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Carbon offsets from voluntary avoided deforestation projects are generated based on performance vis-à-vis ex-ante deforestation baselines. We examined the impacts of 26 such project sites in six countries on three continents using synthetic control methods for causal inference. We find that most projects have not significantly reduced deforestation. For projects that did, reductions were substantially lower than claimed. This reflects differences between the project ex-ante baselines and ex-post counterfactuals based on observed deforestation in control areas. Methodologies used to construct deforestation baselines for carbon offset interventions need urgent revisions in order to correctly attribute reduced deforestation to the projects, thus maintaining both incentives for forest conservation and the integrity of global carbon accounting.

Carbon offsets from voluntarily avoided deforestation projects are generated based on performance vis-\`a-vis ex-ante deforestation baselines. We examined the impacts of 27 forest conservation projects in six countries on three continents using synthetic control methods for causal inference. We compare the project baselines with ex-post counterfactuals based on observed deforestation in control sites. Our findings show that most projects have not reduced deforestation. For projects that did, reductions were substantially lower than claimed. Methodologies for constructing deforestation baselines for carbon-offset interventions thus need urgent revisions in order to correctly attribute reduced deforestation to the conservation interventions, thus maintaining both incentives for forest conservation and the integrity of global carbon accounting.

Land users make decisions in an increasingly dynamic environment. Changes in expectations are driven by market and non-market factors, but research on market related drivers of land use change so far dominates in the literature. This paper examines how political discourses affect deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon region. Relying on novel data from Twitter, we present the first causal evidence of political discourse on deforestation. Our analysis relies on municipal level monthly panel data for 2019 with alternative remotely sensed measures of forest loss and vegetation fires as outcome variables. The effect of political discourse on these outcomes is identified using a shift-share regression approach. High exposure to laissez-faire political discourses increases forest loss by 2.3-3%, and fires by 2.2%. Our findings are robust across land tenure regimes, varying levels of policy enforcement, and alternative shift-share measures. Moreover, excluding dry season periods from the analysis does not change the main result. Land use in the Brazilian Amazon is highly sensitive to whether, how, and when authorities communicate their will to enforce environmental policy regulations. ‘Walking the talk’ remains imperative to protect the world’s tropical forests, but this study suggests that policy makers must carefully choose their words while walking.

Our research aims to quantitatively assess the intention of German crop farmers to adopt spot spraying for smart and sustainable weed control. In arable farming of developed countries, smart weeding technology bears high potential for the mitigation of negative environmental impacts caused by intense herbicide application. Reaping this potential is highly desirable both from an ecological and societal point of view. Moreover, the substantial savings in herbicides can lead to input cost savings. But due to the infancy of technological development, early examples of the technology are not necessarily economically viable. Additionally, farmers’ intrinsic environmental or innovation-related attitudes next to how they perceive their colleagues’ and society’s opinions towards their farming practices may hold conducive or obstructive effects on their consideration of smart and sustainable weeding technologies. Thus, we observe a general reluctance in arable farmers to explore or adopt early prototypes of such technologies. To assess what determines farmers' intention to adopt spot spraying we collect a unique data set on arable farmers from North Rhine-Westphalia (and potentially one other federal state of Germany), via an online survey distributed between February 2022 and March 2022. The core of the collected data consists of a set psychographic constructs developed within the framework of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TBP), established by Icek Ajzen (1991). We extended the TPB via three additional constructs in order to more accurately depict the smart farming innovation context. Furthermore, common sociodemographic and farm structural variables are collected for descriptive and control purposes. Structural Equation Modelling is applied to analyze the relations between individual constructs, especially as they pertain to the main construct of interest, i.e., the intention to use spot spraying. The questionnaire will be administered online via Qualtrics and econometrically analyzed with a statistical software package, e.g. R or SmartPLS.

Our research aims to quantitatively assess the intention to adopt smart weeding technology in German arable farmers. In modern arable farming, smart weeding technology bears high potential for the mitigation of negative environmental impacts caused by intense herbicide application. Reaping this potential is highly desirable both from an ecological and societal point of view. Moreover, the substantial savings in herbicides can lead to input cost savings. But due to the infancy of technological development, early examples of the technology are not necessarily economically viable. Moreover, literature suggest that digital agricultural systems in general are becoming more complex and the fact that smart farming devices, while in operation, collect data at rising rate and complexity stirs resistance regarding smart farming applications in farmers who mostly lack access and/or training and tools to analyze their own data. Thus, we observe a general reluctance in arable farmers to explore or adopt early prototypes of such technologies. In the present study, we experimentally approach farmers’ intention to adopt smart weeding technologies in two subsequent steps. First, we want to assess objective, i.e., sociodemographic and farm structural parameters next to selected attitudinal measures as potential determinants of farmers’ general intention to adopt smart weeding technology. Specifically, literature suggest that farmers’ innovativeness, their confidence regarding automated collection and management of data, and stance towards the environment can play meaningful roles regarding adoption (intention) of sustainable innovations on farm. As said, significant farm-level herbicide reductions can have positive environmental consequences on a larger scale and are, thus, of high interest for the greater society and policy makers. In academic literature, different approaches to guide and support farmers’ behavior regarding sustainable practices are discussed including behavioral nudges such as reference to societal norms or responsibility and monetary incentives. The second analysis step is thus committed to investigate the following research question: Do political measures in the form of monetary incentives (subsidy), that only partly compensate for the profit loss of applying innovative and smart weeding technologies, or/and normative information (nudges) aimed at farmers’ responsibility for the environment influence the intention to adopt smart weeding technology in a positive way? Lastly, we want to find out if a combination of a monetary incentive and a nudge can have an even larger positive effect on farmers’ intention to adopt environmentally more friendly, smart weeding technologies. The core element of the present study is a framed field experiment. Participants, placed in the role of a hypothetical farmer, are asked over the course of two game rounds, baseline and treatment round, to choose the mix of weeding methods on 50 hectares hypothetical farm land. Weeding methods differ in their environmental impacts and economic outcomes. The experiment is conducted with farmers from North Rhine-Westphalia and at least one other German federal state between February and April 2022. It will be administered online via the survey program Qualtrics and econometrically analyzed with a statistical software package, e.g. R or STATA.

Landscape connectivity plays an important role for the conservation of biodiversity and can be improved through the protection of ecological corridors between protected areas. Most of these corridors in Tanzania are on privately owned farmland, where subsistence farming is practised by village farmers. Conservation of these corridors are challenged by limited willingness of farmers to retire their farmlands for conservation. While conservation yields public benefits in terms of biodiversity conservation, they also require farmers to reduce agricultural activities and forgo private financial benefits. Trade-offs between conservation and crop farming may be motivated by monetary or non-monetary motives. Whether the former or the latter prevails is still debatable; rational farmers are likely to be motivated by monetary incentives, while pro-conservationist are likely to act altruistically and opt to conserve, in particular if exposed to nudges such as conservation sensitization. Both motives are interlinked. As such, monetary rewards for pro-environmental behaviour might interact with non-monetary motivations, resulting in crowding-out or crowding-in of intrinsic conservation behaviour. For the past three decades, most conservation interventions embarked on incentive schemes to convince farmers to retire their agricultural land for conservation purposes. However, these schemes have been designed under considerable uncertainties regarding their effectiveness in terms of conservation outcomes. Payment of fixed subsidies is the most common scheme, which has often resulted in isolated patches of conserved land. An agglomeration bonus (AB) has been proposed to complement subsidies in order to persuade farmers to retire land in a systematic way. AB has been reported to be a cost-effective and efficient incentive, which can yield a contiguous habitat through coordination of farmer’s decision. While theory underlying the AB predict optimal conservation outcome, a number of economic lab experiments have reported conservation failure. It is not clear how these incentives will perform in a framed field setting. Since the coordination is central to performance of AB, unequal farmland distribution in terms of size and productivity amongst land owners might play a role for the willingness of farmers to retire land for conservation purposes. As such, land heterogeneity adds to the uncertainties in terms of conservation outcomes of incentives. Vast strands of literature have shown that communication can ease coordination and therefore conservation outcome; however, the mechanism through which communication supports coordination remains unclear. In particular, the role of opinion leadership in communication received limited attention. We hypothesize that communication works when opinion leadership exists. In this study, we aim to assess the performance of different incentive scheme designs in enhancing conservation effectiveness and landscape connectivity under land heterogeneity and explore the mechanism through which opinion leadership in communication ease coordination. We are specifically interested in addressing four main hypotheses using a framed field experiment in two ecological corridors in Tanzania.

Protected areas (PAs) are important policy instruments for forest conservation, but it is unclear if improved management can increase PA effectiveness. In Brazil, formal management plans are required to be in place shortly after the creation of a PA. This requirement is rarely enforced and, as a result, several PAs undergo many years without approved plans. We take advantage of this variation among PAs to study the impact of management plans on deforestation. We provide estimates from two quasi-experimental evaluation approaches based on the generalization of the difference-in-differences estimator: (1) matching-based methods for time-series cross-sectional data analysis and (2) the generalized synthetic control (GSC) method. We find weak, yet generally consistent, evidence across these two methods suggesting that PAs with approved management plans protect forests more effectively over time. Significant impact estimates from the matching-based approach ranged more widely than the GSC method (0.01%–0.09% versus 0.04%–0.05% of avoided deforestation per year, respectively). The effect size of these impacts is relatively substantial given that the average annual forest loss from our PA sample was 0.07% (±0.40%). To the extent that PAs with approved management plans reflect actual differences in PA management quality, our findings suggest that investments in improving PA management could result in positive conservation gains over time.

Decarbonizing the global energy matrix through investments in renewable energy (RE) is considered a pathway to mitigate the effects of global climate change. Auctions have become an increasingly popular policy instrument for this purpose. In the last few years, auctions have been rapidly adopted by low- and middle-income countries due to their flexibility and several theoretical advantages to mitigate risks deriving from poor business environments. Previous research has used data from higher-income countries and two-way fixed effects models to estimate the effects of auctions on RE capacity, mostly with favorable results. However, none of these studies accounted for heterogeneous treatment effects across units to explore whether auctions are effective in countries with unstable business environments. Here we analyze if auctions can foster RE in countries facing macroeconomic instability or poor institutional quality. For this purpose, we have drawn from multiple publicly available databases to build a panel dataset covering 98 countries for the period 2000-2020. Our definition of RE includes solar, wind, and biomass sources. We show results for each RE source separately and all of them combined. We first cluster countries in terms of the quality of their business environment and then perform a differences-in-differences analysis considering staggered treatment adoption. Our results show that auctions positively affect RE capacity, but average treatment effects are higher for countries with better business environments. Thus, caution is needed in adopting this instrument, especially in countries exposed to macroeconomic or institutional instability. At the same time, dynamic treatment effects suggest that the policy needs time to show results.

Decarbonizing the global energy matrix through investments in renewable energy (RE) is considered a pathway to mitigate the effects of global climate change. Auctions have become an increasingly popular policy instrument for this purpose. In the last few years, auctions have been rapidly adopted by low- and middle-income countries due to their flexibility and several theoretical advantages to mitigate risks deriving from poor business environments. Previous research has used data from higher-income countries and two-way fixed effects models to estimate the effects of auctions on RE capacity, mostly with favorable results. However, none of these studies accounted for heterogeneous treatment effects across units to explore whether auctions are effective in countries with unstable business environments. Here we analyze if auctions can foster RE in countries facing macroeconomic instability or poor institutional quality. For this purpose, we have drawn from multiple publicly available databases to build a panel dataset covering 98 countries for the period 2000-2020. Our definition of RE includes solar, wind, and biomass sources. We show results for each RE source separately and all of them combined. We first cluster countries in terms of the quality of their business environment and then perform a differences-in-differences analysis considering staggered treatment adoption. Our results show that auctions positively affect RE capacity, but average treatment effects are higher for countries with better business environments. Thus, caution is needed in adopting this instrument, especially in countries exposed to macroeconomic or institutional instability. At the same time, dynamic treatment effects suggest that the policy needs time to show results.

In humans, alterations of circadian rhythms and autophagy are linked to metabolic, cardiovascular and neurological dysfunction. Autophagy constitutes a specific form of cell recycling in many eukaryotic cells. Aging is the principal risk factor for the development of neurodegenerative diseases. Thus, we assume that both the circadian clock and autophagy are indispensable to counteract aging. We have previously shown that the hippocampus of Per1−/−-mice exhibits a reduced autophagy and higher neuronal susceptibility to ischemic insults compared to wild type (WT). Therefore, we chose to study the link between aging and loss of clock gene Per1−/−-mice. Young and aged C3H- and Per1−/−-mice were used as models to analyze the hippocampal distribution of Aβ42, lipofuscin, presenilin, microglia, synaptophysin and doublecortin. We detected several changes in the hippocampus of aged Per1−/−-mice compared to their wild type littermates. Our results show significant alterations of microglia morphology, an increase in Aβ42 deposition, overexpression of presenilin, decrease in synaptophysin levels and massive accumulation of lipofuscin in the hippocampus of 24-month-old Per1−/−-mice, without alteration of adult neurogenesis. We suggest that the marked lipofuscin accumulation, Aβ42 deposition, and overexpression of presenilin-2 observed in our experiments may be some of the consequences of the slowed autophagy in the hippocampus of aged Per1−/−-mice. This may lead during aging to excessive accumulation of misfolded proteins which may, consequently, result in higher neuronal vulnerability.

Session ID 4797, Paper# 18285

Session ID 4846, Paper# 18351

Session ID 4772, Paper# 19871

Session ID 4741, Paper# 19148

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552 An important part of conservation practice is the empirical evaluation of program and policy impacts. Understanding why conservation programs succeed or fail is essential for designing cost-effective initiatives and for improving the livelihoods of natural resource users. The evidence we seek can be generated with modern impact evaluation designs. Such designs measure causal effects of specific interventions by comparing outcomes with the interventions to outcomes in credible counterfactual scenarios. Good designs also identify the conditions under which the causal effect arises. Despite a critical need for empirical evidence, conservation science has been slow to adopt these impact evaluation designs. We identify reasons for the slow rate of adoption and provide suggestions for mainstreaming impact evaluation in nature conservation.

Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) has gained international attention over the past decade, as manifested in both United Nations policy discussions and hundreds of voluntary projects launched to earn carbon-offset credits. There are on-going discussions about whether and how projects should be integrated into national efforts under the Paris Agreement. One consideration is whether these projects have generated additional impacts over and above national policies and other conservation measures. To help inform these discussions, we compare the crediting baselines established ex-ante by voluntary REDD+ projects in the Brazilian Amazon to counterfactuals constructed ex-post based on the quasi-experimental synthetic control method. We find that the crediting baselines assume consistently higher deforestation than counterfactual forest loss in synthetic control sites. This gap is partially due to decreased deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon during the early implementation phase of the REDD+ projects considered here. This suggests that forest carbon finance must strike a balance between controlling conservation investment risk and ensuring the environmental integrity of carbon emission offsets. Relatedly, our results point to the need to better align project- and national-level carbon accounting.

Primary crops are linked to final consumption by networks of processes and actors that convert and distribute food and non-food goods. Achieving a sustainable metabolism of this bio-economy is an overarching challenge which manifests itself in a number of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Modelling the physical dimensions of biomass conversion and distribution networks is essential to understanding the characteristics, drivers and dynamics of our societies' biomass metabolism. In this paper, we present the Food and Agriculture Biomass Input-Output model (FABIO), a set of multi-regional supply, use and input-output tables in physical units, that document the complex flows of agricultural and food products in the global economy. The model assembles FAOSTAT statistics reporting crop production, trade, and utilisation in physical units, supplemented by data on technical and metabolic conversion efficiencies, into a consistent, balanced, input-output framework. FABIO covers 191 countries and 130 agriculture, food and forestry products from 1986 to 2013. The physical supply-use tables offered by FABIO provide a comprehensive, transparent and flexible structure for organising data representing flows of materials within metabolic networks. They allow tracing biomass flows and embodied environmental pressures along global supply chains at an unprecedented level of product and country detail and can help to answer a range of questions regarding environment, agriculture, and trade., Series: Ecological Economic Papers

More than forty states worldwide currently pursue explicit political strategies to expand and promote their bioeconomies. This paper assesses these strategies in the context of the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Our theoretical framework differentiates between four pathways of bioeconomic developments. The extent, to which bioeconomic developments along these pathways lead to increased sustainability, depends on the creation of effective governance mechanisms. We distinguish between enabling governance and constraining governance as the two fundamental political challenges in setting up an effective governance framework for a sustainable bioeconomy. Further, we lay out a taxonomy of political support measures (enabling governance) and regulatory tools (constraining governance) that states can use to confront these two political challenges. Guided by this theoretical framework, we conduct a qualitative content analysis of 41 national bioeconomy strategies to provide systematic answers to the question of how well designed the individual national bioeconomy strategies are to ensure the rise of a sustainable bioeconomy.

A rapidly growing share of global agricultural areas is devoted to the production of biomass for non - food purposes. The derived products include, for example, biofuels, textiles, detergents or c osmetics. Given the far - reaching global implications of an expanding non - food bioeconomy, an assessment of the bioeconomy's resource use from a footprint perspective is urgently needed. We determine the global cropland footprint of non - food products with a hybrid land flow accounting model combining data from the Food and Agriculture Organization and the multi - regional input - output model EXIOBASE. The globally interlinked model covers all cropland areas used for the production of crop - and animal - based non - food commodities for the years from 1995 to 2010. We analyse global patterns of raw material producers, processers and consumers of bio-based non-food products, with a particular focus on the European Union. Results illustrate that the EU is a major processer and the number one consumer region of non-food cropland, despite being only the fifth largest producing region. Two thirds of the cropland required to satisfy EU non-food consumption are located in other world regions, giving rise to a significant depe ndency on imported products and to potential impacts on distant ecosystems. With almost 29% in 2010, oilseed production, used to produce, for example, biofuels, detergents and polymers, represents the dominant share in the EU's non-food cropland footprint. There is also a significant contribution of more traditional non-food biomass uses such as fibre crops (for textiles) and animal hides and skins (for leather products). Our study emphasises the importance of comprehensively assessing the implications of the non-food bioeconomy expansion as envisaged in various policy strategies, such as the Bioeconomy Strategy of the European Commission.

A rapidly growing share of global agricultural areas is devoted to the production of biomass for non-food purposes. The derived products include, for example, biofuels, textiles, detergents or cosmetics. Given the far-reaching global implications of an expanding non-food bioeconomy, an assessment of the bioeconomy's resource use from a footprint perspective is urgently needed. We determine the global cropland footprint of non-food products with a hybrid land flow accounting model combining data from the Food and Agriculture Organization and the multi-regional input-output model EXIOBASE. The globally interlinked model covers all cropland areas used for the production of crop- and animal-based non-food commodities for the years from 1995 to 2010. We analyse global patterns of raw material producers, processers and consumers of bio-based non-food products, with a particular focus on the European Union. Results illustrate that the EU is a major processer and the number one consumer region of non-food cropland, despite being only the fifth largest producing region. Two thirds of the cropland required to satisfy EU non-food consumption are located in other world regions, giving rise to a significant dependency on imported products and to potential impacts on distant ecosystems. With almost 29% in 2010, oilseed production, used to produce, for example, biofuels, detergents and polymers, represents the dominant share in the EU's non-food cropland footprint. There is also a significant contribution of more traditional non-food biomass uses such as fibre crops (for textiles) and animal hides and skins (for leather products). Our study emphasises the importance of comprehensively assessing the implications of the non-food bioeconomy expansion as envisaged in various policy strategies, such as the Bioeconomy Strategy of the European Commission.

A rapidly growing share of global agricultural areas is devoted to the production of biomass for non-food purposes. The derived products include, for example, biofuels, textiles, detergents or cosmetics. Given the far-reaching global implications of an expanding non-food bioeconomy, an assessment of the bioeconomy’s resource use from a footprint perspective is urgently needed. We determine the global cropland footprint of non-food products with a hybrid land flow accounting model combining data from the Food and Agriculture Organization and the multi-regional input-output model EXIOBASE. The globally interlinked model covers all cropland areas used for the production of crop- and animal-based non-food commodities for the years from 1995 to 2010. We analyse global patterns of raw material producers, processers and consumers of bio-based non-food products, with a particular focus on the European Union. Results illustrate that the EU is a major processer and the number one consumer region of non-food cropland, despite being only the fifth largest producing region. Two thirds of the cropland required to satisfy EU non-food consumption are located in other world regions, giving rise to a significant dependency on imported products and to potential impacts on distant ecosystems. With almost 29% in 2010, oilseed production, used to produce, for example, biofuels, detergents and polymers, represents the dominant share in the EU’s non-food cropland footprint. There is also a significant contribution of more traditional non-food biomass uses such as fibre crops (for textiles) and animal hides and skins (for leather products). Our study emphasises the importance of comprehensively assessing the implications of the non-food bioeconomy expansion as envisaged in various policy strategies, such as the Bioeconomy Strategy of the European Commission.

We provide a sensitivity analysis of a 1% increase of intermediate input use of forestry biomass in all sectors of the EU28 in a global Computable General Equilibrium framework depicting land use by Agro-Ecological Zone combined with a rather high resolution with regard to sectors and regions. We find considerable indirect land use effects outside the EU28 despite the rather small shock which reflects the existing integration of global biomass markets. We conclude that policies promoting EU biomass use need to consider these indirect effects which offset, for instance, first order GHG savings from a substitution of fossil inputs by biomass.

An important part of conservation practice is the empirical evaluation of program and policy impacts. Understanding why conservation programs succeed or fail is essential for designing cost-effective initiatives and for improving the livelihoods of natural resource users. The evidence we seek can be generated with modern impact evaluation designs. Such designs measure causal effects of specific interventions by comparing outcomes with the interventions to outcomes in credible counterfactual scenarios. Good designs also identify the conditions under which the causal effect arises. Despite a critical need for empirical evidence, conservation science has been slow to adopt these impact evaluation designs. We identify reasons for the slow rate of adoption, and provide suggestions for mainstreaming impact evaluation in nature conservation.

How much do poor rural households rely on environmental extraction from natural ecosystems? And how does climate variability impact their livelihoods? This paper sheds light on these two questions with household income data from the Poverty and Environment Network pantropical data set, combined with climate data for the past three decades. The study finds that extraction of wild resources (from natural forests, bushlands, fallows, etc.) provides on average as much income (about 27 percent) as crops across the smallholder sample. The cross-section data on past reactions to household self-perceived economic shocks and observed production reactions to climate anomalies can, respectively, provide hints about livelihood vulnerability to current climate variability, which is likely to worsen with climate change. Forest extraction did not figure among the most favored response strategies to households’ self-perceived economic shocks, but households undertake subtle substitutions in sector production in response to weather anomalies that accentuate suboptimal climatic conditions for cropping. By relying more on forest extraction and wages, households compensate quite successfully for declining crop incomes. This paints a cautiously optimistic picture about fairly flexible rural livelihood reactions to current climate variability, and featuring forests as potentially important in household coping strategies.

Ethiopia's energy sector faces critical challenges to meeting steadily increasing demand given limited infrastructure, heavy reliance on hydroelectric power, and underdevelopment of alternative energy resources. The main aim of this paper is to investigate an optimal least cost investment decisions for integrated energy source diversification. We seek to contribute to the relevant literature by paying particular attention to the role of public policy for promoting renewable energy investment and to better understand future energy security implication of various uncertainties. Dynamic linear programming model created using General Algebraic Modelling Systems (GAMS) software was used to explore the national energy security implications of uncertainties associated with technological and efficiency innovations, and climate change or drought scenarios. To cope with the impacts of drought on hydroelectric power production Ethiopia would need to invest in the development of alternative energy resources. This would improve sustainability and reliability, but these changes would also increase production costs. But greater technical and efficiency innovations found to improve electricity diversification, reduce production costs and shadow prices or resources scarcity; and are, thus, key for reducing the risks posed by drought and for enhancing energy security.

Ethiopia’s energy sector faces critical challenges to meeting steadily increasing demand given limited infrastructure, heavy reliance on hydroelectric power, and underdevelopment of alternative energy resources. The main aim of this paper is to investigate an optimal least cost investment decisions for integrated energy source diversification. We seek to contribute to the relevant literature by paying particular attention to the role of public policy for promoting renewable energy investment and to better understand future energy security implication of various uncertainties. Dynamic linear programming model created using General Algebraic Modelling Systems (GAMS) software was used to explore the national energy security implications of uncertainties associated with technological and efficiency innovations, and climate change or drought scenarios. To cope with the impacts of drought on hydroelectric power production Ethiopia would need to invest in the development of alternative energy resources. This would improve sustainability and reliability, but these changes would also increase production costs. But greater technical and efficiency innovations found to improve electricity diversification, reduce production costs and shadow prices or resources scarcity; and are, thus, key for reducing the risks posed by drought and for enhancing energy security.

Modern bioenergy is a core ingredient of sustainable economic development as it plays an important role in poverty reduction and green growth. This makes bioenergy innovations critical, especially in developing countries where many households and rural communities rely on traditional bioenergy. Managing the multiple tradeoffs among bioenergy use, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem functions is a major development challenge. Addressing this challenge requires the identification of the drivers, tradeoffs and impacts of bioenergy production, trade and use in the Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus. The key objective of this paper is to provide an analytical framework and assess the track record of policy actions to stimulate modern bioenergy innovation in order to achieve multiple-win outcomes in terms of poverty alleviation, improved health and gender empowerment and environmental sustainability. We begin by describing the global trends and drivers in bioenergy production, trade and use. Secondly, we review the state of the art on impacts and links of bioenergy with the other Nexus components. Thirdly, we suggest a conceptual framework for evaluating the synergies and tradeoffs of bioenergy with other bioeconomic and economic activities along the Nexus. Follow-up empirical research at household and community levels in several developing countries will be based on this framework. Finally, a discussion on the conceptual framework is enriched by insights on the relevant actors, the tools and mechanisms specific to these actors for catalyzing innovations in the bioenergy for development.

Modern bioenergy is a core ingredient of sustainable economic development as it plays an important role in poverty reduction and green growth. This makes bioenergy innovations critical, especially in developing countries where many households and rural communities rely on traditional bioenergy. Managing the multiple tradeoffs among bioenergy use, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem functions is a major development challenge. Addressing this challenge requires the identification of the drivers, tradeoffs and impacts of bioenergy production, trade and use in the Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus. The key objective of this paper is to provide an analytical framework and assess the track record of policy actions to stimulate modern bioenergy innovation in order to achieve multiple-win outcomes in terms of poverty alleviation, improved health and gender empowerment and environmental sustainability. We begin by describing the global trends and drivers in bioenergy production, trade and use. Secondly, we review the state of the art on impacts and links of bioenergy with the other Nexus components. Thirdly, we suggest a conceptual framework for evaluating the synergies and tradeoffs of bioenergy with other bioeconomic and economic activities along the Nexus. Follow-up empirical research at household and community levels in several developing countries will be based on this framework. Finally, a discussion on the conceptual framework is enriched by insights on the relevant actors, the tools and mechanisms specific to these actors for catalyzing innovations in the bioenergy for development.

For applications in agricultural and environmental economics, complex ecological systems are often oversimplified to the extent that ecologists rarely consider model results valid. Recursive optimization of complex systems represents an alternative, but requires strong assumptions regarding time preference and uncertainty. In this paper we explore the implications of merely approximating “true” optima of complex dynamic optimization problems using a technique called simulation-optimization. We develop a standard discrete renewable resource use problem and solve it numerically using both simulation-optimization and non-linear mathematical programming. We subsequently introduce non-linearity and uncertainty and graphically compare the performance of simulation-optimization vis-à-vis non-linear programming in predicting optimal control and state variable paths. On the basis of this comparison we discuss potential non-formal test procedures that could be used to assess simulation-optimization solutions of more complex problems that do not allow for such comparisons. We find that simulation-optimization can be a useful exploratory optimization technique when standard numerical optimization approaches fail to find near optimal solutions. That said, modelers should be careful in designing management functions of simulationoptimization problems and test their functional forms for severe misspecifications.

Unanticipated events can cause considerable economic hardship for poor rural households. Some types of negative shocks, for example weather-related agricultural losses and vector-borne diseases, are expected to occur more frequently as a result of climate change. This paper measures the role of household- and location-specific characteristics in conditioning behavioral responses to idiosyncratic and covariate shocks. We use data from more than 8000 households in 25 developing countries, compiled in the global database of the Poverty Environment Network (PEN). We employ a hierarchical multinomial logit model to identify the importance of characteristics observed at different levels of aggregation on a set of responses to economic shocks. Results indicate that in response to idiosyncratic shocks, households tend to deplete financial and durable assets, whereas covariate shocks predominantly result in reduced consumption. Households in sites characterized by high asset wealth tend to respond to shocks more proactively than in sites with average or below average asset wealth; savings emerge as an important determinant of shock response behavior at the household level. We also find that a higher concentration of land ownership at the village level reduces the prevalence of natural resource-based coping strategies. Overall, rural households are less reliant on natural resource extraction for coping than expected from the case-study literature. Our findings have implications for rural development and climate change adaptation strategies.

Unanticipated events can cause considerable economic hardship for poor rural households. Some types of negative shocks, for example weather-related agricultural losses and vector-borne diseases, are expected to occur more frequently as a result of climate change. This paper measures the role of household- and location-specific characteristics in conditioning behavioral responses to idiosyncratic and covariate shocks. We use data from more than 8000 households in 25 developing countries, compiled in the global database of the Poverty Environment Network (PEN). We employ a hierarchical multinomial logit model to identify the importance of characteristics observed at different levels of aggregation on a set of responses to economic shocks. Results indicate that in response to idiosyncratic shocks, households tend to deplete financial and durable assets, whereas covariate shocks predominantly result in reduced consumption. Households in sites characterized by high asset wealth tend to respond to shocks more proactively than in sites with average or below average asset wealth; savings emerge as an important determinant of shock response behavior at the household level. We also find that a higher concentration of land ownership at the village level reduces the prevalence of natural resource-based coping strategies. Overall, rural households are less reliant on natural resource extraction for coping than expected from the case-study literature. Our findings have implications for rural development and climate change adaptation strategies.

En America Latina cada vez surgen mas esquemas de pagos por servicios ambientales (PSA) como un elemento de politica ambiental y getsion de los recursos naturales. A partir de una revision de casos seleccionados sobre PSA relacionados con la captura de carbono en esta region, este articulo identifica oportunidades y potenciales obstaculos para la integracion de PSA en programas nacionales y subnacionales en el ambito de las iniciativas de Reduccion de Emisiones derviadas de la Deforestacion y Degradacion Forestal (REDD). Todacia no existe una evicencia clara sobre la efectividad comparatica de los esquemas de PSA como instrumento independiente de conservacion de bosques. En muchos casos los pagos han sido implemntados junto a medidas regulatorias de derecho de uso de los recursos y/o asistencia al desarrollo local. Los costos de implementacion varian principalmente en funcion de la estrategia de intervencion de estos esquemas. Sin descartar efectos negativos asociados al desarrollo bajo condiciones especificas, los esquemas PSA se han mostrado costo-efectivos a la hora de lograr objectivos conservacionistas de forma compatible con objectivos sociales. La viabilidad economica del mecanismo de PSA bajo el esquema REDD parece promisoria, pero deficiencias en el ordenamiento territorial de los derechos de propiedad de las tierras forestales en la region todavia representan un gran obstaculo para su aplicabilidad a gran escala. In Latin America, payments for environmental services (PES) schemes play a steadily increasing role as elements of environmental policies and natural resource management approaches. PES follows the principles of conditional cash transfer, which many countries in the region have been applying for more than a decade in the form of national social assistance programs. In the environmental sector, nonetheless, few PES schemes have been up-scaled to the national level. Based on a selected set of Latin-American carbon payment schemes, this paper identifies opportunities and potential obstacles for the integration of PES in national and sub-national programs, such as those contemplated under a future Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) mechanism. Evidence on the effectiveness of PES as an independent forest conservation policy tool is limited to date. In most cases, payments have been introduced alongside other policies, such as land use right regulations and/or local development assistance. Implementation costs this vary predominantly depending on the intervention strategy. While negative development effects are possibly under specific conditions, conservation objectives have been achieved in a socially compatible manner in most of the reviewed cases. Both from an environmental and socioeconomic perspective, PES this appear promising, but unclear tenure conditions in the major share of Latin American forest land still represent an important obstacle to large scale carbon payment schemes.

En America Latina cada vez surgen mas esquemas de pagos por servicios ambientales (PSA) como un elemento de politica ambiental y getsion de los recursos naturales. A partir de una revision de casos seleccionados sobre PSA relacionados con la captura de carbono en esta region, este articulo identifica oportunidades y potenciales obstaculos para la integracion de PSA en programas nacionales y subnacionales en el ambito de las iniciativas de Reduccion de Emisiones derviadas de la Deforestacion y Degradacion Forestal (REDD). Todacia no existe una evicencia clara sobre la efectividad comparatica de los esquemas de PSA como instrumento independiente de conservacion de bosques. En muchos casos los pagos han sido implemntados junto a medidas regulatorias de derecho de uso de los recursos y/o asistencia al desarrollo local. Los costos de implementacion varian principalmente en funcion de la estrategia de intervencion de estos esquemas. Sin descartar efectos negativos asociados al desarrollo bajo condiciones especificas, los esquemas PSA se han mostrado costo-efectivos a la hora de lograr objectivos conservacionistas de forma compatible con objectivos sociales. La viabilidad economica del mecanismo de PSA bajo el esquema REDD parece promisoria, pero deficiencias en el ordenamiento territorial de los derechos de propiedad de las tierras forestales en la region todavia representan un gran obstaculo para su aplicabilidad a gran escala. In Latin America, payments for environmental services (PES) schemes play a steadily increasing role as elements of environmental policies and natural resource management approaches. PES follows the principles of conditional cash transfer, which many countries in the region have been applying for more than a decade in the form of national social assistance programs. In the environmental sector, nonetheless, few PES schemes have been up-scaled to the national level. Based on a selected set of Latin-American carbon payment schemes, this paper identifies opportunities and potential obstacles for the integration of PES in national and sub-national programs, such as those contemplated under a future Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) mechanism. Evidence on the effectiveness of PES as an independent forest conservation policy tool is limited to date. In most cases, payments have been introduced alongside other policies, such as land use right regulations and/or local development assistance. Implementation costs this vary predominantly depending on the intervention strategy. While negative development effects are possibly under specific conditions, conservation objectives have been achieved in a socially compatible manner in most of the reviewed cases. Both from an environmental and socioeconomic perspective, PES this appear promising, but unclear tenure conditions in the major share of Latin American forest land still represent an important obstacle to large scale carbon payment schemes.

Savannas cover the greater part of Africa and Australia and almost half of South America and contribute to the livelihoods of more than 350 million people. With the intensification of land use during the second half of the 20th century, savannas have become increasingly degraded through bush encroachment as a consequence of increased grazing pressure. Research on rangeland dynamics, however, provides contradicting answers with regard to the causes and possible remedies of bush encroachment. In this paper we present results from an application of a simulation-optimization model to the case of extensive rangeland management in South Africa. Our model differs from previous approaches in that it explicitly accounts for the influence of stochastic prices and rainfall on economically optimal management decisions. By showing the implications of neglecting price variation and stochasticity in rangeland models we provide new insights with regard to the determinants of bush encroachment and rangeland managers' economic utility. We demonstrate that, in the case of South Africa, optimal rangeland management is likely to lead to bush encroachment that eventually makes livestock holding unprofitable. Yet, we identify the costs of fire management to be a limiting factor for managers to counteract bush encroachment and explore the impact of policy measures to reduce fire control costs on the ecological and economic sustainability of livestock holding.

Governing land use to achieve sustainable outcomes is challenging, because land systems manifest complex land use spillovers—i.e. processes by which land use changes or direct interventions in land use (e.g. policy, program, new technologies) in one place have impacts on land use in another place. The ERL issue 'Focus on Leakage: informing Land-Use Governance in a Tele-coupled World' builds on discussions in an international expert workshop conducted in Berlin in November 2017 to explore innovative ways to improve our understanding of how governance interventions, new technologies and other factors can affect land-use change both directly and indirectly through spillovers. This editorial starts by clarifying the definitions and relationships between land-use spillover, indirect land use change—a form of spillover where land use change in one place is caused by land use change in another place—leakage—a form of land use spillover, which is caused by an environmental policy (e.g. a conservation or restoration intervention), and the spillover reduces the overall benefits and effectiveness of this intervention—, and land use displacement processes. We then use this terminology to summarize the individual contributions of this special issue and conclude with lessons learned as well as directions for future research., Environmental Research Letters, 15 (9), ISSN:1748-9326, ISSN:1748-9318

Over the last few decades rapid advances in processes to collect, monitor, disclose, and disseminate information have contributed towards the development of entirely new modes of sustainability governance for global commodity supply chains. However, there has been very little critical appraisal of the contribution made by different transparency initiatives to sustainability and the ways in which they can (and cannot) influence new governance arrangements. Here we seek to strengthen the theoretical underpinning of research and action on supply chain transparency by addressing four questions: (1) What is meant by supply chain transparency? (2) What is the relevance of supply chain transparency to supply chain sustainability governance? (3) What is the current status of supply chain transparency, and what are the strengths and weaknesses of existing initiatives? and (4) What propositions can be advanced for how transparency can have a positive transformative effect on the governance interventions that seek to strengthen sustainability outcomes? We use examples from agricultural supply chains and the zero-deforestation agenda as a focus of our analysis but draw insights that are relevant to the transparency and sustainability of supply chains in general. We propose a typology to distinguish among types of supply chain information that are needed to support improvements in sustainability governance, and illustrate a number of major shortfalls and systematic biases in existing information systems. We also propose a set of ten propositions that, taken together, serve to expose some of the potential pitfalls and undesirable outcomes that may result from (inevitably) limited or poorly designed transparency systems, whilst offering guidance on some of the ways in which greater transparency can make a more effective, lasting and positive contribution to sustainability., World Development, 121, ISSN:0305-750X

Tropical deforestation contributes to climate change and entails further environmental externalities such as biodiversity loss and soil erosion. Consequently, the preservation of the world’s remaining tropical forests is the objective of international and national policies. Preventing deforestation requires identifying the structural causes of deforestation. Reforms of political institutions and fiscal policies bear the potential to reduce deforestation more structurally than localized protected areas. Such efforts are particularly relevant in countries with weak political institutions, low levels of economic development, and an economic specialization in the agricultural sector. The first part of this dissertation contributes to the understanding of the role of political institutions in deforestation processes with chapter 2 and 3. Chapter 2 presents the results of a meta-analysis of the empirical cross-country literature on the effect of governance improvements on deforestation. The analysis finds that the choice of the governance measure is the main source of variation that explains diverging study outcomes. In particular, it can be shown that variables that measure the specific effects of environmental governance increase the likelihood of a study to find a deforestation reducing outcome, whereas the general governance variables democracy and civic rights decrease the likelihood. Furthermore, it can be shown that additional elements of study design, notably the choice of the control variable and the estimation technique, significantly influence the study outcome. Chapter 3 uses a forest model in order to analyze whether the model’s ability to correctly predict past deforestation trends can be improved by taking differences in the quality of political institutions across countries into account. An index measuring the ability of a country to guarantee the sustainable management of natural resources is constructed. Subsequently, it is tested empirically whether the index can explain the gap between modelled and observed deforestation trends. The results show that building the indicator into the model can reduce this gap and thus improve the model. The second part of this dissertation analyzes forest conservation policy options for countries with weak political institutions with chapter 4 and 5. Chapter 4 uses content analysis to analyze how African policy makers perceive deforestation drivers. It can be shown that policy makers emphasize the role of institutional and policy drivers of deforestation. Furthermore, it can be shown that these problems correspond to concrete opportunities for interventions, such as increased funding for forest sector administrations, improved alignment of different policies, or land tenure right reforms. Chapter 5 uses a theoretical model to analyze the effects of a policy mix that combines export tariffs on agricultural commodities with public investments. Public investments are defined as investments that increase agricultural productivity. The model shows that export tariffs and public investments can be combined, such that the output level in the agricultural sector remains constant, while deforestation and domestic food prices are reduced. Common insights and the broader significance of the research conducted in the context of this dissertation are discussed in the last chapter. In particular, it is discussed how international forest conservation programs can support institutional and fiscal reforms for forest conservation. Die Abholzung tropischer Wälder trägt zum Klimawandel bei und bringt weitere Externalitäten wie Bodenerosion und den Verlust von Artenvielfalt mit sich. Der Schutz bestehender Waldflächen ist darum international und in vielen Ländern ein politisches Ziel geworden. Um den Verlust der verbleibenden tropischen Wälder zu verhindern, ist es notwendig die strukturellen Ursachen von Entwaldung zu identifizieren. Reformen von politischen Institutionen und Fiskalpolitiken bergen ein größeres Potential, Entwaldung strukturell zu reduzieren, als eine Fokussierung auf lokal begrenzte Naturschutzgebiete. Solche Reformen sind besonders relevant für Länder mit schwachen politischen Institutionen, niedrigen Einkommensniveaus und einem stark ausgeprägten landwirtschaftlichen Sektor. Der erste Teil dieser Dissertation trägt mit Kapitel 2 und 3 zum Verständnis der Rolle von politischen Institutionen in Entwaldungsprozessen bei. Kapitel 2 beinhaltet die Ergebnisse einer Metastudie der empirischen Literatur zum Effekt von politischen Institutionen auf Entwaldung. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Wahl des Maßes für Governance die Hauptursache für divergierende Studienergebnisse ist. Studien, die spezifisch den Effekt von Umweltgovernance untersuchen, finden mit einer höheren Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass Entwaldung durch verbesserte Governance reduziert wird. Die Nutzung von allgemeineren Governancemaßen hingegen senkt die Wahrscheinlichkeit, einen positiven Effekt von Governance auf Entwaldung zu finden. Die Studie zeigt darüber hinaus, dass weitere Elemente des Studiendesigns, so wie die Auswahl der Kontrollvariablen und des Schätzverfahrens die Ergebnisse signifikant beeinflussen. In Kapitel 3 wird ein Forstmodell genutzt um zu untersuchen, ob beobachtete Entwaldungstrends besser vorhergesagt werden können, wenn Unterschiede in der Qualität von politischen Institutionen berücksichtigt werden. Hierfür wird ein Index konstruiert, mit dem die Fähigkeit eines Landes gemessen wird, natürliche Ressourcen nachhaltig zu verwalten. Es wird empirisch untersucht, ob durch den Index die Diskrepanz zwischen Modellschätzung und beobachteter Entwaldung reduziert werden kann. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass diese Diskrepanz reduziert werden kann, wenn der Indikator in das Modell eingebaut wird. Der zweite Teil der Dissertation untersucht politische Handlungsoptionen für Waldschutz in Ländern mit schwachen Institutionen in Kapitel 4 und 5. In Kapitel 4 wird mit einer Inhaltsanalyse untersucht, wie afrikanische Entscheidungsträger Entwaldungstreiber wahrnehmen. Es kann gezeigt werden, dass die Entscheidungsträger die Schwäche von politischen Institutionen als eine zentrale Ursache von Entwaldung identifizieren. Die Analyse zeigt konkrete Möglichkeiten auf, institutionelle Probleme zu adressieren, zum Beispiel durch eine gestärkte Finanzierung von Forstverwaltungen, bessere Koordination von unterschiedlichen Politiken, oder Landrechtsreformen. Kapitel 5 nutzt ein theoretisches Modell, um die Effekte eines Politikmixes zu untersuchen, der Exportzölle auf landwirtschaftliche Güter mit öffentlichen Investitionen kombiniert. Öffentliche Investitionen sind in diesem Kontext als Investitionen definiert, die zu einem Anstieg in landwirtschaftlicher Produktivität führen. Das Modell zeigt, dass Exportzölle und öffentliche Investitionen so kombiniert werden können, dass das Produktionsniveau im Exportsektor konstant bleibt, während Entwaldung und inländische Nahrungsmittelpreise gesenkt werden. Kapitelübergreifende Schlussfolgerungen und die allgemeinere Bedeutung der Ergebnisse werden im letzten Kapitel diskutiert. Es wird insbesondere thematisiert, inwiefern institutionelle und fiskalpolitische Reformen im Kontext internationaler Waldschutzprogramme umgesetzt werden können.

Particularly threatened and sheltering the most species-rich habitats worldwide, tropical forests are increasingly monitored and targeted by conservation strategies. One of these strategies, land use zoning, consists of segmenting the landscape into units where human access and uses are restricted to specific activities or agents, such as protection or production activities or community management. Via two case studies, Cameroon and Bhutan, we assessed the effectiveness of national-scale land use zoning in contributing to forest conservation. Firstly, we assessed forest cover changes using remote sensing imagery and a change detection combining classifications with image differencing on spectral indices. We observed limited forest cover changes in our Cameroon study site, with a net forest gain during the 2000s. For Bhutan, we showed that, nation-wide, forests experienced only limited land cover changes between 1990 and 2011. A small net decrease during the 1990s was followed by a comparable net increase during the 2000s. Secondly, effectiveness assessments were performed using statistical matching, which consisted of pairing areas under specific zoning with similar areas outside zoning. In Cameroon, units included in the permanent forest estate succeeded at deterring forest loss, with logging concessions even curtailing forest degradation. In Bhutan, both protected areas and forest production units contributed to forest conservation. This thesis gave clear evidence that restricting land uses in forestlands dedicated to timber extraction can also participate in forest protection if proper management is enforced. This advocated for a less uniform vision of tropical forest conservation, still largely dominated by protected areas. (SC - Sciences) -- UCL, 2016

O nordeste paraense está entre as primeiras regiões da Amazônia a receber projetos de indução a ocupação. Suas formas de uso da terra intensamente voltadas para a produção agrícola desencadeou no decorrer do tempo uma descaracterização da paisagem natural, comprometimento de recursos naturais e alteração em processos naturais. Atualmente, a região é considerada a de paisagem mais degradada da Amazônia podendo ser tomada como exemplo pelas áreas de fronteira agrícola. Nesse contexto, este trabalho enfoca duas mesobacias hidrográficas localizadas no nordeste paraense em parcelas dos municípios de Igarapé-Açu e Marapanim, com o objetivo de compreender a dinâmica de uso da terra existente, assim como suas tendências futuras enfatizando suas prováveis consequências sobre os recursos naturais. O estudo adotou técnicas de sensoriamento remoto para obtenção de informações sobre a dinâmica de uso da terra tendo como base imagens Landsat/TM referentes aos anos de 1984, 1994, 1999, 2004 e 2008. A partir da dinâmica de uso resultante, foram aplicados ferramentas de modelagem para geração de cenários futuros de uso da terra; também foram realizadas análises de custo de oportunidade em algumas culturas agrícolas no intuito de discutir prováveis alternativas às formas de uso existentes. Os resultados apresentam os cenários gerados para o ano de 2020 para as duas mesobacias estudadas; enfoca os impactos que podem decorrer a partir dos diferentes cenários gerados e ressaltam, ainda, a necessidade de projetos que considerem aspectos econômicos e sociais locais de maneira que atividades de produção e conservação possam ser complementares e não contrárias o que pode ser viabilizado com apoio técnico e cientifico e vontade política. The northeastern Pará is among the first regions of the Amazon receiving projects for induction occupation. Their forms of land use intensely focused on agricultural production triggered in the course of time a distortion of the natural landscape, natural resources and commitment to change in natural processes. Currently, the region is considered the most degraded landscape of the Amazon may be an example for areas frontier agricultural. Thus, this work focused on two river basins located between the towns of Igarapé-Açu and Marapanim in the northeastern region of the State of Pará, with the aim of understanding the dynamics of existing land uses, as well as its future trends, emphasizing their likely consequences on natural resources. The study adopted remote sensing techniques to obtain information about the dynamics of land use based on Landsat-TM image for the years 1984, 1994, 1999, 2004 and 2008. From the resulting use of dynamics, modeling tools were applied to generate future scenarios of land use, were also analyzed in terms of opportunity cost in some agricultural crops in order to discuss probable alternatives to existing forms of use. The results present the scenarios generated for the year 2020 for the two river basins studied; focuses on the impacts that may arise from the different scenarios generated and also highlight the need for projects that take into account local economic and social activities so that production and conservation can be complementary and not opposing, which can be built with technical and scientific support and political will.