1. The probability for landslides and rockfall in the German low mountain regions under climate change conditions
- Author
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Nissen, Katrin, Wilde, Martina, Kreuzer, Thomas, Damm, Bodo, and Ulbrich, Uwe
- Abstract
The influence of meteorological (pre-) condition on landslide and rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is assessed. The landslide events analysed for this study are taken from the landslide database for Germany (Damm and Klose, 2015) and from an event inventory from the German railway company (Deutsche Bahn). For each of the hazards a logistic regression model was developed which considers the combined (compound) effect of the most important meteorological triggers. The most relevant variables identified and included in the model for landslides are daily precipitation, frost, snowmelt and a soil moisture proxy determined from accumulated precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The model for rockfall takes daily precipitation, freeze-thaw cycles and a cleft water proxy into account.The climate change signal is determined by applying the statistical models to the output of a multi-model ensemble of 23 EURO-CORDEX regional climate scenario simulations. When comparing the periods 1971-2000 and 2071-2100, it is found that the probability for rockfall would decrease under RCP8.5 scenario conditions by up to 10% while the probability for landslides would increase by up to 30%. Although the probability for both hazards peaks in summer, the projected changes are strongest in winter and related to a decrease in the number of freeze-thaw cycles and days with frost. The study demonstrates that for this type of application, it is essential to consider all climatic factors that promote or suppress hillslope failure together, as they can reinforce or cancel each other., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)
- Published
- 2023