1. Identification of patients at risk of sudden cardiac death in congenital heart disease: The PRospEctiVE study on implaNTable cardIOverter defibrillator therapy and suddeN cardiac death in Adults with Congenital Heart Disease (PREVENTION-ACHD)
- Author
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Joris R. de Groot, Louise Harris, Isabelle C. Van Gelder, Maarten Groenink, Werner Budts, Barbara J.M. Mulder, Aeilko H. Zwinderman, Jan M. Leerink, Zeliha Koyak, José M. Oliver, Rafael Peinado Peinado, Daniëlle Robbers-Visser, Jim T. Vehmeijer, Robbert J. de Winter, Berto J. Bouma, Erwin Oechslin, S. Matthijs Boekholdt, Graduate School, ACS - Heart failure & arrhythmias, ARD - Amsterdam Reproduction and Development, Epidemiology and Data Science, APH - Methodology, Cardiology, ACS - Atherosclerosis & ischemic syndromes, ACS - Pulmonary hypertension & thrombosis, APH - Aging & Later Life, APH - Personalized Medicine, and Cardiovascular Centre (CVC)
- Subjects
Male ,Cardiac & Cardiovascular Systems ,Heart disease ,medicine.medical_treatment ,030204 cardiovascular system & hematology ,Sudden cardiac death ,Coronary artery disease ,0302 clinical medicine ,Risk Factors ,Adult congenital heart disease ,Prospective Studies ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Netherlands ,Cause of death ,Framingham Risk Score ,Ejection fraction ,Primary prevention ,Incidence ,Middle Aged ,Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator ,Defibrillators, Implantable ,Survival Rate ,Cardiology ,Female ,Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine ,Life Sciences & Biomedicine ,Adult ,Heart Defects, Congenital ,medicine.medical_specialty ,PREDICTION MODEL ,Risk Assessment ,03 medical and health sciences ,Physiology (medical) ,Internal medicine ,medicine ,Humans ,cardiovascular diseases ,Risk stratification ,ARRHYTHMIAS ,Science & Technology ,business.industry ,MORTALITY ,medicine.disease ,Death, Sudden, Cardiac ,Heart failure ,Cardiovascular System & Cardiology ,Risk score ,business ,Follow-Up Studies - Abstract
BACKGROUND: Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the main preventable cause of death in patients with adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). Since robust risk stratification methods are lacking, we developed a risk score model to predict SCD in patients with ACHD: the PRospEctiVE study on implaNTable cardIOverter defibrillator therapy and suddeN cardiac death in Adults with Congenital Heart Disease (PREVENTION-ACHD) risk score model. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to prospectively study predicted SCD risk using the PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model and actual SCD and sustained ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF) rates in patients with ACHD. METHODS: The PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model assigns 1 point each to coronary artery disease, New York Heart Association class II/III heart failure, supraventricular tachycardia, systemic ejection fraction < 40%, subpulmonary ejection fraction < 40%, QRS duration ≥ 120 ms, and QT dispersion ≥ 70 ms. SCD risk was calculated for each patient. An annual predicted risk of ≥3% constituted high risk. The primary outcome was SCD or VT/VF after 2 years. The secondary outcome was SCD. RESULTS: The study included 783 consecutive patients with ACHD (n=239 (31%) left-sided lesions; n=138 (18%) tetralogy of Fallot; n=108 (14%) closed atrial septal defect; median age 36 years; interquartile range 28-47 years; n=401 (51%) men). The PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model identified 58 high-risk patients. Eight patients (4 at high risk) experienced the primary outcome. The Kaplan-Meier estimates were 7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.1%-13.3%) in the high-risk group and 0.6% (95% CI 0.0%-1.1%) in the low-risk group (hazard ratio 12.5; 95% CI 3.1-50.9; P < .001). The risk score model's sensitivity was 0.5 and specificity 0.93, resulting in a C-statistic of 0.75 (95% CI 0.57-0.90). The hazard ratio for SCD was 12.4 (95% CI 1.8-88.1) (P = .01); the sensitivity and specificity were 0.5 and 0.92, and the C-statistic was 0.81 (95% CI 0.67-0.95). CONCLUSION: The PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model provides greater accuracy in SCD or VT/VF risk stratification as compared with current guideline indications and identifies patients with ACHD who may benefit from preventive implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation. ispartof: HEART RHYTHM vol:18 issue:5 pages:785-792 ispartof: location:United States status: published
- Published
- 2021