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International audience; For the period 2003–2014, we investigate unexplored effects of fiscal consolidation in decentralized public finance on a large dataset of Italian municipalities. Based on a simple, realistic theoretical model, we show that municipalities increase arrears on committed investment expenditure as a response to intergovernmental transfer cuts. Then, we test our predictions controlling for potential sources of endogeneity, and find that a reduction in intergovernmental transfers causes a significant increase in arrears, in addition to other common adjustments to local fiscal policies (e.g., tax revenues). Our results highlight a perverse effect of fiscal consolidation packages implemented by centrally imposed fiscal restraints.

Tony Atkinson is universally celebrated for his outstanding contributions to the measurement and analysis of inequality, but he never saw the study of inequality as a separate branch of economics. He was an economist in the classical sense, rejecting any sub-field labelling of his interests and expertise, and he made contributions right across economics. His death on 1 January 2017 deprived the world of both an intellectual giant and a deeply committed public servant in the broadest sense of the term. This collective tribute highlights the range, depth and importance of Tony’s enormous legacy, the product of over fifty years’ work. This is a discussion paper which subsequently has been published in The Review of Income and Wealth. © 2017 Wiley

In this paper we examine the empirical relationship between immigration and crime across Italian provinces during the period 1990-2003. Drawing on police administrative data, we first document that the size of immigrant population is positively correlated with the incidence of property crimes and with the overall crime rate. Then, we use instrumental variables based on migration toward other European countries to identify the causal impact of exogenous changes of immigrant population in Italy. According to these estimates, immigration increases only the incidence of robberies, while leaving unaffected all other types of crime. Since robberies represent a very minor fraction of all criminal offenses, the effect on the overall crime rate is not significantly different from zero., Dans cet article nous examinons le rapport empirique entre immigration et crime dans les provinces italiennes pendant la période 1990-2003. Travaillant à partie de données administratives de la police, nous constatons d'abord que la taille de la population immigrée est positivement correlée avec la fréquence des atteintes à la propriété et avec le taux de criminalité dans son ensemble. Puis, nous employons des variables instrumentales basées sur la migration vers d'autres pays européens pour identifier l'impact des changements exogènes de la population immigrée en Italie. Selon ces évaluations, l'immigration augmente seulement la fréquence des vols avec violence, tout en laissant inchangé la fréquence de tous autres types de crime. Puisque les vols avec violence représentent une fraction très mineure de toutes les offenses criminelles, l'effet sur le taux de crime global n'est pas sensiblement différent de zéro.

Bank of Italy Working Paper no. 1076, https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1076/en_tema_1076.pdf; Local governments may increase expenditure arrears to relax the financial constraints induced by intergovernmental transfer cuts. We assess this hypothesis using information from accounting and financial reports from Italian municipalities for the period 2003-2010. By exploiting the long-lasting effect of the 1977-1978 structural reform of Italian local public finance, we employ an instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity concerns. We find robust empirical evidence that the lower the intergovernmental grants, the larger the use of arrears in public investment expenditures by municipalities. We argue that, when local governments are not subject to effective controls on the formation of arrears but fiscal rules impose binding budget constraints, a cut in intergovernmental transfers can partially diminish the effectiveness of fiscal consolidation at local level.

Italy has the lowest labor supply of married women among EU countries. Moreover, the participation rate of married women is positively correlated with their husbands’ income. We show that these two features can be partly explained by the tax system: a high tax rate together with tax credits and transfers raise the burden of two-earner households, generating disincentives to work. We estimate two structural models of labor supply: one where the husband’s labor supply is inelastic and one with joint couple decisions. Then we use the estimated parameters to simulate the effects of alternative revenue-neutral tax systems on labor supply. We find that working tax credit and gender-based taxation boost it, with the effects of the former being concentrated on low educated women. Conversely, joint taxation implies a drop in the participation rate.JEL codes:J21, J22, H31

International audience; Do tariffs inhibit trade flows by limiting the entry of exporters (‘firm extensive margin’) or by restricting the average volume exported by each firm (‘firm intensive margin’)? Using a gravity equation approach, we analyze how the decrease in tariffs promoted during the 90s by the Uruguay Round multilateral trade agreement affected the trade margins of French firms for 57 sectors and 147 countries from 1993 to 2002. Our main contribution is to estimate the elasticity of trade on both margins, controlling for the unobserved heterogeneity of trade flows thanks to a three-dimensional panel and to time-varying tariffs as a measure of variable trade costs. Our results show that the number of firms exporting in a given sector to a given destination is related to the level of tariffs. But they also show that the decrease in tariffs induced by the implementation of the Uruguay Round did not lead more firms to export and that it only induced incumbent exporters to increase their shipments. We control for two problems that may affect our basic specification: tariff changes may be endogenous and zero flows are not included. Our results are confirmed — even when the extensive margin is significant, its magnitude is very small.

In this paper we propose a unified framework to analyse contemporaneous and temporal aggre-gation of exponential smoothing (EWMA) models. Focusing on a vector IMA(1,1) model, we obtain a closed form representation for the parameters of the contemporaneously and temporally aggregated process as a function of the parameters of the original one. In the framework of EWMA estimates of volatility, we present an application dealing with Value-at-Risk (VaR) pre-diction at different sampling frequencies for an equally weighted portfolio composed of multiple indices. We apply the aggregation results by inferring the decay factor in the portfolio volatility equation from the estimated vector IMA(1,1) model of squared returns. Empirical results show that VaR predictions delivered using this suggested approach are at least as accurate as those obtained by applying the standard univariate RiskMetricsTM methodology.