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Different research communities have developed various approaches to assess the credibility of predictive models. Each approach usually works well for a specific type of model, and under some epistemic conditions that are normally satisfied within that specific research domain. Some regulatory agencies recently started to consider evidences of safety and efficacy on new medical products obtained using computer modelling and simulation (which is referred to as In Silico Trials); this has raised the attention in the computational medicine research community on the regulatory science aspects of this emerging discipline. But this poses a foundational problem: in the domain of biomedical research the use of computer modelling is relatively recent, without a widely accepted epistemic framing for problem of model credibility. Also, because of the inherent complexity of living organisms, biomedical modellers tend to use a variety of modelling methods, sometimes mixing them in the solution of a single problem. In such context merely adopting credibility approaches developed within other research community might not be appropriate. In this position paper we propose a theoretical framing for the problem of assessing the credibility of a predictive models for In Silico Trials, which accounts for the epistemic specificity of this research field and is general enough to be used for different type of models., 11 pages

Pathologies such as cancer metastasis and osteoporosis strongly affect the mechanical properties of the vertebral bone and increase the risk of fragility fractures. The prediction of the fracture risk with a patient-specific model, directly generated from the diagnostic images of the patient, could help the clinician in the choice of the correct therapy to follow. But before such models can be used to support any clinical decision, their credibility must be demonstrated through verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification. In this study we describe a procedure for the generation of such patient-specific finite element models and present a first validation of the kinematics of the spine segment. Quantitative computed tomography images of a cadaveric lumbar spine segment presenting vertebral metastatic lesions were used to generate the model. The applied boundary conditions replicated a specific experimental test where the spine segment was loaded in compression-flexion. Model predictions in terms of vertebral surface displacements were compared against the full-field experimental displacements measured with Digital Image Correlation. A good agreement was obtained from the local comparison between experimental data and simulation results (R2 > 0.9 and RMSE%