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Crop-water simulation models are powerful tools to support efficient and sustainable agricultural water use and management globally. However, uptake of these tools beyond the research community in policy and industry has traditionally been constrained by the complexity and closed-source nature of model codes, which limit ability for models to be adapted and applied to address complex real-world agricultural water management challenges. In this talk, we present AquaPlan, an interactive web-based tool crop management tool that enables farmers, businesses, and governments to make more informed decisions about water management, irrigation investments, and climate risks. AquaPlan combines a state-of-the-art open-source crop-water model, AquaCrop-OSPy, with global weather and soil datasets to enable users to conduct rapid on-the-fly assessments of field and regional-scale crop yield and water demands anywhere in the world. The tools also integrates future climate projections from CMIP6 models, providing insights to support efforts to enhance long-term resilience of agriculture and food supply chains to climate change. In this talk, we will present a range of use cases of AquaPlan, highlight how these kinds of interactive tools can strengthen uptake of models developed by researchers in water management policy, practice, and business.

Knockdown and residual activity of 10 minimal risk natural products (MRNPs), one experimental formulation of nootkatone, and two bifenthrin labels were evaluated against host-seeking nymphal Ixodes scapularis Say using a novel micro-plot product screening system placed in a landscape setting similar to a wooded residential property. The MRNPs evaluated included Tick Stop, EcoPCO EC-X, Met52 EC, CedarCide PCO Choice, EcoEXEMPT IC2, EcoSMART Organic Insecticide, Essentria IC3, privately labeled products 1 and 2 (based on EcoEXEMPT IC2 and sold as a professional pest control application), and Tick Killz. Just the nootkatone and 4 of these 10 products tested (EcoPCO EC-X, Met52 EC, EcoEXEMPT IC2, and Essentria IC3) had statistically significant (P < 0.05) knockdown effects (killed ticks while active in the arenas) when compared to water-only controls, but only 2 of these, EcoPCO EC-X and nootkatone, displayed significant residual tick-killing activity after weathering naturally in the landscape for 2 wk prior to tick application/testing. Moreover, botanical oil-based products with the same active ingredients provided inconsistent results when tested multiple times across study years.

Background Avian and swine influenza viruses circulate worldwide and pose threats to both animal and human health. The design of global surveillance strategies is hindered by information gaps on the geospatial variation in virus emergence potential and existing surveillance efforts. Methods We developed a spatial framework to quantify the geographic variation in outbreak emergence potential based on indices of potential for animal-to-human and secondary human-to-human transmission. We then compared our resultant raster model of variation in emergence potential with the global distribution of recent surveillance efforts from 359105 reports of surveillance activities. Results Our framework identified regions of Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, Central America, and sub-Saharan Africa with high potential for influenza virus spillover. In the last 15 years, however, we found that 78.43% and 49.01% of high-risk areas lacked evidence of influenza virus surveillance in swine and domestic poultry, respectively. Conclusions Our work highlights priority areas where improved surveillance and outbreak mitigation could enhance pandemic preparedness strategies.

Swine influenza presents a substantial disease burden for pig populations worldwide and poses a potential pandemic threat to humans. There is considerable diversity in both H1 and H3 influenza viruses circulating in swine due to the frequent introductions of viruses from humans and birds coupled with geographic segregation of global swine populations. Much of this diversity is characterized genetically but the antigenic diversity of these viruses is poorly understood. Critically, the antigenic diversity shapes the risk profile of swine influenza viruses in terms of their epizootic and pandemic potential. Here, using the most comprehensive set of swine influenza virus antigenic data compiled to date, we quantify the antigenic diversity of swine influenza viruses on a multi-continental scale. The substantial antigenic diversity of recently circulating viruses in different parts of the world adds complexity to the risk profiles for the movement of swine and the potential for swine-derived infections in humans. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.12217.001, eLife digest Influenza viruses, commonly called flu, infect millions of people and animals every year and occasionally causes pandemics in humans. The immune system can neutralise flu viruses by recognising the proteins on the virus surface, generically referred to as antigens. These antigens change as flu viruses evolve to escape detection by the immune system. These changes tend to be relatively small such that exposure to one flu virus generates immunity that is still effective against other related flu viruses. However, over time, the accumulation of these small changes can result in larger differences such that prior infections no longer provide protection against the new virus. Influenza A viruses infect a wide variety of birds and mammals. Viruses can also transmit from one species to another, which may result in the introduction of viruses with antigens that are new to the recipient species and which have the potential to cause substantial outbreaks. Pig flu viruses have long been considered to be a potential risk for human pandemic viruses and were the source of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus. Importantly, humans often transmit flu viruses to pigs. Understanding the dynamics and consequences of this two-way transmission is important for designing effective strategies to detect and respond to new strains of flu. Influenza A viruses of the H1 and H3 subtypes circulate widely in pigs. However, it was poorly understood how closely related swine and human viruses circulating in different regions were to one another and how much the antigens varied between the different viruses. Lewis, Russell et al. have now analysed the antigenic variation of hundreds of H1 and H3 viruses from pigs on multiple continents. The antigenic diversity of recent swine flu viruses resembles the diversity of H1 and H3 viruses observed in humans over the last 40 years. A key factor driving the diversity of the H1 and H3 viruses in pigs is the frequent introduction of human viruses to pigs. In contrast, only one flu virus from a bird had contributed to the observed antigenic diversity in pigs in a substantial way. Once in pigs, human-derived flu viruses continue to evolve their antigens. This results in a tremendous diversity of flu viruses that can be transmitted to other pigs and also to humans. These flu viruses could pose a serious risk to public health because they are no longer similar to the current human flu strains. These findings have important implications not only for developing flu vaccines for pigs but also for informing the development of more-effective surveillance and disease-control strategies to prevent the spread of new flu variants. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.12217.002

Temperature and humidity have been identified as significant determinants of suitable blacklegged tick Ixodes scapularis habitat. The temperature–vegetation dryness index TVDI uses remotely sensed observations of both temperature and vegetation cover to characterize moisture status on the ground. The TVDI has previously been applied to large studies of conservation, drought monitoring, and disease forecasting. In this study, we applied the TDVI model in an effort to characterize land surface conditions influencing tick habitat and human health risk in the southern New England region of the USA. Findings derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer MODIS land surface temperature LST and normalized difference vegetation index NDVI data products in TDVI modelling and site-specific validations suggested that remotely sensed surface moisture conditions is one environmental parameter that could be useful in large-scale tick habitat monitoring.

Background: Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most commonly reported vector-borne disease in north temperate regions worldwide, affecting an estimated 300,000 people annually in the United States alone. The incidence of LB is correlated with human exposure to its vector, the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis). To date, attempts to model tick encounter risk based on environmental parameters have been equivocal. Previous studies have not considered (1) the differences between relative humidity (RH) in leaf litter and at weather stations, (2) the RH threshold that affects nymphal blacklegged tick survival, and (3) the time required below the threshold to induce mortality. We clarify the association between environmental moisture and tick survival by presenting a significant relationship between the total number of tick adverse moisture events (TAMEs - calculated as microclimatic periods below a RH threshold) and tick abundance each year. Methods: We used a 14-year continuous statewide tick surveillance database and corresponding weather data from Rhode Island (RI), USA, to assess the effects of TAMEs on nymphal populations of I. scapularis. These TAMEs were defined as extended periods of time (>8 h below 82% RH in leaf litter). We fit a sigmoid curve comparing weather station data to those collected by loggers placed in tick habitats to estimate RH experienced by nymphal ticks, and compiled the number of historical TAMEs during the 14-year record. Results: The total number of TAMEs in June of each year was negatively related to total seasonal nymphal tick densities, suggesting that sub-threshold humidity episodes >8 h in duration naturally lowered nymphal blacklegged tick abundance. Furthermore, TAMEs were positively related to the ratio of tick abundance early in the season when compared to late season, suggesting that lower than average tick abundance for a given year resulted from tick mortality and not from other factors. Conclusions: Our results clarify the mechanism by which environmental moisture affects blacklegged tick populations, and offers the possibility to more accurately predict tick abundance and human LB incidence. We describe a method to forecast LB risk in endemic regions and identify the predictive role of microclimatic moisture conditions on tick encounter risk.