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oral communication, texte intégral; Modelling complex systems such as agroecosystems often requires the quantification of a large number of input factors. Sensitivity analyses are useful to fix the appropriate spatial and temporal resolution of models and to reduce the number of input factors to be measured or estimated accurately. Comprehensive spatial and dynamic sensitivity analyses were applied to the Nitroscape model, a deterministic spatially distributed model describing nitrogen transfers and transformations in a rural landscape. Simulations were led on a virtual landscape that represented five years of farm management in an intensive rural area of 3 km². Cluster analyses were applied to summarize the results of the sensitivity analysis on the ensemble of model outcomes. The 29 studied output variables were split into five different clusters that grouped outcomes with similar response to input factors. Among the 11 studied factors, model outcomes were mainly sensitive to inputs characterizing the lateral transmissivity of soil. The horizontal resolution of the model was a significant factor driving ammonium and nitrate mineralisation, and uptake by plants. The vertical resolution of the model had the highest impact on the cumulate emissions of nitrous oxides. The interactions between the amount of nitrogen used in fertilization and the lateral transmissivity of soil was the most important factorial effect driving the amount of nitrogen in the catchment discharge.

This work presents a Cellular Automata model to characterize the social and environmental factors which contribute for the analysis of the expansion process of Schistosoma mansoni infection in Pernambuco - Brazil. The model has been experimented with a set of two years real data from a study area at North Coast of Pernambuco – Brazil. The main constraint equations, the modelling process and the results obtained until now with the simulating scenarios generated are presented here. The results identify, as in field works, endemic areas and human risk infection areas. Furthermore, predictive scenarios for a look ahead with a perspective into fifteen years are also presented.

La malària és encara avui en dia una malaltia que causa aproximadament un milió de morts a l'any a tot el món. La seva eradicació suposa un gran repte per a la humanitat i per a la comunitat científica, en particular. El cultiu in vitro del paràsit és essencial per al desenvolupament de nous medicaments. Els mètodes de cultiu actuals es basen en l'heurística i requereixen millores.En aquesta tesi es presenta una aproximació teòrica al procés d'infecció a eritròcits en cultius in vitro amb Plasmodium falciparum, un dels protozous paràsits causants de la malària. El treball està centrat en la construcció i avaluació de models d'una complexitat adequada per tractar els problemes específics detectats pels experts en l'àmbit, i inclou també la formulació d'algorismes de simulació i el disseny de protocols experimentals.Aquest tipus de treball requereix de la col·laboració multidisciplinària. La visió dels experts en malària es complementa amb la modelització i simulació, que permet la comprovació dels supòsits preestablerts, la comprensió de fenòmens observats i la millora dels mètodes de cultiu actuals. Així doncs, cal establir i desenvolupar eines que permetin crear, analitzar i compartir models amb grups que estudien la malària des d'altres perspectives. En aquesta tesi, s'ha optat per la modelització basada en l'individu (IbM) i orientada a la reproducció de múltiples patrons (PoM). El model s'ha formulat seguint l'ODD, un protocol estàndard en el camp de l'ecologia teòrica, que s'ha adaptat a la representació de comunitats microbianes.Els models basats en l'individu (IbMs) defineixen un conjunt de normes que regeixen el comportament de cada cèl·lula i les seves interaccions amb les altres cèl·lules i amb el seu entorn immediat. A partir d'aquestes regles, i tenint en compte una certa diversitat dins de la població i un cert grau d'aleatorietat en els processos individuals, els IbMs mostren explícitament el comportament emergent del sistema en conjunt. Complementàriament, s'han aplicat conceptes propis de la termodinàmica per tal d'entendrel'aparició de patrons macroscòpics a partir de l'estructura de la població (per exemple de la distribució de les fases d'infecció entre els glòbuls vermells infectats).Aquesta recerca ha comportat la la creació i aplicació del model i simulador INDISIM-RBC, que ha demostrat ser una bona eina per millorar la comprensió dels cultius estudiats. Es tracta d'un model mecanicista, basat en l'individu, que reprodueix quantitativament els patrons observats en cultius reals a diferents nivells de descripció, i que en prediu el comportament sota determinades condicions.Hem demostrat que INDISIM-RBC pot ser emprat per a estudiar en detall alguns aspectes del cultiu del paràsit causant de la malària que calia aclarir. Permet realitzar experiments virtuals i així impulsar noves línies de recerca i explorar noves tècniques de cultiu. En particular, INDISIM-RBC s'ha utilitzat per millorar els protocols experimentals actuals del cultius estàtics, definint la geometria òptima de l'hematòcrit i els protocols de subcultiu més adequats per als cultius continus.El treball realitzat en malària s'ha comparat amb la investigació duta a terme pel grup de recerca em relació amb d'altres comunitats microbianes. D'aquesta manera, podem estudiar les propietats emergents dels sistemes microbians en general en relació als efectes de la individualitat de la cèl·lula, la diversitat de les poblacions, l'heterogeneïtat en el medi, o el caràcter local de les interaccions, entre d'altres. Aquesta visió general proporciona eines conceptuals que poden ser emprades per refinar l'anàlisi dels processos d'infecció sota estudi., Malaria is still a major burden that causes approximately one million deaths annually worldwide. Its eradication supposes a great challenge to the humanity and to the scientific community, in particular. In vitro cultivation of the parasite is essential for the development of new drugs. Current culture methods are based on heuristics and demand for specific improvements.The present thesis is a theoretical approach to in vitro cultivation of the protozoan parasite Plasmodium falciparum infecting human red blood cells. It mainly focuses on the process of building a model of appropriate complexity to deal with the specific demands above mentioned, but it also includes the formulation and implementation of algorithms, and the design and execution of experimental trials.This kind of work requires multidisciplinary collaboration: the insight of the experts in malaria research is complemented with modeling and simulation, which allows for checking settled assumptions, increasing the understanding on the system and improving the current culturing methods.The use of tools for building, analyzing and sharing models is an imperative to this end. In this thesis, Pattern-oriented Modeling (PoM) has been adopted as the most appropriate way for raising of models and the ODD protocol (Objectives, Design Concepts and Details) has been proposed as the standard tool for communicating them.Individual-based Modeling (IbM) has been used to tackle malaria culture systems. IbMs define a set of rules governing each cell, its interactions with others and with its immediate surroundings. From this set of rules, and taking into account diversity within the population and a certain degree of randomness in the individual processes, IbMs explicitly show the emerging behavior of the system as a whole. Methods from statistical thermodynamics have been applied to understand the emergence of macroscopic patterns from the population structure (e.g. distribution of infection stages among infected red blood cells).The research resulted in the development of the model and simulator INDISIM-RBC, which has proved to be a good tool to improve understanding of the cultures under study. It is a mechanistically rich individual-based model and it quantitatively reproduces and predicts several patterns observed in real cultures at different levels of description.We demonstrated that INDISIM-RBC can be used to study in detail several aspects of malaria cultivation that remained unclear, as well as to perform virtual experiments. Consequently, it can be used to open novel lines of research and to examine potential experimental techniques. INDISIM-RBC has also been used to improve the current experimental culturing protocols in static cultivation by obtaining the optimal geometry of the hematocrit layer and subcultivation periods in the continuous cultures.This study on malaria has been compared to the research carried out by the group regarding other microbial communities. Thereby studying general emerging properties of microbial systems in general, with regard to the effect of cell individuality, heterogeneity and diversity, the local nature of interactions; and biological and spatial complexity. In doing so, the acquired holistic view has been used to develop tools that allow for a better characterization and study of the infection process, in particular.

In the framework of microbiology, Individual-based Models are discrete models in which the main entities are microbes. Their use in simulations as ‘virtual experiments’ to predict the evolution of populations under specific conditions requires accurate setting of the parameters involved. We adapted and tested two optimization methods for Individual-based Model parameter estimation: the Nelder-Mead Threshold Accepting (NMTA) and the NEWUOA. These methods presented no convergence problems, and the best results in terms of time expenditure were derived with the latter.

Malaria is still one of the most fatal diseases in the world. Development of an effective treatment or vaccine requires the cultivation of the parasite that causes it: Plasmodium falciparum. Several methods for in vitro cultivation of P. falciparum infected erythrocytes have been successfully developed and described in the last 30 years. Some problems arising from the current harvests are the low parasitaemia and daily human supervision requirements. The lack of a suitable model for global culture behavior makes the assay of new methodologies a costly and tenuous task. In this paper we present a model and simulation tool for these systems. We use the INDividual DIScrete SIMulation protocol (INDISIM) to qualitatively reproduce the temporal evolution of the erythrocyte and merozoite populations. Whole system dynamics are inferred by setting the rules of behavior for each individual red blood cell, such as the nutrient uptake, metabolism and infection processes, as well as the properties and rules for the culture medium: composition, diffusion and external manipulation. We set the individual description parameters according to the values in published data, and allow population heterogeneity. Cells are arranged in a three-dimensional grid and the study is focused on the geometric constraints and physical design of experimental sets. Several published experimental cultures have been reproduced with computer simulations of this model, showing that the observed experimental behavior can be explained by means of individual interactions and statistical laws.

The lag phase has been widely studied for years in an effort to contribute to the improvement of food safety. Many analytical models have been built and tested by several authors. The use of Individual-based Modelling (IbM) allows us to probe deeper into the behaviour of individual cells; it is a bridge between theories and experiments when needed. INDividual DIScrete SIMulation (INDISIM) has been developed and coded by our group as an IbM simulator and used to study bacterial growth, including the microscopic causes of the lag phase. First of all, the evolution of cellular masses, specifically the mean mass and biomass distribution, is shown to be a determining factor in the beginning of the exponential phase. Secondly, whenever there is a need for an enzyme synthesis, its rate has a direct effect on the lag duration. The variability of the lag phase with different factors is also studied. The known decrease of the lag phase with an increase in the temperature is also observed in the simulations. An initial study of the relationship between individual and collective lag phases is presented, as a complement to the studies already published. One important result is the variability of the individual lag times and generation times. It has also been found that the mean of the individual lags is greater than the population lag. This is the first in a series of studies of the lag phase that we are carrying out. Therefore, the present work addresses a generic system by making a simple set of assumptions.