Search

Early and accurate prediction of grain yield is of great significance for ensuring food security and formulating food policy. The exploration of key growth phases and features is beneficial to improving the efficiency and accuracy of yield prediction. In this study, a hybrid approach using the WOFOST model and deep learning was developed to forecast corn yield, which analysed yield prediction potential at different growth phases and features. The World Food Studies (WOFOST) model was used to build a comprehensive simulated dataset by inputting meteorological, soil, crop and management data. Different feature combinations at various growth phases were designed to forecast yield using machine learning and deep learning methods. The results show that the key features of corn’s vegetative growth stage and reproductive growth stage were growth state features and water-related features, respectively. With the continuous advancement of the crop growth stage, the ability to predict yield continued to improve. Especially after entering the reproductive growth stage, corn kernels begin to form, and the yield prediction performance is significantly improved. The performance of the optimal yield prediction model in flowering (R2 = 0.53, RMSE = 554.84 kg/ha, MRE = 8.27%), in milk maturity (R2 = 0.89, RMSE = 268.76 kg/ha, MRE = 4.01%), and in maturity (R2 = 0.98, RMSE = 102.65 kg/ha, MRE = 1.53%) were given. Thus, our method improves the accuracy of yield prediction, and provides reliable analysis results for predicting yield at various growth phases, which is helpful for farmers and governments in agricultural decision making. This can also be applied to yield prediction for other crops, which is of great value to guide agricultural production.

Cotton constitutes 81% of the world’s natural fibers. Accurate and rapid cotton yield estimation is important for cotton trade and agricultural policy development. Therefore, we developed a remote sensing index that can intuitively represent cotton boll characteristics and support cotton yield estimation by extracting cotton boll pixels. In our study, the Density of open Cotton boll Pixels (DCPs) was extracted by designing different cotton boll indices combined with the threshold segmentation method. The relationship between DCP and field survey datasets, the Density of Total Cotton bolls (DTC), and yield were compared and analyzed. Five common yield estimation models, Linear Regression (LR), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Random Forest (RF), and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), were implemented and evaluated. The results showed that DCP had a strong correlation with yield, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.84. The RF method exhibited the best yield estimation performance, with average R2 and rRMSE values of 0.77 and 7.5%, respectively (five-fold cross-validation). This study showed that RedGreenBlue (RGB) and Near Infrared Red (NIR) normalized, a normalized form index consisting of the RGB and NIR bands, performed best.