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The Green Ninja Film Academy (GENIE) is an interdisciplinary curriculum development project that examines the efficacy of combining climate science concepts and practices with digital storytelling ...

Strategies to mitigate climate change often center on clean technologies such as electric vehicles and solar panels, while the mitigation potential of a quality educational experience is rarely discussed. In this paper, we investigate the long-term impact that an intensive one-year university course had on individual carbon emissions by surveying students at least five years after having taken the course. A majority of course graduates reported pro-environmental decisions (i.e., type of car to buy, food choices) that can be attributed to experiences gained in the course. Furthermore, our carbon footprint analysis demonstrates that for the average course graduate, these decisions reduced their individual carbon emissions by 2.86 tons of CO2 per year. Focus group interviews identify that course graduates have developed a strong personal connection to climate change solutions, and this is realized in their daily behaviors and through their professional careers. The paper discusses in more detail the specific components of the course that are believed to be most impactful, and it shares preliminary outcomes from similar curriculum designs that are being used with K-12 students. Our analysis also demonstrates that if similar education programs were applied at scale, the potential reductions in carbon emissions would be of similar magnitude to other large-scale mitigation strategies such as rooftop solar or electric vehicles.

In Part I of this paper, the optimal ranking regime (ORR) method was used to identify intradecadal to multidecadal (IMD) regimes in U.S. climate division temperature data during 1896–2012. Here, the method is used to test for annual and seasonal precipitation regimes during that same period. Water-year mean streamflow rankings at 125 U.S. Hydro-Climatic Data Network gauge stations are also evaluated during 1939–2011. The precipitation and streamflow regimes identified are compared with ORR-derived regimes in the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and indices derived from gridded SST anomaly (SSTA) analysis data. Using a graphic display approach that allows for the comparison of IMD climate regimes in multiple time series, an interdecadal cycle in western precipitation is apparent after 1980, as is a similar cycle in northwestern streamflow. Before 1980, IMD regimes in northwestern streamflow and annual precipitation are in approximate antiphase with the PDO. One of the clearest IMD climate signals found in this analysis are post-1970 wet regimes in eastern U.S streamflow and annual precipitation, as well as in fall [September–November (SON)] precipitation. Pearson correlations between time series of annual and seasonal precipitation averaged over the eastern United States and SSTA analysis data show relatively extensive positive correlations between warming tropical SSTA and increasing fall precipitation. The possible Pacific and northern Atlantic roots of the recent eastern U.S. wet regime, as well as the general characteristics of U.S. climate variability in recent decades that emerge from this analysis and that of Part I, are discussed.

The optimal ranking regime (ORR) method was used to identify intradecadal to multidecadal (IMD) time windows containing significant ranking sequences in U.S. climate division temperature data. The simplicity of the ORR procedure’s output—a time series’ most significant nonoverlapping periods of high or low rankings—makes it possible to graphically identify common temporal breakpoints and spatial patterns of IMD variability in the analyses of 102 climate division temperature series. This approach is also applied to annual Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) climate indices, a Northern Hemisphere annual temperature (NHT) series, and divisional annual and seasonal temperature data during 1896–2012. In addition, Pearson correlations are calculated between PDO, AMO, and NHT series and the divisional temperature series. Although PDO phase seems to be an important influence on spring temperatures in the northwestern United States, eastern temperature regimes in annual, winter, summer, and fall temperatures are more coincident with cool and warm phase AMO regimes. Annual AMO values also correlate significantly with summer temperatures along the Eastern Seaboard and fall temperatures in the U.S. Southwest. Given evidence of the abrupt onset of cold winter temperatures in the eastern United States during 1957/58, possible climate mechanisms associated with the cause and duration of the eastern U.S. warming hole period—identified here as a cool temperature regime occurring between the late 1950s and late 1980s—are discussed.

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the relationship between hybrid classes (where a per cent of the class meetings are online) and transportation-related CO2 emissions at a commuter campus similar to San José State University (SJSU). Design/methodology/approach – A computer model was developed to calculate the number of trips to campus for a student body similar to SJSU. Different scenarios considered the theoretical effectiveness of implementing a hybrid course system to reduce CO2 emissions. Findings – Increases in hybrid courses resulted in decreased student trips to campus and associated CO2 emissions. The utility of such a relationship is demonstrated through a case study where the required increase in online class meetings needed to eliminate the need for an overflow parking lot is studied. Finally, preferential scheduling of online meetings can further reduce trips to campus. Research limitations/implications – A limitation of the model is that student schedules are random. Future research could use actual student schedules to better model how online course delivery will affect trips to campus. Practical implications – As today’s universities struggle with financial pressure, online course delivery is being offered as a way to cope. This analysis provides an additional metric to evaluate online courses and includes other potential financial savings. Social implications – Transportation contributes to local air pollution and emissions of heat-trapping gases. As universities move toward more sustainable behaviors, reducing automobile trips to campus can be seen as a priority. Originality/value – To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to model the relationship between hybrid courses and CO2 emissions at an urban university. This information will be valuable to the SJSU community, as well as many other institutions.

An equatorial β-plane model of the tropical stratosphere is used to examine the effects of ozone on Kelvin, Rossby–gravity, equatorial Rossby, inertia–gravity, and smaller-scale gravity waves. The model is composed of coupled equations for wind, temperature, and ozone volume mixing ratio, which are linearized about a zonally averaged background state. Using the Wentzel–Kramers–Brillouin (WKB) formalism, equations are obtained for the vertical spatial scale, spatial damping rate, and amplitude of the waves. These equations yield an analytical expression for the ozone-modified wave driving of the zonal-mean circulation. The expression for the wave driving provides an efficient parameterization that can be implemented into models that are unable to spontaneously generate the ozone-modified, convectively coupled waves that drive the quasi-biennial and semiannual oscillations of the tropical stratosphere. The effects of ozone on the wave driving, which are strongly modulated by the Doppler-shifted frequency, are maximized in the upper stratosphere, where ozone photochemistry and vertical ozone advection combine to augment Newtonian cooling. The ozone causes a contraction in spatial scale and an increase in the spatial damping rate. In the midstratosphere to lower mesosphere, the ozone-induced increase in wave driving is about 10%–30% for all wave types, but it can be as large as about 80% over narrow altitude regions and for specific wave types. In the dynamically controlled lower stratosphere, vertical ozone advection dominates over meridional ozone advection and opposes Newtonian cooling, causing, on average, a 10%–15% reduction in the damping rate.

An analysis method previously used to detect observed intra- to multidecadal (IMD) climate regimes was adapted to compare observed and modeled IMD climate variations. Pending the availability of the more appropriate phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) simulations, the method is demonstrated using CMIP-3 model simulations. Although the CMIP-3 experimental design will almost certainly prevent these model runs from reproducing features of historical IMD climate variability, these simulations allow for the demonstration of the method and illustrate how the models and observations disagree. This method samples a time series’s data rankings over moving time windows, converts those ranking sets to a Mann–Whitney U statistic, and then normalizes the U statistic into a Z statistic. By detecting optimally significant IMD ranking regimes of arbitrary onset and varying duration, this process generates time series of Z values that are an adaptively low-passed and normalized transformation of the original time series. Principal component (PC) analysis of the Z series derived from observed annual temperatures at 92 U.S. grid locations during 1919–2008 shows two dominant modes: a PC1 mode with cool temperatures before the late 1960s and warm temperatures after the mid-1980s, and a PC2 mode indicating a multidecadal temperature cycle over the Southeast. Using a graphic analysis of a Z error metric that compares modeled and observed Z series, the three CMIP-3 model simulations tested here are shown to reproduce the PC1 mode but not the PC2 mode. By providing a way to compare grid-level IMD climate response patterns in observed and modeled data, this method can play a useful diagnostic role in future model development and decadal climate forecasting.

Quasi-decadal variations in solar irradiance – termed the 11-year solar cycle (SC) – have been linked to variations in a variety of atmospheric circulation features, including the polar vortex, the Brewer–Dobson circulation, and the quasi-biennial oscillation. These features share an underlying commonality: they are all rooted in wave–mean flow interaction. The purpose of this paper is to provide a historical overview of the connection between the SC and wave–mean flow interaction and to propose a more complete theoretical framework for solar modulated wave–mean flow interaction that includes both zonal-mean and zonally asymmetric ozone as intermediaries for communicating variations in solar spectral irradiance to the climate system. We solve a quasi-geostrophic model using the WKB formalism to highlight the physics connecting the SC to planetary wave-drag. Numerical results show the importance of the zonally asymmetric ozone field in mediating the effects of solar variability to the wave-driven circulation in the middle atmosphere.

Regional changes in California surface temperatures over the last 80 years are analyzed using station data from the US Historical Climate Network and the National Weather Service Cooperative Network. Statistical analyses using annual and seasonal temperature data over the last 80 years show distinctly different spatial and temporal patterns in trends of maximum temperature (Tmax) compared to trends of minimum temperature (Tmin). For trends computed between 1918 and 2006, the rate of warming in Tmin is greater than that of Tmax. Trends computed since 1970 show an amplified warming rate compared to trends computed from 1918, and the rate of warming is comparable between Tmin and Tmax. This is especially true in the southern deserts, where warming trends during spring (March–May) are exceptionally large. While observations show coherent statewide positive trends in Tmin, trends in Tmax vary on finer spatial and temporal scales. Accompanying the observed statewide warming from 1970 to 2006, regional cooling trends in Tmax are observed during winter and summer. These signatures of regional temperature change suggest that a collection of different forcing mechanisms or feedback processes must be present to produce these responses.

Global warming has become one of the most important scientific, political, and social issues of our era. In designing an effective mitigation strategy, it is clear that public education must play an important role. This study looks at various components of climate change literacy within a cohort of university students and investigates the impact of action-oriented learning on student understanding. Results from questionnaires given to primarily nonscience students enrolled in weather and climate courses are used to examine student knowledge of climate change. In agreement with prior research, this study finds that signif icant student misconceptions exist regarding the causes of global warming and the relationship between global warming and ozone depletion. Most students seem to connect global warming only with visible pollution, such as exhaust from either a car or factory, while discounting more indirect emissions such as from electricity use and through product or food consumption. The authors...

The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20th century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario’s forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario’s forced signal.

Atmosphere and ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) experiments for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are analyzed to better understand model variability and assess the importance of various forcing mechanisms on stratospheric trends during the 20th century. While models represent the climatology of the stratosphere reasonably well in comparison with NCEP reanalysis, there are biases and large variability among models. In general, AOGCMs are cooler than NCEP throughout the stratosphere, with the largest differences in the tropics. Around half the AOGCMs have a top level beneath ~2 hPa and show a significant cold bias in their upper levels (~10 hPa) compared to NCEP, suggesting that these models may have compromised simulations near 10 hPa due to a low model top or insufficient stratospheric levels. In the lower stratosphere (50 hPa), the temperature variability associated with large volcanic eruptions is absent in about half of the models, and in the models that do include volcanic aerosols, half of those significantly overestimate the observed warming. There is general agreement on the vertical structure of temperature trends over the last few decades, differences between models are explained by the inclusion of different forcing mechanisms, such as stratospheric ozone depletion and volcanic aerosols. However, even when human and natural forcing agents are included in the simulations, significant differences remain between observations and model trends, particularly in the upper tropical troposphere (200 hPa–100 hPa), where, since 1979, models show a warming trend and the observations a cooling trend.

This chapter discusses some cornerstones of the current United States debate on climate change and the environment, its socio-cultural and historical backgrounds, and some potential perspectives. It provides a macro-typological—and thus necessarily in many ways reductive and incomplete—introduction into a complex and controversial topic currently in the midst of rapid development. This chapter does not claim to represent ‘the’ American mindset towards nature or ‘the’ US view on the question of whether man-made activities are the cause of global warming or not, but aims at providing a primary and generalistic framework for analysing cultural aspects of views on climate change and the environment in the US. It thereby touches on more specific issues and trajectories found in the following chapters of this book.

Constituent observations from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) in combination with estimates of the residual circulation are used to examine the transport and chemical budgets of HF, CH 4 and O 3 in the summer Northern Hemisphere. Budget calculations of HF, CH 4 and O 3 show that the transport tendency due to the residual circulation increases in magnitude and is largely opposed by eddy motions through the summer months. Ozone budget analyses show that between 100 and 31 hPa, the magnitudes of the mean circulation and eddy transport terms increase through the summer months, producing tendencies that are factors of 2 to 3 times larger than the observed ozone change in the stratosphere. Chemical loss dominates the observed ozone decrease only at the highest latitudes, poleward of about 70°N. A comparison of observations from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer with UARS-calculated total ozone suggests that poleward of 50°N, between 35% and 55% of the seasonal ozone decline during the summer occurs at altitudes below 100 hPa. The overall uncertainties, associated primarily with calculations of the residual circulation and eddy transport, are relatively large, and thus prevent accurate and useful constraints on the ozone chemical rate in the lower stratosphere.

Declining levels of stratospheric ozone resulting from anthropogenic source gases is internationally recognized as one of the Earth’s most important environmental issues. In the last twenty years, global ozone trends show that concentrations are decreasing by 2-5% per decade in the middle latitudes. The societal concern is that with decreasing concentrations of ozone, the amount of the Sun’s ultra-violet (UV) radiation reaching the Earth’s surface will increase and potentially damage both human and other biological life. The goal of this pilot study is to investigate whether misconceptions exist in Australian students’ understanding of ozone depletion and the relationship to skin cancer in Australia. Students from year 3 through first year university were questioned about issues related to ozone depletion and skin cancer. A simple experiment is developed to examine whether some student concepts can be altered through the use of visual diagrams. Included in this paper is an update on the current status of ozone depletion over Australia, and the relati onship to UV radiation and skin cancer. In addition, a brief review of newspaper articles written about ozone depletion is conducted to explore what possible role the media plays in public misconceptions. Understanding the origin of students’ ideas can assist teachers in producing more effective study programs 1 and may be useful in developing a national strategy for teaching environmental issues. In Australia there is a particular interest in sun related issues because of the population’s high incidence of skin cancer. For example, in 1995 approximately 270,000 cases of nonmelanocytic skin cancer were diagnosed. This suggests that nearly two in three Australian residents will be treated for some non-melanocytic skin cancer during their lifetime. For the more life-threatening melanoma skin cancer, over 7,000 cases were diagnosed in Australia, with almost 1,000 fatalities reported. It is estimated that the cost of treating skin cancer in Australia is between $300-500 million per year. 2 In an attempt to improve the awareness of the dangers of sun related diseases, the government initiated a number of sun awareness campaigns to educate the public. These campaigns have been highly effective in getting across the message of the sun’s potential harm. In a survey by the Victorian Anti Cancer Council, almost 80% of respondents had heard the term ‘Sun Smart,’ and correctly understood what the phrase meant. 3 Student awareness of the sun and issues related to ozone depletion are also particularly strong. In a recent survey of high school students from Melbourne and Brisbane, the destruction of the ozone layer was identified as the most important environmental issue facing Australia and the

The effects of wave and zonal mean ozone heating on the evolution of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are examined using a two-dimensional mechanistic model of the equatorial stratosphere. The model atmosphere is governed by coupled equations for the zonal mean and (linear) wave fields of ozone, temperature, and wind, and is driven by specifying the amplitudes of a Kelvin wave and a Rossby‐gravity wave at the lower boundary. Wave‐mean flow interactions are accounted for in the model, but not wave‐wave interactions. A reference simulation (RS) of the QBO, in which ozone feedbacks are neglected, is carried out and the results compared with Upper Atmosphere Research Satelliteobservations. The RS is then compared with three model experiments, which examine separately and in combination the effects of wave ozone and zonal mean ozone feedbacks. Wave‐ozone feedbacks alone increase the driving by the Kelvin and Rossby‐gravity waves by up to 10%, producing stronger zonal wind shear zones and a stronger meridional circulation. Zonal mean‐ ozone feedbacks (ozone QBO) alone decrease the magnitude of the temperature QBO by up to 15%, which in turn affects the momentum deposition by the wave fields. Overall, the zonal mean‐ozone feedbacks increase the magnitude of the meridional circulation by up to 30%. The combined effects of wave‐ozone and ozone QBO feedbacks generally produce a larger response then either process alone. Moreover, these combined ozone feedbacks produce a temperature QBO amplitude that is up to 30% larger than simulations without the feedbacks. Correspondingly, significant changes are also observed in the zonal wind and ozone QBOs. When ozone feedbacks are included in the model, the Kelvin and Rossby‐gravity wave amplitudes can be reduced by ;10% and still produce a QBO similar to simulations without ozone.

The effects ofplanetawave breaking on the seasonal variation of total column ozone are investigated using a zonally averaged chemical-radiative-transport model of the atmosphere. The planetary wave breaking effects of zonal wavenumbers k=-I and k=-2 are significant in the middle latitude stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter, whereas only wave k=-I is imtxnmt during Southem Hemisphere (SH) winter. The mixing and induced meridional circulation due to the planetary wave breaking increases the seasonal variation of total column ozone in NH (SH) midcUeatitudes by-20% (- 0%). the model is described in detail in Patten et al. (1994), only a brief summary is provided here. The model domain extends from the surface to 84 km and from pole to pole; the vertical and meridional grid spacing are, respectively, 1.5 km and 5 o. The model chemistry includes 43 tramported species, 4 species for which abundance is determined based on the assumption of instantaneous equilibrium, 106 thermal reactions, and 47 photolytic reactions. Radiative transfer processes are based on a two-stream multiple-layer UV-visible model. Algorithms for calculating radiative scaamng and the bulk optical properties of clouds and aerosols are also included in the model.

An equatorial beta-plane model of the middle atmosphere is used to analytically examine the effects of radiative cooling and ozone heating on the spatial and temporal evolution of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Under the assumption that the diabatic heating is weak and the background fields of wind, temperature, and ozone are slowly varying, a perturbation analysis yields expressions describing the vertical spatial modulation of Kelvin and Rossby‐gravity waves in the presence of ozone. These expressions show that wave-induced changes in the diabatic heating arising from the advection of basic-state ozone reduce the local radiative damping rate by up to 15% below 35 km. In a one-dimensional model of the QBO, eddy ozone heating increases the amplitude of the zonal wind QBO by 1‐2 m s21 and increases the oscillation period by about two months. The significance of these results to the observed QBO is discussed.

An analysis of over 4 years of Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) measurements of CH4, HF, O3, and zonal wind are used to study the influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on constituent transport in the tropics. At the equator, spectral analysis of the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations reveals QBO signals in constituent and temperature fields at altitudes between 20 and 45 km. Between these altitudes, the location of the maximum QBO amplitude roughly corresponds with the location of the largest vertical gradient in the constituent field. Thus, at 40 km where CH4 and HF have strong vertical gradients, QBO signals are correspondingly large, while at lower altitudes where the vertical gradients are weak, so are the QBO variations. Similarly, ozone, which is largely under dynamical control below 30 km in the tropics, has a strong QBO signal in the region of sharp vertical gradients (∼28 km) below the ozone peak. Above 35 km, annual and semi-annual variations are also found to be important components of the variability of long-lived tracers. Therefore, above 30 km, the variability in CH4 and HF at the equator is represented by a combination of semiannual, annual, and QBO timescales. A one-dimensional vertical transport model is used to further investigate the influence of annual and QBO variations on tropical constituent fields. QBO-induced vertical motions are calculated from observed high resolution Doppler imager (HRDI) zonal winds at the equator, while the mean annually varying tropical ascent rate is obtained from the Goddard two-dimensional model. Model simulations of tropical CH4 confirm the importance of both the annual cycle and the QBO in describing the HALOE CH4 observations above 30 km. Estimates of the tropical ascent rate and the variation due to the annual cycle and QBO are also discussed.

[1] Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 simulations that included time-varying radiative forcings were ranked according to their ability to consistently reproduce twentieth century intradecadal to multidecadal (IMD) surface temperature variability at the 5° by 5° spatial scale. IMD variability was identified using the running Mann-Whitney Z method. Model rankings were given context by comparing the IMD variability in preindustrial control runs to observations and by contrasting the IMD variability among the ensemble members within each model. These experiments confirmed that the inclusion of time-varying external forcings brought simulations into closer agreement with observations. Additionally, they illustrated that the magnitude of unforced variability differed between models. This led to a supplementary metric that assessed model ability to reproduce observations while accounting for each model's own degree of unforced variability. These two metrics revealed that discernable differences in skill exist between models and that none of the models reproduced observations at their theoretical optimum level. Overall, these results demonstrate a methodology for assessing coupled models relative to each other within a multimodel framework.

The effects of ozone heating on the linear stability of lower stratospheric traveling waves of the summertime, extratropical circulation are examined. Based on coupled equations for the quasigeostrophic potential vorticity and ozone volume mixing ratio, it is shown that the diabatic heating arising from ozone advection can offset the damping due to Newtonian cooling, leading to wave amplification and significant changes in the structure and zonally rectified fluxes of the wave fields in both the lower stratosphere and troposphere. The vertical profile of the zonal mean wind plays a crucial role in determining whether the ozone heating destabilizes eastward and/or westward traveling disturbances.

[1] Previous modeling studies have found significant differences in winter extratropical stratospheric temperatures depending on the presence or absence of zonally asymmetric ozone heating (ZAOH), yet the physical mechanism causing these differences has not been fully explained. The present study describes the effect of ZAOH on the dynamics of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical stratosphere using an ensemble of free-running atmospheric general circulation model simulations over the 1 December - 31 March period. We find that the simulations including ZAOH produce a significantly warmer and weaker stratospheric polar vortex in mid-February due to more frequent major stratospheric sudden warmings compared to the simulations using only zonal mean ozone heating. This is due to regions of enhanced Eliassen-Palm flux convergence found in the region between 40°N–70°N latitude and 10–0.05 hPa. These results are consistent with changes in the propagation of planetary waves in the presence of ZAOH predicted by an ozone-modified refractive index.

The response of stratospheric climate and circulation to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone recovery in the twenty-first century is analyzed in simulations of 11 chemistry–climate models using near-identical forcings and experimental setup. In addition to an overall global cooling of the stratosphere in the simulations (0.59 ± 0.07 K decade−1 at 10 hPa), ozone recovery causes a warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar lower stratosphere in summer with enhanced cooling above. The rate of warming correlates with the rate of ozone recovery projected by the models and, on average, changes from 0.8 to 0.48 K decade−1 at 100 hPa as the rate of recovery declines from the first to the second half of the century. In the winter northern polar lower stratosphere the increased radiative cooling from the growing abundance of GHGs is, in most models, balanced by adiabatic warming from stronger polar downwelling. In the Antarctic lower stratosphere the models simulate an increase in low temperature extremes required for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, but the positive trend is decreasing over the twenty-first century in all models. In the Arctic, none of the models simulates a statistically significant increase in Arctic PSCs throughout the twenty-first century. The subtropical jets accelerate in response to climate change and the ozone recovery produces a westward acceleration of the lower-stratospheric wind over the Antarctic during summer, though this response is sensitive to the rate of recovery projected by the models. There is a strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation throughout the depth of the stratosphere, which reduces the mean age of air nearly everywhere at a rate of about 0.05 yr decade−1 in those models with this diagnostic. On average, the annual mean tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere (∼70 hPa) increases by almost 2% decade−1, with 59% of this trend forced by the parameterized orographic gravity wave drag in the models. This is a consequence of the eastward acceleration of the subtropical jets, which increases the upward flux of (parameterized) momentum reaching the lower stratosphere in these latitudes.

Simulations from eleven coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) employing nearly identical forcings have been used to project the evolution of stratospheric ozone throughout the 21st century. The model-to-model agreement in projected temperature trends is good, and all CCMs predict continued, global mean cooling of the stratosphere over the next 5 decades, increasing from around 0.25 K/decade at 50 hPa to around 1 K/ decade at 1 hPa under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. In general, the simulated ozone evolution is mainly determined by decreases in halogen concentrations and continued cooling of the global stratosphere due to increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Column ozone is projected to increase as stratospheric halogen concentrations return to 1980s levels. Because of ozone increases in the middle and upper stratosphere due to GHGinduced cooling, total ozone averaged over midlatitudes, outside the polar regions, and globally, is projected to increase to 1980 values between 2035 and 2050 and before lower stratospheric halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values. In the polar regions the CCMs simulate small temperature trends in the first and second half of the 21st century in midwinter. Differences in stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly) among the CCMs are key to diagnosing the intermodel differences in simulated ozone recovery, in particular in the Antarctic. It is found that there are substantial quantitative differences in the simulated Cly, with the October mean Antarctic Cly peak value varying from less than 2 ppb to over 3.5 ppb in the CCMs, and the date at which the Cly returns to 1980 values varying from before 2030 to after 2050. There is a similar variation in the timing of recovery of Antarctic springtime column ozone back to 1980 values. As most models underestimate peak Cly near 2000, ozone recovery in the Antarctic could occur even later, between 2060 and 2070. In the Arctic the column ozone increase in spring does not follow halogen decreases as closely as in the Antarctic, reaching 1980 values before Arctic halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values and before the Antarctic. None of the CCMs predict future large decreases in the Arctic column ozone. By 2100, total column ozone is projected to be substantially above 1980 values in all regions except in the tropics.

[1] An ozone-modified refractive index (OMRI) is derived for vertically propagating planetary waves using a mechanistic model that couples quasigeostrophic potential vorticity and ozone volume mixing ratio. The OMRI clarifies how wave-induced heating due to ozone photochemistry, ozone transport, and Newtonian cooling (NC) combine to affect wave propagation, attenuation, and drag on the zonal mean flow. In the photochemically controlled upper stratosphere, the wave-induced ozone heating (OH) always augments the NC, whereas in the dynamically controlled lower stratosphere, the wave-induced OH may augment or reduce the NC depending on the detailed nature of the wave vertical structure and zonal mean ozone gradients. For a basic state representative of Northern Hemisphere winter, the wave-induced OH can increase the planetary wave drag by more than a factor of two in the photochemically controlled upper stratosphere and decrease it by as much as 25% in the dynamically controlled lower stratosphere. Because the zonal mean ozone distribution appears explicitly in the OMRI, the OMRI can be used as a tool for understanding how changes in stratospheric ozone due to solar variability and chemical depletion affect stratosphere-troposphere communication.

Simulations of the stratosphere from thirteen coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) are evaluated to provide guidance for the interpretation of ozone predictions made by the same CCMs. The focus of the evaluation is on how well the fields and processes that are important for determining the ozone distribution are represented in the simulations of the recent past. The core period of the evaluation is from 1980 to 1999 but long-term trends are compared for an extended period (1960–2004). Comparisons of polar high-latitude temperatures show that most CCMs have only small biases in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring, but still have cold biases in the Southern Hemisphere spring below 10 hPa. Most CCMs display the correct stratospheric response of polar temperatures to wave forcing in the Northern, but not in the Southern Hemisphere. Global long-term stratospheric temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with satellite and radiosonde observations. Comparisons of simulations of methane, mean age of air, and propagation of the annual cycle in water vapor show a wide spread in the results, indicating differences in transport. However, for around half the models there is reasonable agreement with observations. In these models the mean age of air and the water vapor tape recorder signal are generally better than reported in previous model intercomparisons. Comparisons of the water vapor and inorganic chlorine (Cly) fields also show a large intermodel spread. Differences in tropical water vapor mixing ratios in the lower stratosphere are primarily related to biases in the simulated tropical tropopause temperatures and not transport. The spread in Cly, which is largest in the polar lower stratosphere, appears to be primarily related to transport differences. In general the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle in total ozone is well simulated apart from the southern high latitudes. Most CCMs show reasonable agreement with observed total ozone trends and variability on a global scale, but a greater spread in the ozone trends in polar regions in spring, especially in the Arctic. In conclusion, despite the wide range of skills in representing different processes assessed here, there is sufficient agreement between the majority of the CCMs and the observations that some confidence can be placed in their predictions.

Atmosphere and Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) experiments for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report are analyzed using both 20th and 21st century model output to better understand model variability and assess the importance of various forcing mechanisms on stratospheric trends. While models represent the climatology of the stratosphere reasonably well in comparison with NCEP reanalysis, there are biases and large variability among models. In general, AOGCMs are cooler than NCEP throughout the stratosphere, with the largest differences in the tropics. Around half the AOGCMs have a top level beneath ~2 hPa and show a significant cold bias in their upper levels (~10 hPa) compared to NCEP, suggesting that these models may have compromised simulations near 10 hPa due to a low model top or insufficient stratospheric levels. In the lower stratosphere (50 hPa), the temperature variability associated with large volcanic eruptions is either absent (in about half of the models) or the warming is overestimated in the models that do include volcanic aerosols. There is general agreement on the vertical structure of temperature trends over the last few decades, differences between models are explained by the inclusion of different forcing mechanisms, such as stratospheric ozone depletion and volcanic aerosols. However, even when human and natural forcing agents are included in the simulations, significant differences remain between observations and model trends, particularly in the upper tropical troposphere (200 hPa–100 hPa), where, since 1979, models show a warming trend and the observations a cooling trend.

[1] The response of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to zonal-mean ozone perturbations consistent with the 11-year solar cycle is examined using a 2 dimensional model of the tropical stratosphere. Unique to this model are wave-ozone feedbacks, which provide a new, nonlinear pathway for communicating solar variability effects to the QBO. Model simulations show that for zonal-mean ozone perturbations representative of solar maximum (minimum), the diabatic heating due to the wave-ozone feedbacks is primarily responsible for driving a slightly stronger (weaker) QBO circulation and producing a slightly shorter (longer) QBO period. These results, which are explained via an analytical analysis of the divergence of Eliassen-palm flux, are in general agreement with observations of quasi-decadal variability of the QBO.

[1] Observations from both ground-based and satellite instruments show record low column ozone abundance between 20°S and 40°S during 1997. The 1997 monthly averaged column ozone from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) is up to 25 Dobson units (DU) lower than the TOMS climatological mean (1979–1996) and up to 20 DU below the previous record low values. Observations from the Halogen Occultation Experiment show that below average ozone concentrations during 1997 were confined primarily to the lower stratosphere. Residual circulation statistics calculated from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office temperature analyses indicate that circulation anomalies during 1997 can account for ∼5–10 DU/month decrease in column ozone between 20°S and 50°S. At these latitudes during 1997, structural characteristics of the ozone and residual circulation fields both suggest a connection with the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation.

[1] A three-dimensional chemical transport model is utilized to study the transport out of the Antarctic polar vortex during the southern hemisphere spring. On average, over five consecutive years between 1993 and 1997, horizontal transport out of the vortex into the midlatitude stratosphere is smaller than vertical transport into the troposphere. However, there is significant interannual variability in the magnitude of mass exchange, which is related to year-to-year fluctuations in planetary wave activity. In 1994 the net loss of the vortex tracer mass in September is similar to that in October. However, the relative mass flux entering the midlatitude stratosphere and the troposphere differ between the two months. The ratio of horizontal transport out of the vortex to vertical transport into the troposphere is about 3:7 in September and 5:5 in October, indicating the higher permeability of the vortex in October compared to September. The September mass flux into the troposphere is larger than in October, consistent with the fact that stronger diabatic cooling occurs in September than October over Antarctica. The estimated ozone change at southern midlatitudes due to the intrusion of ozone-depleted air from high latitudes during September–October 1994 is about −0.44% per decade, which could contribute up to 10% of observed ozone decline at southern midlatitudes in spring. This amount is an underestimate of the dilution effect from high latitudes during the spring season, as it does not include the vortex breakup in late spring.