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Background: Insulin-like growth factor–binding protein-7 (IGFBP-7) has been proposed as a potential prognostic biomarker in heart failure (HF), but the association between elevation in IGFBP-7 and HF outcomes in ambulant patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is unknown. Objectives: The authors addressed this question in a post hoc analysis of the DAPA-HF (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure) trial. Methods: The primary outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death or a worsening HF event. The risk of adverse outcome was compared across tertiles of IGFBP-7 concentration by means of Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT). The efficacy of randomized treatment across IGFBP-7 tertiles was assessed. Change in IGFBP-7 at 12 months was compared with the use of geometric means. Results: A total of 3,158 patients had IGFBP-7 measured at baseline, and 2,493 had a repeated measure at 12 months. Patients in the highest tertile of IGFBP-7 had evidence of more advanced HFrEF. The adjusted HR for the primary endpoint in tertile 3, compared with tertile 1, was 1.48 (95% CI: 1.17-1.88). There was no modification of the benefit of dapagliflozin by baseline IGFBP-7 (P interaction = 0.34). Dapagliflozin did not change IGFBP-7 levels over 1 year (P = 0.34). Conclusions: Higher IGFBP-7 in patients with HFrEF was associated with worse clinical profile and an increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes. IGFBP-7 provided prognostic information incremental to clinical variables, NT-proBNP, and hsTnT. The benefit of dapagliflozin was not modulated by IGFBP-7 level.

Heart failure is a common, debilitating and life limiting disease, resulting in a large burden for both the individual patient and healthcare provision. Therefore, optimisation of treatments for these patients is of prime importance. Heart failure with reduced ejection fraction has a large evidence base for effective treatments, and more recently effective treatments have started to be identified for those with preserved ejection fraction. The effectiveness of these treatments is calculated at a population level, and there is a great deal of interest to try and identify if different patients may benefit more from certain treatments. In addition, we wish to understand more about different phenotypes in heart failure, to help understand what the patient might expect for the trajectory of their illness and potentially develop targeted treatments. To explore these issues further, this thesis presents several approaches using heart failure clinical trial data to try and further understand the patient journey and explore how treatment may be delivered in a more personalised fashion. The first analyses look at the patterns of heart failure hospitalisations, including the timing of admissions, and the relationship with different modes of death. This was examined in both heart failure with preserved and reduced ejection fraction. The accepted trajectory of recurrent admissions falling closer together over time was confirmed, and admissions closer together were linked to a higher risk of cardiovascular death, particularly due to progressive pump failure. Sudden death did appear to be truly sudden and not strongly linked to hospitalisations. The next approach was to perform latent class analysis to try and identify clusters of patients, or phenotypes, within heart failure with preserved and reduced ejection fraction separately using a data driven method. Phenotypes were identified with consistency across different data and using different approaches. These phenotypes were clinically recognisable. Identifying phenotypes in this way may be a route to looking for differential responses to treatments. Lastly, supervised machine learning methods were used to predict outcomes in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction. These techniques provide more analytical flexibility, but did not show performance benefit compared with prognostic models based on survival analysis methods. Overall, the predictive abilities were modest. In conclusion, several avenues were explored to help understand the patient journey in heart failure, aiming to give more detail about the expected patient trajectory and exploring methods to examine for differential treatment responses in phenotypes of patients in heart failure.

No abstract available.

Background: In a post hoc analysis, the frequency of occurrence of an early decline ("dip") in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) after initiation of dapagliflozin, and its association with outcomes, was evaluated in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) randomized in the Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse outcomes in Heart Failure trial. Methods: HFrEF patients with or without type 2 diabetes and an eGFR ≥30 mL/min/1.73m2 were randomized to placebo or dapagliflozin 10mg daily. The primary outcome was the composite of worsening heart failure or cardiovascular death. The extent of the dip in eGFR between baseline and 2 weeks, patient characteristics associated with a >10% decline, and cardiovascular outcomes and eGFR slopes in participants experiencing this decline were investigated. Time-to-event outcomes were assessed in Cox regression from 14 days; eGFR slopes were assessed using repeated measure mixed effect models. Results: The mean change in eGFR between day 0 and 14 was -1.1 ml/min/1.73m2 (95% CI -1.5,-0.7) with placebo and -4.2 ml/min/1.73m2 (-4.6,-3.9) with dapagliflozin, giving a between treatment difference of 3.1 (2.6, 3.7) ml/min/1.73m2. The proportions of patients randomized to dapagliflozin experiencing a >10%, >20% and >30% decline in eGFR were: 38.2%, 12.6%, and 3.4%, respectively; for placebo they were 21.0%, 6.4% and 1.3%, respectively. The odds ratio for a >10% early decline in eGFR with dapagliflozin, compared with placebo, was 2.36 (95%CI 2.07-2.69), P10% decline in eGFR on dapagliflozin were older age, lower eGFR, higher ejection fraction, and type 2 diabetes. The hazard ratio for the primary outcome in patients in the placebo group experiencing a >10% decline in eGFR, compared with ≤10% decline in eGFR was 1.45 (95% CI 1.19-1.78). The corresponding hazard ratio in the dapagliflozin group was 0.73 (95% CI 0.59-0.91), P-interaction 10% initial decline in eGFR was not associated with greater long-term decline in eGFR or more adverse events. Conclusions: The average dip in eGFR after starting dapagliflozin was small and associated with better clinical outcomes, compared with a similar decline on placebo in patients with HFrEF. Large declines in eGFR were uncommon with dapagliflozin.

Aims: \ud The new Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation for estimating glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), based on serum creatinine, that does not incorporate race may reclassify individuals, irrespective of race, from one eGFR category to another, with implications for eligibility for treatments in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).\ud \ud Methods and results: \ud A total of 43,138 ambulatory patients with HFrEF from 12 clinical trials were included (mean age 64.3 years; 9,580 (22.2%) women). Mean eGFR was 67 (SD 21) ml/min/1.73m2 and 70 (SD 21) ml/min/1.73m2 using the original and new CKD-EPI equations, respectively (mean difference 3.20 [95%CI, 3.17-3.23] ml/min/1.73m2, P

No abstract available.

Aims: The new Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation for estimating glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), based on serum creatinine, that does not incorporate race may reclassify individuals, irrespective of race, from one eGFR category to another, with implications for eligibility for treatments in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Methods and results: A total of 43 138 ambulatory patients with HFrEF from 12 clinical trials were included (mean age 64.3 years; 9580 [22.2%] women). Mean eGFR was 67 (standard deviation [SD] 21) ml/min/1.73 m2 and 70 (SD 21) ml/min/1.73 m2 using the original and new CKD-EPI equations, respectively (mean difference 3.20 ml/min/1.73 m2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.17–3.23, p < 0.001). Of the 935 patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages 4 or 5, identified using the original equation, 309 (33.0%) were reclassified to CKD stages 1–3 (eGFR ≥30 ml/min/1.73 m2) with the new equation. However, the opposite was observed among the 2521 Black patients (5.8%) included, with a reduction in mean eGFR from 75 to 68 ml/min/1.73 m2 using the original and new equations, respectively (mean difference 6.94 ml/min/1.73 m2, [95% CI 6.82–7.06], p < 0.001). The number of Black patients with an eGFR 2 increased from 49 (1.9%) using the original equation to 71 (2.8%) with the new equation. Conclusions: The new CKD-EPI creatinine equation reclassified CKD stage in a large proportion of patients with HFrEF enrolled in clinical trials. As eGFR is an essential determinant of eligibility for several key pharmacological therapies in HFrEF, this reclassification could result in a substantial change in the proportion of patients considered eligible for such therapies and reduce the proportion of eligible Black patients.

Background:\ud \ud Coronary ostial stenosis is an uncommon but potentially lethal complication following aortic root replacement with or without aortic valve replacement (including Bentall and David procedures). This manifests clinically as acute myocardial ischaemia in the early or late post-operative period. Traditionally, this might be managed with redo open-heart surgery.\ud Case summary: \ud \ud This case series describes two presentations where urgent percutaneous coronary intervention was used to manage myocardial infarction complicating aortic root surgery with coronary reimplantation.\ud Discussion:\ud \ud This series highlights the risk of acute myocardial infarction after cardiac surgery involving coronary reimplantation. Emergency percutaneous coronary intervention is feasible and illustrates the importance of shared post-operative care involving the cardiac surgeons and the cardiology team.

Background: Common carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) and ankle brachial pressure index (ABPI) are used as surrogate marker of atherosclerosis, and have been shown to correlate with arterial stiffness, however their correlation with global atherosclerotic burden has not been previously assessed. We compare CIMT and ABPI with atheroma burden as measured by whole body magnetic resonance angiography (WB-MRA). Methods: 50 patients with symptomatic peripheral arterial disease were recruited. CIMT was measured using ultrasound while rest and exercise ABPI were performed. WB-MRA was performed in a 1.5T MRI scanner using 4 volume acquisitions with a divided dose of intravenous gadolinium gadoterate meglumine (Dotarem, Guerbet, FR). The WB-MRA data was divided into 31 anatomical arterial segments with each scored according to degree of luminal narrowing: 0 = normal, 1 = < 50%, 2 = 50-70%, 3 = 70-99%, 4 = vessel occlusion. The segment scores were summed and from this a standardized atheroma score was calculated. Results: The atherosclerotic burden was high with a standardised atheroma score of 39.5±11. Common CIMT showed a positive correlation with the whole body atheroma score (β 0.32, p = 0.045), however this was due to its strong correlation with the neck and thoracic segments (β 0.42 p = 0.01) with no correlation with the rest of the body. ABPI correlated with the whole body atheroma score (β -0.39, p = 0.012), which was due to a strong correlation with the ilio-femoral vessels with no correlation with the thoracic or neck vessels. On multiple linear regression, no correlation between CIMT and global atheroma burden was present (β 0.13 p = 0.45), while the correlation between ABPI and atheroma burden persisted (β -0.45 p = 0.005). Conclusion: ABPI but not CIMT correlates with global atheroma burden as measured by whole body contrast enhanced magnetic resonance angiography in a population with symptomatic peripheral arterial disease. However this is primarily due to a strong correlation with ilio-femoral atheroma burden.