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We present an overview of results from 11 integrated assessment models (IAMs) that participated in the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-33) on the viability of large-scale deployment of bioenergy for achieving long-run climate goals. The study explores future bioenergy use across models under harmonized scenarios for future climate policies, availability of bioenergy technologies, and constraints on biomass supply. This paper provides a more transparent description of IAMs that span a broad range of assumptions regarding model structures, energy sectors, and bioenergy conversion chains. Without emission constraints, we find vastly different CO2 emission and bioenergy deployment patterns across models due to differences in competition with fossil fuels, the possibility to produce large-scale bio-liquids, and the flexibility of energy systems. Imposing increasingly stringent carbon budgets mostly increases bioenergy use. A diverse set of available bioenergy technology portfolios provides flexibility to allocate bioenergy to supply different final energy as well as remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by combining bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS). Sector and regional bioenergy allocation varies dramatically across models mainly due to bioenergy technology availability and costs, final energy patterns, and availability of alternative decarbonization options. Although much bioenergy is used in combination with CCS, BECCS is not necessarily the driver of bioenergy use. We find that the flexibility to use biomass feedstocks in different energy sub-sectors makes large-scale bioenergy deployment a robust strategy in mitigation scenarios that is surprisingly insensitive with respect to reduced technology availability. However, the achievability of stringent carbon budgets and associated carbon prices is sensitive. Constraints on biomass feedstock supply increase the carbon price less significantly than excluding BECCS because carbon removals are still realized and valued. Incremental sensitivity tests find that delayed readiness of bioenergy technologies until 2050 is more important than potentially higher investment costs.

This study presents a multi-model analysis of long-term climate policy of Japan, whose mid-century strategy is subject to an ongoing policy debate, focusing on the carbon dioxide emissions in the energy sector. The models demonstrate multiple future pathways of the low-carbon energy system in Japan. The median of marginal abatement cost is found to be around 1070 USD2010/tCO2 for a high GDP growth scenario and 870 USD2010/tCO2 for a medium GDP growth scenario. The residual emissions are dominated by the industry sector, suggesting a need to accelerate development of industrial mitigation options.

This article is part of the special issue “Assessing Large-scale Global Bioenergy Deployment for Managing Climate Change (EMF-33)” edited by Steven Rose, John Weyant, Nico Bauer, Shinichiro Fuminori, Petr Havlik, Alexander Popp, Detlef van Vuuren, and Marshall Wise.; International audience; We present an overview of results from 11 integrated assessment models (IAMs) that participated in the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-33) on the viability of large-scale deployment of bioenergy for achieving long-run climate goals. The study explores future bioenergy use across models under harmonized scenarios for future climate policies, availability of bioenergy technologies, and constraints on biomass supply. This paper provides a more transparent description of IAMs that span a broad range of assumptions regarding model structures, energy sectors, and bioenergy conversion chains. Without emission constraints, we find vastly different CO2 emission and bioenergy deployment patterns across models due to differences in competition with fossil fuels, the possibility to produce large-scale bio-liquids, and the flexibility of energy systems. Imposing increasingly stringent carbon budgets mostly increases bioenergy use. A diverse set of available bioenergy technology portfolios provides flexibility to allocate bioenergy to supply different final energy as well as remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by combining bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS). Sector and regional bioenergy allocation varies dramatically across models mainly due to bioenergy technology availability and costs, final energy patterns, and availability of alternative decarbonization options. Although much bioenergy is used in combination with CCS, BECCS is not necessarily the driver of bioenergy use. We find that the flexibility to use biomass feedstocks in different energy sub-sectors makes large-scale bioenergy deployment a robust strategy in mitigation scenarios that is surprisingly insensitive with respect to reduced technology availability. However, the achievability of stringent carbon budgets and associated carbon prices is sensitive. Constraints on biomass feedstock supply increase the carbon price less significantly than excluding BECCS because carbon removals are still realized and valued. Incremental sensitivity tests find that delayed readiness of bioenergy technologies until 2050 is more important than potentially higher investment costs.

Izumi Sato, Hirotsugu Kanda, Megumi Kanao-Kanda, Atsushi Kurosawa, Takayuki Kunisawa Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Asahikawa Medical University, Asahikawa, Hokkaido, Japan Abstract: We report a case of iatrogenic pneumothorax in which chest tube placement was avoided by continuous intraoperative evaluation with transthoracic ultrasonography. A 53-year-old man had undergone a subsegmentectomy. While attempting to place a central venous catheter in the right internal jugular vein after the induction of anesthesia, we identified gas absorption during the puncture and suspected a pneumothorax. Chest X-ray revealed an ~5-mm collapse of the right lung apex. Tension pneumothorax was a concern during surgery because of the long-term positive pressure ventilation, but we decided to start the operation without preventative chest tube placement. During the operation, we regularly observed the midclavicular line of the second intercostal space using ultrasound. The operation was completed uneventfully. In this case, we effectively utilized ultrasound and avoided preventive chest tube placement and the associated complications. Transthoracic ultrasonography could be performed easily and continuously during surgery and was effective for evaluating the progression of an intraoperative pneumothorax. Keywords: transthoracic ultrasonography, iatrogenic pneumothorax, central venous catheterization

Attribution of climate change to individual countries is a part of ongoing policy discussions, e.g., the Brazil proposal, and requires a quantifiable link between emissions and climate change. We present a constrained propagation of errors that tracks uncertainties from human activities to greenhouse gas emissions, to increasing abundances of greenhouse gases, to radiative forcing of climate, and finally to climate change, thus following the causal chain for greenhouse gases emitted by developed nations since national reporting began in 1990. Errors combine uncertainties in the forward modeling at each step with top-down constraints on the observed changes in greenhouse gases and temperatures. Global surface temperature increased by +0.11 °C in 2003 due to the developed nations' emissions of Kyoto greenhouse gases from 1990 to 2002. The uncertainty range, +0.08 °C to +0.14 °C (68% confidence), is large considering that the developed countries emissions are well known for this period and climate system modeling uncertainties are constrained by observations.

A new method for the quantitative determination of plasma corticoids is described. It comprises essentially solvent-partitioning extraction, Girard separation, and calculation of the experimentally-derived simultaneous equations. Corticosterone and cortisol can be estimated individually from a single sample in concentrations above 0.1 μg per 100 ml of plasma. The method is widely applicable for corticoid assay in biological materials.