Search

IntroductionAn ‘on-demand’ contraceptive pill may suit women having infrequent sex. We assessed the feasibility of e-commerce pharmacy provision and acceptability of levonorgestrel (LNG) 1.5 mg for pericoital use in Kenya.MethodsA 12-month prospective, single-arm, open-label, interventional study conducted from August 2020 to August 2021. A total of 897 women aged 18–49 years at risk of pregnancy and having infrequent sex (ie, six times or fewer coital frequency/month) were screened and enrolled. We undertook univariate and bivariate analysis on multiple data points: enrolment dataset, bimonthly surveys, extended survey around 6-month follow-up, and e-commerce pharmacy sales log.ResultsA total of 2291 pericoital LNG 1.5 mg pill doses were dispensed to 300 women over a 12-month period mainly via the USSD (Unstructured Supplementary Service Data) platform. Of the 266 women who obtained the pill and completed the survey, most (83%) were satisfied/very satisfied with e-commerce platform services, citing convenience and ease of use. The pill was also acceptable. Of the 266 women who used it at least once, 94% were satisfied/very satisfied, likely to continue using and would recommend it to others; 86% used it within 24 hours before/after sex as recommended and most of the time they had sex; and 147 (55%) experienced side effects, mainly nausea, headache, changes in menstrual pattern, cramps and dizziness that were mild and tolerable.ConclusionsE-commerce pharmacy provision of LNG 1.5 mg for pericoital use is feasible. In addition, a pericoital LNG 1.5 mg pill is acceptable among women having infrequent sex and could potentially address their unmet family planning needs.

Background: Integrated management of cardiometabolic diseases is crucial in improving the quality of life of older persons. The objective of the study was to identify clusters of cardiometabolic multimorbidity associated with moderate and severe disabilities in Ghana and South Africa. Methods: Data were from the World Health Organization (WHO) study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) Wave-2 (2015) conducted in Ghana and South Africa. We analysed the clustering of cardiometabolic diseases including angina, stroke, diabetes, obesity, and hypertension with unrelated conditions such as asthma, chronic lung disease, arthritis, cataracts, and depression. The WHO Disability Assessment Instrument version 2.0 was used to assess functional disability. We used latent class analysis to calculate the multimorbidity classes and disability severity levels. Ordinal logistic regression was used to identify the clusters of multimorbidity associated with moderate and severe disabilities. Results: Data from 4,190 adults aged over 50 years were analysed. The prevalence of moderate and severe disabilities was 27.0% and 8.9% respectively. Four latent classes of multimorbidity were identified. These included a relatively healthy group with minimal cardiometabolic multimorbidity (63.5%), general and abdominal obesity (20.5%), hypertension, abdominal obesity, diabetes, cataracts, and arthritis (10.0%), and angina, chronic lung disease, asthma, and depression (6.0%). Compared to the participants with minimal cardiometabolic multimorbidity, the odds of moderate and severe disabilities were higher among participants with multimorbidity comprising hypertension, abdominal obesity, diabetes, cataract and arthritis [aOR = 3.0; 95% CI 1.6 to 5.6], and those with angina, chronic lung disease, asthma and depression [aOR = 2.7; 95% CI 1.6 to 4.5]. Conclusions: Cardiometabolic diseases among older persons in Ghana and South Africa cluster in distinct multimorbidity patterns that are significant predictors of functional disabilities. This evidence may be useful for defining disability prevention strategies and long-term care for older persons living with or at risk of cardiometabolic multimorbidity in sub-Saharan Africa.

Background: Uganda’s community health worker (CHW) program experiences several challenges related to the appropriate motivation, job satisfaction, and performance of the CHW workforce. This study aims to identify barriers in the effective implementation of financial and non-financial incentives to support CHWs and to strengthen Uganda’s CHW program. Methods: The study was implemented in Uganda’s Lira, Wakiso, and Mayuge districts in May 2019. Ten focus group discussions (FGDs) were held with 91 CHWs, 17 in-depth interviews (IDIs) were held with CHW supervisors, and 7 IDIs were held with policy-level stakeholders. Participants included stakeholders from both the Ugandan government and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Utilizing a thematic approach, themes around motivation, job satisfaction, incentive preferences, and CHW relationships with the community, healthcare facilities, and government were analyzed. Results: CHWs identified a range of factors that contributed to their motivation or demotivation. Non-monetary factors included recognition from the health system and community, access to transportation, methods for identification as a healthcare worker, provision of working tools, and training opportunities. Monetary factors included access to monthly stipends, transportation-related refunds, and timely payment systems to reduce refund delays to CHWs. Additionally, CHWs indicated wanting to be considered for recruitment into the now-halted rollout of a salaried CHW cadre, given the provision of payment. Conclusion: It is imperative to consider how to best support the current CHW program prior to the introduction of new cadres, as it can serve to exacerbate tensions between cadres and further undermine provision of community health. Providing a harmonized, balanced, and uniform combination of both monetary incentives with non-monetary incentives is vital for effective CHW programs.

BackgroundCommunity health volunteers (CHVs) play crucial roles in enabling access to healthcare at the community levels. Although CHVs are considered volunteers, programmes provide financial and non-financial incentives. However, there is limited evidence on which bundle of financial and non-financial incentives are most effective for their improved performance.MethodsWe used a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to understand incentive preferences of CHVs with the aim to improve their motivation, performance and retention. Relevant incentive attributes were identified through qualitative interviews with CHVs and with their supervisors. We then deployed a nominal group technique to generate and rank preferred attributes among CHVs. We developed a DCE based on the five attributes and administered it to 211 CHVs in Kilifi and Bungoma counties in Kenya. We used mixed multinomial logit models to estimate the utility of each incentive attribute and calculated the trade-offs the CHWs were willing to make for a change in stipend.ResultsTransport was considered the incentive attribute with most relative importance followed by tools of trade then monthly stipend. CHVs preferred job incentives that offered higher monthly stipends even though it was not the most important. They had negative preference for job incentives that provided award mechanisms for the best performing CHVs as compared with jobs that provided recognition at the community level and preferred job incentives that provided more tools of trade compared with those that provided limited tools.ConclusionA bundled incentive of both financial and non-financial packages is necessary to provide a conducive working environment for CHVs. The menu of options relevant for CHVs in Kenya include transport, tools of trade and monthly stipend. Policy decisions should be contextualised to include these attributes to facilitate CHW satisfaction and performance.

The government of Kenya has launched a phased rollout of COVID-19 vaccination. A major barrier is vaccine hesitancy; the refusal or delay of accepting vaccination. This study evaluated the level and determinants of vaccine hesitancy in Kenya. We conducted a cross-sectional study administered through a phone-based survey in February 2021 in four counties of Kenya. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify individual perceived risks and influences, context-specific factors, and vaccine-specific issues associated with COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in Kenya was high: 60.1%. Factors associated with vaccine hesitancy included: older age, lower education level, perceived difficulty in adhering to government regulations on COVID-19 prevention, less adherence to wearing of face masks, not having ever been tested for COVID-19, no reported socio-economic loss as a result of COVID public-health restriction measures, and concerns regarding vaccine safety and effectiveness. There is a need for the prioritization of interventions to address vaccine hesitancy and improve vaccine confidence as part of the vaccine roll-out plan. These messaging and/or interventions should be holistic to include the value of other public health measures, be focused and targeted to specific groups, raise awareness on the risks of COVID-19 and effectively communicate the benefits and risks of vaccines.

Background In resource-constrained settings, Community Health Workers (CHWs) are the first point of contact between communities and the health system, as providers of maternal and newborn health services. However, little is known of the quality of community-based postnatal care (PNC). We assessed the content of PNC provided by CHWs and women's experiences of care in two Kenyan counties. Methods We used a cross-sectional, mixed methods design to examine the quality of PNC services provided by CHWs. Trained observers attended PNC home visits to assess technical quality using a 25-item checklist covering four PNC domains: infant health warning signs, maternal health warning signs, essential newborn care, and breastfeeding. The observers completed an 8-item communication quality checklist. We conducted follow-up surveys with observed PNC clients to assess their experiences of care. Finally, we used in-depth interviews with CHWs and focus group discussions with observed PNC clients to understand the experiential quality of care. Results Observations suggest shortcomings in the technical quality of PNC home visits. CHWs completed an average of 6.4 (standard deviation SD = 4.1) of the 25 PNC technical quality items. CHWs often lacked essential supplies, and only six percent carried all four of the CHW job aids and tools specified in the national guidelines for maternal health at community level. However, CHWs completed an average of 7.3 (SD = 1.1) of the 8 communication quality items, and most PNC clients (88%) reported being satisfied during follow-up interviews. Higher technical quality scores were associated with older mothers, better communication, longer visit duration, and CHWs who carried at least three job tools. CHWs expressed a strong sense of responsibility for care of their clients, while clients underscored how CHWs were trusted to maintain their clients' confidentiality and were a valuable community resource. Conclusion This study identified gaps in the technical quality of CHW PNC practices, while also recognizing positive elements of experiential quality of care, including communication quality, and trusting relationships. This study also demonstrated the strength of the CHWs' role in establishing linkages between the community and facilities, as long as the CHW are perceived as, and enabled to be, an integral part of the PHC network in Kenya.

Measures to mitigate COVID-19's impact may inhibit development of healthy youth relationships, affecting partnership quality and sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes.We conducted a mixed-methods study to understand how COVID-19 affected girls' and young women's relationships in Kenya. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression examined factors associated with relationship quality dynamics and SRH outcomes among 756 partnered adolescents aged 15-24 years. Qualitative data from in-depth interviews were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis to explore youth perceptions of how intimate relationships changed during COVID-19.Nearly three-quarters of youth described changes in relationship quality since COVID-19 began, with 24% reporting worsening. Reduced time with partners was the strongest predictor of changed relationship quality. Youth experiencing complete or partial COVID-19-related household income loss had heightened risk of deteriorating partnerships (relative risk ratio = 2.43 and 2.02; p.05); those whose relationships worsened were more likely to experience recent intimate partner violence, relative to no relationship change (20.8% vs. 3.5%; p.001). Qualitative analysis revealed how COVID-19 mitigation measures hindered intimate relationships, school closures accelerated marriage timelines, and economic hardships strained relationships, while increasing early pregnancy risk and girls' financial dependency on their partners.COVID-19 disrupted adolescent girls' and young women's romantic relationships, depriving some of partner emotional support and exposing others to sexual violence, early pregnancy, and economically motivated transactional relationships. Increased social support systems, including access to psychosocial services, are needed in low-income communities in Kilifi, Kisumu, and Nairobi, in particular the informal settlement areas, to mitigate COVID-19's consequences on girls' SRH.

Background Community health workers (CHWs) play a critical role in supporting health systems, and in improving the availability and accessibility to health care. However, CHW programs globally continue to face challenges with poor performance and high levels of CHW attrition. CHW programs are often underfunded and poorly planned, which can lead to loss of motivation by CHWs. The study aims to determine preferences of CHWs for job incentives with the goal of furthering their motivation and success. Methods Relevant incentive attributes were identified through focus group discussions and in-depth interviews with CHWs, non-governmental organization CHWs, CHW supervisors, and policy-level stakeholders. Based on seven attributes (eg, training, workload, stipend) we developed a discrete choice experiment (DCE) that was administered to 399 CHWs across eight districts in Uganda. We used conditional and mixed multinomial logit models to estimate the utility of each job attribute. We calculated the marginal willingness to accept as the trade-off the CHWs were willing to make for a change in salary. Results CHWs preferred higher salaries, though salary was not the most important attribute. There was a preference for reliable transportation, such as a bicycle (β = 1.86, 95% CI = 1.06, 2.67), motorcycle (β = 1.81, 95% CI = 1.27, 2.34) or transport allowance (β = 1.37, 95% CI = 0.65, 2.10) to no transport. Formal identification including identity badges (β = 1.61, 95% CI = 0.72, 2.49), branded uniforms (β = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.45, 1.63) and protective branded gear (β = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.32, 1.21) were preferred compared to no identification. CHWs also preferred more regular refresher trainings, the use of mobile phones as job-aids and a lesser workload. The relative importance estimates suggested that transport was the most important attribute, followed by identification, refresher training, salary, workload, recognition, and availability of tools. CHWs were willing to accept a decrease in salary of USH 31 240 (US$8.5) for identity badges, and a decrease of USH85 300 (US$23) for branded uniforms to no identification. Conclusions This study utilized CHW and policymaker perspectives to identify realistic and pragmatic incentives to improve CHW working conditions, which is instrumental in improving their retention. Non-monetary incentives (eg, identification, transportation) are crucial motivators for CHWs and should be considered as part of the compensation package to facilitate improved performance of CHW programs.

ObjectivesCOVID-19 may spread rapidly in densely populated urban informal settlements. Kenya swiftly implemented mitigation policies; we assess the economic, social and health-related harm disproportionately impacting women.DesignA prospective longitudinal cohort study with repeated mobile phone surveys in April, May and June 2020.Participants and setting2009 households across five informal settlements in Nairobi, sampled from two previously interviewed cohorts.Primary and secondary outcome measuresOutcomes include food insecurity, risk of household violence and forgoing necessary health services due to the pandemic. Gender-stratified linear probability regression models were constructed to determine the factors associated with these outcomes.ResultsBy May, more women than men reported adverse effects of COVID-19 mitigation policies on their lives. Women were 6 percentage points more likely to skip a meal versus men (coefficient: 0.055; 95% CI 0.016 to 0.094), and those who had completely lost their income were 15 percentage points more likely versus those employed (coefficient: 0.154; 95% CI 0.125 to 0.184) to skip a meal. Compared with men, women were 8 percentage points more likely to report increased risk of household violence (coefficient: 0.079; 95% CI 0.028 to 0.130) and 6 percentage points more likely to forgo necessary healthcare (coefficient: 0.056; 95% CI 0.037 to 0.076).ConclusionsThe pandemic rapidly and disproportionately impacted the lives of women. As Kenya reopens, policymakers must deploy assistance to ensure women in urban informal settlements are able to return to work, and get healthcare and services they need to not lose progress on gender equity made to date.

Nairobi’s urban slums are ill equipped to prevent spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) due to high population density, multigenerational families in poorly ventilated informal housing, and poor sanitation. Physical distancing policies, curfews, and a citywide lockdown were implemented in March and April 2020 resulting in sharp decreases in movement across the city. However, most people cannot afford to stay home completely (e.g., leaving daily to fetch water). If still employed, they may need to travel longer distances for work, potentially exposing them COVID-19 or contributing to its spread. We conducted a household survey across five urban slums to describe factors associated with mobility in the previous 24 h. A total of 1695 adults were interviewed, 63% female. Of these, most reported neighborhood mobility within their informal settlement (54%), 19% stayed home completely, and 27% reported long-distance mobility outside their informal settlement, mainly for work. In adjusted multinomial regression models, women were 58% more likely than men to stay home (relative risk ratio (RRR): 1.58, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 2.14) and women were 60% less likely than men to report citywide mobility (RRR: 0.40; 95% CI 0.31, 0.52). Individuals in the wealthiest quintile, particularly younger women, were most likely to not leave home at all. Those who reported citywide travel were less likely to have lost employment (RRR: 0.49; 95% CI 0.38, 0.65) and were less likely to avoid public transportation (RRR: 0.30; 95% CI 0.23, 0.39). Employment and job hunting were the main reasons for traveling outside of the slum; less than 20% report other reasons. Our findings suggest that slum residents who retain their employment are traveling larger distances across Nairobi, using public transportation, and are more likely to be male; this travel may put them at higher risk of COVID-19 infection but is necessary to maintain income. Steps to protect workers from COVID-19 both in the workplace and while in transit (including masks, hand sanitizer stations, and reduced capacity on public transportation) are critical as economic insecurity in the city increases due to COVID-19 mitigation measures. Workers must be able to commute and maintain employment to not be driven further into poverty. Additionally, to protect the majority of individuals who are only travelling locally within their settlement, mitigation measures such as making masks and handwashing stations accessible within informal settlements must also be implemented, with special attention to the burden placed on women.

BackgroundMany low- and middle-income countries have implemented control measures against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, it is not clear to what extent these measures explain the low numbers of recorded COVID-19 cases and deaths in Africa. One of the main aims of control measures is to reduce respiratory pathogen transmission through direct contact with others. In this study we collect contact data from residents of informal settlements around Nairobi, Kenya to assess if control measures have changed contact patterns, and estimate the impact of changes on the basic reproduction number (R0).MethodsWe conducted a social contact survey with 213 residents of five informal settlements around Nairobi in early May 2020, four weeks after the Kenyan government introduced enhanced physical distancing measures and a curfew between 7pm and 5am. Respondents were asked to report all direct physical and non-physical contacts made the previous day, alongside a questionnaire asking about the social and economic impact of COVID-19 and control measures. We examined contact patterns by demographic factors, including socioeconomic status. We described the impact of COVID-19 and control measures on income and food security. We compared contact patterns during control measures to patterns from non-pandemic periods to estimate the change in R0.FindingsWe estimate that control measures reduced physical and non-physical contacts, reducing the R0 from around 2.6 to between 0.5 and 0.7, depending on the pre-COVID-19 comparison matrix used. Masks were worn by at least one person in 92% of contacts. Respondents in the poorest socioeconomic quintile reported 1.5 times more contacts than those in the richest. 86% of respondents reported a total or partial loss of income due to COVID-19, and 74% reported eating less or skipping meals due to having too little money for food.InterpretationCOVID-19 control measures have had a large impact on direct contacts and therefore transmission, but have also caused considerable economic and food insecurity. Reductions in R0 are consistent with the linear epidemic growth in Kenya and other sub-Saharan African countries that implemented similar, early control measures. However, negative and inequitable impacts on economic and food security may mean control measures are not sustainable in the longer term.Research in contextEvidence before this studyWe conducted a PubMed search on 6 June 2020 with no language restrictions for studies published since inception, using the search terms (“social mix*” OR “social cont*” OR “contact pattern*) AND (“covid*”). The search yielded 53 articles, two of which reported changes in social contacts after COVID-19 control measures. The first study reported changes in contact patterns in Wuhan and Shanghai, and the second changes in contact patterns in the UK. We found no studies examining changes in contact patterns due to control measures in sub-Saharan Africa, and no studies disaggregating contacts by socioeconomic status.Added value of this studyThis is the first study to estimate the reproduction number of COVID-19 under control measures in sub-Saharan Africa using primary contact data. This study also moves beyond existing work to i) measure contacts in densely populated informal settlements, ii) explore how social contacts vary across socioeconomic status, and iii) assess the impact of control measures on economic and food security in these areas.Implications of all the evidenceCOVID-19 control measures have substantially reduced social contacts and disease transmission. People of lower socioeconomic status face greater transmission risk as they report more contacts. Control measures have led to considerable economic and food insecurity, and may not be sustainable in the long term without efforts to reduce the burden of control measures on households.

Background: COVID-19 mitigation measures have major ramifications on all aspects of people’s livelihoods. Based on data collected in February 2021, we present an analysis of the socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 mitigation measures in three counties in Kenya.Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional phone-based survey in three counties in Kenya to assess the level of disruption across seven domains: income, food insecurity, schooling, domestic tension/violence, communal violence, mental health, and decision-making. An overall disruption index was computed from the seven domains using principal component analysis. We used a linear regression model to examine the determinants of vulnerability to disruptions as measured by the index. We used concentration curves and indices to assess inequality in the disruption domains and the overall disruption index.Results: The level of disruption in income was the highest (74%), while the level of disruption for domestic tension/violence was the lowest (30%). Factors associated with increased vulnerability to the overall disruption index included: older age, being married, belonging in the lowest socio-economic tertile and receiving COVID-19 related assistance. The concentration curves showed that all the seven domains of disruption were disproportionately concentrated among households in the lowest socio-economic tertile, a finding that was supported by the concentration index of the overall disruption index (CI = - 0.022; p = 0.074).Conclusion: The COVID-19 mitigation measures resulted in unintended socio-economic effects that unfairly affected certain vulnerable groups, including those in the lowest socio-economic group and the elderly. Measures to protect households against the adverse socio-economic effects of the pandemic should be scaled up and targeted to the most vulnerable, with attention to the constantly evolving nature of the pandemic.

Background: Central to the successful elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria, are tests with superior capability of diagnosing low-density parasitaemias. Empirical evidence on the performance of the commonly available diagnostics (light microscopy (LM), rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)) is needed to better inform case management and surveillance activities within primary health care settings where elimination of falciparum malaria is targeted. The objective of this study was to estimate the sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) and predictive values of LM, RDT and PCR tests for P. falciparum infection in children, while evaluating the effect of specific covariates on the accuracy of the tests. Methods: The study enrolled 1,563 children presenting with fever (axillary temperature ≥ 37.50C) to the Ngerenya dispensary, Kilifi County between March and December 2014. A Bayesian latent class model (BLCM) was fitted to the participants’ diagnostic data obtained from blood samples that were screened for the presence of P. falciparum using the three tests. Results: The PCR assay registered a higher Se (97.6% [92.0; 99.7]) than LM (84.0% [74.8; 91.0]) but similar to RDT (92.2% [84.4; 97.0]). However, the assay showed a similar Sp (98.9% [98.2; 99.4]) to both RDT (99.4% [98.9; 99.7]) and LM (99.5% [99.0; 99.8]). Regarding predictive values, the tests yielded statistically similar estimates of positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV). A serial interpretation of the results of RDT and LM raised the PPVs and NPVs to >98%. Conclusions: LM and RDT afford high Se and Sp in symptomatic care-seeking children in this low P. falciparum prevalence setting. A serial combination of the tests assures high PPV and NPV estimates. These elements, coupled with the wide deployment and affordability of the tests, lend the tests useful for guiding clinical care and surveillance activities for P. falciparum within elimination settings.

Background: Central to the successful elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria, are tests with superior capability of diagnosing low-density parasitaemias. Empirical evidence on the performance of the commonly available diagnostics (light microscopy (LM), rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)) is needed to better inform case management and surveillance activities within primary health care settings where elimination of falciparum malaria is targeted. The objective of this study was to estimate the sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) and predictive values of LM, RDT and PCR tests for P. falciparum infection in children, while evaluating the effect of specific covariates on the accuracy of the tests. Methods: The study enrolled 1,563 children presenting with fever (axillary temperature ≥ 37.50C) to the Ngerenya dispensary, Kilifi County between March and December 2014. A Bayesian latent class model (BLCM) was fitted to the participants’ diagnostic data obtained from blood samples that were screened for the presence of P. falciparum using the three tests. Results: The PCR assay registered a higher Se (97.6% [92.0; 99.7]) than LM (84.0% [74.8; 91.0]) but similar to RDT (92.2% [84.4; 97.0]). However, the assay showed a similar Sp (98.9% [98.2; 99.4]) to both RDT (99.4% [98.9; 99.7]) and LM (99.5% [99.0; 99.8]). Regarding predictive values, the tests yielded statistically similar estimates of positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV). A serial interpretation of the results of RDT and LM raised the PPVs and NPVs to >98%. Conclusions: LM and RDT afford high Se and Sp in symptomatic care-seeking children in this low P. falciparum prevalence setting. A serial combination of the tests assures high PPV and NPV estimates. These elements, coupled with the wide deployment and affordability of the tests, lend the tests useful for guiding clinical care and surveillance activities for P. falciparum within elimination settings.

Background Many parts of Africa have witnessed reductions in Plasmodium falciparum transmission over the last 15 years. Since immunity to malaria is acquired more rapidly at higher transmission, the slower acquisition of immunity at lower transmission may partially offset the benefits of reductions in transmission. We examined the clinical spectrum of disease and predictors of mortality after sustained changes in transmission intensity, using data collected from 1989 to 2016. Methods We conducted a temporal observational analysis of 18,000 children, aged 14 days to 14 years old, who were admitted to Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya, from 1989 to 2016 with malaria. We describe the trends over time of the clinical and laboratory criteria for severe malaria and associated risk of mortality. Results During the time periods 1989–2003, 2004–2008, and 2009–2016, Kilifi County Hospital admitted averages of 657, 310, and 174 cases of severe malaria per year including averages of 48, 14, and 12 malaria-associated deaths per year, respectively. The median ages in years of children admitted with cerebral malaria, severe anaemia, and malaria-associated mortality were 3.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2–3.9), 1.1 (95% CI 0.9–1.4), and 1.1 (95% CI 0.3–2.2) in the year 1989, rising to 4.9 (95% CI 3.9–5.9), 3.8 (95% CI 2.5–7.1), and 5 (95% CI 3.3–6.3) in the year 2016. The ratio of children with cerebral malaria to severe anaemia rose from 1:2 before 2004 to 3:2 after 2009. Hyperparasitaemia was a risk factor for death after 2009 but not in earlier time periods. Conclusion Despite the evidence of slower acquisition of immunity, continued reductions in the numbers of cases of severe malaria resulted in lower overall mortality. Our temporal data are limited to a single site, albeit potentially applicable to a secular trend present in many parts of Africa. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12916-019-1359-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background: Interventions to block malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes are currently in development. To be successfully implemented, key populations need to be identified where the use of these transmission-blocking and/or reducing strategies will have greatest impact. Methods: We used data from a longitudinally monitored cohort of children from Kilifi county located along the Kenyan coast collected between 1998-2016 to describe the distribution and prevalence of gametocytaemia in relation to transmission intensity, time and age. Data from 2,223 children accounting for 9,134 person-years of follow-up assessed during cross-sectional surveys for asexual parasites and gametocytes were used in logistic regression models to identify factors predictive of gametocyte carriage in this cohort. Results: Our analysis showed that children 1-5 years of age were more likely to carry microscopically detectable gametocytes than their older counterparts. Carrying asexual parasites and recent episodes of clinical malaria were also strong predictors of gametocyte carriage. The prevalence of asexual parasites and of gametocyte carriage declined over time, and after 2006, when artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) was introduced, recent episodes of clinical malaria ceased to be a predictor of gametocyte carriage. Conclusions: Gametocyte carriage in children in Kilifi has fallen over time. Previous episodes of clinical malaria may contribute to the development of carriage, but this appears to be mitigated by the use of ACTs highlighting the impact that gametocidal antimalarials can have in reducing the overall prevalence of gametocytaemia when targeted on acute febrile illness.

Background: Central to the successful elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria, are tests with superior capability of diagnosing low-density parasitaemias. Empirical evidence on the performance of the commonly available diagnostics (light microscopy (LM), rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)) is needed to better inform case management and surveillance activities within primary health care settings where elimination of falciparum malaria is targeted. The objective of this study was to estimate the sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) and predictive values of LM, RDT and PCR tests for P. falciparum infection in children, while evaluating the effect of specific covariates on the accuracy of the tests. Methods: The study enrolled 1,563 children presenting with fever (axillary temperature ≥ 37.5 0C) to the Ngerenya dispensary, Kilifi County between March and December 2014. A Bayesian latent class model (BLCM) was fitted to the participants’ diagnostic data obtained from blood samples that were screened for the presence of P. falciparum using the three tests. Results: The PCR assay registered a higher Se (97.6% [92.0; 99.7]) than LM (84.0% [74.8; 91.0]) but similar to RDT (92.2% [84.4; 97.0]). However, the assay showed a similar Sp (98.9% [98.2; 99.4]) to both RDT (99.4% [98.9; 99.7]) and LM (99.5% [99.0; 99.8]). Regarding predictive values, the tests yielded statistically similar estimates of positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV). A serial interpretation of the results of RDT and LM raised the PPVs and NPVs to >98%. Conclusions: LM and RDT afford high Se and Sp in symptomatic care-seeking children in this low P. falciparum prevalence setting. A serial combination of the tests assures high PPV and NPV estimates. These elements, coupled with the wide deployment and affordability of the tests, lend the tests useful for guiding clinical care and surveillance activities for P. falciparum within elimination settings.

Background: Interventions to block malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes are currently in development. To be successfully implemented, key populations need to be identified where the use of these transmission-blocking and/or reducing strategies will have greatest impact. Methods: We used data from a longitudinally monitored cohort of children from Kilifi county located along the Kenyan coast collected between 1998-2016 to describe the distribution and prevalence of gametocytaemia in relation to transmission intensity, time and age. Data from 2,223 children accounting for 9,134 person-years of follow-up assessed during cross-sectional surveys for asexual parasites and gametocytes were used in logistic regression models to identify factors predictive of gametocyte carriage in this cohort. Results: Our analysis showed that children 1-5 years of age were more likely to carry microscopically detectable gametocytes than their older counterparts. Carrying asexual parasites and recent episodes of clinical malaria were also strong predictors of gametocyte carriage. The prevalence of asexual parasites and of gametocyte carriage declined over time, and after 2006, when artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) was introduced, recent episodes of clinical malaria ceased to be a predictor of gametocyte carriage. Conclusions: Gametocyte carriage in children in Kilifi has fallen over time. Previous episodes of clinical malaria may contribute to the development of carriage, but this appears to be mitigated by the use of ACTs highlighting the impact that gametocidal antimalarials can have in reducing the overall prevalence of gametocytaemia when targeted on acute febrile illness.