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ustaining the organisms, ecosystems and processes that underpin human wellbeing is necessary to achieve sustainable development. Here we define critical natural assets as the natural and semi-natural ecosystems that provide 90% of the total current magnitude of 14 types of nature’s contributions to people (NCP), and we map the global locations of these critical natural assets at 2 km resolution. Critical natural assets for maintaining local-scale NCP (12 of the 14 NCP) account for 30% of total global land area and 24% of national territorial waters, while 44% of land area is required to also maintain two global-scale NCP (carbon storage and moisture recycling). These areas overlap substantially with cultural diversity (areas containing 96% of global languages) and biodiversity (covering area requirements for 73% of birds and 66% of mammals). At least 87% of the world’s population live in the areas benefitting from critical natural assets for local-scale NCP, while only 16% live on the lands containing these assets. Many of the NCP mapped here are left out of international agreements focused on conserving species or mitigating climate change, yet this analysis shows that explicitly prioritizing critical natural assets and the NCP they provide could simultaneously advance development, climate and conservation goals.

These documents correspond to Chapter 4 of the IPBES methodological assessment of the diverse values and valuation of nature and its supplementary material., Suggested citation: Barton, D.N., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Lazos, E., Van Noordwijk, M., Engel, S., Girvan, A., Hahn, T., Leimona, B., Lele, S., Niamir, A., Özkaynak, B., Pawlowska-Mainville, A., Muradian, R., Ungar, P., Aydin, C., Iranah, P., Nelson, S., Cantú-Fernández M., and González-Jiménez, D. (2022). Chapter 4: Value expression in decision-making. In: Methodological Assessment Report on the Diverse Values and Valuation of Nature of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Balvanera, P., Pascual, U., Christie, M., Baptiste, B., and González-Jiménez, D. (eds). IPBES secretariat, Bonn, Germany. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6522261

These documents correspond to Chapter 1 of the IPBES methodological assessment of the diverse values and valuation of nature and its supplementary material., Suggested citation: Balvanera, P., Pascual, U., Christie, M., Baptiste, B., Lliso, B., Monroy, A.S., Guibrunet, L., Anderson, C.B., Athayde, S., Barton, D.N., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Jacobs, S., Kelemen, E., Kumar, R., Lazos, E., Martin, A., Mwampamba, T.H., Nakangu, B., O'Farrell, P., Raymond, C.M., Subramanian, S.M., Termansen, M., Van Noordwijk, M., Vatn, A., Contreras, V., and González-Jiménez, D. (2022). Chapter 1: The role of the values of nature and valuation for addressing the biodiversity crisis and navigating towards more just and sustainable futures. In: Methodological Assessment Report on the Diverse Values and Valuation of Nature of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. P. Balvanera, U. Pascual, C. Michael, B. Baptiste, and D. González-Jiménez (eds.). IPBES secretariat, Bonn, Germany. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6418971

These documents correspondtoChapter 1 of the IPBES methodological assessment of the diverse values and valuation of nature and its supplementary material.

Natural control of invertebrate crop pests has the potential to complement or replace conventional insecticide based practices, but its mainstream application is hampered by predictive unreliability across agroecosystems. Inconsistent responses of natural pest control to changes in landscape characteristics have been attributed to ecological complexity and system-specific conditions. Here, we review agroecological models and their potential to provide predictions of natural pest control across agricultural landscapes. Existing models have used a multitude of techniques to represent specific crop-pest-enemy systems at various spatiotemporal scales, but less wealthy regions of the world are underrepresented. A realistic representation of natural pest control across systems appears to be hindered by a practical trade-off between generality and realism. Nonetheless, observations of context-sensitive, trait-mediated responses of natural pest control to land-use gradients indicate the potential of ecological models that explicitly represent the underlying mechanisms. We conclude that modelling natural pest control across agroecosystems should exploit existing mechanistic techniques towards a framework of contextually bound generalizations. Observed similarities in causal relationships can inform the functional grouping of diverse agroecosystems worldwide and the development of the respective models based on general, but context-sensitive, ecological mechanisms. The combined use of qualitative and quantitative techniques should allow the flexible integration of empirical evidence and ecological theory for robust predictions of natural pest control across a wide range of agroecological contexts and levels of knowledge availability. We highlight challenges and promising directions towards developing such a general modelling framework.

Diversifying agricultural landscapes may mitigate biodiversity declines and improve pest management. Yet landscapes are rarely managed to suppress pests, in part because researchers seldom measure key variables related to pest outbreaks and insecticides that drive management decisions. We used a 13-year government database to analyse landscape effects on European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana) outbreaks and insecticides across c. 400 Spanish vineyards. At harvest, we found pest outbreaks increased four-fold in simplified, vineyard-dominated landscapes compared to complex landscapes in which vineyards are surrounded by semi-natural habitats. Similarly, insecticide applications doubled in vineyard-dominated landscapes but declined in vineyards surrounded by shrubland. Importantly, pest population stochasticity would have masked these large effects if numbers of study sites and years were reduced to typical levels in landscape pest-control studies. Our results suggest increasing landscape complexity may mitigate pest populations and insecticide applications. Habitat conservation represents an economically and environmentally sound approach for achieving sustainable grape production.

Fil: Díaz, Sandra. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba; Argentina. Fil: Broadgate, Wendy. Future Earth; Suecia. Fil: Declerck, Fabrice. Bioversity International; Italia. Fil: Dobrota, Susanna. Future Earth; Suecia. Fil: Krug, Cornelia. bioDISCOVERY; Suecia. Fil: Moersberg, Hannah. Future Earth; Francia. Fil: Obura, David. Coastal Oceans Research and Development – Indian Ocean; Kenya. Fil: Spehn, Eva. Forum Biodiversity; Suiza. Fil: Tewksbury, Joshua. Future Earth; Estados Unidos. Fil: Verburg, Peter. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos. Fil: Zafra Calvo, Noelia. Future Earth; Suecia. Fil: Bellon, Mauricio. Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad; México. Fil: Burgess, Neil. United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre; Reino Unido. Fil: Cariño, Joji. Forest Peoples Programme; Reino Unido. Fil: Castañeda Alvarez, Nora. Global Crop Diversity Trust; Alemania. Fil: Cavender-Bares, Jeannine. University of Minnesota; Estados Unidos. Fil: Chaplin Kramer, Rebecca. Stanford University; Estados Unidos. Fil: De Meester, Luc. Katholieke Universiteit Leuven; Bélgica. Fil: Dulloo, Ehsan. Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research; Francia. Fil: Fernández-Palacios, José María. Universidad de La Laguna; España. Fil: Garibaldi, Lucas A. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro. Instituto de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural; Argentina. Fil: Garibaldi, Lucas A. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural; Argentina. Fil: Hill, Samantha. United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre; Reino Unido. Fil: Isbell, Forest. University of Minnesota; Estados Unidos. Fil: Leadley, Paul. Université Paris-Saclay; Francia. Fil: Liu, Jianguo. Michigan State University; Estados Unidos. Fil: Mace, Georgina M. University College London; Reino Unido. Fil: Maron, Martine. The University of Queensland; Australia. Fil: Martín-López, Berta. Leuphana University Lüneburg; Alemania. Fil: McGowan, Philip. University of Newcastle; Australia. Fil: Pereira, Henrique. German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research; Alemania. Fil: Purvis, Andy. Imperial College London. Grand Challenges in Ecosystems and the Environment; Reino Unido. Fil: Reyes-García, Victoria. Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona; España. Fil: Rocha, Juan. Future Earth; Suecia. Fil: Rondinini, Carlo. Sapienza-Università di Roma; Italia. Fil: Shannon, Lynne. University of Cape Town; Sudáfrica. Fil: Shaw, Rebecca. World Wildlife Fund; Estados Unidos. Fil: Shin, Yunne Jai. University of Cape Town. Marine Research Institute. Department of Biological Sciences; Sudáfrica. Fil: Snelgrove, Paul. Memorial University of Newfoundland; Canadá. Fil: Strassburg, Bernardo. International Institute for Sustainability; Brasil. Fil: Subramanian, Suneetha.United Nations University; Japón. Fil: Visconti, Piero. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Austria. Fil: Watson, James. Wildlife Conservation Society; Estados Unidos. Fil: Zanne, Amy. The George Washington University; Estados Unidos. Fil: Bruford, Michael. Cardiff University; Gales. Fil: Colli, Licia. Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Italia. Fil: Azeredo de Dornelas, Maria. University of St Andrews; Escocia. Fil: Bascompte, Jordi. Universität Zürich; Suiza. Fil: Forest, Felix. Royal Botanic Gardens; Reino Unido. Fil: Hoban, Sean. The Morton Arboretum; Estados Unidos. Fil: Jones, Sarah. Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research; Francia. Fil: Jordano, Pedro. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas; España. Fil: Kassen, Rees. University of Ottawa; Canadá. Fil: Khoury, Colin. Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research; Francia. Fil: Laikre, Linda. Stockholms Universitet; Suecia. Fil: Maxted, Nigel. University of Birmingham; Reino Unido. Fil: Miloslavich, Patricia. Universidad Simón Bolívar; Venezuela. Fil: Moreno Mateos, David. Basque Centre for Climate Change; España. Fil: Ogden, Rob. The University of Edinburgh; Reino Unido. Fil: Segelbacher, Gernot. Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg; Alemania. Fil: Souffreau, Caroline. Katholieke Universiteit Leuven; Bélgica. Fil: Svenning, Jens Christian. Aarhus University; Dinamarca. Fil: Vázquez, Ella. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; México. This report is the result of a meeting which aimed to offer scientific guidance to the development under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) of the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework focussing on its contribution to the 2030 Mission and 2050 Vision. We provide a synthesis of the scientific and technical justification, evidence base and feasibility for outcome-oriented goals on nature and its contributions to people, including biodiversity at different levels from genes to biomes. The report is structured to respond to the Zero Draft of the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework.

Complexity and context-dependence in ecological and socioecological phenomena often cause inconsistent or seemingly idiosyncratic responses. This apparent lack of generality presents a challenge to the implementation of ecological principles in environmental management. We mostly rely for prediction on data-hungry correlative models that offer little mechanistic understanding. The alternative of process-based modelling is knowledge-intensive and has limited applicability across systems, due to a trade-off between generality and realism. Here, we present an archetype approach, combining trait-mediated mechanistic understanding into ecological models of intermediate generality, as a way to overcome these limitations. We demonstrate its potential in the case of natural pest control across crop-pest-enemy systems. After reviewing the current modelling approaches and their shortcomings, we show that similar responses of natural pest control in cases that share key characteristics indicate the potential for context-sensitive generalizations. Example archetypes show great promise for improved understanding and prediction. We outline how statistical analysis of available data and rule sets for model development will allow systematic definition of archetypes representing the key processes of all major crop-pest-enemy systems of the world. In this and other applied cases, the use of archetype approaches is a major step forward in facilitating both scientific synthesis and uptake of ecological knowledge in environmental management. Archetype approaches can enhance the application of ecological principles not only to crop pest control, but also to the management of a wide range of natural resources that have been affected by fragmentation of ecological research.

Details on crop pest species, statistical analyses and results

The idea that noncrop habitat enhances pest control and represents a win–win opportunity to conserve biodiversity and bolster yields has emerged as an agroecological paradigm. However, while noncrop habitat in landscapes surrounding farms sometimes benefits pest predators, natural enemy responses remain heterogeneous across studies and effects on pests are inconclusive. The observed heterogeneity in species responses to noncrop habitat may be biological in origin or could result from variation in how habitat and biocontrol are measured. Here, we use a pest-control database encompassing 132 studies and 6,759 sites worldwide to model natural enemy and pest abundances, predation rates, and crop damage as a function of landscape composition. Our results showed that although landscape composition explained significant variation within studies, pest and enemy abundances, predation rates, crop damage, and yields each exhibited different responses across studies, sometimes increasing and sometimes decreasing in landscapes with more noncrop habitat but overall showing no consistent trend. Thus, models that used landscape-composition variables to predict pest-control dynamics demonstrated little potential to explain variation across studies, though prediction did improve when comparing studies with similar crop and landscape features. Overall, our work shows that surrounding noncrop habitat does not consistently improve pest management, meaning habitat conservation may bolster production in some systems and depress yields in others. Future efforts to develop tools that inform farmers when habitat conservation truly represents a win–win would benefit from increased understanding of how landscape effects are modulated by local farm management and the biology of pests and their enemies.

Many decision-makers are looking to science to clarify how nature supports human well-being. Scientists’ responses have typically focused on empirical models of the provision of ecosystem services (ES) and resulting decision-support tools. Although such tools have captured some of the complexities of ES, they can be difficult to adapt to new situations. Globally useful tools that predict the provision of multiple ES under different decision scenarios have proven challenging to develop. Questions from decision-makers and limitations of existing decision-support tools indicate three crucial research frontiers for incorporating cutting-edge ES science into decision-support tools: (1) understanding the complex dynamics of ES in space and time, (2) linking ES provision to human well-being, and (3) determining the potential for technology to substitute for or enhance ES. We explore these frontiers in-depth, explaining why each is important and how existing knowledge at their cutting edges can be incorporated to improve ES decision-making tools.

Climate change has the potential to alter the San Francisco Bay Area’s agricultural production, a $2 billion industry. Two of the top sectors, wine and ranching, are examined in this paper. Downscaled models suggest that forage production in Bay Area rangelands may be enhanced by future conditions in most years, at least in terms of peak standing crop. However, the timing of production is as important as its peak, and altered precipitation patterns could mean delayed germination and earlier senescence, resulting in shorter growing seasons. An increase in the frequency of extremely dry years also increases the uncertainty of forage availability. Similarly, wine grape yields are projected to increase throughout much of the Bay Area, but wine grape quality may decline substantially under future climate conditions, as the crop ripens earlier during hotter months. The implications for these shifts in wine grape and forage production are that the aspects of Bay Area agriculture most sensitive to climate change are not yields, but subtler nuances of production such as quality and timing. Adaptive measures will need to be taken to maintain the economic viability of these enterprises.

Agricultural pests can be reduced or controlled by naturally-occurring predators and parasitoids, but effective management of this ecosystem service requires an understanding of the factors contributing to its delivery. Pest control services are thought to be enhanced by natural habitat in agricultural landscapes, based on a large body of research demonstrating positive relationships between predator or parasitoid abundance on farms and the amount of nearby natural habitat. However, there is little or no evidence for a concomitant increase in pest control--if "control" is defined as the maintenance of pest populations below a certain level. The difficulty in measuring pest control by pest densities is that it is unknown how much more abundant pests would be in the absence of their enemies. This dissertation investigates different aspects of pest control to assess whether and under what conditions natural habitat can provide this ecosystem service to farms, using the study system of cabbage aphids (Brevicoryne brassicae) and their syrphid predators (Diptera: Syrphidae) in broccoli (Brassica oleracea) on California's Central Coast. A major factor that may affect the potential for natural habitat to provide pest control services is the presence of alternate host plants for pests within the weed community surrounding the farm. Physiological experiments show that one weedy relative of broccoli, black mustard (Brassica nigra), could serve as more than merely an alternate host. Due to its toxic chemistry, B. nigra allows cabbage aphids to develop more quickly than when on broccoli, and to build a mustard bomb that can compromise or kill their syrphid predators. Weedy B. nigra may provide a refuge from an important predator and thus could be serving as a source of aphid pests to crops. The potential for habitat around the farm to benefit pests as well as natural enemies is an important consideration in understanding the impact of habitat complexity on pest control services.Underlying spatial variation in pest distributions (whether due to alternate host plants or a number of other factors such as microclimate and dispersal) makes it difficult to detect the contribution of natural enemies to overall pest control. A cage experiment holding initial aphid densities constant across a landscape gradient measures the effect of habitat complexity on pest reduction by natural enemies, and reveals the importance of habitat at the landscape level as well as at the local on-farm level late in the growing season. Reduction of cabbage aphid densities is up to four times higher at more complex sites. The degree to which habitat at one scale could compensate for a lack of it at the other is dependent on aphid colonization and population growth early in the season, determined by abiotic factors such as temperature and dispersal patterns. In addition to considering such variation across spatial scales, this dissertation tackles variation in pest populations and the delivery of pest control services across temporal scales. A three-year survey involving weekly measurements of aphid and syrphid densities assesses the effect of natural habitat on different indicators of pest control services. Syrphid larval abundance increases strongly with the proportion of natural habitat surrounding the farm, and cabbage aphid population growth is reduced on farms with higher syrphid densities, resulting in a weak but significant decline of aphid densities with natural habitat. Pest control services delivered by natural habitat may be masked by inter-annual variation in environmental factors and by competing direct and indirect effects (i.e., landscape effects on the pests themselves versus on the natural enemies' control of pests). Therefore, longer term datasets are necessary in order to detect the true magnitude of pest control services provided by natural habitat.The results of this dissertation indicate that pests are indeed constrained to some extent by ecosystem services, but the degree to which this constraint can contribute to overall pest control is dependent on pest colonization and population growth early in the season. The role of natural habitat in promoting natural enemy communities is an important consideration for pest management, but must be employed with other methods of pest management for truly effective and reliable control.

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios., Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (11), ISSN:1991-9603, ISSN:1991-959X

IPBES is an independent intergovernmental body comprising over 130 member Governments. Established by Governments in 2012, IPBES provides policymakers with objective scientific assessments about the state of knowledge regarding the planet’s biodiversity, ecosystems and the contributions they make to people, as well as options and actions to protect and sustainably use these vital natural assets. The IPBES Methodological Assessment of the Diverse Values and Valuation of Nature was initiated following a decision from the IPBES Plenary at its sixth session (IPBES 6, Medellin, 2018), and considered by the IPBES Plenary at its ninth session (IPBES-9, Bonn, 2022). It is composed of a summary for policymakers which was approved at IPBES-9, and six chapters, which were accepted at IPBES 9., Suggested citation: IPBES (2022): IPBES (2022). Summary for Policymakers of the Methodological Assessment Report on the Diverse Values and Valuation of Nature of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Pascual, U., Balvanera, P., Christie, M., Baptiste, B., González-Jiménez, D., Anderson, C.B., Athayde, S., Barton, D.N., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Jacobs, S., Kelemen, E., Kumar, R., Lazos, E., Martin, A., Mwampamba, T.H., Nakangu, B., O'Farrell, P., Raymond, C.M., Subramanian, S.M., Termansen, M., Van Noordwijk, M., and Vatn, A. (eds.). IPBES secretariat, Bonn, Germany. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6522392