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Synaptic loss occurs early in many neurodegenerative diseases and contributes to cognitive impairment even in the absence of gross atrophy. Currently, for human disease there are few formal models to explain how cortical networks underlying cognition are affected by synaptic loss. We advocate that biophysical models of neurophysiology offer both a bridge from clinical to preclinical models of pathology, and quantitative assays for experimental medicine. Such biophysical models can also disclose hidden neuronal dynamics generating neurophysiological observations like electro- and magneto-encephalography (MEG). Here, we augment a biophysically informed mesoscale model of human cortical function by inclusion of synaptic density estimates as captured by [11C]UCB-J positron emission tomography, and provide insights into how regional synapse loss affects neurophysiology. We use the primary tauopathy of progressive supranuclear palsy (Richardson’s syndrome) as an exemplar condition, with high clinicopathological correlations. Progressive supranuclear palsy causes a marked change in cortical neurophysiology in the presence of mild atrophy and is associated with a decline in cognitive functions associated with the frontal lobe. Using (parametric empirical) Bayesian inversion of a conductance-based canonical microcircuit model of MEG data, we show that the inclusion of regional synaptic density—as a subject-specific prior on laminar specific neuronal populations—markedly increases model evidence. Specifically, model comparison suggests that a reduction in synaptic density in inferior frontal cortex affects superficial and granular layer glutamatergic excitation. This predicted individual differences in behaviour, demonstrating the link between synaptic loss, neurophysiology, and cognitive deficits. The method we demonstrate is not restricted to progressive supranuclear palsy or the effects of synaptic loss: such pathology-enriched dynamic causal models can be used to assess the mechanisms of other neurological disorders, with diverse non-invasive measures of pathology, and is suitable to test the effects of experimental pharmacology.

The clinical syndromes caused by frontotemporal lobar degeneration are heterogeneous, including the behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD) and progressive supranuclear palsy. Although pathologically distinct, they share many behavioural, cognitive and physiological features, which may in part arise from common deficits of major neurotransmitters such as γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA). Here, we quantify the GABAergic impairment and its restoration with dynamic causal modelling of a double-blind placebo-controlled crossover pharmaco-magnetoencephalography study. We analysed 17 patients with bvFTD, 15 patients with progressive supranuclear palsy, and 20 healthy age- and gender-matched controls. In addition to neuropsychological assessment and structural MRI, participants undertook two magnetoencephalography sessions using a roving auditory oddball paradigm: once on placebo and once on 10 mg of the oral GABA reuptake inhibitor tiagabine. A subgroup underwent ultrahigh-field magnetic resonance spectroscopy measurement of GABA concentration, which was reduced among patients. We identified deficits in frontotemporal processing using conductance-based biophysical models of local and global neuronal networks. The clinical relevance of this physiological deficit is indicated by the correlation between top-down connectivity from frontal to temporal cortex and clinical measures of cognitive and behavioural change. A critical validation of the biophysical modelling approach was evidence from parametric empirical Bayes analysis that GABA levels in patients, measured by spectroscopy, were related to posterior estimates of patients’ GABAergic synaptic connectivity. Further evidence for the role of GABA in frontotemporal lobar degeneration came from confirmation that the effects of tiagabine on local circuits depended not only on participant group, but also on individual baseline GABA levels. Specifically, the phasic inhibition of deep cortico-cortical pyramidal neurons following tiagabine, but not placebo, was a function of GABA concentration. The study provides proof-of-concept for the potential of dynamic causal modelling to elucidate mechanisms of human neurodegenerative disease, and explains the variation in response to candidate therapies among patients. The laminar- and neurotransmitter-specific features of the modelling framework, can be used to study other treatment approaches and disorders. In the context of frontotemporal lobar degeneration, we suggest that neurophysiological restoration in selected patients, by targeting neurotransmitter deficits, could be used to bridge between clinical and preclinical models of disease, and inform the personalized selection of drugs and stratification of patients for future clinical trials., Using biophysical modelling of data from controls and FTLD patients, on and off a GABAergic drug, combined with GABA spectroscopy, Adams et al. show that the potential restoration of neurotransmission in neurodegeneration depends on the degree of disruption to baseline physiology.