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This paper investigates whether the impact of trade shocks on employment and wages persists across generations. Using survey data with retrospective information on parental employment and instrumental variables, we study the effect of increased Chinese import competition in Brazilian industries on individuals with differently exposed fathers. Results show that several years after the shock, children of more exposed fathers have lower education and earnings, lower chances of formal jobs, and are more likely to rely on social assistance. These effects are substantially stronger for children from disadvantaged background, indicating that the shock had a negative impact on intergenerational mobility., Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales

The rapid rise of Chinese exports over the past few decades has raised concerns about manufacturing jobs and internal labor market outcomes in high-income countries. I analyze the effect of rising Chinese import competition on Finnish regional manufacturing employment between 1995 and 2007. The analysis exploits the cross-regional variation in initial industry structures and uses Chinese imports to other high-income countries as an instrument for Chinese imports to Finland. I find that rising Chinese import competition has a negative effect on the share of manufacturing employment in Finnish sub-regions.

We use large-scale panel data from linked decadal censuses in England and Wales to study the responses of both individuals and their partners to rising Chinese import competition in the 2000s. We test whether partners provide insurance against lost household earnings by increasing labour supply. We find that both own and partner responses to the shock vary significantly by gender. Men in households exposed to import competition respond by increasing labour force participation at older ages, and by moving into solo self-employment. This is true both in response to their own trade exposure, and as an 'added worker effect' when their partner is exposed to the shock. By contrast, we find no such response for women, who do not increase labour supply if their male partners were initially employed in exposed industries. In general, self-employment appears to act as an employment buffer for men but not women. The impacts of import competition on partnering and family dissolution also differ according to the gender of those affected: for women below 45, but not men, exposure to the trade shock reduces the likelihood of divorce and of living with a new partner. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of investigating household responses, and the self-employment margin, to fully understand the effects of trade shocks.

[eng] Whenever import tariffs are lowered and national firms face a growing competition, productivity must be enhanced in order to survive. Thanks to the ESEE survey where Spanish manufacturing firms provide information about their financial situation, the effect of an increase in import competition may be analysed. Using different econometric methods, I conclude that Spanish family firms, and especially those who are initially less productive, react to it by increasing greatly their labour productivity. [eus] Inportazioen muga-zergak murrizten direnean eta enpresa nazionalek gero eta lehia handiagoa dutenean, produktibitatea handitu egin behar da bizirik iraun ahal izateko. Espainiako manufaktura-enpresek beren finantza-egoerari buruzko informazioa ematen duten ESEE inkestari esker, inportazioen lehia handitzearen eragina azter daiteke. Metodo ekonometriko desberdinak erabiliz, ondorioztatzen dut Espainiako familia-enpresek, eta batez ere hasieran hain produktiboak ez direnek, beren lan-produktibitatea neurri handi batean handituz erantzuten dutela. [spa] Cuando se reducen los aranceles de importación y las empresas nacionales se enfrentan a una competencia creciente, la productividad debe ser aumentada para poder sobrevivir. Gracias a la encuesta ESEE, en la que las empresas manufactureras españolas proporcionan información sobre su situación financiera, se puede analizar el efecto de un aumento de la competencia de las importaciones. Utilizando diferentes métodos econométricos, concluyo que las empresas familiares españolas, y especialmente las que son inicialmente menos productivas, reaccionan aumentando en gran medida su productividad laboral.

The new knowledge intensive direction of technological change is magnified at the firm level by the limited exhaustibility of knowledge. This limited exhaustibility triggers cumulability and extensibility for which the larger the firm, the lower the knowledge generation costs from using a larger stock of existing knowledge, and the lower the knowledge exploitation costs related to a larger output based on use of the same piece of knowledge. The consequences for the direction of technological change are twofold. First, the larger the firm size, the larger the share of intangible capital in total capital. Second, the output elasticity of intangible capital increases with the size of the firm. We test our hypotheses on data on US listed companies over the period 1977–2016. The results of ordinary least squares, two-stage least squares and production function estimations confirm our theoretical expectations.

This paper adopts five dimensions and 15 indexes of green development, people’s life, innovation ability, economic vitality and coordinated development to establish an evaluation system of high-quality economic development. It uses principal component analysis to measure the economic high-quality development of 233 prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2016, and empirically studies the impact of import sophistication on China’s high-quality economic development. The results show that the increase in the sophistication of imported technology can significantly promote the high-quality development of the regional economy, and this effect is applicable to both imported intermediate and final products. In regions with higher and lower levels of economic development, eastern areas, and regions with high-quality development above 90% quantiles, the increase in imported technology content can significantly drive the high-quality development of the local economy. However, it has a great negative impact on the areas with a high-quality development index below 10% quantile. The robustness and endogeneity check support the above viewpoint. Further mechanism analysis shows that the final product import competition and intermediate product import spillover play a mediating role in the process of import sophistication affecting the high-quality economic development. The conclusion of this paper has important theoretical value and practical significance for the use of import trade to achieve high-quality economic development.

The increased range and quality of China's exports is a major ongoing development in the international economy with potentially far-reaching effects. In this paper, on top of the direct effects of increased imports from China studied in previous research, we also measure the indirect labour market effects stemming from increased export competition in third markets. Our findings, based on matched employer-employee data of Portugal covering the 1991-2008 period, indicate that workers' earnings and employment are significantly negatively affected by China's competition, but only through the indirect 'market-stealing' channel. In contrast to evidence for other countries, the direct effects of Chinese import competition are mostly non-significant. The results are robust to a number of checks and also highlight particular groups more affected by indirect competition, including women, older and less educated workers, and workers in domestic firms.

This paper assesses the effect of import competition on the labour market and health outcomes of US workers. We first show that import shocks affect employment and income, but only in areas where jobs are more intense in routine tasks. Exploiting over 40 million individual observations on health and mortality, we find that import had a detrimental effect on physical and mental health that is concentrated in those areas and exhibits strong persistence. It decreased healthcare utilisation and increased hospitalisation for a large set of conditions, more difficult to treat. The mortality hazard of workers in manufacturing increased by up to 6% per billion-dollar import increase.

This paper analyses the relationship between markups and international trade at the firm level using a large sample of French manufacturing firms for the period 1995–2007. In particular, the paper investigates the effect of increasing import competition from China on firms' price–cost margins and the way in which exporting interacts with this effect. The results show robust evidence that firms in more direct competition with Chinese imports decrease their markups. However, firms that become exporters experience a smaller reduction in their price–cost margins. Consistent with these findings, the results also show that firms facing tougher competition from China are more likely to start exporting to avoid such competitive pressures.

Import competition from low-wage countries can worsen labor market conditions in high-income countries and undermine the sustainability of free international trade. We examine the effect of increasing manufacturing imports from China on manufacturing employment and wage earnings distribution in Sweden by employing a two-stage least squares estimation method. The empirical results indicate that, except for the transportation sector, the effect of increasing import exposure to China on manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment growth is statistically insignificant. Regarding earnings distribution, we find that the earnings growth of low-wage workers in the manufacturing sector is not significantly influenced by an increase in Chinese imports. However, wage earners at the median level or above are positively impacted by trade shocks from China. These findings have implications for seeking policy alternatives that can enhance the sustainability of the international trade order.

We evaluate the duration of the China trade shock and its impact on a wide range of outcomes over the period 2000 to 2019. The shock plateaued in 2010, enabling analysis of its effects for nearly a decade past its culmination. Adverse impacts of import competition on manufacturing employment, overall employment-population ratios, and income per capita in more trade-exposed U.S. commuting zones are present out to 2019. Over the full study period, greater import competition implies a reduction in the manufacturing employment-population ratio of 1.54 percentage points, which is 55% of the observed change in the value, and the absorption of 86% of this net job loss via a corresponding decrease in the overall employment rate. Reductions in population headcounts, which indicate net out-migration, register only for foreign-born workers and the native-born 25-39 years old, implying that exit from work is a primary means of adjustment to trade-induced contractions in labor demand. More negatively affected regions see modest increases in the uptake of government transfers, but these transfers primarily take the form of Social Security and Medicare benefits. Adverse outcomes are more acute in regions that initially had fewer college-educated workers and were more industrially specialized. Impacts are qualitatively—but not quantitatively—similar to those caused by the decline of employment in coal production since the 1980s, indicating that the China trade shock holds lessons for other episodes of localized job loss. Import competition from China induced changes in income per capita across local labor markets that are much larger than the spatial heterogeneity of income effects predicted by standard quantitative trade models. Even using higher-end estimates of the consumer benefits of rising trade with China, a substantial fraction of commuting zones appears to have suffered absolute declines in average real incomes.

With China's 2001 WTO accession, trade costs between the US and China fell sharply, but the transport costs of Chinese imports within the US remained sizable. We argue that domestic transport costs shield local labor markets from globalization. Using a shift-share design for industry-level Chinese imports across 42 ports of entry, we show that US job losses from competing imports occurred near the ports where they arrived. Once accounting for domestic transport costs, import competition affects coastal areas more than inland areas; shows larger impacts in housing markets and indirectly affected jobs; and explains voting, mortality and family formation

The import competition literature suggests that Chinese industrial policies and technological trends have altered the nature of competition with China so that it does not take place on a level playing field anymore. Empirical evidence about firms' reactions in developed economies to competition with China is inconclusive, however. This paper studies how small, highly internationalised and specialised firms react to the growing penetration of Chinese exporters on their markets. We use a sample of Austrian manufacturing companies to explore the impact of increasing competition on changes in corporate strategy. We propose a novel indicator capturing import competition that highly internationalised companies face. We examine how firms adapt their search strategies related to technological capabilities and markets. While the exposure to Chinese competition has been on average relatively low, its impact on diversification choices has been significant. Companies exposed to growing Chinese competition are more likely to diversify their geographic markets, but less likely to diversify their product portfolio or broaden their competence base. These patterns are also reflected by changes in trade data.

A growing body of research has contributed to understanding the labour market and political effects of globalization. This article explores an overlooked feature of trade-induced adjustments in the labour market: the institutional aspect. We take advantage of the Italian collectively bargained minimum wage system, which is based on a two-tier structure, whereby the first tier entails setting minimum wages at the national contract level. Using an instrumental variable strategy and exploiting variations in contract-level exposure to trade, we find for the 1995–2003 period that, on average, the surge in imports decreased contractual minimum wages by 1.5%. This impact increases in the share of unskilled workers employed in the contract. This negative institutional effect contrasts with a non-significant effect of trade on total wages, with the latter becoming positive and large only for highly skilled workers.

Does higher import competition increase formalization and aggregate productivity? Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation from Chinese imports, we provide empirical causal evidence that higher imports increases the share of formal manufacturing enterprise employment in India. This formal share increase is both due to the rise in formal-enterprise employment driven by the high productivity firms, and a fall in informal-enterprise employment. The labor reallocation is enabled by the formal firms' hiring of contract workers, who do not carry stringent string costs. Overall, Chinese import competition increased formal sector employment share by 3.7 percentage points, and aggregate labor productivity by 2.87%, between 2000-2001 and 2005-2006.

This paper studies the impact of import competition from China on labor outcomes in the Peruvian manufacturing sector in 2001–2010. Using data from the Peruvian Household Survey, we use a two-step procedure to evaluate the impact of the surge in imports from China on the likelihood of having an informal job and on wages in both the formal and informal sectors. On the first step, the results suggest that greater import competition increased—albeit weakly—the likelihood of having an informal job for workers with elementary education. On the second step, we find that the surge in imports from China was detrimental to wages of the least educated individuals with informal jobs—with no education and elementary education—, although we also find that this result is mostly driven by the presence of self-employed among informal workers. We also observe a wage increase among workers with formal jobs and elementary and high school education. These results are robust to the inclusion of different exclusion restrictions and even after accounting for industry-level growth which was strong during the period studied.

Summary of Banco de España Working Paper no. 2115

Manufacturers in India are increasingly selling services—a phenomenon referred to as servitization. Both the proportion of manufacturers selling services and the share of services in total revenue of manufacturers increased threefold between 1994 and 2013. More productive manufacturers and those more exposed to import competition are more likely to sell services and to obtain a higher share of their revenue from services. A 10 percent increase in servitization is associated with 2.6 percent increase in manufacturing revenue. However, servitizing firms suffer a greater contraction in manufacturing revenue with increased import competition. This evidence suggests that servitization is not a successful defensive strategy to maintain manufacturing sales in the face of import competition, and it is more likely to be an exit strategy to flee import competition. Corroborative results indicate that past services sales are positively associated with the introduction of new services products and eventually a switch out of manufacturing and into services as the primary activity. Thus, servitization appears to be an aspect of “premature deindustrialization” in India, driven by the inability of manufacturers to cope with import competition, rather than structural transformation associated with a maturing manufacturing sector.

We study the effects of import competition on industry locations patterns in a small open economy with two regions. Domestic productivity growth converges to the international rate through firm-level investment in process innovation. With firms locating production and innovation in their lowest cost locations, the concentration of industry in the larger region is linked with firm-level innovation through an import competition effect that is increasing in the market share of imported goods and the productivity differential of domestic firms with the rest of the world. We show that increased import competition, through either a larger number of imported goods or a faster international rate of productivity growth, leads to greater industry concentration by reducing domestic market entry and decreasing the relative productivity of domestic firms. We also consider the implications of improved regional and international economic integration.

A key economic issue in Canada is the declining business research and develop-ment and slowdown in the total factor productivity (TFP) growth in manufacturing since the early 2000s. To deepen our understanding of this phenomenon, we focus on the increasing Chinese import share in the total domestic absorption in Cana-dian manufacturing since the early 2000s, which appears to be driven by positive supply shocks within Chinese manufacturing. Based on firm-level data in Canadian manufacturing, we find that rising Chinese import competition led to declines in R&D expenditure and TFP growth within firms but reallocated employment to-wards more productive firms and induced less productive firms to exit. The negative within-effects were pronounced for firms that were initially smaller, less profitable, and less productive. At the aggregate level, the positive reallocation effects on TFP more than offset the negative within-effect. We estimate that, had there been no increase in Chinese import competition between 2005 and 2010, TFP in Canadian manufacturing would have declined by 1.26 per cent per year instead of the actual 1.09 per cent per year over this period.

In this paper, we investigate how globalization is reflected in asset prices. We use shipping costs to measure firms' exposure to globalization. Firms in low shipping cost industries carry a 7% risk premium, suggesting that their cash flows covary negatively with investors' marginal utility. We find that the premium emanates from the risk of displacement of least efficient firms triggered by import competition. These findings suggest that foreign productivity shocks are associated with times when consumption is dear for investors. We discuss conditions under which a standard model of trade with asset prices can rationalize this puzzle.

International audience; This paper analyzes how Egyptian manufacturing plants respond to changes in trade tariffs using firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey. Using Levinsohn and Petrin (Rev Econ Stud 70(2):317-341, 2003) methodology to calculate the total factor productivity for the Egyptian firms in the sample, the results stand in line with the heterogeneous-firm models of international trade predicting that fall in trade costs leads to a decrease in the market shares of domestic firms. The decrease of market share of the Egyptian manufacturing firms after trade reforms in 2004 reflects that the market became less concentrated after trade openness.

This paper quantifies how a small and open economy adapts and thereby shapes to what extent it is exposed to competition from China on the world market. Starting from granular firm-commodity-destination-level sales data for the universe of Danish manufacturing firms we construct counterfactual competition exposure, measured as sales weighted Chinese import shares in the home and all export markets while holding the industry composition, the product as well as the destination mix constant. Without adaptation the competition shock after China’s WTO accession would have been more than one and a half times of what has been readily observable. Besides broad industry-level structural change, intra-industry reallocations and intra-firm adjustments through product and destination switching are important adaptation channels. Furthermore, we find some evidence for dynamic quality differentiation as a relevant adaptation margin.

This paper studies the economic and political effects of a large trade shock in agriculture - the grain invasion from the Americas - in Prussia during the first globalisation (1871-1913). We show that this shock accelerated the structural change in the Prussian economy through migration of workers to booming cities. In contrast to studies using today's data, we do not observe declining per capita income and political polarisation in counties affected by foreign competition. Our results suggest that the negative and persistent effects of trade shocks we see today are not a universal feature of globalisation, but depend on labour mobility. For our analysis, we digitise data from Prussian industrial and agricultural censuses on the county level and combine it with national trade data at the product level. We exploit the cross-regional variation in cultivated crops within Prussia and instrument with Italian trade data to isolate exogenous variation.

This paper examines the link between trade-induced changes in local labor market opportunities and English language fluency rates among low-skilled immigrants in the United States. Many of the production-based manufacturing jobs lost in recent years due to Chinese import competition did not require strong English-speaking skills while many of the jobs in expanding industries, mostly in the service sector, did. Consistent with responses to these changing labor market opportunities, we find that a $1,000 increase in import exposure per worker in a local area led to an increase in the share of low-skilled immigrants speaking English very well in that area by about half a percentage point. As evidence that at least part of this is a result of actual improvements in English language speaking abilities, we show that low-skilled immigrants in trade-impacted areas became especially likely to be enrolled in school compared to similarly low-skilled natives. However, while we find little support for selective domestic migration in response to trade shocks, we present evidence suggesting that new immigrants arriving from abroad choose where to settle based either on their English fluency or their ability to learn English. Regardless of whether low-skilled immigrants respond to trade shocks via actual improvements in English fluency or migration choices, our results suggest that immigrants help to equilibrate labor markets, an implication we find evidence for in the data.

This paper investigates the effects of trade liberalisation induced labour demand shocks on informal employment in China. We employ a local labour market approach to construct a regional measure of exposure to import tariffs by exploiting initial differences in industrial composition across prefectural cities and then link it with the employment status of individuals. Using three waves of household survey data between 1995 and 2007, our results show that workers from regions that experienced a larger tariff cut were more likely to be employed informally. Further results based on firm-level data reveal a consistent pattern; tariff reductions increased the share of informal workers within firms. Such effects are more salient among smaller and less productive firms. Our findings suggest an important margin of labour market adjustment in response to trade shocks in developing countries, i.e. employment adjustment along the formal-informal dimension.

Criticism of economic globalization and technological progress has gained support in Italy in the last two decades. However, due to the differentiated exposure of local labor markets to this process, electoral outcomes have varied considerably across the country. By observing the local impact of three global economic phenomena (flows of migrants, foreign competition in international trade, and diffusion of robots) alongside with the patterns of local electoral outcomes potentially associated with discontent, this study analyzes the economic forces driving the evolution of general elections in 2001, 2008, and 2013 in Italy. The analysis reveals that all these global factors had an impact on political outcomes associated with discontent, albeit in different ways and changing over time. All three factors are associated with increases in votes for far‐right parties in the period 2001–2008, but only robotization continues to have such an impact in the following period, while immigration is associated with an increase in votes for the Five‐Star Movement at the expense of far‐right parties. The results and extensions exploiting recent advances in political geography, political economy, and spatial econometrics make it possible to draw some general and methodological conclusions. Global drivers interact with elements pertaining to the political supply that empirical researchers should not be oblivious about. Political spillovers across neighboring areas add to the direct impact of locally mediated economic factors. Finally, the adoption of shift–share instrumental variables to identify the impact of robotization may lack robustness.

While recent work has documented a nexus between international trade and firm innovation, the underlying mechanisms explaining _rms' innovation in response to import competition are thus far poorly understood. To identify such mechanisms and their economic relevance, we use longitudinal linked employer-employee data from Denmark (1995-2012) and conduct analyses at both the firm and worker levels. We first show that import competition triggers a significant increase in innovation. Approximately 40 percent of the innovation effect is attributable to the increase in the share of R&D workers; 14 percent of this increase in the share of R&D workers is due to within-firm worker switching to R&D jobs, while 80 percent is explained by between-firm worker reallocation. Furthermore, we show that having a larger degree of between-firm worker reallocation to R&D jobs relative to within-firm switching is associated with more innovation. The salience of between-firm reallocation is further confirmed by a worker-level analysis, and its importance to innovation is underscored when we extend our analysis to Portugal.

Before the recent rebound due to the US–China trade war, tariffs on international trade were being progressively reduced over the last decades and advanced countries increasingly relied on non-tariff measures (NTMs) to protect their industries from foreign competition. In this paper, we exploit a novel database on NTMs to test their role in shaping the labour market effects of exposure to Chinese import competition over the 2000–2015 period. We relate changes in manufacturing employment to the share of employed workers protected by NTMs across US local labour markets and we instrument NTMs using the industry share of employment in swing states during presidential elections. Our results indicate that NTMs mitigate the negative employment effect of exposure to Chinese imports and have a positive effect on manufacturing wages (especially for the unskilled).

We revisit the impact of rising imports from China on within firm labour productivity growth in the EU. The period analysed is 2003 through 2016 and thus covers the recent increase of technology-intensive imports from China. We find that higher fractions of Chinese imports in aggregate imports slow down labour productivity growth of domestic firms in Europe. The adverse effect becomes more pronounced at higher growth rates. Multinationals are able to partly compensate the negative effects of import competition and benefit from Chinese imports at higher productivity growth intensities. The effects are strongest for local firms and firms in low tech industries. No effects were found for firms in high-tech industries.

A rapidly growing literature has shown that market concentration among domestic firms has increased in the United States over the last three decades. Using confidential census data for the manufacturing sector, we show that typical measures of concentration, once adjusted for sales by foreign exporters, actually stayed constant between 1992 and 2012. We reconcile these findings by linking part of the increase in domestic concentration to import competition. Although concentration among U.S.-based firms rose, the growth of foreign firms, mostly at the bottom of the sales distribution, counteracted this increase. We find that higher import competition caused a decline in the market shares of the top twenty U.S. firms.

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. This paper investigates whether and how import competition affects firm innovation. Using China's WTO accession as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that import competition reduces firm innovation, which is consistent with the Schumpeterian effect. We also find heterogeneous treatment effects across firm productivity and patent types. These results are consistent with the preference and knowledge spillover effects, but not with the escape-competition and trapped-factor effects.

This paper assesses the relationship between import competition and firm‐level markups by examining the imports of intermediate and final goods. Using a rich firm‐level dataset of French food companies from 2001 to 2013, we find that, on average, increased final goods import competition (intermediate inputs) is negatively (positively) associated with firm‐level markups. These results are consistent with the trade models that predict the pro‐competitive effects of trade and the incomplete cost pass‐through to prices. Importantly, the reduction in markups due to the pro‐competitive effect of trade tends to be counterbalanced by the increase in markups induced by incomplete pass‐through. Our empirical analysis uncovers considerable heterogeneity in the effects of output and input import competition on markups. Our results particularly reveal that firm size and industry market structure (i.e. concentration) are key determinants of how firm‐level markups respond to import competition.

This study examines how the product mixes of Japanese manufacturing plants have been impacted by the rise of China imports over the period 1997-2014, and the extent that plants' local embeddedness mitigate this causal relationship. We find evidence that China import competition induced both product downsizing and product exit within Japanese manufacturing plants. Moreover, we find that those negative e ects differ across plants according to various plant characteristics including the spatial organization of their parent firm. Finally, we show that both product survival and product sales are positively impacted by external agglomeration economies, but these e ects are strong for standalone plants only, and almost non-existent for plants aliated to spatially compact multi-unit firms.

This paper examines the effect of import competition on corporate tax avoidance. I exploit the rapid surge of China’s exports as a competition shock and balance sheets and income statements to measure tax avoidance of US-headquartered publicly listed manufacturing firms. The baseline results reveal that a 1 percentage point increase in the penetration ratio of US imports from China entails, on average, a 0.20 percentage point decrease in the effective tax rate. They are supported by a series of sensitivity tests and robust to using the US conferral of the Permanent Normal Trade Relations status on China in late 2000 as a quasi-natural experiment. Furthermore, the results are entirely driven by multinational firms. In response to the China shock, these firms invested in intangible assets, and these intangibles allowed them to shift more profits towards low-tax countries. These findings shed light on the determinants of corporate tax avoidance. More generally, they help understand the decline in the average effective tax rate of US publicly listed firms and the recent backlash against large firms and globalization., info:eu-repo/semantics/published

The recent backlash against free trade is partially motivated by the decline in manufacturing employment due to rising import competition from China. Previous studies about the “China syndrome” neglect the role of trade policy. This is surprising, given that politicians in high-income countries have extensively used antidumping (AD) measures to protect their economies from rising Chinese imports. In this paper, I estimate the causal effect of trade protection on imports and employment, by constructing a new instrument for AD measures based on industries’ importance in swing states and experience in filing AD petitions. I show that AD duties have reduced import competition, decreasing the annual growth rate of US imports from China by 0.40 percentage points on average. They have also helped contain the China syndrome, by increasing the annual growth rate of employment in protected industries by 0.07 percentage points. These results show that protectionist instruments allowed under GATT/WTO rules can be used to attenuate the effects of import competition on employment., info:eu-repo/semantics/published

The increased range and quality of China's exports is a major ongoing development in the international economy with potentially far-reaching effects. In this paper, on top of the direct effects of increased imports from China studied in previous research, we also measure the indirect labour market effects stemming from increased export competition in third markets. Our findings, based on matched employer-employee data of Portugal covering the 1991-2008 period, indicate that workers' earnings and employment are significantly negatively affected by China's competition, but only through the indirect 'market-stealing' channel. In contrast to evidence for other countries, the direct effects of Chinese import competition are mostly non-significant. The results are robust to a number of checks and also highlight particular groups more affected by indirect competition, including women, older and less educated workers, and workers in domestic firms.

Has rising import competition contributed to the polarization of U.S. politics? Analyzing multiple measures of political expression and results of congressional and presidential elections spanning the period 2000 through 2016, we find strong though not definitive evidence of an ideological realignment in trade-exposed local labor markets that commences prior to the divisive 2016 U.S. presidential election. Exploiting the exogenous component of rising import competition by China, we find that trade exposed electoral districts simultaneously exhibit growing ideological polarization in some domains – meaning expanding support for both strong-left and strong-right views – and pure rightward shifts in others. Specifically, trade-impacted commuting zones or districts saw an increasing market share for the FOX News channel (a rightward shift), stronger ideological polarization in campaign contributions (a polarized shift), and a relative rise in the likelihood of electing a Republican to Congress (a rightward shift). Trade-exposed counties with an initial majority white population became more likely to elect a GOP conservative, while trade-exposed counties with an initial majority-minority population become more likely to elect a liberal Democrat, where in both sets of counties, these gains came at the expense of moderate Democrats (a polarized shift). In presidential elections, counties with greater trade exposure shifted towards the Republican candidate (a rightward shift). These results broadly support an emerging political economy literature that connects adverse economic shocks to sharp ideological realignments that cleave along racial and ethnic lines and induce discrete shifts in political preferences and economic policy.

We study gender differences in the labor market reallocation of Peruvian workers in response to trade liberalization. The empirical strategy relies on variation in import competition across local labor markets based on their industrial composition before China entered the global market in 2001. In contrast to much of the existing literature, we find that import competition did not have persistent negative employment effects on men or led them to sort into the non-tradable or informal sectors. The adverse effects on the employment of low-educated women in the tradable sector, however, persist over time leading them to sort into the non-tradable sector or out of the labor force. The results are consistent with a mechanism in which gender occupational and industrial segregation leads to a widening of the gender gap in employment.

This paper investigates the impact of import liberalization induced labor demand shocks on male and female employment in China. Combining data from population and firm census waves over the period of 1990 to 2005, we relate prefecture-level employment by gender to the exposure to tariff reductions on locally imported products. Our empirical results show that increasing import competition has kept more females in the workforce, reducing an otherwise growing gender employment gap. These dynamics were present both in the local economies as a whole and among formal private industrial firms. Examining channels through which tariff reductions differentially affected males and females, we find that trade induced competitive pressures contributed to a general expansion of female intensive industries, shifts in sectoral gender segregation, reductions in gender discrimination in the labor market, technological upgrading through computerization and general income growth.

This paper exploits a quasi-natural experiment to study the channels of labor market adjustment to an import shock. Using matched employer-employee data from Sweden, I study workers' adjustment after the removal of quotas set out by the Multi-Fiber Arrangement for Chinese producers upon China's entry into the WTO. I find evidence of substantial losses in terms of earnings and employment. Sectoral mobility mitigates a portion of these losses, but gives rise to substantial adjustment frictions. The largest losses accrue to workers with skills specific to the exposed industry. Some losses are recovered through mobility across labor markets, but only workers in high-skill occupations benefit from this channel. I also show that skill specificity of the local labor market is an important determinant of adjustment and provide evidence of skill upgrading in response to the import shock.

We study whether and to what extent the electoral dynamics in Italy over the 1994–2008 period can be explained by the development of economic factors associated with globalization. To measure the level of exposure to globalization for local labor markets, our main unit of analysis, we use the intensity of import competition from China and the presence of immigrants. Looking at parties’ political positions and employing an estimation strategy that accounts for endogeneity and time‐invariant unobserved effects across local labor markets, we find that both immigration intensity and exposure to import competition from China have contributed positively to the electoral outcomes of far‐right parties, whereas only immigration intensity has increased the vote shares of right‐wing and traditionalist/authoritarian/nationalist parties. Some evidence, albeit not robust, shows that immigration may have also had a positive impact on far‐left parties, thus possibly further contributing toward political polarization. Moreover, electoral turnout has responded negatively to an increased presence of migrants. While the above effects seem to work through the mediation of labor markets, our results, especially those related to immigration, suggest that other mechanisms at the level of local communities are also at play.

This paper studies the effects of import competition from China and Eastern Europe (EE) on the fertility decisions of individuals in German manufacturing. Through the lens of gender, the paper uniquely contributes to the literature by linking import competition to longitudinal individual data to examine individual fertility. Two separate measures of import exposure are computed for competition from China and EE (amassing five countries), whose trade volumes with Germany have increased remarkably during the panel years. Fixed-effects instrumental variable (FEIV) estimation results show that individual fertility decreases by 1.6 p.p. and by 2.0 p.p. with rising competition from China and EE, respectively. The effects are robust and consistent across different subgroups of individuals. Effects of import competition are then inspected by gender, alongside potential mechanisms underlying fertility decisions. Both male and female workers' fertility is affected via reduced earnings, though differently. The effect on male fertility is negative, with shortened employment duration. Conversely, the effect on female workers' fertility is positive, with worsened working conditions. Furthermore, in line with family economics theory, these results suggest that there is a substitution effect in the labour supply of women, here prevalently concentrated in low-technology sectors: as female earnings fall and their opportunity cost of work is lower, the prospect of having children possibly becomes a more rewarding alternative.

Concerns about carbon offshoring, namely the relocation of dirty tasks abroad, undermine the efficiency of domestic carbon mitigation policies and might prevent governments from adopting more ambitious climate policies. This paper is the first to analyse the extent and determinants of carbon offshoring at the firm level. We combine information on carbon emissions, imports, imported emissions and environmental policy stringency based on a unique dataset of 5,000 French manufacturing firms observed from 1997 to 2014. We estimate the impact of imported emissions on firm’s domestic emissions and emission intensity using a shift-share instrumental variable strategy. We do not find compelling evidence of an impact of carbon offshoring on total emissions, but show that emission efficiency improves in companies offshoring emissions abroad, suggesting that offshored emissions are compensated by an increase in production scale. The effect is economically meaningful with a 10% increase in carbon offshoring causing a 4% decline in emission intensity. However, this effect is twice as small as that of domestic energy prices and, importantly, does not appear to be driven by a pollution haven motive.

This paper assesses the effect of import competition on the labor market and health outcomes of US workers. We first show that import shocks affect employment and income, but only in areas where jobs are more intense in routine tasks. Exploiting over 40 million individual observations on health and mortality, we find that import had a detrimental effect on physical and mental health that is concentrated in those areas and exhibits strong persistence. It decreased health care utilisation and increased hospitalisation for a large set of conditions, more difficult to treat. The mortality hazard of workers in manufacturing increased by up to 6 percent per billion dollar import increase.

We analyze how local labor markets in Mexico adjusted in response to an increase in Chinese import competition between 1998 and 2013. We exploit the spatial variation in import exposure arising from initial differences in industry specialization. We found that the adjustment took various forms: a decline in the number of wage employees, the substitution of some wage employees by contract workers, and the substitution of formally contracted employees by informally contracted ones. The reduction in employment levels was accompanied by an increase in the population that exited the labor force. The negative employment impact was three times more severe on production workers than on nonproduction workers, indicating that workers with lower skills were more severely affected. Overall, we find significant job losses to the order of 7.6% of the working-age population.

This paper uses the sudden surge in Chinese competition faced by Brazil's manufacturers in the 2000s to revisit the findings from the literature on how productivity, innovation, and employment were impacted by the Great Liberalizationa period of massive trade opening in the early 1990s in Latin America. Using manufacturing firm-level data and sectoral variation of Chinese competition, we focus on the most intense period of the shock -2000 to 2013- and on its procompetitive and employment effects. The results reinforce some of the key findings of the earlier literature, notably the positive, procompetitive effect of trade on total factor productivity (TFP). However, as in the 1990s, these gains do not seem to have been robust enough to prevent the countrys TFP performance from being dismal. Likewise, they seem to be more consistent with level effects than growth effects. Inconclusive results on innovation also seem to point in this direction. The estimated effects on employment point to a relatively small negative shock, not unlike that of the early 1990s, that was centered on low-skilled labor and was consistent with the countrys relative abundance of natural resources. Overall, the results seem to underline the limits of trade policy in boosting employment and long-term productivity growth. Policymakers should manage their expectations accordingly.

Concerns about carbon offshoring, namely the relocation of dirty tasks abroad, undermine the efficiency of domestic carbon mitigation policies and might prevent governments from adopting more ambitious climate policies. This paper is the first to analyse the extent and determinants of carbon offshoring at the firm level. We combine information on carbon emissions, imports, imported emissions and environmental policy stringency based on a unique dataset of 5,000 French manufacturing firms observed from 1997 to 2014. We estimate the impact of imported emissions on firm’s domestic emissions and emission intensity using a shift-share instrumental variable strategy. We do not find compelling evidence of an impact of carbon offshoring on total emissions, but show that emission efficiency improves in companies offshoring emissions abroad, suggesting that offshored emissions are compensated by an increase in production scale. The effect is economically meaningful with a 10% increase in carbon offshoring causing a 4% decline in emission intensity. However, this effect is twice as small as that of domestic energy prices and, importantly, does not appear to be driven by a pollution haven motive.

This study examines how Japanese firms change their product portfolios in response to surges of imports from China. Using the comprehensive Japanese plant-product level panel data set, we examine the impact of import competition on their product churning behavior. We found that the import competition pressures do affect the product churning for multi-product plants. However, the negative effects of import competition are mitigated by increased export opportunities. This effect is more pronounced especially in the years before 2008. However, their impact on plant-level reallocation is somewhat limited. Negative effects on plant-level sales and exit behavior are observed only for single-product plants.