Search

Near Earth Objects (NEOs) are a transient population of small bodies with orbits near or in the terrestrial planet region. They represent a mid-stage in the dynamical cycle of asteroids and comets, which starts with their removal from the respective source regions -- the main belt and trans-Neptunian scattered disk -- and ends as bodies impact planets, disintegrate near the Sun, or are ejected from the Solar System. Here we develop a new orbital model of NEOs by numerically integrating asteroid orbits from main belt sources and calibrating the results on observations of the Catalina Sky Survey. The results imply a size-dependent sampling of the main belt with the $\nu_6$ and 3:1 resonances producing $\simeq 30$\% of NEOs with absolute magnitudes $H = 15$ and $\simeq 80$\% of NEOs with $H = 25$. Hence, the large and small NEOs have different orbital distributions. The inferred flux of $H2.5$~au, both in the immediate neighborhood of the resonance (the same applies to other resonances as well). We confirm the size-dependent disruption of asteroids near the Sun found in previous studies. An interested researcher can use the publicly available NEOMOD Simulator to generate user-defined samples of NEOs from our model., Comment: AJ

We overview various efforts within the DART Investigation Team's Ejecta Working Group to predict the characteristics, quantity, dynamical behavior, and observability of DART impact ejecta. We discuss various methodologies for simulation of the impact/cratering process with their advantages and drawbacks in relation to initializing ejecta for subsequent dynamical propagation through and away from the Didymos system. We discuss the most relevant forces acting on ejecta once decoupled from Dimorphos's surface and highlight various software packages we have developed and used to dynamically simulate ejecta under the action of those forces. With some additional software packages, we explore the influence of additional perturbing effects, such as interparticle collisions within true N-body codes and nonspherical and rotating particles' interplay with solar radiation pressure. We find that early-timescale and close-proximity ejecta evolution is highly sensitive to some of these effects (e.g., collisions) while relatively insensitive to other factors. We present a methodology for turning the time-evolving size- and spatially discretized number density field output from ejecta simulations into synthetic images for multiple platforms/cameras over wide-ranging vantage points and timescales. We present such simulated images and apply preliminary analyses to them for nominal and off-nominal cases bracketing realistic total mass of ejecta and ejecta cumulative size–frequency distribution slope. Our analyses foreshadow the information content we may be able to extract from the actual images taken during and after the DART encounter by both LICIACube and Earth-vicinity telescopes. This work was supported in part by the DART mission, NASA contract No. 80MSFC20D0004 to JHU/APL. Some of this work was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004). P.M., S.D.R., and Y.Z. acknowledge funding support from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 870377 (project NEO-MAPP). P.M. acknowledges funding support from the French space agency CNES. F.F. acknowledges funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) Ambizione grant No. 193346. S.R.S. acknowledges support from the DART Participating Scientist Program, grant no. 80NSSC22K0318. A.R. and S.I. acknowledge financial support from the Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI; contract No. 2019-31-HH.0 CUP F84I190012600). A.C.B. acknowledges funding support from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 870377 (project NEO-MAPP) and the Spanish MICINN RTI2018-099464-B-I00.

Data for Scientific Manuscript

Orbit-determination programs find the orbit solution that best fits a set of observations by minimizing the RMS of the residuals of the fit. For near-Earth asteroids, the uncertainty of the orbit solution may be compatible with trajectories that impact Earth. This paper shows how incorporating the impact condition as an observation in the orbit-determination process results in a robust technique for finding the regions in parameter space leading to impacts. The impact pseudo-observation residuals are the b-plane coordinates at the time of close approach and the uncertainty is set to a fraction of the Earth radius. The extended orbit-determination filter converges naturally to an impacting solution if allowed by the observations. The uncertainty of the resulting orbit provides an excellent geometric representation of the virtual impactor. As a result, the impact probability can be efficiently estimated by exploring this region in parameter space using importance sampling. The proposed technique can systematically handle a large number of estimated parameters, account for nongravitational forces, deal with nonlinearities, and correct for non-Gaussian initial uncertainty distributions. The algorithm has been implemented into a new impact monitoring system at JPL called Sentry-II, which is undergoing extensive testing. The main advantages of Sentry-II over JPL's currently operating impact monitoring system Sentry are that Sentry-II can systematically process orbits perturbed by nongravitational forces and that it is generally more robust when dealing with pathological cases. The runtimes and completeness of both systems are comparable, with the impact probability of Sentry-II for 99% completeness being $3\times10^{-7}$., 19 pages, 13 figures. To be published in the Astronomical Journal

Making an inventory of the Solar System is one of the four fundamental science requirements for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). The current baseline footprint for LSST's main Wide-Fast-Deep (WFD) Survey observes the sky below 0$^\circ$ declination, which includes only half of the ecliptic plane. Critically, key Solar System populations are asymmetrically distributed on the sky: they will be entirely missed, or only partially mapped, if only the WFD occurs. We propose a Northern Ecliptic Spur (NES) mini survey, observing the northern sky up to +10$^\circ$ ecliptic latitude, to maximize Solar System science with LSST. The mini survey comprises a total area of $\sim$5800 deg$^2$/604 fields, with 255 observations/field over the decade, split between g,r, and z bands. Our proposed survey will 1) obtain a census of main-belt comets; 2) probe Neptune's past migration history, by exploring the resonant structure of the Kuiper belt and the Neptune Trojan population; 3) explore the origin of Inner Oort cloud objects and place significant constraints on the existence of a hypothesized planet beyond Neptune; and 4) enable precise predictions of KBO stellar occultations. These high-ranked science goals of the Solar System Science Collaboration are only achievable with this proposed northern survey., White Paper submitted in response to the Call for LSST Cadence Optimization White Papers

This memorandum contains describes the results of a post-deflection impact risk assessment (PDIRA) of the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART, e.g., Cheng et al. 2016). DART is a mission concept intended to demonstrate the change of the state of motion of an asteroid through a kinetic impact. By targeting the satellite of the near-Earth asteroid 65803 Didymos in October 2022, DART would alter the orbital period of the binary asteroid system. Measurements of the change in the mutual orbital period of the binary system would inform kinetic impactor based deflection techniques. The DART impact would also result in a change of Didymos’ orbit around the sun. Didymos is a near Earth object and classified as potentially hazardous asteroid (PHA). This document addresses concerns about planetary safety that may arise as a result of DART altering the heliocentric orbit of Didymos. To this end, we performed a PDIRA based on a statistical evaluation of the effect that DART is likely to have on Didymos’ heliocentric orbit. Our results indicate that DART would not significantly alter the probability of the Didymos system to collide with the Earth within the next 150 years. The closest encounter between Didymos and our planet in the next one and a half centuries will occur in 2123 where Didymos has less than a one in a trillion chance to come within 15 lunar distances (roughly 5.9 million kilometers or 3.6 million miles) of the Earth.

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is uniquely equipped to search for Solar System bodies due to its unprecedented combination of depth and wide field coverage. Over a ten-year period starting in 2022, LSST will generate the largest catalog of Solar System objects to date. The main goal of the LSST Solar System Science Collaboration (SSSC) is to facilitate the efforts of the planetary community to study the planets and small body populations residing within our Solar System using LSST data. To prepare for future survey cadence decisions and ensure that interesting and novel Solar System science is achievable with LSST, the SSSC has identified and prioritized key Solar System research areas for investigation with LSST in this roadmap. The ranked science priorities highlighted in this living document will inform LSST survey cadence decisions and aid in identifying software tools and pipelines needed to be developed by the planetary community as added value products and resources before the planned start of LSST science operations., 7 pages; Feedback welcome

Although the final observations of the Spitzer Warm Mission are currently scheduled for March 2019, it can continue operations through the end of the decade with no loss of photometric precision. As we will show, there is a strong science case for extending the current Warm Mission to December 2020. Spitzer has already made major impacts in the fields of exoplanets (including microlensing events), characterizing near Earth objects, enhancing our knowledge of nearby stars and brown dwarfs, understanding the properties and structure of our Milky Way galaxy, and deep wide-field extragalactic surveys to study galaxy birth and evolution. By extending Spitzer through 2020, it can continue to make ground-breaking discoveries in those fields, and provide crucial support to the NASA flagship missions JWST and WFIRST, as well as the upcoming TESS mission, and it will complement ground-based observations by LSST and the new large telescopes of the next decade. This scientific program addresses NASA's Science Mission Directive's objectives in astrophysics, which include discovering how the universe works, exploring how it began and evolved, and searching for life on planets around other stars., 75 pages. See page 3 for Table of Contents and page 4 for Executive Summary

This report describes the methodology and results of an assessment study of the performance of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) in its planned efforts to detect and catalog near-Earth objects (NEOs). The baseline LSST survey approach is designed to make only two visits to a given field in a given night, leading to two possible NEO detections per night. These nightly pairs must be linked across nights to derive orbits of moving objects. However, the presence of false detections in the data stream leads to the possibility of high rates of false tracklets, and the ensuing risk that the resulting orbit catalog may be contaminated by false orbits. To understand the challenges stemming from a two-visit-per-night cadence, we conducted high-fidelity linkage tests on a full-density simulated LSST detection stream. We also sought to quantify the overall performance of LSST as an NEO discovery system under the hypothesis that detections from the baseline cadence can be successfully linked. Our simulations revealed that in 10 years LSST would catalog ~60% of NEOs with absolute magnitude H

Executive Summary This report describes the methodology and results of an assessment study of the performance of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) in its planned efforts to detect and catalog near-Earth objects (NEOs). LSST is a major, joint effort of the US National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy, with significant support from private donors. The project has a number of key science goals, and among them is the objective of cataloging the solar system, including NEOs. LSST is designed for rapid, wide-field, faint surveying of the night sky, and thus has an 8.4m primary mirror, with 3.2 Gigapixels covering a 9.5 deg2 field of view. The system is projected to reach a faint limit of V ≃ 25 in a 30-second exposure visit to a given field and perform nearly 2.5 million visits in its 10-year survey. The baseline LSST survey approach is designed to make two visits to a given field in a given night, leading to two possible NEO detections per night. These nightly pairs must be linked across nights to derive orbits of moving objects. However, the presence of false detections in the data stream leads to the possibility of high rates of false tracklets, and the ensuing risk that the resulting orbit catalog may be contaminated by false orbits. NEO surveys to date have successfully eliminated this risk by making 3–5 visits per night to obtain confirming detections so that the single-night string of detections has a high reliability. The traditional approach is robust, at the expense of reduced sky coverage and a diminished discovery rate. The baseline LSST approach, in contrast, is potentially fragile to large numbers of false detections, but maximizes the survey performance. One of our key objectives was to investigate this fragility by conducting high-fidelity linkage tests on a full-density simulated LSST detection stream. We also sought to quantify the overall performance of LSST as an NEO discovery system, under the hypothesis that the NEO detections arising from the baseline LSST survey observing cadence can be successfully linked. We used the latest instantiation of the LSST baseline survey and the most current NEO population model to derive the fraction of NEOs detected and cataloged by LSST from among the source population. As a part of this we developed a high-fidelity detection model that accurately represented the LSST focal plane and implemented a smooth degradation in detection efficiency near the limiting magnitude, rather than the usual step function. The study carefully modeled losses from trailed detections associated with fast moving objects, and we investigated other minor effects, such as telescope vignetting, and asteroid colors and light curves. For the linking tests, we included all major sources of detections for a single selected observing cycle (full moon to full moon), leading to 66 million detections, of which 77% were false detections, 23% were main-belt asteroids, and only 0.14% were NEOs. Using only a single 8-core workstation we were able to successfully link 94% of potential NEO discoveries in the detection stream. We are confident that with appropriately-sized computation resources, some algorithmic improvements and careful tuning of the linking algorithms the linking efficiency can be significantly improved. In this simulation, 96% of objects in the NEO catalog were correctly linked. Of the 4% that involved erroneous linkages, almost all comprised detections of two distinct main-belt asteroids. This situation, known as “main-belt confusion” is fundamental to the NEO search problem and is readily resolved as the main-belt asteroid catalog becomes filled in over time. Despite the 77% rate of false detections, less than 0.1% of derived NEOs in this simulation included false detections. From these results, within the study hypotheses, we conclude that the two visits-per-night observation cadence can be successful in cataloging NEOs. This conclusion does assume a certain rate of false positives, but is unlikely to be sensitive to increases by factors of a few in the false detection rate, given the significant computational resources allocated by LSST for the problem. Our simulations revealed that in 10 years LSST would catalog ∼ 60% of NEOs with absolute magnitude H < 22, which is a proxy for 140m and larger objects. This results neglects linking losses and the contribution of any other NEO surveys. Including our worst-case linking efficiency we reach a overall performance assessment of 55% completeness of NEOs with H < 22. We estimate that survey mis-modeling could account for systematic errors of up to 5%. We find that restricting the evaluation metric to so-called Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) increases the completeness by 3–4%, and that including the benefits of past and expected future NEO survey activity increases completeness at the end of the baseline LSST survey by 15-20%. Assembling these results leads to a projection that by the end of the baseline LSST survey the NEO catalog will be 80±5% complete for PHAs with H < 22. As described in detail in the report, these results are largely consistent with other results obtained independently; indeed the small 1–2% variation among independent estimates of NEO completeness is remarkable and reassuring. The results above require pairs of observations in three distinct nights over no more than 12 days. A maximum linking interval of 20 days, for which high linking efficiency has not been demonstrated, leads to a 2–3% improvement in completeness. We also tested a special-purpose LSST cadence designed to enhance the NEO discovery rate, but our results show little improvement over the baseline for a ten-year survey. Surveying longer does provide an increase in completeness, by roughly 2% per year for a lone LSST and 1% per year when including contributions from other surveys. Thus, in our judgement, the H < 22 PHA catalog can be expected to approach ∼ 85% completeness, but not 90%, after 12 years of LSST operation.

The Spitzer Space Telescope has proven to be a powerful tool to measure the diameters and albedos of Near Earth Objects. We have completed two major Spitzer NEO surveys (ExploreNEOs and NEOSurvey) and are in the middle of a culiminating third survey (NEOLegacy), with a total target list across all three programs of 2175 previously known NEOs. We report here on the status of our ongoing program and of our entire database. We report our measured size distribution of NEOs as well as the distribution of albedos (and, by proxy, compositions). We also report preliminary results from our new initiative to derive lightcurves from our observations. Ultimately, more than 1000 NEO partial or complete lightcurves with high quality photometry will be extracted from our data. Our new website nearearthobjects.nau.edu includes data and modeling results from across all of our programs.This work is based in part on observations made with the Spitzer Space Telescope, which is operated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology under a contract with NASA. Support for this work was provided by NASA through an award issued by JPL/Caltech.

We are carrying out an Exploration Science Warm Spitzer program entitled NEOSurvey in which we are observing 550 Near Earth Objects in 710 hours of Spitzer time. For each object we use a thermal model to derive diameter and albedo. For each object we also derive a (partial) lightcurve; total elapsed observing times range from 15 minutes to 3.2 hours. This catalog of 500+ NEO lightcurves is a substantial increase over the number of NEO lightcurves presently known. In addition to creating a large catalog of NEO properties, we are also able to study the properties of individual NEOs, including those with low delta V values (i.e., accessible asteroids) and those that might be dead comets. The final observations in this program will be obtained by 30 Sept 2016, so at the DPS meeting we will present a first look at our entire catalog of results. All results are posted at nearearthobjects.nau.edu usually within days of the data being released by the Spitzer Science Center. This work was supported in part by funding from the Spitzer Science Center.

We are carrying out an Exploration Science Warm Spitzer program entitled NEOSurvey in which we are observing 550 Near Earth Objects in 710 hours of Spitzer time. For each object we use a thermal model to derive diameter and albedo. For each object we also derive a (partial) lightcurve; total elapsed observing times range from 15 minutes to 3.2 hours. This catalog of 500+ NEO lightcurves is a substantial increase over the number of NEO lightcurves presently known. In addition to creating a large catalog of NEO properties, we are also able to study the properties of individual NEOs, including those with low delta V values (i.e., accessible asteroids) and those that might be dead comets. The final observations in this program will be obtained by 30 Sept 2016, so at the DPS meeting we will present a first look at our entire catalog of results. All results are posted at nearearthobjects.nau.edu usually within days of the data being released by the Spitzer Science Center. This work was supported in part by funding from the Spitzer Science Center.

More than 12000 Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) have been discovered over the past few decades and current discovery surveys find on average 4 new NEOs every night. In comparison to asteroid discovery, the physical characterization of NEOs lags far behind: measured diameters and albedos exist only for roughly 10% of all known NEOs. We describe a current and a future observing program that provide diameter and albedo measurements of a large number of NEOs.In our Spitzer Space Telescope Exploration Science program 'NEOSurvey', we are performing a fast and efficient flux-limited survey in which we measure the diameters and albedos of ~600 NEOs in a total of 710 hrs of observing time. We measure the thermal emission of our targets at 4.5 micron and combine these measurements with optical data in a thermal model. Our diameters and albedos come with highly realistic uncertainties that account for a wide range of potential asteroid properties. Our primary goal is to create a large and uniform catalog of NEO properties, including diameters, albedos, and flux density data. This catalog is publicly accessible and provides the latest results usually within 2 weeks after the observation.Starting in 2016, we will also make use of the refurbished and recommissioned MIRSI mid-infrared imaging camera on NASA's InfraRed Telescope Facility (IRTF) to derive the diameters and albedos of up to 750 NEOs over a period of 3 yrs. MIRSI will be equipped with an optical camera that will allow for simultaneous optical imaging, which will improve our thermal modeling results. With MIRSI, we will focus on newly discovered NEOs that are close to Earth and hence relatively bright.The results from both programs, together with already exisiting diameter and albedo results from the literature, will form the largest database of NEO physical properties available to date. With this data set, we will be able to refine the size distribution of small NEOs and the corresponding impact frequency, and compare the albedo distribution of NEOs with those of their potential source populations. These projects are supported by NASA and the Spitzer Science Center.

The potentially hazardous asteroid (101955) 1999 RQ36 has the possibility of collision with the Earth in the latter half of the 22nd century, well beyond the traditional 100-year time horizon for routine impact monitoring. The probabilities accumulate to a total impact probability of approximately 10E-3, with a pair of closely related routes to impact in 2182 comprising more than half of the total. The analysis of impact possibilities so far in the future is strongly dependent on the action of the Yarkovsky effect, which raises new challenges in the careful assessment of longer term impact hazards. Even for asteroids with very precisely determined orbits, a future close approach to Earth can scatter the possible trajectories to the point that the problem becomes like that of a newly discovered asteroid with a weakly determined orbit. If the scattering takes place late enough so that the target plane uncertainty is dominated by Yarkovsky accelerations then the thermal properties of the asteroid,which are typically unknown, play a major role in the impact assessment. In contrast, if the strong planetary interaction takes place sooner, while the Yarkovsky dispersion is still relatively small compared to that derived from the measurements, then precise modeling of the nongravitational acceleration may be unnecessary., Comment: Reviewed figures and some text changes

A survey that can cover the sky in optical bands over wide fields to faint magnitudes with a fast cadence will enable many of the exciting science opportunities of the next decade. The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will have an effective aperture of 6.7 meters and an imaging camera with field of view of 9.6 deg^2, and will be devoted to a ten-year imaging survey over 20,000 deg^2 south of +15 deg. Each pointing will be imaged 2000 times with fifteen second exposures in six broad bands from 0.35 to 1.1 microns, to a total point-source depth of r~27.5. The LSST Science Book describes the basic parameters of the LSST hardware, software, and observing plans. The book discusses educational and outreach opportunities, then goes on to describe a broad range of science that LSST will revolutionize: mapping the inner and outer Solar System, stellar populations in the Milky Way and nearby galaxies, the structure of the Milky Way disk and halo and other objects in the Local Volume, transient and variable objects both at low and high redshift, and the properties of normal and active galaxies at low and high redshift. It then turns to far-field cosmological topics, exploring properties of supernovae to z~1, strong and weak lensing, the large-scale distribution of galaxies and baryon oscillations, and how these different probes may be combined to constrain cosmological models and the physics of dark energy., 596 pages. Also available at full resolution at http://www.lsst.org/lsst/scibook