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In New Zealand, there has been increasing interest in productivity growth, both at economywide and sector levels. The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry maintains a total factor productivity series for the primary sectors. As part of the ministry's flagship project on growth and productivity, we are reviewing the methodology and extending productivity derivation to downstream industries. This paper presents our research results to date.

In New Zealand, there has been increasing interest in productivity growth, both at economywide and sector levels. The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry maintains a total factor productivity series for the primary sectors. As part of the ministry's flagship project on growth and productivity, we are reviewing the methodology and extending productivity derivation to downstream industries. This paper presents our research results to date.

Between 1990 and 2004 the value of world trade increased by 110% whereas the value of exports from New Zealand's land based sectors expanded by only 51%. This paper examines New Zealand's performance using shift share analysis. According to this framework, the main cause of this slow export performance is that international trade in agricultural and forestry commodities has been growing slowly. Countering this, New Zealand has been improving its competitiveness within these commodities, especially since 2000.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) undertakes forecasts and projections of livestock numbers as part of the twice yearly contribution to The Treasury’s economic and fiscal updates. MAF’s Pastoral Supply Response Model (PSRM) was recently re-developed and used for the first time in the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update round of 2004. The PSRM projects annual inventory numbers as at 30 June, births and livestock numbers for slaughter. The paper discusses the PSRM, the post-model adjustments process, and the feed through to a simplistic assessment of land use changes within pasture areas.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) undertakes forecasts and projections of livestock numbers as part of the twice yearly contribution to The Treasury’s economic and fiscal updates. MAF’s Pastoral Supply Response Model (PSRM) was recently re-developed and used for the first time in the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update round of 2004. The PSRM projects annual inventory numbers as at 30 June, births and livestock numbers for slaughter. The paper discusses the PSRM, the post-model adjustments process, and the feed through to a simplistic assessment of land use changes within pasture areas.