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There is an increased interest in the district-scale energy transition within interdisciplinary research community. Agent-based modelling presents a suitable approach to address variety of questions related to policies, technologies, processes, and the different stakeholder roles that can foster such transition. However, it is a largely complex and versatile methodology which hinders its broader uptake by researchers as well as improved results. This state-of-the-art review focuses on the application of agent-based modelling for exploring policy interventions that facilitate the decarbonisation (i.e., energy transition) of districts and neighbourhoods while considering stakeholders’ social characteristics and interactions. We systematically select and analyse peer-reviewed literature and discuss the key modelling aspects, such as model purpose, agents and decision-making logic, spatial and temporal aspects, and empirical grounding. The analysis reveals that the most established agent-based models’ focus on innovation diffusion (e.g., adoption of solar panels) and dissemination of energy-saving behaviour among a group of buildings in urban areas. We see a considerable gap in exploring the decisions and interactions of agents other than residential households, such as commercial and even industrial energy consumers (and prosumers). Moreover, measures such as building retrofits and conversion to district energy systems involve many stakeholders and complex interactions between them that up to now have hardly been represented in the agent-based modelling environment. Hence, this work contributes to better understanding and further improving the research on transition towards decarbonised society.

The European Union plans to shift parts of its economy towards a biobased system commonly referred to as a bioeconomy in order to reduce emissions and fossil fuel dependence. Biomass exhibits lower carbon densities, higher moisture contents, and is more heterogeneous when compared to the feedstock basis of the current economy. In this paper, we simulate generic biomass-to-end-use chains to compare economic performances of the three technologically most advanced pre-treatment options for biogenic raw materials. Exemplary cellulosic biomass feedstocks are computed to be processed to pellets, torrefied pellets and pyrolysis oil based on current data from previous research and demonstration projects. Various distribution options are considered for the resulting densified bioenergy carriers to be finally converted to heat, electricity and liquid biofuels. We find that the discussed densified bioenergy carriers could compete in the existing residential heating market. Furthermore, large-scale conversion facilities like coal co-firing and gasification could profit from cost reductions for torrefied pellets when compared to conventional pellets. To reach commoditisation of these bioenergy carriers as well as full commercialisation of the respective technologies, upscaling would have to start now possibly by establishing a residential heating market based on torrefied pellets where framework conditions are most favourable.

Current biomass production and trade volumes for energy and new materials and bio-chemicals are only a small fraction to achieve the bioenergy levels suggested by many global energy and climate change mitigation scenarios for 2050. However, comprehensive sustainability of large scale biomass production and trading has yet to be secured, and governance of developing biomass markets is a critical issue. Fundamental choices need to be made on how to develop sustainable biomass supply chains and govern sustainable international biomass markets. The aim of this paper is to provide a vision of how widespread trade and deployment of biomass for energy purposes can be integrated with the wider (bio)economy. It provides an overview of past and current trade flows of the main bioenergy products, and discusses the most important drivers and barriers for bioenergy in general, and more specifically the further development of bioenergy trade over the coming years. It discusses the role of bioenergy as part of the bioeconomy and other potential roles; and how it can help to achieve the sustainable development goals. The paper concludes that it is critical to demonstrate innovative and integrated value chains for biofuels, bioproducts, and biopower that can respond with agility to market factors while providing economic, environmental, and societal benefits to international trade and market. Furthermore, flexible biogenic carbon supply nets based on broad feedstock portfolios and multiple energy and material utilization pathways will reduce risks for involved stakeholder and foster the market entry and uptake of various densified biogenic carbon carriers.

The global pellet market is growing but with different characteristics in different countries and regions. In this paper we trace developments between 2008 and 2016. For 2008, production was reported at 9.8 Tg, expanding globally to 14.3 Tg in 2010 and surpassing 26 Tg in 2015. Global hot spots are North America (production) and Europe (consumption). Sustainability certification was applied for about 9 Tg in 2016. Nevertheless, projections for future development are difficult as low pellet prices and uncertain sustainability obligations may hinder further expansion. In general, there is a strong dependency of the pellet market on the policy framework.

Torrefied biomass has considerable potential as a biomass fuel to replace coal in energy and process heat production. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the potential of torrefied biomass in different industries, both power and non-power generation industries, and considers the impact of such use on the international biomass market. The power generation sector has been so far the leader in testing torrefied biomass use with other industrial demand lagging behind. There are promising technical possibilities for greater torrefied biomass use in a number of other areas such as the steel, non-metallic minerals, as well as the pulp and paper industries. Although a large increase in torrefied biomass consumption by industry is not immediately foreseeable, industrial use by actors outside the energy generation sector could increase demand for torrefied biomass in general and, as a result, stimulate development of global torrefied biomass markets. Results show that the torrefied biomass demand significantly depends on the bioenergy markets. It seems that despite of the challenges, the growth of torrefied biomass demand will have a large progress in coming years. Post-print / final draft

In order to reach sustainable development, the EU plans to expand the production of renewable resources and their conversion into food, feed, biobased products and bioenergy. Therefore also advanced biobased products like e.g. polymers are discussed to substitute their fossil based counterparts which are highly relevant commodities in terms of volumes. The present paper aims to assess the magnitudes of possible substitution shares as well as their implications on biomass demand in the EU28. Therefore scenarios are calculated based on a top-down estimation of current fossil based- and a literature analysis on biobased capacities, respective expectations and targets. Demands for biogenic building blocks are derived using conversion efficiencies and finally energy contents of underlying biogenic carbon carriers are calculated which could be deployed either for energy or material utilisation. We find lowest substitution potentials for biobased surfactants and highest for biodegradable polymers as well as potentials in a same order of magnitude for more durable polymers and biobased bitumen. Compared to average literature estimates for moderate and ambitious bioenergy scenarios, material utilisation could reach up to 4% and 11% shares in 2050 in a joint biobased subsector respectively. However, our scenarios are based on relatively poor data availability. Clearer definitions of products and feedstocks are needed, official monitoring has to be implemented, EU wide substitution targets must be set and pre-treatment and conversion technologies have to be introduced and diffused if we want to discuss and trigger climate change mitigation effects of this bioeconomy subsector in the upcoming decades.

The transformation towards a low-carbon bioeconomy until 2050 is one of the main strategic long-term targets of the European Union. This work presents transformation scenarios for the case of Austria with GHG reduction to about 20% of Kyoto baseline. The scenarios are developed with an optimization model integrating the energy sector, land use and biomass flows. Focus is on investigating possible developments in domestic biomass supply and use. Biomass is crucial for (largely) decarbonising the energy system and replacing fossil-based and energyintensive materials. Domestic biomass use (dry mass) increases by 32% in an 'intensive' and 11% in an 'alternative' transformation scenario, while total energy consumption decreases by 40%. Transformation to a low-carbon bioeconomy could be accomplished without additional biomass imports. Keywords: Low-carbon economy, Bioeconomy, Scenario, Decarbonisation, Biomass

Competitive international markets imply adjustments towards competitive spatial equilibrium in which excess from one market is transferred to another and prices are equilibrated except for remaining differences that can be assigned to transfer costs. The European market for wood pellets used in small-scale heating systems has been expanding significantly over the past decade. Small scale pellet heating is arguably a mature technology, but whether the market is mature is another question. In this paper we analyse recent data on trade flows and price developments between Italy, Austria, Germany and France to understand the developments of wood pellet market efficiency and to draw conclusions about market function. The objective of this study is to establish a framework to test the European residential wood pellet market for competitive spatial equilibrium using modern trade theory. We find mainly inefficiently integrated markets with remaining positive marginal profits and detectable arbitrageurs’ activity. Based on a thorough discussion of these findings and the underlying data we outline possible methodology advancements and list policy recommendations to secure access and affordability of this renewable heating commodity in the long run.

There is evidence that the replacement of carbon-intensive products with bio-based substitutes (‘material substitution with biomass’) can be highly efficient in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Based on two case studies (CS1/2) for Austria, potential benefits of material substitution in comparison to fuel substitution are analysed. GHG savings are calculated according to default IPCC approaches (Tier 2 method assuming first-order decay) and with more realistic approaches based on distribution functions. In CS1, high savings are achieved by using wood residues for the production of insulating boards instead of energy. The superiority of material substitution is due to the establishment of a long-term carbon storage, the high emission factor of wood in comparison to natural gas and higher efficiencies of gas-fired facilities. The biomass feedstock in CS2 is lignocellulosic ethanol being used for bio-ethylene production (material substitution) or replacing gasoline (fuel substitution). GHG savings are mainly due to lower production emissions of bio-ethylene in comparison to conventional ethylene and significantly lower than in CS1 (per unit of biomass consumed). While CS1 is highly robust to parameter variation, the long-term projections in CS2 are quite speculative. To create adequate incentives for including material substitution in national climate strategies, shortcomings of current default accounting methods must be addressed. Under current methods the GHG savings in both case studies would not (fully) materialize in the national GHG inventory. The main reason is that accounting of wood products is confined to the proportion derived from domestic harvest, whereas imported biomass used for energy is treated as carbon-neutral. Further inadequacies of IPCC default accounting methods include the assumption of exponential decay and the disregard of advanced bio-based products.

In den n��chsten Jahrzehnten soll die Deckung des Energiebedarfs der Europ��ischen Union von fossilen Energietr��gern auf erneuerbare Ressourcen verlagert werden. Zurzeit wird ��ber 60% der erneuerbaren Prim��renergie in der EU-28 aus Biomasse abgedeckt. Die relative Kosteneffizienz und auch Simplizit��t der Bioenergie zur Raumw��rmeproduktion und zur Produktion von fl��ssigen Treibstoffen k��nnen als m��gliche Gr��nde f��r die derzeitige Dominanz der Biomasse im Erneuerbarensektor genannt werden. Mit dieser Dissertation m��chte ich die aktuellen Substitutionsbem��hungen von fossilen- zu biogenen kohlenstoffbasierten ��konomischen Aktivit��ten bis 2050 analysieren. Daf��r untersuche ich m��gliche Entwicklungen im Bioenergiesektor, aber auch von anderen Branchen der Wirtschaft die bis jetzt auf betr��chtlichen fossilen Kohlenstoffmengen basieren. Au��erdem diskutiere ich Verdichtungstechnologien zur ��berwindung der Beschaffungslimitierungen in Bezug auf die relativ geringen Kohlenstoffdichten biogener Rohstoffe. Letzteres erforsche ich den Kommodifizierungsprozess der resultierenden verdichteten Biokohlenstofftr��ger. Um diese Themen und ihre Fragen zu behandeln (1) erstelle ich Entwicklungszenarien f��r fortschrittliche Biomaterialien; (2) entwerfe und verwende ich ein generisches Biomasseversorgungskettenmodel und; (3) nutze ich ��konometrische Methoden um die Integration und Effizienz der europ��ischen Markte f��r verdichtete biogene Kohlenstoffprodukte zu quantifizieren. Neben einem erwarteten Wachstum der Biomasseversorgung von derzeit 7 EJ auf 11-17 EJ in 2050 weisen die Szenarien zwischen 6-15 % des Biomasseeinsatzes f��r biobasierte Chemikalien auf. Untersuchte Verdichtungstechnologien k��nnen schon jetzt Kosten im Raumw��rmesektor und in weiterer Folge auch zur Bereitstellung von Strom sowie fl��ssigen Biotreibstoffen und auch Chemikalien basierend auf Lignocellulose senken. Ein, der Pelletisierung vorgeschalteter Torrefizierungsprozess k��nnte Versorgungskettenkosten um bis zu 3 ���*GJ-1 senken. Einsparungspotentiale sind bezogen auf Speicherkosten h��her als f��r Transportkosten. Allerdings sind selbst die in den letzten Jahren etablierten europ��ischen Holzpelletsm��rkte zur Raumw��rmeproduktion noch nicht effizient integriert. Liquidit��t und Wettbewerbsf��higkeit m��ssten verst��rkt werden um hier den Kommodifizierungsprozess zu unterst��tzen. Um die besprochenen Sektoren der Bio��konomie zu st��rken ist au��erdem eine erh��hte Markttransparenz zentral. Diese sollte von allen Marktteilnehmern unterst��tzt und auch eingefordert werden. Deutlicher Forschungs- und Handlungsbedarf besteht in Bezug auf Marktdatenverf��gbarkeit und Marktdatenqualit��t. Die Markttransparenz sowie die ��ffentliche Meinung bez��glich der Vertauschbarkeit von Pellets gleicher Qualit��t soll dadurch verbessert werden., In the upcoming decades, the European Union intends to shift its main input from fossil energy towards renewable sources and technologies. Today, over 60% of primary renewable energy in the EU28 is based on biomass produced by photosynthesis cultivated in forestry and agricultural systems. The current dominance of biomass within the renewable energy sector can be attributed to its cost-effectiveness and to its simplicity in providing renewable space and process heat and in providing a liquid fuel for transportation compared to other renewable alternatives. With this thesis I seek to explore the continuing substitution of fossil carbon-based economic activities with those based on biogenic carbon. I analyse the possible development of both the bioenergy sector and also of new branches of the bioeconomy, replacing those currently based on considerable amounts of fossil carbon. I discuss densification technologies and the way in which they could help to overcome limitations with regard to resource allocation of feedstock with relatively low carbon density, high water content and high heterogeneity, in comparison to current fossil feedstock. Lastly I examine the commoditisation process of resulting densified biomass products. To tackle these issues and related questions, I (1) construct scenarios for the demand of advanced biobased materials; (2) outline and apply a generic biomass-to-end-use chain tool capable of estimating densified bioenergy carrier deployment costs for a high variety of possible relevant supply chains; and (3) perform an econometric analysis to quantify the integration and efficiency of the European market for the currently most-traded densified bioenergy carrier. I find that, while primary biomass supply for bioenergy and advanced biobased materials could grow from about 7 EJ today to 11-17 EJ in 2050 in the EU28, the share of this supply for biobased chemicals - especially biobased plastics and bitumen - could reach 6-15%. Furthermore, I find that densification technologies such as pelletisation, torrefaction and pyrolysis could already reduce heating costs in Europe, and has the potential to cut the cost of lignocellulosic biomass-based electricity, transport fuel and chemical production in the future. If biomass is torrefied before pelletisation, savings of up to 3 ������*GJ-1 could be achieved for woodchip-to-FT-synthesis supply chains. Costs saving effects of densification efforts are found to be higher for increased storage times than for increased transportation distances. It can, however, also be demonstrated that European markets for residential heating based on wood pellets are not efficiently integrated today, and that liquidity and competitiveness would have to be altered in order to support the commoditisation process of this product. Therefore, data availability and quality has to be improved to increase transparency and public perception with respect to fungibility of same-quality pellets independent of pellet colour or supply-chain affiliation, e.g. whether regionally or internationally traded.

Commodities are intermediate goods available in standardized qualities that are traded on competitive and liquid international markets. In this chapter, we analyze the current status and trajectories in biomass markets to discern to what extent solid biomass fuels are becoming commoditized. We present five criteria that are key indicators in the process towards commoditization and market maturity. These indicators are then used as a framework to understand biomass market developments, with particular focus on wood pellet markets, and identify current obstacles to market maturity. We continuously draw comparisons with developments in fossil fuel markets with the dramatic developments in crude oil markets from the late 1960s to the mid-1980s used as a key example. In both the crude oil example and in the wood pellet discussion, the successful establishment of a futures contract is seen as a litmus test of the commoditization process. We find several similarities between historical and current fossil fuel markets and wood pellet markets in the reliance of vertical integration as a risk management tool and in how rigid fuel quality standards are perceived as obstacles to market liquidity. However, biomass markets also have particular characteristics that are not present in fossil fuel markets, especially the need for sustainability and traceability in supply chains. These are essential features of biomass fuels since their attractiveness to a very high degree relies on their being superior to fossil fuels in terms of lifecycle environmental performance. However, they do make the process of commoditization more difficult. For future discussions on biomass market developments, the tension here must be addressed.

The large-scale implementation of bioenergy demands solid biofuels which can be transported, stored and used efficiently. Torrefaction as a form of pyrolysis converts biomass into biofuels with according improved properties such as energy density, grindability and hydrophobicity. Several initiatives advanced this development. The first pilot-scale and demonstration plants displayed the maturity and potential of the technology. The European research project SECTOR intended to shorten the time-to-market. Within the project 158 Mg of biomass were torrefied through different technologies (rotary drum, toroidal reactor, moving bed). Their production led to process optimization of combined torrefaction-densification steps for various feedstocks through analysing changes in structure and composition. The torrefied pellets and briquettes were subjected to logistic tests (handling and storage) as well as to tests in small- and large-scale end-uses. This led to further improvement of the torrefied product meeting logistics/end-use requirements, e.g. durability, grindability, hydrophobicity, biodegradation and energy density. Durability exceeds now 95%. With these test results also international standards of advanced solid biofuels were initiated (ISO standards) as a prerequisite for global trade of torrefied material. Accompanying economic and environmental assessment identified a broad range of scenarios in which torrefied biomass perform better in these areas than traditional solid biofuels (e.g. white pellets), depending e.g. on feedstock, plant size, transport distances, integration of torrefaction in existing industries and end use. The implementation of industrial plants is the next step for the technology development. Different end user markets within and outside Europe can open opportunities here.