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Mendelian randomization (MR) is a method of studying the causal effects of modifiable exposures (i.e., potential risk factors) on health, social, and economic outcomes using genetic variants associated with the specific exposures of interest. MR provides a more robust understanding of the influence of these exposures on outcomes because germline genetic variants are randomly inherited from parents to offspring and, as a result, should not be related to potential confounding factors that influence exposure-outcome associations. The genetic variant can therefore be used as a tool to link the proposed risk factor and outcome, and to estimate this effect with less confounding and bias than conventional epidemiological approaches. We describe the scope of MR, highlighting the range of applications being made possible as genetic data sets and resources become larger and more freely available. We outline the MR approach in detail, covering concepts, assumptions, and estimation methods. We cover some common misconceptions, provide strategies for overcoming violation of assumptions, and discuss future prospects for extending the clinical applicability, methodological innovations, robustness, and generalizability of MR findings.

In the absence of strong incentive schemes, public service delivery crucially depends on bureaucrat selection. Despite being widely adopted by governments to screen candidates, it is unclear whether civil service examinations can predict job performance. This paper investigates this question by focusing on a highly prestigious and influential set of bureaucrats in Brazil: state judges. We first explore data on judges' monthly output and cross-court movement to separately identify what share of observed performance is explained by judges and courts. We estimate that judges account for at least 23% of the observed variation in the number of cases disposed. Using a novel data set on examinations, we then show that, within cohorts of candidates taking the same exam, those with higher grades perform better than their lower-ranked peers. Our results suggest that competitive examinations can be an effective way to screen candidates, even among highly qualified contenders.

This paper proposes new holding horizon (HH) measures of active management, and examines the relation between horizon and manager skill. Our HH measures identify, in the cross-section, funds with better long-term alphas, while reported turnover identifies, in the time-series, when a particular fund is likely to exhibit a higher alpha in the short run. This superior long-term performance of long HH funds is due to their superior skills in picking stocks with higher future cash-flow growth. Moreover, stocks largely held by long-horizon funds outperform stocks largely held by short-horizon funds by 2.4%-3.8% per year, adjusted for risk, over the following five-year period.

Coastal flood risk is expected to increase as a result of climate change effects, such as sea level rise, and socioeconomic growth. To support policymakers in making adaptation decisions, accurate flood risk assessments that account for the influence of complex adaptation processes on the developments of risks are essential. In this study, we integrate the dynamic adaptive behavior of homeowners within a flood risk modeling framework. Focusing on building-level adaptation and flood insurance, the agent-based model (DYNAMO) is benchmarked with empirical data for New York City, USA. The model simulates the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and frequently proposed reforms to evaluate their effectiveness. The model is applied to a case study of Jamaica Bay, NY. Our results indicate that risk-based premiums can improve insurance penetration rates and the affordability of insurance compared to the baseline NFIP market structure. While a premium discount for disaster risk reduction incentivizes more homeowners to invest in dry-floodproofing measures, it does not significantly improve affordability. A low interest rate loan for financing risk-mitigation investments improves the uptake and affordability of dry-floodproofing measures. The benchmark and sensitivity analyses demonstrate how the behavioral component of our model matches empirical data and provides insights into the underlying theories and choices that autonomous agents make.

Este trabajo pretende mostrar, por unlado, la necesidad de priorizar los cuidadoscomo necesidad básica para el sostenimientode la vida y la sociedad; porotro lado, el desigual reparto entre quienesproporcionan y quienes reciben esoscuidados, basado, fundamentalmente, enel sistema sexo-género. Para ello, se aplicael marco teórico de la ética del cuidadoy se proporcionan argumentos y datosempíricos acerca de las consecuenciasque tienen sobre las mujeres circunstanciascomo la maternidad, la crianza o elcuidado de personas en situación de dependencia.

Technology market has been proposed to benefit technology development and increase productivity, and there is a growing interest on technology market in recent years. However, there is little specific guidance documented the link between patent-based measures and patent collateral. Therefore, the purpose of this article attempts to investigate how patent-based measures and patents used as collateral are related. This article employed eight frequently used patent-based measures categorized into three dimensions, i.e., knowledge flow, technological diversity, and legal protection, to analyze which factors increase patent collateral likelihood and patent collateral speed. The results of this article shows that reference count, times cited count, originality index, generality index, claim count, and family size all increase patent collateral likelihood. On the other hand, reference count, nonpatent reference count, originality index, claim count, and family size accelerate patent collateral speed.

This article proposes a methodology to calculate the effect of moral hazard on short term credit (working capital) to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The methodology incorporates four categories of moral hazard ratio defined in a previous study, which are employed to determine probability of default based on a logit model. To this end, a novel Colombian database is used to calculate a moral hazard index that considers the percentages of the odds ratios of the moral hazard variables for positive coefficients on the probabilities of default. The empirical analysis result in an index measuring the impact of moral hazard on odds ratio mainly based on underinvestment moral hazard category in the sample of analyzed companies for the period ranged from 2007 to 2014.

The planning fallacy is at play in projects when optimism bias and/or strategic misrepresentation are present. We examine the cost performance of approximately US$ 6.5 billion worth of social infrastructure projects that were procured in Hong Kong and specifically the differences between their final accounts and the various types of estimates that were prepared prior to construction. We focus on the (honest) planning fallacy and hence aim to determine whether estimates are more optimistic than actual costs. Our data shows that 43% of projects incurred a cost underrun from their contract award. We therefore infer that at best 57% of projects may be explained by the presence of the planning fallacy. Based on our findings, we argue that optimism and pessimism bias coexist. Likewise, the planning fallacy and competing explanations can simultaneously account for cost deviations in social infrastructure projects. We submit that the prevalence of the planning fallacy has been exaggerated and hence provide an explanation as to why this has occurred. We finally suggest there is a need for additional empirical work to test the claim that the planning fallacy is the underlying cause of cost overruns and thus the best “theory” to explain “how projects work.”

To manage the risk of insurance companies, a reinsurance transaction is among the myriad risk management mechanisms the top ranked choice. In this paper, we study the design of optimal reinsurance contracts within a risk measure minimization framework and subject to the Vajda condition. The Vajda condition requires the reinsurer to take an increasing proportion of the loss when it increases and therefore imposes constraints on the indemnity function. The distortion-risk-measure-based objective function is very generic, and allows for, for example, an objective to minimize the risk-adjusted value of the insurer’s liability, and for heterogeneous beliefs regarding the loss distribution by the insurer and reinsurer. Under a mild condition, we propose a backward-forward optimization method that is based on a marginal indemnity function formulation. To show the applicability and simplicity of our strategy, we provide three concrete examples with the Value-at-Risk: one with the risk-adjusted value of the insurer’s liability, one with an objective function that follows from imposing Pareto optimality, and one with heterogeneous beliefs. We conclude this paper with an empirical application with Danish fire insurance losses and the Value-at-Risk and the Tail Value-at-Risk.

No abstract available.

Between March and August 2020, S&P and Moody’s downgraded approximately 25$\%$ of collateral feeding into CLOs and only 2$\%$ of tranche values, with rating actions concentrating in junior tranches. Both S&P and Moody’s modeling indicate that the impacts should have been considerably larger, especially for higher-rated tranches. Neither changes in correlation nor the accumulation of pre-COVID-19 protective cushions can explain the downgrade asymmetry on upper tranches. Instead, CLO managers repositioned their collateral pools to dampen the negative credit shock and rating agencies incorporated qualitative adjustments in their CLO ratings. Important potential policy and market implications from these findings are discussed. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Results well known in the actuarial community about closed-form expressions to Gompertz and Gompertz-Makeham life expectancies for a person aged x are still being independently rediscovered to this day. This note seeks to acknowledge previous results about closed-form expressions to Gompertz-Makeham life expectancies, especially in the actuarial science field, hoping to stimulate interdisciplinarity and provide the background for further developments, especially since the derivation of closed-form expressions for life expectancy (and annuities) based on particular mortality laws are matters of interest for multiple fields such as actuarial science, biology, demography, statistics among others. Resumo Resultados bem conhecidos pela comunidade atuarial sobre expressões de forma fechada para esperança de vida de Gompertz e Gompertz-Makeham para uma pessoa de idade x ainda estão sendo redescobertos de forma independente nos dias atuais. Esta nota visa fornecer algum reconhecimento aos resultados anteriores sobre expressões de forma fechada para expectativa de vida de Gompertz e Gompertz-Makeham, especialmente no campo das ciências atuariais, na esperança de estimular a interdisciplinaridade e fornecer o pano de fundo para novos desenvolvimentos, em especial porque a derivação de expressões de forma fechadas para expectativa de vida (e anuidades) com base em leis de mortalidade despertam o interesse de várias áreas, como ciências atuariais, biologia, demografia, estatística, entre outras. Resumen Los resultados bien conocidos por la comunidad actuarial sobre las expresiones de forma cerrada de las esperanzas de vida de Gompertz y Gompertz-Makeham para una persona de edad x todavía se están redescubriendo de forma independiente en la actualidad. Esta nota pretende reconocer algunos resultados anteriores sobre expresiones cerradas para la esperanza de vida de Gompertz y Gompertz-Makeham, en especial en el campo de las ciencias actuariales, con la esperanza de fomentar la interdisciplinariedad y proporcionar el telón de fondo para futuros desarrollos, sobre todo desde que la derivación de expresiones cerradas para la esperanza de vida (y anualidades) basado en leyes de mortalidad despertó el interés de varias áreas, como las ciencias actuariales, biología, demografía, estadística, entre otras.

Variable annuities, the largest liability of U.S. life insurers, are investment products containing long-dated minimum return guarantees. I show that guarantees with similar economic risks are treated differently by regulation and these differences impact insurers’ hedging behavior. When the regulatory regime recognizes certain risks, insurers start to hedge these risks in a substantial way. For some guarantees, this involves hedging both interest rate and equity market risks. However, for others, it involves hedging only equity market risk. As the regulatory regime still does not recognize the interest rate risk of all guarantees, insurers remain exposed to substantial interest rate risk. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

The commentary by Patricia Hartgel in this issue makes an important contribution by summarizing recent issues regarding study participation. Her report underscores the need to evaluate the design approaches to the study and to find solutions that allow for analysis with sufficient confidence in the results. One approach to increasing the response rates is to examine the costs and benefits of adopting new procedures. Hartge describes a variety of approaches to increase the response rates, including incentives, use of advance letters, and multiple contacts. What also needs to be considered is the real-world budget constraints. Do the benefits of marginal increases as discussed by Hartge outweigh the costs? In terms of study design, the best approach may be to find a balance between study costs and the survey measures used to reduce nonparticipation. This balancing act requires serious examination of how a particular survey procedure will potentially improve data quality and whether such improvement is worth the associated costs. There are also other ways to limit costs and at the same time improve the response rate such as refusal subsampling (ie, recontacting a subsample of people who refused). A mail questionnaire with telephone follow up may be a more cost-effective approach than a single-mode design. A dual-frame approach for sampling may improve response rates and also be cheaper. Other approaches might include methodologic experiments and the conduct of a nonresponse bias survey. Epidemiologists, in general, should be encouraged to do a critical analysis of prior studies to see what really works and integrate that information with budgetary considerations to make wise decisions. Hartge correctly points out that the use of random digit dialing as a sampling frame is quickly becoming a tool of the past. One type of sampling frame recently available in the United States but not discussed in her commentary is the national listing of addresses available from the U.S. Postal Service (USPS). The file contains all delivery-point addresses serviced by the USPS, which allows contact of households without phones or with only cell phones. Link and colleagues2'3 found that using this sampling frame with appropriate follow up achieved a higher response rate than random digit dialing. This sampling frame has the added advantages of yielding a population more reflective of the general population at lower cost than random digit dialing and being adaptable to a mixed-mode approach. Clearly, tradeoffs in length and complexity of the questionnaire must be reflected against the needs of the survey. For a mail survey, it is also difficult to tightly control respondent selection within the targeted household. One approach would be to send a mailed questionnaire with core questions for everyone in the household, with telephone follow up for interview of nonresponders, or to ask additional questions of certain individuals. Whatever the design approach, an evaluation of this sampling frame and mode of interview would be of value to the epidemiologic community. Additionally, because there is an ongoing reluctance among the U.S. population to participate in studies, epidemiologists are faced with increased uncertainty about the performance of their study at any particular point in time. This problem requires careful monitoring and the ability to change the approach during the course of the data collection. Because mixed-mode approaches are the likely future of epidemiologic studies, the skills needed by epidemiologists are changing, and simply doing what worked in the past may not be good enough. Epidemiologists need to understand different methodologies and the

We analyze insurance demand experiments conducted in two different settings: in-person at a university laboratory and online using Amazon's Mechanical Turk crowdworking platform ("MTurk"). Subject demographics differ significantly across the samples, but average insurance demand is similar. However, MTurk subjects have more variation in their demand and react less to changes in exogenous factors of the insurance situation. Applying filters to the MTurk population does not lead to more comparable demand between both samples. Additionally, while MTurk subjects pass comprehension questions at the same rate as in-person subjects, they show more random behavior in other questions. Based on our experiment, we outline the advantages and disadvantages of each platform, suggest some best practices for conducting insurance demand experiments using MTurk, and draw implications for future studies using this subject population.

This paper models and investigates risk and security perception of metro travelers, in cases of malevolent, man-made incidents. Data is collected through an extensive survey in Athens, Greece; the survey includes an image-based stated-preference experiment, depicting different risk and security conditions. Econometric models are developed for estimating willingness to pay for mitigating perceived risk and for improving security in the Athens metro system. Results highlight the value that travelers attribute to improving security and avoiding threatening conditions in the Athens metro system, which is estimated to a 25%–30% of the system’s fare level. The paper provides useful insights on acceptable fare changes for improving security and risk perception in the Athens metro system.

Exploiting detailed disclosures mandated by Accounting Standard Codification (ASC) 820, we provide evidence for the return relevance of Level 3 fair value remeasurements for a comprehensive sample of U.S. listed banks. We find that Level 3 remeasurements recognized in earnings are more return relevant than those recognized in other comprehensive income (OCI). Our results suggest that Level 3 remeasurements in OCI partially reflect transitory illiquidity discounts that are less relevant when banks have the ability to hold the underlying assets. The regulatory capital treatment of OCI also affects the return relevance of Level 3 remeasurements in OCI. Importantly, we find no differences in the return relevance of realized versus unrealized Level 3 remeasurements in earnings, allaying concerns that investors perceive unrealized Level 3 remeasurements of lesser quality. Overall, our findings support the usefulness of the segregated disclosures of Level 3 fair value remeasurements. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text.

Objectives. To identify the association between Medicaid eligibility expansion and medical debt. Methods. We used difference-in-differences design to compare changes in medical debt for those gaining coverage through Louisiana’s Medicaid expansion with those in nonexpansion states. We matched individuals gaining Medicaid coverage because of Louisiana’s Medicaid expansion (n = 196 556) to credit report data on medical debt and compared them with randomly selected credit reports of those living in Southern nonexpansion state zip codes with high rates of uninsurance (n = 973 674). The study spanned July 2014 through July 2019. Results. One year after Louisiana Medicaid expansion, medical collections briefly rose before declining by 8.1 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI] = –0.107, –0.055; P ≤ .001), or 13.5%, by the third postexpansion year. Balances also briefly rose before falling by 0.621 log points (95% CI = –0.817, –0.426; P ≤ .001), or 46.3%. Conclusions. Louisiana’s Medicaid expansion was associated with a reduction in the medical debt load for those gaining coverage. These results suggest that future Medicaid eligibility expansions may be associated with similar improvements in the financial well-being of enrollees.

This book is a timely account of the relationship between the theory of ‘enterprise liability’ and a number of common law doctrines, principally vicarious liability. The account is timely because the dust has now begun to settle on the 1999 decision in Bazley v Curry, where the Supreme Court of Canada reformulated the law relating to the course of employment by seeking to put it on an ‘enterprise liability’ footing, a decision which in turn influenced the House of Lords’ approach to the same issue in Lister v Hesley Hall Ltd. According to the book’s author, Douglas Brodie, the invocation of enterprise liability can be seen as the common law’s response to contemporary concerns over the proper extent of corporate social responsibility, a claim he seeks to substantiate by a wide-ranging analysis of the inter-relationship between enterprise liability and the common law which is not limited to UK law but also makes extensive reference to authorities from Australia, Canada and the USA.

This research advances the hypothesis that female leaders – chief executive officers (CEOs), chairs, and directors – of a microfinance institution (MFI) give more priority to the poorest families in loan provision than male leaders do. We differentiate between a depth and a width dimension of financial inclusion. The data set is a unique global panel of MFIs collected from MFI raters’ reports. Our sample is also unique in the sense that about one-third of all MFIs have a female CEO. The problem of endogeneity for the female leader is resolved by running Heckman’s two-step endogenous dummy variable estimation with an instrument for the female leader. We find evidence of greater depth financial inclusion (smaller average loans, more gender bias) with a female leader but not for width financial inclusion (credit client growth). Female leaders exhibit greater altruism and greater competition avoidance but not greater risk aversion than male peers.

Background: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV has significantly reduced morbidity and mortality, but the drugs can be expensive. This study aims to estimate the lifetime cost of HIV management from the Australian healthcare perspective. Methods: A Markov cohort model, consisting of 21 health states based on CD4 count and line of ART, simulated disease progression over the lifetime of persons living with HIV. We reported costs using 2019 Australian dollars (A$) at a discount rate of 3·5% per annum. One-way sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of model inputs, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to calculate the 95% confidence intervals for the lifetime cost estimate. Findings: The average discounted lifetime cost of HIV management was A$282,093 [95% CI: $194,206 – 421,345]. The largest proportion of lifetime cost was due to ART (92%). The lifetime cost was most sensitive to third- and second-line ART costs, followed by the probability of failing third-line therapy for those with CD4 count

This paper adapts an actuarial mathematical model, built for the Italian public pension system, based on the law proposal 3035/2009 to the Accountant Pension Fund (CNPADC). The aim is to introduce a new philosophy pension highly correlated with the concept of adequacy for an ambitious social welfare; using the logic of the 3035/2009 proposal, which guarantees a minimum threshold for the replacement rate of the direct pension, this study provides a rigorous actuarial mathematical model that explains a sort of rate of contribution at a tendential equilibrium, in a pay-as-you-go pension system. This model reveals for which parameters it is possible to intervene to maintain the standard of living in retirement.

We use detailed assessments of CEO personalities to explore the nature of CEO overconfidence as it is commonly measured. Longholder, the option-based measure of CEO overconfidence introduced by Malmendier and Tate (2005a) and widely used in the behavioral corporate finance and economics literatures, is significantly related to several specific characteristics that are associated with overconfident individuals as well as individuals with lower ability. Similar relations hold for overconfidence measures based on CEOs’ earnings guidance. Investment-cash flow sensitivities are larger for both Longholder and less able CEOs. After controlling for ability and other characteristics, Longholder CEOs’ investments remain significantly more sensitive to cash flows. These results suggest that overconfidence, as measured by Longholder, is correlated with lower ability but still reflects empirically distinct aspects of overconfidence.

P2P lending is an increasingly prosperous financial market, where lenders can directly bid and invest on the loans posted by borrowers. However, when facing massive loan requests, it is very difficult and also boring for lenders to choose loan portfolios meeting their ideal expectations. Actually, when choosing loans, most lenders pursue the highest profit with the lowest risk as well as satisfying their hobbies. In this paper, we formalize a multi-objective optimization problem to help lenders select loan portfolios. Specifically, the recommending scenario in P2P lending is formulated as a multi-objective optimization problem, where two objective functions are designed for capturing lenders' multiple demands. On this basis, a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm based on return-risk management named MOEA-RRM is then proposed for the multi-objective optimization problem, which can help lenders choose loan portfolios to meet lenders' multiple demands. Furthermore, in MOEA-RRM, a decision space dimensionality reduction strategy and an initialization strategy are proposed to improve the performance of algorithm. Finally, experimental results on a real-world P2P lending data set demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed MOEA-RRM, i.e., the proposed approach can recommend the loan portfolio with a good trade-off between risk and return as well as satisfying the hobbies of lenders.

International audience

Patients depend on health insurance provided by the government systems, private systems, or both to utilize the high-priced healthcare expenses. This dependency on health insurance draws some healthcare service providers to commit insurance frauds. Although the number of such service providers is small, it is reported that the insurance providers lose billions of dollars every year due to frauds. In this paper, we formulate the fraud detection problem over a minimal, definitive claim data consisting of medical diagnosis and procedure codes. We present a solution to the fraudulent claim detection problem using a novel representation learning approach, which translates diagnosis and procedure codes into Mixtures of Clinical Codes (MCC). We also investigate extensions of MCC using Long Short Term Memory networks and Robust Principal Component Analysis. Our experimental results demonstrate promising outcomes in identifying fraudulent records.

Background In 2019, the total National Healthcare Expenditure (NHE) reached $3.8 trillion, or nearly 20% of the total Gross Domestic Product. This represents a 4-fold increase in its Gross Domestic Product share since 1960. Given the magnitude and growth of such expenditures, healthcare cost containment is central to the country's financial sustainability. Moreover, as Medicare represents nearly 20% of the total NHE, it is a primary target for piloting, implementing and scaling initiatives that reduce expenditures. Objective To assess trends in Medicare Physician Fee Schedule for Service (Part B) payments and utilization for Imaging relative to other services from 2009 through 2019. Materials and methods We conducted a retrospective observational study of annual expenditures and utilization of imaging services using data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Medicare Part B. Data was grouped according to the Berenson-Eggers Type of Service Classification. The values were adjusted for inflation and we calculated the annual changes and the compound annual growth rates and the price elasticity of supply. Results For the 10-year period, Imaging represented on average 8% of the total Medicare Part B expenditures, an equivalent of 1.4% of total Medicare expenditures or 0.05% of the NHE. While NHE, overall Medicare and overall Part B had positive growth rates of total expenditures, Imaging did not. Moreover, Imaging had the most negative CAGR compared to all other categories, including Drugs, Procedures, Evaluation and Management and Durable Medical Equipment. Conclusion Imaging did not contribute to the increase in Medicare Part B expenditures, and it might have been disproportionately affected by cost containment policies.

Some consumers lack the cash needed to pay for medical care. As a result, they either delay care until they can pay for it or they forgo the care altogether. To test for such a possibility, we study the distribution of monthly Social Security checks among Medicare Part D enrollees. When Social Security checks are distributed, prescription fills increase by 6-12 percent. In that sense, drug consumption of low-income Medicare recipients is "liquidity sensitive." We then study recipients who transition onto a program that eliminates copayments. When those recipients do not face copayments, their drug consumption becomes less liquidity sensitive. That finding implies that, beyond risk protection, generous insurance also provides recipients with the ability to consume healthcare when they need it rather than when they have cash. Further, we find that recipients whose drug consumption is most liquidity sensitive exhibit price elasticities of demand that are twice the size of the average elasticity, suggesting that more-generous insurance causes recipients both to re-time prescription filling and also to start filling prescriptions that they otherwise would not fill. We present a stylized model that uses this finding to call into question the conventional interpretation of demand-response to price as solely inefficient moral hazard.

This paper analyzes the impact that health indicators have upon an individual's trip and mode choices to out-patient care facilities. The study's focus is an out-patient trip to a health care facility and the source of data is the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) for 2011, 2013 and 2015. Based on a random utility framework, the study finds that making a trip to treat an illness or for a check-up increases the likelihood of an out-patient trip by 52 and 31 probability points, respectively. Out-patient visits for which insurance is not relevant, when the individual pays most of the out-of-pocket costs and when the facility is a public facility are also important factors. Diagnosed and other personal health factors have some but much more modest effects on one's trip choice. The analysis also identifies differential modal impacts of health indicators. A series of robustness tests generally confirms the results but also identifies areas for further research. Including a no-trip option, the biannual survey and infrequent out-patient trip-making mitigate endogeneity concerns. The analysis has broad health policy and transportation implications for an ageing population whose share is increasing.

While observers agree that courts function poorly in developing countries, a lack of data has limited our understanding of the causes of malfunction. We combine data from administrative records on severance cases filed in the Mexico City Labor Court with interventions that provide information to parties in randomly selected cases on predicted case outcomes and conciliation services. We first use the data to document a set of stylized facts about the functioning of the court. The interventions nearly double the overall settlement rate, but only when the plaintiff herself is present to receive the information directly. Administrative records from six months after the treatment indicate that the treatment effects remain unchanged over that period, even though an additional one in three cases in the control group settle in that period. The post-treatment results indicate that lawyers do not convey the information provided in the intervention to their clients. A simple analytic framework rationalizes the experimental results. Analysis of settlements induced by the interventions suggests that the provision of information is welfare-improving for the plaintiffs. The experimental results replicate over two phases conducted in different sub-courts, showing robustness.

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the relationship between firms’ decisions to expense employee stock options (ESOs) under the voluntary period of Statement of Financial Accounting Standard No. 123 (SFAS 123) and their market-to-book (MTB-1) ratio and conditional conservatism. Conservatism is chosen because, even though expensing of ESOs is a conservative accounting treatment, it is not obvious how the decision would be related to the MTB-1 ratio and conditional conservatism, particularly because the MTB-1 is a long-run measure of conservatism and the decision to voluntarily expense is examined over two years. The setting provides a unique opportunity to assess how two major proxies of conservatism are related. Design/methodology/approach – Using firms listed in the S&P 1500 index, firms that expensed ESOs are compared to firms that disclosed only in the financial statements. The main comparison uses a logistic regression. Findings – During the period when expensing ESOs was voluntary, SFAS 123, the MTB-1 ratio was negatively associated with ESO expense recognition, but conditional conservatism was positively associated with ESO expense recognition. The former is attributed to incentives of conservatism and the latter to the tenet of conservatism tending to reduce income. Research limitations/implications – The findings add to the literature/controversy on the negative relationship between the MTB-1 ratio and conditional conservatism. More important, they support using more than one measure of conservatism in studies that involve accounting conservatism. A limitation is that the findings are specific to voluntary ESO expense recognition. Originality/value – This is the first study to examine how conservatism affects the choice to recognize an item on the financial statements or disclosure only. In addition, the study shows that firms were willing to incur real costs from their financial reporting.

Stock option valuations have long been studied, being inherently non-linear financial derivatives. These instruments have a ubiquitous presence in institutional investment practice, and present many favourable and unique benefits to an investment portfolio. Neural Networks on the other hand have become a more familiar concept in recent times. They are by design set to deal with complex, non-linear classification and prediction tasks. Using Neural Networks to predict stock option prices has been studied at length, by various authors in the last 30 years. These studies have considered their relative performance against closed-form pricing solutions like the infamous Black-Scholes-Merton model, as well as in real-world settings. The collective conclusion that is deduced from past literature presents a clear case for their use in finance, albeit that there are some notable pitfalls, like the lack of interpretability and the ability to explicitly enforce certain constraints. Constraints such as option price bounds (upper and lower) and the Put-Call parity, that a stock option's value should satisfy have not been considered in many prior studies. This dissertation sets out to study stock option valuations using Neural Networks with techniques to enforce constraints. First, a functional and appropriately performing Neural Network configuration is derived that outputs European call and put option prices under one model. Thereafter, enforcement of the lower, upper and relative bounds (Put-Call parity) is incorporated into the model. Finally, the Neural Network application is extended to the real-world setting. The performance of the Neural Network model is assessed by means of mean error, as well as percentiles.

In a dual risk model, the premiums are considered as the costs and the claims are regarded as the profits. The surplus can be interpreted as the wealth of a venture capital, whose profits depend on research and development. In most of the existing literature of dual risk models, the profits follow the compound Poisson model and the cost is constant. In this paper, we develop a state-dependent dual risk model, in which the arrival rate of the profits and the costs depend on the current state of the wealth process. Ruin probabilities are obtained in closed-forms. Further properties and results will also be discussed., Comment: 20 pages, 3 figures

Multi-vehicle traffic collisions usually result in increased injury severities to the more vulnerable drivers involved in those accidents. This research study aims at investigating the temporal trends and risks imposed by different driver groups on other drivers using logistic regression. The study is based on analysing accident data for all light-duty two-vehicle collisions in North Carolina from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2013. Two logistic regression models are developed for each year. The first model, evaluates the probability that a certain driver sustains at least a visible injury caused by the other driver and the second model, evaluates the probability that a driver will cause at least a visible injury to the other driver. The findings of this research may help decision makers identify driver groups that are more dangerous to other drivers so that necessary precautionary measures can be adopted to make our roads a safer place.

To coordinate Medicare and Medicaid benefits, multiple states are creating opportunities for dual-eligible beneficiaries to join Medicare Advantage Dual-Eligible Special Needs Plans (D-SNPs) and Medicaid plans operated by the same insurer. Tennessee implemented this approach by requiring insurers who offered Medicaid plans to also offer a D-SNP by 2015. Tennessee’s aligned D-SNP participation increased from 7% to 24% of dual-eligible beneficiaries aged 65 years and above between 2011 and 2017. Within a county, a 10-percentage-point increase in aligned D-SNP participation was associated with 0.3 fewer inpatient admissions ( p = .048), 13.9 fewer prescription drugs per month ( p = .048), and 0.3 fewer nursing home users ( p = .06) per 100 dual-eligible beneficiaries aged 65 years and older. Increased aligned plan participation was associated with 0.2 more inpatient admissions ( p = .004) per 100 dual-eligible beneficiaries younger than 65 years. For some dual-eligible beneficiaries, increasing Medicare and Medicaid managed plan alignment has the potential to promote more efficient service use.

This study examines how taxpayer level of goal congruence (the extent to which a taxpayer’s interests align with the interests of the tax collecting agency) can improve tax compliance. While there is ample evidence on the deterrent effect of audit probability on taxpayer noncompliance, there is no evidence related to the potential role that goal congruence may have on compliance behavior. Results of our study indicate that goal congruence influences taxpayer compliance decisions, in that those with higher goal congruence (i.e., greater support for how tax dollars are spent) report higher amounts of taxable income. In addition, we find that audit probability only influences taxpayer compliance decisions when there is support for the government’s use of tax dollars. When taxpayers do not support government programs, their compliance is lower regardless of the audit probability. This highlights the importance of gaining taxpayer support for government programs, and that attempts to align the goals of taxpayers with those of the government may increase voluntary compliance among taxpayers. We also examine the role that Machiavellianism, a measure of moral obligation, plays in taxpayers’ compliance decisions. We find that for certain individuals who are motivated more by self-interest (those with high Machiavellianism), a high audit rate as well as support for a program may be necessary to improve compliance behavior. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

This paper aims to find the actuarial tables that best represent the occurrences of mortality and disability in the Brazilian Armed Forces, thus providing a better dimensioning of the costs of military pensions to be paid by the pension system. To achieve this goal, an optimization software was developed that tests 53 actuarial tables for the death of valid military personnel, 21 boards for entry into the disability of assets, and 21 boards for mortality of invalids. The software performs 199 distinct adherence tests for each table analyzed through linear aggravations and de-escalations in the probabilities of death and disability. The statistical–mathematical method used was the chi-square adherence test in which the selected table is the one with the null hypothesis “observed data” equal to the “expected data” with the highest degree of accuracy. It is expected to bring a significant contribution to society, as a model of greater accuracy reduces the risk of a large difference between the projected cost and the cost observed on the date of the year, thus contributing to the maintenance of public governance. Additionally, the unprecedented and dual nature of the methodology presented here stands out. As a practical contribution, we emphasize that the results presented streamline the calculation of actuarial projections, reducing by more than 90% the processing times of calculations referring to actuarial projections of retirees from the armed forces. As a limitation of the study, we emphasize that, although possibly replicable, the database was restricted only to the Brazilian Armed Forces.

International and U.S. accounting standards mandate a one-step quantitative impairment test for goodwill and other indefinite-lived intangibles, but U.S. standards allow an optional qualitative assessment before the quantitative test. This option is intended to reduce the complexity and costs of the quantitative test. We demonstrate that U.S. firms using this option have comparatively higher valuations and face higher expected costs for conducting quantitative tests. Using a difference-in-differences research design, we show that firms using this option have a marginally higher incidence of impairments, suggesting that the qualitative assessment does not systematically allow companies to avoid write-downs. Moreover, we do not find clear evidence that using this option decreases the timeliness of impairments or increases monitoring costs for auditors, regulators, and investors. Our study provides evidence about the consequences of a revised impairment approach and speaks to the broader issue of allowing unconditional options and qualitative judgments in financial reporting. Data Availability: Data are available from public sources identified in the text. Hand-collected data are available upon request. JEL Classifications: M41; M42; M48.

Shari’ah mutual funds has its own charm than other types of mutual funds. Shari’ah mutual funds is not limited only to Muslims as the general public, who are already seeing the benefits of investment that is based on the choice of sector and company specific criteria more promising and minimize risk. Islamic mutual funds are able to contribute the confidence of investors amounted to 3.31% in 2011, 4.31% in 2012 and 3.79% in 2013. So the value of the confidence of investors on mutual fund products sharia to 2013 is still around 3-4% . As for growth on Islamic mutual funds into one of the capital market products showed an increase in value in 2012 amounted to 3.79% later in the year 2013 to 4.32%. Investment portfolio management works based framework (framework) for investment management which covers the planning, implementation, evaluation, and adjustment. In mutual funds, investment managers responsible for investment activities, which includes the analysis and selection of investment types, and perform the necessary actions for the benefit of investors. Form of mutual fund performance measurement Shari’ah assessed net asset value (NAV) of the sub weekly. Showed a good performance rekasadana Shari’ah when in a period of return obtained is more positive. Keywords ; Reksadana Syari’ah, Manajemen Portofolio, Nilai Aktiva Bersih (NAB)

In the present work, we study the problem of optimal management of defined contribution pension funds, during the distribution phase, under the effect of inflation, mortality and model uncertainty. More precisely, we consider a class of employees, who, at the time of retirement, enter a life assurance contract with the same insurance firm. The fund manager of the firm collects the entry fees to a portfolio savings account and this wealth is to be invested optimally in a Black–Scholes type financial market. As such schemes usually last for many years, we extend our framework, by: (i) augmenting the financial market with an inflation-adjusted bond, and, (ii) taking into account mortality of the fund members. Model uncertainty aspects are introduced as the fund manager does not fully trust the model he/she faces. By resorting to robust control and dynamic programming techniques, we provide: (a) closed-form solutions for the case of the exponential utility function, (b) a detailed study of the qualitative features of the problem at hand that elucidates the effect of robustness and inflation on the optimal investment decisions.

International audience; Prevention efforts, such as quitting smoking, flu vaccination, and exercising, are of crucial importance in health policy, but people tend to undertake too few of them. The main reason is that most prevention efforts only reduce but do not completely eliminate the risk of poor health. This makes it harder for people to assess the benefits of prevention, because they tend to misperceive and transform probabilities. In “When Risk Perception Gets in the Way: Probability Weighting and Underprevention,” Baillon et al. introduce psychological insights (probability weighting) in a model of optimal decision making and show that most people undertake too little prevention when the risk of poor health is between 10% and 80%. The paper discusses several policy measures to make people spend more on prevention.