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ObjectivesTo evaluate the diagnostic performance of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) thresholds for acute heart failure and to develop and validate a decision support tool that combines NT-proBNP concentrations with clinical characteristics.DesignIndividual patient level data meta-analysis and modelling study.SettingFourteen studies from 13 countries, including randomised controlled trials and prospective observational studies.ParticipantsIndividual patient level data for 10 369 patients with suspected acute heart failure were pooled for the meta-analysis to evaluate NT-proBNP thresholds. A decision support tool (Collaboration for the Diagnosis and Evaluation of Heart Failure (CoDE-HF)) that combines NT-proBNP with clinical variables to report the probability of acute heart failure for an individual patient was developed and validated.Main outcome measureAdjudicated diagnosis of acute heart failure.ResultsOverall, 43.9% (4549/10 369) of patients had an adjudicated diagnosis of acute heart failure (73.3% (2286/3119) and 29.0% (1802/6208) in those with and without previous heart failure, respectively). The negative predictive value of the guideline recommended rule-out threshold of 300 pg/mL was 94.6% (95% confidence interval 91.9% to 96.4%); despite use of age specific rule-in thresholds, the positive predictive value varied at 61.0% (55.3% to 66.4%), 73.5% (62.3% to 82.3%), and 80.2% (70.9% to 87.1%), in patients aged 75 years, respectively. Performance varied in most subgroups, particularly patients with obesity, renal impairment, or previous heart failure. CoDE-HF was well calibrated, with excellent discrimination in patients with and without previous heart failure (area under the receiver operator curve 0.846 (0.830 to 0.862) and 0.925 (0.919 to 0.932) and Brier scores of 0.130 and 0.099, respectively). In patients without previous heart failure, the diagnostic performance was consistent across all subgroups, with 40.3% (2502/6208) identified at low probability (negative predictive value of 98.6%, 97.8% to 99.1%) and 28.0% (1737/6208) at high probability (positive predictive value of 75.0%, 65.7% to 82.5%) of having acute heart failure.ConclusionsIn an international, collaborative evaluation of the diagnostic performance of NT-proBNP, guideline recommended thresholds to diagnose acute heart failure varied substantially in important patient subgroups. The CoDE-HF decision support tool incorporating NT-proBNP as a continuous measure and other clinical variables provides a more consistent, accurate, and individualised approach.Study registrationPROSPERO CRD42019159407.

Background: Previous studies suggested that a different risk of mortality may influence the oral anticoagulant prescription in older patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Recently, the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) demonstrated a high grade of accuracy, calibration and feasibility to predict mortality in hospitalized and community-dwelling older people. Prognostic information, as calculated by the MPI, however, is not included in the decision algorithm of treatments in older patients with AF Purpose: The aim of this international multicenter prospective observational study was to evaluate whether a different prognostic profile, as determined by the MPI, is associated with different treatments for AF (no treatment vs oral anticoagulants) and differences in the main outcomes, i.e., mortality, major thromboembolic events and side effects. Materials and methods: Older hospitalized patients (age ≥ 65 years) with non-valvular AF will be consecutively enrolled in an European, cross-national, prospective, observational study. At baseline, functional and clinical information will be collected to calculate the MPI, CHA2DS2-VASc score, HAS-BLED score, pharmacological treatments (and the compliance during follow-up) and main and secondary diagnoses. During the 12-month follow-up period, information on survival, major thromboembolic events and major bleeding will be collected. For these aims, a sample size of 3000 people was deemed as sufficient. Conclusions: The EUROSAF study has the main objective of evaluating in a population of hospitalized older subjects with AF the clinical benefit/risk ratio of the oral anticoagulant treatments in terms of mortality, major thromboembolic events and bleeding side-effects, giving important information regarding the appropriate prescription of anticoagulant therapy in this population. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02973984.

Infections have plagued humans since the beginning of recorded history. Huge segments of the human population were episodically wiped out by epidemic infectious diseases in past centuries. Infection was and is often the final cause of mortality in the debilitated elderly. Substantial ongoing research has been performed to investigate mechanisms, causes, pathogenesis, and therapy for infectious disease. Much of this work has involved the elderly because that group is uniquely predisposed to morbidity and mortality from infection. It is hoped that continued research will result in a decrease in infection morbidity and mortality in elderly.