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Glacier mass loss affects sea level rise, water resources, and natural hazards. We present global glacier projections, excluding the ice sheets, for shared socioeconomic pathways calibrated with data for each glacier. Glaciers are projected to lose 26 ± 6% (+1.5°C) to 41 ± 11% (+4°C) of their mass by 2100, relative to 2015, for global temperature change scenarios. This corresponds to 90 ± 26 to 154 ± 44 millimeters sea level equivalent and will cause 49 ± 9 to 83 ± 7% of glaciers to disappear. Mass loss is linearly related to temperature increase and thus reductions in temperature increase reduce mass loss. Based on climate pledges from the Conference of the Parties (COP26), global mean temperature is projected to increase by +2.7°C, which would lead to a sea level contribution of 115 ± 40 millimeters and cause widespread deglaciation in most mid-latitude regions by 2100. ISSN:0036-8075 ISSN:1095-9203

In the Northern Hemisphere, ~1500 glaciers, accounting for 28% of glacierized area outside the Greenland Ice Sheet, terminate in the ocean. Glacier mass loss at their ice-ocean interface, known as frontal ablation, has not yet been comprehensively quantified. Here, we estimate decadal frontal ablation from measurements of ice discharge and terminus position change from 2000 to 2020. We bias-correct and cross-validate estimates and uncertainties using independent sources. Frontal ablation of marine-terminating glaciers contributed an average of 44.47 ± 6.23 Gt a−1 of ice to the ocean from 2000 to 2010, and 51.98 ± 4.62 Gt a−1 from 2010 to 2020. Ice discharge from 2000 to 2020 was equivalent to 2.10 ± 0.22 mm of sea-level rise and comprised approximately 79% of frontal ablation, with the remainder from terminus retreat. Near-coastal areas most impacted include Austfonna, Svalbard, and central Severnaya Zemlya, the Russian Arctic, and a few Alaskan fjords., Nature Communications, 13, ISSN:2041-1723

Marine-terminating glaciers in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago have retreated in response to atmospheric, not oceanic, warming., The Canadian Arctic Archipelago contains >300 glaciers that terminate in the ocean, but little is known about changes in their frontal positions in response to recent changes in the ocean-climate system. Here, we examine changes in glacier frontal positions since the 1950s and investigate the relative influence of oceanic temperature versus atmospheric temperature. Over 94% of glaciers retreated between 1958 and 2015, with a region-wide trend of gradual retreat before ~2000, followed by a fivefold increase in retreat rates up to 2015. Retreat patterns show no correlation with changes in subsurface ocean temperatures, in clear contrast to the dominance of ocean forcing in western Greenland and elsewhere. Rather, significant correlations with surface melt indicate that increased atmospheric temperature has been the primary driver of the acceleration in marine-terminating glacier frontal retreat in this region.

Short-term iceberg drift prediction is challenging. Large uncertainties in the driving forces – current, wind and waves – usually prevent accurate forecasts. Recently several statistical iceberg forecast models have been proposed by the authors, which use iceberg position measurements to improve the short-term drift forecast. In this article these statistical forecast methods and models are briefly reviewed. An extensive comparison between the statistical models, in addition to a dynamic iceberg forecast model, is performed on several iceberg drift trajectories. Based on this comparison a new statistical forecast scheme is proposed that combines some of the advantages of the other methods.

We use Structure from Motion software to generate a new digital elevation model (DEM) of White Glacier, Axel Heiberg Island, Nunavut, using >400 oblique aerial photographs collected in July 2014. Spatially and radiometrically high-resolution imagery, optimized camera settings, low angle lighting conditions, and photo post-processing methods together supported the detection of small but distinct features on the surface of the snowpack and enabled feature matching during the image correlation process. The resulting DEM and orthoimage facilitated the production of a new 1:10,000 topographic map with 5 m vertical accuracy in the style of earlier cartographic works of White Glacier dating back to 1960. The new map of White Glacier will support calculation of the glacier's geodetic mass balance (mass change determined from ice volume change over the past 54 years) and provides an updated glacier hypsometry (area-elevation distribution) that will improve the accuracy of future mass balance calculations.

We use Structure from Motion software to generate a new digital elevation model (DEM) of White Glacier, Axel Heiberg Island, Nunavut, using >400 oblique aerial photographs collected in July 2014. Spatially and radiometrically high-resolution imagery, optimized camera settings, low angle lighting conditions, and photo post-processing methods together supported the detection of small but distinct features on the surface of the snowpack and enabled feature matching during the image correlation process. The resulting DEM and orthoimage facilitated the production of a new 1:10,000 topographic map with 5 m vertical accuracy in the style of earlier cartographic works of White Glacier dating back to 1960. The new map of White Glacier will support calculation of the glacier's geodetic mass balance (mass change determined from ice volume change over the past 54 years) and provides an updated glacier hypsometry (area-elevation distribution) that will improve the accuracy of future mass balance calculations.