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Contact matrices are a commonly adopted data representation, used to develop compartmental models for epidemic spreading, accounting for the contact heterogeneities across age groups. Their estimation, however, is generally time and effort consuming and model-driven strategies to quantify the contacts are often needed. In this article we focus on household contact matrices, describing the contacts among the members of a family and develop a parametric model to describe them. This model combines demographic and easily quantifiable survey-based data and is tested on high resolution proximity data collected in two sites in South Africa. Given its simplicity and interpretability, we expect our method to be easily applied to other contexts as well and we identify relevant questions that need to be addressed during the data collection procedure.

Digital contact tracing is a public health intervention. It should be integrated with local health policy, provide rapid and accurate notifications to exposed individuals, and encourage high app uptake and adherence to quarantine. Real-time monitoring and evaluation of effectiveness of app-based contact tracing is key for improvement and public trust., 9 pages

The rapid dynamics of COVID-19 calls for quick and effective tracking of virus transmission chains and early detection of outbreaks, especially in the “phase 2” of the pandemic, when lockdown and other restriction measures are progressively withdrawn, in order to avoid or minimize contagion resurgence. For this purpose, contact-tracing apps are being proposed for large scale adoption by many countries. A centralized approach, where data sensed by the app are all sent to a nation-wide server, raises concerns about citizens’ privacy and needlessly strong digital surveillance, thus alerting us to the need to minimize personal data collection and avoiding location tracking. We advocate the conceptual advantage of a decentralized approach, where both contact and location data are collected exclusively in individual citizens’ “personal data stores”, to be shared separately and selectively (e.g., with a backend system, but possibly also with other citizens), voluntarily, only when the citizen has tested positive for COVID-19, and with a privacy preserving level of granularity. This approach better protects the personal sphere of citizens and affords multiple benefits: it allows for detailed information gathering for infected people in a privacy-preserving fashion; and, in turn this enables both contact tracing, and, the early detection of outbreak hotspots on more finely-granulated geographic scale. The decentralized approach is also scalable to large populations, in that only the data of positive patients need be handled at a central level. Our recommendation is two-fold. First to extend existing decentralized architectures with a light touch, in order to manage the collection of location data locally on the device, and allow the user to share spatio-temporal aggregates—if and when they want and for specific aims—with health authorities, for instance. Second, we favour a longer-term pursuit of realizing a Personal Data Store vision, giving users the opportunity to contribute to collective good in the measure they want, enhancing self-awareness, and cultivating collective efforts for rebuilding society., Ethics and Information Technology, 23 (1), ISSN:1388-1957, ISSN:1572-8439

Supplementary information (DOCX 758 kB)

The pdf file entitled “Supplementary material for Evaluation of Home Detection Algorithms on Mobile Phone Datausing Individual-Level Ground Truth” contains extra details about the computation carried out in the main text. (PDF 1.1 MB)

The coronavirus 2019–2020 pandemic (COVID-19) poses unprecedented challenges for governments and societies around the world ( 1 ). Nonpharmaceutical interventions have proven to be critical for delaying and containing the COVID-19 pandemic ( 2 – 6 ). These include testing and tracing, bans on large gatherings, nonessential business and school and university closures, international and domestic mobility restrictions and physical isolation, and total lockdowns of regions and countries. Decision-making and evaluation or such interventions during all stages of the pandemic life cycle require specific, reliable, and timely data not only about infections but also about human behavior, especially mobility and physical copresence. We argue that mobile phone data, when used properly and carefully, represents a critical arsenal of tools for supporting public health actions across early-, middle-, and late-stage phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. Seminal work on human mobility has shown that aggregate and (pseudo-)anonymized mobile phone data can assist the modeling of the geographical spread of epidemics ( 7 – 11 ). Thus, researchers and governments have started to collaborate with private companies, most notably mobile network operators and location intelligence companies, to estimate the effectiveness of control measures in a number of countries, including Austria, Belgium, Chile, China, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States ( 12 – 21 ). There is, however, little coordination or information exchange between these national or even regional initiatives ( 22 ). Although ad hoc mechanisms leveraging mobile phone data can be effectively (but not easily) developed at the local or national level, regional or even global collaborations seem to be much more difficult given the number of actors, the range of interests and priorities, the variety of legislations concerned, and the need to protect civil liberties. The global scale and spread of the COVID-19 pandemic highlight the need for a more harmonized or coordinated approach. In the …

This document describes and analyzes a system for secure and privacy-preserving proximity tracing at large scale. This system, referred to as DP3T, provides a technological foundation to help slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by simplifying and accelerating the process of notifying people who might have been exposed to the virus so that they can take appropriate measures to break its transmission chain. The system aims to minimise privacy and security risks for individuals and communities and guarantee the highest level of data protection. The goal of our proximity tracing system is to determine who has been in close physical proximity to a COVID-19 positive person and thus exposed to the virus, without revealing the contact's identity or where the contact occurred. To achieve this goal, users run a smartphone app that continually broadcasts an ephemeral, pseudo-random ID representing the user's phone and also records the pseudo-random IDs observed from smartphones in close proximity. When a patient is diagnosed with COVID-19, she can upload pseudo-random IDs previously broadcast from her phone to a central server. Prior to the upload, all data remains exclusively on the user's phone. Other users' apps can use data from the server to locally estimate whether the device's owner was exposed to the virus through close-range physical proximity to a COVID-19 positive person who has uploaded their data. In case the app detects a high risk, it will inform the user., arXiv

This document describes and analyzes a system for secure and privacy-preserving proximity tracing at large scale. This system, referred to as DP3T, provides a technological foundation to help slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by simplifying and accelerating the process of notifying people who might have been exposed to the virus so that they can take appropriate measures to break its transmission chain. The system aims to minimise privacy and security risks for individuals and communities and guarantee the highest level of data protection. The goal of our proximity tracing system is to determine who has been in close physical proximity to a COVID-19 positive person and thus exposed to the virus, without revealing the contact's identity or where the contact occurred. To achieve this goal, users run a smartphone app that continually broadcasts an ephemeral, pseudo-random ID representing the user's phone and also records the pseudo-random IDs observed from smartphones in close proximity. When a patient is diagnosed with COVID-19, she can upload pseudo-random IDs previously broadcast from her phone to a central server. Prior to the upload, all data remains exclusively on the user's phone. Other users' apps can use data from the server to locally estimate whether the device's owner was exposed to the virus through close-range physical proximity to a COVID-19 positive person who has uploaded their data. In case the app detects a high risk, it will inform the user., Comment: 46 pages, 6 figures, first published 3 April 2020 on https://github.com/DP-3T/documents where companion documents and code can be found

This paper describes how mobile phone data can guide government and public health authorities in determining the best course of action to control the COVID-19 pandemic and in assessing the effectiveness of control measures such as physical distancing. It identifies key gaps and reasons why this kind of data is only scarcely used, although their value in similar epidemics has proven in a number of use cases. It presents ways to overcome these gaps and key recommendations for urgent action, most notably the establishment of mixed expert groups on national and regional level, and the inclusion and support of governments and public authorities early on. It is authored by a group of experienced data scientists, epidemiologists, demographers and representatives of mobile network operators who jointly put their work at the service of the global effort to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.

Home detection, assigning a phone device to its home antenna, is a ubiquitous part of most studies in the literature on mobile phone data. Despite its widespread use, home detection relies on a few assumptions that are difficult to check without ground truth, i.e., where the individual that owns the device resides. In this paper, we provide an unprecedented evaluation of the accuracy of home detection algorithms on a group of sixty-five participants for whom we know their exact home address and the antennas that might serve them. Besides, we analyze not only Call Detail Records (CDRs) but also two other mobile phone streams: eXtended Detail Records (XDRs, the ``data'' channel) and Control Plane Records (CPRs, the network stream). These data streams vary not only in their temporal granularity but also they differ in the data generation mechanism', e.g., CDRs are purely human-triggered while CPR is purely machine-triggered events. Finally, we quantify the amount of data that is needed for each stream to carry out successful home detection for each stream. We find that the choice of stream and the algorithm heavily influences home detection, with an hour-of-day algorithm for the XDRs performing the best, and with CPRs performing best for the amount of data needed to perform home detection. Our work is useful for researchers and practitioners in order to minimize data requests and to maximize the accuracy of home antenna location.

Low-dimensional vector representations of network nodes have proven successful to feed graph data to machine learning algorithms and to improve performance across diverse tasks. Most of the embedding techniques, however, have been developed with the goal of achieving dense, low-dimensional encoding of network structure and patterns. Here, we present a node embedding technique aimed at providing low-dimensional feature vectors that are informative of dynamical processes occurring over temporal networks -- rather than of the network structure itself -- with the goal of enabling prediction tasks related to the evolution and outcome of these processes. We achieve this by using a modified supra-adjacency representation of temporal networks and building on standard embedding techniques for static graphs based on random-walks. We show that the resulting embedding vectors are useful for prediction tasks related to paradigmatic dynamical processes, namely epidemic spreading over empirical temporal networks. In particular, we illustrate the performance of our approach for the prediction of nodes' epidemic states in a single instance of a spreading process. We show how framing this task as a supervised multi-label classification task on the embedding vectors allows us to estimate the temporal evolution of the entire system from a partial sampling of nodes at random times, with potential impact for nowcasting infectious disease dynamics., updated version with additional results

The value of big data and advanced analytics lies critically in the opportunity to make better decisions and to design better policies. Identifying needs, targeting interventions, and measuring impact are all challenges that can greatly benefit from more quantitative approaches and data-intensive methods. This opportunity is currently stimulating new research lines in academia, new data sharing initiatives in industry, and new programs in the non-profit sector, while also calling for novel crosssector collaborations around data. This talk will reflect on the complex interplay of new data sources, data science methods and algorithmic decisions, discussing selected case studies in the domains of health and mobility, and highlighting opportunities as well as challenges for the generation of public value and social impact.

Social media in scientific research offer a unique digital observatory of human behaviours and hence great opportunities to conduct research at large scale answering complex sociodemographic questions. We focus on the identification and assessment of biases in social media administered surveys. This study aims to shed light on population, self-selection and behavioural biases, empirically comparing the consistency between self-reported information collected traditionally versus social media administered questionnaires, including demographic and psychometric attributes. We engaged a demographically representative cohort of young adults in Italy (approximately 4,000 participants) in taking a traditionally administered online survey and then, after one year, we invited them to use our ad hoc Facebook application (988 accepted) where they filled in part of the initial survey. We assess the statistically significant differences indicating population, self-selection, and behavioural biases due to the different context in which the questionnaire is administered. Our findings suggest that surveys administered on Facebook do not exhibit major biases with respect to traditionally administered surveys neither in terms of demographics, nor personality traits. Loyalty, authority, and social binding values were higher in the Facebook platform, probably due to the platform's intrinsic social character. We conclude, that Facebook apps are valid research tools for administering demographic and psychometric surveys provided that the entailed biases are taken into consideration. We contribute to the characterisation of Facebook apps as a valid scientific tool to administer demographic and psychometric surveys, and to the assessment of population, self-selection, and behavioural biases in the collected data.

Stress and accompanying physiological responses can occur when everyday emotional, mental and physical challenges exceed one's ability to cope. A long-term exposure to stressful situations can have negative health consequences, such as increased risk of cardiovascular diseases and immune system disorder. It is also shown to adversely affect productivity, well-being, and self-confidence, which can lead to social and economic inequality. Hence, a timely stress recognition can contribute to better strategies for its management and prevention in the future. Stress can be detected from multimodal physiological signals (e.g. skin conductance and heart rate) using well-trained models. However, these models need to be adapted to a new target domain and personalized for each test subject. In this paper, we propose a deep reconstruction classification network and multi-task learning (MTL) for domain adaption and personalization of stress recognition models. The domain adaption is achieved via a hybrid model consisting of temporal convolutional and recurrent layers that perform shared feature extraction through supervised source label predictions and unsupervised target data reconstruction. Furthermore, MTL based neural network approach with hard parameter sharing of mutual representation and task-specific layers is utilized to acquire personalized models. The proposed methods are tested on multimodal physiological time-series data collected during driving tasks, in both real-world and driving simulator settings.

International audience; Recent advances in data collection have facilitated the access to time-resolved human proximity data that can conveniently be represented as temporal networks of contacts between individuals. While this type of data is fundamental to investigate how information or diseases propagate in a population, it often suffers from incompleteness, which possibly leads to biased conclusions. A major challenge is thus to estimate the outcome of spreading processes occurring on temporal networks built from partial information. To cope with this problem, we devise an approach based on Non-negative Tensor Factorization (NTF)-a dimensionality reduction technique from multi-linear algebra. The key idea is to learn a low-dimensional representation of the temporal network built from partial information, to adapt it to take into account temporal and structural heterogeneity properties known to be crucial for spreading processes occurring on networks, and to construct in this way a surrogate network similar to the complete original network. To test our method, we consider several human-proximity networks, on which we simulate a loss of data. Using our approach on the resulting partial networks, we build a surrogate version of the complete network for each. We then compare the outcome of a spreading process on the complete networks (non altered by a loss of data) and on the surrogate networks. We observe that the epidemic sizes obtained using the surrogate networks are in good agreement with those measured on the complete networks. Finally, we propose an extension of our framework when additional data sources are available to cope with the missing data problem.

Background Nearly every year Influenza affects most countries worldwide and the risk of a new pandemic is always present. Therefore, influenza is a major concern for public health. School-age individuals are often the most affected group, suggesting that the inclusion in preparedness plans of school closure policies may represent an option for influenza mitigation. However, their applicability remains uncertain and their implementation should carefully be weighed on the basis of cost-benefit considerations. Methods We developed an individual-based model for influenza transmission integrating data on sociodemography and time use of the Italian population, face-to-face contacts in schools, and influenza natural history. The model was calibrated on the basis of epidemiological data from the 2009 influenza pandemic and was used to evaluate the effectiveness of three reactive school closure strategies, all based on school absenteeism. Results In the case of a new influenza pandemic sharing similar features with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, gradual school closure strategies (i.e., strategies closing classes first, then grades or the entire school) could lead to attack rate reduction up to 20–25 % and to peak weekly incidence reduction up to 50–55 %, at the cost of about three school weeks lost per student. Gradual strategies are quite stable to variations in the start of policy application and to the threshold on student absenteeism triggering class (and school) closures. In the case of a new influenza pandemic showing different characteristics with respect to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, we found that the most critical features determining the effectiveness of school closure policies are the reproduction number and the age-specific susceptibility to infection, suggesting that these two epidemiological quantities should be estimated early on in the spread of a new pandemic for properly informing response planners. Conclusions Our results highlight a potential beneficial effect of reactive gradual school closure policies in mitigating influenza spread, conditioned on the effort that decision makers are willing to afford. Moreover, the suggested strategies are solely based on routinely collected and easily accessible data (such as student absenteeism irrespective of the cause and ILI incidence) and thus they appear to be applicable in real world situations. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1918-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Supplementary materials. (pdf)

Supplementary Material. Text describing methods in detail and additional results. (PDF 461 kb)

Supplementary Figure and Tables. (PDF 304 kb)

Supplementary information. Contact matrices for each household. Contact matrices from a synthetic model. Inter-household contact timeline. (pdf)

Study booklet. (PDF 187 kb)

The customary perspective to reason about epidemic mitigation in temporal networks hinges on the identification of nodes with specific features or network roles. The ensuing individual-based control strategies, however, are difficult to carry out in practice and ignore important correlations between topological and temporal patterns. Here we adopt a mesoscopic perspective and present a principled framework to identify collective features at multiple scales and rank their importance for epidemic spread. We use tensor decomposition techniques to build an additive representation of a temporal network in terms of mesostructures, such as cohesive clusters and temporally-localized mixing patterns. This representation allows to determine the impact of individual mesostructures on epidemic spread and to assess the effect of targeted interventions that remove chosen structures. We illustrate this approach using high-resolution social network data on face-to-face interactions in a school and show that our method affords the design of effective mesoscale interventions.

International audience; —Today, many people spend a lot of time online. Their social interactions captured in online social networks are an important part of the overall personal social profile, in addition to interactions taking place offline. This paper investigates whether relations captured by online social networks can be used as a proxy for the relations in offline social networks, such as networks of human face-to-face (F2F) proximity and coauthorship networks. Particularly, the paper focuses on interactions of computer scientists in online settings (homepages, social networks profiles and connections) and offline settings (scientific collaboration, face-to-face communications during the conferences). We focus on quantitative studies and investigate the structural similarities and correlations of the induced networks; in addition, we analyze implications between networks. Finally, we provide a qualitative user analysis to find characteristics of good and bad proxies.

In this paper we present an experimental framework to gather data on face-to-face social interactions between individuals, with a high spatial and temporal resolution. We use active Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) devices that assess contacts with one another by exchanging low-power radio packets. When individuals wear the beacons as a badge, a persistent radio contact between the RFID devices can be used as a proxy for a social interaction between individuals. We present the results of a pilot study recently performed during a conference, and a subsequent preliminary data analysis, that provides an assessment of our method and highlights its versatility and applicability in many areas concerned with human dynamics.

Social bookmarking systems allow users to organise collections of resources on the Web in a collaborative fashion. The increasing popularity of these systems as well as first insights into their emergent semantics have made them relevant to disciplines like knowledge extraction and ontology learning. The problem of devising methods to measure the semantic relatedness between tags and characterizing it semantically is still largely open. Here we analyze three measures of tag relatedness: tag co-occurrence, cosine similarity of co-occurrence distributions, and FolkRank, an adaptation of the PageRank algorithm to folksonomies. Each measure is computed on tags from a large-scale dataset crawled from the social bookmarking system del.icio.us. To provide a semantic grounding of our findings, a connection to WordNet (a semantic lexicon for the English language) is established by mapping tags into synonym sets of WordNet, and applying there well-known metrics of semantic similarity. Our results clearly expose different characteristics of the selected measures of relatedness, making them applicable to different subtasks of knowledge extraction such as synonym detection or discovery of concept hierarchies., 5 pages, 2 figures

A common social problem at an event in which people do not personally know all of the other participants is the natural tendency for cliques to form and for discussions to mainly happen between people who already know each other. This limits the possibility for people to make interesting new acquaintances and acts as a retarding force in the creation of new links in the social web. Encouraging users to socialize with people they don't know by revealing to them hidden surprising links could help to improve the diversity of interactions at an event. The goal of this paper is to propose a method for detecting "surprising" relationships between people attending an event. By "surprising" relationship we mean those relationships that are not known a priori, and that imply shared information not directly related with the local context of the event (location, interests, contacts) at which the meeting takes place. To demonstrate and test our concept we used the Flickr community. We focused on a community of users associated with a social event (a computer science conference) and represented in Flickr by means of a photo pool devoted to the event. We use Flickr metadata (tags) to mine for user similarity not related to the context of the event, as represented in the corresponding Flickr group. For example, we look for two group members who have been in the same highly specific place (identified by means of geo-tagged photos), but are not friends of each other and share no other common interests or, social neighborhood.

While the Semantic Web has evolved to support the meaningful exchange of heterogeneous data through shared and controlled conceptualisations, Web 2.0 has demonstrated that large-scale community tagging sites can enrich the semantic web with readily accessible and valuable knowledge. In this paper, we investigate the integration of a movies folksonomy with a semantic knowledge base about user-movie rentals. The folksonomy is used to enrich the knowledge base with descriptions and categorisations of movie titles, and user interests and opinions. Using tags harvested from the Internet Movie Database, and movie rating data gathered by Netflix, we perform experiments to investigate the question that folksonomy-generated movie tag-clouds can be used to construct better user profiles that reflect a user's level of interest in different kinds of movies, and therefore, provide a basis for prediction of their rating for a previously unseen movie.

We analyze a large-scale snapshot of del.icio.us and investigate how the number of different tags in the system grows as a function of a suitably defined notion of time. We study the temporal evolution of the global vocabulary size, i.e. the number of distinct tags in the entire system, as well as the evolution of local vocabularies, that is the growth of the number of distinct tags used in the context of a given resource or user. In both cases, we find power-law behaviors with exponents smaller than one. Surprisingly, the observed growth behaviors are remarkably regular throughout the entire history of the system and across very different resources being bookmarked. Similar sub-linear laws of growth have been observed in written text, and this qualitative universality calls for an explanation and points in the direction of non-trivial cognitive processes in the complex interaction patterns characterizing collaborative tagging., Comment: 6 pages, 7 figures

Collaborative tagging has been quickly gaining ground because of its ability to recruit the activity of web users into effectively organizing and sharing vast amounts of information. Here we collect data from a popular system and investigate the statistical properties of tag co-occurrence. We introduce a stochastic model of user behavior embodying two main aspects of collaborative tagging: (i) a frequency-bias mechanism related to the idea that users are exposed to each other's tagging activity; (ii) a notion of memory - or aging of resources - in the form of a heavy-tailed access to the past state of the system. Remarkably, our simple modeling is able to account quantitatively for the observed experimental features, with a surprisingly high accuracy. This points in the direction of a universal behavior of users, who - despite the complexity of their own cognitive processes and the uncoordinated and selfish nature of their tagging activity - appear to follow simple activity patterns., 8 pages, 7 figures

Social interactions have been the focus of social science research for a century, but their study has recently been revolutionized by novel data sources and by methods from computer science, network science, and complex systems science. The study of social interactions is crucial for understanding complex societal behaviours. Social interactions are naturally represented as networks, which have emerged as a unifying mathematical language to understand structural and dynamical aspects of socio-technical systems. Networks are, however, highly dimensional objects, especially when considering the scales of real-world systems and the need to model the temporal dimension. Hence the study of empirical data from social systems is challenging both from a conceptual and a computational standpoint. A possible approach to tackling such a challenge is to use dimensionality reduction techniques that represent network entities in a low-dimensional feature space, preserving some desired properties of the original data. Low-dimensional vector space representations, also known as network embeddings, have been extensively studied, also as a way to feed network data to machine learning algorithms. Network embeddings were initially developed for static networks and then extended to incorporate temporal network data. We focus on dimensionality reduction techniques for time-resolved social interaction data modelled as temporal networks. We introduce a novel embedding technique that models the temporal and structural similarities of events rather than nodes. Using empirical data on social interactions, we show that this representation captures information relevant for the study of dynamical processes unfolding over the network, such as epidemic spreading. We then turn to another large-scale dataset on social interactions: a popular Web-based crowdfunding platform. We show that tensor-based representations of the data and dimensionality reduction techniques such as tensor factorization allow us to uncover the structural and temporal aspects of the system and to relate them to geographic and temporal activity patterns.

Multivariate analysis of high-dimensional datasets with multiple categorical variables (e.g. surveys, questionnaires) is a challenging task but can reveal patterns of responses that are masked from univariate analyses. In this paper we propose a novel variational inference algorithm to cluster high-dimensional categorical observations into latent classes. Variational inference is an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm, which combines fast optimization methods with the ability to propagate the uncertainty to the clustering (soft clustering). The model is robust to misspecification of the number of latent classes and can infer a reasonable number from the data. We assess the performance on synthetic and real world data and show that our algorithm has similar performance to the best other tested method if the correct number of classes is known and outperforms the other methods if it the number of classes needs to be inferred. An R-package implementing our algorithm is available at the Comprehensive R Archive Network.

We explore in this paper using timelines to represent bureaucratic processes in a municipal setting. The system described herein enables citizens and case workers to collaborate over the application for and configuration of parental leave, which is a highly involved process under Danish law.