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Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody tests of varying specificity and sensitivity are now available. For informing individuals whether they have had coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), they need to be very accurate. For measuring population prevalence of past infection, the numbers of false positives and negatives need to be roughly equal. With a series of worked examples for a notional population of 100,000 people, we show that even test systems with a high specificity can yield a large number of false positive results, especially where the population prevalence is low. For example, at a true population prevalence of 5%, using a test with 99% sensitivity and specificity, 16% of positive results will be false and thus 950 people will be incorrectly informed they have had the infection. Further confirmatory testing may be needed. Giving false reassurance on which personal or societal decisions might be based could be harmful for individuals, undermine public confidence and foster further outbreaks.

Background/Objectives: The association of weight changes with cardiometabolic biomarkers in South Asians has been sparsely studied.\ud Subjects/Methods: We measured cardiometabolic biomarkers at baseline and after 3 years in the Prevention of Diabetes and Obesity in South Asians Trial. We investigated the effect of a lifestyle intervention on biomarkers in the randomized groups. In addition, treating the population as a single cohort, we estimated the association between change in weight and change in biomarkers.\ud Results: Complete data were available at baseline and after 3 years in 151 participants. At 3 years, there was an adjusted mean reduction of 1·44 kg (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.18–2.71) in weight and 1.59 cm (95% CI: 0.08–3.09) in waist circumference in the intervention arm as compared with the control arm. There was no clear evidence of difference between the intervention and control arms in change of mean value of any biomarker. As a single cohort, every 1 kg weight reduction during follow-up was associated with a reduction in triglycerides (−1.3%, P=0.048), alanine aminotransferase (−2.5%, P=0.032), gamma-glutamyl transferase (−2.2%, P=0.040), leptin (−6.5%, P

Background There is an absence of evidence about interventions to prevent or treat obesity in early childhood and in South Asian populations, in whom risk is higher. Objectives To study patterns and the aetiology of childhood obesity in a multiethnic population and develop a prevention intervention. Design A cohort of pregnant women and their infants was recruited. Measures to compare growth and identify targets for obesity prevention, sensitive to ethnic differences, were collected. A feasibility randomised controlled trial (RCT) was undertaken. Setting Bradford, UK. Participants A total of 1735 mothers, 933 of whom were of South Asian origin. Intervention A feasibility trial of a group-based intervention aimed at overweight women, delivered ante- and postnatally, targeting key modifiable lifestyle behaviours to reduce infant obesity. Main outcome measures The feasibility and acceptability of the pilot intervention. Data sources Routine NHS data and additional bespoke research data. Review methods A systematic review of diet and physical activity interventions to prevent or treat obesity in South Asian children and adults. Results Routine measures of growth were accurate. The prevalence of risk factors differed between mothers of white British ethnicity and mothers of Pakistani ethnicity and weight and length growth trajectories differed between Pakistani infants and white British infants. Prediction equations for risk of childhood obesity were developed. An evidence-based intervention was evaluated in a pilot RCT and was found to be feasible and acceptable. Limitations This was a single-centre observational study and a pilot evaluation. Conclusions The programme has been successful in recruiting a unique multiethnic childhood obesity cohort, which has provided new evidence about modifiable risk factors and biethnic growth trajectories. A novel group-based behavioural change intervention has been developed and successfully piloted. A multisite cluster RCT is required to evaluate effectiveness.

Background: There is some evidence that school-based interventions are effective in preventing childhood obesity. However, longer term outcomes, equity of effects and cost-effectiveness of interventions have not been assessed. The aim of this trial is to assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a multi-component intervention programme targeting the school and family environment through primary schools, in preventing obesity in 6-7 year old children, compared to usual practice. Methods: This cluster randomised controlled trial is set in 54 primary schools within the West Midlands, UK, including a multi-ethnic, socioeconomically diverse population of children aged 6-7 years. The 12-month intervention consists of healthy diet and physical activity promotion. These include: activities to increase time spent doing physical activity within the school day, participation in the 'Villa Vitality' programme (a programme that is delivered by an iconic sporting institution (Aston Villa Football Club), which provides interactive learning opportunities for physical activity and healthy eating), healthy cooking skills workshops in school time for parents and children, and provision of information to families signposting local leisure opportunities. The primary (clinical) outcome is the difference in body mass index (BMI) z-scores between arms at 3 and 18 months post-intervention completion. Cost per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) will also be assessed. The sample size estimate (1000 children split across 50 schools at follow-up) is based on 90% power to detect differences in BMI z-score of 0.25 (estimated ICC).

Objective: To describe differences in the prevalence of modifiable risk factors for childhood obesity between children of White British and Pakistani origin and investigate the association between these risk factors and childhood BMI measured at age 3 years. Subjects: We used data from a sub-study of the Born in Bradford birth cohort with detailed follow-up visits throughout early childhood. 987 participants with a BMI measurement at age 3 were included; 39% were White British, 48% were of Pakistani origin and 13% were of Other ethnicities. Methods: Linear and Poisson regression models were used to assess the association between risk factors and two outcomes at age 3; BMI z-scores and child overweight. Results: Compared to Pakistani mothers, White British mothers were more likely to smoke during pregnancy, have higher BMI, breastfeed for a shorter duration and wean earlier, while Pakistani mothers had higher rates of gestational diabetes and were less active. There was no strong evidence that the relationship between risk factors and BMI z-score differed by ethnicity. There were associations between BMI z-score and maternal smoking (mean difference in BMI z-score 0.33 (95%CI 0.13, 0.53)), maternal obesity (0.37 (0.19, 0.55)), indulgent feeding style (0.15 (-0.06, 0.36)), lower parental warmth scores (0.21 (0.05, 0.36)) and higher parental hostility scores (0.17 (0.01, 0.33)). Consistent associations between these risk factors and child overweight were found. Mean BMI and the relative risk of being overweight were lower in children of mothers with lower parental self-efficacy scores and who watched more hours of TV. Other risk factors (gestational diabetes, child diet, child sleep, child TV viewing and maternal physical activity) were not associated with BMI. Conclusions: Whilst the prevalence of risk factors that have been associated with childhood greater BMI differ between White British and Pakistani the magnitude of their associations with BMI are similar in the two groups.

Objective: To assess feasibility and acceptability of a multifaceted, culturally appropriate intervention for preventing obesity in South Asian children, and to obtain data to inform sample size for a definitive trial.\ud \ud \ud \ud Design: Phase II feasibility study of a complex intervention.\ud \ud \ud \ud Setting: 8 primary schools in inner city Birmingham, UK, within populations that are predominantly South Asian.\ud \ud \ud \ud Participants: 1090 children aged 6–8 years took part in the intervention. 571 (85.9% from South Asian background) underwent baseline measures. 85.5% (n=488) were followed up 2 years later.\ud \ud \ud \ud Interventions: The 1-year intervention consisted of school-based and family-based activities, targeting dietary and physical activity behaviours. The intervention was modified and refined throughout the period of delivery.\ud \ud \ud \ud Main outcome measures: Acceptability and feasibility of the intervention and of measurements required to assess outcomes in a definitive trial. The difference in body mass index (BMI) z-score between arms was used to inform sample size calculations for a definitive trial.\ud \ud \ud \ud Results: Some intervention components (increasing school physical activity opportunities, family cooking skills workshops, signposting of local leisure facilities and attending day event at a football club) were feasible and acceptable. Other components were acceptable, but not feasible. Promoting walking groups was neither acceptable nor feasible. At follow-up, children in the intervention compared with the control group were less likely to be obese (OR 0.41; 0.19 to 0.89), and had lower adjusted BMI z-score (−0.15 kg/m2; 95% CI −0.27 to −0.03).\ud \ud \ud \ud Conclusions: The feasibility study informed components for an intervention programme. The favourable direction of outcome for weight status in the intervention group supports the need for a definitive trial. A cluster randomised controlled trial is now underway to assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the intervention.\ud \ud \ud \ud Trial registration number: ISRCTN51016370.

Background: The implementation of a complex intervention is heavily influenced by individual context. Variation in implementation and tailoring of the intervention to the particular context will occur, even in a trial setting. It is recognised that in trials, evaluating the process of implementation of a complex intervention is important, yet process evaluation methods are rarely reported. The WAVES study is a cluster randomised controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of an obesity prevention intervention programme targeting children aged 6-7 years, delivered by teachers in primary schools across the West Midlands, UK. The intervention promoted activities encouraging physical activity and healthy eating. This paper presents the methods used to assess implementation of the intervention. Methods: Previous literature was used to identify the dimensions of intervention process and implementation to be assessed, including adherence, exposure, quality of delivery, participant responsiveness, context, and programme differentiation. Results: Multiple methods and tools were developed to capture information on all these dimensions. These included observations, logbooks, qualitative evaluation, questionnaires and research team reflection. Discussion: Data collection posed several challenges, predominantly when relying on teachers to complete paperwork, which they saw as burdensome on top of their teaching responsibilities. However, the use of multiple methods helped to ensure data on each dimension, where possible, was collected using more than one method. This also allowed for triangulation of the findings when several data sources on any one dimension were available. Conclusions: We have reported a comprehensive approach to the assessment of the implementation and processes of a complex childhood obesity prevention intervention within a cluster randomised controlled trial. These approaches can be transferred and adapted for use in other complex intervention trials. Trial registration number: ISRCTN97000586

Objectives To describe the design and baseline population characteristics of an adapted lifestyle intervention trial aimed at reducing weight and increasing physical activity in people of Indian and Pakistani origin at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes.\ud \ud Design Cluster, randomised controlled trial.\ud \ud Setting Community-based in Edinburgh and Glasgow, Scotland, UK.\ud \ud Participants 156 families, comprising 171 people with impaired glycaemia, and waist sizes ≥90 cm (men) and ≥80 cm (women), plus 124 family volunteers.\ud \ud Interventions Families were randomised into either an intensive intervention of 15 dietitian visits providing lifestyle advice, or a light (control) intervention of four visits, over a period of 3 years.\ud \ud Outcome measures The primary outcome is a change in mean weight between baseline and 3 years. Secondary outcomes are changes in waist, hip, body mass index, plasma blood glucose and physical activity. The cost of the intervention will be measured. Qualitative work will seek to understand factors that motivated participation and retention in the trial and families’ experience of adhering to the interventions.\ud \ud Results Between July 2007 and October 2009, 171 people with impaired glycaemia, along with 124 family volunteers, were randomised. In total, 95% (171/196) of eligible participants agreed to proceed to the 3-year trial. Only 13 of the 156 families contained more than one recruit with impaired glycaemia. We have recruited sufficient participants to undertake an adequately powered trial to detect a mean difference in weight of 2.5 kg between the intensive and light intervention groups at the 5% significance level. Over half the families include family volunteers. The main participants have a mean age of 52 years and 64% are women.\ud \ud Conclusions Prevention of Diabetes and Obesity in South Asians (PODOSA) is one of the first community-based, randomised lifestyle intervention trials in a UK South Asian population. The main trial results will be submitted for publication during 2013.

Health research on race and ethnicity has been criticized for lacking rigor in conceptualization, terminology, and analysis. Scientific journals' editorial processes help determine research quality. This survey assessed editors' awareness of current debates, attitudes toward recent recommendations, and involvement in developing editorial policies. Twenty-nine editors of health journals with impact factors of > or = 1 (based on citation ratings) were sent a questionnaire including four key problems identified in research literature and recommendations from federal agencies; 23 (79%) responded. Seven editors relevant policies. Two had read the federal directive on racial and ethnic classification; one was aware of its current review. Most perceived the four key problems as uncommon. The majority agreed with Public Health Service recommendations on race and ethnicity research, except for analyzing effects of racism. Approximately 20% had discussed issues with co-editors, editorial boards, or reviewers. About 40% saw further discussion as beneficial; four planned to draft guidelines. Editors' potential for helping resolve problems in race/ethnicity research is not being realized. Greater participation would be beneficial to public health research and practice.

The aim of this paper is to review the literature on the frequency of cancers to develop priorities for cancer policy, prevention, services and research for black and minority ethnic populations in Britain. Data on populations originating in the Indian sub-continent, and Caribbean and African Commonwealth were extracted from published works. Cancers were ranked (top seven) on the basis of the number of cases, actual frequency, and also on relative frequency (SMR, SRR, PMR). Cancer was found to be a common cause of death. For example, during 1979-83 the proportion of deaths resulting from neoplasms in immigrants living in England and Wales was 11% for Indian and African men aged 20-49, and 19% for Caribbeans. The corresponding proportions were higher among women. The pattern of cancer depended on the method used to assess rankings. On the basis of the number of cases the top 3 ranking cancers for adults were breast, long and neoplasms of the lymphatic system. Based on SMR's cancer of the gallbladder, liver and oral cavity ranked amongst the top 3 for adults. For children the top ranking cancers were acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, central nervous system tumours and neuroblastoma. Variations by ethnic group were more evident in the rankings of relative frequency than in rankings based on numbers of cases. In conclusion, the most common and preventable cancers among minority ethnic populations were the same as those for the general population. The different cancer pattern based on SMRs highlight additional needs and provide potential models for research into understanding the causes of these cancers. Health services policy and practice should ensure that the common and preventable cancers take priority over rare cancers and those for which there is no effective treatment or prevention. Priorities for policy, prevention, clinical care and research should be set separately, for they differ.

An important type of review undertaken routinely in health care teams is analysis of individual cases. This informal process can be turned into a structured and effective form of audit by using an adaptation of the "critical incident" technique in facilitated case discussions. Participants are asked to recall personal situations that they feel represent either effective or ineffective practice. From such review of individual cases arise general standards to improve the quality of care. On the basis of a study of audit of deaths in general practice, we describe how to implement such a system, including forming and maintaining the discussion group, methodology, and guidelines for facilitators. Problems that may arise during the case discussions are outlined and their management discussed, including problems within the team and with the process of the discussions.

BackgroundSince COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, attempts have been made to monitor trends over time and to compare countries and regions. Insufficient testing for COVID-19 underestimates the incidence and inflates the case-fatality proportion. Given the age- and sex- distribution of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19, the underlying sex- and age-distribution of a population needs to be accounted for. The aim of this paper is to present a method for monitoring trends of COVID-19 using adjusted mortality trend ratios (AMTR).MethodsAge- and sex-mortality distribution of a reference population composed of the first 14,086 fatalities which occurred before the end of March and were reported in Europe by some countries were used to calculate age- and sex-specific mortality rates per 1,000,000 population. These were applied to each country population to calculate the expected deaths. Adjusted Mortality Trend Ratios (AMTRs) with 95% confidence intervals (C.I.) were calculated for selected European countries from 17/03/2020 to 22/06/2020 by dividing observed cumulative mortality, by expected mortality times the crude mortality of the reference population. These estimated the sex- and age-adjusted mortality for COVID-19 per million population in each country.ResultsThe cumulative mortality from COVID-19, the crude mortality rates, and the AMTRs were calculated for each country and compared. United Kingdom, Italy, France and Spain registered the highest mortality in Europe. On 22/06/2020 in Europe the total mortality rate from COVID-19 was 352 per 1,000,000 inhabitants; and it was highest in Belgium (850 per 1,000,000 inhabitants) followed by Spain, UK, Italy, Sweden and France. When accounting for the underlying age and sex structure of each country, Belgium remained the single country experiencing the highest AMTR of 929 per million inhabitants on 22/06/2020; however Ireland – which had a CMR in line with the total European population – emerged as having experienced a much more important impact of COVID-19 mortality with an AMTR of 550/million on 22/06/2020, higher than Sweden and Italy.ConclusionsIn understanding and managing the pandemic of COVID-19, comparable international data is a priority. Our methods allow a fair comparison of mortality in space and over time. The authors urge the WHO, given the absence of age and sex-specific mortality data for direct standardisation, to adopt this method to estimate the comparative mortality from COVID-19 pandemic worldwide.Key messageComparing trends of the COVID-19 pandemic over time and in space is essential to monitor the disease and compare different local policiesUsing the concept of indirect standardisation we propose a method to effectively compare age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates trends interpretable as deaths for COVID-19 per million inhabitantsApplying this methods, interesting features of the infection in Europe emerged; e.g. by 22/06/2020 Belgium is the most severely affected country with an AMTR of 929 per million inhabitants, followed by the UK; Ireland and Sweden rank fourth and fifth most affected country in EuropeThe WHO should consider using this method for monitoring the spread of COVID-19, which only requires recording the total number of death from COVID-19 from each country/region

The chapter uses accounts that describe fieldwork ‘critical moments’ drawn from two research projects on educational and housing conditions of Roma people to reflect on key methodological dilemmas arising from research with marginalised groups. The chapter addresses four issues: a) the risks of symbolic violence as always ‘around the corner’ in fieldwork activity; b) the access as a key step in the construction of the encounter and the problem of its negotiation; c) researchers’ positionality; d) neo-positivist empiricism and ethnocentrism as forms of symbolic violence which are yet very common but difficult to discover in research with marginalized groups. We argue for the adoption of a reflexive disposition towards fieldwork activities that problematizes the connections between research, symbolic violence and the wider relations of exploitation and domination and transforms the ‘betweenness’ of the researcher and the researched worlds as a space of possibility for questioning the dominant regimes of truth.