplementary motor area) when processing nonsocial hazards. While there were no group differences in brain activation during the driving task, years licensed was predictive of greater prefrontal and temporal activation to social hazards in all participants. Findings of the current study suggest that high-functioning ASD and ADHD licensed drivers may be utilizing similar cognitive resources as TD controls for decisions related to driving-related hazard detection.

Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering has been proposed as a potential solution to reduce climate change and its impacts. Here, we explore the responses of the Hadley circulation (HC) intensity and the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) using the strategic stratospheric aerosol geoengineering, in which sulfur dioxide was injected into the stratosphere at four different locations to maintain the global-mean surface temperature and the interhemispheric and equator-to-pole temperature gradients at present-day values (baseline). Simulations show that, relative to the baseline, strategic stratospheric aerosol geoengineering generally maintains northern winter December–January–February (DJF) HC intensity under RCP8.5, while it overcompensates for the greenhouse gas (GHG)-forced southern winter June–July–August (JJA) HC intensity increase, producing a 3.5 ± 0.4% weakening. The residual change of southern HC intensity in JJA is mainly associated with stratospheric heating and tropospheric temperature response due to enhanced stratospheric aerosol concentrations. Geoengineering overcompensates for the GHG-driven northward ITCZ shifts, producing 0.7° ± 0.1° and 0.2° ± 0.1° latitude southward migrations in JJA and DJF, respectively relative to the baseline. These migrations are affected by tropical interhemispheric temperature differences both at the surface and in the free troposphere. Further strategies for reducing the residual change of HC intensity and ITCZ shifts under stratospheric aerosol geoengineering could involve minimizing stratospheric heating and restoring and preserving the present-day tropical tropospheric interhemispheric temperature differences.

Executive function (EF) deficits are common in autism spectrum disorder (ASD), and previous studies suggest that EF may influence or predict social functioning. Thus, EF is a potential treatment target in this population. However, the nature of how specific metacognition and behavioral regulation components of EF may differentially impact social function remains unclear. The goal of the current study was to examine the relationships between sub-components of EF (e.g., working memory, shifting, inhibition, etc.) and social functioning as measured by parent ratings on the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Functioning (BRIEF) and the Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS), while controlling for the influence of age, sex, and IQ. A second goal was to examine whether BRIEF scores were predictive of clinician-rated measures of ASD symptoms. Behavioral data were acquired from the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange-II database and included 106 children with ASD (ages 5-13). Based on analysis of parent ratings, self-monitoring skills predicted social awareness; shifting ability predicted social cognition; working memory and monitoring skills predicted social communication; initiation predicted social motivation; and shifting ability predicted restrictive and repetitive behaviors among children with ASD. Parent ratings on the BRIEF did not predict clinician-rated measures of ASD symptoms; this requires further study. Overall, the current findings indicate that metacognition and behavioral regulation both contribute to social functioning in ASD, although they each have distinct patterns of influence on different aspects of social functioning. These findings have promising implications for tailoring social interventions for ASD that target specific EF skills.

Azide-modified inositol (InoAz) analogues are valuable as inhibitors and have shown promise as metabolic chemical reporters (MCRs) for labeling inositol-containing glycoconjugates in eukaryotic cells and potentially in mycobacteria, but the synthesis of enantiomerically pure InoAz analogues via traditional approaches is challenging. As a complementary route, here we investigated the application of the Ferrier carbocyclization reaction to the synthesis of enantiopure InoAz analogues starting from readily available azido glucosides. Using this approach combined with a para-methoxybenzyl protecting group strategy, 3-azido-3-deoxy- and 4-azido-4-deoxy-d-myo-inositol were efficiently synthesized. 5-Azido-5-deoxy-d-myo-inositol was inaccessible due to an unusual β-elimination reaction, wherein the azide anion acted as the leaving group. The reported strategy is expected to facilitate continued development of synthetic InoAz analogues as inhibitors or MCRs of inositol-containing glycoconjugates in eukaryotic and mycobacterial systems.

Atmospheric impacts of chlorinated very short-lived substances (Cl-VSLS) over the first two decades of the 21st century are assessed using the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model; this constitutes the most up-to-date assessment as well as the first study to simulate Cl-VSLS impacts using a whole atmosphere chemistry-climate model. We examine the Cl-VSLS responses using a small ensemble of free-running simulations as well as two pairs of integrations where the meteorology was ‘nudged’ to either ERA5 or ERA-Interim reanalysis. The stratospheric chlorine source gas injection due to Cl-VSLS estimated from the free-running integrations doubled from ~40 ppt Cl in 2000 to ~80 ppt Cl in 2019. Combined with chlorine product gas injection, the integrations showed ~130 ppt of total Cl reaching the stratosphere in 2019 due to Cl-VSLS. The use of the nudged model significantly increased the abundance of Cl-VSLS simulated in the lower stratosphere relative to the free-running model. Averaged over 2010–2018, simulations nudged to ERAI-Interim and ERA5 showed up to ~20 ppt (i.e. a factor of two) and up to ~10 ppt (i.e. ~50 %), respectively, more Cl in the lower stratosphere in the form of Cl-VSLS source gases compared to the free-running case. These differences can be explained by the corresponding differences in the speed of the large-scale circulation. The results illustrate the strong dependence of the simulated stratospheric Cl-VSLS levels to the choice between free-running versus nudged set-up, and to the reanalysis dataset used for nudging. Temporal changes in Cl-VSLS are found to have significantly impacted recent HCl and COCl2 trends in the model. In the tropical lower stratosphere, the inclusion of Cl-VSLS reduced the magnitude of the negative HCl and COCl2 trends (e.g. from ~−8 %(HCl)/decade and ~−4 ppt(COCl2)/decade at ~20 km to ~−6 %(HCl)/decade and ~ 2 ppt(COCl2)/decade in the free running simulations) and gave rise to positive tropospheric trends in both tracers. In the tropics, both the free-running and nudged integrations with Cl-VSLS included compared much better to the observed trends from ACE-FTS than the analogous simulations without Cl-VSLS. Since observed HCl trends provide information on the evolution of total stratospheric chlorine and, thus, the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol, our results demonstrate that Cl-VSLS are a confounding factor in the interpretation of such data and should be factored into future analysis. Unlike the nudged model runs, the ensemble mean free-running integrations did not reproduce the hemispheric asymmetry in the observed mid-latitude HCl and COCl2 trends related to short-term dynamical variability. The individual ensemble members also showed a considerable spread of the diagnosed tracer trends, illustrating the role of natural interannual variability in modulating the diagnosed responses, and the need for caution when interpreting both model and observed tracer trends derived over a relatively short time period.

ObjectiveTo identify and descriptively compare medication recommendations among low back pain (LBP) clinical practice guidelines (CPG).MethodsWe searched PubMed, Cochrane Database of Systematic Review, Index to Chiropractic Literature, AMED, CINAHL, and PEDro to identify CPGs that described the management of mechanical LBP in the prior five years. Two investigators independently screened titles and abstracts and potentially relevant full text were considered for eligibility. Four investigators independently applied the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation (AGREE) II instrument for critical appraisal. Data were extracted for pharmaceutical intervention, the strength of recommendation, and appropriateness for the duration of LBP.Results316 citations were identified, 50 full-text articles were assessed, and nine guidelines with global representation met the eligibility criteria. These CPGs addressed pharmacological treatments with or without non-pharmacological treatments. All CPGS focused on the management of acute, chronic, or unspecified duration of LBP. The mean overall AGREE II score was 89.3% (SD 3.5%). The lowest domain mean score was forapplicability,80.4% (SD 5.2%), and the highest wasScope and Purpose,94.0% (SD 2.4%). There were ten classifications of medications described in the included CPGs: acetaminophen, antibiotics, anticonvulsants, antidepressants, benzodiazepines, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), opioids, oral corticosteroids, skeletal muscle relaxants (SMRs), and atypical opioids.ConclusionsNine CPGs, included ten medication classes for the management of LBP. NSAIDs were the most frequently recommended medication for the treatment of both acute and chronic LBP as a first line pharmacological therapy. Acetaminophen and SMRs were inconsistently recommended for acute LBP. Meanwhile, with less consensus among CPGs, acetaminophen and antidepressants were proposed as second-choice therapies for chronic LBP. There was significant heterogeneity of recommendations within many medication classes, although oral corticosteroids, benzodiazepines, anticonvulsants, and antibiotics were not recommended by any CPGs for acute or chronic LBP.

Background: The anti-DFS70 autoantibodies are one of the most commonly and widely described agent of unknown clinical significance, frequently detected in healthy individuals. It is not known whether the DFS70 autoantibodies are protective or pathogenic. One of the factors suspected of inducing the formation of anti-DFS70 antibodies is increased oxidative stress. We evaluated the coexistence of anti-DFS70 antibodies with selected markers of oxidative stress and investigated whether these antibodies could be considered as indirect markers of oxidative stress. Methods: The intensity of oxidative stress was measured in all samples via indices of free-radical damage to lipids and proteins such as total oxidant status (TOS), concentrations of lipid hydroperoxides (LPH), lipofuscin (LPS), and malondialdehyde (MDA). The parameters of the non-enzymatic antioxidant system, such as total antioxidant status (TAS) and uric acid concentration (UA), were also measured, as well as the activity of superoxide dismutase (SOD). Based on TOS and TAS values, the oxidative stress index (OSI) was calculated. All samples were also tested with indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA) and 357 samples were selected for direct monospecific anti DFS70 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) testing. Results: The anti-DFS70 antibodies were confirmed by ELISA test in 21.29% of samples. Compared with anti-DFS70 negative samples we observed 23% lower concentration of LPH ( P = .038) and 11% lower concentration of UA ( P = .005). TOS was 20% lower ( P = .014). The activity of SOD was up to 5% higher ( P = .037). The Pearson correlation showed weak negative correlation for LPH, UA, and TOS and a weak positive correlation for SOD activity. Conclusion: In samples positive for the anti-DFS70 antibody a decreased level of oxidative stress was observed, especially in the case of samples with a high antibody titer. Anti-DFS70 antibodies can be considered as an indirect marker of reduced oxidative stress or a marker indicating the recent intensification of antioxidant processes.

Significance Developing molecules capable of binding to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and inhibiting viral infection is of utmost importance for the detection and therapy of COVID-19. We have developed and engineered a serum-stable RNA aptamer specific for SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. We further show that scaffolding three aptamers together increases the binding efficiency to the low picomolar range and enables very efficient neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 infection in cells. The aptamer also shows high affinity for spike protein from variants of concern. Due to its small size and chemical stability, our aptamer holds potential as an alternative to antibodies and nanobodies targeting spike protein., The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has created an urgent need for new technologies to treat COVID-19. Here we report a 2′-fluoro protected RNA aptamer that binds with high affinity to the receptor binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, thereby preventing its interaction with the host receptor ACE2. A trimerized version of the RNA aptamer matching the three RBDs in each spike complex enhances binding affinity down to the low picomolar range. Binding mode and specificity for the aptamer–spike interaction is supported by biolayer interferometry, single-molecule fluorescence microscopy, and flow-induced dispersion analysis in vitro. Cell culture experiments using virus-like particles and live SARS-CoV-2 show that the aptamer and, to a larger extent, the trimeric aptamer can efficiently block viral infection at low concentration. Finally, the aptamer maintains its high binding affinity to spike from other circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains, suggesting that it could find widespread use for the detection and treatment of SARS-CoV-2 and emerging variants.

The atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle is separated into the contributions from changes in direct radiative heating and photolysis rates using specially designed sensitivity simulations with the UM-UKCA (Unified Model coupled to the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol model) chemistry–climate model. We perform a number of idealised time-slice experiments under perpetual solar maximum (SMAX) and minimum conditions (SMIN), and we find that contributions from changes in direct heating and photolysis rates are both important for determining the stratospheric shortwave heating, temperature and ozone responses to the amplitude of the 11-year solar cycle. The combined effects of the processes are found to be largely additive in the tropics but nonadditive in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitudes during the dynamically active season. Our results indicate that, in contrast to the original mechanism proposed in the literature, the solar-induced changes in the horizontal shortwave heating rate gradients not only in autumn/early winter but throughout the dynamically active season are important for modulating the dynamical response to changes in solar forcing. In spring, these gradients are strongly influenced by the shortwave heating anomalies at higher southern latitudes, which are closely linked to the concurrent changes in ozone. In addition, our simulations indicate differences in the winter SH dynamical responses between the experiments. We suggest a couple of potential drivers of the simulated differences, i.e. the role of enhanced zonally asymmetric ozone heating brought about by the increased solar-induced ozone levels under SMAX and/or sensitivity of the polar dynamical response to the altitude of the anomalous radiative tendencies. All in all, our results suggest that solar-induced changes in ozone, both in the tropics/mid-latitudes and the polar regions, are important for modulating the SH dynamical response to the 11-year solar cycle. In addition, the markedly nonadditive character of the SH polar vortex response simulated in austral spring highlights the need for consistent model implementation of the solar cycle forcing in both the radiative heating and photolysis schemes.

Background:Enteral sildenafil may be used in the intensive care unit for treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension. We aimed to determine if initial enteral sildenafil dosing is safe in children receiving concurrent vasoactive infusions.Methods:We performed a single-centre retrospective chart review that included patients less than 2 years of age in paediatric and cardiovascular intensive care units at an academic medical centre from 1 January, 2010 to 30 November, 2016. Included patients received concomitant enteral sildenafil and a continuously infused vasoactive agent. Exclusion criteria consisted of mechanical circulatory support, any form of dialysis, or a suspicion of septic shock at the time of sildenafil initiation. We sought to identify patients who developed worsening hemodynamic instability after initiation of enteral sildenafil defined as one or more of the following observations within 24 hours of sildenafil initiation: sildenafil discontinuation, total fluid bolus receipt >10 ml/kg, increased vasoactive support, epinephrine intravenous push administration, and/or the initiation of mechanical circulatory support.Results:Worsening hemodynamic instability was identified in 35% of the 130-patient cohort. Patients younger than 4 months were at increased risk of further hemodynamic instability compared with older patients (56% versus 44%, p = 0.0003) despite receiving lower median doses (1.28 mg/kg/day versus 1.78 mg/kg/day, p = 0.01).Conclusions:Critically ill children receiving vasoactive infusions may be at increased risk for further hemodynamic instability after initiation of enteral sildenafil, particularly in younger patients. This population may benefit from lower starting enteral sildenafil doses of 0.25 mg/kg/dose or less every 8 hours to avoid further hemodynamic compromise.

The aim of the presented study was to deposit protective-conducting Mn1.45Co1.45Fe0.1O4 and Mn1.5Co1.5O4 spinel coatings on the Crofer 22 H ferritic steel by means of electrophoresis and to evaluate their physicochemical properties after high-temperature oxidation under thermal cycling conditions. When the Crofer 22 H steel – whether uncoated or coated with the two spinels – was oxidized in 48-h cycles involving a temperature of either 750 or 800 °C, its oxidation kinetics approximately obeyed the parabolic rate law. The oxidation rate observed for uncoated steel was higher than that for the studied coating/steel systems. The Fe-doped spinel coating material improved the oxidation resistance of steel to a higher degree than the undoped spinel coating. The obtained bulk spinels exhibited a regular phase composition and high electrical conductivity, while the Mn1.45Co1.45Fe0.1O4 and Mn1.5Co1.5O4 coatings were dual-phase, compact, and exhibited good adhesion to the metallic substrate. The area-specific resistance values measured for the steel/coating systems indicate that the coatings significantly improve the electrical properties of the studied ferritic steel, especially at 800 °C. The conducted research confirmed the suitability of the Mn1.45Co1.45Fe0.1O4 and Mn1.5Co1.5O4 spinels as coatings on the Crofer 22 H ferritic steel to be applied in the production of interconnects used in intermediate-temperature SOFCs.

Driving is a neuropsychologically complex task; this can present challenges for individuals with neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs) such asautism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Deficits in theory of mind (ToM) and executive function (EF) are common features of ASD and ADHD, respectively, and may influence driving processes such as hazard perception. No studies have directly examined the neuropsychological contributions to hazard detection among drivers with ASD compared to ADHD.In the current study, 48 participants ages 16-30 years (13 ASD, 17 ADHD, 18 typically developing (TD)) completed a driving simulator task in which they encountered hazards in the driving environment. Hazards varied in whether they were social (contained a human component) or nonsocial (were physical objects) to examine the contribution of ToM and social processing to hazard response. Additionally, participants completed a neuropsychological battery targeting ToM and EF/attention skills (cognitive tasks and self-report measures).Within the ASD group, participants responded relatively slower to social compared to nonsocial hazards; no effect of hazard type was observed in the ADHD or TD groups. Additionally, measures of ToM and EF were correlated with driving performanceamong ASD participants; within the ADHD group, only self-reported behavior regulation was associated with driving performance. Broadly, this suggests that cognitive factors such as ToM and EF impact driving hazard performance in ASD and ADHD. The results of the study have implications for developing driving intervention programs for individuals with NDDs.

BACKGROUND: Our goal was to identify racial and ethnic disparities in health outcome and care measures in Wisconsin. METHODS: We used electronic health record data from 25 health systems submitting to the Wisconsin Collaborative for Healthcare Quality to identify disparities in measures including vaccinations, screenings, risk factors for chronic disease, and chronic disease management. RESULTS: American Indian/Alaska Native and Black populations experienced substantial disparities across multiple measures. Asian/Pacific Islander, Hispanic/Latino and White populations experienced substantial disparities for two measures each. DISCUSSION: Reducing health disparities is a statewide imperative. Root causes of health disparities such as systemic racism and socioeconomic factors should be addressed for groups experiencing multiple disparities, with focused efforts on selected measures when indicated.

Engaging communities can increase the speed of translating health and health equity research into practice. Effective engagement requires a shared understanding of the health of a community. This can be challenging without timely and accurate local health data, or ways to provide that data, that are directly applicable to improving community health outcomes. The University of Wisconsin Institute for Clinical and Translational Research formed the Neighborhood Health Partnerships Program (NHP) to overcome this challenge, making sub-county health data available to researchers and community stakeholders while incorporating community voice into data delivery processes. The NHP team used a human-centered design approach to facilitate community engagement. Through co-design, the team created NHP reports and data-to-action tools to maximize accessibility and utility for a diverse set of community stakeholders. Early indicators show that the final co-designed NHP reports and data-to-action tools will be immediately useful in promoting community–academic partnerships and in planning, implementing, and evaluating research and other initiatives in communities. The NHP program demonstrates that an effective co-design strategy can lead to increased usability and adoption of Clinical and Translational Science Award resources, enabling a shared understanding of community health and ultimately leading to the successful translation of research into practice.

Drivers with neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs), such as autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are at increased risk of experiencing driving difficulties. An important aspect of driving safety and skill involves hazard detection. This functional magnetic resonance imaging study examined the neural responses associated with driving hazard detection in drivers with ASD, ADHD, and typically developing (TD) drivers. Forty participants (12 ASD, 15 ADHD, 13 TD) ages 16-30 years completed a driving simulator task in which they encountered social and nonsocial hazards; reaction time (RT) for responding to hazards was measured. Participants then completed a similar hazard detection task in the MRI scanner so that neural response to hazards could be measured. Activation of regions of interest considered part of the executive function (EF) and theory of mind (ToM) networks were examined and related to driving simulator behavior. Results showed that stronger activation of the EF network during social hazard processing, including the bilateral dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and posterior parietal cortex, was associated with faster RT to social hazards among drivers with ADHD, but not among drivers with ASD. This provides the first evidence of a relationship between EF network brain activation and driving skills in ADHD and suggests that alterations in this network may underlie driving behavior. In comparison, the current study did not observe a relationship between ToM network activation and RT to social hazards in any group. This study lays the groundwork for relating neural activation to driving behavior among individuals with NDDs.

Background and aims: An inverse relationship between lipid levels and atrial fibrillation (AF) has been suggested, but whether the association is upheld for all age groups remains unclear. The aim of the study was to examine associations between lipid levels and AF by age groups in a nationwide study in Poland. Methods: Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to estimate prevalence ratios (PRs) for AF by lipid levels. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglycerides (TG), total cholesterol (TC), non-HDL-C and LDL-C/HDL-C ratios were grouped into quartiles. Results: Of the 13,724 participants, 5.2% (n = 708) had AF. People with AF were older with more comorbidities, but lower lipid levels (all p < 0.05). The prevalence of AF was inversely associated with LDL-C (Adjusted PR (95% Confidence Interval) highest versus lowest quartile: 0.60 (0.48, 0.75)), TC (0.61 (0.49, 0.75)) and non-HDL-C (0.63 (0.51, 0.78)). The prevalence of AF was inversely associated with HDL-C (0.58 (0.46, 0.74)), but this was not statistically significant for people aged 75 years and older. For the LDL-C/HDL-C ratio, the prevalence of AF was only inversely associated with higher levels for people aged 75 years and older (0.75 (0.61, 0.94)). There was no statistically significant difference in prevalence of AF by TG levels. Conclusions: The results suggest an inverse relationship between lipid levels and AF. The inverse association between higher HDL-C and AF was only significant for people aged

Background Little is known about the preferred treatment strategies of chiropractors in managing low back pain patients with prior lumbar fusions. There are several case reports which describe chiropractic care following surgical intervention, but there are no cohort or experimental studies published. Therefore, we sought to examine self-reported management approaches and practice patterns related to the management of patients with prior surgical lumbar fusion, among United States Veterans Affairs (VA) chiropractors. Methods An electronic survey was administered nationwide to all chiropractors providing clinical care within VA. Questions were informed by a prior survey and piloted on a sample of chiropractors external to VA. Statistical analysis included respondent background information, and quantitative analysis of chiropractic referral patterns and practices. This survey collect information on 1) provider demographics, 2) VA referral patterns, and 3) attitudes, beliefs, practices and interventions utilized by VA chiropractors to manage patients with a history of surgical lumbar fusion. Results The survey response rate was 46.3% (62/134). The respondents were broadly representative of VA chiropractic providers in age, gender, and years in practice. The majority of respondents (90.3%) reported seeing at least 1 post-fusion patient in the past month. The most common therapeutic approaches utilized by VA chiropractors were healthy lifestyle advice (94.9%), pain education (89.8%), exercise prescription (88.1%), stretching (66.1%) and soft tissue manual therapies (62.7%). A relatively smaller proportion described always or frequently incorporating lumbar (16.9%), thoracic (57.6%) or pelvic (39.0%) spinal manipulation. Conclusion This survey provides preliminary data on VA chiropractic services in the management of patients with prior lumbar fusion. These patients are often seen by VA chiropractors, and our findings support the need for further study to advance understanding of interventions utilized by chiropractors in this patient population.

INTRODUCTION: There are no population-level estimates in the United States for achievement of blood pressure goals in patients with diabetes and hypertension by obesity weight class. AIM: We sought to examine the relationship between the extent of obesity and the achievement of guideline-recommended blood pressure goals and other quality of care metrics among patients with diabetes. METHODS: We conducted an observational population-based cohort study of electronic health data of three large health systems from 2010–2012 in rural, urban and suburban settings of 51,229 adults with diabetes. Outcomes were achievement of diabetes quality of care metrics: blood pressure, A1c, and LDL control, and A1c and LDL testing. Two blood pressure goals were examined given the recommendation for adults with diabetes of 130/80 mmHg from JNC7 and the recommendation of 140/90 mmHg from JNC8 in 2014. RESULTS: Patients in obesity classes I, II, and III with diagnosed hypertension were less likely to achieve blood pressure control at both the 140/90 mmHg and 130/80 mmHg control levels. The patients from obesity class III had the lowest likelihood of achieving control at the 130/80 mmHg goal, and control was markedly worse for the 130/80 mmHg threshold in all weight classes. There were minimal to no differences by weight class in LDL and A1c control and LDL and A1c testing. CONCLUSIONS: Although the cardiovascular risk for patients with obesity and diabetes is greater than for non-obese patients with diabetes, we found that patients with obesity are even further behind in achieving blood pressure control.

Recent years have witnessed the proliferation of neuroimaging studies of neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs), particularly of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and Tourette's syndrome (TS). Neuroimaging offers immense potential in understanding the biology of these disorders, and how it relates to clinical symptoms. Neuroimaging techniques, in the long run, may help identify neurobiological markers to assist clinical diagnosis and treatment. However, methodological challenges have affected the progress of clinical neuroimaging. This paper reviews the methodological challenges involved in imaging children with NDDs. Specific topics include correcting for head motion, normalization using pediatric brain templates, accounting for psychotropic medication use, delineating complex developmental trajectories, and overcoming smaller sample sizes. The potential of neuroimaging-based biomarkers and the utility of implementing neuroimaging in a clinical setting are also discussed. Data-sharing approaches, technological advances, and an increase in the number of longitudinal, prospective studies are recommended as future directions. Significant advances have been made already, and future decades will continue to see innovative progress in neuroimaging research endeavors of NDDs.

Objective Recent investigations have found specific relationships between subscales of the Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS) and the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Functioning (BRIEF) among individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Aim: Examine whether Social-Executive relationships differ among individuals with ASD versus comorbid autism and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ASD + ADHD). Method Parent ratings on the SRS and BRIEF were obtained from the ABIDE-II database. Final sample: 25 ASD, 37 ASD + ADHD (5–12 years). T-tests examined group differences in BRIEF and SRS T-scores. Hierarchical multiple regressions examined the effect of BRIEF Index T-scores (Metacognition, MI; Behavioral Regulation, BRI) on SRS total and subscale T-scores, as well as the potential moderating effect of comorbid ADHD diagnosis. Results T-tests revealed that the ASD + ADHD group had higher severity T-scores on the BRIEF MI (T = 3.70, p Conclusions Overall, similar profile of social-executive relationships were observed among participants with ASD and ASD + ADHD. ADHD diagnosis was associated with better understanding of social situations and ability to interpret social cues appropriately. There is some indication that ADHD diagnosis may be associated with a stronger relationship between behavior regulation and social motivation. Future work should replicate these findings with a larger sample size.

Despite intact decoding ability, deficits in reading comprehension are relatively common in children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). However, few neuroimaging studies have tested the neural bases of this specific profile of reading deficit in ASD. This fMRI study examined activation and synchronization of the brain's reading network in children with ASD with specific reading comprehension deficits during a word similarities task. Thirteen typically developing children and 18 children with ASD performed the task in the MRI scanner. No statistically significant group differences in functional activation were observed; however, children with ASD showed decreased functional connectivity between the left inferior frontal gyrus (LIFG) and the left inferior occipital gyrus (LIOG). In addition, reading comprehension ability significantly positively predicted functional connectivity between the LIFG and left thalamus (LTHAL) among all subjects. The results of this study provide evidence for altered recruitment of reading-related neural resources in ASD children and suggest specific weaknesses in top-down modulation of semantic processing.

There is growing evidence of altered connectivity in autism spectrum disorders (ASD) between the cerebellum and cortex. Three intrinsic connectivity networks (ICNs) are especially important to cognitive processing in ASD: the default mode network (DMN), executive control network (ECN), and salience networks (SNs). The goal of this study was to compare resting-state functional connectivity between the cerebellum and the DMN, ECN, and SN in ASD and typically developing children (n = 74, ages 7–12 years). Children with ASD showed stronger connectivity between the ventral DMN and left cerebellar lobules I–IV. No meaningful relationships were observed between ICN-cerebellar functional connectivity and ASD symptoms. These results suggest that the cerebellum contributes to altered network connectivity in ASD.

The 11-year solar cycle forcing is recognised as an important atmospheric forcing; however, there remain uncertainties in characterising the effects of solar variability on the atmosphere from observations and models. Here we present the first detailed assessment of the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle in the UM-UKCA (Unified Model coupled to the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol model) chemistry–climate model (CCM) using a three-member ensemble over the recent past (1966–2010). Comparison of the model simulations is made with satellite observations and reanalysis datasets. The UM-UKCA model produces a statistically significant response to the 11-year solar cycle in stratospheric temperatures, ozone and zonal winds. However, there are also differences in magnitude, spatial structure and timing of the signals compared to observational and reanalysis estimates. This could be due to deficiencies in the model performance, and so we include a critical discussion of the model limitations, and/or uncertainties in the current observational estimates of the solar cycle signals. Importantly, in contrast to many previous studies of the solar cycle impacts, we pay particular attention to the role of the chosen analysis method in UM-UKCA by comparing the model composite and a multiple linear regression (MLR) results. We show that the stratospheric solar responses diagnosed using both techniques largely agree with each other within the associated uncertainties; however, the results show that apparently different signals can be identified by the methods in the troposphere and in the tropical lower stratosphere. Lastly, we examine how internal atmospheric variability affects the detection of the 11-year solar responses in the model by comparing the results diagnosed from the three individual ensemble members (as opposed to those diagnosed from the full ensemble). We show overall agreement between the responses diagnosed for the ensemble members in the tropical and mid-latitude mid-stratosphere to lower mesosphere but larger apparent differences at Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes during the dynamically active season. Our UM-UKCA results suggest the need for long data sets for confident detection of solar cycle impacts in the atmosphere, as well as for more research on possible interdependence of the solar cycle forcing with other atmospheric forcings and processes (e.g. Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, QBO; El Niño–Southern Oscillation, ENSO).

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Transportation may be a barrier for individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). More individuals with ASD utilize public transportation compared to typically developing (TD) individuals. This study seeks to elucidate the transportation needs of individuals with ASD in the Southeast. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Sixty-one licensed drivers with a diagnosis of ASD (n = 21), Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD; n = 19), or no diagnosis (TD; n = 21) were recruited and were matched across diagnosis groups by age (16-30 years old), gender, and IQ. Participants completed an adapted version of the Barriers to Care Scale and a survey assessing transportation preferences and quality of life. Means and frequencies were obtained. Chi-square analyses were conducted to estimate associations between diagnosis and transportation preferences. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Nearly all of the sample had access to a car (98.4%). Yet, only 71.4% of drivers ASD preferred to use their own car compared to 89.5% and 90.5% of the ADHD and TD groups respectively. The use of public transportation (6.6%) and ride-hailing services (18%) for general transportation needs was very low across the groups. There was a significant association between group type and the reliance on others for transportation (χ2(2,61) = 9.9, p < .01). Only 21.1% of those with ADHD relying on others for transportation needs, compared to 61.9% of TD and 66.7% of individuals with ASD. 23.8% of ASD drivers, 10.5% of ADHD drivers, and 9.5% of TD drivers believe transportation proved as an obstacle. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: The proportion of ASD drivers who believed transportation to be a barrier appeared slightly higher than other groups. Public transportation use may be low due to lower accessibility to such services in the Southeast. The travel patterns of individuals with ASD and ADHD merits further exploration.

>We analyse simulations performed for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion caused by anthropogenic stratospheric chlorine and bromine. We consider a total of 155 simulations from 20 models, including a range of sensitivity studies which examine the impact of climate change on ozone recovery. For the control simulations (unconstrained by nudging towards analysed meteorology) there is a large spread (±20 DU in the global average) in the predictions of the absolute ozone column. Therefore, the model results need to be adjusted for biases against historical data. Also, the interannual variability in the model results need to be smoothed in order to provide a reasonably narrow estimate of the range of ozone return dates. Consistent with previous studies, but here for a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 6.0, these new CCMI simulations project that global total column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2049 (with a 1σ uncertainty of 2043–2055). At Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values in 2045 (2039–2050), and at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in 2032 (2020–2044). In the polar regions, the return dates are 2060 (2055–2066) in the Antarctic in October and 2034 (2025–2043) in the Arctic in March. The earlier return dates in the Northern Hemisphere reflect the larger sensitivity to dynamical changes. Our estimates of return dates are later than those presented in the 2014 Ozone Assessment by approximately 5–17 years, depending on the region, with the previous best estimates often falling outside of our uncertainty range. In the tropics only around half the models predict a return of ozone to 1980 values, around 2040, while the other half do not reach the 1980 value. All models show a negative trend in tropical total column ozone towards the end of the 21st century. The CCMI models generally agree in their simulation of the time evolution of stratospheric chlorine and bromine, which are the main drivers of ozone loss and recovery. However, there are a few outliers which show that the multi-model mean results for ozone recovery are not as tightly constrained as possible. Throughout the stratosphere the spread of ozone return dates to 1980 values between models tends to correlate with the spread of the return of inorganic chlorine to 1980 values. In the upper stratosphere, greenhouse gas-induced cooling speeds up the return by about 10–20 years. In the lower stratosphere, and for the column, there is a more direct link in the timing of the return dates of ozone and chlorine, especially for the large Antarctic depletion. Comparisons of total column ozone between the models is affected by different predictions of the evolution of tropospheric ozone within the same scenario, presumably due to differing treatment of tropospheric chemistry. Therefore, for many scenarios, clear conclusions can only be drawn for stratospheric ozone columns rather than the total column. As noted by previous studies, the timing of ozone recovery is affected by the evolution of N2O and CH4. However, quantifying the effect in the simulations analysed here is limited by the few realisations available for these experiments compared to internal model variability. The large increase in N2O given in RCP 6.0 extends the ozone return globally by ∼ 15 years relative to N2O fixed at 1960 abundances, mainly because it allows tropical column ozone to be depleted. The effect in extratropical latitudes is much smaller. The large increase in CH4 given in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to RCP 6.0 also lengthens ozone return by ∼ 15 years, again mainly through its impact in the tropics. Overall, our estimates of ozone return dates are uncertain due to both uncertainties in future scenarios, in particular those of greenhouse gases, and uncertainties in models. The scenario uncertainty is small in the short term but increases with time, and becomes large by the end of the century. There are still some model–model differences related to well-known processes which affect ozone recovery. Efforts need to continue to ensure that models used for assessment purposes accurately represent stratospheric chemistry and the prescribed scenarios of ozone-depleting substances, and only those models are used to calculate return dates. For future assessments of single forcing or combined effects of CO2, CH4, and N2O on the stratospheric column ozone return dates, this work suggests that it is more important to have multi-member (at least three) ensembles for each scenario from every established participating model, rather than a large number of individual models.